mikem
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Gillian Welch 'The Harrow and the Harvest'
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Post by mikem on Oct 1, 2012 14:53:20 GMT -5
Do you know yet if Kristen Kelly managed to squeeze in at 30. One of my favorite songs on the chart.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2012 14:58:22 GMT -5
Has craig campbell's new single entered yet? Nope. Too many big songs have been going for adds over the last few weeks. And on the 10/6 chart, JT Hodges, at #60, had 533k. Normally that's good for around #55 or so, and 300-350k will get you on the chart. Fortunately, we had 5 songs drop off the chart today, but again, a lot of those songs that have gone for adds recently and gotten more early commitments took up those spots. Joanna has had the big radio tour, The Farm and Clay Walker have gotten a few big stations on board early, and then you get new singles by bigger stars like Taylor, LBT, ZBB, Faith, etc, that all take up spots. I'd bet Craig is at least in that 300-350k range, and he did get 6 more adds on Mediabase today. He's got more total adds (33) than The Farm (26), JT Hodges (25), Clay Walker (15), Lonestar (27), Colt Ford (31), and Miss Willie Brown (27), but right now they are all just getting bigger spins at bigger stations. There might not be many recurrents next week, but I'm thinking Craig will get on the chart soon yet. Do you know yet if Kristen Kelly managed to squeeze in at 30. One of my favorite songs on the chart. Likely won't know for sure until the full chart comes out this evening. Earlier in the week she looked pretty safe to get there, even though Thomas Rhett was looking to move ahead. Because there were gonna be 4 recurrents from the top 30, and Kristen was at #33, so that would've put her at #29, but Thomas' pass set her back to #30, and the ZBB has come up so fast, that I'm not sure if Kristen was able to hold them off for #30. Based on Mediabase data, it was looking to be very close. Kristen's Sunday performance didn't help her at all. She lost about 200k on Mediabase this morning, while the ZBB gained about 1 million. Today's drop for Kristen leaves her negative for the past 7 days, too. So we'll see if she can hang on to that bullet on Billboard tonight, and if she winds up holding off the ZBB.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2012 16:22:16 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for tomorrow's 10/20 Billboard chart. Projected audience totals (in millions) are included for the top 50 songs. Enjoy! :)
1) Jason Aldean – “Take A Little Ride” (38.250) 2-3) Carrie Underwood – “Blown Away” (36.700) 2-3) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” (36.690) 4) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” (33.350) 5) Lee Brice – “Hard To Love” (31.330) 6-8) Easton Corbin – “Lovin’ You Is Fun” (29.100) 6-8) Jake Owen – “The One That Got Away” (29.000) 6-8) Hunter Hayes – “Wanted” [last week] (29.000) 9) Luke Bryan – “Kiss Tomorrow Goodbye” (28.150) 10) Miranda Lambert – “Fastest Girl In Town” (27.550) 11) Tim McGraw – “Truck Yeah” (24.370) 12) Rascal Flatts – “Come Wake Me Up” (23.350) 13-14) Greg Bates – “Did It For The Girl” (17.430) 13-14) Kip Moore – “Beer Money” (17.290) 15-16) Justin Moore – “’Til My Last Day” (16.600) 15-16) Eric Church – “Creepin’” (16.490) 17) Jerrod Niemann – “Shinin’ On Me” (16.140) 18) Florida Georgia Line – “Cruise” (15.690) 19) Toby Keith – “I Like Girls That Drink Beer” (14.190) 20) Kenny Chesney – “El Cerrito Place” (13.310) 21) Brad Paisley – “Southern Comfort Zone” (12.200) 22) Randy Houser – “How Country Feels” (11.950) 23) Casey James – “Crying On A Suitcase” (10.170) 24-25) Darius Rucker – “True Believers” (9.300) 24-25) Zac Brown Band – “Goodbye In Her Eyes” (9.300) 26) Dierks Bentley – “Tip It On Back” (8.190) 27) Taylor Swift – “Begin Again” (7.540) 28) Thomas Rhett – “Beer With Jesus” (6.880) 29) Jon Pardi – “Missin’ You Crazy” (6.490) 30) Kristen Kelly – “Ex-Old Man” (5.510) 31) Gary Allan – “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” (4.900) 32) Kacey Musgraves – “Merry Go ‘Round” (4.620) 33) Chris Cagle – “Let There Be Cowgirls” (4.500) 34) Eli Young Band – “Say Goodnight” (4.250) 35) Brantley Gilbert – “Kick It In The Sticks” (3.990) 36) Taylor Swift – “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” [last week] (3.000) 37-39) Lauren Alaina – “Eighteen Inches” (2.870) 37-39) Rodney Atkins – “Just Wanna Rock ‘N’ Roll” (2.850) 37-39) Maggie Rose – “I Ain’t Your Mama” (2.800) 40-41) Faith Hill – “American Heart” (2.370) 40-41) Little Big Town – “Tornado” (2.290) 42-43) Alan Jackson – “You Go Your Way” (1.800) 42-43) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (1.750) 44-45) Parmalee – “Musta Had A Good Time” (1.630) 44-45) Randy Rogers Band – “One More Sad Song” (1.600) 46) Katie Armiger – “Better In A Black Dress” (1.400) 47) Kix Brooks – “Bring It On Home” (1.330) 48-49) Kelleigh Bannen – “Sorry On The Rocks” (1.210) 48-49) The Lost Trailers – “American Beauty” (1.200) 50-51) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (1.000) 50-51) Colt Ford (featuring Jake Owen) – “Back” 52-54) Clay Walker – “Jesse James” 52-54) Miss Willie Brown – “You’re All That Matters To Me” 52-54) Tyler Farr – “Hello Goodbye” 55-57) Joanna Smith – “We Can’t Be Friends” 55-57) David Nail – “Someone Like You” 55-57) Lonestar – “The Countdown” 58) The Farm – “Be Grateful” 59-60) JT Hodges – “Sleepy Little Town” 59-60) Craig Campbell – “Outta My Head” [NEW!]
Dropping Off: Edens Edge's "Too Good To Be True"
Comments:
Jason Aldean's "Take A Little Ride" will become the first 3-week #1 hit we've had since the Zac Brown Band's "Keep Me In Mind" spent 4 weeks at #1 in December and early January. Jason's labelmate Dustin Lynch will continue his remarkable run with debut single "Cowboys And Angels" still gaining ground...only problem is, Jason will remain ahead of him for at least one more week and Dustin stands a good chance (call it about 50-50) of slipping back from #2, as Carrie Underwood's "Blown Away" storms toward the top spot. It certainly looks like we could have an old fashioned shoot-out between the two next week, but I certainly wouldn't want to be going up against the superstar Underwood. It's still too early to know how things will play out yet, however, so we'll just have to wait and see.
After hitting #3 on the 10/13 chart, Jana Kramer's remarkable run with debut single "Why Ya Wanna" appears to be nearing an end, as she should slip back to #4 and will likely lose her bullet in the process. Her run has been just as impressive as that of Dustin Lynch. Meanwhile, look for Lee Brice to surge into the top 5. Easton Corbin has slowed to a crawl and will have to fight for the #6 spot with the faster-climbing Jake Owen. Luke Bryan is also on a roll--he should pass Miranda Lambert--and could give Jake and Easton a battle this coming week. Speaking of Lambert, she looks likely to get bumped back to #10, even though I've got her well over the 27 million mark. I don't think I've ever seen a #10 song with an audience total that high...usually even 23-24 million is quite high. But it just shows how tough the top 10 is right now. Hunter Hayes will likely get 1 more week, as it looks like Tim McGraw will remain #11 in spins as well as audience. Tim, along with labelmate Rascal Flatts, will have high audience totals for the 11-12 spots, as they continue to move a bit slower, stuck on the outside looking in. Fortunately, the top 10 may see some clearing soon, with Hunter, Jana, and probably Easton and Dustin likely on their way out in the next few weeks, while Jason will also begin dropping faster.
A big gap has set up between #12 Rascal Flatts and the next 'tier' of climbing songs. Eric Church's "Creepin'" had risen to #13 last week, but it appears to be hitting some resistance now, likely due to its edgy sound. Greg Bates and Kip Moore should move ahead, and Justin Moore might also. Greg and especially Kip have really been doing well lately, and should be top 10 bound soon. Jerrod Niemann has had a bit of a better week, but still remains outside the top 15, with Florida Georgia Line closing in. Toby Keith has also really slowed up, and he'll have Kenny Chesney and Brad Paisley to deal with very soon, as they are coming up quickly. Randy Houser and Casey James continue to do quite well, making strides toward the top 20. Look for the new releases from the Zac Brown Band and Taylor Swift to blast into the top 30 with ease.
Gary Allan is also off to a great start, though it looks like he'll need 1 more week to hit the top 30. Lauren Alaina, Rodney Atkins, and Maggie Rose continue to struggle just inside the top 40, with Faith Hill and Little Big Town coming up quickly (and they're just getting started). Alan Jackson continues to move very slowly, while Gloriana's "Can't Shake You", on the other hand, is off to a pretty good start. A lot of the songs outside the top 40 continue to not gain much ground, but it appears we could have another wave of recurrents in the next few weeks, so that should help a bit. The only likely recurrent this week is Edens Edge's sophomore single "Too Good To Be True", as I think Hunter will get 1 last week in the top 10. Craig Campbell's new single "Outta My Head" appears to be the frontrunner to make his top 60 debut, but Steve Holy, Gwen Sebastian, Uncle Kracker, and Heidi Newfield could also be in the mix.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2012 21:30:12 GMT -5
I was quite busy last week, at home from college break, and I also had to get a new laptop, as my old one died! >:( But, I got my projections done today, so here are my predictions for tomorrow's 11/3 issue of Billboard Country Airplay:
*I have included the projected Billboard audience totals (in millions) for the top 50 songs. Enjoy! :)
1) Carrie Underwood – “Blown Away” (38.400) 2) Lee Brice – “Hard To Love” (37.980) 3-4) Luke Bryan – “Kiss Tomorrow Goodbye” (32.720) 3-4) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” (32.700) 5) Jason Aldean – “Take A Little Ride” (32.230) 6) Jake Owen – “The One That Got Away” (31.610) 7-8) Easton Corbin – “Lovin’ You Is Fun” (31.090) 7-8) Miranda Lambert – “Fastest Girl In Town” (30.800) 9) Rascal Flatts – “Come Wake Me Up” (25.410) 10) Kip Moore – “Beer Money” (22.060) 11-12) Florida Georgia Line – “Cruise” (21.080) 11-12) Justin Moore – “’Til My Last Day” (20.880) 13-14) Eric Church – “Creepin’” (19.070) 13-14) Greg Bates – “Did It For The Girl” (19.060) 15-17) Tim McGraw – “Truck Yeah” (17.400) 15-17) Kenny Chesney – “El Cerrito Place” (17.000) 15-17) Brad Paisley – “Southern Comfort Zone” (17.000) 18) Toby Keith – “I Like Girls That Drink Beer” (15.960) 19) Zac Brown Band – “Goodbye In Her Eyes” (15.220) 20) Randy Houser – “How Country Feels” (14.450) 21) Taylor Swift – “Begin Again” (12.080) 22) Casey James – “Crying On A Suitcase” (11.300) 23) Darius Rucker – “True Believers” (10.870) 24) Dierks Bentley – “Tip It On Back” (9.430) 25) Thomas Rhett – “Beer With Jesus” (8.630) 26) Gary Allan – “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” (8.000) 27) Jon Pardi – “Missin’ You Crazy” (7.100) 28) Kacey Musgraves – “Merry Go ‘Round” (6.320) 29-31) Little Big Town – “Tornado” (5.950) 29-31) Kristen Kelly – “Ex-Old Man” (5.700) 29-31) Eli Young Band – “Say Goodnight” (5.530) 32) Chris Cagle – “Let There Be Cowgirls” (4.630) 33) Faith Hill – “American Heart” (4.150) 34-36) Maggie Rose – “I Ain’t Your Mama” (3.040) 34-36) Lauren Alaina – “Eighteen Inches” (2.950) 34-36) Rodney Atkins – “Just Wanna Rock ‘N’ Roll” (2.900) 37) Randy Rogers Band – “One More Sad Song” (2.120) 38-40) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (1.900) 38-40) Parmalee – “Musta Had A Good Time” (1.800) 38-40) Alan Jackson – “You Go Your Way” (1.800) 41-43) Katie Armiger – “Better In A Black Dress” (1.500) 41-43) Kelleigh Bannen – “Sorry On The Rocks” (1.450) 41-43) Hunter Hayes – “Somebody’s Heartbreak” (1.450) 44-45) The Lost Trailers – “American Beauty” (1.280) 44-45) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (1.250) 46) Kix Brooks – “Bring It On Home” (1.140) 47-50) Tyler Farr – “Hello Goodbye” (0.900) 47-50) Clay Walker – “Jesse James” (0.870) 47-50) Colt Ford (featuring Jake Owen) – “Back” (0.870) 47-50) Brantley Gilbert – “Kick It In The Sticks” [last week] (0.870) 51-60) Chris Young – “I Can Take It From There” [NEW!] 51-60) Joanna Smith – “We Can’t Be Friends” 51-60) The Farm – “Be Grateful” 51-60) Lonestar – “The Countdown” 51-60) David Nail – “Someone Like You” 51-60) Jason Aldean (featuring Luke Bryan & Eric Church) – “The Only Way I Know” [NEW!] 51-60) Brantley Gilbert – “More Than Miles” [NEW!] 51-60) JT Hodges - “Sleepy Little Town” 51-60) Brett Eldredge – “Don’t Ya?” 51-60) Thompson Square – “If I Didn’t Have You” [NEW!]
Dropping Off: Craig Campbell's "Outta My Head", Uncle Kracker's "Nobody's Sad On A Saturday Night", High Valley's "Love You For A Long Time", and Steve Holy's "Hauled Off And Kissed Me"
Comments:
First off, I gotta say...wow. Two things really jumped out at me today when I finally got a chance to run through all the numbers and look at everything. We're set to have 8 songs on Billboard with over 30 million in audience. I have never seen that before. I think I've seen 6 before, and that's only happened a few times, too. Tons of big songs in the top 10 right now, which means that they probably all won't hit #1. Easton Corbin has still gained some this week, but looks to fall back from his #5 rank last week. Miranda's timing doesn't look all that good, either. Luke Bryan has successfully navigated the rough waters, and I think Jake Owen will get through the competition as well.
The second thing that was obvious this week is that it doesn't seem likely that we'll have any recurrents. Jason Aldean and Dustin Lynch are both on their way down but may not go recurrent until the 11/17 chart, and the plunging "Truck Yeah" won't go recurrent until then either. By rule, Brantley's "Kick It In The Sticks" gets one last week. Both Lauren Alaina and Colt Ford had been bullet-less for the last 2 weeks, but each looks set to re-bullet and also set a new peak tomorrow. Kristen Kelly should hang on, and none of the other songs 21 weeks and older are ready to leave. Crazy, crazy chart. Probably the strongest top 10 I've seen, maybe even top 20. And to top it off, we've got a flood of new songs hitting the airwaves this month...
Anyway, up at the top, look for Carrie's "Blown Away" to hang on to a 2nd week at #1. Lee Brice looks like he's gonna make it close, but he'll probably have to wait one more week 'til he replaces Carrie. As mentioned already, Luke Bryan continues to do very well and could crack the top 3. Easton Corbin, Miranda Lambert, and Rascal Flatts are all hanging in there, but I wonder how much higher any of them can go. I think Easton's probably peaked at #5, and I can't see Miranda or RF getting all that much higher. Kip Moore, on the other hand, continues to do great with "Beer Money" set to blast into the top 10. Just below him, we find Florida Georgia Line, Justin Moore, Eric Church, and Greg Bates all battling with each other. Kenny, Brad, and the ZBB continue to do quite well, while Toby looks like he's reverted to his former "falling short of the top 10" days of before his last album.
Randy Houser and Taylor Swift are also doing quite well, with Darius Rucker and Dierks Bentley moving a bit slower, likely because of all the big names ahead. Gary Allan and Kacey Musgraves have both had solid weeks and should make headway further into the top 30. Little Big Town's "Tornado" is on a roll, but the same can't be said for Alan Jackson's "You Go Your Way", as he struggles to gain ground and hang on to his top 40 placement. Lauren Alaina has had a bit of a better week and should move up a bit, along with Gloriana and the Randy Rogers Band. Meanwhile, Katie Armiger and Kelleigh Bannen continue to creep closer toward nabbing their first top 40 hits.
Hunter Hayes' "Somebody's Heartbreak" should jump up a bunch of spots, and looks like it's gonna be another big hit (who's surprised? Not me!) Not too far below Hunter, we've got a ton of new releases, so many that it was nearly impossible for me to discern who would be at #51, and who would be at #60, and who would gain ground but might still fall out of the top 60. Ultimately, it doesn't look too good for Craig Campbell and Uncle Kracker this week, as they both seem likely to get knocked out of the top 60. Again, this is because we'll have no recurrents this week. At the same time, you've got a bunch of new artists all trying to move up, including Joanna Smith, The Farm, JT Hodges, and Brett Eldredge.
Finally, we've got some bigger releases that just won't wait to debut, which is why a handful of songs will get bumped out of the top 60, at least for this week. While the audience numbers for 51-60 all look like they could be very close (anywhere in the 500-800k range), I do think Chris Young is likely to score the strongest debut, with the Jason Aldean/Luke Bryan/Eric Church collaboration likely debuting not too far back. Brantley Gilbert's new single "More Than Miles" should also debut, and I think Thompson Square's "If I Didn't Have You" will debut. There will be many songs outside the top 60 that would normally be on the chart based on audience total, but because of this crazy strong competitive week, they'll have to wait another week or so to debut or re-enter. This group of songs--the "honorable mentions" for this week--includes Craig Campbell's "Outta My Head", Josh Turner's "Find Me A Baby", Kristy Lee Cook's "Airborne Ranger Infantry", Montgomery Gentry's "I'll Keep The Kids", Uncle Kracker's "Nobody's Sad On A Saturday Night", and Josh Abbott Band's "I'll Sing About Mine".
Fortunately, it looks like we may get a housecleaning on the 11/17 chart!
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mikem
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Gillian Welch 'The Harrow and the Harvest'
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Posts: 242
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Post by mikem on Oct 21, 2012 23:51:18 GMT -5
Yay for new chart projections. Seems like there has been a constant onslaught of new songs from some of the biggest stars in the business over the past couple of months, and I guess that helps explain the congestion throughout the chart. And, with eight songs pulling 30M AI, there sure isn't much left for the poor souls trying to slog their way up the charts the slow and steady way.
Jason and Dustin are making a slow exit aren't they? Looks like it will take both three weeks to drop out of the top 10 after their decline started. Thanks for the chart.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2012 0:10:44 GMT -5
Jason's slow decline doesn't surprise me, as his song is a 3-week #1 that is still just on its 13th week. I am a bit surprised at Dustin's rate of decline, though...I thought he'd plunge off about as fast as Josh Turner and Jana Kramer did. However, I'm guessing that next week, Dustin will start to really fall, and will drop below Jason. Both of them look likely to be a little over 32 million yet on tomorrow's chart, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Dustin drop ~7 million or so this coming week, with Jason maybe losing only ~4 or 5 million. So I think Dustin especially will only get tomorrow and then the 11/10 chart in the top 10. If he's down in the 25 million range a week from now, by the 11/17 issue, he'll definitely be replaced in the top 10, most likely by "Cruise". Jason will probably go recurrent then, too, as I'd think either Justin Moore, Greg Bates, Eric Church, or even Kenny or Brad could have enough audience/spins to bump Jason off.
And that's why I don't think the timing is particularly good for Miranda, Rascal Flatts, and Easton. I actually think we could see Easton start to come down this week. I think, at best, he'll be #7, with Luke and Jake set to go by, and that likely won't be too appealing to Mercury. Plus, Easton's already secured that top 5 peak.
Miranda and Rascal Flatts will both hit the 23-week mark tomorrow. All of Miranda's top 3 hits got there in less time than that. Rascal Flatts' chart runs, aside from lead single "Banjo", have been slowing a bit, so they may hang around a bit more, but I don't see either FGIT or CWMU as #1 hits. Miranda can probably pass Easton, Dustin, and Jason this week, to be at #5 on the 11/10 chart (her 24th week), but she'll still be behind Carrie, Lee, Jake, and Luke, and I just see Luke and Jake's songs as stronger than Miranda's, in terms of chart performance, so I don't really think she can idle there behind them while the weeks rack up. Maybe she can get up to #3, though. And Rascal Flatts, while maybe being only 1 spot behind Miranda, is more than 5 million behind her in audience. They'll need another 13-14 million to contend for #1, and their current pace is not nearly quick enough to get them there either, so I'll say that top 5 is the ceiling for them. Kip Moore and Florida Georgia Line are quickly closing the gap between themselves and the Flatts boys, too. Then you've got Justin and Greg having those long, strong chart runs that get you to the top 10 and can keep you on the chart 30-40 weeks. They're still looking good to hit the top 10 in a few weeks, and Eric Church's "Creepin'" is still hanging in there. And below them, you've got some especially heavy-hitters coming up, with Kenny, Brad, ZBB, and Taylor all looking strong. So I fully expect those songs just outside the top 10 to continue gaining strong, though most of them will eventually get passed by Kenny, Brad, etc.
A very strong top 20, indeed.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Oct 22, 2012 16:09:10 GMT -5
Country Airplay *** No. 1 *** "Blown Away" Carrie Underwood Greatest Gainer No. 11 "Cruise" Florida Georgia Line Hot Shot Debut No. 47 "The Only Way I Know" Jason Aldean With Luke Bryan & Eric Church Debut No. 48 "I Can Take It From There" Chris Young Debut No. 53 "More Than Miles" Brantley Gilbert Debut No. 56 "If I Didn't Have You" Thompson Square
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2012 16:13:27 GMT -5
Got my 4 debuts right at least! The Jason/Luke/Eric song must've gotten some big weekend spins. Not sure if it's the official 2nd single or not. It would make sense, but then again, we used to get more songs charting from unsolicited airplay for a while, and the single would climb with no problem, so they could still go with "Night Train", which seems like an obvious single. Or they can keep the collaboration as the 2nd single and hold off on NT, sending it out 3rd.
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mikem
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Gillian Welch 'The Harrow and the Harvest'
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Post by mikem on Oct 22, 2012 17:44:41 GMT -5
Got my 4 debuts right at least! I call voodoo.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Oct 22, 2012 18:51:11 GMT -5
Got my 4 debuts right at least! The Jason/Luke/Eric song must've gotten some big weekend spins. Not sure if it's the official 2nd single or not. It would make sense, but then again, we used to get more songs charting from unsolicited airplay for a while, and the single would climb with no problem, so they could still go with "Night Train", which seems like an obvious single. Or they can keep the collaboration as the 2nd single and hold off on NT, sending it out 3rd. The Only Way I Know got 8 adds today. Still can't find anything saying it's the next single, but that's quite a bit of unsolicited play. Might sway their decision (much like 5150's unsolicited play prompted Capitol to go with that before TIOB for Dierks).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 0:14:59 GMT -5
I was updating the document I use to keep track of the chart airplay and all the adds dates and such, and I just realized that David Nail's "Someone Like You" dropped off Billboard. So I checked on AllAccess, looking up WUSN's playlist (big station in Chicago), as they were the only one playing the song. I saw that it only dropped 4 spins for the week, so I was surprised to see it fall off of Billboard. It had been getting about 25 spins at WUSN, which amounted in 570-600k+ in audience. David was at #49 on the 10/27 chart, with 678k in total audience, but then I realized...oh yeah, the #60 song on last night's chart had 578k in total audience, and if David lost only 4 spins at WUSN, that was probably enough to drop him below that.
Absolutely crazy, how high the low songs are in audience. Time for another house-cleaning. I wonder if David can re-chart, or if WUSN will continue to decrease airplay for the song, now that it's off the chart.
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mikem
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Gillian Welch 'The Harrow and the Harvest'
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Post by mikem on Oct 24, 2012 10:14:17 GMT -5
I've been resisting asking this question because the answer is probably gonna make me feel dumb, but since I can't figure it out on my own: Why is the chart that comes out on Oct. 22 referred to as the 11/3 issue of Billboard Country Airplay?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 17:56:25 GMT -5
I've been resisting asking this question because the answer is probably gonna make me feel dumb, but since I can't figure it out on my own: Why is the chart that comes out on Oct. 22 referred to as the 11/3 issue of Billboard Country Airplay? I wondered this for a while too before someone kindly explained it to me. It has to due with Billboard magazine...we get the chart online on Mondays, but it won't be featured in the print magazine until the following week. So, for the chart that came out on Monday the 22nd, it will be in the magazine on newsstands the following week, ending Saturday, the 3rd of November. Hope that clears it up for you! :)
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mikem
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Gillian Welch 'The Harrow and the Harvest'
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Post by mikem on Oct 25, 2012 0:21:33 GMT -5
^ Thanks. Makes sense but I never would have figured it out.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2012 2:34:19 GMT -5
A little late this week, but better late than never, right?
Here are my predictions for the 11/17 Billboard Country Airplay chart. I have included the projected audience totals (in millions) in parentheses for the top 50 songs.
1) Lee Brice – “Hard To Love” (38.750) 2) Luke Bryan – “Kiss Tomorrow Goodbye” (38.200) 3) Jake Owen – “The One That Got Away” (35.040) 4) Miranda Lambert – “Fastest Girl In Town” (33.800) 5) Easton Corbin – “Lovin’ You Is Fun” (32.750) 6) Carrie Underwood – “Blown Away” (30.790) 7) Florida Georgia Line – “Cruise” (27.920) 8) Rascal Flatts – “Come Wake Me Up” (26.790) 9) Justin Moore – “’Til My Last Day” (25.960) 10) Kip Moore – “Beer Money” (25.330) 11-12) Greg Bates – “Did It For The Girl” (21.000) 11-12) Eric Church – “Creepin’” (20.710) 13-14) Zac Brown Band – “Goodbye In Her Eyes” (19.600) 13-14) Brad Paisley – “Southern Comfort Zone” (19.540) 15) Kenny Chesney – “El Cerrito Place” (17.660) 16) Randy Houser – “How Country Feels” (16.280) 17) Taylor Swift – “Begin Again” (15.750) 18) Toby Keith – “I Like Girls That Drink Beer” (13.090) [last week] 19-21) Darius Rucker – “True Believers” (12.080) 19-21) Gary Allan – “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” (12.000) 19-21) Dierks Bentley – “Tip It On Back” (11.830) 22) Casey James – “Crying On A Suitcase” (10.600) 23) Thomas Rhett – “Beer With Jesus” (9.240) 24) Little Big Town – “Tornado” (8.650) 25) Jon Pardi – “Missin’ You Crazy” (8.280) 26) Kacey Musgraves – “Merry Go ‘Round” (7.650) 27-28) Chris Cagle – “Let There Be Cowgirls” (6.090) 27-28) Eli Young Band – “Say Goodnight” (6.000) 29-30) Hunter Hayes – “Somebody’s Heartbreak” (5.830) 29-30) Jason Aldean (with Luke Bryan and Eric Church) – “The Only Way I Know” (5.500) 31) The Band Perry – “Better Dig Two” (5.300) [NEW!] 32) Faith Hill – “American Heart” (4.200) 33) Maggie Rose – “I Ain’t Your Mama” (3.540) 34-35) Rodney Atkins – “Just Wanna Rock ‘N’ Roll” (3.200) 34-35) Lauren Alaina – “Eighteen Inches” (3.110) 36) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (2.710) 37-39) Chris Young – “I Can Take It From There” (2.150) 37-39) Randy Rogers Band – “One More Sad Song” (2.120) 37-39) George Strait – “Give It All We Got Tonight” (2.100) [NEW!] 40-41) Kelleigh Bannen – “Sorry On The Rocks” (1.960) 40-41) Thompson Square – “If I Didn’t Have You” (1.930) 42-45) Parmalee – “Musta Had A Good Time” (1.720) 42-45) The Lost Trailers – “American Beauty” (1.670) 42-45) Hayden Panettiere – “Telescope” (1.600) 42-45) Katie Armiger – “Better In A Black Dress” (1.540) 46-47) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (1.320) 46-47) Brantley Gilbert – “More Than Miles” (1.270) 48-50) Tim McGraw – “One Of Those Nights” (1.100) [NEW!] 48-50) Craig Campbell – “Outta My Head” (1.090) 48-50) Tyler Farr – “Hello Goodbye” (1.050) 51-54) Colt Ford (featuring Jake Owen) – “Back” 51-54) Jana Kramer – “Whiskey” 51-54) The Farm – “Be Grateful” 51-54) Clay Walker – “Jesse James” 55-58) Joanna Smith – “We Can’t Be Friends” 55-58) Josh Turner – “Find Me A Baby” 55-58) Uncle Kracker – “Nobody’s Sad On A Saturday Night” 55-58) Lonestar – “The Countdown” 59) Brett Eldredge – “Don’t Ya?” 60) Love & Theft – “Runnin’ Out Of Air” [NEW!]
Dropping Off: Jason Aldean's "Take A Little Ride", Tim McGraw's "Truck Yeah", Alan Jackson's "You Go Your Way", and Kristy Lee Cook's "Airborne Ranger Infantry"
Comments:
At first glance, it's an incredibly tough chart...it's quite possible that songs near the bottom will need 600k just to chart. At the top, we're still set to have 5 songs over 32 million, which is an incredibly strong top 5. The whole top 10 and through the top 20 is very strong, so not everyone is gonna keep going up. For now, Easton Corbin, Rascal Flatts, and Eric Church are all hanging in there, while Toby Keith has put up the white flag, with the remaining songs inside the top 20 looking very strong. Lee Brice is falling now, and has ceded the #1 spot on Mediabase to Luke Bryan, but Billboard looks like it'll be a different story. I can't be so sure, though, as it looks to be close. Jake Owen and Miranda Lambert would be next in line after Luke, but I'm not entirely sure Miranda will make it to the top.
Florida Georgia Line continues to cruise up the chart quickly, and Justin Moore's "'Til My Last Day" has also become red hot after one of the strangest chart runs I've personally seen. Kip Moore continues to do quite well with "Beer Money", but it looks like Justin is gonna get back by him, and score just his 4th top 10 hit. Meanwhile, Greg Bates and Eric Church continue to move toward the top 10; they're just moving a little slower than the songs ahead of them, and the ones behind them as well. The Zac Brown Band's "Goodbye In Her Eyes" has caught fire, last week jumping 5 spots and passing Kenny Chesney in the process, and this week the ZBB looks poised to sneak ahead of Brad's "Southern Comfort Zone"--a lead single that's doing pretty well, but that just goes to show how well the ZBB tune is doing.
The aforementioned Chesney tune should creep into the top 15, but it has really slowed down over the last few weeks. Not too far behind him, we find Randy Houser and Taylor Swift continuing to do quite well. Toby Keith, however, will spend his last week on the chart with "I Like Girls That Drink Beer". Darius Rucker and Gary Allan should round out the top 20, with Dierks Bentley right there as well. Gary has his fastest climbing song in years. Casey James remains stuck just outside the top 20 and will need to step up his game to avoid going recurrent soon. Just below him, Little Big Town's "Tornado" continues to pick up steam, along with Kacey Musgraves' "Merry Go 'Round". Look for Hunter Hayes to blast into the top 30, along with Jason Aldean's new single featuring Luke Bryan and Eric Church. Both Hayes' "Somebody's Heartbreak" and Aldean's "The Only Way I Know" have all the early signs of a big hit.
Another song that has those early signs is The Band Perry's "Better Dig Two", the lead single from their sophomore album and just their 6th single overall. It looks like it'll debut just outside the top 30, which is rather incredible. Meanwhile, Faith Hill, Maggie Rose, Lauren Alaina, and Gloriana continue to make slow progress, while Rodney Atkins fights from going recurrent. George Strait's new single is looking at a likely top 40 debut, which looks like a pretty decent start for the King. Also new to the top 40 this week will likely be Chris Young and Kelleigh Bannen, although Thompson Square could challenge for that last spot. Hayden Panettiere is also on the move, but Parmalee, The Lost Trailers, and Katie Armiger will all likely slip back a bit.
Tim McGraw should debut in the top 50, with adds date still a week away. Jana Kramer is also making early progress, but the going remains tough for Tyler Farr, The Farm, Clay Walker, Joanna Smith, Brett Eldredge, Lonestar, and even Josh Turner. Love & Theft's new single has a decent chance to debut this week, but like I mentioned earlier, it's gonna take a lot of audience just to chart, a trend that we've seen over the last couple of weeks as more and more releases hit the chart. So, likely battling it out with Love & Theft in the 500-600k+ range, just for the last spot or two on the chart, will be Kristy Lee Cook, JT Hodges, Montgomery Gentry, and Jerrod Niemann.
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mikem
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Post by mikem on Nov 5, 2012 11:21:43 GMT -5
Will be interesting to see how the Lee/Luke battle ends up. I have to admit I'm pulling against "Fastest Girl in Town." I like Miranda, but I think this song and "Baggage Claim" were two bad songs. I admit, though, that radio passed me by long ago.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2012 15:07:44 GMT -5
Will be interesting to see how the Lee/Luke battle ends up. I have to admit I'm pulling against "Fastest Girl in Town." I like Miranda, but I think this song and "Baggage Claim" were two bad songs. I admit, though, that radio passed me by long ago. I'm not a fan of the Miranda tune, either. But, it's important to note that both she and Jake are on RCA, so the label could try to get them both to #1, and right now it looks like Jake would get there first, at least on Billboard. The label would most likely want to crown them both #1's, rather than have Jake block Miranda. But Miranda's chart climb has just been completely unremarkable...her last 3 singles all climbed much faster, and "Heart Like Mine" was the 5th single from Revolution. Jake's song has been on the charts a week longer than FGIT has, but he's not the star that she is. If Lee is #1 again today, I still expect Luke Bryan to get the next chart at #1. Then probably Jake, but we'll see how things play out with Miranda. If we're assuming Luke is #1 in a week, and then Jake 2 weeks from now, can Miranda hold off Florida Georgia Line that long? Over the past few charts, we've watched a huge gap open up between Jake/Miranda and Rascal Flatts, and then another big gap was between RF and FGL/Kip Moore. FGL especially is on the move, along with both Kip and Justin Moore, and FGL erased the gap up to the Flatts boys, and passed them last week, and now they're closing the gap on that strong top 5. I guess, to me, Miranda's song just hasn't been acting like a future #1; a solid top 5 for sure, but it just hasn't seemed to be cutting it enough to get all the way to the top, whereas Jake Owen has had a stronger run since entering the top 20.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Nov 5, 2012 18:01:10 GMT -5
Chart Highlights for Country Airplay 11/17/2012
Country Airplay *** No. 1 *** "Hard To Love" Lee Brice Greatest Gainer No. 30 "Better Dig Two" The Band Perry Debut No. 37 "Give It All We Got Tonight" George Strait Debut No. 44 "One Of Those Nights" Tim McGraw Debut No. 55 "Don't Rush" Kelly Clarkson Featuring Vince Gill
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2012 14:47:08 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for the 11/24 Billboard Country Airplay chart. I have included the projected audience totals (in millions of impressions) for the top 50 songs. Enjoy! :)
1) Luke Bryan – “Kiss Tomorrow Goodbye” (38.450) 2) Jake Owen – “The One That Got Away” (36.430) 3-4) Miranda Lambert – “Fastest Girl In Town” (33.200) 3-4) Lee Brice – “Hard To Love” (33.110) 5) Florida Georgia Line – “Cruise” (30.580) 6) Justin Moore – “’Til My Last Day” (28.070) 7) Rascal Flatts – “Come Wake Me Up” (26.790) 8-9) Kip Moore – “Beer Money” (26.230) 8-9) Easton Corbin – “Lovin’ You Is Fun” [last week] (26.040) 10-11) Greg Bates – “Did It For The Girl” (21.790) 10-11) Eric Church – “Creepin’” (21.610) 12) Zac Brown Band – “Goodbye In Her Eyes” (21.180) 13-14) Brad Paisley – “Southern Comfort Zone” (19.440) 13-14) Kenny Chesney – “El Cerrito Place” (19.130) 15) Randy Houser – “How Country Feels” (18.130) 16) Taylor Swift – “Begin Again” (16.360) 17) Gary Allan – “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” (13.900) 18) Darius Rucker – “True Believers” (12.950) 19) Dierks Bentley – “Tip It On Back” (12.460) 20-21) Casey James – “Crying On A Suitcase” (10.640) 20-21) Jason Aldean (with Luke Bryan & Eric Church) – “The Only Way I Know” (10.640) 22-24) Little Big Town – “Tornado” (10.130) 22-24) Thomas Rhett – “Beer With Jesus” (9.840) 22-24) The Band Perry – “Better Dig Two” (9.810) 25) Kacey Musgraves – “Merry Go ‘Round” (8.550) 26-27) Hunter Hayes – “Somebody’s Heartbreak” (7.620) 26-27) Jon Pardi – “Missin’ You Crazy” (7.370) 28) Eli Young Band – “Say Goodnight” (6.860) 29) Chris Cagle – “Let There Be Cowgirls” (6.320) 30) Faith Hill – “American Heart” (4.400) 31-32) Rodney Atkins – “Just Wanna Rock ‘N’ Roll” (3.640) 31-32) Maggie Rose – “I Ain’t Your Mama” (3.600) 33-34) Tim McGraw – “One Of Those Nights” (3.330) 33-34) Lauren Alaina – “Eighteen Inches” (3.050) 35-38) Thompson Square – “If I Didn’t Have You” (2.730) 35-38) Chris Young – “I Can Take It From There” (2.730) 35-38) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (2.650) 35-38) George Strait – “Give It All We Got Tonight” (2.550) 39-42) Parmalee – “Musta Had A Good Time” (1.650) 39-42) Hayden Panettiere – “Telescope” (1.600) 39-42) Brantley Gilbert – “More Than Miles” (1.560) 39-42) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (1.520) 43-45) The Lost Trailers – “American Beauty” (1.400) 43-45) Kelleigh Bannen – “Sorry On The Rocks” (1.320) 43-45) Jana Kramer – “Whiskey” (1.300) 46) Craig Campbell – “Outta My Head” (1.180) 47-50) Tyler Farr – “Hello Goodbye” (1.050) 47-50) Kelly Clarkson (featuring Vince Gill) – “Don’t Rush” (1.000) 47-50) The Farm – “Be Grateful” (0.970) 47-50) Clay Walker – “Jesse James” (0.970) 51-53) Jerrod Niemann – “Only God Could Love You More” [NEW!] 51-53) Colt Ford (featuring Jake Owen) – “Back” 51-53) Toby Keith – “Hope On The Rocks” [NEW!] 54) Kristy Lee Cook – “Airborne Ranger Infantry” (RE) 55-60) Josh Turner – “Find Me A Baby" 55-60) Joanna Smith – “We Can’t Be Friends” 55-60) Carrie Underwood – “Two Black Cadillacs” [NEW!] 55-60) Dustin Lynch – “She Cranks My Tractor” [NEW!] 55-60) Love & Theft – “Runnin’ Out Of Air” [NEW!] 55-60) Lonestar – “The Countdown”
Dropping Off: Carrie Underwood's "Blown Away", Toby Keith's "I Like Girls That Drink Beer", Randy Rogers Band's "One More Sad Song", Katie Armiger's "Better In A Black Dress", Uncle Kracker's "Nobody's Sad On A Saturday Night", and Brett Eldredge's "Don't Ya"
Comments:
The chart remains quite congested, with songs near the top having very high audience totals (38 million +) and songs near the bottom also having unusually high audience totals for those positions. Once again, it'll likely take more than 600k just to chart, which means we'll have a rather large handful of songs in the 400-600k range that 95% of the time would be within the top 60, but that hasn't been the trend for the last few weeks.
Anyway...after hanging on to a 2nd week at #1 last week, Lee Brice's "Hard To Love" will give way to Luke Bryan's "Kiss Tomorrow Goodbye". It'll be Luke's 5th Billboard #1. Behind him will be Jake Owen, looking quite strong and likely to follow Luke at #1. Miranda is still hanging in there, but she's slowed to a crawl and may have trouble lasting long enough to get her shot at #1. Look for Florida Georgia Line to crack the top 5, with Justin Moore surprisingly hanging in there after a long trek to the top 10. Rascal Flatts has caught a 2nd wind this week, and Kip Moore continues to make solid gains. Easton Corbin, on the other hand, has finally thrown in the towel after a #5 peak with "Lovin' You Is Fun". He'll spend his last week on the chart. The last top 10 spot will be up for grabs between Greg Bates and Eric Church, with Greg the slight front-runner.
The Zac Brown Band continues to roll and will really close the gap on Greg, Eric, and the top 10 this week, while distancing themselves from Brad and Kenny. After a couple of slower weeks, Kenny has picked up the pace a bit this week, but now Brad has cooled down some. Randy Houser's "How Country Feels" is doing very well and should enter the top 15, which would make it his 2nd highest-charting hit, just ahead of the #16 hit "Anything Goes" (from way back in 2008), and only trailing the #2 hit "Boots On" (2009). Gary Allan is also on a roll, as his "Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)" looks poised to land at #17 in just its 11th week, which would also give him his biggest hit since 2008 when "Learning How To Bend" stalled at #13. Meanwhile, Taylor Swift, Dierks Bentley, and Casey James have all had slower weeks.
Little Big Town and Hunter Hayes continue to do very well with their new singles, but new singles from Jason Aldean and The Band Perry are doing even better. The Jason/Luke/Eric collaboration could challenge Casey James for the last top 20 spot. Kacey Musgraves continues to move up quite well, while Jon Pardi and Chris Cagle are moving more slowly. Faith Hill is also moving rather slowly, but it does look like she'll crack the top 30 this week. Rodney Atkins, Maggie Rose, and Lauren Alaina all continue their very slow progress, with Gloriana also slowing up a bit. George Strait's new single has started off much slower than his last lead single "Here For A Good Time" did (which doesn't seem like a good sign), and George could actually wind up getting passed by Chris Young and Thompson Square. Tim McGraw will certainly move ahead, with "One Of Those Nights" off to a great start. And even Hayden Panettiere could close in on George..
Brantley Gilbert and Craig Morgan are both doing fairly well and could crack the top 40 or at least come very close to it. Kelleigh Bannen looks likely to take a hit and fall back a little, but it's the opposite story for Jana Kramer's "Whiskey" and Kelly Clarkson's "Don't Rush", as their new singles should blast up several spots this week, likely into the top 50. Tyler Farr, Clay Walker, The Farm, Colt Ford, Josh Turner, and Joanna Smith all continue to struggle making progress.
Carrie Underwood's "Blown Away" should drop out of the top 10 in spins and be our first recurrent for the week. Toby Keith's "I Like Girls That Drink Beer" will be the 2nd one to leave, after peaking at #17 three weeks ago. The Randy Rogers Band's "One More Sad Song" also looks likely to leave, and I think there's a good chance that Katie Armiger's "Better In A Black Dress" will join them. Finally, with a slew of songs hitting the radio this fall, some slow-movers will likely once again get pushed out of the top 60 this week. I think Uncle Kracker and Brett Eldredge are the most likely to get bumped out, to make room for the debuting songs.
Jerrod Niemann looks likely to score a very strong hot shot debut, while Toby Keith and Carrie Underwood are also likely to debut with new singles. Kristy Lee Cook should re-enter quite easily, and there's also a good chance to see debuts from Dustin Lynch and Love & Theft, although Uncle Kracker, Brett Eldredge, Montgomery Gentry, JT Hodges, and Sarah Darling could also compete for the last couple of spots on the chart.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Nov 25, 2012 20:29:34 GMT -5
What songs are going recurrent tomorrow?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2012 20:52:45 GMT -5
What songs are going recurrent tomorrow? Lee Brice's "Hard To Love", Rodney Atkins' "Just Wanna Rock 'N' Roll", and Parmalee's "Musta Had A Good Time" will all go recurrent. There's a chance that Jon Pardi's "Missin' You Crazy" could drop off as well, but it may get a grace week or even hang on to its bullet. Also, a couple songs at the bottom might drop off. These would likely be Tyler Farr's "Hello Goodbye", Colt Ford's "Back", and Clay Walker's "Jesse James". I'd guess a couple of them will stay on, though, as they need one more drop week to go recurrent (last week was only the first negative week for each of them, and none of them are 21+ weeks old), and not that many songs are clamoring to debut for once. I haven't been following the charts as much the last 2 weeks but I'll probably be back to it this coming week. My wrist was hurting so I couldn't type for long periods of time, but it's doing pretty good now. I'll post again with who will debut or re-enter.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2012 22:09:02 GMT -5
For debuts/re-entries...I think Joanna Smith might get back on. Aaron Lewis should debut. Sarah Darling also has a decent chance to debut. We could even seen the Mumford & Sons song "I Will Wait" chart, but it all depends on how many songs drop off. Sweetwater Rain and the new Lee Brice song could also be in the running.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2012 1:17:42 GMT -5
I should have predictions back up on Sunday. It's been a really strange week. Out of the top 50 songs on Mediabase, 20 of them have lost audience since Monday. I don't know exactly why...there haven't been any significant panel changes as far as I can tell. I know we're getting some Christmas music on the airwaves already, but I have a hard time believing there's so much of it that a ton of songs are all struggling. Maybe it's a combination of a decent amount of holiday music, and just a general housecleaning getting ready to happen. There should be a high number of songs going recurrent on the next 2 charts (12/15 & 12/22 issues).
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 1, 2012 1:51:42 GMT -5
I bet a lot of it is from Christmas music, tbqh. Its really starting to plague the airwaves already, which doesn't surprise me since it seems the holiday season always gets pushed up with each passing year. I've had to do a lot of channel surfing due to this lately as I'm not really much of a Christmas music fan.
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Post by josh on Dec 1, 2012 1:53:31 GMT -5
Not to mention Thanksgiving was as early in November as possible this year. I know many stations wait to play any Christmas music until the day after Thanksgiving, so that day being earlier than normal would make Christmas music seem to start earlier as well.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2012 2:34:23 GMT -5
There should be at least 5 recurrents on Monday (Casey James, Jon Pardi, Tyler Farr, Colt Ford, and Clay Walker), so even with some new Christmas tunes hitting the airwaves, there should be a few non-holiday debuts. Kix Brooks will debut. His song isn't getting any airplay except for on the Cumulus stations (which air his new syndicated overnight show), but he's getting quite a bit of airplay on the Cumulus block and should debut. It's the same thing that happened with his last single. I doubt "Moonshine Road" really breaks out anywhere other than the Cumulus stations, and there's no chance that they are able to power it to the top 40.
In addition to Kix, it really looks to me like this will be the week that Mumford & Sons first charts on country radio. Their song "I Will Wait" continues to get significant spins at 4 major stations...36 spins at WWKA Orlando, 28 at KMLE in Phoenix, 19 at KAJA San Antonio, and 12 at WCKT Fort Myers. Add it up and that's 751k in audience on Mediabase. Anything over 500k will probably chart on Billboard, maybe even stuff over 400k (depends on how many holiday tunes snatch the open spots).
Florida Georgia Line's "Get Your Shine On" has gotten almost 50 spins at KMLE Phoenix this week, so I think that one could debut. Lee Brice, Sarah Darling, Sweetwater Rain, and Big & Rich are also in the running, along with Train's "Bruises" f/ Ashley Monroe.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Dec 1, 2012 9:47:41 GMT -5
I'm looking forward to the housecleaning that appears to be coming soon. Some songs near the top of the charts feel like they have been out forever, even ones that I still like. I'm ready for some major movement on the charts.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Dec 1, 2012 11:37:26 GMT -5
I'm looking forward to the housecleaning that appears to be coming soon. Some songs near the top of the charts feel like they have been out forever, even ones that I still like. I'm ready for some major movement on the charts. , Me too. If 4 or all 5 of the prospective recurrents JH named above actually do leave, that's good. (Sorry, Clay.) And then the following week we'll have Rascal Flatts, Miranda Lambert, Lauren Alaina, and some possibility of Thomas Rhett (I doubt it) and Uncle Kracker going recurrent, not to mention Kelleigh Bannen maybe losing enough audience to fall out of the top 60 in only her second drop week. Housecleaning!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 20:18:57 GMT -5
My Top 60 Predictions for 12/15 Billboard Country Airplay chart, with projected audience totals for the top 50 included.
1) Florida Georgia Line – “Cruise” (38.840) 2) Jake Owen – “The One That Got Away” (34.100) 3) Justin Moore – “’Til My Last Day” (32.710) 4) Luke Bryan – “Kiss Tomorrow Goodbye” (32.120) 5) Kip Moore – “Beer Money” (31.200) 6) Zac Brown Band – “Goodbye In Her Eyes” (29.140) 7) Rascal Flatts – “Come Wake Me Up” [last week] (28.150) 8) Miranda Lambert – “Fastest Girl In Town” [last week] (27.600) 9) Greg Bates – “Did It For The Girl” (26.530) 10) Eric Church – “Creepin’” (25.060) 11) Randy Houser – “How Country Feels” (24.180) 12) Brad Paisley – “Southern Comfort Zone” (21.740) 13) Kenny Chesney – “El Cerrito Place” (21.080) 14-15) Taylor Swift – “Begin Again” (19.770) 14-15) Gary Allan – “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” (19.770) 16) Jason Aldean (w/ Luke Bryan & Eric Church) – “The Only Way I Know” (19.010) 17) The Band Perry – “Better Dig Two” (17.320) 18) Dierks Bentley – “Tip It On Back” (16.450) 19) Little Big Town – “Tornado” (14.610) 20) Darius Rucker – “True Believers” (14.000) 21) Tim McGraw – “One Of Those Nights” (12.550) 22) Hunter Hayes – “Somebody’s Heartbreak” (11.720) 23) Thomas Rhett – “Beer With Jesus” (10.970) 24-25) Casey James – “Crying On A Suitcase” (10.620) 24-25) Kacey Musgraves – “Merry Go ‘Round” (10.400) 26-27) Carrie Underwood – “Two Black Cadillacs” (7.970) 26-27) Chris Cagle – “Let There Be Cowgirls” (7.920) 28) Eli Young Band – “Say Goodnight” (7.220) 29-32) Faith Hill – “American Heart” (5.070) 29-32) Thompson Square – “If I Didn’t Have You” (5.070) 29-32) Maggie Rose – “I Ain’t Your Mama” (4.760) 29-32) George Strait – “Give It All We Got Tonight” (4.760) 33) Chris Young – “I Can Take It From There” (4.200) 34) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (3.050) 35-36) Toby Keith – “Hope On The Rocks” (2.870) 35-36) Dustin Lynch – “She Cranks My Tractor” (2.860) 37) Lauren Alaina – “Eighteen Inches” [last week] (2.620) 38) Brantley Gilbert – “More Than Miles” (2.260) 39-40) Hayden Panettiere – “Telescope” (2.030) 39-40) Jana Kramer – “Whiskey” (2.030) 41) Kelly Clarkson (ft. Vince Gill) – “Don’t Rush” (1.900) 42) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (1.760) 43) The Farm – “Be Grateful” (1.680) 44-46) Montgomery Gentry – “I’ll Keep The Kids” (1.540) 44-46) Craig Campbell – “Outta My Head” (1.490) 44-46) Jerrod Niemann – “Only God Could Love You More” (1.460) 47) The Lost Trailers – “American Beauty” [last week] (1.210) 48-51) Love & Theft – “Runnin’ Out Of Air” (1.040) 48-51) Kelleigh Bannen – “Sorry On The Rocks” (1.040) 48-51) Brett Eldredge – “Don’t Ya?” (1.000) 48-51) Kix Brooks – “Moonshine Road” [NEW!] 52-55) Blake Shelton (ft. Miranda Lambert) – “Jingle Bell Rock” 52-55) Josh Turner – “Find Me A Baby” 52-55) Uncle Kracker – “Nobody’s Sad On A Saturday Night” 52-55) Lee Brice – “I Drive Your Truck” [NEW!] 56-57) Lady Antebellum – “A Holly Jolly Christmas” [NEW!] 56-57) Mumford & Sons – “I Will Wait” [NEW!] 58-60) Aaron Lewis – “Forever” 58-60) Sarah Darling – “Home To Me” [NEW!] 58-60) Train (ft. Ashley Monroe) – “Bruises” [NEW!]
Dropping Off: Jon Pardi's "Missin' You Crazy", Tyler Farr's "Hello Goodbye", Clay Walker's "Jesse James", Colt Ford's "Back", Joanna Smith's "We Can't Be Friends", and David Nail's "Someone Like You"
Comments: Will post some later, but I gotta run right now. Joanna and David might hang on, maybe even Colt. Florida Georgia Line's "Get Your Shine On" is in the running to debut also, along with a few other Christmas songs, I'm sure.
Chance that Casey James goes recurrent, but I'll say he gets a grace week.
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dajire4
Platinum Member
If you got such great ambition, then why are you still hanging around?
Joined: December 2011
Posts: 1,228
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Post by dajire4 on Dec 3, 2012 17:55:50 GMT -5
Country Airplay *** No. 1 *** "Cruise" Florida Georgia Line
Greatest Gainer No. 27 "Two Black Cadillacs" Carrie Underwood
Hot Shot Debut No. 53 "I Drive Your Truck" Lee Brice Debut No. 54 "A Holly Jolly Christmas" Lady Antebellum Debut No. 57 "Moonshine Road" Kix Brooks Debut No. 58 "I Will Wait" Mumford & Sons Debut No. 60 "Home To Me" Sarah Darling
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