Cerbius
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Post by Cerbius on Sept 15, 2011 20:16:25 GMT -5
I'm glad Lady Antebellum's numbers are adjusted higher. Here's to hoping they end up with 350k, which isn't as drastic of a drop compared to their last effort as was first predicted.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Sept 15, 2011 23:53:00 GMT -5
if 1 scans around 40K, that would be a 33% drop.
Hopefully Lady A. finishes above 300K, as projected. Ain't no stopping the Adele train- expect 21 to chug along through year's end and beyond.
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Agent Yoncé
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Sept 16, 2011 0:11:34 GMT -5
I feel this follow up is too close to "Need You Know." & so far it's not strong enough. These are fairly decents #s, seeing how they don't have a huge hit right now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2011 6:46:07 GMT -5
Beatles - 1 will pass The Bodygaurd soundtrack as the 5th biggest album of the Soundscan era on this chart
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jgizzle89
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Post by jgizzle89 on Sept 16, 2011 9:58:20 GMT -5
lil wayne is starting to underperform... he'll still be at 1.3 million after 3 weeks, which is good, but i think he was closer to 1.6 when he released tha carter 3 by the third week.
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slw84
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Post by slw84 on Sept 16, 2011 11:54:58 GMT -5
lil wayne is starting to underperform... he'll still be at 1.3 million after 3 weeks, which is good, but i think he was closer to 1.6 when he released tha carter 3 by the third week.  |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2011 12:09:40 GMT -5
Haha, no surprise on Lady A. I KNEW their numbers would be higher. Not that the intitial 275-300k estimate was bad or anything, but HITS has been severely underestimating country albums all summer. Eric Church or Luke Bryan, anyone?  |
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pnobelysk
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Post by pnobelysk on Sept 18, 2011 18:39:16 GMT -5
I think the Lady A album will do 2 million when said and done, which all things considered would be a nice result. Hopefully they score a pop hit or two with this album I thought Just a Kiss crossed over? It's starting to cross over right now, its not a pop hit yet, but it ll prbly end up performing moderatley there |
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pnobelysk
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Post by pnobelysk on Sept 18, 2011 18:42:31 GMT -5
As I said before, Lady Antebellum just set themselves up for ridiculously high expectations to live up to, and if these numbers are of any indication...........they're just not going to live up to them. These numbers are by no means awful, or even bad necessarily...........but what they do say is that Lady Antebellum's audience is largely unsustainable. Much of it flocked to the breakout success of the single of the same name from "Need You Now"............and when much the rest of their material runs in this all-too-familiar adult contemporary/light rock vein that has been done numerous times to death before...........how can you expect to maintain a large commercial following in the long haul? I wouldn't panic looking at these numbers, but I would be disappointed. Especially considering "Need You Now" was a January release, and that the sales remained steady due to the monstrous success of the title track. Without anything remotely resembling a hit of that magnitude, only further Country hits can ensure any form of staying power for this album (and I still doubt "American Honey" and "Our Kind Of Love" did all that much for "Need You Now", as both were quickly forgotten about). I'm wondering if "Own The Night" will even sell a third of what "Need You Now" has sold at this point. Namaste, lisping HIBISCUS This sitatuion really reminds me of Carrie. Her first album had BHC as the smash breakout hit which REALLY drove her sales (as well as being on the idol bus). Her 2nd album didnt have any big pop hits, but it still did very well, and her country fanbase remained loyal. This reminds me of Lady Antebellum, they might never match the success of their second album, but they still have a following, a good one at that. They have simialr sales to Carrie, its just they debuted at a later time with a worser sales climate, where besides maybe Adele and Tswift we will never see another 7 million seller again |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2011 19:05:38 GMT -5
Never say never - digital sales are picking up
Album sales will continue to climb back up, with that, more 7 million sellers besides Adele and Taylor Swift
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2011 19:22:55 GMT -5
No Beyonce, Lady Gaga, Mumford & Sons, Maroon 5 or Katy Perry. I expect 15-20k for those. |
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iamthelaw
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Post by iamthelaw on Sept 18, 2011 22:07:51 GMT -5
lil wayne is starting to underperform... he'll still be at 1.3 million after 3 weeks, which is good, but i think he was closer to 1.6 when he released tha carter 3 by the third week. the album doesn't live up to the hype. |
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guyl44
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Post by guyl44 on Sept 19, 2011 10:04:57 GMT -5
^ Also, TC3 had a much bigger hit to support it (let alone critical acclaim).
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 19, 2011 10:42:53 GMT -5
I can't believe people are COMPLAINING about the level of success of Tha Carter IV. It's like BTW all over again. Yea what a massive letdown... Both Weezy and Gaga should quit as nobody seems to be interested |
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Arabella21
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Post by Arabella21 on Sept 19, 2011 12:48:36 GMT -5
CHART DATE: 09/19/2011
LAST UPDATE: 09/19/2011 10:42:49
NOW IN: 54.02%
LW TW artist / album label power index
-- 1 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 215,001
OWN THE NIGHT
2 2 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 104,835
21
1 3 LIL WAYNE CASH MONEY/UNIV REPUBLIC 51,158
THA CARTER IV
3 4 GEORGE STRAIT MCA NASHVILLE 32,065
HERE FOR A GOOD TIME
-- 5 STAIND ATLANTIC 18,880
STAIND
8 6 NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 39 CAPITOL/EMI 18,412
VARIOUS ARTISTS
10 7 JASON ALDEAN BROKEN BOW 18,383
MY KINDA PARTY
13 8 LUKE BRYAN CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 16,183
TAILGATES & TANLINES
5 9 RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS WARNER BROS. 14,228
I'M WITH YOU
6 10 JAY Z & KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/ROC NATION 13,665
WATCH THE THRONE
9 11 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 11,852
4
-- 12 DREAM THEATER ROADRUNNER 11,757
DRAMATIC TURN OF EVENTS
-- 13 ANTHRAX MEGAFORCE RECORDS 10,648
WORSHIP MUSIC
14 14 JAKE OWEN RCA NASHVILLE 10,279
BAREFOOT BLUE JEAN NIGHT
23 15 ERIC CHURCH CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 10,009
CHIEF
-- 16 ALICE COOPER UME 9,941
WELCOME 2 MY NIGHTMARE
29 17 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 9,625
RED RIVER BLUE
16 18 LADY GAGA INTERSCOPE 8,611
BORN THIS WAY
36 19 JACKIE EVANCHO COLUMBIA 8,119
DREAM WITH ME
-- 20 BUSH ZUMA ROCK 8,110
THE SEA OF MEMORIES
12 21 FOSTER THE PEOPLE STARTIME/COLUMBIA 7,882
TORCHES
4 22 BEATLES CAPITOL/EMI 7,752
1
-- 23 DEVIL WEARS PRADA FERRET RECORDS 7,331
DEAD THRONE
20 24 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 7,212
19
-- 25 PRIMUS ATO 7,123
GREEN NAUGAHYDE
25 26 LE'ANDRIA JOHNSON MUSIC WORLD 7,058
AWAKENING OF LE'ANDRIA JOHNSON
49 27 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 6,919
NEED YOU NOW
32 28 KIDZ BOP KIDS RAZOR & TIE 6,808
KIDZ BOP 20
11 29 KATY PERRY CAPITOL/EMI 6,634
TEENAGE DREAM
30 30 BRAD PAISLEY ARISTA NASHVILLE 6,573
THIS IS COUNTRY MUSIC
33 31 THE BAND PERRY UNIV REPUBLIC NASHVILLE 6,437
THE BAND PERRY
21 32 GERARDO ORTIZ SONY MUSIC LATIN 6,207
ENTRE DIOS Y EL DIABLO
48 33 JUSTIN MOORE VALORY 6,146
OUTLAWS LIKE ME
27 34 SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE HOLLYWOOD 5,914
WHEN THE SUN GOES DOWN
38 35 NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 38 CAPITOL/EMI 5,542
VARIOUS ARTISTS
34 36 ZAC BROWN BAND ATLANTIC 5,339
YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE
31 37 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 5,299
SPEAK NOW
39 38 VICTORIOUS FEAT/VICTORIA JUSTICE NICKELODEON/COLUMBIA 5,131
SOUNDTRACK
43 39 ELI YOUNG BAND UNIV REPUBLIC NASHVILLE 4,882
LIFE AT BEST
17 40 BAD MEETS EVIL SHADY/INTERSCOPE 4,828
HELL: THE SEQUEL
19 41 GAME INTERSCOPE 4,744
R.E.D. ALBUM
7 42 MAROON 5 A&M/OCTONE 4,181
HANDS ALL OVER
15 43 BARBRA STREISAND COLUMBIA 3,995
WHAT MATTERS MOST
47 44 SHAKE IT UP: BREAK IT DOWN WALT DISNEY 3,955
SOUNDTRACK
37 45 BRUNO MARS NEW ELEKTRA 3,834
DOO-WOPS & HOOLIGANS
40 46 RIHANNA DEF JAM/IDJ 3,746
LOUD
-- 47 KRISTIN CHENOWETH SONY MASTERWORKS 3,373
SOME LESSONS LEARNED
42 48 NICKI MINAJ YM/CM/UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 3,306
PINK FRIDAY
24 49 MUMFORD & SONS GLASSNOTE 2,961
SIGH NO MORE
-- 50 WE CAME AS ROMANS EQUAL VISION 2,829
UNDERSTANDING WHAT WE'VE GROWN
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Mike
Diamond Member
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Posts: 15,873
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Post by Mike on Sept 19, 2011 13:23:00 GMT -5
Damn, only 54% in and Adele has already reached the low end of their predictions. I know she probably won't gain more than 15-20K by the final update, but that's still insane!
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Sept 19, 2011 17:08:18 GMT -5
Another 100K week for Adele and 300K plus for Lady Antebellum is excellent to me. Sure, they sold nearly 500K in Q4 with their last cd, but it isn't easy to maintain 300K plus openings all the time. Good number.
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layne
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Post by layne on Sept 19, 2011 17:12:41 GMT -5
What was the opening final number for Lady A? anyone know?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2011 17:34:32 GMT -5
"Need You Now" debuted in January, not Q4; which actually makes their debut (481k) even more impressive.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2011 18:13:25 GMT -5
13-Feb-10
01 480922 NEED YOU NOW Lady Antebellum
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Sept 19, 2011 19:04:59 GMT -5
I meant Q1-I was thinking January/February but typed 4 for some reason. Thanks for correcting because it IS a lot more impressive.
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beebee
Gold Member
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Posts: 914
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Post by beebee on Sept 19, 2011 20:19:15 GMT -5
I believe Adele will sell 100 k weekly until January...SLY smashing on radio is helping to sell the album obviously.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 19, 2011 22:16:52 GMT -5
What labels expect the following artists to sell in their debut weeks:
Tony Bennett 150k
Young Jeezy 187k
Demi Lovato 109k
Chickenfoot 190k
Blink 182 119k
Wilco 111k
May J Blige 182k
Scott McCreery 128k
Evanescence 175k
Casting Crowns 120k
Pia Toscano 117k
Kelly Clarkson 250k
Coldplay 476k
Drake 694k
Susan Boyle 300k
Miranda Lambert 175k
50 Cent 243k
Il Divo 100k
Robin Thicke 112k
Akon 208k
Florence and The Machine 178k
Andrea Boccelli 125k
Michael Jackson Cirque Du Soleil 250k
Monica 150k
All American Rejects 117k
Will this amount to a successful 4th Quarter? We'll see...
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2011 22:23:44 GMT -5
Drake 694k
Wouldn't be surprised with this or more. He will definitely top TML I think.
50 Cent 243k
Nope.
Akon 208k
Hmm, idts.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2011 22:32:16 GMT -5
What labels expect the following artists to sell in their debut weeks: Tony Bennett 150k Young Jeezy 187k Demi Lovato 109k Chickenfoot 190k Blink 182 119k Wilco 111k May J Blige 182k Scott McCreery 128k Evanescence 175k Casting Crowns 120k Pia Toscano 117k Kelly Clarkson 250k Coldplay 476k Drake 694k Susan Boyle 300k Miranda Lambert 175k 50 Cent 243k Il Divo 100k Robin Thicke 112k Akon 208k Florence and The Machine 178k Andrea Boccelli 125k Michael Jackson Cirque Du Soleil 250k Monica 150k All American Rejects 117k Will this amount to a successful 4th Quarter? We'll see... Where do you get these? (not that I don't believe you..just wondering). Some of these seem very surprising. I wouldn't be surprised if most were overestimated. I mean I love Florence but does her label really think she will debut that high? And Pia only 10,000 under Scotty even without a hit single? Seems confusing. |
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kml567
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Posts: 972
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Post by kml567 on Sept 19, 2011 22:35:28 GMT -5
What labels expect the following artists to sell in their debut weeks: Tony Bennett 150k Young Jeezy 187k Demi Lovato 109k Chickenfoot 190k Blink 182 119k Wilco 111k May J Blige 182k Scott McCreery 128k Evanescence 175k Casting Crowns 120k Pia Toscano 117k Kelly Clarkson 250k Coldplay 476k Drake 694k Susan Boyle 300k Miranda Lambert 175k 50 Cent 243k Il Divo 100k Robin Thicke 112k Akon 208k Florence and The Machine 178k Andrea Boccelli 125k Michael Jackson Cirque Du Soleil 250k Monica 150k All American Rejects 117k Will this amount to a successful 4th Quarter? We'll see... Where did you get these estimates? Or are these your personal estimates? Almost all of them are way too high! :o This is shaping up to be one of the weakest Q4 in recent memory. Only Susan Boyle at 300k sounds about right. Everyone else needs to be adjusted down by 25% at least. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2011 22:36:06 GMT -5
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Sept 19, 2011 22:46:48 GMT -5
Yeah some of these are a bit too high. Are these from shipment numbers?
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2011 22:57:33 GMT -5
Some of those numbers are getting pretty precise for an album not released yet. Why would a label say "I expect Coldplay to sell 476,000?" - for example
Why not 472,000 or 481,000?
or even 475,693 for that matter?
Sounds like random numbers from a fan site coming out of thin air.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2011 22:59:12 GMT -5
Here are my thoughts on those predictions:
Tony Bennett 150k - I would not be suprised if it trended upwards of 200K.
Young Jeezy 187k - Seriously? I don't think he'll do 100K his first week to be honest.
Demi Lovato 109k - I could see her trending upwards to 150K since Skyscraper is already her biggest solo hit on the radio.
Chickenfoot 190k - I can't really comment since I really have never heard of them.
Blink 182 119k - I have no clue where they'll end up since they have been gone for a while. I could see them doing anything from 80K to 150K in their first week so this predictions seems right.
Wilco 111k - Another artist I've never heard of.
Mary J Blige 182k - This seems about right. Even though she doesn't have a successful single out, she always has a nice start due to her loyal fanbase.
Scott McCreery 128k - I see him doing between 80K-105K to be honest.
Evanescence 175k - I wouldn't be shocked if they sold under 100K. The early leak plus the lack of interest in the lead single doesn't really bode well but they could do a little over 100K with their fanbase.
Casting Crowns 120k - Yet another artist I have never heard of.
Pia Toscano 117k - They are overestimating yet another idol contestant. I see her selling in the 55-70K range.
Kelly Clarkson 250k - I think this is as high as her sales would trend upward but I'm expecting an amount closer to 200K.
Coldplay 476k - This seems like it's in the right area but I would put them closer to 400K.
Drake 694k - I see this doing similar to his debut full album in the 500K area.
Susan Boyle 300k - This seems about right.
Miranda Lambert 175k - Another good guess in my opinion.
50 Cent 243k - I really don't see him doing half of that. He'll be lucky to sell over 100K in his first week.
Il Divo 100k - I've never heard of this artist.
Robin Thicke 112k - Another logical guess. With another urban smash he could trend upward to 150K.
Akon 208k - I don't see this doing more than 80K.
Florence and The Machine 178k - She is talented but I don't see her and her band doing more than 100K.
Andrea Boccelli 125k - This sounds about right.
Michael Jackson Cirque Du Soleil 250k - I think this could do anywhere between 175K-275K.
Monica 150k - I see this just scrapping by 100K.
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