Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2014 14:34:18 GMT -5
Wow, it looks like this one is done. Down 310k and 34 spins today, with a bullet of only 27. After the huge sales and relatively quick ride up the charts--especially for a new guy--it doesn't look like Warner Bros. is going to be able to get this to #1. They tried to wait out everybody--David, Eric, and Luke--and it back-fired. Aldean caught up to them and his song has more momentum now. Cole stalled for too long in the 2-4 range and now it doesn't appear that he'll be able to resume his climb. Basically, Cole burned through a lot of top 5 weeks and when a song has been top 5 for so long, it's hard to suddenly move up. Jason, on the other hand, has continued a steady climb through the top 10.
I am stunned. Maybe this can rebound yet but I don't know. I just thought this would have no trouble getting to #1, but UMG really wreaked havoc here, pushing Eric Paslay to the MB #1 and continually delaying Luke's run at the top. Both Cole and Luke had ads out in Country Aircheck Monday night--Luke's saying "#1 and still going strong!" and Cole's simply saying "Power Up!" but both songs are down over 300k today, and it looks like Jason is the front-runner to finish the week at #1, probably on both charts.
It is just crazy to come this far and then to not make it past #2. I know a lot of new artists take a long time--30 to 40 weeks or more--to hit #1 with that 'breakthrough' hit, but this is Cole's debut and it needed only 21 weeks to crack the top 10. But in the end it looks like they just waited around too long in the top 5 while the other newbies had their "power up" pushes...and so Cole idled too long and ran out of gas.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 12, 2014 14:47:47 GMT -5
^ Looks like the Paslay push to #1 has claimed another victim.
I too am surprised. It could pull off a rebound but right now I don't see it. Jason is going too strong right now and like you said, Cole has been stuck inside the top 5 for too long. I don't see how I can possibly despise UMG pushing "Friday Night" to #1 anymore than I already did, but it seems that the effects of that maneuver along with holding Luke's song back is still messing up the natural order that was supposed to happen.
Chart manipulation in 2014, gotta love it...
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Markus Meyer
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Post by Markus Meyer on Feb 12, 2014 17:49:47 GMT -5
Man, that sucks for Cole. Without the Paslay push, this would have been an easy #1.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Feb 13, 2014 0:57:49 GMT -5
I'm shocked, but honestly, it's nice to see a song actually peak at #2 or #3 for a change.
No shame in a top 3 debut single.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Feb 13, 2014 8:03:34 GMT -5
It's not done. Up 314k in audience, 49 new spins from yesterday, and a healthier bullet of 108.
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layne
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Post by layne on Feb 13, 2014 10:06:52 GMT -5
Everyone gets to #1 unless your song is a thought provoking ballad. This will make it at least on MB I feel.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 13, 2014 12:00:32 GMT -5
It's not done. Up 314k in audience, 49 new spins from yesterday, and a healthier bullet of 108. Yes, but Jason is still ahead of him. "When She Says Baby" is at #2 on Mediabase with Luke still on top (Barely a bullet though). I just don't see how Cole can hang on till the end of next week to squeeze in there. 108 spin increase is still quite a drop off compared to what he was gaining in the past few weeks. To me once Jason leap frogged him, it was game over. The only glimmer of hope is some more manipulation by Warner to get him there. This time I don't see it happening. But the Paslay debacle has certainly made me less confident with my predictions.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2014 13:14:26 GMT -5
It's not done. Up 314k in audience, 49 new spins from yesterday, and a healthier bullet of 108. It would seem as if I spoke too soon. I should know better than to go off one day's update. Still, I can't figure this one out. Down 300k one day (which is usually a big enough shift to indicate a peak position), then up 300k the next day. Gets into the top 40 very quickly for a new artist and then top 30 shortly afterward. Catches up to David Nail's song which had charted a full 8 weeks prior to Cole's debut. Goes up through the top 30 and top 20 quite quickly, in tandem with Nail, often trading places (seriously, I think the 2 songs traded places at least 5 or 6 times). Cole and David obviously remained neck and neck basically the rest of the way. And then? Cole lets David get to #1. Ok, fine. Trying to stay in front of Luke Bryan's song was never going to happen. The Paslay push came out of nowhere and it didn't seem to bother Warner Bros. at all. Now they've got the "power up" ads out but Jason Aldean jumped ahead and he's only pulling further away. So I suppose Cole is still in this thing, but unless he can find some big gains this weekend, I can't seem him topping either chart by the end of the weekend. There's still a pretty big gap back to Lady A, but at this point I'm starting to get the sense that this week is 'now or never' for Cole, and if he can't get there, then we could see 2 weeks for Jason before "Compass" hits the top.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 13, 2014 13:48:26 GMT -5
I think the "Drink A Beer", "Whatever She's Got", "Friday Night" scenario has made most gun shy. Usually this particular situation I would say Jason gets two weeks on top and Cole gets shut out, which I'm still going to predict, but to be honest we've seen so much change in how the top of these singles charts work the past two or three years that if I've learned one thing, it's to expect the unexpected.
Either way Jason being ahead of Cole is a big blow to his #1 chances. But crazier, and stupider things have happened....I give you "Friday Night" as the poster child example.
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Feb 14, 2014 20:56:53 GMT -5
Cole will get his #1 on the Billboard Hot Country Songs charts next week. His airplay is basically tied with "Drink a Beer" and "When She Says Baby", but "Chillin It" is ahead of both in iTunes sales.
Will there be a #1 party if it tops the HCS chart (but peak at #2 on both Mediabase and BB Airplay)? I'm very curious how the label will behave in such situation.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2014 22:44:50 GMT -5
Cole will get his #1 on the Billboard Hot Country Songs charts next week. His airplay is basically tied with "Drink a Beer" and "When She Says Baby", but "Chillin It" is ahead of both in iTunes sales. Will there be a #1 party if it tops the HCS chart (but peak at #2 on both Mediabase and BB Airplay)? I'm very curious how the label will behave in such situation. It's a very interesting situation, that's for sure. Cole is fighting to hang in there at radio but it just looks like this song is running on fumes now...they've been waiting in the 2-4 range for several weeks now while the other labels have all made their "power up" moves. I am sure that Warner Music Nashville will count the #1 on Hot Country Songs, though, if they indeed get there. They would probably like the radio #1 on at least one of the charts (BB Airplay or MB), though. The iTunes stream is no doubt helping the sales of this one (and it has already been a strong seller). But it could still be a very close race with "Drink A Beer", in terms of the HCS race. Luke sold 45k last week and Cole sold 35k, but now Cole is ahead as his album release approaches. According to yesterday's mid-week BCU, Luke was #6 in Streaming and Cole was #7, so that's a close race as well. When there's going to be a close race on HCS, you can always tell that it's going to be a close race...problem is, you can't tell how close, because we can't see daily sales or streaming numbers, nor do we know how they are weighted with respect to airplay.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Feb 15, 2014 13:03:30 GMT -5
The label may just be ready to move on from "Chillin' It" too. The next single, as stated by cole in the story behind the song video on Roughstock, is "Hope You Get Lonely Tonight."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2014 21:45:36 GMT -5
The label may just be ready to move on from "Chillin' It" too. Could be, but at the same time I have a hard time believing this. We've seen nearly every label in town go to ridiculous lengths to get a song to #1 on Mediabase. And I feel like I can count on one hand the number of times in the last couple of years that we've seen songs stall out at #2 or #3. This case is especially odd because out of the few songs that didn't quite make it to #1, this one looked like a lock for a #1 the entire time. My guess, as to what happened, is that Warner Bros. simply got out-foxed here by the UMG promo teams...David got his #1 easily, then came the ridiculous push for Eric Paslay, and now "Drink A Beer" has been #1 for the last 2 weeks but really it's been at #1 airplay levels for 4-5 weeks now and there was simply no way that Cole was ever going to pass that one. "Chillin' It" has been biding its time, waiting for Luke and everyone else to get out of the way, but it just looks like Cole has been chilling too long...songs can float in the 2-4 range forever. They either have to go up or down sooner or later, and right now it looks like this one is running on empty.
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blueguitar
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Post by blueguitar on Feb 17, 2014 11:56:19 GMT -5
How is this song still hanging on? Are we going to see a "power up" ad for this tonight??? I'm over it! (not that I ever liked it at all) I just don't think this is deserving of a #1. Stupid!
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layne
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Post by layne on Feb 17, 2014 12:03:22 GMT -5
How is this song still hanging on? Are we going to see a "power up" ad for this tonight??? I'm over it! (not that I ever liked it at all) I just don't think this is deserving of a #1. Stupid! How is this less deserving than Jason Aldeans song?
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blueguitar
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Post by blueguitar on Feb 17, 2014 12:08:09 GMT -5
How is this song still hanging on? Are we going to see a "power up" ad for this tonight??? I'm over it! (not that I ever liked it at all) I just don't think this is deserving of a #1. Stupid! How is this less deserving than Jason Aldeans song? I just personally do not like this everyone gets a turn thing on the MB chart. Also, I do not like this song. I listen to the Highway a lot and they have overplayed this song so much I can't stand it.
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layne
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Post by layne on Feb 17, 2014 12:43:13 GMT -5
Personal preferences aside, this song is definitely worthy of being #1. It has been a huge hit.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Feb 17, 2014 17:55:41 GMT -5
Whether it gets to #1 or not, this one's one of 2013/2014's biggest hits and more proof how strong SiriusXM is at being a 'farm team' of sorts (or proving ground) for new artists to make their case for why they should be paid attention to. I have a feeling he will surprise MANY with how many copies the album sells in its first week, It could even end up at #1 next week, depending on how far Eric Church falls from week 1 to week 2 on the charts (and if Cole could somehow sell more than 100k). I think that is entirely possible given who his friends are (Luke, FGL, etc.) and how well his pre-sales already are (30k or so on iTunes).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2014 20:13:16 GMT -5
Whether it gets to #1 or not, this one's one of 2013/2014's biggest hits and more proof how strong SiriusXM is at being a 'farm team' of sorts (or proving ground) for new artists to make their case for why they should be paid attention to. I have a feeling he will surprise MANY with how many copies the album sells in its first week, It could even end up at #1 next week, depending on how far Eric Church falls from week 1 to week 2 on the charts (and if Cole could somehow sell more than 100k). I think that is entirely possible given who his friends are (Luke, FGL, etc.) and how well his pre-sales already are (30k or so on iTunes). I was just going to say, I think this album is going do well in its opening week...likely out-selling most other newbies' debut albums by quite a bit. I listened to a few songs so far and not all were bad, but he's just got too much of the bro-country 'swagger' for me to appreciate him as an artist. But that's just my personal preference -- doesn't change my belief that this album will see good sales. "Chillin' It" seems unlikely to hit #1 on either of the radio charts, but stranger things have happened (looking at you, Eric Paslay), so if Cole can hang around for one more week or so, he's still got a shot, however small that may be. But like kml567 first pointed out, I think there's a good chance that this song could be #1 on Thursday's Hot Country Songs chart. It's virtually even with "Drink A Beer" in airplay and it's been out-selling that one for most of the past week on iTunes. Since the new methodology went into effect in October 2012, there have only been 2 songs that have topped Hot Country Songs without going #1 on Country Airplay (and obviously there have been more airplay #1's that didn't go #1 on HCS, blocked by the likes of "Cruise" and "That's My Kind Of Night"). "That's My Kind Of Night" is one of the 2 songs that topped HCS without going #1 on Country Airplay, with the other song being Taylor's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together". Luke peaked at #2 on the airplay chart although he did spend a week at #1 on Mediabase. And of course Taylor didn't come within a sniff of #1. "Chillin' It" could become the 3rd song to top HCS without ever spending a week atop the airplay chart.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Feb 19, 2014 19:54:28 GMT -5
WOW, this song may have a good chance of now topping both Billboard and Mediabase this weekend as Cole gained 94 spins versus a loss of 13 spins by Jason on Mediabase, also Cole gained .674 mil in audience with Jason actually losing .147 mil in audience today alone. I checked Billboard Real Time Tracker and Jason is still #1 but the question is how long? Jason only leads by 24 spins to Cole and his audience lead is declining too. I think if Cole has another good update tomorrow like this or slightly not as great but Jason loses a little more again tomorrow then I think there's a good chance we may see Cole Swindell be #1 on Mediabase tomorrow morning and be trending at #1 on Real Time Tracker. I do see this hitting #1 now because Lady Antebellum is still so far back in spins and audience and Luke is now #3 and falling but Lady Antebellum has yet to pass Luke who is still 300 spins and 2.5 mil in audience ahead still of Lady A.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2014 20:11:41 GMT -5
Yeah, this is likely to be #1 on both charts this weekend, meaning that we could see the rare Billboard-only #1 for Jason's "When She Says Baby". I wouldn't be surprised if Cole is #1 on the RTT in a day or two.
Very weird end to the run here. Cole sat around and waited behind the 3 UMG artists, and it looked like the song stalled, especially when Jason just breezed by. And you'd think BBR would want Jason to get the Mediabase #1 as well but it looks like Warner Bros. wants it more.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Feb 20, 2014 10:05:18 GMT -5
#1 on Hot Country Songs, up from #3 last week.
Now #1 on Mediabase as of today.
Jason is still #1 on RTT but Cole continues to outgain him but Jason is trying to gain again.
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Markus Meyer
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Post by Markus Meyer on Feb 20, 2014 10:06:46 GMT -5
So Jason will get the rare BB only?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2014 12:33:21 GMT -5
Well, a bit of a surprise for me: Jason is still tracking #1 on the Billboard RTT. Cole has gained 2.3 million on Mediabase over the last 5 days and Jason has gained 1.1 million. Jason did start the week with a 1.2 million lead on Billboard so it's still holding out but it must be very close. Cole is comfortably ahead on Mediabase though so the MB #1 will be official for him tomorrow but he only has today and tomorrow to try to overtake Jason on Billboard. Otherwise, Jason will get a 2nd week at #1 on Billboard without having spent a single week at #1 on Mediabase.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 22, 2014 15:07:10 GMT -5
I am really surprised this was able to get to #1 on Mediabase. It's multiple weeks at #4, then seemingly running on fumes last week while Jason past him was to me a slam dunk this would have it's bullet lost by now. But what do ya know, Warner has seemed to find it's second wind to push this to #1. Now I have much less of a problem with this reaching #1 than "Friday Night", but it certainly makes me shake my head at how all these songs are able to miraculously find that extra gear to get at the top. I used to be good at predicting the top of these charts, but I am now 0 for 3 in determining the future lately.
First I though "Drink A Beer" would see a 3 weeks stay at #1, but then "Whatever She's Got" just continued to gain in strength and eclipse Luke in the nick of time. Then we had that atrocity of a #1 in "Friday Night" who I originally thought would die at #6 or at least #4, but the manipulation God's granted another #1 wish to EMI. Now this scenario. "Chillin It" I do still believe is actually worthy of a #1 peak. It's sales and audience have been strong most of the way here. But it's numbers took a serious blow and it was passed by the much hotter Jason song. It's almost like after Warner saw that dip in spins, they said at the last moment "Hey, we never got to be #1". Kinda like a toddler crying that the first three kids got to have a candy but I got left out. I just wish that the one toddler (In this case "Chilin It") is taught that sometimes life ain't fair and you'll have to settle for a #2 peak, sorry.
But again, this is Mediabase 2014, so it is what it is.
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Feb 23, 2014 16:04:12 GMT -5
Well deserved #1 on Mediabase and Billboard HCS. First week album sales doing better than many of his peers. The front-runner for Best New Artist in the 2014-15 awards season.
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Post by Spacey_Kacey on Feb 23, 2014 16:26:35 GMT -5
Well deserved #1 on Mediabase and Billboard HCS. First week album sales doing better than many of his peers. The front-runner for Best New Artist in the 2014-15 awards season. Eh, I'd be pretty surprised if he is in serious contention. They usually reward pretty good artists. Musgraves, Hayes, Band Perry, ZBB are the last 4. Kip Moore and Brett Eldredge are the good front runners and if they are going to go in this type of direction, I'm sorry to remind everyone, but Florida Georgia Line is still eligible, and they'd be far and away ahead of Swindell. ACMs are a different story with fan voting, so I completely ignore that one though I suppose he could be competitive there. You also got Thomas Rhett probably against him in that one. Would still be tough.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2014 22:36:13 GMT -5
Wow, I just noticed that this song went from 37 plays last week at KAJA in San Antonio to 128 spins this week, a bullet of +91 at that one station alone.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Feb 23, 2014 22:58:33 GMT -5
Wow, I just noticed that this song went from 37 plays last week at KAJA in San Antonio to 128 spins this week, a bullet of +91 at that one station alone. OMG! I would shoot my radio.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Feb 23, 2014 23:15:34 GMT -5
Wow, I just noticed that this song went from 37 plays last week at KAJA in San Antonio to 128 spins this week, a bullet of +91 at that one station alone. OMG! I would shoot my radio. So they played this song almost once an hour for most of the week? Ouch.
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