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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2011 23:40:14 GMT -5
Technically, the 11/26 chart was the last one of the 2011 chart year, but I figured we'd better have a new thread for 2012 chart predictions. I've been the only one doing them lately, but if anyone wants to make chart predictions, this is the place to make 'em!
Here's how it's looking for the 12/24 chart on Monday:
1) Zac Brown Band – “Keep Me In Mind” 2) Jason Aldean – “Tattoos On This Town” 3) Lady Antebellum – “We Owned The Night” 4-5) Rascal Flatts (with Natasha Bedingfield) – “Easy” 4-5) David Nail – “Let It Rain” 6-7) Eric Church – “Drink In My Hand” 6-7) Luke Bryan – “I Don’t Want This Night To End” 8) Miranda Lambert – “Baggage Claim” (last week) 9) Chris Young – “You” 10) The Band Perry – “All Your Life” 11) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 12) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” 13-14) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 13-14) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 15-16) Hunter Hayes – “Storm Warning” 15-16) Brad Paisley – “Camouflage” 17) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” 18) Eden’s Edge – “Amen” 19) Justin Moore – “Bait A Hook” 20) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 21) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 22) Sara Evans – “My Heart Can’t Tell You No” 23) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 24) James Wesley – “Didn’t I?” 25) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 26) Faith Hill – “Come Home” 27-29) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 27-29) Billy Currington – “Like My Dog” 27-29) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 30) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 31) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 32) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 33) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 34) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 35-37) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 35-37) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 35-37) Sunny Sweeney – “Drink Myself Single” 38) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 39-40) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 39-40) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 41) Trace Adkins – “Million Dollar View” 42-43) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 42-43) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 44) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 45) The JaneDear Girls – “Merry Go Round” 46) Brent Anderson – “Amy’s Song” 47-48) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 47-48) Kevin Fowler – “That Girl” 49) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 50) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 51) Neal McCoy – “A-Ok” 52) Steve Holy – “Until The Rain Stops” [NEW!] 53-57) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” 53-57) The Band Perry – “Santa Claus Is Coming To Town” 53-57) Eli Young Band – “Wonderful Christmastime” 53-57) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” [NEW!] 53-57) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” [NEW!] 58-60) Katie Armiger – “Scream” [NEW!] 58-60) Trent Tomlinson – “A Man Without A Woman” (RE) 58-60) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” (RE)
Comments:
The Zac Brown Band will steamroll to #1 this week, leaving Jason in the dust at #2. It will be the 4th straight week at #2 for Jason (and he could get a 5th week at #2 also), and it certainly looks as if country's 2 biggest groups, Lady A and the ZBB, will have kept him from adding to his #1 collection. Look for Rascal Flatts/Natasha and David Nail to surge into the top 5 this week. Brantley Gilbert's "Country Must Be Country Wide" will go recurrent, and Blake Shelton's "God Gave Me You" and Thompson Square's "I Got You" could join him. I removed both of them, but it's possible that one could hang on. Blake will likely fall out of the top 10 in spins but not audience, while Thompson Square will likely fall out of the top 10 in audience but not spins. Billboard should remove at least one of them, but I think both could leave. If Blake stays, he'd likely land around 26 million AI's, which would probably put him behind Luke but ahead of Miranda. If Thompson Square hangs on, they'd most likely be at #10 between Chris Young and The Band Perry. I'll say there's about a 65% chance that both Blake and T2 go recurrent...and 35% that one of them hang on and would bump everyone down a spot.
Anyway, both Eric Church and Luke Bryan should move up this week, along with Chris Young. The Band Perry and Kenny Chesney continue to move slower, though. Martina should pick up a few more spots, though Dierks Bentley and Keith Urban are red hot and closing fast. Toby Keith has also had a good week and should surge into the top 20, probably followed by Justin Moore and Montgomery Gentry. Sara Evans, James Wesley, and Scotty McCreery still aren't exactly blasting up the charts, but each has had a decent week and should pick up a few spots. Faith Hill is really moving slowly, but will benefit from a couple songs going recurrent. Billy Currington continues to struggle and may be caught by Lee Brice. Taylor Swift should blast into the top 30, and Craig Morgan is another top 30 possibility.
Meanwhile, Sunny Sweeney has had a rough week and could lose her bullet, though she could still rebound next week. I think Tim McGraw and Brantley Gilbert will gain enough to edge into the top 40, and Gloriana also looks like they could be top 40 bound. Trace Adkins is still moving up very slowly and things aren't looking too good for him.
There should be a number of debuts and/or re-entries this week, as Reba's "Somebody's Chelsea" is set to join the 2 or 3 top 10 songs that will go recurrent. I think Steve Holy will have the highest debut, and I'm thinking that Josh Thompson and Lady Antebellum will both debut new singles. Katie Armiger, Trent Tomlinson, and Jana Kramer could round out the chart, though Kid Rock's "Care", Josh Thompson's album track "Change", Sugarland's "Run", Eli Young Band's "Even If It Breaks Your Heart", Corey Smith's "Maybe Next Year", and a few Christmas songs, such as Justin Bieber/The Band Perry's "Home This Christmas", Jake Owen's "Mele Kalikimaka", and Toby Keith/Sammy Hagar's "Santa's Going South", are all in the running for the last few top 60 spots as well.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 10, 2011 23:54:24 GMT -5
^ Does this mean Merry Go Round is still hanging in there then? You had recently posted in their single thread that it was on its way out.
I'm definitely hoping it sticks around. <3
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2011 23:57:57 GMT -5
^ Does this mean Merry Go Round is still hanging in there then? You had recently posted in their single thread that it was on its way out. I'm definitely hoping it sticks around. <3 It managed a strong enough weekend last week to re-bullet on the 12/17 chart, so it can't go recurrent this week and is basically assured to stay on the chart through the holidays. I don't think it will make top 40, and it's only up 0.006 million this week so far, but yeah, it's hanging in there!
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Dec 11, 2011 12:33:39 GMT -5
Two interesting rules issues, and I'm not sure I know the answer to how BB will decide them:
1. I think they'll take Blake Shelton off before they take Thompson Sq off, because in the past, on the few occasions this issue arose, they took off the spins dropper before they took off the audience dropper. It may be a moot point if both songs fall far enough to drop out of the top 10, though.
2. And I don't know what status they will give Reba's song. This would be its 3rd drop week, but it may fall under the audience needed for the top 60, so maybe this isn't considered a drop week at all. So would it be eligible to re-enter after the holidays if it's by then back in the top 60? I think it would.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Dec 12, 2011 18:13:23 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "Keep Me In Mind" Zac Brown Band Greatest Gainer No. 28 "Ours" Taylor Swift Hot Shot Debut No. 51 "Comin' Around" Josh Thompson Debut No. 54 "Christmas All Over The World" Tim McGraw Debut No. 55 "Mele Kalikimaka" Jake Owen Debut No. 57 "Dancin' Away With My Heart" Lady Antebellum Debut No. 59 "Scream" Katie Armiger Debut No. 60 "Even If It Breaks Your Heart" Eli Young Band
KATIE DEBUTS!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOO
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Dec 13, 2011 1:50:01 GMT -5
...and the rush of Christmas songs is starting!
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 13, 2011 1:59:33 GMT -5
What the heck is a Mele Kalikimaka? ???
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jlatn5b
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Post by jlatn5b on Dec 13, 2011 2:04:17 GMT -5
This is the first thing I think of when I see/hear "Mele Kalikimaka". Clark Griswald!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2011 2:15:13 GMT -5
What the heck is a Mele Kalikimaka? ??? You can listen to the song HERE. It's a Hawaiian Christmas tune! ;)
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Dec 13, 2011 2:53:30 GMT -5
Yup, Mele Kalikimaka means Merry Christmas! We've been in Hawaii during Christmas time, and this song is everywhere you turn, lol. There weren't many country radio stations in Hawaii though! Maui had one station that I found, but I don't think any of the other Hawaiian islands did besides Oahu...
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Dec 13, 2011 9:39:33 GMT -5
Maui has a station, Kauai has TWO, and the Big Island has one as well. :) (Frequent Hawaiian traveler.)
Mele Kalikimaka is Hawaii's way to say Merry Christmas to YOU!
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Dec 13, 2011 23:19:19 GMT -5
Maui has a station, Kauai has TWO, and the Big Island has one as well. :) (Frequent Hawaiian traveler.) Mele Kalikimaka is Hawaii's way to say Merry Christmas to YOU! Wow, Kauaii has two stations?? I couldn't find one when we were there a few years ago... that's great news though!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2011 23:54:32 GMT -5
12/31 Billboard Predictions:
1) Zac Brown Band – “Keep Me In Mind” 2-3) Rascal Flatts (with Natasha Bedingfield) – “Easy” 2-3) Jason Aldean – “Tattoos On This Town” 4) David Nail – “Let It Rain” 5-6) Luke Bryan – “I Don’t Want This Night To End” 5-6) Eric Church – “Drink In My Hand” 7) Lady Antebellum – “We Owned The Night” 8) Chris Young – “You” 9) The Band Perry – “All Your Life” 10) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 11) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 12) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” 13) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 14) Brad Paisley – “Camouflage” 15) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” 16) Hunter Hayes – “Storm Warning” 17-18) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 17-18) Eden’s Edge – “Amen” 19-20) Justin Moore – “Bait A Hook” 19-20) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 21) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 22-23) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 22-23) Sara Evans – “My Heart Can’t Tell You No” 24) James Wesley – “Didn’t I?” 25) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 26) Billy Currington – “Like My Dog” 27) Faith Hill – “Come Home” 28) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 29) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 30) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 31-32) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 31-32) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 33) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 34-35) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 34-35) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 36-37) Sunny Sweeney – “Drink Myself Single” 36-37) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 38) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 39-40) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 39-40) Tim McGraw - "Christmas All Over The World" 41-42) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 41-42) Trace Adkins – “Million Dollar View” 43-45) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 43-45) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 43-45) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 46-47) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 46-47 The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 48-50) The JaneDear Girls – “Merry Go Round” 48-50) The Band Perry – “Santa Claus Is Coming To Town” 48-50) Kevin Fowler – “That Girl” 51) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 52-53) Brent Anderson – “Amy’s Song” 52-53) Eli Young Band – “Wonderful Christmastime” 54) Jake Owen – “Mele Kalikimaka” 55-57) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 55-57) Neal McCoy – “A-Ok” 55-57) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 58-60) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” 58-60) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” [NEW!] 58-60) Katie Armiger – “Scream”
Comments:
Ok, so first off, I'm really only guessing at everything below #42, basically. Some songs (Lady A, Josh Thompson, Christmas songs, etc) are clearly gaining audience but don't yet have enough spins to be on AllAccess so I can only guess where they might land.
Anyway, look for the ZBB to hold at #1 for a 2nd week, and it's possible that they could stay beyond this week yet. Rascal Flatts will come in at around the same audience level Jason will be at after some more-than-questionable chart gains this week by the power ballad "Easy". Next week could be just as interesting. Some other top 10 songs have had big weeks as well (though not ultra crazy big like RF). David Nail should move up nicely, and both Luke Bryan and Eric Church have had big weeks. The 2 will be battling for the last position in the top 5. Lady A will slide down a few spots but will stay on through the holidays. Only Miranda Lambert will be going recurrent this week.
Kenny Chesney will limp into the top 10 this week as he continues to move up slowly. Keith Urban, however, is high and flying and coming up fast. His "You Gonna Fly" should land at #11. Toby Keith's "Red Solo Cup" continues to chug along and should move into the top 15, closing in a bit on Brad Paisley. George Strait has also had a good week and should jump up a few more spots. Look for Montgomery Gentry to pick up their first top 20 hit in about 2.5 years.
Jake Owen has also had a big week and should surge up to #21. Taylor Swift has had an even better week and should move up several spots, landing right around Sara Evans. Kip Moore looks likely to edge out Chris Cagle for the last spot in the top 30. Look for Tim McGraw and Brantley Gilbert to each jump up a handful of spots, while Andy Gibson slips back a bit. Tim's Christmas single, "Christmas All Over The World", should also move up a number of spots and could very well be the highest-ranked Christmas song on the chart this week. New singles by Wade Bowen, Lady A, and Josh Thompson will also move up quite a few spots.
A couple songs may or may not be bumped out of the top 60 this week. Again, Miranda Lambert's "Baggage Claim" looks likely to be the only recurrent from the entire top 60 this week, but there will certainly be more than 1 song with a good chance to take her place. I put Josh Turner's new single into the top 60, since it was sent out to radio earlier this week, but it's possible he might not chart until later in January, closer to the adds date for "Time Is Love". A couple songs (Clay Walker, Katie Armiger, etc) might have to work harder to hang onto their spots even if they gain airplay, since Christmas songs are continuing to gain airplay. Other possible debuts include Blake Shelton's "Drink On It", Miranda Lambert's "Over You", Steve Holy's "Until The Rain Stops", Ronnie Dunn's "Let The Cowboy Rock", and of course new Christmas music.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Dec 19, 2011 18:30:24 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "Keep Me In Mind" Zac Brown Band Greatest Gainer No. 3 "Easy" Rascal Flatts Featuring Natasha Bedingfield Hot Shot Debut No. 57 "Please Come Home For Christmas" Martina McBride
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Dec 19, 2011 18:41:14 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "Keep Me In Mind" Zac Brown Band Greatest Gainer No. 3 "Easy" Rascal Flatts Featuring Natasha Bedingfield Hot Shot Debut No. 57 "Please Come Home For Christmas" Martina McBride Glad to see Martina charting. I really like her version of "Please Come Home For Christmas".
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2011 1:39:50 GMT -5
It's a bit tougher to predict where each song will land this week, since all non-Christmas songs will be shedding a lot of audience this weekend. It's also really tough to guess just how much the new Christmas tunes will gain. But I will still try my best!
Top 60 Predictions for 1/7 Billboard Chart:
1) Zac Brown Band – “Keep Me In Mind” 2-4) Rascal Flatts (with Natasha Bedingfield) – “Easy” 2-4) Jason Aldean – “Tattoos On This Town” 2-4) David Nail – “Let It Rain" 5-6) Eric Church – “Drink In My Hand” 5-6) Luke Bryan – “I Don’t Want This Night To End" 7) Chris Young – “You” 8-9) Lady Antebellum – “We Owned The Night” 8-9) The Band Perry – “All Your Life” 10) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 11) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 12) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” 13) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 14) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” 15-16) Brad Paisley – “Camouflage” 15-16) Hunter Hayes – “Storm Warning" 17) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 18-19) Eden’s Edge – “Amen” 18-19) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 20) Justin Moore – “Bait A Hook” 21) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 22) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 23) Sara Evans – “My Heart Can’t Tell You No” 24) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 25-27) Billy Currington – “Like My Dog” 25-27) James Wesley – “Didn’t I?” 25-27) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 28) Faith Hill – “Come Home” 29) Tim McGraw – “Christmas All Over The World” 30-32) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 30-32) The Band Perry – “Santa Claus Is Coming To Town” 30-32) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 33-35) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 33-35) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 33-35) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 36-38) Eli Young Band – “Wonderful Christmastime” 36-38) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 36-38) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 39-41) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 39-41) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 39-41) Sunny Sweeney – “Drink Myself Single” 42) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches" 43) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 44-46) Martina McBride – “Please Come Home For Christmas” 44-46) Trace Adkins – “Million Dollar View” 44-46) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 47-49) Kevin Fowler – “That Girl” 47-49) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 47-49) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 50-52) Jake Owen – “Mele Kalikimaka” 50-52) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 50-52) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 53) The JaneDear Girls – “Merry Go Round” 54-55) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 54-55) Brent Anderson – “Amy’ Song” 56-57) Chris Young – “O Holy Night” [NEW!] 56-57) Rascal Flatts – “Mary Did You Know?” [NEW!] 58) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 59-60) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 59-60) Neal McCoy – “A-Ok”
Comments:
Since this is the "Christmas" chart, pretty much every song not related to the holidays will lose its bullet and some audience. The songs near the top have the most audience, so they have the most spins to give up and the most audience to lose. Basically, though, with everyone going down, the relationships between the songs will stay fairly similar. However, a few songs that gained a decent amount of audience this week might therefore not lose as much. Only 5 non-holiday songs have gained more than 1 million on Mediabase this week--Chris Young's "You", Keith Urban's "You Gonna Fly", Montgomery Gentry's "Where I Come From", Jake Owen's "Alone With You", and Taylor Swift's "Ours". So it's a reasonable assumption to predict that these songs might lose a little less than the songs just above or below them on the chart. Also, Billboard usually doesn't send any songs recurrent over Christmas or New Year's, though they did last year when the Zac Brown Band's "As She's Walking Away" (feat. Alan Jackson) got removed 2 weeks before most expected it to.
Speaking of the ZBB, they're on top of the chart again, and despite being bullet-less last week, "Keep Me In Mind" stayed at #1 for a 2nd week and it's going to be at #1 again on the 1/7 chart. Rascal Flatts had a huge gain last week, but couldn't even catch Jason for #2. Jason has lost more audience so far this week, but I think "Easy" could stand to lose a bit more audience this weekend, so it will be close between the 2 again this week. Right now, I'm leaning towards "Easy" slipping up a spot to #2, but I don't think they have enough left in the tank to snag the #1 spot post-Christmas, especially with plans for a new single in January. So, the successor to the ZBB at #1 remains to be determined...David Nail is still in the hunt, and I think he's got a better chance than Rascal Flatts does, so we'll keep our eyes on him. He looks likely to hold at #4 this week, but I think he'll close in on Jason & RF and it's not out of the question for David to slide up a notch.
If David can't hit #1 sometime in January, either Luke Bryan or Eric Church will almost certainly be the next #1. Both songs have been moving up quickly and after Luke moved ahead last week for the first time, Eric looks like he might sneak ahead and claim his first top 5 hit this week, though the race remains nearly neck-and-neck. Chris Young is also on a roll and has a pretty good chance to make "You" his 5th straight #1 hit after Luke & Eric have peaked.
Keith Urban continues to show his strength as he reels in Kenny Chesney. It looks like a 2nd week at #11 for Keith--there will be a few songs potentially swapping spots in the top 10, but songs 10-23 will basically stay the same with only one or two close "races" among those songs. Keith is first in line to move into the top 10, and he'll take Lady A's spot. Martina and Dierks will have to wait until Jason & Rascal Flatts drop out in a couple of weeks, assuming they can't pass The Band Perry and/or Kenny Chesney.
It remains to be seen how far Toby's "Red Solo Cup" will climb--have the holidays been helping it? Maybe, but it was doing well right out of the gate, too. I doubt it can go #1 but a top 10 might be in Toby's future, and "Red Solo Cup" looks likely to be the veteran's first ever Platinum hit. Meanwhile, Montgomery Gentry and Jake Owen are both showing strong growth, while James Wesley and Faith Hill have had really rough weeks. If Billboard were to violate their unwritten rule and send any song recurrent this week, it'd likely be James Wesley's "Didn't I", as the song is 36 weeks old and down over 700k for the week so far. Faith is also down over 500k, and both Chris Cagle and Rodney Atkins have struggled as well, though to a lesser extent.
For Christmas songs, again, it's really tough to guess where they'll wind up. We might see 1 or even 2 crack the top 30. Tim McGraw's "Christmas All Over The World" seems likely to do it, and The Band Perry's rendition of "Santa Claus Is Coming To Town" could also make it. As for the others, I expect that the Eli Young Band's "Wonderful Christmastime" will land in the top 40, with Martina McBride's "Please Come Home For Christmas" stopping just short of the top 40, though she has a chance to make it in as well.
A few more Christmas singles will surely debut, too--I only listed Chris Young's "O Holy Night" and Rascal Flatts' "Mary Did You Know?" as debuts, but a handful of other songs could make it as well, including Justin Moore's "Run Rudolph Run", Toby Keith & Sammy Hagar's "Santa's Going South", Little Big Town's "Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas", Steel Magnolia's "It's Christmas Time", and maybe 1 or 2 more. It's pretty much a guessing game--there are several new songs to choose from but old songs often remain favorites as well. Clay Walker and Katie Armiger will likely be bumped out of the top 60, and Neal McCoy and/or the Eli Young Band could certainly join them as well--it all depends on how many Christmas songs make brief 1-week chart appearances. Whoever gets bumped out of the top 60 will likely re-enter on the 1/14 chart, probably joined by a handful of debuting songs.
I'd like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! :)
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Dec 25, 2011 16:36:07 GMT -5
Someone has to post on Christmas Day. And wish JHomes a fine Christmas as well -- thanks, JH, for all the chart analysis in your predictions.
Lady A and James Wesley are both dodging recurrency this week, because I'm pretty sure Lady A would, if this were an ordinary week, be heading toward #11 in spins. Since it's Christmas week, they shouldn't go recurrent and the song may remain in the top 10 in spins anyway, thanks to other songs losing ground over the weekend.
And they'll re-bullet the following week, too, so it's a nice delay for both of them.
I'm in agreement with JHomes: we have 3 top 40 Christmas songs (Tim, Perry, Eli Young) with at least two of them making the top 30, and probably another 5 charting ones, with JHomes' guesses probably better than mine. That will kick a number of songs off the chart for a week, but they'll be back.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Dec 26, 2011 19:34:21 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "Keep Me In Mind" Zac Brown Band Greatest Gainer No. 29 "Santa Claus Is Coming To Town" The Band Perry Hot Shot Debut No. 49 "Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas" Little Big Town Debut No. 53 "Over You" Miranda Lambert Debut No. 56 "Drink On It" Blake Shelton Debut No. 58 "Run Rudolph Run" Justin Moore Debut No. 59 "O Holy Night" Edens Edge
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Post by city5705boy on Dec 29, 2011 15:09:57 GMT -5
I see Little Big Town is the HOT SHOT DEBUT at 49 with "Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas", but when I got the chart, it wasn't on there, the HOT SHOT DEBUT was Miranda Lambert. #49 was the Lost Trailers.
Does anyone know what happened?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2011 16:29:35 GMT -5
I see Little Big Town is the HOT SHOT DEBUT at 49 with "Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas", but when I got the chart, it wasn't on there, the HOT SHOT DEBUT was Miranda Lambert. #49 was the Lost Trailers. Does anyone know what happened? I posted about that HERE. The chart must be right--whoever publishes the highlights is certainly most likely to make the mistake. The only things I can think of (besides the highlights guy publishing a mistake) is that LBT's version of "Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas" was recorded prior to this year. By Billboard's rules, it couldn't chart if it was recorded last year. But I had been under the impression that it was recorded earlier in 2011, and if that's the case, I thought it would've charted because it seemed to be doing well on Mediabase (from the update we got) and that was about a week before Christmas, so I was pretty sure it would've had enough audience to chart on Billboard too. But I guess, if it was a new recording, the highlights guy made a mistake and somehow LBT didn't get enough audience over the holiday weekend to make a top 60, let alone top 50, appearance.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 1, 2012 13:44:10 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for the 1/14 Billboard chart, which will be published in the Billboard Country Update on Tuesday, January 3.
1) Zac Brown Band – “Keep Me In Mind” 2) David Nail – “Let It Rain” 3-4) Jason Aldean – “Tattoos On This Town” 3-4) Eric Church – “Drink In My Hand” 5) Luke Bryan – “I Don’t Want This Night To End” 6) Rascal Flatts (with Natasha Bedingfield) – “Easy” (last week) 7) Chris Young – “You” 8) The Band Perry – “All Your Life” 9) Lady Antebellum – “We Owned The Night” (last week) 10) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 11) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 12) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” 13) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 14) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” 15-17) Hunter Hayes – “Storm Warning” 15-17) Brad Paisley – “Camouflage” 15-17) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 18) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 19-20) Eden’s Edge – “Amen” 19-20) Justin Moore – “Bait A Hook” 21) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 22) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 23) Sara Evans – “My Heart Can’t Tell You No” 24) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 25) Billy Currington – “Like My Dog” 26) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 27) Faith Hill – “Come Home” 28) James Wesley – “Didn’t I?” (last week) 29) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 30) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 31-33) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 31-33) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 31-33) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 34) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 35) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 36-38) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 36-38) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 36-38) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 39) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 40) Sunny Sweeney – “Drink Myself Single” 41-45) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 41-45) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 41-45) Trace Adkins – “Million Dollar View” 41-45) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 41-45) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 46-47) Kevin Fowler – “That Girl” 46-47) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 48-49) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 48-49) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 50-52) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” (RE) 50-52) Brent Anderson – “Amy’s Song” 50-52) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 53) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” (RE) 54) The JaneDear Girls – “Merry Go Round” 55-56) Neal McCoy – “A-Ok” (RE) 55-56) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” [NEW!] 57-60) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” [NEW!] 57-60) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” (RE) 57-60) Katie Armiger – “Scream” (RE) 57-60) Steve Holy – “Until The Rain Stops” [NEW!]
Comments:
This is the chart on which everyone should have a bullet, as all songs will gain back the airplay lost over the Christmas weekend. So as a result, movement will be held to a minimum again this week, especially for those songs within the top 30. However, there will be some movement, as some songs are still obviously out-gaining others. And next week, we should see some songs dropping pretty hard.
The Zac Brown Band's "Keep Me In Mind" will be #1 for a 4th straight week on the 1/14 chart--it will likely be their final week at #1. David Nail looks likely to take "Let It Rain" up to #2 in its 48th chart week, while Jason Aldean should finally slip down from the runner-up spot that he's held for 6 consecutive weeks. Eric Church and Luke Bryan continue to roll and should be solidly within the top 5.
This should be the last week on the chart for Lady A's recent #1 hit "We Owned The Night". I also think that this could be the last week on the chart for Rascal Flatts' "Easy", as they will surely drop like a rock next week. This will likely open up some room in the top 10 next week for Keith Urban and likely Martina McBride, although Dierks Bentley and Toby Keith aren't too far back. Brad Paisley's "Camouflage" continues to underperform as it battles with the soon-to-be 36 week old "Storm Warning" from rookie Hunter Hayes. Chasing them both down is the king, George Strait, with "Love's Gonna Make It Alright". I'm not sure if George can make the pass on either Hunter or Brad this week, but it's not impossible. Meanwhile, Taylor Swift should slide ahead of Jake Owen this week. James Wesley will re-bullet, but this will more than likely be the final week on the chart for "Didn't I", a song that will be in its 38th week.
All the holiday tunes will go recurrent this week, so that will free up 8 spots on the chart and allow for quite a bit of movement in the lower parts of the chart. Tim McGraw's "Better Than I Used To Be" looks like it could sneak into the top 30, although Kip Moore and Chris Cagle are also in the mix and Lady Antebellum's fast-moving new single "Dancin' Away With My Heart" is a contender, too. Look for Rodney Atkins, Gloriana, Andy Gibson, and Lauren Alaina to surge back into the top 40 this week. It looks like they will all move ahead of Sunny Sweeney, who apparently has a holiday hangover as she hasn't gained much this week.
New singles by Blake Shelton ("Drink On It") and Miranda Lambert ("Over You") managed to debut on the chart last week, despite all the holiday airplay, and this week both of them should jump up quite a bit, likely close to the top 40. Finally, I'm expecting a few debuts and quite a few re-entries--look for the Eli Young Band's "Even If It Breaks Your Heart", Craig Campbell's "When I Get It", and Neal McCoy's "A-Ok" to return to the chart. I also think Clay Walker's "Like We Never Said Goodbye" and Katie Armiger's "Scream" will return, while Josh Turner should make his debut with new single "Time Is Love". Ronnie Dunn's "Let The Cowboy Rock" and Steve Holy's "Until The Rain Stops" seem like possible debuts, too. Also contending for top 60 positions could be Jana Kramer's "Why Ya Wanna?", Canaan Smith's "We Got Us", and Corey Smith's "Maybe Next Year".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2012 19:28:57 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 predictions for the 1/21 Billboard Chart!
1-2) David Nail – “Let It Rain” 1-2) Zac Brown Band – “Keep Me In Mind” 3) Eric Church – “Drink In My Hand” 4) Luke Bryan – “I Don’t Want This Night To End” 5-6) Chris Young – “You” 5-6) Jason Aldean – “Tattoos On This Town” 7) Rascal Flatts (with Natasha Bedingfield) – “Easy” (last week) 8) The Band Perry – “All Your Life” 9) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 10) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 11) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” 12) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 13) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” 14-15) Brad Paisley – “Camouflage” 14-15) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 16) Hunter Hayes – “Storm Warning” 17-18) Justin Moore – “Bait A Hook” 17-18) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 19-20) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 19-20) Eden’s Edge – “Amen” 21) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 22) Sara Evans – “My Heart Can’t Tell You No” 23) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 24) Billy Currington – “Like My Dog” 25) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 26-27) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 26-27) Faith Hill – “Come Home” 28) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 29) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 30-31) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 30-31) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 32) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 33-34) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 33-34) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 35-36) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 35-36) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 37) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 38-39) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 38-39) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 40) Sunny Sweeney – “Drink Myself Single” 41) Trace Adkins – “Million Dollar View” 42) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 43-44) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 43-44) Kevin Fowler – “That Girl” 45) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 46) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 47) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 48-50) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 48-50) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 48-50) Brent Anderson – “Amy’s Song” 51) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 52) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 53) Neal McCoy – “A-Ok” 54) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” [NEW!] 55-58) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 55-58) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 55-58) Katie Armiger – “Scream” 55-58) The JaneDear Girls – “Shotgun Girl” (last week) 59-60) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” (RE) 59-60) Steve Holy – “Until The Rain Stops”
Comments:
It's going to be a very close race for #1 this week. After 4 weeks on top, the Zac Brown Band's "Keep Me In Mind" has held its ground remarkably well and could be in line for a 5th week at #1. However, David Nail's 49-week old single "Let It Rain" began surging by mid-week and is neck and neck with the ZBB for the top spot. Earlier in the week, Eric Church also appeared to be a candidate, and while he's had a strong week, he'll more than likely have to wait until next week. As of right now (Sunday evening), I'll give David a 52% chance of hitting #1 and the ZBB a 48% chance of hanging on. It's too close to call.
Luke Bryan and Chris Young are also moving up nicely and look positioned to follow Eric Church at #1 in a couple of weeks. Lady Antebellum's "We Owned The Night" will go recurrent this week, and Keith Urban's "You Gonna Fly" will take their spot as he flies into the top 10. Martina and Dierks will move right up to the cusp of the top 10. Toby Keith's "Red Solo Cup" is also still hanging in there, along with Brad Paisley's "Camouflage", but the king, George Strait, is on the move and could sneak into the top 15 this week with "Love's Gonna Make It Alright". Look for Jake Owen to surge into the top 20 this week, with Taylor Swift still close behind.
Lady Antebellum's new single "Dancin' Away With My Heart" is starting to take off, and should move up several spots again this week. Look for Tim McGraw's "Better Than I Used To Be" to move into the top 30, and James Wesley's "Didn't I" to go recurrent from the top 30 after a 38 week chart run and a #24 peak. Meanwhile, Blake Shelton's "Drink On It" is off to a fast start and could challenge Kip Moore for the final top 30 spot. Chris Cagle and Casey James are still hanging in there, with Brantley Gilbert and Miranda Lambert coming up from behind.
Lauren Alaina continues to move up slowly, and the struggles also continue for Rodney Atkins, Andy Gibson, Sunny Sweeney, and Trace Adkins. I'm expecting Josh Turner and the Eli Young Band to crack the top 50, while Ronnie Dunn seems likely to be the Hot Shot Debut. The JaneDear Girls have clearly peaked but may get this one last week on the chart. Clay Walker has a good chance to re-enter the chart, and if there is another opening, Canaan Smith's "We Got Us", Thompson Square's "Glass", or maybe Dustin Lynch's "Cowboys And Angels" could debut.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 9, 2012 17:12:14 GMT -5
Country Songs Greatest Gainer/*** No. 1 *** "Let It Rain" David Nail Featuring Sarah Buxton Hot Shot Debut No. 55 "Let The Cowboy Rock" Ronnie Dunn Debut No. 59 "Cowboys And Angels" Dustin Lynch
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bigfan101
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I am Sara Evans other fan.
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Post by bigfan101 on Jan 9, 2012 17:37:50 GMT -5
Glad Sarah Buxton us getting a little credit!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2012 20:48:03 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 predictions for the 1/28 Billboard chart!
1) Eric Church – “Drink In My Hand” 2) Luke Bryan – “I Don’t Want This Night To End” 3) Chris Young – “You” 4) Zac Brown Band – “Keep Me In Mind” 5) David Nail – “Let It Rain" 6) The Band Perry – “All Your Life” 7) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 8-9) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 8-9) Jason Aldean – “Tattoos On This Town” (last week) 10) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” 11) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 12) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” 13) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 14) Hunter Hayes – “Storm Warning” 15) Brad Paisley – “Camouflage” 16-18) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 16-18) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 16-18) Justin Moore – “Bait A Hook” 19) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 20) Eden’s Edge – “Amen” 21) Sara Evans – “My Heart Can’t Tell You No” 22) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 23) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 24) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 25) Billy Currington – “Like My Dog” 26) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 27) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 28) Faith Hill – “Come Home” 29) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 30) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 31-32) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 31-32) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 33) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 34) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 35) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 36-38) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 36-38) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 36-38) Rascal Flatts – “Banjo” [NEW!] 39) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 40-41) Sunny Sweeney – “Drink Myself Single” 40-41) Trace Adkins – “Million Dollar View” 42) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 43-45) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 43-45) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 43-45) Kevin Fowler – “That Girl” 46) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 47-48) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 47-48) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 49) Brent Anderson – “Amy’s Song” 50-51) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 50-51) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 52) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” 53-56) Neal McCoy – “A-Ok” 53-56) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 53-56) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 53-56) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 57-59) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” 57-59) The JaneDear Girls – “Merry Go Round” 57-59) Katie Armiger – “Scream” 60) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye”
Comments:
Eric Church will pick up his 1st #1 this week, as "Drink In My Hand" is all but a lock to land at #1 in its 23rd week on the charts. Meanwhile, Luke Bryan and Chris Young continue to roll right along and should take turns following Eric at #1. As long as Luke doesn't block Chris (and I don't think he will), the timing looks possible for a 2-3 week stay at the top for Chris Young's "You". Last week's #1, David Nail's record-setting "Let It Rain", will turn 50 weeks old on the 1/28 chart, and will likely slide down to #5. The Band Perry has had a big week and is only 1 more week from the top 5. Kenny Chesney and Keith Urban continue to roll along nicely as well. Rascal Flatts' "Easy" will plunge 9-10 million and easily go recurrent from the top 10.
The departure of "Easy" will allow for Martina McBride to pick up her first top 10 in more than 4 1/2 years, as "I'm Gonna Love You Through It" should land right at #10. Dierks will move up to #11, and Toby's "Red Solo Cup" continues to chug along as well, but for now, both will remain behind Martina. King George also continues to climb fairly quickly, but Brad Paisley's struggles continue as he slows to a near standstill. Taylor Swift and Jake Owen are both on the move, while Eden's Edge and Sara Evans may see small audience losses...I don't think either will go recurrent yet this week, but both could be nearing the end of the road. Faith Hill has also lost some audience, and I'm not sure if she can climb any higher. Lady Antebellum should blast up a few more spots, but the white hot Blake Shelton is on their tail, as his "Drink On It" could see a monster 6 million gain this week! :o
Gloriana, Lauren Alaina, Rodney Atkins, Sunny Sweeney, Trace Adkins, Wade Bowen, and Josh Thompson have all really struggled this week. As a matter of fact, only 3 songs in the 36-50 range on Mediabase this week were able to gain any audience at all, with the only one gaining more than 22k being Miranda Lambert's "Over You" (and of course her gain will be a lot closer to 2 million than it will be to 22k). Miranda should be able to climb close to the top 30, but most of the other songs will have to fight just to keep their bullets this week.
With Rascal Flatts' "Easy" being the only likely recurrent this week, look for...Rascal Flatts to replace them. The trio's new single, "Banjo", is the first from their upcoming 8th studio album and is set for a solid top 40 debut on the chart this week. I've got them pegged at #38, though they could come in as high as #36 if they can edge ahead of both Gloriana and Lauren Alaina. Probably less than a 5% chance that they can catch #35, likely to be Andy Gibson, this week.
Maybe there will be another debut/re-entry (Alan Jackson? Canaan Smith? Zac Brown Band?) close to the bottom of the chart, but with maybe only 1 song going recurrent this week, the newcomers to the chart will be few. Jason Aldean's "Tattoos On This Town" will be going recurrent next week, and Eden's Edge and Sara Evans won't be able to last much longer either. Faith Hill and Brad Paisley both have younger singles, but both need some serious help or they could be out the door soon too. Rodney Atkins, Trace Adkins, Sunny Sweeney, and Wade Bowen, among others, have really struggled to get out of the gate and might be in for short chart runs as well. So while this may be a slow week, we could see some more movement in the next 2-3 weeks.
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 16, 2012 10:58:17 GMT -5
I see Little Big Town is the HOT SHOT DEBUT at 49 with "Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas", but when I got the chart, it wasn't on there, the HOT SHOT DEBUT was Miranda Lambert. #49 was the Lost Trailers. Does anyone know what happened? I posted about that HERE. The chart must be right--whoever publishes the highlights is certainly most likely to make the mistake. The only things I can think of (besides the highlights guy publishing a mistake) is that LBT's version of "Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas" was recorded prior to this year. By Billboard's rules, it couldn't chart if it was recorded last year. But I had been under the impression that it was recorded earlier in 2011, and if that's the case, I thought it would've charted because it seemed to be doing well on Mediabase (from the update we got) and that was about a week before Christmas, so I was pretty sure it would've had enough audience to chart on Billboard too. But I guess, if it was a new recording, the highlights guy made a mistake and somehow LBT didn't get enough audience over the holiday weekend to make a top 60, let alone top 50, appearance. It's been a long time, but I came back to check a few things out today and happened upon this. I know it's been a few weeks since this post, but when the chart came out in the BCU the following week, it listed positions that were consistent with the Highlights and not the posted chart for this week. And then I took a look at Billboard.Biz and the archive section and it showed that Little Big Town was on the country chart for that week and Chris Young wasn't, so I'm assuming that the Highlights were in fact correct and that somehow the other chart was incorrect. Didn't see anything posted on this after this, so thought I'd put in my two cents worth.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Jan 16, 2012 18:45:01 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "Drink In My Hand" Eric Church Greatest Gainer No. 23 "Drink On It" Blake Shelton Hot Shot Debut No. 37 "Banjo" Rascal Flatts Debut No. 58 "So You Don't Have To Love Me Anymore" Alan Jackson
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2012 22:09:14 GMT -5
It's been a long time, but I came back to check a few things out today and happened upon this. I know it's been a few weeks since this post, but when the chart came out in the BCU the following week, it listed positions that were consistent with the Highlights and not the posted chart for this week. And then I took a look at Billboard.Biz and the archive section and it showed that Little Big Town was on the country chart for that week and Chris Young wasn't, so I'm assuming that the Highlights were in fact correct and that somehow the other chart was incorrect. Didn't see anything posted on this after this, so thought I'd put in my two cents worth. Welcome back! :) And yeah, I actually did notice that LBT must've gotten the chart space when the next week's chart came out (1/14 chart, I believe), but never posted anything about it. Anyway, for those expecting the chart tonight, I don't think it will come because it is a holiday. At least, the chart wasn't published on Martin Luther King Jr. Day last year...it came out Tuesday the 18th, so I'm expecting we'll get it tomorrow evening.
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carriekins
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With my mouth wide open in a whiskey rain, I could stand here 24 hours a day...
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Post by carriekins on Jan 16, 2012 22:25:28 GMT -5
Oh, good. I can go to sleep. ;)
Also, thanks for always posting your predictions. It's fun to read. :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2012 11:10:34 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 predictions for the 2/4 Billboard chart!
1) Luke Bryan – “I Don’t Want This Night To End” 2) Eric Church – “Drink In My Hand” 3) Chris Young – “You” 4) The Band Perry – “All Your Life” 5) Zac Brown Band – “Keep Me In Mind” 6-7) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 6-7) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 8) David Nail – “Let It Rain” (last week) 9) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” 10) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 11) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” 12) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 13-14) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 13-14) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 15) Hunter Hayes – “Storm Warning” 16) Brad Paisley – “Camouflage” 17) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 18) Justin Moore – “Bait A Hook” 19) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 20) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 21) Sara Evans – “My Heart Can’t Tell You No” 22) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 23) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 24-25) Billy Currington – “Like My Dog” 24-25) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 26) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 27-30) Faith Hill – “Come Home” 27-30) Rascal Flatts – “Banjo” 27-30) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 27-30) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 31) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 32) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 33) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 34) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 35-36) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 35-36) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 37) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 38) Trace Adkins – “Million Dollar View” 39) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 40-41) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 40-41) Sunny Sweeney – “Drink Myself Single” (last week) 42-43) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 42-43) Kevin Fowler – “That Girl” 44-46) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 44-46) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 44-46) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 47-49) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” 47-49) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 47-49) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 50-51) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 50-51) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 52-55) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” 52-55) Brent Anderson – “Amy’s Song” (last week) 52-55) Zac Brown Band – “No Hurry” [NEW!] 52-55) Alan Jackson – “So You Don’t Have To Love Me Anymore” 56) Neal McCoy – “A-Ok” 57) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 58-60) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” (RE) 58-60) Katie Armiger – “Scream” 58-60) Canaan Smith – “We Got Us” [NEW!]
Comments:
It's been a pretty competitive week on the chart, with a lot of close races taking place, and many songs fighting to gain ground or to hang on at all.
Luke Bryan will take over at #1 quite easily, but there's a battle brewing behind him. Chris Young still seems likely to follow Luke at the top, but he may have his hands full after The Band Perry's strong surge has pulled them very close. Chris needs one more good week this coming week to probably close the deal and hit the top spot...I still think it will happen, but it's not set in stone yet.
Kenny Chesney and Keith Urban are neck and neck as they close in on the top 5. Jason Aldean's "Tattoos On This Town" will go recurrent from the top 10, and I expect Eden's Edge's top 20 hit "Amen" to join him in leaving. David Nail's "Let It Rain" should get 1 more week in the top 10, but with Jason leaving, look for Dierks Bentley's "Home" to take his spot in the top 10, with Toby and George not too far back.
Taylor Swift and Jake Owen continue to roll and should both surge into the top 15 this week, past the slower-climbing Hunter Hayes and the floundering Brad Paisley. Hunter started the week off strong but has really lost steam and will still have plenty of work to do if he wants to find himself in the top 10 a few weeks down the road. Brad's top 10 chances will continue to fade. Look for Lady Antebellum and Blake Shelton to rocket into the top 20.
Both Sara Evans and Justin Moore have come to a standstill...Justin will probably stay on the chart but there's a slight chance that Sara could go recurrent this week. I left her in the list, though, as the chance that she could leave isn't terribly high at this point. Lee Brice continues to do pretty well, while Billy Currington continues to struggle with Tim McGraw and Miranda Lambert coming up fast. Faith Hill is also back-sliding, with newcomer Kip Moore closing in. Also look for Rascal Flatts to blast into the top 30 in just their 2nd chart week.
Most of the songs in the 30's continue to move very slowly. Casey James, Andy Gibson, Rodney Atkins, Gloriana, Lauren Alaina, and Trace Adkins have all really struggled to gain traction, and that could prove to be especially troublesome for veterans like Atkins and Adkins. Meanwhile, Sunny Sweeney has thrown in the towel and the nosedive has begun--this should be her last week on the chart, and she could spend it outside the top 40. The Farm's debut single "Home Sweet Home" should crack the top 40, while Love & Theft, Kevin Fowler, and Wade Bowen continue to fight to gain ground. Newcomers Jana Kramer and Dustin Lynch should surge into the top 50, both off to very promising starts. Also, The Eli Young Band should pick up a few spots, while Josh Turner and Josh Thompson both slow up a bit after pretty good starts.
Jason Aldean's "Fly Over States" is now starting to take off and could land in the top 50, or at least very close to it. Look for the Zac Brown Band's "No Hurry" to be the Hot Shot Debut of the week, as the band begins their journey to try to pick up a 5th straight #1 from their You Get What You Give album, and an 8th straight #1 overall. It's a very competitive chart, especially outside the top 40, but I think veterans Ronnie Dunn and Alan Jackson should move up a few spots, and fellow veteran Clay Walker should return to the chart as well. The JaneDear Girls will fall out of the top 60, and this should allow for Canaan Smith's debut single "We Got Us" to enter the chart, though Steve Holy, Thompson Square, and Phil Vassar are also in the hunt.
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