On top of being busy, power is out where I live (I'm on mobile using data) so if there is going to be predictions don't expect them til real late tonight or early tomorrow morning.
Sad day.
😢😢
Good news. Power is back! Prediction time. Let's see what's happens as the charts continue to remain fluid and so many songs stubbornly stay on.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 601. Luke Combs “Beautiful Crazy”
2. Luke Bryan “What Makes You Country”
3-4. Jason Aldean “Girl Like You”
3-4. Scotty McCreery “This Is It”
5. Jordan Davis “Take It From Me”
6. Chris Stapleton “Millionaire”
7. Midland “Burn Out”
8. Riley Green “There Was This Girl”
9. Michael Ray “One That Got Away”
10. Old Dominion “Make It Sweet”
11. Brett Young “Here Tonight”
12. Jake Owen “Down to the Honky-tonk”
13. Carrie Underwood “Love Wins”
14. Jon Pardi “Night Shift”
15. Chase Rice “Eyes On You”
16. Cody Johnson “On My Way to You”
17. Kelsea Ballerini “Miss Me More”
18-19. Eli Young Band “Love Ain't”
18-19. Kane Brown “Good As You”
20. Brett Eldredge “Love Someone”
21. Tyler Rich “The Difference”
22. Morgan Wallen “Whiskey Glasses”
23. Lee Brice “Rumor”
24-26. Maren Morris “Girl”
24-26. Florida Georgia Line “Talk You Out of It”
24-26. George Strait “Every Little Honky Tonk Bar”
27. Rodney Atkins “Caught Up In The Country”
(last week?)(30% chance of going recurrent)28. Runaway June “Buy My Own Drinks”
29. Chris Young “Raised On Country”
30. LoCash “Feels Like A Party”
31. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town”
32. Randy Houser featuring Hillary Lindsey “What Whiskey Does”
33-36. Maddie & Tae “Friends Don't”
33-36. Eric Church “Some of It”
33-36. Morgan Evans “Day Drunk”
33-36. Cole Swindell “Love You Too Late”
37-39. Kacey Musgraves “Rainbow”
37-39. Carly Pearce “Closer to You”
37-39. Rascal Flatts “Back To Life”
(last week?)40-42. Brooks & Dunn/Luke Combs “Brand New Man”
40-42. Justin Moore “The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home”
40-42. Chris Lane “I Don't Know About You”
43. Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing”
44-45. Tim McGraw “Thought About You”
44-45. Tenille Townes “Somebody's Daughter”
46-48. Garth Brooks “Stronger Than Me”
46-48. HARDY “REDNECKER”
46-48. Dan + Shay “All To Myself”
49-50 Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To”
49-50. Dylan Schneider “How Does It Sound”
51. Dylan Scott “Nothing to Do Town”
52. Brothers Osborne “I Don't Remember Me (Before You)”
53-54. Lauren Alaina “Ladies In The 90s”
53-54. Matt Stell “Prayed For You”
55. Walker Hayes “90s Country”
56-57. Brad Paisley “Bucked Off”
(last week)56-57. Ashley McBryde “Girl Goin Nowhere”
58. Adam Hambrick “Rockin All Night Long”
59. Zac Brown Band “Someone I Used to Know”
60. Mitchell Tenpenny “Alcohol You Later”[/b](New!)[/b]
New and Active Section (in no particular order)Ryan Hurd “To a T”
Jason Aldean “Rearview Town”
Logan Mize “Better Off Gone”
Chris Janson “Good Vibes”
Travis Denning “After A Few”
Dierks Bentley “Living”
Going Recurrent or Drop outsThomas Rhett “Sixteen” |Peak #1| |Weeks: 26|
Commentary/HighlightsIt's the battle of the Lukes! Eh, not really. “Beautiful Crazy” had already such a huge lead on “What Makes You Country” that I have felt like it's been a foregone conclusion that Luke Combs would come out on top. Jason Aldean is a real slow faller with “Girl Like You” as it appears that Scotty McCreery could fall below Jason Aldean this week. Songs from Jordan Davis, Chris Stapleton, Midland, Riley Green, and Michael Ray continue to get Top 5 to Top 10 conversions. I don't think Midland and Chris Stapleton will last a ton longer as both songs are really up their in age (“Millionaire” at 45 weeks tomorrow, and “Burn Out will be at 46 weeks).
Old Dominion keeps their Top 10 streak alive as “Make It Sweet” should replace Thomas Rhett. Carrie Underwood and Jon Pardi continue to struggle as Chase Rice continues to close the gap with “Eyes On You”. Decent enough weeks for Kelsea Ballerini, Cody Johnson. Eli Young Band really slows down this week as Kane Brown surged into the Top 20 with “Good As You”. Brett Eldredge should pick up the last spot in the Top 20 with “Love Someone” in Week 34.
Tyler Rich sees a great rebound week after last week losing his bullet with “The Difference”. Morgan Wallen slows down with “Whiskey Glasses”. Maren Morris and Florida Georgia Line both see very slow weeks. “Girl” is young enough to where I think Maren Morris will be fine. Unfortunately I don't remain optimistic about “Talk You Out of It”, as Florida Georgia Line has really been racking up the weeks (Week 17). I do think Florida Georgia Line can make the Top 20 but I don't think Top 10 is likely at this point. Chris Young has really slowed down with “Raised On Country” which has caused Runaway June to really get some strong conversions and temporarily get back ahead of Chris Young as “Buy My Own Drinks” has one of the best weeks it has ever seen.
“What Happens In A Small Town” really makes a push this week and sees strong gains. Unfortunately for the other songs in the 30s, it's another week of very slow moving. Songs from Maddie & Tae, Randy Houser/Hillary Lindsey, Carly Pearce, Eric Church, Morgan Evans, and Cole Swindell see very slow weeks. As “Back To Life” by Rascal Flatts looks about ready to pull in the white flag.
Radio is giving the latest singles from Kacey Musgraves, Chris Lane, Tim McGraw, Tenille Townes (OTV), Jimmie Allen, and Dan + Shay solid weeks as all are looking great. On the flipside radio has given up on “Bucked Off” by Brad Paisley. Other singles from Lauren Alaina, Brothers Osborne, Garth Brooks, Ashley McBryde, Dylan Schneider, and Dylan Scott fail to gain much traction at all for the week. Mitchell Tenpenny should be the only debut this week with “Alcohol You Later” as he is off to a decent but modest start.
Songs I see leaving soonChris Stapleton “Millionaire”
Midland “Burn Out”
Carrie Underwood “Love Wins”
Tyler Rich “The Difference”
Rodney Atkins “Caught Up In The Country”
Randy Houser featuring Hillary Lindsey “What Whiskey Does”
Rascal Flatts “Back To Life”
Dylan Schneider “How Does It Sound”
Brad Paisley “Bucked Off”
Songs on the Hot SeatJon Pardi “Night Shift”
Eli Young Band “Love Ain't”
Brett Eldredge “Love Someone”
Florida Georgia Line “Talk You Out of It”
LoCash “Feels Like A Party” (sales)
Maddie & Tae “Friends Don't”
Garth Brooks “Stronger Than Me”
Brothers Osborne “I Don't Remember Me (Before You)”
Lauren Alaina “Ladies In The 90s” (the last 3 are all in the same boat, all songs that are just doing nothing in the 40s and 50s)
Next 3 Songs I see debuting or returning soonThomas Rhett “Look What God Gave Her”
Dierks Bentley “Living”
Jason Aldean “Rearview Town”
Closing ThoughtsSo a pretty standard week. Thomas Rhett leaves and while some songs succeed this week like Runaway June, Brantley Gilbert/Lindsay Ell, and Kacey Musgraves. Other songs struggle and fail to gain basically anything Randy Houser/Hillary Lindsey, Brad Paisley, and Dylan Schneider.
With next week having Thomas Rhett having an iHeartMedia debut, I hope we see a couple of other songs wave the white flag with Brad Paisley so the charts don't get more and more backed up.
Until next time. See everyone next Sunday for another round of predictions.