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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 15:11:45 GMT -5
The next chart will be dated January 3, but of course it will only reflect airplay for the current week (15th thru the 21st), so it should still be pretty normal. The January 10 chart is Christmas week, and so most songs will post substantial losses. The Billboard Country Update won't be published on Monday, BUT the numbers can still be found. Over the past few years, this site has had the updated Billboard chart (including audience numbers) on Wednesday mornings even during the Christmas and New Year's weeks. So we won't get the chart or any numbers on Monday, but I'm expecting that link to have the chart for us sometime in the morning of the 24th.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Dec 20, 2014 10:14:35 GMT -5
I'm expecting there to be a mini 'housecleaning' this week, just in time for Christmas and the new year. David Nail looks pretty likely to go, and then I think there's a good chance that RaeLynn and Dan + Shay will also go recurrent. This of course is in addition to the former #1 hits from Maddie & Tae and Keith Urban.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 20, 2014 13:50:47 GMT -5
I'm expecting there to be a mini 'housecleaning' this week, just in time for Christmas and the new year. David Nail looks pretty likely to go, and then I think there's a good chance that RaeLynn and Dan + Shay will also go recurrent. This of course is in addition to the former #1 hits from Maddie & Tae and Keith Urban. Jerrod should go recurrent as well as his song appears done. RaeLynn I agree since she lost another 300k in audience today and even though none of the days saw the bottom drop out on her, it's still too much audience to justify her sticking there. But I don't know about Dan + Shay. They did lose audience this past Billboard chart week but they have been able to cling to life today as they gained 200k in audience bringing their losses this week at just over 100k. There's still two more days to go though so we'll see. All of these songs to me are just about finished though.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Dec 20, 2014 13:51:24 GMT -5
I'm expecting there to be a mini 'housecleaning' this week, just in time for Christmas and the new year. David Nail looks pretty likely to go, and then I think there's a good chance that RaeLynn and Dan + Shay will also go recurrent. This of course is in addition to the former #1 hits from Maddie & Tae and Keith Urban. Jerrod Niemann also looks about done, and Kristian Bush is teetering. I doubt that they'll all leave as I think Billboard might give everybody a grace week due to the close proximity to Christmas. Maybe not but it could happen. They're all going to rebullet enough for re-entry in two weeks anyway.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Dec 20, 2014 14:56:19 GMT -5
I'm expecting there to be a mini 'housecleaning' this week, just in time for Christmas and the new year. David Nail looks pretty likely to go, and then I think there's a good chance that RaeLynn and Dan + Shay will also go recurrent. This of course is in addition to the former #1 hits from Maddie & Tae and Keith Urban. Jerrod Niemann also looks about done, and Kristian Bush is teetering. I doubt that they'll all leave as I think Billboard might give everybody a grace week due to the close proximity to Christmas. Maybe not but it could happen. They're all going to rebullet enough for re-entry in two weeks anyway. I'm hoping that if they're pulled this week, Billboard won't waste their time with re-entering them in a couple of weeks. I agree about Jerrod Niemann - I forgot about him in my initial post. And sabre14 I think Dan + Shay have to gain this week, since they lost AI last week.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 20, 2014 14:58:41 GMT -5
Jerrod Niemann also looks about done, and Kristian Bush is teetering. I doubt that they'll all leave as I think Billboard might give everybody a grace week due to the close proximity to Christmas. Maybe not but it could happen. They're all going to rebullet enough for re-entry in two weeks anyway. And sabre14 I think Dan + Shay have to gain this week, since they lost AI last week. Yes, but it won't take much to put them in the positive as they are only down 100k in audience on MB this week. If they can have gains the next two days (as small as they might be) they will not go recurrent. Like I said, we'll see how the next two days turn out. I'm not saying they won't but its not a guarantee.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2014 22:44:48 GMT -5
Dan + Shay received a grace week when they were without their bullet on the 12/20 chart (from Monday the 8th), but this week they got their bullet back despite a loss of nearly 300k in audience. So technically they will be eligible for another grace week (since it wouldn't be consecutive with their previous grace week) if their loss is fairly small. So for that reason I think they might stay on, but I'll give them at least a 40% chance to leave. That could change tomorrow.
I'm not nearly as certain about RaeLynn as the rest of y'all are, though. Her losses are very odd--she's lost a good bit of audience, sure, but her bullet is still positive. And it still seems that most of her losses are coming from one of the Mediabase-only Westwood One stations.
As for Keith Urban, he'll stay on if he can stay top 10 in audience and spins. Randy Houser will take Maddie & Tae's top 10 spot, dropping Keith to #10 in audience...which means that KU just has to hold off Chase Bryant, Thomas Rhett, Brett Eldredge, Darius Rucker, and Jason Aldean in audience AND spins. That's going to be close on a few fronts. I need to scrutinize the numbers a bit more to predict whether I think KU will stay on or not.
The only ones I definitely see leaving are Maddie & Tae and Jerrod Niemann. Probably Lucy Hale too.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 20, 2014 23:33:05 GMT -5
^ Agree completely on Dan + Shay but RaeLynn is, like you said, and interesting situation. Her total losses have been so great that if she continues to lose audience til Monday, I just cannot see her sticking. "God Made Girls" was struggling massively before the Westwood One stations starting contributing to its losses on MB this week and she hasn't received a grace week yet on Billboard so I think its possible she can stay but at some point the losses will be so great it can't be ignored. With it being so close to Christmas, perhaps that will be another factor in this case. I'll be anxiously awaiting how much the discrepancy is between the MB losses and Billboard losses.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Dec 21, 2014 10:01:46 GMT -5
I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow, but after today's update, I'm definitely thinking that Dan + Shay will be pulled. Since this will likely be their third week in a row losing audience, plus the received a grace week just two weeks ago, I'd actually be surprised to see them still on the chart. But, this is a weird time of year on the charts, and much stranger things have happened.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2014 23:19:41 GMT -5
The next chart will be dated January 3, 2015! (Just a reminder: no Billboard Country Update tomorrow, but we should be able to view the new chart here sometime on Wednesday morning) There's a bit of uncertainty in my projections this week, mainly since we're approaching Christmas and so it's harder to tell which songs will debut. Also, there will be some close calls as to whether some songs go recurrent or not. I took Keith Urban off since I think he'll fall to #11 or #12 in spins, even though he's still projecting to land at #9 in audience. Normally I would think RaeLynn would go recurrent, as she's lost more than enough (she's down about 1.8 million since Monday), but I think most of that loss is a result of her falling out of the top 50 at one of the Westwood One satellite (and Mediabase-only) stations...and with "God Made Girls" not in W1's top 50, I can't track how much airplay it's lost since the start of the week like I normally would be able to Maddie & Tae will definitely go recurrent. David Nail is down about 1 million since Monday, so I think he'll probably go recurrent too. Dan + Shay is harder to figure out, especially because they'll likely set a new peak (possibly top 20) if they stay on, and their loss is pretty small. So for that reason alone, I left Dan + Shay on, even though I'm about 50-50 on whether they'll leave or not. I think it's 60% likely that Lucy Hale goes recurrent (she needs to re-bullet or she's done), and I think it's 80% likely that Jerrod Niemann will go recurrent. Kristian Bush, Kelsea Ballerini, and Gloriana have all taken big hits in audience as well (especially the latter two). Kristian's song is old enough that it could go recurrent, but I expect him to post a spins gain and therefore keep his bullet (even though he'll probably have a small audience loss for the week). Kelsea and Gloriana appear to have been affected in a similar way to RaeLynn's song, plus they also lost a decent amount of airplay from the Cumulus block. These songs should rebound after the New Year. Anyway, here we go! My top 60 projections for the 01/03/15 Billboard chart: 01) Tim McGraw – “Shotgun Rider” (47.130) 02) Brad Paisley – “Perfect Storm” (46.010) 03) Kenny Chesney – “Til It’s Gone” (42.970) 04) Carrie Underwood – “Something In The Water” (40.500) 05) Eric Church – “Talladega” (39.890) 06) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (38.700) 07) Florida Georgia Line – “Sun Daze” (34.150) 08) Luke Bryan – “I See You” (32.130) 09) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (28.310) 10) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (25.390) 11-12) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (24.840) 11-12) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (24.840) 13-14) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (24.110) 13-14) Jason Aldean – “Just Gettin’ Started” (23.750) 15) Blake Shelton f/ Ashley Monroe – “Lonely Tonight” (22.610) 16) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (20.290) 17) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (17.470) 18) RaeLynn – “God Made Girls” (16.610) 19-21) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (14.050) 19-21) Dan + Shay – “Show You Off” (14.050) 19-21) Lady Antebellum – “Freestyle” (13.710) 22) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” (11.720) 23) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (10.360) 24) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (7.830) 25) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (7.490) 26) Toby Keith – “Drunk Americans” (6.870) 27) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (6.410) 28-29) The Band Perry – “Gentle On My Mind” (5.800) 28-29) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (5.720) 30-31) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (5.340) 30-31) Garth Brooks – “Mom” (5.050) 32) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (4.710) 33-35) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (4.440) 33-35) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (4.270) 33-35) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (4.100) 36-37) Gloriana – “Trouble” (3.750) 36-37) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (3.580) 38-39) Montgomery Gentry – “Headlights” (2.950) 38-39) Jon Pardi – “When I’ve Been Drinkin’” (2.870) 40) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (2.420) 41-42) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (2.170) 41-42) Justin Moore – “This Kind Of Town” (2.070) 43-47) The Swon Brothers – “Pray For You” (1.830) 43-47) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (1.710) 43-47) Rodney Atkins – “Eat, Sleep, Love You, Repeat” (1.680) 43-47) Josh Abbott Band – “Hangin’ Around” (1.650) 43-47) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (1.550) 48-49) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (1.400) 48-49) Jackie Lee – “She Does” (1.380) 50) Will Hoge – “Middle Of America” (1.200) 51-52) Sam Hunt – “House Party” 51-52) The Railers – “Kinda Dig The Feeling” 53-54) Chris Lane – “Broken Windshield View” 53-54) Steven Lee Olsen – “Raised By A Good Time” 55-57) Kenny Chesney – “Christmas In Blue Chair Bay” [NEW!]55-57) Josh Dorr – “Save Your Breath” [NEW!]55-57) Katie Armiger – “One Night Between Friends” 58-60) Tyler Farr – “Blue Christmas” [NEW!]58-60) Dylan Scott – “Lay It On Me” [NEW!]58-60) Darius Rucker – “What God Wants For Christmas” [NEW!] Dropping Off:*Keith Urban's "Somewhere In My Car" (27 weeks, 2 weeks at #1) *Maddie & Tae's "Girl In A Country Song" (24 weeks, #1 peak) *David Nail's "Kiss You Tonight" (40 weeks, #18 peak) *Jerrod Niemann's "Buzz Back Girl" (22 weeks, #35 peak) *Lucy Hale's "Lie A Little Better" (16 weeks, #54 peak) Comments:Tim McGraw should claim a 2nd week at #1, with Brad Paisley's bid to take over the top spot falling short. I do think Brad will get the 1/10 and 1/17 charts at #1, however, before Kenny, Carrie, and Eric move in. Parmalee has peaked at #4 and should start to fall pretty quickly, although they won't go recurrent until January of course. Florida Georgia Line and Luke Bryan have both had big weeks and will make more headway into the top 10. Randy Houser will score his 4th consecutive top 10 hit, and his 5th overall. I look for Brett Eldredge to take the #10 spot, coming in just ahead of Thomas Rhett and Chase Bryant. Jason Aldean and Blake Shelton should both surge into the top 15, with Lee Brice up a few spots and Chris Young entering the top 20. Jake Owen should also enter the top 20, and Dan + Shay will probably get into the top 20...unless they go recurrent, that is. As mentioned above, "Show You Off" is a tough one to figure out--I'm torn as to whether it'll go recurrent or not. RaeLynn is perhaps an even tougher one to figure out; her loss is much bigger than Dan + Shay's and even bigger than David Nail's as well, but I decided to leave RaeLynn on (like Dan + Shay, I'm 50-50 on whether she'll go recurrent) since I think a large chunk of her audience loss is from Mediabase-only stations. Cole Swindell and Dierks Bentley continue to do quite well, and Sam Hunt's "Take Your Time" continues its fast start; Sam should easily crack the top 30. Easton Corbin and Eric Paslay also appear set to enter the top 30, while Garth's struggles continue for the 2nd week in a row. Billy Currington and Josh Turner should both jump up several spots this week, and we should see Canaan Smith finally enter the top 40. Montgomery Gentry also appears set to return to the top 40, possibly joined by Jon Pardi and Brantley Gilbert. Dustin Lynch, Justin Moore, The Swon Brothers, Rascal Flatts, Chase Rice, and the Josh Abbott Band should each move up a few spots, but that will mostly be thanks to the new recurrents, as this group of songs continues to post only small-ish gains. Little Big Town's "Girl Crush" will probably jump well into the 40's. For debuts, I'm expecting Josh Dorr to make it on with his debut single "Save Your Breath". I also think we'll see our first couple of Christmas songs make it onto the chart--tunes from Kenny Chesney, Darius Rucker, and Tyler Farr seem to have the best chance, although Jerrod Niemann's rendition of "Holly Jolly Christmas" and Dan + Shay's "Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas" have a decent chance to chart as well. Dylan Scott might also get on the chart, but only because the audience threshold for the top 60 should be lower (and also because of the new recurrents of course). Other possible debuts include Kristy Lee Cook's "Lookin' For A Cowgirl", Olivia Lane's "Steal Me Away", Miranda Lambert's "Little Red Wagon", and a handful of new holiday tunes.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Dec 24, 2014 11:02:43 GMT -5
They left Jerrod Niemann, David Nail, Lucy Hale and Dan + Shay on (RaeLynn too, but she posted a decent gain). So now with the holiday airplay affecting the charts, they'll all take up space for another 2 weeks.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 24, 2014 11:25:08 GMT -5
They left Jerrod Niemann, David Nail, Lucy Hale and Dan + Shay on (RaeLynn too, but she posted a decent gain). So now with the holiday airplay affecting the charts, they'll all take up space for another 2 weeks. Disappointing but not entirely surprising. Not that having an influx of new Christmas songs is needed by me but all of those songs are done with the slight exception to RaeLynn's since I could see that hanging in there for another month or so but even that one is near finished and Valory will probably end the fight there soon.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Dec 24, 2014 11:35:15 GMT -5
They left Jerrod Niemann, David Nail, Lucy Hale and Dan + Shay on (RaeLynn too, but she posted a decent gain). So now with the holiday airplay affecting the charts, they'll all take up space for another 2 weeks. Disappointing but not entirely surprising. Not that having an influx of new Christmas songs is needed by me but all of those songs are done with the slight exception to RaeLynn's since I could see that hanging in there for another month or so but even that one is near finished and Valory will probably end the fight there soon. Yeah, I should've listened to you and jhomes87 but I was really optimistic that most of these would have been pulled. For some reason, I like seeing Christmas songs get their week or two on the charts. Even though I know in the long run it doesn't really matter. At least my favourite new country Christmas song of the year (Kenny's) got on this week.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2014 18:09:32 GMT -5
They left Jerrod Niemann, David Nail, Lucy Hale and Dan + Shay on (RaeLynn too, but she posted a decent gain). So now with the holiday airplay affecting the charts, they'll all take up space for another 2 weeks. Disappointing but not entirely surprising. Not that having an influx of new Christmas songs is needed by me but all of those songs are done with the slight exception to RaeLynn's since I could see that hanging in there for another month or so but even that one is near finished and Valory will probably end the fight there soon. RaeLynn could last for quite a while yet. Like I thought, her Mediabase losses were very misleading (she actually gained more than 500k on Billboard). I just wasn't entirely sure how to translate her MB results to BB, since she fell out of the top 50 on Westwood One so early in the week (which meant I couldn't see how much audience she had there at the beginning of the week and therefore I didn't know how much to subtract from the translation). It appears that she lost all of her spins at W1, and that was probably where 95% of her Mediabase loss came from. So in reality, RaeLynn's week was actually no worse than a lot of others (Jake Owen, The Band Perry, Garth Brooks, etc). It's just normal for a lot of slow-movers to slow down even more at this time of year. The same thing that happened to RaeLynn happened to Kristian Bush, Kelsea Ballerini, and Gloriana as well, as they each lost about 1.5 mil on MB too (a little less for Kristian), but posted gains on BB; Kelsea gained 186k and Gloriana gained 131k, while Kristian actually gained a whopping 1.1 million. So I actually think that RaeLynn still has a good chance to hang around long enough to challenge for the top 10 in a couple months. The good news is that I do still expect to see a housecleaning right away in the New Year. I am quite certain that Parmalee, David Nail, Dan + Shay, Jerrod Niemann, and Lucy Hale will all be leaving almost immediately come January. I don't think any of them will be capable of gaining audience again after the New Year. And there are others too that are either wasting space or probably won't do much: The Railers, Steven Lee Olsen, Chris Lane, Jackie Lee, Josh Abbott Band, The Swon Brothers...I don't think these songs will disappear right away (well, maybe The Railers), but I don't see them lasting very long into 2015 either. Rodney Atkins, Jon Pardi, Montgomery Gentry, and Canaan Smith are other possibilities to leave the chart fairly early in the new year.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2015 21:51:04 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 projections for the 1/31 Billboard chart (which should come out either tomorrow evening or Tuesday evening):
01) Kenny Chesney – “Til It’s Gone” (48.920) 02) Eric Church – “Talladega” (47.330) 03) Luke Bryan – “I See You” (46.020) 04) Carrie Underwood – “Something In The Water” (44.630) 05) Florida Georgia Line – “Sun Daze” (40.800) 06) Brad Paisley – “Perfect Storm” (36.230) [last week] 07) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (35.260) 08) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (33.780) 09-10) Jason Aldean – “Just Gettin’ Started” (32.450) 09-10) Blake Shelton f/ Ashley Monroe – “Lonely Tonight” (32.280) 11) Tim McGraw – “Shotgun Rider” (31.320) [last week] 12) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (30.560) 13) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (29.360) 14) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (27.920) 15) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (26.190) 16) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (24.530) 17) RaeLynn – “God Made Girls” (20.110) [last week?] 18) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” (19.300) 19-20) David Nail – “Kiss You Tonight” (18.430) [last week?] 19-20) Lady Antebellum – “Freestyle” (18.190) 21) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (17.020) 22) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (15.910) 23-24) Zac Brown Band – “Homegrown” (11.830) [NEW!] 23-24) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (11.620) 25) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (10.890) 26) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (10.770) 27) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (8.760) 28) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (8.300) 29-30) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (7.710) 29-30) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (7.620) 31) Toby Keith – “Drunk Americans” (7.130) 32-38) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (5.720) 32-38) Gloriana – “Trouble” (5.680) 32-38) The Band Perry – “Gentle On My Mind” (5.670) [last week?] 32-38) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (5.560) 32-38) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (5.420) 32-38) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (5.360) 32-38) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (5.350) 39) Miranda Lambert – “Little Red Wagon” (4.970) 40) Garth Brooks – “Mom” (4.660) 41-42) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (3.990) 41-42) Jon Pardi – “When I’ve Been Drinkin’” (3.840) 43) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (3.320) 44) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (3.070) 45-46) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (2.900) 45-46) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (2.820) 47) Justin Moore – “This Kind Of Town” (2.650) 48-49) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (2.190) 48-49) The Swon Brothers – “Pray For You” (2.190) 50) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (1.750) 51-52) Jackie Lee – “She Does” 51-52) Rodney Atkins – “Eat, Sleep, Love You, Repeat” 53-54) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” [NEW!] 53-54) Josh Abbott Band – “Hangin’ Around” [last week] 55) Will Hoge – “Middle Of America” 56-59) Josh Dorr – “Save Your Breath” 56-59) Sam Hunt – “House Party” 56-59) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” [NEW!] 56-59) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” [NEW!] 60) The Railers – “Kinda Dig The Feeling” [last week]
Dropping Off:
*Parmalee - "Close Your Eyes" (49 weeks, #4 peak) *Montgomery Gentry - "Headlights" (21 weeks, #40 peak) *Steven Lee Olsen - "Raised By A Good Time" *Old Dominion - "Shut Me Up" (2 weeks, #58 peak)
Comments:
Kenny Chesney should easily score his 24th #1 with "Til It's Gone". Eric Church will move up to #2, with Luke Bryan leaping over Carrie Underwood to take the #3 spot. FGL's "Sun Daze" will enter the top 5. Both Jason Aldean and Blake Shelton should enter the top 10.
Lee Brice and Chris Young are starting to close in a bit on Darius Rucker. There's a decent chance that RaeLynn and/or David Nail could go recurrent (probably 40% for RaeLynn, 45% chance for David), but I couldn't quite justify pulling either of them. Look for Cole Swindell to leapfrog Lady Antebellum and jump into the top 20 with ease. Jake Owen and Dierks Bentley, meanwhile, continue to sit just outside of the top 20, despite another strong week for Dierks (and a decent week for Jake). Both of them should make it into the top 20 next week, though.
Zac Brown Band's new single "Homegrown" is set for a very high debut, likely at #23, although they would be held to #24 if Kristian Bush manages to stay just ahead. Sam Hunt continues to move along nicely, and new group A Thousand Horses should blast into the top 30 thanks to their selection as the new iHeartRadio "On The Verge" artist. I've got "Smoke" projected to land at #27, which would be a 21 spot jump from last week.
Veterans Toby Keith and Garth Brooks continue to struggle, and it doesn't seem that either of them will get any higher than where they currently are. Toby has gotten as high as #27, and Garth has gotten as high as #32. Josh Turner and Gloriana have had slow weeks, while Kelsea Ballerini, Joe Nichols, and Canaan Smith have each done a little bit better. The result looks like it'll be about 7 songs all within 400k or less of each other (in the 32-38 positions).
Miranda Lambert should move into the top 40, and both Frankie Ballard and Mickey Guyton should pick up several spots each. Most of the other artists outside of the top 40 continue to struggle, though, including Dustin Lynch, Brantley Gilbert, Justin Moore, The Swon Brothers, Chase Rice, Jackie Lee, Rodney Atkins, and Josh Dorr. Either Steven Lee Olsen or The Railers will likely get pushed out of the top 60 in order to make room for debuts from Keith Urban and Eric Church's "Raise 'Em Up" as well as likely debuts for duos Big & Rich and Maddie & Tae.
Both The Band Perry and the Josh Abbott Band look likely to be bullet-less for the 2nd week in a row, so I'm thinking that it will be the last chart appearance for those songs. The Railers and Steven Lee Olsen might be able to score a couple more weeks in the top 60 but it doesn't look like either of those songs will do much more than what they already have.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2015 21:07:14 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart (issue dated 02/07). Projected audience totals are included in parentheses! Enjoy :)
01) Eric Church – “Talladega” (49.810) 02) Luke Bryan – “I See You” (48.830) 03) Carrie Underwood – “Something In The Water” (46.410) 04) Florida Georgia Line – “Sun Daze” (42.910) 05) Kenny Chesney – “Til It’s Gone” (41.580) 06-07) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (38.250) 06-07) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (38.080) 08) Blake Shelton f/ Ashley Monroe – “Lonely Tonight” (35.670) 09) Jason Aldean – “Just Gettin’ Started” (33.810) 10) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (31.720) 11) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (30.380) 12) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (28.630) 13) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (27.610) 14) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (26.950) 15) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” (20.690) 16) Lady Antebellum – “Freestyle” (18.810) 17) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (18.050) 18) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (16.350) 19) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (13.520) 20) Zac Brown Band – “Homegrown” (13.090) 21-22) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (12.470) 21-22) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (12.430) 23) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (11.530) 24-25) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (8.450) 24-25) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (8.420) 26-27) Miranda Lambert – “Little Red Wagon” (7.720) 26-27) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (7.560) 28) Toby Keith – “Drunk Americans” (7.280) 29-33) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (6.070) 29-33) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (5.940) 29-33) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (5.760) 29-33) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (5.720) 29-33) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (5.720) 34) Gloriana – “Trouble” (5.180) 35) Garth Brooks – “Mom” (4.710) 36) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (4.020) 37-39) Jon Pardi – “When I’ve Been Drinkin’” (3.840) 37-39) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (3.750) 37-39) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (3.680) 40) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (3.480) 41) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (3.130) 42-43) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (3.000) 42-43) Justin Moore – “This Kind Of Town” (2.820) 44) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (2.460) 45) The Swon Brothers – “Pray For You” (2.260) 46-48) Rodney Atkins – “Eat, Sleep, Love You, Repeat” (1.720) 46-48) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (1.710) 46-48) Jackie Lee – “She Does” (1.570) 49-50) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (1.100) [NEW!] 49-50) Will Hoge – “Middle Of America” (1.050) 51-54) Josh Dorr – “Save Your Breath” 51-54) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” 51-54) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” [NEW!] 51-54) Sam Hunt – “House Party” 55-59) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings And Old Barstools” [NEW!] 55-59) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” 55-59) Steven Lee Olsen – “Raised By A Good Time” 55-59) Haley & Michaels – “Just Another Love Song” [RE-ENTRY] 55-59) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” [NEW!] 60) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” [NEW!]
Bubbling Under:
...Mo Pitney – “Country” ...Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” ...Craig Wayne Boyd – “My Baby’s Got A Smile On Her Face” ...Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” ...Katie Armiger – “One Night Between Friends” ...Kristy Lee Cook – “Lookin’ For A Cowgirl” ...Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine”
Going Recurrent:
* Tim McGraw - "Shotgun Rider" (#1 peak for 3 weeks, charted for 20 weeks) * Brad Paisley - "Perfect Storm" (#1 peak for 2 weeks, charted for 21 weeks) * David Nail - "Kiss You Tonight" (#17 peak, charted for 45 weeks) * The Band Perry - "Gentle On My Mind" (#29 peak, charted for 16 weeks) * Montgomery Gentry - "Headlights" (#40 peak, charted for 22 weeks) * Josh Abbott Band - "Hangin' Around" (#47 peak, charted for 15 weeks)
Notes:
- "Talladega" will become Eric Church's 5th #1 (his 4th as a solo artist). Luke Bryan's "I See You" should move up to #2, and it looks like Carrie's "Something In The Water" will peak at #3.
- Thomas Rhett and Blake Shelton have had nice weeks. Jason Aldean has slowed down a bit. Brett Eldredge will re-enter the top 10, and both Chris Young and Cole Swindell should enter the top 15.
- I'm only giving RaeLynn a 40% chance to re-enter the chart. She is up in spins, but once again, virtually 100% of her net audience gain on Mediabase this week has come from one of the Westwood One satellite stations, which doesn't report to Billboard. Thus, I'm expecting "God Made Girls" to be almost completely flat on Billboard for the week (anywhere from +100k to -100k), and I don't think that'll be enough to convince them to re-enter that one. But I'll give her a 40% chance of getting back on, and we'll just have to wait and see.
- I'm about 65% sure that David Nail will leave. He's down about 250k in the last 6 days on MB, but I think his loss would be closer to 400k or 500k if it weren't for the 2-3 spins he's gained on Westwood One. And thus, I expect his Billboard loss will be closer to 500k, give or take a bit, which, coupled with a loss of -100 spins (or thereabouts) will probably be enough for BB to send him recurrent. But again, like with RaeLynn, I'm not entirely sure on this one either.
- Dierks Bentley will move into the top 20, and I expect Sam Hunt to go top 20 as well (I've got Sam pulling off an impressive 25-19 move). Also, assuming RaeLynn stays off and David goes recurrent, ZBB's "Homegrown" should have a good chance of cracking the top 20 as well.
- A Thousand Horses' "Smoke", the current OTV selection, should move up a few more spots. It's not even in the top 1200 on iTunes. The only other songs in the Mediabase top 50 that aren't top 1200 on iTunes are Gloriana's "Trouble", The Swon Brothers' "Pray For You", Frankie Ballard's "Young & Crazy", and Justin Moore's "This Kind Of Town". Hmmm...
- Eric Paslay and Easton Corbin are both set to move up a few spots. Toby Keith, on the other hand, is still not really doing much other than spinning his tires.
- Miranda Lambert's "Little Red Wagon" has had a big week and should easily jump into the top 30. I also think Little Big Town will enter the top 30, although it's gonna be a closer call with them, as they've moved into that closely-packed group containing Joe Nichols, Canaan Smith, Josh Turner, and Kelsea Ballerini. I've been waiting to see which of these songs will start to separate themselves from the pack, but they've stayed pretty close to each other again this week. Josh and Canaan seem to have a decent amount of upside/potential, and even Kelsea is looking pretty good; she'll definitely go at least top 30 at some point, which is a pretty good accomplishment for Black River Entertainment. As for Joe Nichols, it'll all depend on how much longer Stoney Creek decides to stick with "Hard To Be Cool".
- Both Garth and Gloriana are down a little bit this week. "Mom" continues to look like it won't even make the top 30.
- Rascal Flatts and Jon Pardi have had slower weeks, but both of them should move up a few spots anyway.
- I've got "Raise 'Em Up" projected to pass up 9 songs (not including recurrents), so I think it's got a pretty good chance of going top 40, with an outside chance of getting as high as #38 or even #37 if it can sneak past Frankie and/or Jon.
- Brantley Gilbert has had a better week but I think he'll fall just short of the top 40. Dustin Lynch has also picked up the pace a little bit, whereas Reba's "Going Out Like That" has seen a slight decrease in audience. I've only got Reba moving up to #43 or #42. So far about 90-95% of her support is coming purely from Cumulus stations, and there's only so many spins those stations can give her, so sooner or later she'll have to pick up some adds at other stations otherwise she'll wind up stalling out.
- Mickey Guyton has had a pretty good week so she should move up a few more spots as well, passing The Swon Brothers in the process.
- I'm expecting Kip Moore to be the Hot Shot Debut; I've got him coming in as high as #50 or even #49, somewhere in Will Hoge's neighborhood. Speaking of Will, if these projections hold up, this would mark his first top 50 appearance with "Middle Of America" (and his 2nd top 50 overall, as "Strong" peaked at #41).
- Debuts: In addition to the aforementioned Kip Moore, I expect to see Maddie & Tae pick up a nice debut with "Fly". Tim's new single should get in as well, Haley & Michaels has a good chance to re-enter, and it looks like Michael Ray could debut a few weeks early (adds date isn't until 2/16 for him). I went with Kenny's "Wild Child" sneaking in at #60, just ahead of Mo Pitney and Brad Paisley. Lots of songs within close proximity down there though, so I wouldn't be surprised if either Mo or Brad (or both) manage to debut in place of 1-2 other songs. In any case, Mo is getting some pretty good early airplay, considering that we're still 2 weeks away from adds date (February 9) for him.
- Let's just get this out of the way: Austin Webb and Steven Lee Olsen aren't going anywhere. Josh Dorr might make the top 50, but I don't think he's gonna do much either.
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bigfan101
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I am Sara Evans other fan.
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Post by bigfan101 on Jan 25, 2015 21:39:01 GMT -5
Glad we got these two weeks in a row...stellar information as always!
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jan 25, 2015 22:13:29 GMT -5
Good job once again jhomes87. Just have one question though: are you sure about Smoke's sales on iTunes? It's currently at #50 on iTunes Country Genre chart, and I would think that would translate to the top 1200 on iTunes, as the the #30 song on iTunes Country chart is in the top 200 all genre.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2015 22:21:03 GMT -5
Good job once again jhomes87. Just have one question though: are you sure about Smoke's sales on iTunes? It's currently at #50 on iTunes Country Genre chart, and I would think that would translate to the top 1200 on iTunes, as the the #30 song on iTunes Country chart is in the top 200 all genre. I think I know where jhomes got the numbers from (as it's still showing incorrectly), but I'm guessing Smoke right now is around 260 on iTunes, all-genre.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2015 22:39:11 GMT -5
Good job once again jhomes87. Just have one question though: are you sure about Smoke's sales on iTunes? It's currently at #50 on iTunes Country Genre chart, and I would think that would translate to the top 1200 on iTunes, as the the #30 song on iTunes Country chart is in the top 200 all genre. Yep, I used Kworb's site...I thought it was awfully low on there but that's my bad for not actually pulling up iTunes and checking. It must be a different song that is somehow being confused for "Smoke" on Kworb's site.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jan 25, 2015 23:01:38 GMT -5
^They could be confusing it with Fla Ga Line's Smoke, just a possibility.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2015 23:50:28 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart! :)
01) Luke Bryan – “I See You” (50.320) 02) Eric Church – “Talladega” (48.490) 03) Florida Georgia Line – “Sun Daze” (44.280) 04) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (42.390) 05-06) Blake Shelton f/ Ashley Monroe – “Lonely Tonight” (39.970) 05-06) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (39.850) 07) Jason Aldean – “Just Gettin’ Started” (36.450) 08) Carrie Underwood – “Something In The Water” (34.900) 09) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (33.660) 10) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (30.590) 11-12) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (28.810) 11-12) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (28.780) 13-14) Kenny Chesney – “Til It’s Gone” (28.310) [last week] 13-14) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (28.120) 15) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” (25.000) 16-17) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (19.990) 16-17) Lady Antebellum – “Freestyle” (19.850) 18-19) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (19.140) 18-19) Zac Brown Band – “Homegrown” (18.990) 20) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (15.740) 21-22) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (14.220) 21-22) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (14.160) 23) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (12.770) 24) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (9.920) 25-26) Miranda Lambert – “Little Red Wagon” (9.350) 25-26) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (9.150) 27) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (8.520) 28) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (8.130) 29) Toby Keith – “Drunk Americans” (7.050) 30) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (6.770) 31-35) Gloriana – “Trouble” (6.390) 31-35) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (6.250) 31-35) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (6.230) 31-35) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (6.100) 31-35) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (5.960) 36) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (4.610) 37-38) Jon Pardi – “When I’ve Been Drinkin’” (4.350) 37-38) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (4.320) 39-40) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (3.920) 39-40) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (3.860) 41-42) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (3.590) 41-42) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (3.350) 43-45) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (3.200) 43-45) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (3.080) 43-45) Justin Moore – “This Kind Of Town” (2.940) 46-49) The Swon Brothers – “Pray For You” (2.240) 46-49) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (2.220) 46-49) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (2.100) 46-49) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (2.000) 50-53) Rodney Atkins – “Eat, Sleep, Love You, Repeat” (1.600) 50-53) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” 50-53) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” 50-53) Jackie Lee – “She Does” [last week?] 54-55) Josh Dorr – “Save Your Breath” 54-55) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” [NEW!] 56-58) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” 56-58) Haley & Michaels – “Just Another Love Song” 56-58) Steven Lee Olsen – “Raised By A Good Time” 59) Mo Pitney – “Country” [NEW!] 60) Craig Wayne Boyd – “My Baby’s Got A Smile On Her Face” [NEW!]
Bubbling Under:
...Lee Ann Womack - "Send It On Down" ...Old Dominion - "Break Up With Him" ...Parmalee - "Already Callin' You Mine" ...Michael Ray - "Kiss You In The Morning"
Going Recurrent:
* RaeLynn - "God Made Girls" (29 weeks, #16 peak) * Garth Brooks - "Mom" (10 weeks, #32 peak) * Sam Hunt - "House Party" (should fall out of top 60, would be eligible to re-enter at a later date)
Comments:
Lots of close battles this week! However, the top part of the chart isn't a mystery, as Luke Bryan should easily take over the #1 spot, and we'll likely see him surpass 50 million as well. Florida Georgia Line should move up to #3, with Thomas Rhett up to #4 and a near photo-finish between Blake and Randy for the #5 spot. Chase Bryant will take his debut single into the top 10, although it looks like that one might be running out of steam. Also closing in on the top 10 are Darius Rucker, Chris Young, and Lee Brice, with Chris' "Lonely Eyes" looking the best out of that trio right now, in terms of overall momentum.
Lady A continues to move very slowly--I maintain my belief that they might struggle to get any higher than their current #17 peak. They could make it up to #16 tomorrow, but only if they can hold off Jake Owen, and right now it's looking like Jake might edge ahead of them. Dierks Bentley is also closing in on Lady A, and of course there's the red hot ZBB single "Homegrown" that should blow on past "Freestyle" this coming week.
Tyler Farr and Kristian Bush continue to push slowly toward the top 20. Eric Paslay has had a pretty good week, while Toby Keith continues to go nowhere. Look for Keith and Eric's "Raise 'Em Up" to blast into the top 30. Joe Nichols has rebounded a bit this week which might also be enough to get him into the top 30, but he'll need RaeLynn to go recurrent (again). For the record, I'm only giving RaeLynn about a 35-40% chance of staying on the chart (via a grace week). I also took Garth off, although I'll say there's about a 45% chance he can eek out a bullet and live to fight for a few more chart weeks.
Gloriana and Josh Turner have had slightly better weeks this week, but the "pack" is still in place, with all of those artists (Gloriana, Josh, Canaan, Kelsea, and LBT) jostling for position and trying to fit into the top 30. Tim McGraw should jump into the top 40, and Dustin Lynch might also sneak into the top 40 as well.
Frankie Ballard has hit a bump in the road, Reba continues to inch along, and both Brantley Gilbert and Justin Moore continue to move very slowly. Brad Paisley should jump up a bunch more spots, and Mickey Guyton should also take a few more steps toward the top 40. I expect Kenny Chesney to move into the top 50, and it looks like Kip Moore, Maddie & Tae, and Big & Rich have all had pretty good weeks.
For debuts, it looks like we'll see Florida Georgia Line's "Sippin' On Fire" and possibly Mo Pitney's "Country" and Craig Wayne Boyd's super-long-titled song, although there's much less certainty down near the very bottom of the chart. Josh Dorr, Austin Webb, Haley & Michaels, and Steven Lee Olsen aren't really doing much, so we'll have to see if they can hang onto their spots in the top 60. Other possibilities for debuts include Lee Ann Womack, Old Dominion, and Parmalee.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2015 0:58:13 GMT -5
Kinda late tonight, but, oh well! Here are my top 60 projections for tomorrow's Billboard Country Airplay chart. Enjoy! 01) Luke Bryan – “I See You” (49.200) 02) Florida Georgia Line – “Sun Daze” (43.710) 03) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (42.910) 04) Blake Shelton f/ Ashley Monroe – “Lonely Tonight” (41.140) 05) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (39.280) 06) Jason Aldean – “Just Gettin’ Started” (38.410) 07) Eric Church – “Talladega” (37.010) [last week]08) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (35.550) 09) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (30.310) 10-11) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (29.690) 10-11) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (29.310) 12) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (28.860) 13) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” (27.220) 14) Zac Brown Band – “Homegrown” (22.570) 15) Carrie Underwood – “Something In The Water” (21.760) [last week]16-18) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (20.090) 16-18) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (20.020) 16-18) Lady Antebellum – “Freestyle” (19.690) 19) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (18.700) 20) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (14.760) 21) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (14.050) 22) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (12.900) 23-25) Miranda Lambert – “Little Red Wagon” (11.050) 23-25) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (10.910) 23-25) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (10.750) 26-27) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (9.260) 26-27) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (9.230) 28) Toby Keith – “Drunk Americans” (7.410) 29) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (7.050) 30-32) Gloriana – “Trouble” (6.660) 30-32) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (6.380) 30-32) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (6.370) 33-35) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (6.000) 33-35) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (6.000) 33-35) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (5.980) 36) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (5.000) 37) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (4.650) 38-39) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (4.300) 38-39) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (4.200) 40-41) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (3.880) 40-41) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (3.850) 42-44) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (3.770) 42-44) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (3.650) 42-44) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (3.590) 45) Jon Pardi – “When I’ve Been Drinkin’” (3.360) [last week?]46) Justin Moore – “This Kind Of Town” (2.850) 47-49) The Swon Brothers – “Pray For You” (2.350) 47-49) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (2.300) 47-49) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (2.170) 50-53) Rodney Atkins – “Eat, Sleep, Love You, Repeat” (1.550) 50-53) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” 50-53) Jackie Lee – “She Does” 50-53) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” [NEW!]54-55) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” [NEW!]54-55) Josh Dorr – “Save Your Breath” 56-57) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” 56-57) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” 58) Mo Pitney – “Country” 59-60) Haley & Michaels – “Just Another Love Song” 59-60) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” Bubbling Under:...Steven Lee Olsen - "Raised By A Good Time" ...Michael Ray - "Kiss You In The Morning" ...Craig Wayne Boyd - "My Baby's Got A Smile On Her Face" ...Kristy Lee Cook - "Lookin' For A Cowgirl" Going Recurrent:* Kenny Chesney's "Til It's Gone" (19 chart weeks, #1 peak) Comments:Luke Bryan will spend a 2nd week at #1, with FGL moving up to #2, Thomas Rhett to #3, and Blake and Ashley climbing up to #4. At #5, Randy Houser's "Like A Cowboy" is starting to finally show some signs of fatigue. Jason Aldean and Brett Eldredge have had big weeks, while Chase Bryant continues to move more slowly. Darius Rucker should climb into the top 10, although there's a chance that Chris Young could sneak in ahead of him. Cole Swindell continues to do very well, and ZBB's "Homegrown" is on fire; it should jump up a bunch more spots this week. Lady A continues to really struggle...there's a pretty good chance we'll see "Freestyle" get leapfrogged by both Dierks Bentley and Jake Owen. Sam Hunt has had another big week as he closes in on the top 15, and it looks like we'll see Tyler Farr finally enter the top 20. "Raise 'Em Up" continues to climb quickly, while Easton Corbin and Toby Keith continue to move slowly. Gloriana has the edge to enter the top 30, although Josh Turner and Kelsea Ballerini are nipping on their heels. Tim McGraw and especially Kenny Chesney have had strong weeks, with both stars and their featured vocalists likely to enter the top 30 next week. Little Big Town has rebounded ever so slightly, and Canaan Smith continues to crawl along slowly. Reba looks likely to jump into the top 40 this week, and if she does, it will be her 88th top 40 hit. Brad Paisley and Brantley Gilbert should be right there on the cusp of the top 40, with Mickey Guyton also closing in, while Frankie Ballard and especially Jon Pardi get pushed back. Justin Moore, The Swon Brothers, Chase Rice, Rodney Atkins, and Jackie Lee continue to move very slowly. Big & Rich might be able to challenge for a top 50 spot, and we could also see Carrie Underwood's "Little Toy Guns" challenge for a top 50 spot in her debut week. Besides Carrie, the only other expected debut is Parmalee's "Already Callin' You Mine". Finally, I'm about 50-50 as to whether Garth Brooks' "Mom" will re-enter, but if it does, it'll probably be somewhere in the Rascal Flatts/Reba neighborhood.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2015 19:08:42 GMT -5
Billboard didn't make any mention on Monday of the chart being delayed because of Presidents Day, but I do expect it will be. Last year it came out on Tuesday, and Country Aircheck has already announced that the published Mediabase chart in Aircheck Weekly won't be out 'til Tuesday evening. So I am expecting we'll have to wait 'til Tuesday evening for the 2/28 Billboard chart as well.
Anyway, here are my top 60 projections for the 2/28 Billboard Country Airplay chart. Enjoy! :)
01) Florida Georgia Line – “Sun Daze” (45.030) 02) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (43.580) 03-04) Luke Bryan – “I See You” (41.500) 03-04) Blake Shelton f/ Ashley Monroe – “Lonely Tonight” (41.200) 05) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (39.050) 06) Jason Aldean – “Just Gettin’ Started” (37.980) 07) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (36.500) 08-09) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (30.500) 08-09) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (30.410) 10) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (29.460) [last week?] 11-12) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” (28.810) 11-12) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (28.790) 13) Zac Brown Band – “Homegrown” (25.450) 14) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (22.590) 15) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (21.650) 16) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (19.680) [last week?] 17) Lady Antebellum – “Freestyle” (18.200) 18) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (16.720) 19) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (14.630) 20) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (13.720) 21) Kristian Bush – “Trailer Hitch” (12.860) 22-23) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (12.180) 22-23) Miranda Lambert – “Little Red Wagon” (11.880) 24) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (10.160) 25) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (9.330) 26-27) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (7.910) 26-27) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (7.740) 28) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (7.280) 29-30) Toby Keith – “Drunk Americans” (6.700) 29-30) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (6.620) 31-32) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (6.440) 31-32) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (6.440) 33) Gloriana – “Trouble” (5.840) 34) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (5.420) 35) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (5.120) 36) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (4.800) 37-39) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (4.450) 37-39) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (4.450) 37-39) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (4.250) 40) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (4.080) 41-42) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (3.760) 41-42) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (3.750) 43) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (2.900) 44-46) Justin Moore – “This Kind Of Town” (2.570) [last week?] 44-46) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (2.490) 44-46) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (2.390) 47-48) The Swon Brothers – “Pray For You” (2.060) 47-48) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (1.960) 49) Rodney Atkins – “Eat, Sleep, Love You, Repeat” (1.500) 50-53) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (1.000) 50-53) Mo Pitney – “Country” 50-53) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” 50-53) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” [NEW!] 54) Josh Dorr – “Save Your Breath” 55-56) Sam Hunt – “House Party” 55-56) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” 57-59) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” 57-59) Haley & Michaels – “Just Another Love Song” 57-59) Craig Wayne Boyd – “My Baby’s Got A Smile On Her Face” [NEW!] 60) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” [NEW!]
Going Recurrent:
* Eric Church's "Talladega" (21 weeks, #1 peak) * Carrie Underwood's "Something In The Water" (19 weeks, #3 peak) * Jon Pardi's "When I've Been Drinkin'" (20 weeks, #38 peak)
Comments:
Florida Georgia Line's "Sun Daze" is set to become their 6th #1 hit, although it'll probably have one of the lowest #1 audience totals we've seen over the last year or so. Thomas Rhett should move up to #2 and appears poised to follow FGL at the top spot. Randy Houser will likely hold at #5, but it appears that that one is all but done. Jason Aldean has slammed on the brakes this week, most likely as Broken Bow tries to figure out if they can get Houser's song higher up the charts or if they should drop it. Brett Eldredge continues to do fairly well, and Chris Young has had a nice week that should see him jump into the top 10 as he continues to move up neck and neck with Darius Rucker. Chase Bryant, on the other hand, looks like he's all but done, very similar to label-mate Randy Houser.
Cole Swindell continues to move up strongly, and Zac Brown Band has also had another great week. Sam Hunt has had the biggest week of all though, and I look for him to jump up 5 spots and be the greatest gainer as well. Dierks Bentley has had a pretty good week; he should easily jump ahead of Jake Owen and enter the top 15. Speaking of Jake, his song is another one that might be about done. Lady A's "Freestyle" also appears done, although it should get 2 more chart appearances yet (including the 2/28 chart). Tyler Farr has had a nice week, and new group A Thousand Horses will take rookie single "Smoke" into the top 20 this week. I also look for Keith's "Raise 'Em Up" to climb several more spots and crack the top 20.
Kristian Bush continues to idle slowly toward the top 20, but Eric Paslay and Miranda Lambert are closing in. Tim McGraw and Kenny Chesney should both surge into the top 30 (along with their backing vocalists, of course), and Canaan Smith has also had a pretty good week which should see him finally crack the top 30 as a result. Toby Keith continues to struggle; I think "Drunk Americans" has pretty much done all it's gonna do. Josh Turner and Gloriana have both been set back a bit this week, while Kelsea Ballerini has done pretty good as she remains right there on the cusp of the top 30.
Brad Paisley should jump up a few more spots, while Little Big Town continues to really struggle. Rascal Flatts' "Riot" is also pretty stagnant. Brantley Gilbert, on the other hand, has had his best week yet and should surge into the top 40. Dustin Lynch has also had a pretty good week so I look for him to jump back into the top 40. I've got Reba staying right there at #40 as she's been completely flat this week in terms of audience. Carrie Underwood should climb up a bunch more spots, with Maddie & Tae also likely to move up a few spots. Justin Moore and The Swon Brothers continue to really struggle, however.
Michael Ray's debut single "Kiss You In The Morning" will probably be the Hot Shot Debut. I also think we'll see Craig Wayne Boyd's The Voice coronation single finally sneak onto the chart. The last debut will probably be Waterloo Revival's "Hit The Road", although Cam's "My Mistake" could sneak in instead.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Feb 15, 2015 19:16:28 GMT -5
I'm hoping "What We Ain't Got" can get a second wind, but it would also clear up some space if it left. I'm so conflicted as to what I want to happen with that song... :(
If it goes hopefully radio replaces it's "slow ballad" spot with "Girl Crush" that song would probably benefit having one less similar song on the chart.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2015 19:33:14 GMT -5
I'm hoping "What We Ain't Got" can get a second wind, but it would also clear up some space if it left. I'm so conflicted as to what I want to happen with that song... :( If it goes hopefully radio replaces it's "slow ballad" spot with "Girl Crush" that song would probably benefit having one less similar song on the chart. I think whether Jake keeps climbing for another week (or a few weeks) will depend on what Randy Houser and Chase Bryant do. Those are really the only 2 songs ahead of him that might start downward this week (and could go recurrent on Monday the 23rd). And Jake shouldn't have to worry about Tyler Farr or A Thousand Horses for a little while yet, since he's got a decent lead on both of them. "Freestyle" is also probably done so that helps. Also it'll take a couple more weeks for Keith, Miranda, Tim, and Kenny to catch up as well. So I'm thinking that RCA will wait and see how Randy and Chase start the new week. Luke is of course falling but I think he'll get 2 drop weeks and therefore not go recurrent until March 2. If Randy and Chase (or even just one of them) posts a pretty big drop within the next 1-3 days, then I'll bet RCA will keep working "What We Ain't Got" to radio because even just one song going recurrent on the 23rd would likely get Jake into the top 15 ahead of Lady A (I maintain my belief that they've peaked at #16), Tyler Farr, A Thousand Horses, and Keith/Eric. But Jake's song is about 30 weeks old by now and probably a full 10 million out from the top 10 yet. Thus top 15 is probably the best it can achieve so it's up to the label to decide whether it's worth it to keep pushing the song for another 1-3 weeks or so.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Feb 15, 2015 20:06:37 GMT -5
Do you think with to BBLG songs going away we could see a new song from T2 soon?"
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 15, 2015 21:31:07 GMT -5
Do you think with to BBLG songs going away we could see a new song from T2 soon?" I know this is Jamie's thread but hopefully you don't mind me answering. :) They put up on their Facebook page that they were taking pictures for new music so I think a new single announcement will come shortly after CRS. Possibly a April or May add date.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Feb 15, 2015 22:38:58 GMT -5
Do you think with to BBLG songs going away we could see a new song from T2 soon?" I know this is Jamie's thread but hopefully you don't mind me answering. :) They put up on their Facebook page that they were taking pictures for new music so I think a new single announcement will come shortly after CRS. Possibly a April or May add date. So soon, but not ASAP. I'll try to be patient ;)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2015 19:27:48 GMT -5
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard Country Airplay chart. Enjoy! :)
01) Thomas Rhett – “Make Me Wanna” (45.030) 02) Blake Shelton f/ Ashley Monroe – “Lonely Tonight” (42.200) 03) Randy Houser – “Like A Cowboy” (40.810) 04-05) Jason Aldean – “Just Gettin’ Started” (39.560) 04-05) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (39.550) 06) Florida Georgia Line – “Sun Daze” (35.870) [last week] 07) Luke Bryan – “I See You” (35.210) [last week] 08-09) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (32.900) 08-09) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (32.790) 10) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” (31.090) 11) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (29.800) 12) Chase Bryant – “Take It On Back” (29.110) [last week?] 13) Zac Brown Band – “Homegrown” (28.370) 14) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (24.700) 15) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (23.650) 16) Jake Owen – “What We Ain’t Got” (20.320) 17-18) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (17.710) 17-18) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (17.650) 19) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (16.790) 20) Lady Antebellum – “Freestyle” (13.740) [last week] 21-22) Miranda Lambert – “Little Red Wagon” (13.180) 21-22) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (12.800) 23) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (11.070) 24) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (10.020) 25) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (9.510) 26) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (9.040) 27-28) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (7.800) 27-28) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (7.700) 29) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (7.450) 30) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (6.990) 31-32) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (6.650) 31-32) Toby Keith – “Drunk Americans” (6.600) 33) Gloriana – “Trouble” (6.120) 34) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (5.720) 35-36) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (5.420) 35-36) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (5.420) 37-38) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (4.950) 37-38) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (4.940) 39) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (4.650) 40-41) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (4.410) 40-41) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (4.330) 42) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (3.440) 43-44) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (2.800) 43-44) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (2.660) 45-48) The Swon Brothers – “Pray For You” (2.300) 45-48) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (2.170) 45-48) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (2.150) 45-48) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (2.050) 49-50) Rodney Atkins – “Eat, Sleep, Love You, Repeat” (1.880) 49-50) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (1.740) 51-53) Josh Dorr – “Save Your Breath” (1.320) 51-53) Mo Pitney – “Country” (1.250) 51-53) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (1.210) 54) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (0.970) 55-58) Cam – “My Mistake” (0.840) 55-58) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” (0.750) 55-58) Dierks Bentley – “Riser” (0.720) [NEW!] 55-58) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (0.620) [NEW!] 59-60) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (0.510) [NEW!] 59-60) Craig Wayne Boyd – “My Baby’s Got A Smile On Her Face” (0.500) [NEW!]
Bubbling Under:
...Haley & Michaels - "Just Another Love Song" ...LoCash - "I Love This Life" ...Drake White - "It Feels Good" ...Gary Allan - "Hangover Tonight"
Dropping Off:
* Kristian Bush's "Trailer Hitch" (34 weeks, #21 peak) * Justin Moore's "This Kind Of Town" (17 weeks, #44 peak) * Sam Hunt's "House Party" * Haley & Michaels' "Just Another Love Song"
Comments:
Thomas Rhett will easily score his 3rd straight #1 hit, with Blake Shelton and Ashley Monroe moving up to #2 and Randy Houser climbing to #3. Jason Aldean and Brett Eldredge will both enter the top 5, with Brett threatening to leapfrog Jason. Look for Cole Swindell to jump into the top 10, with Chase Bryant getting pushed out and possibly nearing the end of his chart run (maybe a 30% chance he goes recurrent tomorrow, even). His "Take It On Back" reached a peak of #9 a couple weeks back.
Zac Brown Band and Sam Hunt continue to move strongly towards the top 10, with Dierks Bentley also picking up some steam, and Jake Owen continuing to hang in there right on the cusp of the top 15. Keith Urban and Eric Church will blast up a few more spots, while Miranda Lambert has had a bit of a slower week and Lady Antebellum is now in freefall mode. Eric Paslay, Billy Currington, and Easton Corbin continue to move slowly toward the top 20. Canaan Smith is really starting to pick up some steam now; this has been the biggest week yet for "Love You Like That". Kelsea Ballerini also continues to do quite well...she should jump back into the top 30 this week, along with Josh Turner. Meanwhile Toby Keith will probably get pushed out of the top 30 as it looks like "Drunk Americans" has done all it's gonna do.
Kenny, Tim, and Brad have all had decent weeks, but a little bit slower than I expected. Gloriana and Little Big Town continue to really struggle. Carrie Underwood should surge into the top 40, but Reba continues to move very slowly, and it's been a pretty rough week for Mickey Guyton as well. Parmalee should move up a few spots, and Michael Ray continues with his hot start. Look for Florida Georgia Line's latest, "Sippin' On Fire", to cruise into the top 50.
Mo Pitney has had a pretty good week, Old Dominion has had a really good week, and Cam continues to pick up some strong early airplay. I'm expecting we'll see Eric Church's "Like A Wrecking Ball" make its debut, and it also looks like we could see Dierks Bentley's "Riser" make an appearance as well. My guess is that "Riser" is either getting some test spins at a couple of stations, or perhaps there is an acoustic version being spun on some stations. If it's the acoustic version scenario, then "Riser" probably won't chart on Billboard. But, since "Riser" had over 0.660 million on Mediabase through Friday and since I haven't heard anything about an acoustic version of the song at radio, I have to assume that most of its MB audience will translate over to Billboard as well.
Anyway...Dan + Shay's "Nothin' Like You" also has a pretty good chance to debut, and finally we might see Craig Wayne Boyd sneak onto the chart, although he'll have some competition from Haley & Michaels (decreasing in airplay, but might be able to hold on to their top 60 spot) and LoCash.
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