Billboard Chart Projection (Last Updated: 10/8)

I’ve been working on this chart for awhile now, and I thought I would share it with everyone. I can update it daily if there’s enough interest.

The chart basically predicts the audience a song will have on Billboard. The ratio columns (J, K, L, M) give the ratios of certain songs with respect to Mediabase and Billboard. I then take the average of the ratios and multiply it by the current Mediabase audience (column N) to predict the Billboard audience. For some songs I don’t use all the different ratios. For example, “Lost In This Moment” has ratios of .980, .900, and .963. Since the .900 ratio is much lower than the other two, I do not include it.

I usually don’t fill out the Proj. BB Aud. (Projected Billboard Audience) column until Sunday, so that column will usually be empty. The only column I update daily is the MB Aud. TW column (Mediabase Audience This Week). Currently the numbers in the BB Aud. LW (Billboard Audience Last Week) column are my predicted audience numbers from last week. Those will be updated Wednesday when the new chart is published.

I’m probably leaving a lot of things unanswered, but I’ll gladly respond to any questions that are out there. This first post is basically for me to find out if there would be any interest in a daily update of this chart.

I'm interested! :)

just have 3 suggestions:

1) the "projected bb audience", since that is really the most important column as it determines next weeks rankings, would be good if it were the next column after "weeks on".

2) sort the songs by "projected bb audience" for reason stated above.

3) have a line running across after like every 5 songs to make the lines more readable as they kinda flow together the way it reads now across.

ok....just suggestions....thx

Updated for today. Sorry for the delay, I was gone for a few days.

Again, because of the Mediabase/Country Aircheck panel change, it's tough to get a feel of how some songs are moving. For example, I tweaked the formula for "Because Of You." A couple of the stations that were dropped from the Mediabase panel had that song in heavy rotation, so that it will be affected by that change more than other songs.



1. I like having the projected BB Aud. column toward the end so I can see all the data that is going into making that projection (if that makes any sense). I see your point though, and maybe I'll change it if enough people feel strongly about that.

2. I like having the songs sorted by the current Billboard chart. That way you get a feel of how many positions a song could gain for next wee.

3. Good suggestion, I'll use that one.

I noticed here how Tim/Faith have gained audience with "I Need You" even though Mediabase has them without a bullet. More prove that bullets are very deceiving.

this could b the 1st week that your calculations get put to the test, since u started posting this chart, for determining #1 as george still has the lead on the mediabase chart....good luck lol....should b cool to watch the outcome.

nice....u were rite with b&r getting #1 and t&f getting #10....congrats to u & the chart....um any early super bowl predictions as well lol....ive got colts over cowboys in a close 1 !!!

with big&rich looking like a lock for #1 again this week it looks like the top 10 battle will be if bucky can bump tim&faith for the #10 spot.

Bout damn time too. Thanks. I am happy with what I see :)

BOY had abysmal days mid-week with a spin count on Tuesday that was the lowest number of daily spins in almost two weeks. It's been trending back upward the past couple of days but that upward trend isn't noticeable yet because of how bad it did midweek. If the Friday and Saturday trend continue, its bullet will get back close to 300 when last week's dreadful Tuesday and Wednesday numbers are erased.

I guess it's technically not the projected Billboard audience gain/loss since the Billboard week goes from Monday to Sunday, but I've found that it usually evens out by Sunday. So to answer your question, the column represents the gain/loss from Sunday to Saturday, more like Mediabase.

The Billboard week is actually Saturday to Saturday. You'll notice that the chart closes on Sunday with Saturday's numbers.

I don't know about that Zazie. The Billboard charts are dated on Saturdays. And BDS and Mediabase run the exact same with the only difference being the reporting panels, as far as I'm aware. And if it runs Sat-Sat you get the 7 day week.

Yeah, the Real Time Tracker. That was up to the minute. So of course it would reset on Sundays. It changed every week. I'm almost positive on this one, but for kicks, I'll email Wade Jessen. :)