onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 1, 2013 13:42:43 GMT -5
I see where Carrie Underwood is Karrin Allyson. A couple of years ago, Lady Antebellum was Garyn Fett. Anyone remember that one?
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Apr 1, 2013 19:59:50 GMT -5
54-59) Linda Ronstadt – “I Knew You Were Trouble” [NEW!]It would be nice to see Linda back on the country chart for the first time since 1995. :) I'm actually surprised this didn't chart earlier. I was sure it would have gotten some curiosity spins when it was #1 on pop. I bet it'll hang around for awhile, considering it doesn't look like something from Red is going to country radio anytime soon.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2013 22:10:58 GMT -5
I think the chart right now is the most intensely competitive one I've ever seen. Kip Moore gains more than 1 million, has almost 12 million total impressions, yet he slips 2 spots to #26? That makes for 26 songs over 11 million...
Generally, as a rule of thumb, one can expect the 'cutoff'' for the top 10 to be about 21-22 million, and about 10-11 million for the top 20.
The insane amount of established artists moving up the chart right now is precisely why I predicted a while back that Jake Owen might struggle to hit the top 10 despite the super radio-friendly "Anywhere With You" (which is actually among those doing the best in the 15-26 region of the chart). It's also why I think Dustin Lynch will stall out, why The Henningsens won't truly break through with their debut, why Rascal Flatts will likely miss the top 10, and why Gloriana and Jana Kramer won't be able to follow up their big breakthroughs with other sizable hits. I'm not even sure that Gloriana and Jana can get into the top 20, given the intense logjam.
This situation is really hurting Kelly Clarkson, Easton Corbin, Jerrod Niemann, and Craig Campbell (among others) as well. It's almost scary, looking at all the names occupying the 12-26 spots...Darius Rucker, Eric Church, Brantley Gilbert, Jason Aldean, Brad Paisley, Tim McGraw w/ Taylor Sw!ft, Blake Shelton, The Band Perry, Jake Owen, Zac Brown Band, Rascal Flatts, and Kip Moore...yikes.
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rjz
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Post by rjz on Apr 6, 2013 10:50:52 GMT -5
^^^^ Is country getting too crowded?
I enjoy the variety; I detest listening to the same old. Will it become more like pop where if a song doesn't move quickly its done? Honestly, I wouldn't mind that in a way-I get very tired of some songs my station picks to champion.....hearing them for 35+ weeks. And laugh when I hear it introduced as 'new music' during prime drive time.
I know some don't like it, but I also like the fact that a song doesn't stay at #1 for as long. Music benefits when we hear more of it.
IMO, the problem is when a known name shoots up the chart, stalling other good music behind it. I like Kenny a lot; but 'Pirate Flag' >> more than Glorianna's 'Can't Shake You'? I guess others may disagree, but yikes. Looking at you Jason Aldean, Blake Shelton also-it'd 'sure be cool if you DIDN'T ;)
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phil1996
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Post by phil1996 on Apr 6, 2013 12:43:43 GMT -5
^That's why I'm not even gonna try to watch the ACM Awards tomorrow.
Performances from Carrie Underwood, Taylor Swift, Rascal Flatts, Jason Aldean, Brad Paisley. I've seen them perform only 356474568 times before on Country Award Shows. Nobody different. Bleh.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 12:46:04 GMT -5
^That's why I'm not even gonna try to watch the ACM Awards tomorrow. Performances from Carrie Underwood, Taylor Swift, Rascal Flatts, Jason Aldean, Brad Paisley. I've seen them perform only 356474568 times before on Country Award Shows. Nobody different. Bleh. You're in luck: Rascal Flatts isn't performing! Enjoy the show!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 12:48:52 GMT -5
^That's why I'm not even gonna try to watch the ACM Awards tomorrow. Performances from Carrie Underwood, Taylor Swift, Rascal Flatts, Jason Aldean, Brad Paisley. I've seen them perform only 356474568 times before on Country Award Shows. Nobody different. Bleh. If the big stars didn't perform, the show wouldn't get very good ratings.
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phil1996
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Post by phil1996 on Apr 6, 2013 12:57:00 GMT -5
^ Which is very true, but mindboggling to me. I don't really get how people can settle for the same people year after year. At least add in Jerrod Niemann/Randy Houser/Gary Allan? Some more performers of that caliber. The ones that you never see on the shows.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 13:11:18 GMT -5
^Tune in to the ACA's in December! I understand your complaints but I do think there are new performers that emerge every so often. I mean, slowly you're seeing guys like Keith Urban, Tim McGraw, Toby Keith, etc. get fewer nominations and fewer performances. Tim's in a bit of a comeback right now, of course, but for a few years he wasn't performing. A few years ago, you couldn't see Little Big Town, Eric Church, The Band Perry, Eli Young Band, or Thompson Square on these shows, and many of them have scored recent performances. They gotta keep the big names around though for the ratings, as long as the big names are still "big" and have music out to promote. There's what, roughly 20 performances at such a show? It's gonna be tough for lesser acts and their agents to worm their way into those slots, given the competition that they're up against. These shows want people like Blake, Jason, Carrie, Taylor, Lady A, Luke, Kenny, Brad, Miranda, Zac Brown Band, etc. But I do think we get a decent group of newer performers every few years or so...usually the select few who have truly broken through in the industry.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 6, 2013 13:45:54 GMT -5
^That's why I'm not even gonna try to watch the ACM Awards tomorrow. Performances from Carrie Underwood, Taylor Swift, Rascal Flatts, Jason Aldean, Brad Paisley. I've seen them perform only 356474568 times before on Country Award Shows. Nobody different. Bleh. You're in luck: Rascal Flatts isn't performing! Enjoy the show! Someone loves the law firm of LeVox, DeMarcus, and Rooney!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 13:54:25 GMT -5
^ Which is very true, but mindboggling to me. I don't really get how people can settle for the same people year after year. At least add in Jerrod Niemann/Randy Houser/Gary Allan? Some more performers of that caliber. The ones that you never see on the shows. Couldn't agree more. I was actually just thinking about this the other day -- why aren't some stars with BIG hits on radio right now not performing? Darius Rucker's creaming everyone with "Wagon Wheel", Lee Brice is having an amazing run with "I Drive Your Truck", I can't drive anywhere without hearing Thompson Square's "If I Didn't Have You" or Gary Allan's "Every Storm (Runs Out of Rain)" (even though it is peaked and done, its recurrent airplay has been massive), etc. I get that they want big names like Carrie, Taylor, Lady A, etc., but with the way some of these other stars on the format have been going, I think they would only contribute even more to a healthy ratings draw for the show.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2013 19:23:24 GMT -5
^^^^ Is country getting too crowded? I definitely think it is. There are a LOT of new artists that have broken through recently--Kip Moore, Kacey Musgraves, Jake Owen, Hunter Hayes, Jana Kramer, Brantley Gilbert, Eli Young Band, Florida Georgia Line, Lee Brice, Dustin Lynch, Thompson Square, Randy Houser...and then there are a bunch of other artists that are all being pushed to break through (some have had middling success already) including Scotty McCreery, Jon Pardi, Kristen Kelly, The Henningsens, Casey James, Tyler Farr, Tate Stevens, Thomas Rhett, Greg Bates, Parmalee, Craig Campbell, etc. There's a big group of superstars, and some other guys that have had comebacks of sorts, such as Gary Allan. Other guys like David Nail, Josh Turner, Billy Currington, Easton Corbin, and Justin Moore are all slowly rising up the ranks. It gets really crowded. The success rate for most singles by new artists isn't all that high. I think the industry needs to continue to find other ways (besides radio) to get music noticed by the fans, that way labels can actually release albums even if the single doesn't go top 20. Some labels won't even do that, if they see that digital sales for the single(s) haven't been that high (see Bates, Greg, and Rhett, Thomas).
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Apr 8, 2013 17:38:55 GMT -5
Country Airplay *** No. 1 (1 week)*** "I Drive Your Truck" Lee Brice Greatest Gainer No. 14 "Highway Don't Care" Tim McGraw With Taylor Swift Debut No. 49 "Your Side Of The Bed" Little Big Town Debut No. 59 "Hush Hush" Pistol Annies
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Apr 9, 2013 0:05:26 GMT -5
^ Great to see a strong debut by Little Big Town for their new single (which I love and am rooting for in a big way -- it's probably my fave on Tornado), and also to see Pistol Annies getting their first solo single on the charts!
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dajire4
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Post by dajire4 on Apr 9, 2013 9:02:58 GMT -5
didn't Hell On Heels also chart? ^
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Post by josephmorgan on Apr 9, 2013 13:25:44 GMT -5
It made it up to #55 on the Hot 100, but nothing on the Country side.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Apr 11, 2013 15:34:08 GMT -5
Can we be looking at a housecleaning on Billboard on 4/27? Hunter Hayes will leave, Blake Shelton probably will leave, and then there is Dustin Lynch (possible), Kelly/Vince (unlikely but possible, and I hope it stays), Jana Kramer (might rally), Jerrod Niemann (almost certain), Mumford (probable), and a few more showing signs of leaving soon (RF, maybe Gloriana).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 16:41:53 GMT -5
Can we be looking at a housecleaning on Billboard on 4/27? Hunter Hayes will leave, Blake Shelton probably will leave, and then there is Dustin Lynch (possible), Kelly/Vince (unlikely but possible, and I hope it stays), Jana Kramer (might rally), Jerrod Niemann (almost certain), Mumford (probable), and a few more showing signs of leaving soon (RF, maybe Gloriana). I was thinking the same thing. I've got 5 songs leaving. Hunter, Blake, Dustin, Jerrod, and Mumford. I think Kelly and Jana will stay on for a little while longer yet...I'm sure those promotional teams see that 3 top 20 songs are finally giving up. Dustin, I admit, could rally yet...but I'm about 87% sure he'll leave. Blake might be able to get one more week but I'm hoping either Eric, Brantley, or Tim/Taylor will knock him out of the top 10 in spins. George will definitely be taking Hunter's top 10 spot (Hunter will almost certainly go recurrent). Maybe Blake could fall out in audience too. I don't see any way for Jerrod to hang on. And I don't expect Mumford to get another week either. Also, a few low-end songs (those from Katie Armiger, Austin Webb, and Lonestar) might not all hang on. New Hunter and New Luke should both debut in the top 30. The buzz on Brad Paisley's "Accidental Racist" may cause LL Cool J to enter the country chart for the first time (that song is getting quite a few curiosity spins, and at some big stations too). McCreery, Casey James, and Drake White are other possibilities to debut. And maybe this is the week where Gretchen Wilson finally sneaks on. It'll be her best chance so far, and a chance this good might not come around again for a while.
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Post by Spacey_Kacey on Apr 11, 2013 17:16:36 GMT -5
What's the prognosis on "More Trucks Than Cars"? I've been waiting for that to drop out for awhile now. This it probably going to be its best (and last?) chance for a top 30 showing. I've been rooting against it for awhile, but I guess I won't mind it getting there if it unclogs the chart a little for the following week.
And I just noticed Aaron Lewis isn't going to get knocked off despite being 45 spins on Mediabase. I love that one, and I am happy is came so far. That's just gonna get one more week on Billboard because it has only charted 19 so far and had a bullet last week, correct? I always forget if they can drop during the 20th week, but I'm inclined to say they cannot if there was a bullet the week before. Could be back-to-back house cleanings on Billboard just looking at these two plus several others that have slowed down.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 18:28:23 GMT -5
And I just noticed Aaron Lewis isn't going to get knocked off despite being 45 spins on Mediabase. I love that one, and I am happy is came so far. That's just gonna get one more week on Billboard because it has only charted 19 so far and had a bullet last week, correct? Correct. Aaron is guaranteed 1 more week on Billboard. Songs can't go recurrent until the 21st week, so even if he loses his bullet, he'll get that 20th week yet. I love "Forever" as well and I'm glad it made the top 40 but if I had it my way it'd be a #1. As for Craig Morgan, I think his song is super annoying as well. He has been wasting space ever since MTTC re-entered about 2 months ago. He was at #31 on Monday and with 3 songs likely going recurrent (Hunter, Blake, & Dustin), he has a chance to enter the top 30, but only if he can stay ahead of Sheryl Crow for one last week. New Hunter and New Luke should both debut ahead of Craig, so that would hold him to a +1 move up to #30 (assuming 3 songs do go recurrent), but if Sheryl Crow re-passes him, then he'll be stuck at #31. I've been rooting against Craig ever since he released that song (and "Corn Star", "This Ole Boy", and "Still A Little Chicken Left On That Bone" before it...oh, and I can't forget the dreadful "Bonfire" either).
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Apr 11, 2013 18:48:03 GMT -5
Jhomes, do you think Kristen could return or is that song done for good?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 18:55:55 GMT -5
Jhomes, do you think Kristen could return or is that song done for good? Kristen? As in Kristen Kelly? She's still on the chart...#56 on Monday. No bullet, but her loss was only a minuscule 11k. That said, however, I don't see her song doing much. It's getting passed over by a lot of other new artists' songs, and "He Loves To Make Me Cry" hasn't been getting very many adds lately.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Apr 11, 2013 20:20:19 GMT -5
Wow, my bad---I thought she fell off :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2013 14:23:43 GMT -5
Housecleaning this week looks like it could be bigger than expected. Hunter will leave...Blake might too but I'm starting to think he'll hang on for one final week.
However, Dustin Lynch is all but certain to leave. I think Jana Kramer is going to leave as well, unfortunately. Her losses aren't that big but she's not even really hanging by a thread anymore. And, her song already got its non-bulleted grace week on the 4/20 chart, so it will automatically go recurrent on Monday if it can't get its bullet back. She's down over 350k for the week so far, with a -72 bullet on Mediabase today. Kelly Clarkson looks safe, but we'll say goodbye to Jerrod Niemann for sure. And now Craig Morgan has really fallen off just in the last 2 days or so. Mumford & Sons will leave.
The verdict...I think it's 100% likely that Hunter (SH) leaves. Blake (SBCIYD)...not sure yet. Some of his losses have been from Dial Global so his BB loss might not be as steep. I'm gonna lean towards him getting a final week. But I'm 90% sure Dustin will leave, at least 75% sure Jana will leave, 100% sure that Jerrod will leave, 100% sure that Mumford will leave, and I'll give Craig Morgan about a 60% chance of leaving.
If Blake (SBCIYD) doesn't leave on Monday, he'll definitely be gone the following week. Aaron Lewis could leave then as well. Also, Rascal Flatts looks all but done, but they're guaranteed at least 2 more chart weeks before that one can go recurrent.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Apr 13, 2013 17:59:09 GMT -5
Craig Campbell is also looking weak, I think he'll make the week but it's getting close to the end for him.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2013 0:22:13 GMT -5
Craig Campbell is also looking weak, I think he'll make the week but it's getting close to the end for him. I actually think he'll last for quite a few weeks yet. His song has really picked up steam the last few weeks, and while this week hasn't been too kind, we also need to consider the fact that 2 songs are set to make top 30 bows (Hunter & Luke). Craig's album is out next month and this song is doing exceptionally well in call-out, so I think it can last at least another month. It should go top 30 soon but I'd like to see it catch a final wind and make a run at the top 20. I know it's been out for a while but there are still a lot of people who haven't heard it, since it's been so low down on the chart, and Bigger Picture really needs to get some of their artists up the chart some more.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2013 18:13:30 GMT -5
I did my predictions again this weekend, for tomorrow's chart, and I even put in the projected audience totals. I actually think the numbers might wind up skewed higher all across the board, since the new station WNSH from New York was added to the Billboard panel for this chart week, but the relationships between the songs should stay more or less the same. WNSH's playlist can be accessed through AllAccess, and it's a typical Cumulus playlist...only about 20 new songs are getting airplay there. I can see the spin totals, but no audience numbers on AllAccess yet for that station. The fact that it's on AllAccess at all, though, likely means it'll be added to Mediabase's panel soon as well. Anyway, here are my top 60 predictions with projected audience totals (in millions of impressions) for the top 50. 1) Lady Antebellum – “Downtown” (38.740) 2) Thompson Square – “If I Didn’t Have You” (36.400) 3-4) Chris Young – “I Can Take It From There” (35.480) 3-4) Miranda Lambert – “Mama’s Broken Heart” (35.480) 5) Lee Brice – “I Drive Your Truck” (33.740) 6) Florida Georgia Line – “Get Your Shine On” (32.460) 7) Kenny Chesney – “Pirate Flag” (29.500) 8) Darius Rucker – “Wagon Wheel” (26.270) 9) Blake Shelton – “Sure Be Cool If You Did” (25.620) [last week]10) George Strait – “Give It All We Got Tonight” (23.710) 11) Eric Church – “Like Jesus Does” (21.550) 12-13) Tim McGraw (ft. Taylor Swift) – “Highway Don’t Care” (21.160) 12-13) Brantley Gilbert – “More Than Miles” (21.130) 14) Brad Paisley – “Beat This Summer” (19.790) 15) Jason Aldean – “1994” (18.720) 16) The Band Perry – “Done” (17.540) 17) Jake Owen – “Anywhere With You” (17.110) 18) Blake Shelton (ft. the Pistol Annies) – “Boys ‘Round Here” (16.550) 19) Zac Brown Band – “Jump Right In” (14.420) 20-21) Kip Moore – “Hey Pretty Girl” (13.210) 20-21) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (13.150) 22) The Henningsens – “American Beautiful” (12.550) 23) Rascal Flatts – “Changed” (12.050) 24-25) Easton Corbin – “All Over The Road” (10.300) 24-25) Hunter Hayes – “I Want Crazy” (10.300) [NEW!]26) Luke Bryan – “Crash My Party” (8.000) [NEW!]27-28) Kelly Clarkson (ft. Vince Gill) – “Don’t Rush” (7.390) 27-28) Jana Kramer – “Whiskey” (7.350) 29) Gary Allan – “Pieces” (6.560) 30) Brett Eldredge – “Don’t Ya?” (6.290) 31-32) Sheryl Crow – “Easy” (5.110) 31-32) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (5.100) 33) Craig Campbell – “Outta My Head” (4.500) 34) Randy Houser – “Runnin’ Outta Moonlight” (4.130) 35-36) Billy Currington – “Hey Girl” (3.720) 35-36) Justin Moore – “Point At You” (3.700) 37) Charlie Worsham – “Could It Be?” (3.490) 38-39) Kacey Musgraves – “Blowin’ Smoke” (2.950) 38-39) Aaron Lewis – “Forever” (2.850) 40-41) Tyler Farr – “Redneck Crazy” (2.380) 40-41) Joel Crouse – “If You Want Some” (2.310) 42) Rachel Farley – “Ain’t Easy” (1.980) 43-45) Carrie Underwood – “See You Again” (1.640) 43-45) Little Big Town – “Your Side Of The Bed” (1.550) 43-45) Parmalee – “Carolina” (1.550) 46-47) Maggie Rose – “Better” (1.410) 46-47) Greg Bates – “Fill In The Blank” (1.350) 48-49) Phil Vassar – “Love Is Alive” (1.170) 48-49) Chris Janson – “Better I Don’t” (1.080) 50-51) James Wesley – “Thank A Farmer” (0.840) 50-51) Kix Brooks – “Complete 360” 52) Jon Pardi – “Up All Night” 53) Tate Stevens – “Power Of A Love Song” 54-57) Kristen Kelly – “He Loves To Make Me Cry” 54-57) Lennon & Maisy – “Ho Hey” [NEW!]54-57) Drake White – “The Simple Life” [NEW!]54-57) Pistol Annies – “Hush Hush” 58-60) Katie Armiger – “Playin’ With Fire” 58-60) Lonestar – “Maybe Someday” 58-60) Austin Webb – “It’s All Good” [last week]Dropping Off:- Hunter Hayes - "Somebody's Heartbreak" (#1 peak)
- Dustin Lynch - "She Cranks My Tractor" (#16 peak)
- Jerrod Niemann - "Only God Could Love You More" (#29 peak)
- Mumford & Sons - "I Will Wait" (#37 peak)
Comments:Lady Antebellum's "Downtown" will become their first #1 hit in 16 months, since "We Owned The Night" topped the charts in December 2011. In the meantime, they of course peaked at #2 with "Dancin' Away With My Heart" and #20 with "Wanted You More". Behind them will be Thompson Square, seeking their 2nd #1 hit. Labelmates Chris Young and Miranda Lambert will be battling it out for the #3 spot. Florida Georgia Line and Darius Rucker continue to move up strongly while in between them, we'll have Kenny Chesney, who's really slowed up. Finally, "Give It All We Got Tonight" will become George Strait's 85th Billboard top 10. Behind George, the Tim/Taylor duet continues to move up swiftly while Brantley Gilbert looks like he's almost to the end of the road. The latest from The Band Perry and Jake Owen continue to do well, and Blake's latest "Boys 'Round Here" will jump back into the top 20. It looks like there will be a battle between Kip Moore and Gloriana for the last top 20 spot. Rascal Flatts has apparently peaked, as "Changed" is now on its way down. Easton Corbin's "All Over The Road" has had a pretty good week, building off his last couple of good weeks, as he moves closer to the top 20. Look for big debuts from Hunter Hayes' "I Want Crazy" and Luke Bryan's "Crash My Party". Hayes looks likely to give Corbin a run for the #24 spot, while Luke Bryan will likely slot in at #26, ahead of the struggling ladies Kelly and Jana. Jana might actually go recurrent but she rallied a bit in today's Mediabase update, so I put "Whiskey" back in my list. Gary Allan should move up a bit more. Brett Eldredge is also still hangin' in there but both Craig Morgan and Craig Campbell have really struggled this week, and I'm not sure if either can make it much further. Campbell might be able to hang around a bit longer, with his album not due until next month. Randy Houser and Billy Currington continue to make steady progress, while Kacey Musgraves builds on her fast start with "Blowin' Smoke". Tyler Farr and Joel Crouse will be battling out, as each tries to enter the top 40 for the first time in his career. Carrie Underwood and Little Big Town should bound toward the top 40 but Parmalee and Greg Bates continue to really struggle, and Maggie Rose and Phil Vassar have also had rough weeks. Tate Stevens and Kristen Kelly are also really struggling. In addition to debuts from Hunter and Luke, we'll see a debut from Nashville stars Lennon & Maisy, as their cover of "Ho Hey" is getting a good bit of airplay. Drake White's debut single "The Simple Life" is also likely to finally enter the chart. Finally, we could see Brad Paisley & LL Cool J sneak on the chart with "Accidental Racist", but only if they can bump off someone like Katie Armiger, Austin Webb, or Lonestar. Casey James' "The Good Life" is also in the mix, but it doesn't look like it'll be able to debut just yet.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Apr 22, 2013 20:12:16 GMT -5
I'm getting sick of some of these songs obviously threading water and even though I love some of them I'm more than ready for a major housecleaning. I could 12 songs that all can leave next week if they post big enough losses. Naturally only like 3 of them will go and we'll be stuck with most of the rest for a few weeks more... :/
For those curious these are the one's I think are teetering on the edge of reccurency... Aaron Lewis Forever Brantley Gilbert More Than Miles Brett Eldredge Don't Ya Chris Young I Can Take It From There Craig Campbell Outta My Head Craig Morgan More Trucks Than Cars Gloriana Can't Shake You Greg Bates Fill In The Blank Jana Kramer Whiskey Kelly Clarkson Don't Rush (Feat. Vince Gill) Lee Brice I Drive Your Truck Rascal Flatts Changed
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Post by Old Fart In NC on Apr 22, 2013 20:47:15 GMT -5
^Brantley Gilbert's song is More Than Miles.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Apr 22, 2013 20:56:30 GMT -5
^Brantley Gilbert's song is More Than Miles. Lol Thanks for the catch It must be because of how much I really want "More Trucks Than Cars" gone lol
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