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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Feb 23, 2015 17:31:04 GMT -5
Country Airplay *** No. 1 (1 week)*** "Make Me Wanna" Thomas Rhett Thomas Rhett lands his third Country Airplay No. 1 with "Make Me Wanna." He first led with 2013's "It Goes Like This" and followed with last year's "Get Me Some of That."
Greatest Gainer No. 17 "Raise 'Em Up" Keith Urban Featuring Eric Church Debut No. 55 "Like A Wrecking Ball" Eric Church Debut No. 58 "Riser" Dierks Bentley Debut No. 59 "Nothin' Like You" Dan + Shay
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2015 19:16:31 GMT -5
Not sure if I'm going to keep doing this...I've always enjoyed projections but it's getting harder and harder nowadays because of the big differences between Mediabase and Billboard audience (mostly due to the Westwood One stations), and it took me more time to do this this afternoon than I was expecting. And I could just always predict the Billboard chart by just eyeballing the Mediabase numbers, but I like to see how accurate I can be, and just eyeballing the Mediabase numbers would take all the actual math out of my projections. There have been many weeks lately where I was amazed at how much different the Billboard numbers came out than what I had been expecting, simply because of all the variables I take into account when I run my projections. It seems like there are new variables constantly popping up, and it makes it harder to get a clearer picture of what the Billboard chart will look like.
Basically, the Billboard chart is just harder to "forecast" because of all of this, and therefore it's getting to the point where I'm often quite surprised at how things turn out on Monday evenings. Mediabase might have you thinking that a song will gain 4 million on Billboard, but then it only gains 1.5 million instead (Easton Corbin is an example of that this week).
Anyway...here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart. Enjoy them, because I'm not sure if I'm gonna keep this up!
01) Zac Brown Band – “Homegrown” (43.160) 02-03) Darius Rucker – “Homegrown Honey” (42.420) 02-03) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (42.410) 04) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (41.530) 05) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (37.450) 06) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” (37.040) 07) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (34.810) 08) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (30.640) 09) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (27.570) 10) Brett Eldredge – “Mean To Me” (25.490) [last week] 11) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (23.050) 12) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (22.640) 13) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (20.810) 14) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (19.750) 15-16) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (17.440) 15-16) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (17.320) 17) Miranda Lambert – “Little Red Wagon” (16.660) 18-19) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (15.960) 18-19) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (15.900) 20) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (14.640) 21-22) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (12.550) 21-22) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (12.410) 23) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (10.840) 24) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (10.250) [last week?] 25-26) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (9.350) 25-26) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (9.350) 27) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (8.440) 28) Gloriana – “Trouble” (7.840) 29) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (7.570) 30-32) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (7.070) 30-32) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (7.060) 30-32) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (6.810) 33-34) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (6.300) 33-34) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (6.190) 35) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (5.870) 36-37) Luke Bryan – “Games” (5.210) 36-37) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (5.050) 38) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (4.650) 39-40) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (3.870) 39-40) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (3.740) 41-43) Kacey Musgraves – “Biscuits” (3.210) 41-43) Gary Allan – “Hangover Tonight” (3.190) 41-43) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (3.150) 44-45) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (2.960) 44-45) Eli Young Band – “Turn It On” (2.910) 46-48) Mo Pitney – “Country” (2.650) 46-48) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (2.600) 46-48) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (2.450) 49-50) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (1.900) 49-50) Drake White – “It Feels Good” (1.870) 51-52) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” 51-52) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” 53-55) Cam – “My Mistake” 53-55) Ashley Monroe – “On To Something Good” 53-55) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” 56-57) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” 56-57) LoCash – “I Love This Life” 58) Josh Dorr – “Save Your Breath” [last week?] 59) RaeLynn – “For A Boy” [NEW!] 60) Logan Mize – “Can’t Get Away From A Good Time” [NEW!]
Bubbling Under:
...Aaron Watson - "That Look" ...John King - "On Your Lips" ...Striking Matches - "Hanging On A Lie" ...Brothers Osborne - "Stay A Little Longer" ...Luke Bryan - "Checkin' Out"
Dropping Off:
* Jason Aldean's "Just Gettin' Started" (22 weeks, #1 peak) * Jake Owen's "What We Ain't Got" (35 weeks, #14 peak)
Comments:
As you can see, I've got Zac Brown Band coming in at #1. If Capitol is currently pushing hard (working the phones, doing whatever it is that labels do during these insane pushes), then maybe Darius can make things interesting...but I suspect they'll be content with the Mediabase #1. It's actually quite possible that Darius won't be able to get past Chris Young, meaning that "Homegrown Honey" would be held to a #3 Billboard peak.
Sam Hunt has had a big week and he should come in at #4. He might be able to challenge for #1 next week, but I think ZBB will probably get a 2nd week at #1 on BB (along with the MB #1 a week from today), and Sam will wait to take over the top spot until Monday the 13th. Look for Lee Brice to move up to #5, with Dierks Bentley up to #7 after a big week, and Keith Urban & Eric Church climbing to #8 after a big week for them as well. Tyler Farr will finally crack the top 10 in his 35th chart week.
I've got Brett Eldredge hanging on to the #10 spot--I'm pretty confident he'll remain top 10 in audience, but there is a decent chance he can go recurrent due to the spins clause (any song that's 21+ weeks old that falls out of the top 10 in audience OR spins can go recurrent). As it stands now, I've got Brett projecting to about 4350 spins on Billboard, with Billy Currington coming in around 4150 spins, and A Thousand Horses around 4050 spins. Either Billy or A Thousand Horses would have to finish ahead of Brett in spins to send "Mean To Me" recurrent.
One song I do have going recurrent is Jake Owen's "What We Ain't Got", although I'm only about 55% sure he'll leave. Basically I'm thinking that Billboard just might think that Jake's song has been lingering around a little too long, and since he's been given a couple of grace weeks already (only to rebound a bit the following week), I think this week Billboard might finally say 'enough is enough'. If not--if Jake stays on--then he would probably be at #15, just below Tim McGraw.
Florida Georgia Line has had another big week, and both Easton Corbin and Eric Paslay have done pretty well. Carrie continues to move at a decent clip; her "Little Toy Guns" will crack the top 20 this week, joined by label-mate Brad Paisley and his "Crushin' It" (that's assuming Jake goes recurrent though; if not, then Brad will probably be stuck at #21). Miranda has picked up the pace a little bit this week, although "Little Red Wagon" is far from making a full recovery (and it might not ever happen--I'm quite skeptical of LRW's top 10 chances).
Canaan Smith and Kelsea Ballerini are finally almost to the top 20, while Michael Ray's song is just sitting there in the 20's like the total non-event that it is (mediocre sales, virtually no buzz, wouldn't be anywhere close to the top 40 right now if it weren't for On The Verge). Josh Turner continues to move slowly, while both Frankie Ballard and Gloriana continue to do decently well, especially considering how poorly they're doing sales-wise (Gloriana much more-so than Frankie).
Little Big Town has had a great week, and I've got "Girl Crush" leaping ahead of Rascal Flatts, Brantley Gilbert, and Gloriana, and checking in at #27 (again, if Jake stays on, then it'll be #28 for LBT). Kip Moore, Mickey Guyton, and Reba continue to move rather slowly, while Maddie & Tae and Chase Rice have both had pretty good weeks (they both did pretty well last week, too). Luke Bryan's "Games" should move up a few more spots, and Jason Aldean's new one "Tonight Looks Good On You" should blast all the way into the top 40.
Most of the songs in the 40's and 50's haven't been able to gain much this week, simply because there are so many new releases and right now most of the spins are either a) going to the most popular artists, or b) being spread fairly evenly among the tons of new releases. But I'm pretty confident that "Biscuits" and a few other songs will win out over the next couple of weeks and stride into the top 40 with wind in the sails (maybe "Hangover Tonight"? EYB's "Turn It On", Mo Pitney's "Country", Drake White's "It Feels Good", and Cam's "My Mistake" are other possibilities).
I've got the new ones from Lady A and Blake cruising into the top 50. Debuts will be limited this week--probably no more than 2, and we might not even get that many. I do think we'll see RaeLynn chart with her sophomore single, and I'm also thinking that Logan Mize could finally sneak into the #60 spot, but that's probably contingent on whether or not Jake Owen goes recurrent (poor Logan--his timing has been absolutely horrible). John King, Striking Matches, and Brothers Osborne are also in the running for top 60 spots, and even Aaron Watson is in the hunt for a top 60 placement, thanks in large part to big time airplay at KAJA in San Antonio.
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Markus Meyer
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Post by Markus Meyer on Mar 29, 2015 20:04:55 GMT -5
You're not gonna continue? God dammit. I love these projections.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Mar 30, 2015 18:55:09 GMT -5
Country Airplay *** No. 1 (1 week)*** "Homegrown" Zac Brown Band Greatest Gainer No. 37 "Tonight Looks Good On You" Jason Aldean Debut No. 58 "For A Boy" RaeLynn Debut No. 59 "That Look" Aaron Watson Debut No. 60 "Can't Get Away From A Good Time" Logan Mize ----- First guess: Your suspicions were correct RE: Jake Owen leaving AND also Brett Eldredge falling victim to the spins clause. Second guess: Josh Dorr fell even farther than expected. :( Side question: There's also this part of the rule: "...or if they rank below No. 10 and post a third consecutive week of audience decline, regardless of total chart weeks." How does that play when the audience loss is tiny and the song retains a bullet - does having a bullet reset that clock? Technically Josh Dorr and Gloriana both qualify for this; Josh's last three weeks before this have been bulletless, bulleted, bulletless. All three weeks showed audience losses, but there was a spin gain the second week. While Gloriana has shown only tiny audience losses the past two weeks before, but no spin or bullet loss. Not being used to following the Country chart, I'm a bit confused here. LOL
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dajire4
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Post by dajire4 on Mar 31, 2015 5:12:45 GMT -5
Such a sad thing to hear jhomes87. I do hope you change your mind and continue doing the predictions albeit the difficulties cause there's many of us out here who enjoy them. On a side note, looking at the chart these last few weeks has given me a new hope for females. I mean, as of April 11, we have both Carrie and Miranda in the top 20. Newcomer Kelsea Ballerini will soon join them and lower down the top 30 we have female-led groups LBT and Gloriana making inroads (especially the former). Reba and Mickey Guyton keep hanging in there as well, with Maddie & Tae's sophomore single poised to crack the top 30 in a few weeks. Kacey Musgraves', RaeLynn's, Ashley's, Jana's and Cam's new singles look promising as well and I'm expecting all of them to reach the top 40 at the very least. Baby steps but the door seems to be letting some more females through. I'm curious to see how Cassadee Pope, Lauren Alaina and Danielle Bradbery will fare when they come back with their new lead singles. Sadly, I don't see Kellie Pickler, Kelleigh Bannen, Katie Armiger or Sunny Sweeney scoring a hit, but of course not every one can't. Sorry for the rant, but you guys know I love my females ;)
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Apr 8, 2015 22:37:28 GMT -5
I'm really hoping that Joe Nichols goes recurrent on Billboard this week because there's a definite build up at the bottom of the chart.
I'm making my personal midweek predictions for Billboard next week and I can't decide who's going to debut and how high...
There's quite a few candidates.
Does George Strait, Toby Keith, Cole Swindell, & Thomas Rhett all debut in the same week? Will Logan Mize, Aaron Watson, or David Fanning rechart? Will John King, Striking Matches, Chase Bryant, Thompson Square? Do Ruthie Collins or Trisha Yearwood stand a chance? What about Chris Janson or Kid Rock?
Lots of options at the bottom and I'm curious to see next week due to the 5 big name songs that just got released (George, Toby, Cole, Thomas, T2) and what it means for songs that seemed to have decent buzz/adds (Logan, Aaron, Chase, Striking Matches, Chris).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2015 0:30:25 GMT -5
I'm really hoping that Joe Nichols goes recurrent on Billboard this week because there's a definite build up at the bottom of the chart. I'm making my personal midweek predictions for Billboard next week and I can't decide who's going to debut and how high... There's quite a few candidates. Does George Strait, Toby Keith, Cole Swindell, & Thomas Rhett all debut in the same week? Will Logan Mize, Aaron Watson, or David Fanning rechart? Will John King, Striking Matches, Chase Bryant, Thompson Square? Do Ruthie Collins or Trisha Yearwood stand a chance? What about Chris Janson or Kid Rock? Lots of options at the bottom and I'm curious to see next week due to the 5 big name songs that just got released (George, Toby, Cole, Thomas, T2) and what it means for songs that seemed to have decent buzz/adds (Logan, Aaron, Chase, Striking Matches, Chris). Even though I really enjoy Joe's song, I agree with you - it'd be nice to see that one leave. Unfortunately, right now it looks like the only recurrent will be Darius Rucker. Cole Swindell is gonna get another week in the top 10 because he's not falling very fast (actually he gained a little bit today, which is just crazy--I don't think I've ever seen that happen before, where a non-"More Than A Memory" former #1 posted a daily increase after falling down from #1). Kenny, Tim, and FGL aren't close enough to knock Cole off the chart either. A Thousand Horses will take Darius' spot. Joe would have to collapse over the weekend to go recurrent. King George is up to a modest 0.935 million in MB audience after just 4 days at radio, so he'll easily debut on Billboard--maybe somewhere in the Cam/Ashley Monroe/Montgomery Gentry neighborhood. Thomas Rhett is at 4.2 million since Monday, but it appears that most of that airplay came from iHeart stations on Tuesday. Still, he's probably heading for a BB debut of at least 4.5 million, which could put him in the top 40. He's projecting to land somewhere in the Mickey Guyton/Big & Rich/Lady Antebellum neighborhood. Aaron Watson won't get back on the chart, at least not this week. Most of his audience is coming from KAJA San Antonio (naturally), and they've slashed his airplay nearly in half this week. Josh Dorr could possibly re-enter (since he technically didn't go recurrent; he just fell out of the top 60 last week), but it's pretty clear that "Save Your Breath" isn't going to be a hit, even though it's seen a slight increase in spins this week. I'm not even sure why RCA is still bothering with that one. Logan Mize has had about the worst timing I've ever seen for the launch of a debut single. I don't think that one's going to get back on the chart this week, and quite frankly I'm stunned that it's not shaping up to be a hit, especially given how well the track sold from SiriusXM airplay. It really seemed like a track radio would jump on, due to its early sales. But there's just a ton of music out right now and radio has to pick and choose - they can't play everything. Logan's single has just been buried by an avalanche of new songs. And unfortunately it doesn't look like Striking Matches will score a hit either. They've also had poor timing. I still believe they could do well in the future but they are on a brand new label so they have a big uphill climb. Cole Swindell's "Let Me See Ya Girl" is at just over 1 mil in audience, so that one will debut and knock another song off. John King is another one who's had horrible timing - with a couple higher profile releases this week, and only one recurrent, "On Your Lips" stands virtually no chance of making its debut. It's probably gonna take a few weeks until John even has a chance to debut (we really need a housecleaning). Chase Bryant might be able to debut - looks like quite a few iHeart stations are starting to add his song this week. Problem is, it might take close to 1 million impressions just to crack the top 60...which is just absolutely insane. I'm not sure if Chase is quite gonna be able to make it. And I think Thompson Square will have to wait at least another week or two before they chart. David Fanning has seen a slight increase in spins this week but his total audience is so low that I doubt he ever returns to the top 60. Trisha Yearwood seems unlikely to chart at all, Ruthie Collins and Outshyne probably aren't gonna chart period (definitely not this week, anyway), and Toby won't debut either - "35 mph Town" isn't even to 100k on MB yet, despite being sent to radio on Monday. -- So, summing up, I think we'll see Thomas Rhett debut somewhere in the 38-41 range, and both George Strait and Cole Swindell should debut somewhere in the 52-56 range. Maybe Chase Bryant sneaks on at the bottom of the chart too. Darius looks to be the only recurrent, so with 3-4 debuts, we can expect to see a couple of songs get kicked out of the top 60, at least briefly. That's probably not good news for Waterloo Revival, LoCash, RaeLynn, and Casey James. Not saying all of them will get booted out, but probably 2-3 of them...which is just crazy, because all of them are still gaining themselves. Maybe Sam Hunt's "House Party" falls off too, but that one's getting a ton of spins from WUBL Atlanta this week, which might be enough to keep it in the top 60.
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justme60
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Post by justme60 on Apr 11, 2015 15:11:17 GMT -5
WUBL out of Atlanta has been playing "House Party" a long time. Instead of adding "Take Your Time" when it was released, they added HP, however they are now playing them both.
WUBL and WKHX in Atlanta play pretty much all artist from Georgia in constant rotation. I personally hate that.
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trebor
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Post by trebor on Apr 11, 2015 15:25:57 GMT -5
[...Edited...] / See post(s) above / Topic: Cole Swindell going recurrent J. Isn't this a plausible and likely scenario: Cole ends up #11 or #12 based on spins and automatically goes recurrent?
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Apr 11, 2015 15:47:55 GMT -5
Josh Dorr could possibly re-enter (since he technically didn't go recurrent; he just fell out of the top 60 last week), but it's pretty clear that "Save Your Breath" isn't going to be a hit, even though it's seen a slight increase in spins this week. I'm not even sure why RCA is still bothering with that one. I wondered a bit about this...I figured that had just fallen out on its own, but it was still crazy to see that happen in contrast with the song popping up on Indicator New & Active (again) with a 7 spin gain. I can't imagine it would be seeing a rebound, though - doing the math, he'd have had to lost at least 327K to fall off like that (~a third of its total). It's...not that common for songs with low audience to lose that much of it in one week only to gain it right back the next, is it? J. Isn't this a plausible and likely scenario: Cole ends up #11 or #12 based on spins and automatically goes recurrent? If Mediabase is any indication, that's possible - just two more days like today would put him below Kenny on that score. And what about Josh Turner? He hasn't been having the best of weeks, and actually right now he looks a bit worse off than Joe does. And based off the past few weeks, he hasn't been making much more headway.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2015 18:46:54 GMT -5
J. Isn't this a plausible and likely scenario: Cole ends up #11 or #12 based on spins and automatically goes recurrent? Cole certainly increased his chances of leaving with today's loss of 159 spins, but yesterday's MB update had "Ain't Worth The Whiskey" up 4 spins, so that's why I was thinking he would stay on (which would frustrate me). Right now I'd say that it's maybe closer to a 50-50 chance that Cole will leave. Cole was a little less than 1000 spins ahead of Kenny on Monday's Billboard, and he was 1100 spins ahead of Tim and 1300 spins ahead of FGL. In the last 7 days on MB he's only down 714 spins, but his bullet has been increasing every day (on Thursday morning it was over -1000, yesterday it was -788, and today it's -714). He might wind up losing only 600 spins on Billboard, which would mean that the pursuers would have to do the rest of the work...Kenny would need to gain 400 spins, Tim 500, and FGL 700. We really need Cole to lose another 300-350 spins in the next 2 days (400+ would be preferred). Up until today, his losses haven't been that much. On Tuesday he was only down 44 spins, Wednesday it was a loss of 70 spins, Thursday it was a loss of 106 spins, and Friday it was actually that small gain of 4 spins. Chesney is only up 254 spins in the last 7 days, and FGL is up 631, but keep in mind that their BB spin gains will be less, maybe 75-80% of what their MB spin gains are. So those two haven't made up enough ground yet. Thus...it's still not clear if either Kenny or FGL will be able to gain quite enough spins to send Cole recurrent. Right now...I'm leaning slightly towards Cole getting a final week at #10. Josh Dorr could possibly re-enter (since he technically didn't go recurrent; he just fell out of the top 60 last week), but it's pretty clear that "Save Your Breath" isn't going to be a hit, even though it's seen a slight increase in spins this week. I'm not even sure why RCA is still bothering with that one. I wondered a bit about this...I figured that had just fallen out on its own, but it was still crazy to see that happen in contrast with the song popping up on Indicator New & Active (again) with a 7 spin gain. I can't imagine it would be seeing a rebound, though - doing the math, he'd have had to lost at least 327K to fall off like that (~a third of its total). It's...not that common for songs with low audience to lose that much of it in one week only to gain it right back the next, is it?Short answer: Nope. Like you said, in order for Dorr to fall below #60, he must have lost over 327k last week. I don't think we'll see "Save Your Breath" in the top 60 again, especially given how insane the chart is down there. Just...so many songs. And what about Josh Turner? He hasn't been having the best of weeks, and actually right now he looks a bit worse off than Joe does. And based off the past few weeks, he hasn't been making much more headway. Turner certainly had an ugly update today, but he's only down about 90k in audience since Monday, so if he loses his bullet I think Billboard will give him a grace week. Joe Nichols had 18.328 mil on Monday's MB update, and today he's at 18.288. I think both would have to lose another 300-400k over the weekend for BB to even consider sending them recurrent.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2015 9:33:21 GMT -5
Eh, why not.
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart.
01) Zac Brown Band – “Homegrown” (44.800) 02) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (43.370) 03) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (40.770) 04) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (38.510) 05) Chris Young – “Lonely Eyes” (37.190) 06) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (35.090) 07) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (32.860) 08) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (30.840) 09) Cole Swindell – “Ain’t Worth The Whiskey” (26.690) [last week] 10) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (25.830) 11) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (22.570) 12) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (21.950) 13) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (21.660) 14-15) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (19.650) 14-15) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (19.650) 16) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (18.300) 17-18) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (16.710) 17-18) Miranda Lambert – “Little Red Wagon” (16.550) 19) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (16.010) 20) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (14.260) 21-22) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (12.800) 21-22) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (12.550) 23) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (12.030) 24) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (11.170) 25) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (10.330) 26-27) Joe Nichols – “Hard To Be Cool” (10.020) [last week?] 26-27) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (9.710) 28) Josh Turner – “Lay Low” (9.450) 29) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (9.000) 30) Gloriana – “Trouble” (8.420) 31-33) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (7.160) 31-33) Luke Bryan – “Games” (7.060) 31-33) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (7.050) 34-36) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (6.660) 34-36) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (6.530) 34-36) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (6.360) 37) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (5.200) 38) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (4.550) [NEW!] 39-41) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (4.290) 39-41) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (4.220) 39-41) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (4.180) 42) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (3.900) 43-44) Kacey Musgraves – “Biscuits” (3.220) 43-44) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (3.200) 45) Eli Young Band – “Turn It On” (2.910) 46-48) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (2.780) 46-48) Mo Pitney – “Country” (2.770) 46-48) Gary Allan – “Hangover Tonight” (2.740) 49) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (2.550) 50-52) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (1.750) 50-52) Drake White – “It Feels Good” 50-52) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” 53-56) Cam – “My Mistake” 53-56) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” 53-56) George Strait – “Let It Go” [NEW!] 53-56) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” [NEW!] 57-60) Ashley Monroe – “On To Something Good” 57-60) LoCash – “I Love This Life” 57-60) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” 57-60) RaeLynn – “For A Boy”
Bubbling Under:
...Casey James - "Fall Apart" ...Josh Dorr - "Save Your Breath" ...Sam Hunt - "House Party" ...Striking Matches - "Hanging On A Lie" ...Chase Bryant - "Little Bit Of You" ...Logan Mize - "Can't Get Away From A Good Time"
Going Recurrent:
* Darius Rucker's "Homegrown Honey" (34 weeks, #2 peak)
--
Will post some additional comments either this afternoon or this evening.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2015 8:56:55 GMT -5
It's just crazy how tough it is just to chart these days. Who would have imagined a former On the Verge artist's sophomore single wouldn't even be on the Billboard airplay chart at all two weeks after going for adds? I can't remember the chart being this tough before.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 13, 2015 9:19:53 GMT -5
Please continue with the predictions, jhomes87. They're just like you, priceless and fun to read.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2015 21:57:27 GMT -5
It's just crazy how tough it is just to chart these days. Who would have imagined a former On the Verge artist's sophomore single wouldn't even be on the Billboard airplay chart at all two weeks after going for adds? I can't remember the chart being this tough before. Yeah, the #58 song is above 1 million, which has never happened before. It used to be where 1 million was generally good enough to get close to #50 (maybe 50-52 range), and 3 million (give or take a bit) would get you into the top 40. On tonight's chart, Mickey Guyton is at #40, but with nearly 4.3 million in audience. There are about 70-75 songs trying to fit onto a 60-position chart, and it's driving up numbers everywhere. As you said, Chase Bryant hasn't even been able to crack the chart yet, and RaeLynn (also a former OTV selection) got pushed out of the top 60 tonight as well. Heck, we've had charts recently where every single song in the New & Active section would have enough audience that they'd normally rank in the top 60 (99% of the time). We are in desperate need of a housecleaning. Cole Swindell will leave next week. Chris Young...probably not (he'll probably get one more week in the top 10). Easton Corbin's probably not going anywhere yet, and so I'm really left wondering why Mercury hasn't announced an album release from him. I realize "Baby Be My Love Song" has sold quite poorly, but do they really think the next single is going to do any better if they don't release the album? They need to release the album when BBMLS peaks or it might never see a release. Miranda clearly isn't making any progress, but of course she'll just replace herself on the chart (with a new single) as soon as "Little Red Wagon" goes recurrent. Kelsea Ballerini's probably heading for a top 10 peak, and Canaan Smith might get there too. Then you've got Frankie Ballard and Michael Ray, both of whom have younger songs, but neither is selling worth a damn. Brantley Gilbert took WAY too long to catch on but now he's suddenly doing great. Joe Nichols and Josh Turner are barely moving, but I love Josh's song too much and therefore I hope it can stay on and make it into the top 20. If it was the 3rd single from his album (like Joe's is) then I'd feel differently, but Josh hasn't gotten his album out yet whereas Joe has. Gloriana = worst sales ever, literally every time they release a single. "(Kissed You) Good Night" was a fluke. Dustin Lynch and Rascal Flatts have been barely moving, but BBR will probably try to keep Dustin's song going until it reaches the top 20. I love Rascal Flatts' "Riot" but it's pretty clear that that one isn't going to even come close to the top 20. Kip Moore is really struggling, but at least his song is pretty young yet--and he's in the same situation as Josh Turner. I really want their songs to do well so their albums can come out. I'm hoping we'll see a bunch of songs go recurrent this month...not counting songs that are currently in the top 10, I'm thinking we might see Miranda collapse (and either go recurrent at the end of this month or early in May), and then I think Joe Nichols, Gloriana, Rascal Flatts, Reba, and Austin Webb probably won't last much longer. Luke's "Games" will probably disappear as soon as he releases a single, and I'd like to see Dustin Lynch and Chase Rice give up but I don't see that happening anytime soon. Frankie Ballard and Michael Ray probably won't leave anytime soon either, but I'm hoping they both hit a brick wall and leave once they reach the 20-week mark. Ultimately I think we are going to see a lot of "casualties"...songs that would have probably done well if they were released at a different time, but with the way things have gone, they've simply been buried by the sheer amount of new releases lately.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Apr 14, 2015 0:44:31 GMT -5
^And on top of that, Thomas Rhett just released his new single, and so did George Strait. Brett Eldredge is releasing his next single next week, and from looking at his Twitter account, it appears that Jake Owen is about to release a summer style song very soon as well. Randy Houser should be announcing a new single sometime soon as well, I can't imagine we won't at least get an adds date any later than sometime in May. At least when Luke's new single comes out, Games should fall off the chart and be replaced. But yeah, we have a mini blood bath about to begin. P.S. - Don't forget that ZBB and Sam Hunt will both be releasing new songs that should be flying up the charts as well starting soon.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2015 11:46:27 GMT -5
Here y'all go, my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart :) 01) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (43.050) 02) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (41.910) 03) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (39.310) 04-05) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (37.410) 04-05) Zac Brown Band – “Homegrown” (37.410) 06) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (35.760) 07) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (33.950) 08) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (28.020) 09) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (26.800) 10-11) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (23.460) 10-11) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (23.340) 12-13) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (21.680) 12-13) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (21.440) 14-15) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (18.280) 14-15) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (18.070) 16) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (17.420) 17) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (16.400) 18) Miranda Lambert – “Little Red Wagon” (15.590) 19) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (13.630) 20-22) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (13.240) 20-22) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (13.220) 20-22) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (13.210) 23) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (12.840) 24) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (12.430) 25-26) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (9.000) 25-26) Gloriana – “Trouble” (8.770) 27) Luke Bryan – “Games” (7.910) 28-30) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (7.380) 28-30) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (7.350) 28-30) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (7.350) 31-32) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (7.080) 31-32) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (6.850) 33) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (5.130) 34-35) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (4.640) 34-35) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (4.570) 36) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (4.220) 37-40) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (3.880) 37-40) Eli Young Band – “Turn It On” (3.830) 37-40) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (3.740) 37-40) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (3.650) 41) Kacey Musgraves – “Biscuits” (3.280) 42-43) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (2.910) 42-43) Gary Allan – “Hangover Tonight” (2.900) 44) Mo Pitney – “Country” (2.710) 45-46) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (2.500) 45-46) George Strait – “Let It Go” (2.200) 47) Drake White – “It Feels Good” (1.980) 48-51) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (1.800) 48-51) Thompson Square – “Trans Am” (1.750) [NEW!]48-51) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (1.680) 48-51) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” 52-53) Cam – “My Mistake” 52-53) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” 54-55) Casey James – “Fall Apart” 54-55) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” 56-58) LoCash – “I Love This Life” 56-58) Ashley Monroe – “On To Something Good” 56-58) Sam Hunt – “House Party” [Re-Entry]59-60) Chase Bryant – “Little Bit Of You” [NEW!]59-60) RaeLynn – “For A Boy” [Re-Entry]Bubbling Under:...Logan Mize - "Can't Get Away From A Good Time" ...Toby Keith - "35 mph Town" ...John King - "On Your Lips" ...Striking Matches - "Hanging On A Lie" ...Luke Bryan - "Checkin' Out" ...Kid Rock - "First Kiss" Going Recurrent:* Cole Swindell - "Ain't Worth The Whiskey" (27 weeks, #1 peak) * Chris Young - "Lonely Eyes" (35 weeks, #2 peak) -- 55% sure this will go recurrent (1)* Joe Nichols - "Hard To Be Cool" (33 weeks, #22 peak) -- 55% sure this will go recurrent (2)* Josh Turner - "Lay Low" (31 weeks, #25 peak) -- 85% sure this will go recurrent(1) Chris Young is projecting to land at #8 or #9 in audience (close to where A Thousand Horses is projecting to), but I think there's about a 55% chance that Chris will finish #11 in spins, just below Kenny Chesney, which would send "Lonely Eyes" recurrent. Obviously I'm not very confident about this though...I took Chris off, but it's looking like it's gonna be very close. (2) Joe Nichols is definitely eligible for a grace week (and so is Josh Turner for that matter), as "Hard To Be Cool" is actually only down about 540k since Monday...which normally isn't a big enough loss for Billboard to send a song recurrent, but I think it's slightly more likely (55% chance) that Joe will leave, simply because Billboard is long overdue for a housecleaning, and if they send Josh Turner recurrent (which seems quite likely) then I think that might increase the chance (to at least greater than 50%) that they'll send Joe recurrent along with him. Comments:Sam Hunt is on his way down now, but he's gonna be able to hang on long enough to be #1. If Dierks was on a different label (he's Sam's label-mate on UMG), then we might have seen Sam get blocked from #1 by the ZBB-Dierks combo, but in the end things worked out for Sam. As noted above, I've got Kenny Chesney finishing just barely ahead of Chris Young in spins, which would send Chris recurrent and give either Kenny or Tim the #10 spot. Paslay and Paisley should both move into the top 15, with Little Big Town surging into the top 20. Miranda's "Little Red Wagon" looks like it's peaked, but it's guaranteed another 2 more chart appearances yet. Brantley Gilbert, Frankie Ballard, and Blake Shelton are all headed for a photo finish for the #20 spot...but, of course, if Chris Young stays on, then it'll probably be less dramatic, as they'll all be battling for #21 instead. Blake's obviously going to go up way faster than both Brantley and Frankie, but Brantley has definitely picked up the pace over the last few weeks, and it now looks like "One Hell Of An Amen" will at least be a top 10 hit before all is said and done. Top 5 or better certainly isn't out of the question, either. Reba has a chance at the top 30 this week, but she'll need a few things to go her way--she needs Kenny Chesney to finish ahead of Chris Young in spins, and she needs Billboard to send Joe Nichols and/or Josh Turner (preferably both) off to recurrent-land. It would also help if Reba can finish ahead of Rascal Flatts and/or Dustin Lynch...and as you can see from the numbers above, that's looking like it's gonna be a really close race. And last but not least, Reba needs some of her good Mediabase gains this week to translate over to Billboard as well. "Going Out Like That" is up nearly 3.5 million in the last 6 days at MB, but most of that gain is from Westwood One. Have no fear--I accounted for that in my projections (I've got Reba gaining maybe 900k on BB this week). Kip Moore and Chase Rice continue to move very slowly, while Mickey Guyton has had a slightly better week. We could see quite a few new songs in the top 40, but again, that'll depend on how many songs go recurrent. Jana Kramer has had a really good week, and Eli Young Band's "Turn It On" is also finally showing signs of life. Parmalee, Brothers Osborne, and Dan + Shay have also had decent weeks, while both Kacey Musgraves and Gary Allan have rebounded slightly. I'm not very confident in where I've placed Thomas Rhett, but it doesn't seem like he'll post a net gain after all. Last week Tuesday he got a bunch of spins at iHeartMedia stations, so of course that didn't help him this week. On Monday Thomas debuted at #38 with close to 4.5 million, but I think he'll fall below 3 million and out of the top 40, at least briefly. George Strait should move up into the 40's, and Thompson Square is set for a pretty strong debut. Cam, Montgomery Gentry, Casey James, Waterloo Revival, LoCash, and Ashley Monroe all continue to move slowly through the 50's, but some of these songs are still pretty young yet so there's time for them to catch on (Cam and Casey probably have the most upside, but then again, maybe some of that gets canceled out as a result of Gary Overton's departure from Sony. I think Logan Mize's momentum has definitely been hurt by the changes there). Chase Bryant might finally debut this week, and RaeLynn could re-enter, but again, that will depend on how many songs go recurrent. Sam Hunt's likely-next single "House Party" is also starting to get picked up by more and more stations so we'll probably see that one back in the top 60, probably for good this time. Toby Keith's another possibility, but I think he might have to wait one more week.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 19, 2015 11:56:33 GMT -5
I said this in the Girl Crush thread: Girl Crush should break the top 20 next week when Cole Swindell leaves. Could go one more to #19 if Chris Young leaves as well (not sure about that one). You have it at #19 as well. Thanks for doing the predictions one more time. You're the bomb!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2015 12:07:14 GMT -5
I said this in the Girl Crush thread: Girl Crush should break the top 20 next week when Cole Swindell leaves. Could go one more to #19 if Chris Young leaves as well (not sure about that one). You have it at #19 as well. Thanks for doing the predictions one more time. You're the bomb! I had actually predicted in the "Girl Crush" thread that LBT would move up to #20 last week (on the 13th), but Cole Swindell surprised me and stayed at #9 for another week, so LBT finished at #21 instead. But I do think we'll see them in the top 20 tomorrow.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Apr 19, 2015 13:38:10 GMT -5
Thanks for posting! Always love reading them!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2015 21:11:03 GMT -5
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart.
01) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (43.640) 02) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (40.920) 03) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (39.580) 04) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (38.670) 05) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (37.340) 06) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (35.670) 07-09) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (32.550) 07-09) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (32.510) 07-09) Zac Brown Band – “Homegrown” (32.370) [last week] 10) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (25.950) 11) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (23.870) 12) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (23.240) 13) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (22.760) 14) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (20.760) 15) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (18.670) 16-17) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (17.950) [last week?] 16-17) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (17.830) 18) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (17.410) 19) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (16.460) 20) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (15.850) 21-22) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (14.870) 21-22) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (14.600) 23) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (13.850) 24) Miranda Lambert – “Little Red Wagon” (11.750) [last week] 25-26) Luke Bryan – “Games” (9.510) 25-26) Gloriana – “Trouble” (9.330) 27-28) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (8.710) 27-28) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (8.480) 29) Zac Brown Band – “Loving You Easy” (7.900) [NEW!] 30) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (7.660) 31) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (7.120) 32-33) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (6.860) 32-33) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (6.750) 34) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (5.350) 35-40) Brett Eldredge – “Lose My Mind” (4.880) [NEW!] 35-40) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (4.820) 35-40) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (4.730) 35-40) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (4.690) 35-40) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (4.690) 35-40) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (4.590) 41-42) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (4.200) 41-42) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (4.070) 43-44) Eli Young Band – “Turn It On” (3.890) 43-44) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (3.870) 45-47) Kacey Musgraves – “Biscuits” (3.020) 45-47) Gary Allan – “Hangover Tonight” (3.020) 45-47) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (2.900) 48-49) Mo Pitney – “Country” (2.680) 48-49) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” (2.600) 50-51) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (2.200) 50-51) George Strait – “Let It Go” 52-53) Thompson Square – “Trans Am” 52-53) Drake White – “It Feels Good” 54-56) Casey James – “Fall Apart” 54-56) Cam – “My Mistake” 54-56) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” 57-59) Sam Hunt – “House Party” 57-59) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” 57-59) Chase Bryant – “Little Bit Of You” 60) LoCash – “I Love This Life”
Bubbling Under:
...Toby Keith - "35 mph Town" ...Ashley Monroe - "On To Something Good" ...RaeLynn - "For A Boy" ...Logan Mize - "Can't Get Away From A Good Time" ...John King - "On Your Lips" ...Striking Matches - "Hanging On A Lie" ...Chris Stapleton - "Traveller" ...Ruthie Collins - "Ramblin' Man" ...Kid Rock - "First Kiss"
Comments:
Despite Lee Brice getting the Mediabase #1, Dierks Bentley should easily take the Billboard #1 tomorrow--it doesn't even look to be all that close between the two of them. Keith & Eric should move up to #3, with Tyler Farr scoring his 3rd consecutive top 5 hit. A Thousand Horses and Florida Georgia Line are both red hot as they continue to see more and more top 10 conversions. Tim McGraw and Easton Corbin have slowed just outside the top 10, and Carrie Underwood is also moving a bit slowly, although I expect "Little Toy Guns" to really take off again once there's an open spot in the top 10 rotation.
Kelsea Ballerini has had a big week; look for "Love Me Like You Mean It" to jump ahead of Brad Paisley and Eric Paslay and land at #14. That would tie Kelsea with Craig Morgan's "Wake Up Lovin' You" (which peaked at #14) as the 2nd-highest-charting single from Black River. Only Craig Morgan's "This Ole Boy" has seen a higher peak (#13) for the indie label. Blake Shelton's "Sangria" is white hot and will easily move into the top 20. The chart as a whole is pretty slow this week, with so many artists trying to gain ground, but Blake is the one artist who seemingly can never be slowed. Little Big Town's "Girl Crush" has had a pretty big week, and it's also been a solid week for Canaan Smith, Frankie Ballard, Brantley Gilbert, and Jason Aldean.
Luke Bryan's non-single "Games" continues to climb higher, while Eric Church's "Like A Wrecking Ball" continues to really struggle despite extremely impressive sales figures. Zac Brown Band's new one "Loving You Easy" should debut in the top 30, and Brett Eldredge looks poised for a top 40 debut, possibly checking in as high as #35. Reba has had a bit of a rough week, losing more than half a million in audience on MB, but it's also been a rough week for Rascal Flatts, Maddie & Tae, and Kip Moore. Chase Rice continues to move very slowly, and it's really been a slow start for Lady A's "Long Stretch Of Love" as well. Mickey Guyton, on the other hand, has had her best week in quite some time...and yet she's still unlikely to move up much (if at all) in terms of chart position, thanks to new releases from Thomas Rhett and the aforementioned high debuts for ZBB and Brett.
Brothers Osborne has had a great week, and both Dan + Shay and Parmalee have had pretty good weeks as well. It's been another really rough week for Eli Young Band, Kacey Musgraves, Gary Allan, Mo Pitney, and Drake White, however. Jana Kramer has had a pretty decent week, but the flurry of new releases will almost certainly push her out of the top 40. In fact, it might take 4.5 to 4.6 million just to crack the top 40 this week (for future reference, usually 3 million is good enough to make #40). Austin Webb has had a big week thanks to the Cumulus block, and Cole Swindell--fresh off his ACM win for Best New Artist--has had a great week with "Let Me See Ya Girl".
The last few weeks and the low adds number for George Strait have shown that he's really got his work cut out for him with "Let It Go". Thompson Square, Casey James, Cam, Montgomery Gentry, Waterloo Revival, and Chase Bryant are all facing big uphill climbs as well, and that's not to mention RaeLynn and Logan Mize who are having a tough time just making it into the top 60. It looks like, for the first time in Billboard history (as far as I know anyway), the #60 song could have more than 1 million in audience. By my calculations, it's possible that songs 61 & 62 might even be above 1 million. Usually 500-600k is good enough to crack the top 60, and I can even remember a few occasions in the last couple of years in which a couple songs with 300-500k audience totals were able to crack the top 60.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Apr 27, 2015 0:55:25 GMT -5
With the higher audience levels I wonder if Billboard would consider upping the number of positions on the chart again? I'd love to see a top 75 or 100 again.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Apr 27, 2015 14:44:28 GMT -5
With the higher audience levels I wonder if Billboard would consider upping the number of positions on the chart again? I'd love to see a top 75 or 100 again. The chart seems to be operating as a pendulum over the past few weeks...two weeks ago, the chart saw a very high minimum (#60) threshold, then last week lowered that with housecleaning. Now this week it's back up again - but, let's say all three of Jamie's "last week" predictions come true and "Homegrown"-Miranda-Eric Paslay all leave next week. That'd be more housecleaning... :)
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Apr 27, 2015 15:06:56 GMT -5
With the higher audience levels I wonder if Billboard would consider upping the number of positions on the chart again? I'd love to see a top 75 or 100 again. Personally I wouldn't like that idea. For one, the country chart is already far, far longer than any of the other genre charts are at present. And then beyond that, I'm not sure what good it would do to have extra positions anyway. It would allow for some of the songs that are struggling to get on right now to show up as charting in the 60's instead of being "hidden"/"off the chart," but I don't see how that would help them any.
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dajire4
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Post by dajire4 on Apr 28, 2015 12:48:44 GMT -5
With the higher audience levels I wonder if Billboard would consider upping the number of positions on the chart again? I'd love to see a top 75 or 100 again. Personally I wouldn't like that idea. For one, the country chart is already far, far longer than any of the other genre charts are at present. And then beyond that, I'm not sure what good it would do to have extra positions anyway. It would allow for some of the songs that are struggling to get on right now to show up as charting in the 60's instead of being "hidden"/"off the chart," but I don't see how that would help them any. But it's always good to be able to talk about top 70 hits
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2015 18:26:12 GMT -5
Doesn't look like we're going to see too many recurrents on Monday. Miranda will leave, but that's probably about it. Eric Paslay has rebounded nicely, and ZBB's "Homegrown" is falling so slowly that it will probably get one more week in the top 10 yet. I'm actually not surprised on that--I know that "Loving You Easy" is out now, but "Homegrown" was a huge hit and it's still so young. All the call-out data I look at shows that the burn rate for "Homegrown" is really small too, so it makes sense that radio is gonna keep playing it at a high level--listeners aren't tired of it yet.
The good news is that this might lead to a bigger housecleaning on Monday the 11th. We should see 3 top 10's drop off in the same week--ZBB, Sam Hunt, and Lee Brice. Unless Reba can rebound, I think she'll go recurrent then as well. Eric Paslay, Gloriana, Rascal Flatts, and a few other lower-charting songs probably won't last much longer, either.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2015 23:33:08 GMT -5
Here are my projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart :)
01) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (43.550) 02) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (40.840) 03) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (40.200) 04) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (37.830) 05) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (35.250) 06) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (33.750) 07-08) Sam Hunt – “Take Your Time” (30.900) [last week] 07-08) Lee Brice – “Drinking Class” (30.800) [last week] 09) Zac Brown Band – “Homegrown” (29.810) [last week] 10) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (27.600) 11-13) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (24.540) 11-13) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (24.410) 11-13) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (24.300) 14) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (21.900) 15-17) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (19.930) 15-17) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (19.920) 15-17) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (19.730) 18-19) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (18.560) 18-19) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (18.530) 20) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (17.670) 21) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (17.170) 22) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (16.340) 23) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (15.030) 24) Luke Bryan – “Games” (11.540) 25-28) Gloriana – “Trouble” (9.570) 25-28) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (9.370) 25-28) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (9.300) 25-28) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (9.130) 29) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (8.260) 30-31) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (7.050) 30-31) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (6.950) 32-33) Zac Brown Band – “Loving You Easy” (6.360) 32-33) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (6.180) [last week?] 34) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (5.490) 35-38) Brett Eldredge – “Lose My Mind” (5.220) 35-38) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (5.130) 35-38) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (4.990) 35-38) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (4.910) 39) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (4.670) 40) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (4.420) 41-43) Eli Young Band – “Turn It On” (4.160) 41-43) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” (4.100) 41-43) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (3.990) 44-46) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (3.310) 44-46) Kacey Musgraves – “Biscuits” (3.260) 44-46) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (3.190) 47) Gary Allan – “Hangover Tonight” (2.870) 48) Mo Pitney – “Country” (2.580) 49-50) Thompson Square – “Trans Am” (2.410) 49-50) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (2.400) 51-52) George Strait – “Let It Go” 51-52) Sam Hunt – “House Party” 53-54) Drake White – “It Feels Good” 53-54) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” 55-58) Chase Bryant – “Little Bit Of You” 55-58) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” [Re-Entry] 55-58) Casey James – “Fall Apart” 55-58) Cam – “My Mistake” 59) LoCash – “I Love This Life” 60-65) Toby Keith – “35 mph Town” (possible debut) 60-65) RaeLynn – “For A Boy” (possible re-entry) 60-65) Ashley Monroe – “On To Something Good” 60-65) Kid Rock – “First Kiss” (possible debut) 60-65) Chris Janson – “Buy Me A Boat” (possible debut) 60-65) Logan Mize – “Can’t Get Away From A Good Time” (possible re-entry)
Comments:
Dierks Bentley will spend a 2nd week at #1, with Keith Urban & Eric Church likely moving up to #2, followed by Tyler Farr at #3. Look for Billy Currington and A Thousand Horses to jump into the top 5. Lee Brice has had one of the steepest drops we've seen in a long time, while ZBB's "Homegrown" is declining very slowly. Nevertheless, those two will join Sam Hunt in going recurrent next week...it'll be a much-needed housecleaning for the top 10.
Tim, Carrie, and Easton are all neck and neck just below the top 10, with Blake Shelton coming up fast. LBT's "Girl Crush" continues to do well, and Canaan Smith has also had a nice week.
Outside the top 20, we have a lot of slow-movers, including Gloriana, Eric Church, and Dustin Lynch. Kip Moore has also been moving slowly, but he might be able to finally sneak into the top 30 this week. As expected, Zac Brown Band and Brett Eldredge have both seen setbacks in week #2, but they'll definitely be rebounding next week. Reba looks like she'll be without a bullet for the 2nd straight week, which means she'll go recurrent next week unless she can get that bullet back. Meanwhile, Chase Rice, Lady Antebellum, Mickey Guyton, Big & Rich, Dan + Shay, Parmalee, Eli Young Band, Kacey Musgraves, Jana Kramer, Gary Allan, and Mo Pitney all continue to move very slowly throughout the 30's and 40's. And all the songs in the 50's are moving slowly too, including King George's latest, as well as singles from Drake White, Montgomery Gentry, Chase Bryant, Casey James, Cam, and LoCash.
I've got Waterloo Revival returning to the top 60, and I think there's a chance that we'll see one other new/returning song sneak in right at #60. The competition is fierce, though, as Toby Keith, Kid Rock, and Chris Janson are all projecting toward the same audience total, along with last week's #60 song, Ashley Monroe's "On To Something Good", as well as the singles from RaeLynn and Logan Mize, both of which spent only a brief amount of time in the top 60 before being pushed out. Since it's too close to call, I listed them all as positions 60-65.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2015 10:53:21 GMT -5
I've got family coming in tomorrow so I went ahead and did my projections today, basing them off 5 days of Mediabase data instead of 6. This probably means that they won't be quite as accurate (larger margin of error). There's also the panel change, with Billboard adding 3 stations to the panel. I did try to factor the new airplay in from those 3 stations, however, as it is track-able on AllAccess already.
My projections for Monday's Billboard chart:
01) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (44.320) 02) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (41.810) 03) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (40.060) 04) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (39.580) 05) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (36.650) 06) Dierks Bentley – “Say You Do” (33.100) [last week?] 07) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (30.000) 08-09) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (27.100) 08-09) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (26.710) 10) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (26.480) 11) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (23.010) 12) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (22.160) 13) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (21.660) 14-15) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (21.000) 14-15) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (20.840) 16-17) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (19.700) 16-17) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (19.640) 18) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (19.040) 19) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (18.440) 20) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (16.260) 21) Luke Bryan – “Games” (13.690) 22) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (10.840) 23-25) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (10.270) 23-25) Gloriana – “Trouble” (9.900) 23-25) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (9.850) 26) Zac Brown Band – “Loving You Easy” (9.160) 27-29) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (8.460) 27-29) Chris Janson – “Buy Me A Boat” (8.250) 27-29) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (8.180) 30-31) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (7.580) 30-31) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (7.210) 32-33) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (6.250) 32-33) Brett Eldredge – “Lose My Mind” (6.170) 34-38) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (5.240) 34-38) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (5.180) 34-38) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (5.110) 34-38) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (5.050) 34-38) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (4.940) 39-40) Eli Young Band – “Turn It On” (4.700) 39-40) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” (4.490) 41-44) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (3.570) 41-44) Kacey Musgraves – “Biscuits” (3.550) 41-44) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (3.400) 41-44) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (3.280) 45-47) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (2.800) 45-47) Gary Allan – “Hangover Tonight” (2.630) [last week?] 45-47) Mo Pitney – “Country” (2.550) 48-50) George Strait – “Let It Go” (2.300) 48-50) Thompson Square – “Trans Am” (2.300) 48-50) Sam Hunt – “House Party” (2.300) 51-52) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” 51-52) Drake White – “It Feels Good” 53-55) Cam – “My Mistake” 53-55) Casey James – “Fall Apart” 53-55) Chase Bryant – “Little Bit Of You” 56-57) Kid Rock – “First Kiss” [NEW!] 56-57) LoCash – “I Love This Life” 58-60) Toby Keith – “35 mph Town” 58-60) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” [Re-Entry] 58-60) Ashley Monroe – “On To Something Good” [Re-Entry]
Bubbling Under:
...RaeLynn - "For A Boy" ...Chris Stapleton - "Traveller" ...Darius Rucker - "Southern Style" ...Logan Mize - "Can't Get Away From A Good Time" ...Granger Smith - "Backroad Song" ...Aaron Watson - "That Look"
Going Recurrent:
* Zac Brown Band's "Homegrown" (16 weeks, #1 peak for 3 weeks) * Sam Hunt's "Take Your Time" (25 weeks, #1 peak) * Lee Brice's "Drinking Class" (36 weeks, #2 peak)
Comments:
Keith Urban is set to score his 18th #1 with "Raise 'Em Up", his duet with Eric Church. For Eric, it'll be his 6th #1. Tyler Farr should move up to #2, with Billy Currington, A Thousand Horses, and Florida Georgia Line rounding out the top 5.
After 3 weeks at #10, Kenny Chesney should move up to #7 with "Wild Child". And with 3 top 10's set to go recurrent, look for Tim McGraw, Carrie Underwood, and Easton Corbin to all return to the top 10 this week. Kelsea Ballerini should move up to #11, which means "Love Me Like You Mean It" will officially become the highest-charting single for Black River Entertainment. Blake Shelton and Canaan Smith should each move up a few spots, and LBT is poised to bound into the top 15 with "Girl Crush". Brad Paisley and Eric Paslay continue to move somewhat slowly. Jason Aldean, Brantley Gilbert, and Michael Ray should all enter the top 20.
At #21 I expect to see Luke Bryan's "Games". We'll have to wait and see if he can crack the top 20; there's a rather big audience gap between Luke and the 20 songs above him, and a few other songs (notably ZBB and Chris Janson) are coming up fast from below, so whether "Games" can make the top 20 or not will probably depend on how many songs go recurrent over the next couple of weeks. Eric Church and Rascal Flatts should each move up a handful of spots this week, with Gloriana still really struggling. Dustin Lynch, Maddie & Tae, and Kip Moore have all had rather slow weeks as well.
I've got Chris Janson jumping up more than 30 spots thanks to On The Verge. Imagine if he had been #61 instead of #60 last week...then he'd be looking at a top 30 debut. That's a bit of a bad break for Reba--it looks like this week would have been her best chance to crack the top 30, but it looks like Janson will take her spot instead. There's a chance Reba could make the top 30 yet if she can sneak ahead of Kip Moore, but I don't think that chance is more than 20%.
Chase Rice, Big & Rich, Lady Antebellum, and Mickey Guyton all continue to move very slowly. Eli Young Band should return to the top 40, and Cole Swindell should also move into the top 40. Most of the songs outside the top 40 continue to barely move at all--it's been another week with almost no gains (or in some cases, small losses) for Kacey Musgraves, Jana Kramer, Austin Webb, Gary Allan, Mo Pitney, Thompson Square, and Drake White. There's even a chance that Mo Pitney could go recurrent, but I think he'll re-bullet. And Gary Allan might be looking at his 2nd straight week without a bullet as well.
Meanwhile, new tunes from Old Dominion and Sam Hunt seem likely to crack the top 50 (neither has gone for adds yet, and "House Party" hasn't even officially been sent to radio), so that's definitely a good sign for both of them. Veteran artists like George Strait, Toby Keith, and Montgomery Gentry, however, are really having a tough time moving up at all. It's also been a slow-go for new artists Chase Bryant, Casey James, and Cam, while other newbies like Waterloo Revival, Ashley Monroe, and RaeLynn are just trying to get back into the top 60.
As noted above, I think Kid Rock should debut quite easily, and I think we'll see at least 2 re-entries, maybe 3 if Toby Keith gets bumped out. There's a chance that Chris Stapleton could debut as well, although I think he'll have to wait at least another week. I've got Darius Rucker listed as 'bubbling under', but make no mistake, "Southern Style" is off to an alarmingly bad start; it's gotten very few adds, and it seems likely to have only 700-800k on Billboard, which is not a very good number for him, considering it's been a week since the song went for adds.
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onebuffalo
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I am One Buffalo.
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Post by onebuffalo on May 9, 2015 12:46:47 GMT -5
On behalf of the Country Forum, thank you again for the predictions. A must read during the weekends.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2015 0:43:17 GMT -5
Kind of late tonight, but oh well. Here are my top 60 projections for tomorrow's Billboard chart:
01) Tyler Farr – “A Guy Walks Into A Bar” (45.170) 02) Billy Currington – “Don’t It” (43.600) 03) A Thousand Horses – “Smoke” (43.240) 04) Florida Georgia Line – “Sippin’ On Fire” (40.750) 05) Keith Urban f/ Eric Church – “Raise ‘Em Up” (36.050) 06) Kenny Chesney f/ Grace Potter – “Wild Child” (33.920) 07) Carrie Underwood – “Little Toy Guns” (30.320) 08) Easton Corbin – “Baby Be My Love Song” (29.040) 09) Tim McGraw f/ Catherine Dunn – “Diamond Rings & Old Barstools” (27.940) 10-11) Kelsea Ballerini – “Love Me Like You Mean It” (26.480) 10-11) Blake Shelton – “Sangria” (26.000) 12) Canaan Smith – “Love You Like That” (23.940) 13) Little Big Town – “Girl Crush” (23.280) 14) Brad Paisley – “Crushin’ It” (21.770) 15) Jason Aldean – “Tonight Looks Good On You” (21.050) 16) Brantley Gilbert – “One Hell Of An Amen” (20.490) 17) Frankie Ballard – “Young & Crazy” (20.030) 18) Eric Paslay – “She Don’t Love You” (19.510) [last week?] 19) Michael Ray – “Kiss You In The Morning” (17.880) 20) Luke Bryan – “Games” (16.540) 21) Zac Brown Band – “Loving You Easy” (11.890) 22) Eric Church – “Like A Wrecking Ball” (11.250) 23-24) Thomas Rhett – “Crash And Burn” (10.750) 23-24) Gloriana – “Trouble” (10.750) 25-26) Dustin Lynch – “Hell Of A Night” (10.310) 25-26) Rascal Flatts – “Riot” (10.220) 27) Chris Janson – “Buy Me A Boat” (9.500) 28) Maddie & Tae – “Fly” (8.490) 29-30) Brett Eldredge – “Lose My Mind” (7.950) 29-30) Kip Moore – “I’m To Blame” (7.900) 31-32) Chase Rice – “Gonna Wanna Tonight” (7.660) 31-32) Reba – “Going Out Like That” (7.560) 33) Steven Tyler – “Love Is Your Name” (7.100) [NEW!] 34) Old Dominion – “Break Up With Him” (6.160) 35) Big & Rich – “Run Away With You” (5.490) 36-40) Parmalee – “Already Callin’ You Mine” (5.200) 36-40) Mickey Guyton – “Better Than You Left Me” (5.180) 36-40) Dan + Shay – “Nothin’ Like You” (5.120) 36-40) Cole Swindell – “Let Me See Ya Girl” (5.050) 36-40) Lady Antebellum – “Long Stretch Of Love” (5.000) 41-42) Sam Hunt – “House Party” (4.680) 41-42) Eli Young Band – “Turn It On” (4.500) 43-44) Jana Kramer – “I Got The Boy” (3.820) 43-44) Brothers Osborne – “Stay A Little Longer” (3.740) 45-46) Austin Webb – “All Country On You” (3.450) 45-46) Kacey Musgraves – “Biscuits” (3.200) 47-48) Mo Pitney – “Country” (2.900) 47-48) Gary Allan – “Hangover Tonight” (2.890) 49) Thompson Square – “Trans Am” (2.300) 50-51) George Strait – “Let It Go” (2.000) 50-51) Drake White – “It Feels Good” 52-54) Montgomery Gentry – “Folks Like Us” 52-54) Chase Bryant – “Little Bit Of You” 52-54) Casey James – “Fall Apart” 55-58) Kid Rock – “First Kiss” 55-58) Cam – “My Mistake” 55-58) Ashley Monroe – “On To Something Good” 55-58) LoCash – “I Love This Life” 59-60) Waterloo Revival – “Hit The Road” 59-60) Chris Stapleton – “Traveller” [NEW!]
Bubbling Under:
...Darius Rucker - "Southern Style" ...RaeLynn - "For A Boy" ...Logan Mize - "Can't Get Away From A Good Time" ...Granger Smith - "Backroad Song" ...Toby Keith - "35 mph Town" ...Lee Brice - "That Don't Sound Like You"
Going Recurrent:
* Zac Brown Band's "Homegrown" (17 weeks on chart, 3 weeks at #1) * Dierks Bentley's "Say You Do" (32 weeks on chart, 2 weeks at #1)
Comments:
After his last 2 singles stopped at #3, Tyler Farr is set to score his first Billboard #1 with "A Guy Walks Into A Bar". He should be followed by Billy Currington, A Thousand Horses, and Florida Georgia Line, with Keith Urban & Eric Church falling down to #5. Carrie Underwood should move up a couple more spots, and Easton Corbin will return to the top 10 for the first time since September of 2013. Kelsea Ballerini is also poised to take debut single "Love Me Like You Mean It" into the top 10, although it could be close with Blake Shelton's "Sangria".
Little Big Town's "Girl Crush" should move up a few more spots, while Brad Paisley's "Crushin' It" and Eric Paslay's "She Don't Love You" continue to move slowly. In fact, there's a slight chance that Paslay could go recurrent, but I think he's more likely to get a grace week if he does indeed lose his bullet. Brantley Gilbert should also move up a few spots, with Michael Ray's debut single "Kiss You In The Morning" entering the top 20. Also look for Luke Bryan's non-single "Games" to enter the top 20, and just in time, too, with his official next single "Kick The Dust Up" set to hit radio this week.
Zac Brown Band and Thomas Rhett have both had pretty good weeks, while Eric Church, Gloriana, Dustin Lynch, Rascal Flatts, Maddie & Tae, and Kip Moore all continue to move very slowly. Brett Eldredge should move into the top 30, with Chase Rice and Reba just missing the cut. Steven Tyler should score a splashy debut at #33, thanks to once-an-hour spins from iHeartMedia stations on Wednesday. New group Old Dominion is really on the move--they should breeze past a bunch of other slow-moving artists, including Big & Rich, Parmalee, Mickey Guyton, Dan + Shay, Lady Antebellum, and the Eli Young Band. Look for Cole Swindell to move into the top 40, and Sam Hunt is closing in fast as well, still 2 weeks before the add date for "House Party".
The trend of the "slow-moving songs-in-the-40's" otherwise continues, with Jana Kramer, Brothers Osborne, Austin Webb, Kacey Musgraves, Mo Pitney, Gary Allan, and Thompson Square all struggling to add airplay. And actually, the same is the case for most of the songs in the 50's...George Strait, Drake White, Montgomery Gentry, Chase Bryant, Casey James, Cam, Ashley Monroe, LoCash, and Waterloo Revival are all barely moving, with some of them even likely to lose a bit of audience this week.
I do think we'll see Chris Stapleton's "Traveller" make its debut this week, which is actually quite impressive, given the sonic nature of the song and the congestion on the charts right now. RaeLynn and Logan Mize look like they'll once again be stuck on the outside looking in. And Darius Rucker, Toby Keith, and Lee Brice are off to extremely slow starts...I don't think that bodes well for any of their songs.
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