allow that
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Post by allow that on Sept 27, 2003 23:39:03 GMT -5
Wow look at Sarah go... her bullet was in the 300's last week, cooled off a little to the low 200's earlier this week. Now she's at +413. Pretty good for the slow moving Hot AC chart. Radio is obviously glad to have her back.
Can she keep it up though? The top of Hot AC has been pretty male dominated since Sarah was last on the scene. Only Sheryl's poppy "Soak Up The Sun" and Avril's two actual manufactured Pop songs made it to the top recently.
So can Sarah pull through? I think she can.
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j
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Post by j on Sept 27, 2003 23:54:08 GMT -5
Naturally.
Go Sarah. Sheryl Crow's First Cut might give her some competition tho, as does John Mayer and matchbox 20. But I bet matchbox 20 will falter (they're already faltered several times), plus Liz Phair and Live are dark horses in this race.
What's "actual manufactured"? ;)
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Chromeozone
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Post by Chromeozone on Sept 28, 2003 8:04:52 GMT -5
Well, when you take into consideration that it's a very strong song from a Hot AC favorite who is making her big comeback, I would have to say she has a very good shot at #1.
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kingLUKE22
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Post by kingLUKE22 on Sept 28, 2003 12:44:08 GMT -5
Can someone post the Mediabase link for HOT AC that shows the day by day update? This is a race I'd like to watch!
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Sept 28, 2003 12:46:30 GMT -5
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Sept 28, 2003 19:58:48 GMT -5
Well, when you take into consideration that it's a very strong song from a Hot AC favorite who is making her big comeback, I would have to say she has a very good shot at #1. The same could have been said for Matchbox Twenty's Disease, Dido's White Flag, and even (reaching way back) Hootie & The Blowfish's I Will Wait. Yes, these songs performed/are performing well, but not #1 status. The initial big gains might just be because it is Sarah McLachlan and she has not been on the radio for so long. However, I am not ready to commit myself to saying that she will be a future #1. There is A LOT of competition for the top spot right now in the top 10...
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Sept 28, 2003 20:21:59 GMT -5
The same could have been said for Matchbox Twenty's Disease, Dido's White Flag, and even (reaching way back) Hootie & The Blowfish's I Will Wait. Yes, these songs performed/are performing well, but not #1 status. But none of those acts, except Matchbox 20, are as big as Sarah. Hootie may have been, but "I Will Wait" wasn't following up a hit album... it was following up a disappointment. Dido only had one Top 10 hit up til now. And even "Disease" wasn't coming after a long break... it came only 1 year after "Last Beautiful Girl" was released. Sarah's return is a bigger deal times 10 than any of your examples. I do agree with you that it's not a guarentee that she'll hit #1 though. There IS a ton of competition. It would be exciting if 4 or 5 songs hit #1 at hot AC between now and year's end, each spending a more moderate amount of time at the pole position... but granted its Hot AC, they'll pick their #1 and stick with it.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Sept 29, 2003 9:38:50 GMT -5
But none of those acts, except Matchbox 20, are as big as Sarah. Hootie may have been, but "I Will Wait" wasn't following up a hit album... it was following up a disappointment. Dido only had one Top 10 hit up til now. And even "Disease" wasn't coming after a long break... it came only 1 year after "Last Beautiful Girl" was released. Sarah's return is a bigger deal times 10 than any of your examples. I just wanted to clairfy some of my points... Musical Chairs followed up "Fairweather Johnson" which produced the hits Tucker's Town, Sad Caper, & Old Man & Me, all of which (I bet) went at least top 20 and probably top 10 on Hot AC. Before that was Cracked Rear View, which definitely produced hits. I probably would not consider "Last Beautfiful Girl" as the last appearance for Hot AC fans. Yes, it did make top 20, but for most listeners, you have to go back to Mad Season in the spring of 2001 for the last big hit for MB20. That means they were absent from the Hot AC market with a big hit for almost 1.5 years. Dido did have two top 10s and one top 20 hit from her last album. That is not that much less than Sarah McLachlan, who (I think) only had 4 or 5 top 20 hits.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Sept 29, 2003 10:01:44 GMT -5
But still... Hootie was considered a novelty act by then and no one was really interested in them or anticpating the release of their new album. None of the 3 songs you mention were huge hits either. Most people wouldn't even recall them now.
1.5 years is still not very long at all to be gone between albums.
While successful, I don't think anyone was expecting Dido's return single to rush up to the top. In fact, I'll say I'm actually surprised that she's doing as well as she is (happy, but surprised). She only had one major hit and a minor follow-up from her last album.... she's more on par with Natalie Imbruglia than Sarah.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Sept 29, 2003 10:50:28 GMT -5
While successful, I don't think anyone was expecting Dido's return single to rush up to the top. In fact, I'll say I'm actually surprised that she's doing as well as she is (happy, but surprised). She only had one major hit and a minor follow-up from her last album.... she's more on par with Natalie Imbruglia than Sarah. Here's Dido's Hot AC history (from what I remember): Here With Me - #10 Thankyou - #1 (don't know how many weeks) Hunter - #20 Does anyone have Sarah McLachlan's Hot AC history? I know Angel hit #1...
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Sept 29, 2003 11:18:54 GMT -5
Does anyone have Sarah McLachlan's Hot AC history? I know Angel hit #1... "Pocession" 19 "Building A Mystery" 4 "Sweet Surrender" 10 "Adia" 3 "Angel" 1 "I Will Remember You (live)" 2
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Hot AC Archiver
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Post by Hot AC Archiver on Sept 29, 2003 14:29:52 GMT -5
Here's what I have for Sarah on the Hot AC chart...
Posession: #19 for 2 weeks in 1997 Building a Mystery: #4 for 5 weeks in 1997 Sweet Surrender: #7 for 3 weeks in 1998 Adia: #6 for 2 weeks in 1998 Angel: #1 for 8 weeks in 1999 I Will Remember You (Live): #2 for 3 weeks in 1999 Ice Cream: #12 in 1999
Here's what I have for Dido:
Here with Me: #20 in 2000 Thankyou: #1 for 7 weeks in 2001 Hunter: #17 in 2001
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EvanJ
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Post by EvanJ on Sept 29, 2003 17:19:29 GMT -5
Number 17 makes more sense for "Hunter" than Number 20 because I think it made mid-10s on Billboard. When I started following music with the VH1 Countdown, "I Will Remember You (Live)" was on it along with songs like "I Want It That Way," "Black Balloon," and "Scar Tissue." Sugar Ray: "Someday" spent along time in the 7-10 range before moving up.
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Radical347
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Post by Radical347 on Sept 29, 2003 21:34:39 GMT -5
This song sounds almost exactly like every one of Sarah McLachlan's songs from her previous albums, except for "Sweet Surrender." I don't think it'll get to #1, due to sameness. I see it peaking around #5-7.
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j
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Post by j on Sept 29, 2003 23:14:08 GMT -5
Here's what I have for Sarah on the Hot AC chart... Posession: #19 for 2 weeks in 1997 Building a Mystery: #4 for 5 weeks in 1997 Sweet Surrender: #7 for 3 weeks in 1998 Adia: #6 for 2 weeks in 1998 Angel: #1 for 8 weeks in 1999 I Will Remember You (Live): #2 for 3 weeks in 1999 Ice Cream: #12 in 1999 Thanks for the CH, but shouldn't that be "Ice Cream (Live)"?
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Post by tico on Oct 6, 2003 18:36:05 GMT -5
This song sounds almost exactly like every one of Sarah McLachlan's songs from her previous albums, except for "Sweet Surrender." I don't think it'll get to #1, due to sameness. I see it peaking around #5-7. To me it sounds like the Nina Gordon song "Tonight And the Rest of My Life".
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j
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Post by j on Oct 6, 2003 22:39:31 GMT -5
To me it sounds like the Nina Gordon song "Tonight And the Rest of My Life". Not really. The Nina Gordon song is "louder". Sarah's is "slower".
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jond7699
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Post by jond7699 on Oct 23, 2003 1:33:38 GMT -5
i predict dido is going to become the next number one. but fallen has a good chance to. both songs are really well written and well performed song. they both deserve to be huge hits. hopefully this new album from sarah will push into superstar category.
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jimmy74747
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Post by jimmy74747 on Oct 23, 2003 9:23:52 GMT -5
"Here Without You" and "Bright Lights" will keep this out of #1.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Oct 30, 2003 17:40:01 GMT -5
WHY IS THE BULLET ONLY +53?! I'm sure it'll pick up again but even still... this is a little too close for comfort.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Oct 30, 2003 17:54:48 GMT -5
At this rate, Sarah will be lucky to get to the top 5...
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Post by thisbeautifulmess on Nov 1, 2003 0:32:04 GMT -5
I'm sure it will get close to top 5. There are quite a few droppers ahead of it.
Even more disturbing will be it not charting on pop.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Nov 1, 2003 0:36:03 GMT -5
I'm sure it will get close to top 5. There are quite a few droppers ahead of it. Even more disturbing will be it not charting on pop. It only has +7 right now.... which made me jump out of my skin at first, but now that i think about it.. it's no big deal. I notice many HAC songs slow down or even lose their bullets once they first enter the Top 10, and then take off again a few weeks later (think Liz Phair, Live, and especially Dido since she came close to losing her bullet so many times, and is now a contender for the next #1). I think Sarah will be okay.
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Post by thisbeautifulmess on Nov 1, 2003 0:40:34 GMT -5
It only has +7 right now.... which made me jump out of my skin at first, but now that i think about it.. it's no big deal. I notice many HAC songs slow down or even lose their bullets once they first enter the Top 10, and then take off again a few weeks later (think Liz Phair, Live, and especially Dido since she came close to losing her bullet so many times, and is now a contender for the next #1). I think Sarah will be okay. Exactly. I don't think it's yet reached it's peak.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Nov 15, 2003 18:13:49 GMT -5
Here are #'s 5, 6, and 7 at Hot AC:
5 5 MATCHBOX TWENTY Unwell 2689 2812 -123 21.525 8 6 SARAH MCLACHLAN Fallen 2680 2594 86 17.580 10 7 SHERYL CROW First Cut Is The Dee... 2673 2464 209 18.346
So Sarah is at #6, 9 spins behind #5. She will pass "Unwell" by tomorrow... perhaps her only chance into the Top 5 unless she picks up again (which I'm sure she eventually will).
Sheryl is at #7, 7 spins behind Sarah and 16 spins behind "Unwell." This is kind of interesting.
Basically, tomorrow morning MB20 and Sheryl will likely switch positions, leaving Sarah stuck at #6 just as she's about to get into the Top 5. This is VERY frustrating, even though I do love Sheryl and her song. I just really want Sarah to do well so radio pays attention to the second single!
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Post by singingsparrow on Nov 15, 2003 22:17:18 GMT -5
Here are #'s 5, 6, and 7 at Hot AC: 5 5 MATCHBOX TWENTY Unwell 2689 2812 -123 21.525 8 6 SARAH MCLACHLAN Fallen 2680 2594 86 17.580 10 7 SHERYL CROW First Cut Is The Dee... 2673 2464 209 18.346 So Sarah is at #6, 9 spins behind #5. She will pass "Unwell" by tomorrow... perhaps her only chance into the Top 5 unless she picks up again (which I'm sure she eventually will). Sheryl is at #7, 7 spins behind Sarah and 16 spins behind "Unwell." This is kind of interesting. Basically, tomorrow morning MB20 and Sheryl will likely switch positions, leaving Sarah stuck at #6 just as she's about to get into the Top 5. This is VERY frustrating, even though I do love Sheryl and her song. I just really want Sarah to do well so radio pays attention to the second single! I believe that "Fallen" can peak at #5, but won't go any higher unless she picks up on CHR/Pop somehow. Then she may earn some well-deserved longevity for her long absence. I can see her hang there long enough, waiting for Dido to fall from her #4 peak. I think we can count on "First Cut Is The Deepest" by-passing "Fallen" and jumping to #5, if not tomorrow, immediately the beginning of the new week. Of course we also can't forget that Hot AC has a tendency for a second single to surpass the performance of a first single and it is not uncommon. It has happened for matchbox twenty, Uncle Kracker, Sixpence None The Richer and John Mayer recently and I can see "Stupid" released as a second single and performing quite strong. She'll likely not see a hit the size of "Angel" again, but I think "Afterglow" is far from over in its promotion. Sincerely, Noah Eaton
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Nov 16, 2003 0:24:36 GMT -5
This is my second favorite song by her and I hope she can do well! Who knows, I think it defnitely deserves #1!
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j
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Post by j on Nov 18, 2003 22:58:10 GMT -5
With a block of bullets ahead of her, Sarah may have to settle for #6 unless (1) Dido loses spins or (2) Sarah starts picking up more spins or (3) she maintains current average her spin total for the next few months.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Nov 24, 2003 21:55:39 GMT -5
Sarah just passed Sheryl for #5 which looked pretty unlikely up til a few days ago. The Top 4 is pretty old, and unless "Bright Lights" gets to #1 and sticks around for a long time, I think "Fallen" will have a clear path to #1 in about 4 or 5 weeks. IF "Here Without You" gets to #1, I don't see it staying there very long.
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Post by singingsparrow on Nov 25, 2003 12:28:14 GMT -5
Sarah just passed Sheryl for #5 which looked pretty unlikely up til a few days ago. The Top 4 is pretty old, and unless "Bright Lights" gets to #1 and sticks around for a long time, I think "Fallen" will have a clear path to #1 in about 4 or 5 weeks. IF "Here Without You" gets to #1, I don't see it staying there very long. I'm beginning to believe that Sarah McLachlan just might make it to #1 after all! :) Both 3 Doors Down and matchbox twenty have lost their bullets currently, and I don't think either one of these artists, should they happen to go #1, will have a strong run. 3 Doors Down may go to #1 by default of Santana's losses, but would only hold there for a few weeks, and unless Dido picks up again due to her CHR/Pop gains, Sarah may get away with #1. Sincerely, Noah Eaton
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