Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 23, 2012 0:28:25 GMT -5
Enjoyed reading this chart analysis. I think Sunny will spend her last BB chart week, along with her last MB chart week, below the top 40. Sad finish. And with Edens Edge set to leave as well, it's not a happy chart week for me.
Maybe Keith Urban can take pity on me and gain enough on the last day to slip past Kenny Chesney? And I guess I'm glad that Trace Adkins is going to return to the top 40 after a 4-week absence, although it's hard to get too excited about that one. And I'm definitely looking forward to The Farm debuting in the Billboard top 40.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 23, 2012 19:28:59 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "I Don't Want This Night To End" Luke Bryan Greatest Gainer No. 4 "All Your Life" The Band Perry Hot Shot Debut No. 51 "No Hurry" Zac Brown Band
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2012 6:39:09 GMT -5
Jason Aldean's "Tattoos On This Town" and The JaneDear Girls' "Merry Go Round" leave the chart, as expected. Eden's Edge and Sara Evans barely hung on.
The #60 song was a re-entry--Clay Walker's "Like We Never Said Goodbye". It's got an audience of 548k, and #59, Katie Armiger's "Scream", has 607k. I don't think I've ever seen the bottom songs have such high audience levels. Well, they're not big numbers, but for songs ranked #59 and #60, they are. Normally, 600-700k would put a song maybe in the 50-52 range or so, while sometimes 300k is enough to chart, or it could even be less than that.
Poor Canaan Smith, whose debut single "We Got Us" continues to pick up several adds per week (adds date was January 9), yet hasn't charted in the top 60 yet. He's #1 on New & Active, with an astounding 522k, which 90-95% of the time is probably enough to earn a top 60 placement.
Time for a house-cleaning, Billboard!
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justme60
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Post by justme60 on Jan 24, 2012 14:57:54 GMT -5
Time for a house-cleaning, Billboard! I second this!!
It seems like the BP song has been on the charts FOREVER! I think the other 2 artist ZBB and LB have had several songs go up with this one. I'm getting pretty sick of it!
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.indulgecountry
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Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jan 24, 2012 15:03:26 GMT -5
^ Agreed. If songs like Amen, Drink Myself Single, and My Heart Can't Tell You No have to go, then Camouflage needs to join them.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2012 0:01:02 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for the 2/11 Billboard chart:
1-2) Chris Young - "You" 1-2) Luke Bryan - "I Don't Want This Night To End" 3) The Band Perry – “All Your Life” 4) Eric Church – “Drink In My Hand” 5) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 6) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 7) Zac Brown Band – “Keep Me In Mind” (last week) 8) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 9) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” 10-11) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” 10-11) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 12) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 13) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 14-15) Hunter Hayes – “Storm Warning” 14-15) Brad Paisley – “Camouflage” 16-17) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 16-17) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 18-19) Justin Moore – “Bait A Hook” 18-19) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 20) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 21) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 22) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 23-24) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 23-24) Rascal Flatts – “Banjo” 25) Billy Currington – “Like My Dog” 26) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 27) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 28-29) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 28-29) Faith Hill – “Come Home” (last week) 30) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 31) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 32-33) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 32-33) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 34-35) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 34-35) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 36-37) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 36-37) Zac Brown Band – “No Hurry” 38-39) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 38-39) Trace Adkins – “Million Dollar View” 40) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 41-42) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 41-42) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 43-44) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” 43-44) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 45) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 46-49) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” 46-49) Kevin Fowler – “That Girl” 46-49) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 46-49) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 50) Alan Jackson – “So You Don’t Have To Love Me Anymore” 51) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 52) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 53) Neal McCoy – “A-Ok” 54-56) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” 54-56) Katie Armiger – “Scream” 54-56) Canaan Smith – “We Got Us” [NEW!] 57) Phil Vassar – “Don’t Miss Your Life” [NEW!] 58-60) Eric Church - "Springsteen” [NEW!] 58-60) Thompson Square – “Glass” [NEW!] 58-60) Steve Holy - "Until The Rain Stops” (RE)
Comments:
After a few weeks with minimal chart movement (which is typical in January, following the holiday slowdown), a few songs will leave the chart this week. David Nail's "Let It Rain" is set to go recurrent after 51 weeks on the chart. Joining him will be 44-week old song "Amen" by Eden's Edge and 34-week old song "My Heart Can't Tell You No" by Sara Evans. Sunny Sweeney's "Drink Myself Single" will also leave, and Brent Anderson's debut single "Amy's Song" seems likely to go recurrent, as well. For the past few weeks, the audience needed to make the top 60 has continued to increase, due to minimal chart week, but this week, it was tough to find more than 59 songs that wanted to chart. I'll get to that in a minute. But first...the race at the top.
Luke Bryan hit #1 last week, and has a chance for a 2nd week, but Chris Young may just track him down. They're neck and neck...but if you want me to pick one, my odds are 51% Chris, 49% Luke...yep, it's that close! Meanwhile, The Band Perry moves up to #3, perhaps ready to strike next week after Chris and Luke are done fighting it out, as neither may be able to hang around the 39 million mark much longer. Look for Keith Urban to fly into the top 5, leaving Kenny Chesney in the dust. It would seem as if Kenny might not have enough left in the tank to hit #1, while Keith continues to zoom forward with his eyes on the #1 spot, which he could hit in just a few short weeks.
Dierks Bentley's "Home" is picking up speed and should sneak ahead of Martina this week. Toby Keith's "Red Solo Cup" is slowing to a halt, and George Strait is really closing in. The last spot in the top 10 is up for grabs, and it looks almost too close to call. I'll say Toby barely makes it in this week, before being overtaken by George next week. Taylor Swift has also slowed up a bit this week, and will almost certainly be re-passed by a fast-moving Jake Owen. Look for the slow-moving Hunter Hayes and Brad Paisley to round out the top 15, still very close to each other in terms of audience.
Blake Shelton's "Drink On It" will blast into the top 20, past a stumbling Justin Moore and a quick-moving Lady Antebellum. Lady A might be red hot, but if so, Blake is white hot. With enough spaces opening up due to a few songs going recurrent, look for Scotty McCreery's "The Trouble With Girls" to round out the top 20, just ahead of Lee Brice and Tim McGraw.
Not too far behind Lee and Tim are a couple of fast-moving songs: Miranda Lambert's "Over You" and Rascal Flatts' "Banjo". Both songs are closing in on the top 20 in a hurry, after zooming past a struggling Billy Currington. Look for Kip Moore and Craig Morgan to pick up a few spots, while Faith Hill slides backward in what will be her last week on the chart. Brantley Gilbert and Chris Cagle should climb into the top 30.
After a slow start to the week, Lauren Alaina has rebounded, and should join Gloriana, Andy Gibson, and Casey James in setting new chart peaks. Closing in, however, are Josh Turner, the Zac Brown Band, and the Eli Young Band, as they should all surge into the top 40 this week. Wade Bowen also has a good chance at sneaking in, probably right at #40. Atkins (Rodney) and Adkins (Trace) continue to struggle, while The Farm's debut single "Home Sweet Home" hasn't yet caught on much. Look for Jason Aldean, Jana Kramer, and Ronnie Dunn to all move up several spots, while Alan Jackson could move into the top 50.
For new entries, Canaan Smith's debut single "We Got Us", Phil Vassar's "Don't Miss Your Life", and Thompson Square's "Glass" all seem like locks to debut. Steve Holy's "Until The Rain Stops" has a good chance to re-enter, but if Brent Anderson's "Amy's Song" doesn't re-bullet (and thus leaves), there will still be 1 spot left, and Eric Church's "Springsteen" should take it, after having been added to the playlist at KEEY Minneapolis this past week.
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dajire4
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Post by dajire4 on Jan 30, 2012 11:03:10 GMT -5
First of all, thanks as always for the analysis jhomes. Although I like the songs apparently leaving this week, I'm happy to finally see a much-needed housecleaning, it was about time. That will certainly give many of the songs in the 30ish range some space to move up a couple of slots and as you mentioned, songs like Georgia Peaches or Wanna Make You Love Me will find new chart peaks. I hope they keep on going up, though, and not just slide back to their older positions next week. Anyway, Brad, Hunter, Faith and maybe Uncle Kracker too should also follow in the steps of the songs leaving since their songs seem to be pretty much done and just accumulating weeks in chart. Finally, I hope T2 debuts at last because lately I've been hookep up to their new single, even though I didn't like it much at first. So, glad to see movement in the charts, you all have a good week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2012 13:25:27 GMT -5
^Thanks!!
Well, it definitely looks like it will be Eric Church's "Springsteen" getting that final spot...it got played 10 times on KEEY Minneapolis this past week, and that should be enough to get it to chart.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Jan 30, 2012 14:33:45 GMT -5
jhomes87---anyway you think Sara stays on? Her loss on Mediabase this week was very minimal...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2012 16:14:48 GMT -5
jhomes87---anyway you think Sara stays on? Her loss on Mediabase this week was very minimal... No chance. Ok, we'll go with about 0.1% chance. Normally, her loss of 595k might be enough to grant her a grace week, but she already got one last week, on the 2/4 chart. MHCTYN slipped a spot to #22 with a 162k loss, and lost its bullet on Billboard. A 2nd straight drop, even if it was only 10k, would send a 34-week old song recurrent. And I don't see any way how her 595k Medibase loss could've translated to breaking even on Billboard. So yes, I'm 99.9% certain that she'll be leaving.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Jan 30, 2012 18:17:54 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "You" Chris Young Greatest Gainer No. 24 "Banjo" Rascal Flatts Hot Shot Debut No. 53 "We Got Us" Canaan Smith Debut No. 57 "Don't Miss Your Life" Phil Vassar Debut No. 58 "Touch" Josh Abbott Band Debut No. 60 "Glass" Thompson Square
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2012 18:56:58 GMT -5
^Thanks. Well, it looks like I should've stuck with my guess from last night, that the Josh Abbott Band would debut, and hold off on Eric's debut 'til next week. Otherwise, about what I expected! I'm gonna guess that Steve Holy managed to re-enter at #59, but it could be someone else, too.
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Post by luvhonkytonk on Jan 30, 2012 19:06:26 GMT -5
Thanks jhomes. I always enjoy reading your chart comments.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2012 17:09:35 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 predictions for the 2/18 Billboard chart:
1-2) The Band Perry - "All Your Life" 1-2) Chris Young - "You" 3-4) Luke Bryan – “I Don’t Want This Night To End” 3-4) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 5) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 6) Eric Church – “Drink In My Hand” 7) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 8) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” 9-10) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” 9-10) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 11-12) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 11-12) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 13) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 14-15) Hunter Hayes – “Storm Warning” 14-15) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 16-17) Brad Paisley – “Camouflage” 16-17) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 18) Justin Moore – “Bait A Hook” (last week) 19) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 20-21) Rascal Flatts – “Banjo” 20-21) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 22-23) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 22-23) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 24) Billy Currington – “Like My Dog” 25) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 26-27) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 26-27) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 28) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 29) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 30) Zac Brown Band – “No Hurry” 31-32) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 31-32) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 33-34) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 33-34) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 35-37) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 35-37) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 35-37) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 38) Trace Adkins – “Million Dollar View” 39) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 40-42) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” 40-42) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 40-42) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 43) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 44-46) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” 44-46) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 44-46) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 47-48) Alan Jackson – “So You Don’t Have To Love Me Anymore” 47-48) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 49-50) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 49-50) Canaan Smith – “We Got Us” 51-52) Thompson Square – “Glass” 51-52) Neal McCoy – “A-Ok” 53-56) Katie Armiger – “Scream” 53-56) Phil Vassar – “Don’t Miss Your Life” 53-56) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” 53-56) Eric Church – “Springsteen” [NEW!] 57) Josh Abbott Band – “Touch” 58) Steve Holy – “Until The Rain Stops” 59) Thomas Rhett – “Something To Do With My Hands” [NEW!] 60) JT Hodges – “Goodbyes Made You Mine” [NEW!]
Going Recurrent: Zac Brown Band's "Keep Me In Mind", Faith Hill's "Come Home", and Kevin Fowler's "That Girl"
Comments:
Another close battle is shaping up for #1 this week. Last week, Chris Young's "You" narrowly edged ahead of Luke Bryan's "I Don't Want This Night To End". Chris wasn't quite done, though, as he's continued slowly gaining this week, now eclipsing the 43 million mark on Mediabase and likely to top 40 million on Billboard, a rare feat. What's even more incredible is that we could have a 2nd song over 40 million on Billboard this week, as The Band Perry is getting a strong weekend push and may be able to sneak past Chris. Luke only got 1 week at #1 on Billboard, but 2 weeks at #1 on Mediabase. Chris has already secured the Mediabase #1 this week, but might not get that 2nd week on top of Billboard, if TBP squeaks past. With TBP co-hosting Lon Helton's CC-USA this weekend, and simply being on Republic Nashville (part of Big Machine), I'll say they have one more big update tomorrow and win the race for Billboard's #1 by a hair. Give them a 51% chance, and Chris a 49% chance.
Ok, now that that's all cleared up...time to look elsewhere. Keith Urban continues to move up strongly and should take over #1 once Chris/TBP clear out. That could mean the 2/25 chart, a week from tomorrow, though the 3/3 chart seems a bit more likely at this point. Kenny has rebounded somewhat, and will take Eric Church's top 5 spot, but "Reality" is still quite far behind "You Gonna Fly" and I'm having trouble picturing Kenny holding on long enough to reach #1 down the road. Meanwhile, Dierks and Martina have had big weeks, while Toby continues to slow down, as he approaches what I expect to be a 'glass ceiling' for "Red Solo Cup". King George has also slowed a bit, but will still move into the top 10 this week for the 85th time, as he continues to reel in Toby. Just outside the top 10 will be Jake Owen and Taylor Swift.
Hunter Hayes continues to hang in there, but it looks like Blake Shelton will move on by, and Lady A could, too. Brad seems likely to lose his bullet and will fall below both Blake and Lady A, and possibly even Montgomery Gentry. Since "Camouflage" will only be 19 weeks old, it is guaranteed this week on the chart, and also a 20th, but these next 2 charts could be the last 2 weeks for Brad. Justin Moore's 27-week old "Bait A Hook" has lost its bullet on Mediabase and could go recurrent this week, though I'm thinking he'll get a grace week from Billboard. Still, there's a decent enough chance that he could leave, which in turn would bump everyone from Scotty through the bottom of the chart up a spot.
Speaking of Scotty, he's had his best week yet, and should remain just ahead of Rascal Flatts, Lee Brice, Miranda Lambert, and Tim McGraw...at least for another week. Billy Currington is in the same predicament that Brad is in...he's on his way down, but will still appear twice more, since "Like My Dog" will only be in its 18th chart week tomorrow. Look for Casey James and the Zac Brown Band to move into the top 30 this week. Gloriana continues to show improvement, closing in on the top 30, though Jason Aldean is coming up fast, along with Josh Turner and the Eli Young Band. Rodney Atkins, Lauren Alaina, and Trace Adkins, all continue to move along very slowly. Love & Theft should enter the top 40 this week, with the last top 40 spot up for grabs among newcomers Dustin Lynch, Wade Bowen, and The Farm.
Jana Kramer continues to show promise, but Ronnie Dunn has had a slow week. Look for Alan Jackson to enter the top 50 this week. Canaan Smith could do so as well, as long as Kevin Fowler goes recurrent. Thompson Square should move up several spots this week. I'm expecting Eric Church's "Springsteen" to debut, possibly as the hot shot debut. Thomas Rhett's debut single "Something To Do With My Hands" also has a good chance to debut. The 3rd debut could go to JT Hodges' "Goodbyes Made You Mine", although Tyler Farr's "Hot Mess" could get in instead.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Feb 6, 2012 18:03:38 GMT -5
Billboard Highlights for 2/18/12
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "All Your Life" The Band Perry Greatest Gainer No. 19 "Banjo" Rascal Flatts Hot Shot Debut No. 52 "Springsteen" Eric Church Debut No. 58 "Something To Do With My Hands" Thomas Rhett
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2012 17:55:38 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 Predictions for the 2/25 Billboard chart.
1) The Band Perry – “All Your Life” 2-3) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 2-3) Chris Young – “You” 4) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 5) Luke Bryan – “I Don’t Want This Night To End” 6) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 7) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” 8) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 9) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 10) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” 11) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 12) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 13) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 14) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 15) Rascal Flatts – “Banjo” 16-17) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 16-17) Brad Paisley – “Camouflage” [last week] 18) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 19) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 20) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used to Be” 21) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 22) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 23) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 24) Zac Brown Band – “No Hurry” 25) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 26) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 27) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 28-29) Billy Currington – “Like My Dog” [last week] 28-29) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 30) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 31) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 32-33) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 32-33) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 34) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 35) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 36-38) Alan Jackson – “So You Don’t Have To Love Me Anymore” 36-38) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” 36-38) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 39-41) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 39-41) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” 39-41) Trace Adkins – “Million Dollar View” 42-43) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 42-43) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 44-45) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 44-45) Eric Church – “Springsteen" 46-47) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 46-47) Thompson Square – “Glass" 48) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 49-51) Phil Vassar – “Don’t Miss Your Life” 49-51) Canaan Smith – “We Got Us” 49-51) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” 52) Josh Abbott Band – “Touch” 53-54) Katie Armiger – “Scream” 53-54) Thomas Rhett – “Something To Do With My Hands” 55) Kelly Clarkson - "Mr. Know It All" [NEW!] 56) Tyler Farr – “Hot Mess” [NEW!] 57) Easton Corbin – “Loving You Is Fun” [NEW!] 58-59) Neal McCoy – “A-Ok” (last week) 58-59) Luke Bryan – “Drunk On You” [NEW!] 60) Steve Holy - "Until The Rains Stops" (last week)
Going Recurrent: Eric Church - "Drink In My Hand", Hunter Hayes - "Storm Warning", Justin Moore - "Bait A Hook"
Comments:
The Band Perry's "All Your Life" will hang on to a 2nd and final week at #1, with Keith Urban's "You Gonna Fly" coming up strongly and likely to take over the top spot next week. Dierks Bentley's "Home" has caught fire as it closes in on the top 5. Martina McBride's "I'm Gonna Love You Through It" is also doing pretty well, but might still be 2 weeks away from the top 5. George Strait has picked up the pace a bit again, and will finally move past Toby Keith's "Red Solo Cup", which appears to have hit the end of the line. Jake Owen should move into the top 10 and also pass Toby, with Taylor Swift closing in and maybe having a slight chance at the top 10, but I'll say she has to wait 'til next week.
Blake Shelton continues to cruise, and is closing in on Taylor. Montgomery Gentry should move up to #14, and Rascal Flatts' "Banjo" continues its torrid pace and should round out the top 15, passing Brad Paisley's nose-diving "Camouflage". Miranda Lambert should gain a few spots this week, Scotty McCreery will bounce back into the top 20, and Tim McGraw's "Better Than I Used To Be" should also find its way into the top 20, thanks to Eric Church, Hunter Hayes, and Justin Moore all going recurrent from the top 20.
Some "turnaround" on the chart in recent weeks has really benefited some newer artists trying to catch a break. Kip Moore is one of those, as he should move up several more spots this week and will likely be just one notch away from his first career top 20 hit. Craig Morgan will take "This Ole Boy" and his label, Black River Entertainment, to new heights, as the single should follow Kip up towards the top 20. Brantley Gilbert continues to do well, also. Look for the Zac Brown Band and Jason Aldean to each jump up several spots--they'll likely round out the top 25. Billy Currington's "Like My Dog" is plummeting quickly now and will spend just one more week in the top 30 before going recurrent (same goes for Brad's "Camouflage"). Gloriana's "(Kissed You) Good Night" will likely enter the top 30 this week, and Josh Turner's "Time Is Love" could also get in, probably right at #30.
The Eli Young Band, Jana Kramer, and Alan Jackson are on the move. Both Jana and Alan should surge into the top 40 this week, with the EYB being closer to the top 30. Rodney Atkins and Lauren Alaina continue to hang in there, and both have picked up the pace a bit, but with no shortage of competition, they still have more work to do to climb into the top 30. Dustin Lynch should move into the top 40 this week with his debut single "Cowboys And Angels". Ronnie Dunn will likely be battling with Trace Adkins' struggling "Million Dollar View" for the last top 40 spot. Eric Church's "Springsteen" should leap up several spots toward the top 40, while Wade Bowen's "Saturday Night" continues to struggle.
Tyler Farr's debut single "Hot Mess" should enter the chart this week, and Easton Corbin will also likely debut with his new single "Loving You Is Fun". Also look for Kelly Clarkson's to debut on Hot Country Songs with "Mr. Know It All". Lastly, I think Luke Bryan's "Drunk On You" will chart early, as it was added at KEEY Minneapolis last week. Neal McCoy and Steve Holy could drop off, but I'll guess that each gets one more week on. If Neal, Steve, or perhaps Sugarland does fall off, look for someone like JT Hodges, The Dirt Drifters, or James Wesley to take their place.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Feb 12, 2012 18:12:36 GMT -5
^ So Kelly Clarkson doesn't have a chance to chart then? I thought she had around .700M audience?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2012 18:19:21 GMT -5
^ So Kelly Clarkson doesn't have a chance to chart then? I thought she had around .700M audience? Whoops! Thanks for catching that. I made my predictions yesterday morning and posted them at CCT before we'd found out "Mr. Know It All" was getting airplay...so I just copied them from CCT and pasted them here. But, I edited Kelly in now. I went a little conservative on my guess...she could be somewhere in the 51-54 range if she winds up with 800k+.
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Kanenrá:ke
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she left her briquettes out in typical heaux fashion.
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Feb 13, 2012 1:05:43 GMT -5
^ So Kelly Clarkson doesn't have a chance to chart then? I thought she had around .700M audience? Whoops! Thanks for catching that. I made my predictions yesterday morning and posted them at CCT before we'd found out "Mr. Know It All" was getting airplay...so I just copied them from CCT and pasted them here. But, I edited Kelly in now. I went a little conservative on my guess...she could be somewhere in the 51-54 range if she winds up with 800k+. You're Welcome :) but one more edit you can make is this isn't Kelly's first solo appearance on the Country Chart, her first single "A Moment Like This" charted at #58 when she won Idol.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Feb 13, 2012 17:00:27 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "All Your Life" The Band Perry Greatest Gainer No. 24 "No Hurry" Zac Brown Band Hot Shot Debut No. 55 "Hot Mess" Tyler Farr Debut No. 57 "Drunk On You" Luke Bryan Debut No. 59 "Mr. Know It All" Kelly Clarkson Debut No. 60 "Goodbyes Made You Mine" JT Hodges
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2012 3:19:34 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 predictions for the 3/3 Billboard Chart:
1) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 2) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 3) Chris Young – “You” 4) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 5) The Band Perry – “All Your Life” 6) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” 7) Luke Bryan – “I Don’t Want This Night To End” (last week) 8-10) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 8-10) Jake Owen - "Alone With You" 8-10) Taylor Swift - "Ours" 11) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 12) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 13-14) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” 13-14) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 15) Rascal Flatts – “Banjo” 16) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 17) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 18) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 19) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 20) Zac Brown Band – “No Hurry” 21) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 22) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 23) Brantley Gilbert - "You Don't Know Her Like I Do" 24) Craig Morgan - "This Ole Boy" 25) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On" 26) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 27) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 28) Eric Church – “Springsteen” 29-30) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 29-30) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 31-32) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 31-32) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 33) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 34) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” 35-36) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 35-36) Alan Jackson – “So You Don’t Have To Love Me Anymore” 37) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 38) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” 39) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 40) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 41-42) Thompson Square – “Glass” 41-42) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 43) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 44-45) Trace Adkins – “Million Dollar View”(last week) 44-45) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 46) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 47-48) Luke Bryan – “Drunk On You” 47-48) Phil Vassar – “Don’t Miss Your Life” 49-51) Canaan Smith – “We Got Us” 49-51) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” 49-51) Thomas Rhett – “Something To Do With My Hands” 52-53) JT Hodges – “Goodbyes Made You Mine” 52-53) Katie Armiger – “Scream” 54) Josh Abbott Band – “Touch” 55) Tyler Farr – “Hot Mess” 56-60) Kelly Clarkson – “Mr. Know It All” 56-60) Easton Corbin – “Lovin’ You Is Fun” [NEW!] 56-60) Sugarland (with Matt Nathanson) – “Run" (RE) 56-60) The Dirt Drifters - "There She Goes" [NEW!] 56-60) Hunter Hayes - "Wanted" [NEW!]
Going Recurrent: Brad Paisley's "Camouflage", Billy Currington's "Like My Dog", Neal McCoy's "A-Ok", and Steve Holy's "Until The Rain Stops"
Comments:
Following a 2-week stay at #1, The Band Perry's "All Your Life" will feel the hangover resulting from the needed push to get there, and should fall all the way down to the bottom of the top 5. Look for Keith Urban's "You Gonna Fly" to make a strong grip on the top spot, as Kenny Chesney limps up to #2. Kenny could maybe follow Keith at #1, but even with a big push, it would seem to be a daunting task. Dierks Bentley should easily move into the top 5, and appears to be the more likely successor to Keith, but again, Kenny is still also a possibility. Martina should move up to #6, while George Strait will have his hands full trying to fend off strong competition from Taylor Swift and Jake Owen.
Toby Keith's "Red Solo Cup" has peaked at #9 and is falling. It will still get this week and one more on the chart before it goes recurrent, though. But, with RSC on the way down, look for Blake Shelton and Lady Antebellum to step closer to the top 10. Montgomery Gentry is still holding tough but remains a few weeks away from having a chance at the top 10 while Rascal Flatts, Miranda Lambert, and Lee Brice all close in. Tim McGraw should soar past Scotty McCreery, while the new Zac Brown Band single "No Hurry" should jump into the top 20, with Jason Aldean's "Fly Over States" right behind.
Kip Moore, Craig Morgan, and Brantley Gilbert are all looking pretty strong but will have to wait just a bit longer to move into the top 20 with the ZBB and Jason set to move on past this week. Look for several new songs to move into the top 30, led by Josh Turner's "Time Is Love". Eric Church's "Springsteen" is off to a hot start and should also move into the top 30, along with the Eli Young Band's "Even If It Breaks Your Heart". Rodney Atkins, Andy Gibson, and Gloriana are also in the mix, with all the songs (including Eric and the EYB) projected to land roughly in the 4.5 to 4.7 million range.
Newcomer Dustin Lynch is off to a pretty strong start and should jump up a few more spots this week. Both Alan Jackson and The Farm have also had pretty good weeks and should close in a bit on some of the songs ahead. Look for Love & Theft and Wade Bowen to move back into the top 40, while Trace Adkins falls out of the top 40 in what will be his last week on the chart with "Million Dollar View". Thompson Square's "Glass" should jump up a few spots, and Luke Bryan's "Drunk On You" should also pick up several spots and will probably move into the top 50. Phil Vassar, Thomas Rhett, and JT Hodges also all stand to gain some ground.
With a couple songs set to go recurrent this week, there will be a few openings near the bottom of the chart. In weeks past, we had several songs clamoring for one or two spots. Now there will be several openings but I'm having trouble finding anyone who wants to debut. Easton Corbin could sneak in--his song will no doubt go up fast, but it doesn't appear as if it will begin to get substantial airplay until next week or so. The Dirt Drifters are also a possibility, and the Sugarland/Matt Nathanson duet "Run", which has been lurking around getting some unsolicited airplay, could make yet another re-entry. I picked Hunter Hayes' new single "Wanted" as another possibility, though that's really just a blind guess. Brad, Billy, and Neal will definitely be going recurrent, but maybe Steve Holy can re-bullet and make it so that there are only 3 openings? Anyway, with all that said, I'm not even sure that Easton, The Dirt Drifters, or Sugarland/Matt Nathanson will be able to generate enough airplay to chart. But I picked them anyway. Things could line up just right so that DJ Miller's (who? that's what I thought too) "Between Sundays" could chart, and perhaps even The Band Perry's version of "The Star Spangled Banner". Last week's numbers seem to indicate it could, but I don't really believe that "The Star Spangled Banner" will chart, and so I picked some new songs instead.
FYI, as a reminder, the chart won't be published until Tuesday evening, since Monday is President's Day.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Feb 19, 2012 10:02:26 GMT -5
Thanks for the President's Day reminder!
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Feb 19, 2012 11:23:22 GMT -5
I never know a new artist before Jhomes but this time I guess I do -- DJ Miller's got a pretty good voice (if I remember right), and the lyrics to Between Sundays are unusually good for country radio material. He had a song called Whatever It Takes but I'm unable to tell you how long ago -- I think it was in late 2010. Again, well sung and pretty well written.
This should have a better chance to chart than anybody's version of the national anthem, unless of course Zac Brown Band or Carrie Underwood decided to release a version and take it all the way to #1.
And let's see if Sugarland/Nathanson can get their 4th chart week at #60. They have a shot.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2012 18:31:03 GMT -5
^I have heard of DJ Miller but I just found it odd that he has a good chance to chart (and that's not a knock against him at all), since he's on a small indie label. It's just stating how interesting it is that there aren't too many songs (there aren't any really) clamoring to debut this week, so the audience required to be in those bottom few spots could be quite low (below 200k, even). I can't remember the last time it was so low...I'm pretty sure David Nail's first week with "Let It Rain" (he came in at #60, dropped off for a week, and then re-entered and began climbing) might've been below 150k, so that would be the last time.
But I was just thinking that for someone like DJ Miller to chart (regardless of song quality--I'll go check it out, btw), a lot of things would have to fall into place just right for him. Same goes for TBP's version of "The Star Spangled Banner". Could it really chart? Yep, it certainly looks like it.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Feb 20, 2012 17:24:52 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "You Gonna Fly" Keith Urban Greatest Gainer No. 22 "Fly Over States" Jason Aldean Hot Shot Debut No. 58 "Between Sundays" DJ Miller Debut No. 59 "Lovin' You Is Fun" Easton Corbin Debut No. 60 "The Star Spangled Banner" The Band Perry
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2012 17:38:20 GMT -5
^Looks like I shoulda gone with the logic and said DJ Miller and TBP's "Star Spangled Banner" would chart. Maybe Sugarland did, too, at #56 or #57...audience has gotta be way low down there. I wouldn't be surprised to see #60 down around 150k. Could be closer to 200k I guess (TBP had 190k last week) but still, that's very, very low. Easton probably didn't get much airplay at all (that'll start happening this week). I was about to guess that maybe Keith Urban's "For You" (from the Act of Valor Soundtrack) would debut, since it got played on Lon Helton's countdown yesterday, and it wouldn't take much to debut in that 56-60 range. But it sounds like Lon may not have played the full song, so I'm not sure if it counted as a spin or not.
Jason at #22...hmm. I thought he'd be able to get to #21. Maybe Kip Moore somehow held him off.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Feb 22, 2012 1:00:06 GMT -5
You know while it seemed like nobody was trying to chart this week next week should be interesting, there's only going to be a few openings, but it seems like there should be some good competition to get on.
Carrie Underwood Good Girl James Wesley Walking Contradiction Hunter Hayes Wanted The Dirt Drifters There She Goes Jason Jones You're My Favorite Kellie Pickler 100 Proof (just a hunch) Sugarland Run Marlee Scott Train Wreck Kid Rock Care Bill Gentry This Letter
Those should all be within fighting distance and it should be interesting to see who'll chart.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2012 1:14:49 GMT -5
Carrie will get in, no doubt (and I know you knew that but I'm just saying she's THEE for-sure-debut). Top 40 for sure, possibly Top 30, even with only 4 full days of airplay (Thursday-Sunday).
We'll see who goes recurrent. Luke Bryan's "I Don't Want This Night To End" might be able to lose enough to drop out of the top 10 and go recurrent, but we'll need more data to make a guess there. Trace Adkins' "Million Dollar View" will be leaving for sure, and I think it's quite likely that Katie Armiger's "Scream" will also go recurrent.
I don't think Steve Holy, DJ Miller, or TBP's "Star Spangled Banner" will have long chart runs. Steve somehow re-bulleted after big drops in the 2 previous weeks and Curb didn't even include his song in their full page ad. DJ & TBP really only got in this week because no one else wanted to. I don't see how Marlee, Kid Rock, or Bill Gentry will get in...no new station adds and none of them even has 100k in total audience. A Sugarland re-entry is a slight possibility, but it's not receiving any push to radio so I kinda doubt it. I'll hold off on Kellie Pickler's eventual debut yet, since we still haven't heard about a radio release just yet. Jason Jones' song is getting airplay on only a couple stations, so I'm not sure if he'll gain enough. Maybe though. And The Dirt Drfiters don't have 100k, and only got 1 add this week, so I don't see how they debut next week, unfortunately.
So let's say Trace and Katie leave. Carrie is in. I'll say Hunter debuts early. That takes care of the 2 spots vacated by Trace & Katie. And I think DJ and TBP will both get knocked off. I'll say one of those spots goes to James Wesley. Not sure who the other would go to. David Nail? Aaron Lewis? Joanna Smith? Maybe even Kix Brooks, since his song is up on AllAccess now.
Carrie's gonna have the highest debut, then I think Hunter and James are in line. Maybe Steve Holy and DJ Miller can both hang on or something. I suppose "The Star Spangled Banner" could as well. Those songs aren't going anywhere though.
There won't be a shortage of songs in the coming weeks--lots of good stuff lined up.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2012 13:12:35 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for the 3/10 Billboard Chart.
1) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 2) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 3) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 4) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It" 5-7) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 5-7) Jake Owen - "Alone With You" 5-7) The Band Perry - "All Your Life" 8) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 9) Chris Young – “You” [last week] 10) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 11) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 12) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 13) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 14-15) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 14-15) Rascal Flatts – “Banjo” 16) Toby Keith – “Red Solo Cup” [last week] 17) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 18) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 19-20) Zac Brown Band – “No Hurry” 19-20) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 21) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 22) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 23) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 24) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 25) Eric Church – “Springsteen” 26) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 27) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 28) Carrie Underwood - "Good Girl" [NEW!] 29) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 30-31) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 30-31) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 32) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 33-34) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 33-34) Lauren Alaina - "Georgia Peaches" 35) Alan Jackson – “So You Don’t Have To Love Me Anymore” 36-37) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” 36-37) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 38) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” 39) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 40-41) Thompson Square – “Glass” 40-41) Luke Bryan – “Drunk On You” 42-43) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 42-43) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 44) Phil Vassar – “Don’t Miss Your Life” 45-46) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 45-46) Thomas Rhett – “Something To Do With My Hands” 47) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” 48-49) Canaan Smith – “We Got Us” 48-49) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 50) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” 51-53) Kelly Clarkson – “Mr. Know It All” 51-53) Josh Abbott Band – “Touch” 51-53) JT Hodges – “Goodbyes Made You Mine” 54-55) Easton Corbin – “Lovin’ You Is Fun” 54-55) Tyler Farr – “Hot Mess” 56) Hunter Hayes – “Wanted” [NEW!] 57-60) James Wesley – “Walking Contradiction” [NEW!] 57-60) Steve Holy – “Until The Rain Stops” 57-60) DJ Miller – “Between Sundays” 57-60) Jason Jones – “You’re My Favorite” [NEW!]
Dropping Off: Luke Bryan's "I Don't Want This Night To End", Trace Adkins' "Million Dollar View", Katie Armiger's "Scream", and The Band Perry's "The Star Spangled Banner"
Comments:
Both Kenny Chesney and Dierks Bentley are charging hard towards the top, and both have a chance they could claim it, but so far Keith Urban has held strong, remaining almost completely level all week. I'm expecting Keith's "You Gonna Fly" to start falling a bit more this weekend, but he'd have to really fall or have a really big final push from either Kenny or Dierks to lose out on the top. So, as it stands now, I'm predicting "You Gonna Fly" to hang on to #1 for a 2nd and final week, finishing maybe 800k to 1 million AI's ahead of both Kenny and Dierks. Keith's Capitol labelmate Dierks still seems like the likely successor, which would be bad news for Kenny, meaning he'd likely get stuck at #2. Can't write him off completely yet, but I think Keith will manage to hang on to the #1 this week, with Dierks having the best shot next week.
Martina McBride should move into the top 5 this week, all the way up to #4 as both Chris Young and The Band Perry drop below. Not sure if Martina can get any higher, though. Her bullet has really dropped and she's hardly gained any audience all week, so she could be very close to peaking and #4 could be as high as she gets. Can't write her off, though, since she's under the Big Machine umbrella. After falling hard last week, The Band Perry has eased off a bit this week, possibly because it's been announced they won't have a new single out until the spring. The bottom has fallen out on Chris Young's "You", however, and he should fall all the way from #3 toward the bottom of the top 10.
Jake Owen is on a roll and could sneak into the top 5 this week if he's able to edge ahead of The Band Perry. We've seen quite a battle between Jake's "Alone With You" and Taylor's "Ours", and it looks like they'll catch and pass King George's "Love's Gonna Make It Alright" this week. This could be tough on George's #1 chances if he's unable to compete with the hot digital sellers Jake and Taylor. Blake Shelton has cooled in recent weeks but he'll enter the top 10 this week and seems likely to hit #1 after Jake/Taylor/George sort themselves out.
Lady Antebellum should move up to #11, with Montgomery Gentry just behind and at a new peak of #12. Not sure if they can make it into the top 10, but they got some help this week with Rascal Flatts slowing down quite a bit. However, Lee Brice is on a roll and looks likely to pass Rascal Flatts, the week after he just passed Miranda. It'll be interesting to see if Montgomery Gentry can sneak into the top 10 before they're passed by the trio of Lee, Miranda, and Rascal Flatts, who all look like strong #1 candidates. Anyway, Toby Keith's "Red Solo Cup" will continue downward and spend its last week on the chart. Look for Jason Aldean's "Fly Over States" to fly into the top 20 this week, right on the heels of the Zac Brown Band's "No Hurry".
Kip Moore will probably need one more week to make the top 20, but his "Somethin' 'Bout A Truck" is looking pretty strong and selling well--a future top 10, perhaps? Brantley Gilbert, Craig Morgan, and Chris Cagle have all had pretty good weeks and should pick up some ground, though Eric Church's "Springsteen" is coming up fast. Look for Carrie Underwood's highly anticipated new single "Good Girl" to storm on to the chart, with a strong top 30 debut. The Eli Young Band's "Even If It Breaks Your Heart" will also move into the top 30 this week.
Jana Kramer continues to show positive signs, and Lauren Alaina has had a pretty good week as well, but she'll still be a few weeks away from the top 30. Love & Theft's "Angel Eyes" has also had its best week yet, but will still find the journey to be slow. Look for Thompson Square's "Glass" and Luke Bryan's "Drunk On You" to battle it out for the last top 40 spot. Phil Vassar and Thomas Rhett should pick up a couple spots, while Wade Bowen's "Saturday Night" has apparently peaked and should fall several spots this week. Easton Corbin's "Lovin' You Is Fun" should move up a few spots toward the top 50. With Trace Adkins' "Million Dollar View" and Katie Armiger's "Scream" set to join Luke Bryan's "I Don't Want This Night To End" in going recurrent, I'm expecting debuts from Hunter Hayes' "Wanted" and James Wesley's "Walking Contradiction". Jason Jones' "You're My Favorite" may also debut, though it's possible that Katie manages to re-bullet and stays on, or perhaps The Band Perry's "The Star Spangled Banner" could get another week on.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Feb 27, 2012 18:48:56 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "You Gonna Fly" Keith Urban Hot Shot Debut/Greatest Gainer No. 30 "Good Girl" Carrie Underwood Debut No. 57 "Wanted" Hunter Hayes Debut No. 58 "New To This Town" Kix Brooks Featuring Joe Walsh
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