raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 18, 2019 14:10:18 GMT -5
Sorry guys for the wrong prediction on Carrie Underwood. You guys understand why I thought it was within the realm of possibility that she could go recurrent though right? I wasn't totally dumb for thinking "Love Wins" could go recurrent right? Also sorry for asking, I just feel like I should have seen it staying and I am annoyed that all the work I put in week in and week out for predictions (I put in a ton of effort every week) is always wrong somewhat and I somehow always find a way to miss the mark each week, with this week being probably my worst week yet at predictions. I will say from now on I am probably just doing the Top 40 because the bottom of the chart as well is so hard to predict on any level whatsoever. Unless their is a high want for me to do the bottom 20 songs. I think you're being too hard on yourself. They're called predictions - not "100% accurate guesses." You make your predictions based on the information you have - nobody is mocking you or anything like that for getting anything "wrong." Thanks. Sorry for being hard on myself, I just am frustrated with the amount of research I put into it, I still can't properly nail it most times. I don't think anyone was mocking now that I do think about it, I was just frustrated with this week in particular because I spent hours upon hours researching this week.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Mar 18, 2019 14:36:03 GMT -5
I think you're being too hard on yourself. They're called predictions - not "100% accurate guesses." You make your predictions based on the information you have - nobody is mocking you or anything like that for getting anything "wrong." Thanks. Sorry for being hard on myself, I just am frustrated with the amount of research I put into it, I still can't properly nail it most times. I don't think anyone was mocking now that I do think about it, I was just frustrated with this week in particular because I spent hours upon hours researching this week. Totally understandable!! I'm sure it's maddening. But you're not a computer - and we don't have all of Billboard's data - so cut yourself some slack. We all very much appreciate the time you spend on this, but nobody is expecting perfection! :)
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Mar 18, 2019 14:36:08 GMT -5
Yeah, we weren’t mocking you. :) I enjoy reading your predictions and appreciate the hard work you do raylatch98
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Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Mar 18, 2019 15:22:29 GMT -5
Yeah I love your predictions raylatch98! We all make mistakes and are not perfect!
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jab820
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Post by jab820 on Mar 18, 2019 18:52:18 GMT -5
Sorry guys for the wrong prediction on Carrie Underwood. You guys understand why I thought it was within the realm of possibility that she could go recurrent though right? I wasn't totally dumb for thinking "Love Wins" could go recurrent right? Also sorry for asking, I just feel like I should have seen it staying and I am annoyed that all the work I put in week in and week out for predictions (I put in a ton of effort every week) is always wrong somewhat and I somehow always find a way to miss the mark each week, with this week being probably my worst week yet at predictions. I will say from now on I am probably just doing the Top 40 because the bottom of the chart as well is so hard to predict on any level whatsoever. Unless their is a high want for me to do the bottom 20 songs. I especially enjoy seeing your predictions for the bottom 20 songs since they tend to be my favorites on radio. I understand that that takes a lot of time, but it is definitely something I look forward to!
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 24, 2019 18:08:52 GMT -5
Prediction time. Not a lot to say this week.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Luke Combs “Beautiful Crazy” 2. Chris Stapleton “Millionaire” 3. Brett Young “Here Tonight” 4-5. Michael Ray “One That Got Away” 4-5. Riley Green “There Was This Girl” 6. Old Dominion ”Make It Sweet” 7. Jason Aldean “Girl Like You” (last week?) 8. Chase Rice “Eyes On You” 9-10. Jake Owen “Down to the Honky-tonk” 9-10. Scotty McCreery “This Is It”(last week) 11-14. Kane Brown “Good As You” 11-14. Jon Pardi “Night Shift” 11-14. Carrie Underwood “Love Wins” 11-14. Kelsea Ballerini “Miss Me More” 15-16. Eli Young Band “Love Ain't” 15-16. Cody Johnson “On My Way to You” 17. Morgan Wallen “Whiskey Glasses” 18. Brett Eldredge “Love Someone” 19. Thomas Rhett “Look What God Gave Her” 20. Lee Brice “Rumor” 21. George Strait “Every Little Honky Tonk Bar” 22. Florida Georgia Line “Talk You Out of It” 23-24. Rodney Atkins “Caught Up In The Country” 23-24. Maren Morris “Girl” 25. Eric Church “Some of It” 26-28. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town” 26-28. Runaway June “Buy My Own Drinks” 26-28. Chris Young “Raised On Country” 29. LoCash “Feels Like A Party” 30. Tenille Townes “Somebody's Daughter” 31. Dan + Shay “All To Myself” 32. Randy Houser featuring Hillary Lindsey “What Whiskey Does” 33. Jason Aldean “Rearview Town” 34-35. Cole Swindell “Love You Too Late” 34-35. Kacey Musgraves “Rainbow” 36-37. Carly Pearce “Closer to You” 36-37. Justin Moore “The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home” 38-39. Rascal Flatts “Back To Life” 38-39 Morgan Evans “Day Drunk” 40-41. Chris Lane “I Don't Know About You” 40-41. Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing” 42-44. Tim McGraw “Thought About You” 42-44. Brothers Osborne “I Don't Remember Me (Before You)” 42-44. HARDY “REDNECKER” 45. Lauren Alaina “Ladies In The 90s” 46-49. Matt Stell “Prayed For You” 46-49. Chris Janson “Good Vibes” 46-49. Dylan Schneider “How Does It Sound” 46-49. Dierks Bentley “Living” 50-51. Dylan Scott “Nothing to Do Town” 50-51. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 52. Ryan Hurd “To a T” 53. Travis Denning “Day Drunk” 54. Ashley McBryde “Girl Goin Nowhere” 55-58. Zac Brown Band “Someone I Used to Know” 55-58. Walker Hayes “90s Country” 55-58. Adam Hambrick “Rockin All Night Long” 55-58. Mitchell Tenpenny “Alcohol You Later” 59-60. Reba McEntire “Freedom” 59-60. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads”
New and Active Section (in no particular order) Logan Mize “Better Off Gone” Kip Moore “The Bull” Brad Paisley “My Miracle” Aaron Watson “Kiss That Girl Goodbye” King Calaway “World For Two” Dillon Carmichael “Dancing Away with My Heart”
Going Recurrent or Drop outs Midland “Burn Out” Peak #3 Luke Combs “Houston We Got A Problem” Peak #60
Commentary/Highlights Another week at #1 for Luke Combs as “Beautiful Crazy” will officially become his biggest hit on the Billboard chart with this week becoming the 5th week in a row. Chris Stapleton did push hard for the #1 spot but the gap was so huge to overcome it was almost impossible.
Brett Young looks all but confirmed to be the next #1 once “Beautiful Crazy” gives in. Riley Green, and Michael Ray are doing well enough. Old Dominion is going slower than the others around them and Chase Rice is really closing the gap and could pass Old Dominion sooner than later. Jake Owen saw a. good week gaining more Top 10 conversions.
The battle from 11 to 14 is all out war as faster moving songs from Kelsea Ballerini and Kane Brown close in on Jon Pardi and Carrie Underwood. “Night Shift” and “Love Wins” continue to stall around just outside the Top 10. Eli Young Band looks to swap out with Cody Johnson as “Love Ain't” enters the Top 15 and Cody Johnson is not looking solid as he has another slow week. Lee Brice is the new entry into the Top 20 with “Rumor”.
In the 20s, solid weeks for Maren Morris, Runaway June, George Strait, LoCash and Florida Georgia Line. Maren Morris, George Strait and possibly Runaway June look the best long-term in terms of staying power and impact, do expect George Strait to take the next spot in the Top 20. Also look for Eric Church to really storm up the charts this week. Rodney Atkins continues his slow climb like usual, and Chris Young also struggles a bit with “Raised On Country”.
Below the Top 30, Dan + Shay and Jason Aldean continue fast starts with “All To Myself”, and “Rearview Town” respectively while Tim McGraw, Brothers Osborne, Chris Lane and to a lesser extent Lauren Alaina gain pretty well this week and looks like “Ladies In The 90s” will finally set a new peak on Billboard tomorrow. Slow to struggling weeks for Cole Swindell, Dylan Scott and Schneider, HARDY, Russell Dickerson, Carly Pearce, Justin Moore, Kacey Musgraves, and Morgan Evans.
Debuts from Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” and Reba McEntire “Freedom” seem most likely as both songs are off to fairly solid starts, especially Reba McEntire.
6 Songs I see leaving soon in order of where I have them on the charts Jason Aldean “Girl Like You” Scotty McCreery “This Is It” Carrie Underwood “Love Wins” Rodney Atkins “Caught Up In The Country” Randy Houser featuring Hillary Lindsey “What Whiskey Does” Dylan Schneider “How Does It Sound”
3 Songs to watch out for/ have potential to go far (changes weekly) Runaway June “Buy My Own Drinks” Eric Church “Some of It” Dierks Bentley “Living”
Next 3 Songs I see debuting or returning soon Kip Moore “The Bull” Brad Paisley “My Miracle” King Calaway “World For Two”
Closing Thoughts Not too much has changed. Obviously Jason Aldean and Dan + Shay surging and Midland going recurrent this week. But as a whole, the radio chart was pretty basic, just removing one song and not too much shifting around.
Look for Scotty McCreery to go recurrent next week and maybe Jason Aldean. Time will tell on that one. Maybe since Rodney Atkins hit the Mediabase Top 20, Curb will give up and I still think “What Whiskey Does” is also on borrowed time.
Have a great week to everyone who reads this post. Also thank you to everyone encouraging me to keep this going, means a lot to me.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 24, 2019 18:20:23 GMT -5
How is Reba charting already? Is she on MediaBase?
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 24, 2019 18:26:57 GMT -5
How is Reba charting already? Is she on MediaBase? You have an All Access account right? Go to the Taking Off section.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Mar 24, 2019 18:38:23 GMT -5
raylatch98 I think that Blake's newest will be out Friday, so would expect that to debut
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 24, 2019 18:43:15 GMT -5
How is Reba charting already? Is she on MediaBase? You have an All Access account right? Go to the Taking Off section. I do. However, I have not accessed AllAccess from my smartphone. I'll try it tonight or tomorrow.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 24, 2019 18:43:31 GMT -5
raylatch98 I think that Blake's newest will be out Friday, so would expect that to debut Oh okay. I haven't seen anything as I haven't been paying attention to it.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Mar 24, 2019 18:56:48 GMT -5
How is Reba charting already? Is she on MediaBase? She's on the Taking Off section with 13 stations and 129 spins. I'm hoping that she can enter the chart this week, or at least show up on New & Active. I think she has a really strong chance at debuting on the actual chart though.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Mar 24, 2019 21:55:07 GMT -5
Reba and her fanboy debut at the same time lol
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Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Mar 25, 2019 10:27:18 GMT -5
raylatch98 I think that Blake's newest will be out Friday, so would expect that to debut I’m guessing a lead single by Blake? Surely not a 4th single from Texoma Shore.
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Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Mar 25, 2019 10:29:56 GMT -5
Great job again raylatch98! I have to agree with you that Brett Young will be the next #1. I think Luke providing he has a slow fall like he did with She Got The Best Of Me, could hold on for a 6th week. I haven’t seen Brett’s numbers so I’m just guessing on a 6th week for Luke.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Mar 25, 2019 11:00:26 GMT -5
raylatch98 I think that Blake's newest will be out Friday, so would expect that to debut I’m guessing a lead single by Blake? Surely not a 4th single from Texoma Shore. Yeah, new lead single officially announced today: God’s Country
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 31, 2019 17:51:30 GMT -5
Prediction time. A big debut this week looks to slow the charts down a bit, but I still have, like usual lot to say.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Luke Combs “Beautiful Crazy” 2-3. Brett Young “Here Tonight” 2-3. Michael Ray “One That Got Away” 4. Riley Green “There Was This Girl” 5. Old Dominion “Make It Sweet” 6. Chase Rice “Eyes On You” 7. Jake Owen “Down to the Honky-tonk”(last week) 8. Kane Brown “Good As You” 9. Jon Pardi “Night Shift” 10-11. Chris Stapleton “Millionaire” (last week) 10-11. Kelsea Ballerini “Miss Me More” 12. Eli Young Band “Love Ain't” 13. Carrie Underwood “Love Wins” (last week?) 14-15. Thomas Rhett “Look What God Gave Her” 14-15. Cody Johnson “On My Way to You” 16. Morgan Wallen “Whiskey Glasses” 17. Brett Eldredge “Love Someone” 18. Lee Brice “Rumor” 19. George Strait “Every Little Honky Tonk Bar” 20. Maren Morris “Girl” 21-22. Florida Georgia Line “Talk You Out of It” 21-22. Blake Shelton “God's Country” 23-24. Eric Church “Some of It” 23-24. Rodney Atkins “Caught Up In The Country” (last week?) 25. Chris Young “Raised On Country” 26-27. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town” 26-27. Runaway June “Buy My Own Drinks” 28-29. LoCash “Feels Like A Party” 28-29. Tenille Townes “Somebody's Daughter” 30. Dan + Shay “All To Myself” 31-32. Jason Aldean “Rearview Town” 31-32. Randy Houser featuring Hillary Lindsey “What Whiskey Does” (last week?) 33-35. Cole Swindell “Love You Too Late” 33-35. Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing” 33-35. Justin Moore “The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home” 36-38. Kacey Musgraves “Rainbow” 36-38. Carly Pearce “Closer to You” 36-38. Rascal Flatts “Back To Life” 39-41. Chris Lane “I Don't Know About You” 39-41. Tim McGraw “Thought About You” 39-41. Morgan Evans “Day Drunk” 42-43. HARDY “REDNECKER” 42-43. Lauren Alaina “Ladies In The 90s” 44. Brothers Osborne “I Don't Remember Me (Before You)” 45. Chris Janson “Good Vibes” 46-47. Dierks Bentley “Living” 46-47. Dylan Scott “Nothing to Do Town” 48-49. Dylan Schneider “How Does It Sound” (last week?) 48-49. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 50. Matt Stell “Prayed For You” 51-52. Luke Bryan “Knockin’ Boots” 51-52. Ashley McBryde “Girl Goin Nowhere” 53-56. Logan Mize “Better Off Gone” 53-56. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” 53-56. Ryan Hurd “To a T” 53-56. Travis Denning “After A Few” 57. Adam Hambrick “Rockin All Night Long” 58. Mitchell Tenpenny “Alcohol You Later” 59-60. Zac Brown Band “Someone I Used to Know” 59-60. Brad Paisley “My Miracle”
New and Active Section (in no particular order) Hunter Hayes “Heartbreak” King Calaway “World For Two” Danielle Bradbery & Parker McCollum “Shallow” Gone West “Gone West” Scotty McCreery “In Between” Kip Moore “The Bull”
Going Recurrent or Drop outs Jason Aldean “Girl Like You” {Peak #1 (2 weeks)} {Weeks: 28} Scotty McCreery “This Is It” {Peak #1 (2 weeks)} {Weeks: 43} Reba McEntire “Freedom” {Peak #52} {Weeks: 1} Walker Hayes “90s Country” {Peak: #52} {Weeks: 20}
Commentary/Highlights Luke Combs spends his 6th week at #1 with “Beautiful Crazy” being the second 6 week #1 since Thomas Rhett with “Die A Happy Man” back in 2015 and 2016. Like Thomas Rhett did, Luke Combs has blocked a fair amount of songs from hitting #1 on Billboard. “Beautiful Crazy” as of this week has blocked to some extent “Take It From Me” by Jordan Davis, “Burn Out” by Midland, “Millionaire” by Chris Stapleton, and “What Makes You Country” by Luke Bryan.
The runner up position of the week should be close between Brett Young and Michael Ray. Expect Michael Ray to push for #1 next week, whether or not he gets it remains to be determined as Luke Combs does have a pretty commanding lead and I imagine radio is gonna be really slow to let “Beautiful Crazy” drop. After that my gut is telling me Big Machine will push Riley Green who will by the way be spending a second straight week at #4. I think “There Was This Girl” will be pushing to the top after Michael Ray and then after both will be when Brett Young makes his push to the top. Also Old Dominion finally enters the Top 5 with “Make It Sweet”, however the lack of buzz and interest add in Chase Rice really hitting his stride makes me think “Make It Sweet” could get blocked by Chase Rice for the #1 spot.
Jake Owen spends his final week sneaking into a #6 Mediabase peak and for Billboard he looks to be at #7 for his last appearance. Chris Stapleton as expected has had a very severe fall and drop as he should easily find his way off the chart next week. Replacing Jason Aldean and Scotty McCreery in the Top 10 are Kane Brown and Jon Pardi. For both artists this will be their 4th Top 10 single on Billboard (“Head Over Boots”, “Dirt On My Boots”, “Heartache On The Dance Floor” and “What Ifs”, “Heaven”, “Lose It” respectively).
Just outside the Top 10 we have Kelsea Ballerini and Eli Young Band. Both artists have found some very solid footing the past few weeks, Eli Young Band especially as they near closer and closer to their first Billboard Top 10 since “Drunk Last Night” back in late 2013. Unfortunately, Carrie Underwood continues to hang on by a thread with “Love Wins”, maybe this week will be the last week? Probably not, but I can hope as the song isn't doing anything and with the ACMs next week UMG Nashville should really be setting up for a new single from the album to be debuted on the award show instead of keeping this alive.
Cody Johnson also continues to crawl and looks to be passed this week by both Eli Young Band and Thomas Rhett as “Look What God Gave Her” continues to go up very fast on the chart. Outside the Top 15 we have Morgan Wallen, Brett Eldredge, and Lee Brice continuing to make more inroads on the chart. Look for 2 new Top 20 entries, the first coming from George Strait “Every Little Honky Tonk Bar” his first since “I Got A Car” in 2014. Also looks like Maren Morris should sneak ahead of both Florida Georgia Line and Rodney Atkins to claim the last Top 20 spot with “Girl”.
Speaking of Florida Georgia Line and Rodney Atkins. Neither one is looking great at all as both continue to pester around outside the Top 20. The future is bleak for both of “Talk You Out of It”, and “Caught Up In The Country” and I could see both exiting the chart by the end of April. Blake Shelton has a huge iHeartMedia debut with “God's Country” and also another great week for Eric Church and his latest single “Some of It”. Chris Young picks up more momentum this week with “Raised On Country” as he should move up a spot to #25.
Neither “What Happens In A Small Town” by Brantley Gilbert/Lindsay Ell nor Runaway June’s “Buy My Own Drinks” see much traction this week. LoCash looks to finally have some firm footing into the Top 30 finally with “Feels Like A Party”. Also look for Tenille Townes to move up a spot, however she is still relying way too much on iHeartMedia stations right now, and for Dan + Shay to enter the Top 30 with their latest “All To Myself”.
Below the Top 30 we have Jason Aldean and Russell Dickerson really surging up the chart as both near the Top 30. Unfortunately the latest singles from Cole Swindell, Carly Pearce, Kacey Musgraves, and Randy Houser/Hillary Lindsey, are moving very slow gain wise. Morgan Evans looks really weak as he stands a good chance of dropping out of the Top 40. Tim McGraw sees a great week for “Thought About You” and Chris Lane continues to build more momentum up as “I Don't Know About You” continues to pick up the pace, just Chris Lane needs more stations as he has a bit lower number of total stations on the panel then the songs around him.
In the 40s, no one stands out in particular, Lauren Alaina and Chris Janson see solid weeks while Matt Stell, and Dylan Schneider both look primed to each lose a little audience.
New singles from Dustin Lynch, Luke Bryan, and Brad Paisley should debut in the 50s as Luke Bryan expectedly is off to a very fast start. Also newer artists Travis Denning and Logan Mize had a solid week as both should set new peaks.
In case you were wondering why I don't have Reba McEntire still on the charts, every station that I checked that had “Freedom” added last week doesn't have the song in any of their 50 most played songs of the past week. Add in that they were very few stations in the first place. I don't think she'll be on the chart.
6 Songs I see leaving soon in order of where I have them on the charts Jake Owen “Down to the Honky-tonk” Chris Stapleton “Millionaire” Carrie Underwood “Love Wins” Rodney Atkins “Caught Up In The Country” Randy Houser featuring Hillary Lindsey “What Whiskey Does” Dylan Schneider “How Does It Sound”
3 Songs to watch out for/ have potential to go far (changes weekly) Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing” Chris Janson “Good Vibes” Travis Denning “After A Few”
Next 3 Songs I see debuting or returning soon Hunter Hayes “Heartbreak” Kip Moore “The Bull” Scotty McCreery “In Between”
Closing Thoughts Will be nice next week with the Blake Shelton iHeartMedia hangover, both Chris Stapleton and Jake Owen falling out that the chart will have a mini shake up if you will. I do think that both Carrie Underwood and Dylan Schneider are really at the end of the road, and I do hope both leave next week as neither have been doing anything for quite a while.
Like usual, hope everyone that reads this has a great week this week! Next week's predictions will be out like usual on a Sunday.
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Post by RobbyFlorida on Mar 31, 2019 18:30:40 GMT -5
In case you were wondering why I don't have Reba McEntire still on the charts, every station that I checked that had “Freedom” added last week doesn't have the song in any of their 50 most played songs of the past week. Add in that they were very few stations in the first place. I don't think she'll be on the chart. raylatch98, Do you think that the “Freedom” may return on the chart after she performs the song on the ACM’s or is the #52 peak going to be it?
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 31, 2019 18:44:02 GMT -5
In case you were wondering why I don't have Reba McEntire still on the charts, every station that I checked that had “Freedom” added last week doesn't have the song in any of their 50 most played songs of the past week. Add in that they were very few stations in the first place. I don't think she'll be on the chart. raylatch98, Do you think that the “Freedom” may debut on the chart after she performs the song on the ACM’s? Depends. If Reba performs it at the ACM it may get radio more interested afterwards. But even if radio plays it next Sunday night it won't be much since it will be the live audio and that won't mean anything aince live audio doesn't translate too Billboard at all.
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Post by RobbyFlorida on Mar 31, 2019 18:46:47 GMT -5
raylatch98, Do you think that the “Freedom” may debut on the chart after she performs the song on the ACM’s? Depends. If Reba performs it at the ACM it may get radio more interested afterwards. But even if radio plays it next Sunday night it won't be much since it will be the live audio and that won't mean anything aince live audio doesn't translate too Billboard at all. Thanks I was referring to radio stations possibly adding it in rotation after next Sunday which wouldn’t reflect the published charts until 2 weeks from tomorrow.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Apr 7, 2019 16:35:33 GMT -5
Very simple predictions just doing a Top 30 this week and no commentary beyond that. Nothing fancy as the very late updates tripped me up, and the ACM Awards are tonight. That and I have a pounding headache. Sorry guys.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 30 1. Luke Combs "Beautiful Crazy" 2-3. Michael Ray "One That Got Away" 2-3. Brett Young "Here Tonight" 4. Riley Green "There Was This Girl" 5-6. Old Dominion "Make It Sweet" 5-6. Chase Rice "Eyes On You" 7-8. Kane Brown "Good As You" 7-8. Eli Young Band "Love Ain't" 9. Jon Pardi "Night Shift" 10. Kelsea Ballerini "Miss Me More" 11. Cody Johnson "On My Way to You" 12. Morgan Wallen "Whiskey Glasses" 13. Thomas Rhett "Look What God Gave Her" 14. Carrie Underwood "Love Wins"(last week)(30% chance of going recurrent) 15. Brett Eldredge "Love Someone" 16. Lee Brice "Rumor" 17-18. Maren Morris "Girl" 17-18. George Strait "Every Little Honky Tonk Bar" 19-20. Eric Church "Some of It" 19-20. Florida Georgia Line "Talk You Out of It" 21. Rodney Atkins "Caught Up In The Country" 22-24. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell "What Happens In A Small Town" 22-24. Blake Shelton "God's Country" 22-24. Chris Young "Raised On Country" 25. Runaway June "Buy My Own Drinks" 26-28. Dan + Shay "Alone Together" 26-28. Tenille Townes "Somebody's Daughter" 26-28. LoCash "Feels Like A Party" 29. Jason Aldean "Rearview Town" 30. Luke Bryan "Knockin Boots"
Sorry again for the shorter predictions. I will try my best next week to do all 60. Have a great week to everyone reading this!
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Apr 14, 2019 13:44:09 GMT -5
A full week of Predictions this week as the charts slow down and songs begin to shift around. Songs in all italics I expect no bulet.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Brett Young "Here Tonight" 2-3. Riley Green "There Was This Girl" 2-3. Luke Combs "Beautiful Crazy" 4. Old Dominion "Make It Sweet" 5. Chase Rice "Eyes On You" 6. Michael Ray "One That Got Away" (last week?) 7-8. Eli Young Band "Love Ain't" 7-8. Kane Brown "Good As You" 9. Jon Pardi "Night Shift" 10. Kelsea Ballerini "Miss Me More" 11. Morgan Wallen "Whiskey Glasses" 12-14. Carrie Underwood "Love Wins" (last week?) 12-14. Thomas Rhett "Look What God Gave Her" 12-14. Brett Eldredge "Love Someone" 15. Cody Johnson "With You I Am" (last week?) (30% chance of going recurrent) 16. Lee Brice "Rumor" 17. Maren Morris "Girl" 18. George Strait "Every Little Honkytonk Bar" 19. Eric Church "Some Of It" 20-21. Blake Shelton "God's Country" 20-21. Florida Georgia Line "Talk You Out Of It" 22. Rodney Atkins "Caught Up In The Country" (last week?) 23. Chris Young "Raised On Country" 24. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell "What Happens In A Small Town" 25-27. Runaway June "Buy My Own Drinks" 25-27. Dan + Shay "All To Myself" 25-27. Luke Bryan "Knockin Boots" 28-29. Jason Aldean "Rearview Town" 28-29. Tenille Townes "Somebody's Daughter" 30. Justin Moore "The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home" 31-36. Carly Pearce "Closer To You" 31-36. Cole Swindell "Love You Too Late" 31-36. Kacey Musgraves "Rainbow" 31-36. Randy Houser featuring Hillary Lindsey "What Whiskey Does" (last week?) (45% chance of going recurrent) 31-36. Rascal Flatts "Back To Life" 31-36. Chris Lane "I Don't Know About You" 37. Russell Dickerson "Every Little Thing" 38. Morgan Evans "Day Drunk" 39. Tim McGraw "Thought About You" 40-41. Lauren Alaina "Ladies In The 90s" 40-41. Brothers Osborne "I Don't Remember Me (Before You)" 42-43. Dierks Bentley "Living" 42-43. Ashley McBryde "Girl Goin Nowhere" 44-45. Chris Janson "Good Vibes" 44-45. Dylan Scott "Nothing To Do Town" 46-47. Matt Stell "Prayed For You" 46-47. Jimmie Allen "Make Me Want To" 48. Brad Paisley "My Miracle" 49-50. Ryan Hurd "To A T" 49-50. Dustin Lynch "Ridin' Roads" 51. Logan Mize "Better Off Gone" 52. Kip Moore "The Bull" 53-56. Adam Hambrick "Rockin All Night Long" 53-56. Travis Denning "After A Few" 53-56. Zac Brown Band "Someone I Used To Know" 53-56. Mitchell Tenpenny "Alcohol You Later" 57-59. Scotty McCreery "In Between" (New!) 57-59. Midland "Mr. Lonely" (New!) 57-59. Luke Combs "Houston We Got A Problem" 60. Hunter Hayes "Heartbreak" (New!)
New & Active Section LoCash "One Big Country Song" Gone West "Gone West" High Valley "Single Man" Abby Anderson "Good Lord" David Lee Murphy "No Zip Code" Kassi Ashton "Pretty Shiny Things"
Going Recurrent or Drop Outs LoCash "Feels Like A Party" Peak #26 {Weeks: 31} Lil Nas X "Old Town Road" Peak #53 {Weeks: 1} King Calaway "World For Two" Peak #60 {Weeks: 1} (still being promoted by the label)
Commentary After a brief rundown last week it is now time for the usual Top 60 commentary.
After 7 weeks at #1 Luke Combs finally cedes the top spot to Brett Young and his song "Here Tonight". Even better news for Brett Young is that fellow Big Machine artist Riley Green is in max push week this week. As such expect "Here Tonight" to spend another week at #1 next week. Speaking of Riley Green looks like he will settle for a #1 Mediabase peak and either a #2 or #3 peak on Billboard depending on whether he sneaks ahead of Luke Combs. Rounding out the Top 5 are Old Dominion and Chase Rice. Both of which are looking more and more like locks for a Billboard #1. Michael Ray after peaking at #3 begins his descent with "One That Got Away" and stands at least a small chance of going recurrent next week. Jon Pardi, Kane Brown, Eli Young Band, and Kelsea Ballerini continue to gain Top 10 conversions. Kane Brown and Kelsea Ballerini in particular looking strong with "Good As You" and "Miss Me More" respectively.
Morgan Wallen looks next in line for the Top 10 once Michael Ray drops out. While Carrie Underwood continues to cling on and tries to sneak into the Top 10 but unfortunately for her both Thomas Rhett and Brett Eldredge look to pass her either this week or next week which furthers complicates "Love Wins" chances for the Top 10. Speaking of struggling singles Cody Johnson continues to also flounder as "On My Way To You" Top 10 future looks uncertain. Maren Morris has a bit of a cooldown week with "Girl" but still maintains a solid lead on George Strait and faster climbing Eric Church and Blake Shelton, The latter looks to take Florida Georgia Line out of the Top 20 temporarily.
Speaking of FGL they continue to crawl up the charts as "Talk You Out Of IT' is still looking like a weak link in the Top 30. Slow but stable weeks for Rodney Atkins, Chris Young, Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell, and Runaway June. Since "Caught Up In The Country" is such an old song, it is possible at any week Curb gives up but this week was decent enough. Newer singles from Dan + Shay, Jason Aldean, and Tenille Townes continue to heat up especially Jason Aldean, while Luke Bryan should enter the Top 30 easily in his third week with "Knockin Boots". Justin Moore should spend a second week at #30.
The 31 to 36 range is a hot mess where any of the 6 could end up in any of the spots. I do think Carly Pearce will be first and be one step removed from the Top 30 with "Closer To You". Also Rascal Flatts bounced back real strong with "Back To Life" and Chris Lane really got a great boost with "I Don't Know About You". Tim McGraw should set a new peak but "Thought About You" looks to lose a bit of audience. The last Top 40 spot looks to be up for grabs between Lauren Alaina and Brothers Osborne, with "Ladies In The 90s" doing okay while Brothers Osborne really surged this week.
Dierks Bentley looks to lose some audience this week while fresh off her ACM win look for Ashley McBryde to come closer to her second Top 40 single with "Girl Goin Nowhere". Good weeks for Kip Moore, Dustin Lynch, Brad Paisley, and solid debuts for Hunter Hayes, Midland and Scotty McCreery.
The bonus features though such as next songs I expect to leave, songs to debut, look out for, etc. are on hiatus until further notice. Regardless, hope everyone reading this has a great day. See you all next Sunday
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Apr 21, 2019 16:57:12 GMT -5
Prediction time. Couple of dropouts this week helps adjust the charts a bit.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Brett Young “Here Tonight” 2-3. Luke Combs “Beautiful Crazy” 2-3. Old Dominion “Make It Sweet” 4. Chase Rice “Eyes On You” 5. Eli Young Band “Love Ain’t” 6. Kane Brown “Good As You” 7. Kelsea Ballerini “Miss Me More” 8. Jon Pardi “Night Shift” 9. Morgan Wallen “Whiskey Glasses” 10. Riley Green “There Was This Girl” (last week) 11. Brett Eldredge “Love Someone” 12-13. Thomas Rhett “Look What God Gave Her” 12-13. Carrie Underwood “Love Wins (last week?) 14. Cody Johnson “On My Way To You” 15. Lee Brice “Rumor” 16. Maren Morris “Girl” 17. Blake Shelton “God’s Country” 18. George Strait “Every Little Honky-Tonk Bar” 19. Florida Georgia Line “Talk You Out Of It” 20. Eric Church “Some Of It” 21-22. Rodney Atkins “Caught Up In The Country” 21-22. Chris Young “Raised On Country” 23. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town” 24. Dan + Shay “All To Myself” 25-26. Runaway June “Buy My Own Drinks” 25-26. Luke Bryan “Knockin Boots” 27-28. Tenille Townes “Somebody’s Daughter” 27-28. Jason Aldean “Rearview Town” 29. Justin Moore “The Ones That Didn’t Make It Back Home” 30. Carly Pearce “Closer To You” 31-32. Cole Swindell “Love You Too Late” 31-32. Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing” 33-34. Rascal Flatts “Back To Life” 33-34. Tim McGraw “Thought About You” 35-37. Kacey Musgraves “Rainbow” 35-37. Morgan Evans “Day Drunk” 35-37. Chris Lane “I Don’t Know About You” 38. Chris Janson “Good Vibes” 39. Brothers Osborne “I Don’t Remember Me (Before You)” 40. Dierks Bentley “Living” 41-43. Lauren Alaina “Ladies In The 90s” 41-43. HARDY “REDNECKER” 41-43. Matt Stell “Prayed For You” 44. Dylan Scott “Nothing To Do Town” 45-47. Ashley McBryde “Girl Goin Nowhere” 45-47. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 45-47. Brad Paisley “My Miracle” 48. Midland “Mr. Lonely” 49-50. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” 49-50. Ryan Hurd “To A T” 51. Travis Denning “After A Few” 52-54. Lil Nas X “Old Town Road” (Re-Entry!) 52-54. LoCash “One Big Country Song” (New!) 52-54. Logan Mize “Better Off Gone” 55-56. Adam Hambrick “Rockin All Night Long” 55-56. Kip Moore “The Bull” 57. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 58. Mitchell Tenpenny “Alcohol You Later” 59. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” (New!) 60. Zac Brown Band “Someone I Used To Know” New and Active Section (in no particular order) Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” Abby Anderson “Good Lord” Brooks & Dunn with Thomas Rhett “My Maria” David Lee Murphy “No Zip Code” High Valley “Single Man” LANCO “Rival”
Going Recurrent or Drop outs Michael Ray “One That Got Away” Peak #3 Randy Houser featuring Hillary Lindsey “What Whiskey Does” Peak #31 Luke Combs “Houston We Got A Problem” Peak #59
Commentary/Highlights Spending a second week at # 1 is Brett Young with “Here Tonight”. Spending a third week at #1 is not likely but could be doable if Brett holds his lead off from Old Dominion. “Make It Sweet” spent the week establish itself as the song next in line for the #1 spot. Meanwhile Luke Combs continues his very slow descent down with “Beautiful Crazy”. At #4 is Chase Rice who could be set up for a multi week #1 run with “Eyes On You” as their is a very large gap between Chase Rice and Eli Young Band/Kane Brown. Both “Love Ain’t” and “Good As You” got strong Top 5 conversions this week while Jon Pardi and Kelsea Ballerini have a bit slower climb in the Top 10 conversions. With Jon he does appear about ready to max spin while Kelsea Ballerini looks to be able to wait out with “Miss Me More” and should still have a shot. Morgan Wallen enters the Top 10 with “Whiskey Glasses” replacing Michael Ray.
Carrie Underwood continues to barely stay afloat while Brett Eldredge looks to surge ahead and enter the Top 10 replacing Riley Green next week. Thomas Rhett has another slow week with “Look What God Gave Her” time will tell if it will pick the pace back up. I imagine with the great sales this could get back in the flow of things. Cody Johnson has also stopped dead in his tracks with “On My Way To You”. Lee Brice enters the Top 15 with “Rumor” and Maren Morris picks the pace back up after a slow week last week with “Girl”. Blake Shelton enters the Top 20 in his 4th week with “God’s Country”. Decent but not standout weeks for Florida Georgia Line, Eric Church, and George Strait.
Rodney Atkins really got overnight spins which lead to very minimal gains in audience, while Chris Young, Brantley Gilbert/Lindsay Ell, Runaway June saw solid weeks and the latter two especially after last week was such a slow week for both “What Happens In A Small Town” and “Buy My Own Drinks”. Meanwhile great weeks for Dan + Shay, Tenille Townes, and Luke Bryan. “Somebody’s Daughter” has finally started gaining traction after a slow start after On The Verge airplay impacted. Justin Moore got a great week as well as “Ones That Didn’t Make It Back Home” as he is starting to gain traction. Taking Michael Ray’s spot in the Top 30 will be his fiance Carly Pearce with “Closer To You” in her 22nd week.
Solid week for Russell Dickerson and to a lesser extent Cole Swindell as both men near the Top 30. However Tim McGraw is surging ahead and could get before them. Like Rodney Atkins, Rascal Flatts got a lot of overnight spins. Kacey Musgraves and Morgan Evans struggle this week especially “Rainbow” who has had a roller coaster week. Chris Lane has a slowdown week as “I Don’t Know About You” continues it’s slow climb. Meanwhile new music from Dierks Bentley, Chris Janson, and a bit older song from Brothers Osborne enter the Top 40. “Living” will enter the Top 40 in Week 8, Chris Janson in Week 8 as well and Brothers Osborne Week 23.
In the 40s, Lauren Alaina sees a setback this week and will fall out the Top 40 this week. However Matt Stell had a pretty great week for “Prayed For You” as he nears the Top 40. Midland surges the week after add date and Dustin Lynch as well will enter the Top 50. Look for new arrivals from LoCash, a returning entry from Lil Nas X (bleh), and Jordan Davis sneaking into the chart.
New songs from Caylee Hammack, Abby Anderson, High Valley, and LANCO are looking to heat up the chart within the next couple of weeks.
6 Songs I see leaving soon in order of where I have them on the charts Riley Green “There Was This Girl” Carrie Underwood “Love Wins” Cody Johnson “On My Way To You” Rodney Atkins “Caught Up In The Country” Rascal Flatts “Back To Life” Morgan Evans “Day Drunk”
3 Songs to watch out for/ have potential to go far (changes weekly) Runaway June “Buy My Own Drinks” Carly Pearce “Closer To You” Justin Moore “The Ones That Didn’t Make It Back Home”
Next 3 Songs I see debuting or returning soon Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” Hunter Hayes “Heartbreak” LANCO “Rival”
Closing Thoughts Double recurrent and drop out this week. Hopefully we do see one of Carrie Underwood and Rodney Atkins drop out. The charts are about to clog right back up with new singles impacting soon from LANCO, Filmore, Riley Green, Adam Craig, High Valley, Brandon Ratcliff, Tucker Beathard, Tenille Arts, and last but certainly not least Maddie & Tae that and we should expect new Lady Antebellum music and remains to be determined if Little Big Town will release “The Daughters” as a radio single
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Apr 22, 2019 9:21:17 GMT -5
It's interesting to watch the chart journeys of old town road and god's country over the last few weeks. They've both been the top two selling songs on itunes for a few weeks (obviously Old Town Road is #1 and killing the streaming game too). We think of Blake songs as relatively fast moving in the country world, and it's easily the youngest song in the top 20. The Lil Nas X song though is already top 10 at Rhythmic and 13th at pop.
It's just sort of a reminder though of how much more slowly country radio moves vs other formats.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Apr 22, 2019 20:17:05 GMT -5
Next week should be a mini house cleaning with all 3 of Michael Ray, Riley Green, and Carrie Underwood on their way out. Kacey Musgraves is also at risk of going recurrent (if she does not rebullet she goes recurrent automatically). But I imagine she will stay on.
I obviously do want Rodney Atkins to go recurrent but that's a pipe dream till the album drop. But I don't see any other drop ous (hopefully Lil Nas X does go back out the chart), as I doubt any of Rascal Flatts, Morgan Evans, or Cody Johnson give up especially with a few songs leaving next week.
Early predictions is that I do think Kacey Musgraves will stay and Lauren Alaina re-enters. In terms of new arrivals I full on expect Jordan Davis and I would not rule out one of Abby Anderson or Caylee Hammack.
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Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Apr 23, 2019 6:50:15 GMT -5
Old Dominion’s push week this week and they should easily get the top spot next week only for Chase to take it from them the following week. Chase should get at least 2 weeks because Pardi pushes the week after him and I don’t see Pardi being able to catch him unless Chase just plummets in audience that week.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Apr 23, 2019 10:19:03 GMT -5
I would imagine Eli young band will push in two weeks, then Kane and Kelsea
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Apr 29, 2019 7:38:07 GMT -5
Prediction time and sorry for the delay I got really sick yesterday so it was hard to do this at all and I am still not feeling great.
Regardless, 5 dropouts this week so a huge house cleaning. Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Old Dominion “Make It Sweet” 2. Chase Rice “Eyes On You” 3-5. Brett Young “Here Tonight” 3-5. Luke Combs “Beautiful Crazy” 3-5. Eli Young Band “Love Ain’t 6. Kane Brown “Good As You” 7. Morgan Wallen “Whiskey Glasses” 8-9. Kelsea Ballerini “Miss Me More” 8-9. Jon Pardi “Night Shift” 10. Brett Eldredge “Love Someone” 11. Thomas Rhett “Look What God Gave Her” 12-13. Cody Johnson “On My Way To You” 12-13. Lee Brice “Rumor” 14-15. Maren Morris “Girl” 14-15. Blake Shelton “God’s Country” 16. Eric Church “Some Of It” 17-19. George Strait “Every Little Honky-Tonk Bar” 17-19. Florida Georgia Line “Talk You Out Of It” 17-19. Chris Young “Raised On Country" 20-21. Rodney Atkins “Caught Up In The Country” 20-21. Dan +Shay “All To Myself” 22-23. Brantley Gilbert + Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town” 22-23. Luke Bryan “Knockin Boots” 24. Jason Aldean “Rearview Town” 25-26. Runaway June “Buy My Own Drinks” 25-26. Justin Moore “The Ones That Didn’t Make It Back Home” 27. Tenille Townes “Somebody’s Daughter” 28-30. Carly Pearce “Closer To You” 28-30. Cole Swindell “Love You Too Late” 28-30. Rascal Flatts “Back To Life” 31. Morgan Evans “Day Drunk” 32-33. Tim McGraw “Thought About You” 32-33. Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing” 34. Chris Lane “I Don’t Know About You” 35. Midland “Mr. Lonely” 36-37. Dierks Bentley “Living” 36-37. Chris Janson Good Vibes” 38. HARDY “REDNECKER” 39-40. Brothers Osborne “I Don’t Remember Me (Before You)” 39-40. Lauren Alaina "Ladies In The 90s" (Re-Entry!) 41-42. Ashley McBryde “Girl Goin Nowhere” 41-42. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To" 43. Dylan Scott “Nothing To Do Town” 44-45. Matt Stell “Prayed For You” 44-45. Ryan Hurd “To A T” 46. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads’ 47-50. Brad Paisley “My Miracle” 47-50. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 47-50. Travis Denning “After A Few” 47-50. Logan Mize “Better Off Gone” 51. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 52. Adam Hambrick “Rockin’ All Night Long” 53-56. Mitchell Tenpenny “Alcohol You Later” 53-56. Kip Moore “The Bull” 53-56. Jordan Davis "Slow Dance In A Parking Lot" (New!) 53-56. King Calaway “World For Two 57-60. Zac Brown Band “Someone I Used To Know” 57-60. Filmore "Slower" (New!) 57-60. Hunter Hayes "Heartbreak" (New!) 57-60. Carrie Underwood "Southbound" (New!) New and Active Section (in no particular order) Caylee Hammack "Family Tree" Abby Anderson "Good Lord" Thomas Rhett "Remember You Young" Riley Green "In Love By Now" LANCO "Rival" David Lee Murphy "No Zip Code" Going Recurrent or Drop outs Michael Ray “One That Got Away” {Peak #3} [Weeks: 40} Riley Green “There Was This Girl” {Peak #3} [Weeks: 41] Carrie Underwood “Love Wins” {Peak #11} [Weeks: 32] Kacey Musgraves "Rainbow" {Peak #33} [Weeks: 11] Lil Nas X "Old Town Road" {Peak #50} [Weeks: 2] Commentary/Highlights Old Dominion scores yet another #1 single with "Make It Sweet". Gut instinct tells me the next single will be "One Man Band". Chase Rice is next in line followed by Eli Young Band and Kane Brown. Meanwhile former #1 "Here Tonight" by Brett Young begins his descent down slow descent down. Meanwhile Luke Combs also has his very slow descent with "Beautiful Crazy". Morgan Wallen got very strong Top 10 conversions for "Whiskey Glasses" as he looks like a lock to also hit #1.
Kelsea Ballerini and Jon Pardi also continue to gaining Top 10 conversions. Unfortunately for Jon Pardi he is on really borrowed time and will probably have to settle for a Top 5 finish in the next couple of weeks. I do think "Miss Me More" still has a solid chance for #1.
Also entering the Top 10 will be Brett Eldredge with "Love Someone", time will tell where this song peaks but it has really picked up the pace recently. Great weeks expected for Thomas Rhett, Maren Morris and especially Blake Shelton who continues to storm up the chart as "God's Country" is one of the highest selling songs all genre and continues to do very well.
Great week for Eric Church "Some of It" and not a half bad week for Florida Georgia Line even if "Talk You Out of It" is on borrowed time. George Strait lost traction this week as "Every Little Honky Tonk Bar" continues to stay put in the 17-19 range. Chris Young got strong Top 20 conversions as the final spot in the Top 20 looks to be between Dan + Shay or Rodney Atkins. I lean slightly for Dan + Shay to be the one to hit the Top 20.
Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell have a solid week as "What Happens In A Small Town" nears the Top 20, same with Luke Bryan as he should climb up 4 to 5 spots as "Knockin Boots" is probably the fastest growing song behind Blake Shelton. Jason Aldean also continues to near the Top 20 as well with "Rearview Town". Very slow week for Runaway June as "Buy My Own Drinks" got more overnight spins which slowed the audience gains down to a crawl. Decent weeks for Justin Moore and Tenille Townes. Also look for Carly Pearce "Closer to You", Rascal Flatts "Back to Life", and Cole Swindell "Love You Too Late" to all enter the Top 30.
Below the Top 30, Tim McGraw and Morgan Evans both have a great week as they both near the Top 30. Also solid week for Chris Lane. Kacey Musgraves did break even and gained a decent amount of spins but my gut instinct tells me she lost too much audience to make up the difference. Lauren Alaina should re enter this week with "Ladies In The 90s" getting a nice CT40 boost. Also songs from Ashley McBryde and Jimmie Allen do well and near the Top 40.
Decent progress for Ryan Hurd, Dustin Lynch, Travis Denning, and LoCash who is doing very well for a song that is not going for adds for 2 more weeks. Scotty McCreery saw a solid week for "In Between" as he is off to a great start. With 5 dropouts, the new entries look to be Jordan Davis who is off to a good start with "Slow Dance In A Parking Lot", same with Filmore and his debut single "Slower". Also look for Hunter Hayes to sneak into the chart with "Heartbreak". Last look for Carrie Underwood to replace herself on the chart with "Southbound" as it is going for adds today. 6 Songs I see leaving soon in order of where I have them on the charts Brett Young "Here Tonight" Jon Pardi "Night Shift" Cody Johnson "On My Way to You" Rodney Atkins "Caught Up In The Country" Rascal Flatts "Back to Life" Zac Brown Band "Someone I Used to Know" Closing Thoughts A nice house cleaning helps loosen up the chart. Unfortunately with a huge clean out on the charts the next week looks to be a dud and I don't really see anyone going recurrent next week. Maybe some songs in the 50s get pushed out (Zac Brown Band, Mitchell Tenpenny, and Hunter Hayes look like chief candidates). Also Kacey Musgraves could realistically re-enter so that would slow the charts back down. Next week doesn't look very likely for a lot of songs to drop out.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on May 5, 2019 17:49:36 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Chase Rice "Eyes On You" 2. Eli Young Band "Love Ain't" 3-4. Kane Brown “Good As You” 3-4. Luke Combs "Beautiful Crazy" 5. Morgan Wallen "Whiskey Glasses" 6. Old Dominion "Make It Sweet" (last week?) 7. Jon Pardi "Night Shift" 8-9. Kelsea Ballerini "Miss Me More" 8-9. Brett Young "Here Tonight"(last week) 10. Brett Eldredge "Love Someone" 11. Thomas Rhett "Look What God Gave Her" 12. Lee Brice "Rumor" 13. Cody Johnson "On My Way to You" 14. Blake Shelton "God's Country" 15. Maren Morris "Girl" 16. Eric Church "Some of It" 17. Florida Georgia Line "Talk You Out of It" 18. George Strait "Every Little Honky Tonk Bar" 19-20. Dan + Shay "All To Myself" 19-20. Chris Young "Raised On Country" 21-24. Luke Bryan "Knockin Boots" 21-24. Rodney Atkins "Caught Up In The Country" 21-24. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell "What Happens In A Small Town" 21-24. Jason Aldean "Rearview Town" 25. Runaway June "Buy My Own Drinks" 26. Justin Moore "The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home" 27. Tenille Townes "Somebody's Daughter" 28. Cole Swindell "Love You Too Late" 29. Rascal Flatts "Back to Life" 30-32. Tim McGraw "Thought About You" 30-32. Morgan Evans "Day Drunk" 30-32. Chris Lane "I Don’t Know About You" 33. Russell Dickerson "Every Little Thing" 34. Kacey Musgraves "Rainbow" (Re-Entry!) 35-37. Dierks Bentley "Living 35-37. Midland "Mr. Lonely" 35-37. Matt Stell "Prayed For You" 38-40. HARDY "REDNECKER" 38-40. Brothers Osborne "I Don't Remember Me (Before You)" 38-40. Chris Janson "Good Vibes" 41. Carrie Underwood "Southbound" 42. Jimmie Allen "Make Me Want To" 43. Ashley McBryde "Girl Goin Nowhere" 44-45. Dylan Scott "Nothing to Do Town" 44-45. Brad Paisley "My Miracle" 46. Dustin Lynch "Ridin Roads" 47-49. Ryan Hurd "To a T" 47-49. Travis Denning "After A Few" 47-49. LoCash "One Big Country Song" 50-52. Jordan Davis "Slow Dance In A Parking Lot" 50-52. Scotty McCreery "In Between" 50-52. Zac Brown Band "Someone I Used to Know" 53-57. Mitchell Tenpenny "Alcohol You Later" 53-57. Logan Mize "Better Off Gone" 53-57. Adam Hambrick "Rockin All Night Long" 53-57. Filmore "Slower" 53-57. LANCO "Rival" (New!) 58-60. King Calaway "World For Two" 58-60. Hunter Hayes "Heartbreak" 58-60. P!nk featuring Chris Stapleton "Love Me Anyway" (New!) New and Active Section (in no particular order) Riley Green "In Love By Now" Michael Ray "Her World or Mine" Caroline Jones "Chasing Me" High Valley "Single Man" Maddie & Tae "Die From a Broken Heart" Brandon Ratcliff "Rules of Breaking Up" Going Recurrent or Drop outs Carly Pearce "Closer to You" {Peak #30} {Weeks: 23} (still being promoted by the label) Kip Moore "The Bull" {Peak #55} {Weeks: 4} (still being promoted by the label) Luke Combs "Houston We Got A Problem" {Peak #58} {Weeks: 5} Commentary/Highlights Chase Rice scores his very first #1 with "Eyes On You" his first 2 singles "Ready Set Roll" and "Gonna Wanna Tonight" came up just short peaking at #5 and #2 respectively. Also experiencing a comeback of sorts is Eli Young Band who look primed to take over the #1 spot once Chase Rice is falling. Expect Kane Brown and afterwards Morgan Wallen to fill out at least a week for #1. Jon Pardi is ready for next week's push week as I imagine the label will get a Top 5 out of "Night Shift" but probably not a #1.
Kelsea Ballerini has a slow week as despite great sales callout remains abysmal at best. I do think "Miss Me More" has a chance of #1 but she needs to fend off Brett Eldredge and Thomas Rhett. Blake Shelton continues to storm closer to the Top 10. Lee Brice and Eric also continues to look solid and "Girl" by Maren Morris continues to hang in there. On the flipside the latest songs from Cody Johnson, Florida Georgia Line, and possibly George Strait look to be running out of time and are the definite weak links in the teens right now.
Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan and lesser degree Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell, continue to move closer and closer to the Top 20 as Rodney Atkins continues to barely stay alive with "Caught Up In The Country". Runaway June had a decent week despite having some Westwood one help as the ladies continue to inch closer to the Mediabase Top 20 and still are relatively young on the chart with this week being on Week 29 now.
Justin Moore and Cole Swindell gain well this week while Rascal Flatts and Tenille Townes experience a bit of a setback. The last Top 30 spot will be between Tim McGraw, Morgan Evans, and Chris Lane with myself thinking Tim McGraw has the edge. The reason why there even is an opening in the Top 30 is due to Carly Pearce all of a sudden just having an absolute horrendous week with "Closer to You", horrible sales don't help either.
Kacey Musgraves "Rainbow" should re enter the chart as both Dierks Bentley and Midland continue to move really well same with new artist Matt Stell and his debut single "Prayed For You". Setback week for Chris Janson after last week was really good for "Good Vibes". Meanwhile Carrie Underwood storms up the chart with new single "Southbound" as fellow UMG artist Travis Denning also has a good week. Solid weeks from Dustin Lynch, Ryan Hurd, and Zac Brown Band as well.
Lastly look for LANCO to debut with "Rival" and for Pink's collaboration for Chris Stapleton to debut due to KKBQ airplay. Songs I see leaving soon Old Dominion "Make It Sweet" Jon Pardi "Night Shift" Brett Young "Here Tonight" Cody Johnson "On My Way to You" Florida Georgia Line "Talk You Out of It: Rodney Atkins "Caught Up In The Country" Rascal Flatts "Back to Life" Adam Hambrick "Rockin All Night Long" Songs I see debuting or returning soon Carly Pearce "Closer to You" and Lauren Alaina "Ladies In The 90s" (Returning in the Top 30 and Top 40 respectively) Caylee Hammack "Family Tree" Riley Green "In Love By Now" Luke Combs "Beer Never Broke My Heart" Kip Moore "The Bull" High Valley "Single Man" Lady Antebellum "What If I Never Got Over You" Maddie & Tae "Die From a Broken Heart" Michael Ray "Her World or Mine"
Closing Thoughts So many songs on the chart right now and so many either already looking to fit in or are about to impact. The good news with Old Dominion and Brett Young in freefall and with Jon Pardi, Chase Rice, Rodney Atkins and probably one of Cody Johnson or Florida Georgia Line joining within the next few weeks should help loosen the charts a bit as we brace for some high impacting songs in the next few weeks (Maddie & Tae, Michael Ray, Lady Antebellum, next single Old Dominion, Brett Young, and of course Luke Combs).
See everyone next week. Hope everyone reads this has a great week! Until next time bye!
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onebuffalo
Diamond Member
#LiteralLegender
I am One Buffalo.
Joined: June 2009
Posts: 26,517
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Post by onebuffalo on May 5, 2019 17:56:29 GMT -5
I would love to see Rainbow re-enter. Could we please put Rodney Atkins out of his misery? Over a year on the chart and still NOT in the top 20.
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