onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on May 18, 2015 10:38:11 GMT -5
I see jhomes87 that your favorite, Chris Stapleton is set to debut and make his second chart appearance. After a #2 placing of Traveller, he deserves some success all to his own (instead of writing hits for others).
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Libra
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Post by Libra on May 18, 2015 18:34:03 GMT -5
I see jhomes87 that your favorite, Chris Stapleton is set to debut and make his second chart appearance. After a #2 placing of Traveller, he deserves some success all to his own (instead of writing hits for others). ...Or not. Steven Tyler is the one and only debut: Country Airplay *** No. 1 (1 week)*** "A Guy Walks Into A Bar" Tyler Farr Debut/Greatest Gainer No. 33 "Love Is Your Name" Steven Tyler ETA: Re-entries apparently don't get listed in the Chart Highlight articles (though they really should). I'd bank on there being a second chart entry that's a return rather than either ZBB ( again!) or Dierks cheating chart death.
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2015 21:12:54 GMT -5
ETA: Re-entries apparently don't get listed in the Chart Highlight articles (though they really should). I'd bank on there being a second chart entry that's a return rather than either ZBB ( again!) or Dierks cheating chart death. Nope, "Homegrown" finally went recurrent, and Dierks dropped off as well. It was Toby who re-entered at #60. Going off Mediabase audience, I figured Stapleton had a slightly better chance to come in at #60 than Toby, Darius Rucker, Logan Mize, or RaeLynn, but all the songs are so close that it was impossible to be sure. Toby's at #60 with 1.140 million; he did re-bullet (+77 spins) despite a loss of 0.036 mil in audience. Under New & Active, Darius Rucker checks in with 1.124 million...maybe only 2-3 more spins would have put him ahead of Toby. Stapleton has 1.028 mil, and Logan Mize has 1.027 mil. RaeLynn was New & Active last week with 1.004 mil, but she didn't bullet on tonight's chart and is thus not listed in the New & Active section. I thought she would have seen a slight increase (again, based on what I'd gathered from Mediabase), but apparently not. She's probably still in that 950k to 1 million range though.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on May 19, 2015 1:46:26 GMT -5
For that matter, looks like Dierks went recurrent due to the spins clause; he'd have been #9 otherwise, and not by much.
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2015 2:06:19 GMT -5
For that matter, looks like Dierks went recurrent due to the spins clause; he'd have been #9 otherwise, and not by much. Yeah, I knew Dierks would go recurrent. He easily lost enough spins, and both Easton and Kelsea easily gained enough. :)
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2015 8:39:12 GMT -5
I just wanted to quickly come into this thread to say I'm gonna do chart predictions as well if anybody's interested I'll do mine his weekend.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2015 10:52:27 GMT -5
Ok my top 60 Prediction
1st. Billy Currington Don't It 2nd. A Thousand Horses Smoke 3rd. Florida Georgia Line Sipping On Fire 4th. Kenny Chesney & Grace Potter Wild Child 5th-6th. Carrie Underwood Little Toy Guns 5th-6th. Easton Corbin Baby Be My Love Song 7th. Blake Shelton Sangria 8th-10th. Tyler Farr A Guy Walks Into A Bar (last week) 8th-10th. Keith Urban & Eric Church Raise Em Up (last week) 8th-10th. Kelsea Ballerini Love Me Like You Mean It 11th. Tim McGraw Diamond Rings & Old Barstools 12th. Canaan Smith Love You Like That 13th. Little Big Town Girl Crush 14th. Brad Paisley Crushing It 15th. Jason Aldean Tonight Looks Good On You 16th. Frankie Ballard Young & Crazy 17th. Brantley Gilbert One Hell Of An Amen 18th-19th. Eric Paslay She Don't Love You (last week?) 18th-19th. Michael Ray Kiss You In The Morning 20th-21st. Zac Brown Band Loving You Easy 20th-21st. Luke Bryan Kick The Dust Up New! 22nd. Luke Bryan Games 23rd. Eric Church Like A Wrecking Ball 24th. Rascal Flatts Riot 25th-26th. Dustin Lynch Hell Of A Night 25th-26th. Thomas Rhett Crash & Burn 27th. Chris Janson Buy Me A Boat 28th. Gloriana Trouble (last week?) 29th. Maddie & Tae Fly 30th. Brett Eldredge Lose My Mind 31st. Kip Moore I'm To Blame 32nd. Chase Rice Gonna Wanna Tonight 33rd. Reba Going Out Like That 34th. Hunter Hayes 21 New! 35th. Sam Hunt House Party 36th. Dan + Shay Nothing Like You 37th-40th. Parmalee Already Calling You Mine 37th-40th. Big & Rich Run Away With You 37th-40th. Lady Antebellum Long Stretch Of Love 37th-40th. Old Dominion Break Up With Him 41st-42nd. Mickey Guyton Better Than You Left Me (last week?) 41st-42nd. Cole Swindell Let Me See Ya Girl 43rd. Eli Young Band Turn It On 44th-45th. Brothers Osborne Stay A Little Longer 44th-45th. Jana Kramer I Got The Boy 46th. Austin Webb All Country On You 47th. Steven Tyler Love Is Your Name 48th. Mo Pitney Country 49th. Kacey Musgraves Biscuits (last week?) 50th. Gary Allan Hangover Tonight (last week?) 51st. Thompson Square Trans Am 52nd-53rd. George Strait Let It Go 52nd-53rd. Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You 54th-56th. Drake White It Feels Good 54th-56th. Montgomery Gentry Folks Like Us 54th-56th. Kid Rock First Kiss 57th. Casey James Fall Apart 58th. LoCash I Love This Life 59th. Ashley Monroe On To Something Good 60th. Cam My Mistake Bubbling Under 61st. Waterloo Revival Hit The Road 62nd. Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You 63rd. Toby Keith 35 MPH Town 64th. Raelynn For A Boy 65th. Darius Rucker Southern Style 66th. Logan Mize Can't Get Away From A Good Time
Highlights/Commentary Billy will wind up at #1 with his third strait number 1. A Thousand Horses are right on the verge of getting their first #1 song with Smoke but will have to settle for runner-up this week. FGL looks to round out the top 3 and should get their number 1 after A Thousand Horses. Kenny & Grace looks to launch themselves into the Top 5 as they had a huge gain week. Look for a #1 if FGL clears out in time. Carrie Underwood looks to enter the Top 5. Easton Corbin has gained back on Carrie but probably won't pass her but could land at #6. Blake Shelton has had another impressive week and is on fire and is now closing in on Easton Tyler Farr begins his ascent down for a week and looks to land in the 8 to 10 range. Kelsea Ballerini should easily get her first top 10 with Keith and Tim remaining nowhere as she's had an impressive week. Keith should cling onto the last Top 10 but could get #8-#9 spot as he spends his last week. Tim will get pushed out of the Top 10 due to a flat week and he might Canaan had a rather flat week but should get in the Top 10 next week. LBT started off strong but has now had a rather uneventful week. But should get Top 10 real soon. Brad has regained a little on Little Big Town but it's gonna take some work to get back ahead. Frankie still remains right ahead of Brantley as both continue to decently well. Eric Paslay has really struggled this week and I think he'll get a Grace week but I don't see him recovering. Michael Ray continues to close in on Eric little by little and if Eric even lasts he could pass Eric. ZBB looks to have the last spot in the Top 20 due to Luke Bryan Games having the bottom fall out on it. But Luke looks to be closing in fast with his new song. Luke will have a nice debut with his new song Kick The Dust Up and should land right below the Top 20 while Games begins dropping and should fall out of the Top 20 Eric Church continues to look just outside the Top 20 and could land their next week. Rascal Flatts have picked the pace up and should land at #24 this week. But they still have their work cut out for the Top 20. Which is looking more difficult for them given the competition behind them. Dustin meanwhile has remained rather flat this week and should slip back a little. I still think he'll squeak a Top 20 peak. Thomas Rhett has also been a little more flat and will have to back up as well and both him and Dustin continue to battle each other for the higher position. Chris Janson continues to do really well and should benefit a lot next week if there's a housecleaning. Gloriana continues to really struggle and even if they make up their Grace week. I can't see them matching the peak. Maddie & Tae continue to do solid but will probably back up a space Brett Eldredge has hold on strong and should round out the Top 30. Kip Moore had an ok week but will get pushed out of the Top 30. Chase Rice has had an ok week while Reba continues to really struggle and it continue spot look like she won't get Top 30 at all. Hunter Hayes will also get a really solid debut and should debut at #34 Sam Hunt has cut thru the pack and look for next week for him to get in the Top 30. Dan + Shay has build a little airplay and looks to cut above the struggling songs. Lady A Big & Rich Parmalee continue to really struggle while Old Dominion has slowed down considerably. Cole Swindell has hit the breaks hard while I think this could be Mickey's last week. EYB continues to move slowly. Brothers Osborne and Jana Kramer continue to fight each other with positions while Austin Webb is also moving slow. Steven Tyler is suffering from second week hangover syndrome and this could be the worst case yet. Mo Pitney continues to struggle but it's nothing compared to Gary Allan and Kacey Musgraves. None of them look even likely to hit the Top 40 (Biscuits technically hit #39 on MB but I don't seriously count it. Thompson Square and George Strait also are moving slow but Thompson Square looks more likely to be successful. Chase Bryant while not moving a ton is still doing decently well and could pass George. Drake White and Montgomery Gentry continue to do nothing while Kid Rock should move up a couple of notches Meanwhile Casey James Ashley Monroe LoCash and Cam also struggle to gain any radio play. I do believe Waterloo is gonna fall out and this time for good I just don't foresee it lasting a lot while longer. Raelynn Logan Mize continue to look just outside the chart while Lee Brice Toby Keith and Darius Rucker starting off really slow but should debut soon
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on May 26, 2015 22:42:28 GMT -5
Next week could be a house cleaning of sorts.
Tyler Farr, Keith & Erich, Tim & Catherine, Gloriana, and Reba are all weak and look like they're throwing in the towel. All 5 would be eligible for recurrency so I for one am hoping all 5 get pulled.
There's a few more songs near the bottom who are technically eligible to go recurrent but I think they'd all get a push from their respective labels and bullet next week. (Brothers Osborne, Cam, Gary Allan, Kacey Musgraves, Thompson Square, Casey James.)
If all 5 of the songs I listed go recurrent that'll free up some space. Assuming all 5 leave here's the most likely replacements.
Jake Owen's "Real Life" Chris Young's "I'm Comin' Over" Randy Houser's "We Went" Darius Rucker's "Southern Style" Chris Stapleton's "Traveller" RaeLynn's "For A Boy"
I could also see Logan Mize or Lee Brice getting on instead of RaeLynn.
Either way it's a much needed clearing that I hope all happens this coming week. They've all peaked the 5 so It's time.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2015 1:46:28 GMT -5
I won't be able to do chart projections on Sunday, (I'll be on a cross-country flight most of the day) but if I have time I might try to do them on Saturday. Otherwise hopefully I'll be back at it on June 7 :)
The good news is that Monday's chart should bring us the biggest house-cleaning we've seen in quite some time. Tyler Farr and Keith Urban/Eric Church will definitely be going recurrent. Gloriana will leave as well. Reba and Mickey could get pulled if they have bad weeks (it would be week 21 for both of them), but it's too early to say. Kacey Musgraves, Gary Allan, Thompson Square, Casey James, and Cam are all eligible to go recurrent (all have been bullet-less for the last 2 weeks), but I think Kacey and Thompson Square will re-bullet. I see Gary going recurrent, however, and I think both Casey and Cam might as well.
I expect it will be the last week for Billy's "Don't It" and Luke's "Games" as well. Tim McGraw and Brad Paisley won't last much longer, and I think Rascal Flatts will be gone in another 2-3 weeks ("Riot" should go top 20 on Monday. After that, I expect Big Machine will let it go). Dustin Lynch and Chase Rice are also eligible to go recurrent (only one bad week is all it takes), but I expect both of them to hang on for at least a few more weeks yet.
And there are other artists too, especially down in the 40's and 50's, that won't last much longer (Austin Webb, probably Mo Pitney and Drake White, Montgomery Gentry, Waterloo Revival, probably Lady A, Big & Rich, maybe Frankie Ballard and Eric Church too, and even King George). And even though I think artists like Kacey Musgraves, Thompson Square, Eli Young Band, etc. will last for a little while longer, I'm not sure if I see any of their songs eventually turning into hits.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2015 3:50:44 GMT -5
I won't be able to do chart projections on Sunday, (I'll be on a cross-country flight most of the day) but if I have time I might try to do them on Saturday. Otherwise hopefully I'll be back at it on June 7 :) The good news is that Monday's chart should bring us the biggest house-cleaning we've seen in quite some time. Tyler Farr and Keith Urban/Eric Church will definitely be going recurrent. Gloriana will leave as well. Reba and Mickey could get pulled if they have bad weeks (it would be week 21 for both of them), but it's too early to say. Kacey Musgraves, Gary Allan, Thompson Square, Casey James, and Cam are all eligible to go recurrent (all have been bullet-less for the last 2 weeks), but I think Kacey and Thompson Square will re-bullet. I see Gary going recurrent, however, and I think both Casey and Cam might as well. I expect it will be the last week for Billy's "Don't It" and Luke's "Games" as well. Tim McGraw and Brad Paisley won't last much longer, and I think Rascal Flatts will be gone in another 2-3 weeks ("Riot" should go top 20 on Monday. After that, I expect Big Machine will let it go). Dustin Lynch and Chase Rice are also eligible to go recurrent (only one bad week is all it takes), but I expect both of them to hang on for at least a few more weeks yet. And there are other artists too, especially down in the 40's and 50's, that won't last much longer (Austin Webb, probably Mo Pitney and Drake White, Montgomery Gentry, Waterloo Revival, probably Lady A, Big & Rich, maybe Frankie Ballard and Eric Church too, and even King George). And even though I think artists like Kacey Musgraves, Thompson Square, Eli Young Band, etc. will last for a little while longer, I'm not sure if I see any of their songs eventually turning into hits. Don't worry I'll do my own chart predictions if you can't make it. ;)
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2015 17:35:12 GMT -5
Here are my Top 60 Predictions Top 60 Airplay 1. A Thousand Horses Smoke 2. Florida Georgia Line Sipping On Fire 3. Kenny Chesney & Grace Potter Wild Child 4. Billy Currington Don't It (last week?) 5-8. Blake Shelton Sangria 5-8. Easton Corbin Baby Be My Love Song 5-8. Carrie Underwood Little Toy Guns 5-8. Kelsea Ballerini Love Me Like You Mean It 9. Tim McGraw Diamond Rings & Old Barstools 10-11. Canaan Smith Love You Like That 10-11. Little Big Town Girl Crush 12-14. Brantley Gilbert One Hell Of An Amen 12-14. Jason Aldean Tonight Looks Good On You 12-14. Brad Paisley Crushing It 15. Frankie Ballard Young & Crazy 16. Michael Ray Kiss You In The Morning 17. Zac Brown Band Loving You Easy 18. Luke Bryan Kick The Dust Up 19. Dustin Lynch Hell Of A Night 20-21. Thomas Rhett Crash & Burn 20-21. Rascal Flatts Riot 22. Eric Church Like A Wrecking Ball 23. Chris Janson Buy Me A Boat 24. Luke Bryan Games (last week) 25-26. Maddie & Tae Fly 25-26. Brett Eldredge Lose My Mind 27. Kip Moore I'm To Blame 28. Sam Hunt House Party 29. Chase Rice Gonna Wanna Tonight 30. Jake Owen Real Life 31. Dan + Shay Nothing Like You 32. Cole Swindell Let Me See Ya Girl 33-36. Big & Rich Run Away With You 33-36. Mickey Guyton Better Than You Left Me (last week?) 33-36. Old Dominion Break Up With Him 33-36. Parmalee Already Calling You Mine 37. Lady Antebellum Long Stretch Of Love 38. Eli Young Band Turn It On 39-40. Brothers Osborne Stay A Little Longer 39-40. Jana Kramer I Got The Boy 41. Austin Webb All Country On You 42-44. Kacey Musgraves Biscuits 42-44. Mo Pitney Country 42-44. Hunter Hayes 21 45-47. Thompson Square Trans Am 45-47. George Strait Let It Go 45-47. Chris Young I'm Coming Over 48-49. LoCash I Love This Life 48-49. Chase Bryant Little Bit Of You 50-53. Drake White It Feels Good 50-53. Montgomery Gentry Folks Like Us 50-53. Casey James Fall Apart 50-53. Kid Rock First Kiss 54-55. Ashley Monroe On To Something Good 54-55. Toby Keith 35 MPH Town 56-59. Cam My Mistake (last week?) 56-59. Darius Rucker Southern Style 56-59. Waterloo Revival Hit The Road 56-59. Lee Brice That Don't Sound Like You 60. Raelynn For A Boy Recurrent Songs Tyler Farr A Guy Walks Into A Bar (#1 Peak 43 Weeks) Keith Urban & Eric Church Raise Em Up (#1 Peak 19 Weeks) Gloriana Trouble (#24 Peak 31 Weeks) Reba Going Out Like That (#31 Peak 20 Weeks) Gary Allan Hangover Tonight (#42 Peak 13 Weeks) *FYI no numbers just generally where the songs are. Notes A Thousand Horses look to have their very first #1 song as they become the 3rd artist this year to celebrate their very first #1 on Billboard (Ashley Monroe and Tyler Farr being the other two. FGL looks to follow suit soon as I think A Thousand Horses will only spend a week at the top. Kenny & Grace have slowed a lot compared to the previous week but still look good to follow FGL. Billy Currington begins his ascent down and a little slower than I thought. It's possible for him to get a second week it's possible but unlikely. Blake keeps having amazing week after week. He looks to pass Easton and Carrie. Easton meanwhile had also had a solid week and looks to also pass Carrie. After the terrible one-day update Carrie is probably gonna start paying the price. Meanwhile Kelsea has caught up to Easton and Carrie. Truly though right now all 4 of them (Blake Kelsea Easton Carrie) they are all right now all right near with each other. Tim McGraw and Catherine have bounced back and are now doing well again and should land at #9. LBT and Canaan are both having solid week and look to be tussling with each other for the last Top 10 spot. Brantley and Jason have both closed in on Brad as Brad looks to be running out of energy. Frankie Ballard has slowed considerably compared to the previous week but is still looking solid. Michael Ray continues to make inroads to the Top 10 and looks to hit the Top 15 soon but ZBB and Luke Bryan are closing in fast. Dustin has had a solid week and should nab his fourth Top 20. Thomas and Rascal Flatts both are fighting for the last Top 20 spot I think Thomas will edge them out. Eric Church continues to really struggle as he should land at #22 but he's not looking so hot. Chris Janson and Maddie & Tae both continue to look solid. While Brett has closed in on Maddie & Tae they could hold him off one more week. As Games spends it's last week Kip Moore should nab himself into #27 but his week has been rather mediocre. Sam Hunt continues to blast his way thru as he should land at #28. Chase Rice should benefit from the housecleaning and get his second Top 30 but Chase is running on fumes basically (or is about too). Jake Owen looks ready for a really high debut dur to Clear Channel. I'd imagine. Dan + Shay and Cole Swindell have looked to emerge away from the struggling songs. Meanwhile Parmalee Mickey Guyton Big & Rich and Old Dominion continue to really struggle (well Old Dominion hit a brick wall). Lady A though really had an ugly week. I'm not even sure if they'll get Top 30 given the digital sales. Jana Kramer Eli Young Band and Brothers Osborne should round out the Top 40. I'm about 55% sure Gary Allan will leave he looks to be on fumes and by fumes I mean he's done. Austin Webb should be right outside the Top 40 while Kacey and Mo struggle and deal with the hungover Hunter Hayes. Meanwhile Thompson Square and George Strait will have to welcome Chris Young as they all will be in the #45-#47 range. While LoCash, Chase Bryant, Montgomery Gentry, Drake White all continue to struggle Kid Dock should move along nicely. Ashley Monroe Toby Keith and Cam all do very bad (I'm not sure Cam will make it, but I'll leave her on) Darius should finally get on the charts along with Lee Brice while Waterloo is fighting to stay on. Finally I have Raelynn at #60 but I could see her Logan Mize Chris Stapleton heck put in Randy Houser Lucy Angel as well any of them could debut or re-enter.
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2015 22:43:00 GMT -5
Surprise! My projections are here :)
01) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (46.300 million) 02) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (42.880) 03-04) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (39.250) 03-04) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (39.250) 05-06) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (34.170) 05-06) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (33.870) 07-08) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (33.530) 07-08) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (33.130) 09) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (28.770) 10) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (26.400) 11) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (25.380) 12) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (24.380) 13) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (23.960) 14) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (23.540) 15) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (22.340) 16) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (21.170) 17-18) Luke Bryan – “Kick The Dust Up” (16.330) 17-18) Zac Brown Band – “Loving You Easy” (16.330) 19-21) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (12.750) 19-21) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (12.720) 19-21) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (12.410) 22-23) Chris Janson – “Buy Me A Boat” (11.640) 22-23) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (11.570) 24) Luke Bryan – “Games” (10.830) [last week] 25) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (10.200) 26) Brett Eldredge – “Lose My Mind” (9.780) 27-29) Sam Hunt – “House Party” (9.400) 27-29) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (9.180) 27-29) Jake Owen – “Real Life” (9.180) [NEW!] 30) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (7.980) 31) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (6.840) ** 32) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” (6.420) 33-37) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (5.980) 33-37) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (5.940) 33-37) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (5.790) 33-37) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (5.780) 33-37) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (5.770) 38) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (5.460) 39) Eli Young Band – “Turn It On” (4.390) 40-41) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (3.970) 40-41) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (3.920) 42) Mo Pitney – “Country” (3.510) 43) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (3.260) 44) Kacey Musgraves – “Biscuits” (2.850) 45-50) Hunter Hayes – “21” (2.350) 45-50) Gary Allan – “Hangover Tonight” (2.340) ** 45-50) George Strait – “Let It Go” (2.150) 45-50) Thompson Square – “Trans Am” (2.100) 45-50) Chase Bryant – “Little Bit Of You” (2.100) 45-50) Chris Young – “I’m Comin’ Over” (2.050) [NEW!] 51-54) Drake White – “It Feels Good” 51-54) LoCash – “I Love This Life” 51-54) Casey James – “Fall Apart” 51-54) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” 55-56) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” 55-56) Darius Rucker – “Southern Style” [NEW!] 57) Kid Rock – “First Kiss” 58-60) Ashley Monroe – “On To Something Good” 58-60) Toby Keith – “35 mph Town” 58-60) Cam – “My Mistake” 58-60) Aaron Watson – “That Look”
Bubbling Under:
...RaeLynn – “For A Boy” ...Steven Tyler – “Love Is Your Name” ...Granger Smith – “Backroad Song” ...Randy Houser – “We Went” ...Chris Stapleton – “Traveller” ...Lee Brice – “That Don’t Sound Like You” ...Logan Mize – “Can’t Get Away From A Good Time”
Going Recurrent:
* Keith Urban's "Raise 'Em Up" feat. Eric Church (19 weeks, #1 peak) * Tyler Farr's "A Guy Walks Into A Bar" (43 weeks, #1 peak) * Gloriana's "Trouble" (31 weeks, #24 peak)
** Reba's "Going Out Like That" - 40% chance of going recurrent ** Gary Allan's "Hangover Tonight" - 45% chance of going recurrent
Comments:
A Thousand Horses are set to pick up their first #1 hit with debut single "Smoke". Look for Florida Georgia Line to move up to #2, with Kenny Chesney sitting behind FGL in the line for #1. After Kenny we've got a big 4-way battle brewing with Blake Shelton, Easton Corbin, Kelsea Ballerini, and Carrie Underwood. I'd guess that, when all is said and done, perhaps 3 out of these 4 will go #1 (on both BB and MB), but again, that's just a guess. I'd still pick Easton to be the most likely one to fall short, although he's had a solid week. Tim McGraw has also rebounded this week, but like Easton, I see Tim peaking in the top 5 at best (and he might not even get that high).
LBT's "Girl Crush" should move up to #10--they're starting to pull away from Canaan Smith ever so slightly now. Look for Jason Aldean to jump up to #12, with Brad Paisley inching up to #13. Both Brantley Gilbert and Frankie Ballard will enter the top 15, and it looks like we've got a 3-way battle among Thomas Rhett, Dustin Lynch, and Rascal Flatts for the last two top 20 spots...one of the 3 will likely miss out and have to wait until next week or maybe even 2 charts from now.
Chris Janson should bound up several more spots this week, perhaps finishing just ahead of the struggling Eric Church. Maddie & Tae will move into the top 25, and Jake Owen is set to score an impressive top 30 debut with "Real Life". Sam Hunt is also on the move big time already--"House Party" should crash the top 30 quite easily, which is extremely impressive as Sam's add date is tomorrow. Brett Eldredge has also had a good week, while Kip Moore continues to move somewhat slowly. And it looks like Chase Rice will finally enter the top 30...in his 30th chart week, lol.
You'll notice that I've got Reba at #31, but I must warn you that it's entirely possible she'll be sent recurrent. I left her in my projections, although I think she's got at least a 40% chance of being sent recurrent. Last week was her first without a bullet, but since this is week 21 for "Going Out Like That", Billboard could elect to send her recurrent. Or, they could give her a grace week. She's only down about 350k on MB over the last 6 days, and I don't think that's a big enough drop for BB to send her recurrent...BUT, since she didn't have a bullet last week, you never know. They might not give her a grace week because of it (if it weren't for Jake Owen's Clear Channel premiere this week, then I'm almost positive Billboard would have had Reba at #30, even if she's without a bullet).
Anyway...all the songs in the 30's remain closely bunched together, although it looks like Cole Swindell might finally sneak to the front of the pack. Mickey Guyton has rebounded a bit this week--last week, despite being over 5 mil in audience, she got pushed out of the top 40. Congratulations, Mickey, you're probably the first artist to ever have 5 million and not rank in the top 40. That just shows how tough the chart is right now (usually 3 to 3.2 mil is enough to make top 40). Lady Antebellum and especially Eli Young Band continue to struggle, however.
Both Kacey Musgraves and Gary Allan need to re-bullet otherwise they'll be sent recurrent. I'm quite confident that Musgraves will pull it off, but with Gary I'm less sure. Two days ago I would have only given him a 25% chance to re-bullet, but his last 2 MB updates may have saved him, and now I give Gary a 55% chance to eek out a bullet. Maybe he just misses, though, in which case, "Hangover Tonight" will go recurrent.
Thompson Square, Casey James, and Cam all need to re-bullet otherwise they'd be done as well, but I think all 3 are safe. One of the Dallas stations came to Casey's rescue, and Thompson Square has increased by 65 spins on MB this week. With Cam it could be closer, but I do think she'll see a slight increase. Even if she does gain, though, she could potentially get bumped to New & Active / #61, as Aaron Watson is threatening to push someone out of the top 60. So yes, I'm aware that I have 4 songs occupying the 58-60 spots, but that's because it's too close to call. I would not at all be surprised if Aaron Watson pushes Cam, Ashley, or Toby out of the top 60.
Debuts (in addition to Jake Owen) will be Chris Young and Darius Rucker. Chris seems likely to crack the top 50 or at least come very close to it. I've got him just ahead of Drake White, Casey James, LoCash, etc, but checking in just behind George Strait, Thompson Square, and Chase Bryant. I'm also not entirely sure where Hunter Hayes' "21" will finish...anything in the 2-3 million range would not surprise me. There's a chance that Chris could come in as high as the mid 40's if he can sneak ahead of Gary, George, and the rest of the gang. Darius should debut in the mid 50's.
Most artists in the 40's and 50's continue to struggle though...Kacey, Gary, and Thompson Square might all be safe for a few more weeks, but they're still not gaining much. Austin Webb, George Strait, Drake White, LoCash, Montgomery Gentry, Ashley Monroe, Toby Keith, and others have all had slow weeks. Mo Pitney, Chase Bryant, and Waterloo Revival have done a little better this week, at least. I expect RaeLynn, Randy Houser, Chris Stapleton, Lee Brice, Logan Mize, and Steven Tyler to remain on the outside looking in.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 1, 2015 14:04:56 GMT -5
1. A Thousand Horses Smoke 2. Florida Georgia Line Sipping On Fire 3. Kenny Chesney & Grace Potter Wild Child 4. Billy Currington Don't It (last week?) 5-8. Blake Shelton Sangria 5-8. Easton Corbin Baby Be My Love Song 5-8. Carrie Underwood Little Toy Guns 5-8. Kelsea Ballerini Love Me Like You Mean It 9. Tim McGraw Diamond Rings & Old Barstools 10-11. Canaan Smith Love You Like That 10-11. Little Big Town Girl Crush
01) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (46.300 million) 02) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (42.880) 03-04) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (39.250) 03-04) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (39.250) 05-06) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (34.170) 05-06) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (33.870) 07-08) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (33.530) 07-08) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (33.130) 09) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (28.770) 10) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (26.400)
Looking similar here.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 14:25:13 GMT -5
1. A Thousand Horses Smoke 2. Florida Georgia Line Sipping On Fire 3. Kenny Chesney & Grace Potter Wild Child 4. Billy Currington Don't It (last week?) 5-8. Blake Shelton Sangria 5-8. Easton Corbin Baby Be My Love Song 5-8. Carrie Underwood Little Toy Guns 5-8. Kelsea Ballerini Love Me Like You Mean It 9. Tim McGraw Diamond Rings & Old Barstools 10-11. Canaan Smith Love You Like That 10-11. Little Big Town Girl Crush 01) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (46.300 million) 02) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (42.880) 03-04) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (39.250) 03-04) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (39.250) 05-06) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (34.170) 05-06) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (33.870) 07-08) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (33.530) 07-08) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (33.130) 09) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (28.770) 10) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (26.400) Looking similar here. I'm gonna assume sarcasm.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 1, 2015 14:26:51 GMT -5
1. A Thousand Horses Smoke 2. Florida Georgia Line Sipping On Fire 3. Kenny Chesney & Grace Potter Wild Child 4. Billy Currington Don't It (last week?) 5-8. Blake Shelton Sangria 5-8. Easton Corbin Baby Be My Love Song 5-8. Carrie Underwood Little Toy Guns 5-8. Kelsea Ballerini Love Me Like You Mean It 9. Tim McGraw Diamond Rings & Old Barstools 10-11. Canaan Smith Love You Like That 10-11. Little Big Town Girl Crush 01) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (46.300 million) 02) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (42.880) 03-04) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (39.250) 03-04) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (39.250) 05-06) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (34.170) 05-06) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (33.870) 07-08) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (33.530) 07-08) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (33.130) 09) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (28.770) 10) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (26.400) Looking similar here. I'm gonna assume sarcasm. None taken. I enjoyed reading your first predictions as well.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 14:43:33 GMT -5
I'm gonna assume sarcasm. None taken. I enjoyed reading your first predictions as well. Sorry I'm not quite the expert like Jamie is I did rough estimations well hopefully I get some right.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 1, 2015 14:59:39 GMT -5
None taken. I enjoyed reading your first predictions as well. Sorry I'm not quite the expert like Jamie is I did rough estimations well hopefully I get some right. I'm sure you will.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 19:03:32 GMT -5
Country Airplay *** No. 1 (1 week)*** "Smoke" A Thousand Horses Debut/Greatest Gainer No. 29 "Real Life" Jake Owen Debut No. 45 "I'm Comin' Over" Chris Young Debut No. 54 "Southern Style" Darius Rucker
And here's the little blurb on A Thousand Horses' debut single going #1:
**
Jake Owen debuted exactly where I expected--there was a chance he could've entered at #27 or #28 but I expected #29, just below Sam Hunt and Kip Moore. Chris Young came in at the high end of the 'range' I was projecting, and Darius came in about 1 spot higher than I thought he would, but I was pretty close :)
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 19:10:54 GMT -5
I was just about one off. Not bad considering the fact I don't have an AllAccess account. Now let's see if anyone re-entered.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Jun 1, 2015 23:24:58 GMT -5
I had a feeling that one of the non-oldies would go in addition to Tyler/Keith/Gloriana, thus letting Aaron re-enter...I dunno, it just felt like that hunch would turn out. Really wouldn't mind seeing Chase Rice's song die now. 30 weeks and just now to #30? Give it up, Columbia.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 1, 2015 23:45:41 GMT -5
I had a feeling that one of the non-oldies would go in addition to Tyler/Keith/Gloriana, thus letting Aaron re-enter...I dunno, it just felt like that hunch would turn out. Highlights only show new entries to the chart though, so it's still possible that a re-entry could've happened. There's been a lot of songs fighting back-and-forth over the last couple positions in the Top 60 for weeks now, so it's not unlikely.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2015 7:10:13 GMT -5
Ok I'm only doing the Top 30 from now on. So here is my Top 30
1. Sipping On Fire 2. Wild Child 3. Little Toy Guns 4-5. Love Me Like You Mean It 4-5. Sangria 6. Baby Be My Love Song 7. Smoke [last week] 8. Don't It [last week] 9-10. Diamond Rings & Old Barstools 9-10. Tonight Looks Good On You 11. Love You Like That 12. Girl Crush 13. Crushing It 14. One Hell Of An Amen 15. Kiss You In The Morning 16. Young & Crazy 17. Kick The Dust Up 18. Loving You Easy 19. Hell Of A Night 20-21. Crash & Burn 20-21. Like A Wrecking Ball 22-23. Riot 22-23. Buy Me A Boat 24. House Party 25-26. Fly 25-26. Lose My Mind 27. I'm To Blame 28. Gonna Wanna Tonight 29. Going Out Like That 30. Let Me See Ya Girl
There you guys go feel free to comment
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2015 10:35:08 GMT -5
I'm nice and early today with my top 60 projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart :) Enjoy, and happy Sunday!
01) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (45.560) 02) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (42.330) 03) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (38.790) 04-05) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (38.300) 04-05) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (38.300) 06) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (37.700) 07) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (36.180) [last week?] 08) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (33.950) [last week] 09) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (31.460) 10) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (31.080) 11) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (28.300) 12) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (27.410) 13) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (25.730) 14) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (25.000) 15) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (23.800) 16) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (23.230) 17-18) Zac Brown Band – “Loving You Easy” (20.180) 17-18) Luke Bryan – “Kick The Dust Up” (19.970) 19) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (15.980) 20-21) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (14.500) 20-21) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (14.250) 22-23) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (13.660) 22-23) Chris Janson – “Buy Me A Boat” (13.410) 24) Sam Hunt – “House Party” (12.020) 25-26) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (11.680) 25-26) Brett Eldredge – “Lose My Mind” (11.410) 27) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (10.340) 28) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (9.050) 29-30) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (7.840) 29-30) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” (7.570) 31) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (7.220) 32-33) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (6.480) 32-33) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (6.300) 34) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (6.010) 35-36) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (5.600) 35-36) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (5.600) [last week?] 37-38) Jake Owen – “Real Life” (4.750) 37-38) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (4.750) 39) Mo Pitney – “Country” (4.500) 40-41) Billy Currington – “Drinkin’ Town With A Football Problem” (4.250) [NEW!] 40-41) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (4.130) 42-43) Eli Young Band – “Turn It On” (3.940) 42-43) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (3.850) 44-45) Hunter Hayes – “21” (3.310) 44-45) Chris Young – “I’m Comin’ Over” (3.210) 46-49) George Strait – “Let It Go” (2.450) 46-49) Kacey Musgraves – “Biscuits” (2.350) 46-49) LoCash – “I Love This Life” (2.350) 46-49) Chase Bryant – “Little Bit Of You” (2.350) 50-51) Drake White – “It Feels Good” (2.070) 50-51) Thompson Square – “Trans Am” 52-55) Darius Rucker – “Southern Style” 52-55) Aaron Watson – “That Look” 52-55) Casey James – “Fall Apart” 52-55) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” 56) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” 57-58) Ashley Monroe – “On To Something Good” 57-58) Randy Houser – “We Went” [NEW!] 59-60) Kid Rock – “First Kiss” 59-60) RaeLynn – “For A Boy” [Re-Entry]
Bubbling Under:
...Lee Brice – “That Don’t Sound Like You” ...Cam – “My Mistake” ...Toby Keith – “35 mph Town” ...Granger Smith – “Backroad Song” ...Craig Campbell – “Tomorrow Tonight” ...Logan Mize – “Can’t Get Away From A Good Time” ...Steven Tyler – “Love Is Your Name” ...Chris Stapleton – “Traveller”
Going Recurrent:
* Luke Bryan's "Games" (13 weeks, #20 peak)
Comments:
Florida Georgia are set to pick up their 7th Billboard Country Airplay #1 in 8 tries (only "This Is How We Roll" missed the top spot; it peaked at #2, blocked by Luke Bryan's "Play It Again"). Kenny Chesney will move up to #2, and below him the battle rages on among Carrie, Kelsea, Blake, and Easton, although it looks like Easton has shifted to the back of the pack somewhat. I've got Carrie re-passing both Easton and Blake and bounding up 7-3 in the process, although don't expect her to finish that far ahead of Kelsea and Blake. Meanwhile, look for Jason Aldean's red hot "Tonight Looks Good On You" to push into the top 10, with LBT getting pushed back (at least for the time being). TLGOY will be Jason's 21st top 10 hit.
In his 44th week, Canaan Smith should move up to #11, and he'll likely be entering the top 10 a week from now. Michael Ray looks likely to pass Frankie Ballard and claim his first top 15 hit. Zac Brown Band and Luke Bryan continue to see huge gains, and Dustin Lynch has really picked up the pace as well. Eric Church could claim the last top 20 spot from Thomas Rhett, with Rascal Flatts still on the outside looking in. Chris Janson and Sam Hunt are moving up quickly through the 20's, with Maddie & Tae, Brett Eldredge, and Kip Moore moving at a more moderate pace. And finally, after weeks sitting just outside the top 30, look for Reba to crash the party with "Going Out Like That". Cole Swindell will likely round out the top 30 with "Let Me See Ya Girl".
Big & Rich and Lady Antebellum continue to move slowly, and it looks like Mickey Guyton might finally be nearing the end of the road. Westwood One has completely abandoned "Better Than You Left Me" this week (as well as "Biscuits"...hmmmmm), and even though that won't translate to Billboard (W1 is Mediabase-only), Mickey just hasn't had a good week and I'm not sure if I see her recovering from this. Kacey is in even worse shape; in my opinion, "Biscuits" is all but done. One female that's had a pretty good week is Jana Kramer--she should cruise into the top 40. Mo Pitney has also had a solid week, with debut single "Country" set to crack the top 40 as well.
I'm expecting Billy Currington's new single "Drinkin' Town With A Football Problem" to debut right at #40, just ahead of Brothers Osborne. Eli Young Band has had a rough week; "Turn It On" continues to really struggle, along with the singles from George Strait, Drake White, and Thompson Square. Hunter Hayes has rebounded a bit this week, although it's gonna take quite a few weeks before "21" matches its debut week position (#32). Chris Young's "I'm Comin' Over" continues to look pretty good.
Aaron Watson isn't getting played on a lot of stations, but he's up to 63 spins in the last 7 days at KKBQ in Houston -- that's 1.414 million on Mediabase, which is gonna be at least 80-90% of his total audience. Houston alone could propel Watson close to the top 50 tomorrow. I'm expecting Randy Houser to finally debut, and I think RaeLynn will finally re-enter as well, although it could be somewhat close with her. I've got Lee Brice, Cam, and Toby Keith (in that order) as the first 3 out; I don't think Lee's going to quite get enough audience to debut, and both Cam and Toby have bled audience/spins this week, enough that I think they'll get pushed out of the top 60. Thus, I think RaeLynn gets the #60 spot, with a small bullet. Kid Rock has also had a rough week, but I think he'll manage to stay in the top 60.
Craig Campbell is off to a good start leading up to his add date, whereas Chris Stapleton continues to toil just outside the top 60. A few weeks back I was optimistic that Stapleton would chart (he narrowly missed the #60 spot one week), but now it's looking like he'll need more stations to jump on board if "Traveller" is going to get in, as some of the early adopters have reduced his airplay a bit.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Jun 7, 2015 11:47:53 GMT -5
I think, if Mediabase is any indication, there's a chance that Billy could still go by the spins clause - but this'll definitely be closer than the other recent spins clause departures.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2015 23:39:16 GMT -5
I think, if Mediabase is any indication, there's a chance that Billy could still go by the spins clause - but this'll definitely be closer than the other recent spins clause departures. I doubt it. Billy's down 1642 spins on MB in the last 7 days; even if he were to lose 1600 or even 1700 spins on BB, that would put him down in the 5300-5400 range (he had 7016 spins on Monday's BB chart). LBT had 4702 spins on Monday, Jason had 4451, and Canaan had 4558. Jason might be able to pass Billy in spins, but he'll be taking LBT's top 10 spot. So that means either LBT or Canaan would have to finish above Billy in spins. LBT's MB bullet is only 145 right now. Canaan's is closer to 500, but that'll probably translate to a gain of 450 spins (at most) on BB, and so I doubt he'll finish much higher than 5000, if he even gets that much at all. I think Billy would have to lose about 500-600 spins in tomorrow's update alone for me to think there'd be a decent chance he'll leave, and I highly doubt he'll lose that much. I think it's 95% likely that Billy gets one more week. He'll most likely be #8 in audience and #10 in spins (possibly #9 if Jason doesn't quite pass him in spins). *Also, in the scenario I just described, Billy would lose almost 100% of what he lost on MB, and that's unlikely. The ratio will probably be closer to 0.9...meaning it's likely he'll lose 90% (give or take a bit) of the amount of spins he lost on MB during the June 1-7 tracking period. So I think he'll probably lose around 1500 spins, and finish around 5500, maybe just a little less, but still a full 400-500 spins ahead of Canaan.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2015 8:23:24 GMT -5
Ok time for my Top 40 Predictions (I will find out how correct I am Wednesday).
1. Wild Child 2. Love Me Like You Mean It 3. Sangria 4. Little Toy Guns 5. Baby Be My Love Song 6. Sippin On Fire [last week?] 7. Diamond Rings & Old Barstools 8. Tonight Looks Good On You 9. Love You Like That 10. Girl Crush 11. Crushing It 12. One Hell Of An Amen 13. Kiss You In The Morning 14-15. Young & Crazy 14-15. Kick The Dust Up 16. Loving You Easy 17. Hell Of A Night 18. Like A Wrecking Ball 19. Crash & Burn 20. Riot 21-22. House Party 21-22. Buy Me A Boat 23. Fly 24. Lose My Mind 25-27. John Cougar John Deere John 3:16 25-27. I'm To Blame 25-27. Gonna Wanna Tonight 28. Let Me See Ya Girl 29. Going Out Like That 30. Long Stretch Of Love 31-32. Break Up With Him 31-32. Nothing Like You 33-34. Already Calling You Mine 33-34. Real Life 35. Run Away With You 36. Better Than You Left Me 37. Stay A Little Longer 38-39. I Got The Boy 38-39. I'm Coming Over 40. Country
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2015 10:12:46 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart! :)
01) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (44.520) 02) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (41.280) 03) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (40.840) 04) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (39.450) 05) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (38.890) 06) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (37.540) [last week?] 07) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (34.880) 08) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (33.920) 09) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (31.630) 10) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (30.140) 11) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (26.540) 12) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (25.940) 13) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (24.910) 14) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (24.580) 15) Luke Bryan – “Kick The Dust Up” (23.500) 16) Zac Brown Band – “Loving You Easy” (22.750) 17) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (17.970) 18) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (16.200) 19) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (15.660) 20-22) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (14.430) 20-22) Chris Janson – “Buy Me A Boat” (14.140) 20-22) Sam Hunt – “House Party” (14.110) 23) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (12.680) 24) Brett Eldredge – “Lose My Mind” (12.370) 25-27) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (10.230) 25-27) Keith Urban – “John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16” (10.150) [NEW!] 25-27) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (9.920) 28) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” (8.810) 29) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (8.390) 30-32) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (8.000) 30-32) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (7.830) 30-32) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (7.830) 33) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (6.920) 34-35) Jake Owen – “Real Life” (6.490) 34-35) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (6.450) 36-37) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (5.790) 36-37) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (5.540) 38) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (4.980) 39-40) Mo Pitney – “Country” (4.670) 39-40) Chris Young – “I’m Comin’ Over” (4.440) 41) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (3.930) 42) Hunter Hayes – “21” (3.300) 43-44) Chase Bryant – “Little Bit Of You” (2.520) 43-44) LoCash – “I Love This Life” (2.430) 45-49) Darius Rucker – “Southern Style” (2.200) 45-49) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” (2.200) 45-49) Aaron Watson – “That Look” (2.070) 45-49) Drake White – “It Feels Good” (2.060) 45-49) Thompson Square – “Trans Am” (2.030) 50) Billy Currington – “Drinkin’ Town With A Football Problem” (1.750) 51-52) Eli Young Band – “Turn It On” [last week] 51-52) Florida Georgia Line – “Anything Goes” [NEW!] 53-57) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” 53-57) Toby Keith – “35 mph Town” 53-57) Randy Houser – “We Went” 53-57) George Strait – “Let It Go” [last week?] 53-57) Craig Campbell – “Tomorrow Tonight” [NEW!] 58) Casey James – “Fall Apart” [last week] 59-60) Kid Rock – “First Kiss” 59-60) Kacey Musgraves – “Biscuits” [last week]
Bubbling Under:
...Steven Tyler – “Love Is Your Name” ...Lee Brice – “That Don’t Sound Like You” ...RaeLynn – “For A Boy” ...Ashley Monroe – “On To Something Good” ...Granger Smith – “Backroad Song” ...The Cadillac Three – “White Lightning” ...Cam – “Burning House” ...Logan Mize – “Can’t Get Away From A Good Time” ...Miranda Lambert f/ Little Big Town – “Smokin’ And Drinkin’”
Dropping Off:
* Billy Currington's "Don't It" (33 weeks, #1 peak) * A Thousand Horses' "Smoke" (22 weeks, #1 peak) * Ashley Monroe's "On To Something Good" (12 weeks, #53 peak)
Comments:
Kenny Chesney is set to score his 25th #1 on Monday with "Wild Child". It'll also be the first country airplay #1 for featured vocalist Grace Potter. Kelsea Ballerini should climb to #2, just ahead of Blake Shelton. Kelsea is of course aiming to be the first female artist since Carrie Underwood to take a debut single to #1. Speaking of Carrie, she's hit the brakes this week, and it seems to me that Sony is either planning on making their move after Kelsea, or perhaps they're going to let things play out for a week or two and then see if they can make a move. Easton Corbin has really slowed down, but he should move up to #5, and the path is clear for him to at least get as high as #4 next week (when Kenny will fall below).
Tim McGraw should move up to #7, with Jason Aldean moving up to #8. Canaan Smith will finally enter the top 10 after 45 chart weeks, and Little Big Town will re-enter the top 10 with their massive Platinum hit "Girl Crush". Brad Paisley has really slowed down, but he should inch up to #11 tomorrow, followed by Brantley Gilbert, Michael Ray, and Frankie Ballard. Luke Bryan will move into the top 15, with Thomas Rhett returning to the top 20. Rascal Flatts seems likely to make the top 20 as well, although it's not a sure thing, as both Chris Janson and Sam Hunt are projecting to be pretty close behind.
Keith Urban will score a splashy debut thanks to his iHeartMedia world premiere; look for "John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16" to come in somewhere in the 25-27 range...#25 if he can sneak ahead of Kip, #27 if he slots in just behind Chase Rice, and #26 if he lands between the two of them. I think Old Dominion has the edge for the last top 30 spot, although Dan + Shay and Lady A are in the hunt as well. Mickey Guyton continues to remain stagnant in the 30's, as the songs behind her creep ever closer. Jana Kramer and Mo Pitney both entered the top 40 last week, but neither has had an impressive week this week. I've got Chris Young moving into the top 40 in just his 3rd week, with Austin Webb inching ever closer to his 2nd top 40 hit ("Slip On By" peaked at #40 on Billboard in early 2014).
Most artists outside the top 40 continue to gain very little, although most of the slow-climbers will gain a small handful of positions this week, thanks to a couple of recurrents in addition to the collapse of songs by Kacey Musgraves, George Strait, and the Eli Young Band. Florida Georgia Line's new single "Anything Goes" will easily debut, most likely just outside the top 50, and Craig Campbell also seems a lock to debut. I think George and Casey will probably spend 1 more week on the chart, but I wouldn't be surprised if Kacey fell off a week early, perhaps yielding her spot to Steven Tyler or maybe Lee Brice. I've got Ashley Monroe falling out of the top 60 for the 2nd time; this won't qualify as her going recurrent, but unfortunately I don't think she'll be able to re-enter again, simply because there are too many other singles to compete with, and Ashley hasn't really gained anything for the last couple of months.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2015 8:01:59 GMT -5
Top 40 predictions *This week 2 songs are on the bubble so I am gonna go down to 42 if necessary.
1. Love Me Like You Mean It 2. Sangria 3. Little Toy Guns 4. Baby Be My Love Song 5. Diamond Rings & Old Barstools 6. Tonight Looks Good On You 7-8. Wild Child 7-8. Love You Like That 9. Girl Crush 10. One Hell Of An Amen 11-12. Crushing It 11-12. Kiss You In The Morning 13. Kick The Dust Up 14. Young & Crazy 15. Loving You Easy 16. Hell Of A Night 17-19. Like A Wrecking Ball 17-19. House Party 17-19. Crash & Burn 20. Buy Me A Boat 21. Lose My Mind 22. Riot (could go recurrent I think about a 45% chance 23. Fly 24-26. I'm To Blame 24-26. Gonna Wanna Tonight 24-26. Real Life 27-28. Nothing Like You 27-28. Let Me See Ya Girl 29. Going Out Like That (last week?) 30-32. John Cougar John Deere John 3:16 30-32. Break Up With Him 30-32. Long Stretch Of Love 33. Already Calling You Mine 34. Run Away With You 35. Stay A Little Longer 36. Better Than You Left Me (don't be surprised to see her leave either about 55% sure with this one. 37-39. I'm Coming Over 37-39. I Got The Boy 37-39. All Country On You 40. Anything Goes 41. 21 42-45. Little Bit Of You 42-45. I Love This Life 42-45. It Feels Good 42-45. Southern Style
Bubbling under could if Mickey and Rascal Flatts leave it will be close. Reba could if she suffers a nasty update (doubt it).
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2015 9:49:18 GMT -5
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart :)
01) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (46.250) 02) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (44.560) 03) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (41.550) 04) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (39.620) 05) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (37.160) 06) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (36.430) 07) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (33.580) 08) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (31.250) [last week] 09) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (30.370) 10) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (27.620) 11) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (26.960) 12) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (26.220) 13-14) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (25.020) 13-14) Luke Bryan – “Kick The Dust Up” (24.650) 15) Zac Brown Band – “Loving You Easy” (23.960) 16) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (19.930) 17-18) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (17.610) 17-18) Sam Hunt – “House Party” (17.590) 19) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (16.380) 20) Chris Janson – “Buy Me A Boat” (15.990) 21-22) Brett Eldredge – “Lose My Mind” (13.770) 21-22) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (13.660) [40% chance of going recurrent] 23) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (12.850) 24) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (11.150) 25) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (10.660) 26-30) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (9.370) 26-30) Jake Owen – “Real Life” (9.370) 26-30) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” (9.130) 26-30) Keith Urban – “John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16” (9.000) 26-30) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (8.950) 31-32) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (8.300) 31-32) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (8.020) 33) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (7.300) 34) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (6.590) 35) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (5.750) 36) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (5.420) [30% chance of going recurrent] 37-38) Chris Young – “I’m Comin’ Over” (4.800) 37-38) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (4.700) 39-41) Mo Pitney – “Country” (4.420) 39-41) Hunter Hayes – “21” (4.270) 39-41) Florida Georgia Line – “Anything Goes” (4.270) 42) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (3.560) 43-44) Chase Bryant – “Little Bit Of You” (2.720) 43-44) LoCash – “I Love This Life” (2.680) 45-46) Drake White – “It Feels Good” (2.340) 45-46) Darius Rucker – “Southern Style” (2.330) 47-49) Billy Currington – “Drinkin’ Town With A Football Problem” (2.000) 47-49) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” (2.000) 47-49) Thompson Square – “Trans Am” (1.990) 50-52) Casey James – “Fall Apart” (1.700) 50-52) Aaron Watson – “That Look” 50-52) Toby Keith – “35 mph Town” 53-54) Craig Campbell – “Tomorrow Tonight” 53-54) Miranda Lambert f/ Little Big Town – “Smokin’ And Drinkin’” [NEW!] 55-56) Kid Rock – “First Kiss” 55-56) Randy Houser – “We Went” 57-59) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” [last week] 57-59) George Strait – “Let It Go” [last week] 57-59) Kenny Chesney – “Save It For A Rainy Day” [NEW!] 60) The Cadillac Three – “White Lightning” [NEW!]
Bubbling Under:
...Granger Smith - "Backroad Song" ...RaeLynn - "For A Boy" ...Steven Tyler - "Love Is Your Name" ...Lee Brice - "That Don't Sound Like You" ...Tyler Farr - "Withdrawals"
Dropping Off:
* Florida Georgia Line's "Sippin' On Fire" (20 weeks, #1 peak) * Eli Young Band's "Turn It On" (16 weeks, #37 peak) * Lee Brice's "That Don't Sound Like You"
Comments:
Kelsea Ballerini will be the first solo female artist to take her debut single to #1 in more than 9 years, since Carrie Underwood's "Jesus, Take The Wheel" spent the last of 6 weeks at #1 on the Billboard chart dated February 25, 2006. A big congrats to Kelsea and Black River! Now, let's just hope that it doesn't take another 9 years before another female newcomer goes #1 with her debut...
Speaking of Carrie, look for her "Little Toy Guns" to rebound back to #3, a safe distance behind Blake's "Sangria", which seems likely to follow Kelsea at #1. Easton Corbin continues to hang in there; "Baby Be My Love Song" should inch up a notch to #4, with Tim McGraw set to enter the top 5, followed by Jason Aldean and Canaan Smith. Little Big Town has had a slow week, but I have a hunch that they might start to see more conversions next week, when Kelsea inevitably starts shedding airplay.
Brantley Gilbert should leapfrog Brad Paisley and move into the top 10. Zac Brown Band should move into the top 15, with Sam Hunt and Chris Janson surging into the top 20. Look for Chase Rice to bound up a few spots, while Kip Moore and Maddie & Tae continue to move slowly. Dan + Shay have had a nice week, and Jake Owen's "Real Life" continues its hot start -- look for "Real Life" to blast back into the top 30. Hunter Hayes and Florida Georgia Line look to chase down Mo Pitney as they battle for the last top 40 spot. Jana Kramer, Austin Webb, Chase Bryant, LoCash, Drake White, Darius Rucker, Montgomery Gentry, Thompson Square, and Toby Keith have all had pretty slow weeks.
I'll say there's about a 40% chance that Rascal Flatts goes recurrent this week, and maybe a 30% chance that Mickey Guyton goes recurrent. Mickey already got a grace week this past Monday, so she needs to re-bullet tomorrow or she'll automatically go recurrent. I think there's about a 70% chance that Mickey will eek out a bullet, though, but it looks like it's gonna be close. Rascal Flatts is eligible for a grace week, but if their loss is big enough, Billboard could elect to send them recurrent.
Casey James might finally crack the top 50 this week (he'll likely need to re-pass Aaron Watson and stay ahead of Toby to do so), thanks in large part to KKBQ in Houston. Kid Rock should rebound a bit, while Waterloo Revival and George Strait will most likely spend their last week on the chart. Miranda Lambert and Little Big Town should have the Hot Shot Debut with "Smokin' And Drinkin'", and I expect Kenny Chesney's new one "Save It For A Rainy Day" to debut as well. Finally I've got The Cadillac Three sneaking in, just ahead of Granger Smith, RaeLynn, Steven Tyler, and the struggling Lee Brice.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2015 8:52:24 GMT -5
I just wanted to post here and say we should be getting a housecleaning in the next couple of weeks. This week should be Kenny, George and Waterloo. With Austin and Mickey looking to go amy week. Easton and Kelsea will leave the following week. Brad Paisley can't hold on for long. Casey James is also looking to leave soon.
Looking for new debuts lets see. The Cadilac Three Cam (she should be here soon) Raelynn (if she.can hold on Granger Smith Logan Mize Tyler Farr.
A lot could go down in the next couple of weeks.
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