U.S. Album Sales Hit Historic Lows: 3.970 million

[areyoureadytojump]

Here we go...

www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/digital-and-mobile/5631721/us-album-sales-hit-historic-lows

U.S. Album Sales Hit Historic Lows

By Ed Christman, New York | August 02, 2013

U.S. album sales have hit new historic lows over the last five weeks marking the longest consecutive stretch in the SoundScan era that the industry has gone without scanning more than 5 million units. And, over the last two weeks, album sales hit consecutive record lows. Which begs the question, is it all due to the summer doldrums, streaming's rise, dwindling catalog sales or all three?

For the week ending July 28, U.S. album sales totaled 4.68 million the lowest weekly total since the inception of Nielsen SoundScan in May 1991. The previous record low was only the prior week when sales were 4.71 million units.

The industry had been flirting with the under five million unit album sales weeks since 2010 when, for the week-ending May 30, it dipped beneath that floor for the first time with 4.98 million scans. In 2010, the industry had four weeks under 5 million units, while there were two weeks under that floor in 2011, and three weeks in 2012.

This year already, there are nine weeks under the 5 million units album sales mark, with the last five weeks marking the longest consecutive period the industry has gone without scanning more than 5 million units.

While album sales are down, streaming revenue is up, which begs the question the industry has been wrestling with for the last two years: is streaming is cannibalizing album sales? An issue, until recently, industry data analysts and top executives argued wasn't the case, and some attributed to declining catalog sales.

Others blame the album sales drop on a lousy release schedule this time of year and the general summer months’ doldrums. Sales in summer tend to decline because kids are out of school and they tend to spend more time outdoors. Consequently, the release schedule is also lighter because artist and their managers prefer to hold album releases for the fourth quarter, when there is more in-store traffic. The only other time of the year when sales are just as slow is in the first quarter, when releases schedules are weaker.

More recently, some industry executives began changing their tune about the possibility of streaming cannibalization after they saw digital song sales decline more in the second quarter than in the first at the same time that digital album sales slowed (see our mid-year Nielsen SoundScan report). Analysts have not yet found a way to measure cannibalization and are looking for new ways to measure whether or not it is occurring. As one analyst put it, just because he couldn't prove cannibalization through analysis, he couldn't definitively say it's not happening.

While analysts continue reviewing the data, the decline in album sales this year can be attributed at least partially to physical sales' downward trend.

"This is the year that CD sales bottom is falling out" at Newbury Comics, says the retail chain's CEO Mike Dreese. So far this year, CD sales are down 14.1% to 88.8 million from the 103.3 million scanned in the same time period in the corresponding period last year, according to Nielsen SoundScan. But digital album sales aren't faring too well lately either. In the first four weeks of the second quarter, the digital album growth slowed to a 1.9% increase after growing at a 10.4% pace in the first quarter. So far in the first four weeks of the third quarter, digital album sales are actually down 0.9%.

While that decrease could be attributable to a slow release schedule, industry SoundScan analysts say the real weakness lies in catalog album sales, which year-to-date are down 8.8% to 79.7 million units. One industry label analyst said that if the bottom fell out of anything, it’s the $5 CD. Albums at that price point are no longer performing like they did in 2011 and 2012. And there are only so many titles that can generate enough volume to make the lower pricing profitable. He claimed the majors have exhausted that supply of albums and when music fans are looking for that bargain price point at Walmart, Target or Best Buy, they are not finding an new titles they want.

"We haven't refreshed our offering in titles at that price point in months," the source says. "While it's still a formidable amount of units sold, sales of the $5 CD will continue to fall." That executive said that at its peak, $5 CDs were accounting for up to 15% of weekly catalog unit sales.

On the good news front, this executive added, at least steaming growth this year continues to be strong -- all of which depends on your point of view.

[Deleted]

Catalog was more of a force last year than this year.

That also lies in the release schedule. There have not been as many anniversary, legacy, special edition albums as there have been in prior years

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

When they count these, don't they only count the titles that appear in the Top 200 of the album chart? I read that once and then it kind of made sense. I think over the years, there have been fewer monster blockbuster albums but more moderately selling albums. So less albums reach that certain milestone but more albums actually sell? If that makes sense.

Though speaking from personal experience, I might also suggest that album sales dwindle more as stores themselves close. My favourite record store downtown closed back in January and while there are other places around to buy music, they're not as accessible for me so while I have bought CDs this year, I haven't gotten as many as I probably would have. I'm almost wondering if I might go the Amazon route for buying CDs soon or if I'll even make the inevitable switch to digital-only.

[Deleted]

I did go to digital-only this year, with the exception of rare cases where the physical CD made more sense (Target exclusive - etc.)

For me, it was a space consideration. Buying 100-200 CDs per year for years tends to create space issues and I mostly listen to digital now anyway.

[Enigma.]

"Is streaming cannibalizing album sales?"

Well duh? And paid streaming should be counted towards the album chart imo.

[CookyMonzta]

Why am I not surprised? Because in 2000 every last one of the top 200 selling albums of that year sold at least 500,000. Now we're lucky if we get 30 or 40 albums going gold in a calendar year. and I suspect it may be even fewer today.

In 2000, the average of the top 10 selling albums was over 6 million. In 2010, barely 2 million. At such a rate of decline, I predicted back in 2010 that the average of the top 10 selling albums for 2019 would be around 800,000 to 850,000, with the top seller at around 1.5 million. So, I'm not surprised that the average weekly sales has dropped to under 5 million. I wouldn't be surprised if, by this time next year, maybe 2 years from now at most, the average drops to under 4 million.

[imbondz]

Why would we buy a ton of albums anymore with so much access to legal free music. I did just download from Amazon U2's 1980-1990 Best of so add $5 to that total.

[Enigma.]

If a person buys Spotify Premium (or an equivalent service) for $10 per month why wouldn't those listens counted towards the chart? It's much the same than downloading a random album for $2.

The only question here is where's the line of listening to the album vs. listening just tracks on it. Would be good to count 3 listens by one person = 1 sale for example. Don't think that's impossible to do technically.

People just don't own music anymore, they buy services and listen to music more than ever.

[Jay D83]

I 'rent' my music through Rhapsody. My playlist is synced to my phone, my computer, and my rhapsody app on my TV and home stereo. There's no need to buy music anymore.

[areyoureadytojump]

Another low week:

4,712,000 albums sold

[areyoureadytojump]

www.theguardian.com/music/2013/nov/02/is-music-album-dead-us-worst-ever-sales-figures

Is the album dead? Katy Perry, Miley Cyrus and Elton John hit by dramatic US sales slump

As artists speak out over rise in streaming, industry tries to adapt to new habits of digital consumers

Edward Helmore in New York
The Observer, Saturday 2 November 2013

Katy Perry's Prism sold more copies on the US album chart than the next eight acts combined.

Lou Reed's album sales may have risen 607% in the US last week, one of many tributes to New York's rock 'n' roll poet of the streets, but that did little to dispel the black mood that has descended on the music business.

The US music industry, the world's largest market, has experienced a drop in album sales from 800m in 2002 to 316m a decade later. But industry analysts say that long-term trend doesn't account for a sudden drop-off. It seems that the 10-song, artist-statement format that originated with the advent of the 33⅓ long player in the late 1940s could itself be nearing the end of the line.

Last week US album sales, as measured since 1991 by Nielsen Soundscan, fell to a new low of 4.49m at the time of year when the industry typically rolls out its big acts before the holiday sales boom. Katy Perry's No 1 album Prism sold less than 300,000 copies, but that was still more than the next eight titles combined – among them Pearl Jam and Drake.

Despite energetic twerking and taunting Sinéad O'Connor on Twitter, Miley Cyrus's Bangerz – No 1 two weeks ago – fell to fourth place with 43,000.

Even acts with loyal, older and often technologically challenged audiences are finding sales hard to come by. Elton John and Paul McCartney's releases failed to find any commercial footing, with Sir Elton's The Diving Board selling just 11,116 in its third week of release.

"The album is dying in front of our very eyes," industry commentator Bob Lefsetz wrote. "Everybody's interested in the single, and no one's got time to sit and hear your hour-plus statement."

Analysts blame Spotify, YouTube and other cheap or free streaming services for broad declines that include a 4% drop in digital downloads – the first since Apple's iTunes was launched a decade ago. Despite opposition to Spotify from songwriters, who say streaming services pay so poorly they threaten what remains of a meagre living, streaming now contributes 16% of the industry's revenues.

Album sales, analysts say, are further threatened by fragmenting of genres, the poor quality of music and shopping chains carrying a limited selection of discounted releases to bring in customers.

To understand the shift to a market dominated by singles and streaming, the industry has introduced a new measure, TEA (track equivalent albums) which counts 10 track sales as one album. If the TEA measure is used, Bangerz, which only sold 245,000 traditional copies in its first week, rises to 750,000 sales.

If consumers are tiring of buying single-track downloads – 1.1bn a year are sold at present – and turning to streaming services, up 59% on last year, according to the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), is that good or bad for the album?

Ed Christman, of the industry publication Billboard, said there was no definitive data to show streaming was cannibalising traditional sales, but added that in terms of revenue it took 2,000 streams to equal one album.

He said: "Is the album going away? People have been speculating about that forever. There are those that think the album should go away and plenty of artists who still believe in the album." If albums are still selling 300m copies, it's unlikely to be abandoned. "It's up to the artists to decide what happens to it."

One school of thought holds that the decline of the album is related to the introduction of the CD. Musicians were able to put out 80 minutes of music – far more than the LP, limited to 21 minutes a side – making for often self-indulgent releases. Others argue that music released in physical form should be abandoned. But as other media have discovered, physical formats still command a premium in both value and prestige.

"Consumers are fickle beasts – they want choices," said Christman.

Artists may be sceptical – former Talking Heads frontman David Byrne has pulled as much of his back catalogue out of Spotify as possible, while Radiohead's Thom Yorke calls it "the last desperate fart of a dying corpse". But the record industry is getting behind streaming.

"A variety of access models are collectively generating a healthy amount of revenue for labels and artists," says Jonathan Lamy, an RIAA spokesman. "When you add up revenues from all of these models, they represent real revenues now and prospects for a bright future."

But it's still to be seen whether streaming can ever be as a profitable as albums. "You just don't know," said Christman. "It's like asking how big the universe is. Right now it's a small universe."

For Bob Lefsetz, the message to artists is straightforward – hype doesn't work, you have to connect to your audience even if that means only putting out one good track.

"You put out these albums and in almost every case, the public moves on in a matter of weeks! A few bought it, they heard it, and they're satisfied. The rest of the public is just waiting for a hit single ... they'll tap their toes and snap their fingers and ask, 'What else have you got?

[WolfSpear]

It'll eventually be a singles market, which is a shame.

Could be a good while before the whole thing tanks though.

[mluv]

But the digital singles is also in decline so that won't save the industry

I don't see the album going away especially for artists that don't get a lot of radio play or don't get hit singles but live off their album sales like a Mumford and Sons or for rap and hip hop stars like a Drake or a JayZ. Katy Perry is good at singing disposable catchy pop songs and maybe people just don't want to listen to an album of those. Promote music with less fluff and maybe it'll sell more. I'm curious to see how Lady Gaga and Eminem sell in comparison.


As for Elton John, selling 11,000 albums (after it's been out for a month) without having a hit single or even getting any radio airplay is great. He even said his latest album was not going to be commercial which is why most of the songs are just he and his piano. He's a multi millionaire who makes a ton from touring anyways.

[imbondz]

It's sad. But part of me believes the record industry deserves it.

I wish illegal downloading could be stopped. That's a huge part of the decline.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

So glad the emphasis is on releasing good songs instead of trying to force artists into making albums when most of the are far better off at making good songs....and record companies have a tendency to try to spread out hits across several albums. I'd rather people just download the songs they like and when they like them.

[chartfreak]

Isn't Billboard contributing by supporting streaming, etc?

[Deleted]

It is not illegal downloading. iTunes making the album available a-la-carte way back when as well as streaming, appear to be taking the biggest cuts into the album sale.

In the early 00's it would cost you 13.99 to get your 2-3 favorite songs on the album. Now it costs 2-4 dollars.

Now if you don't want to 'own' the music you don't have to and you can still listen to whatever you want.

In any case, I suggest that people are 'consuming' music now more than ever before, you just do not have to buy the whole album any more to do that.

[imbondz]

Illegal downloading has to be part of the problem. I gave my 16 yr old niece an iTunes card and her response was, 'you pay for music'? I was horrified.

[grandelf]

I do think that hardcore music fans, especially those who follow certain artists overestimate albums. In my experience when people want to hear music they never think in terms of albums, just a couple of songs, whether it is during driving, on public transport, at work etc. Most people don't have the time and patience to spend hours with albums, get to know the tracks etc. Mainstream music is generally about a few songs getting attention anyway, it's very few cases like Thriller when the whole album is in the spotlight and not just "the strongest tracks". Sure, illegal downloading hurt the business too but those who spend money on music will cherry pick the tracks and won't pay attention at the filler, regardless that it might not be filler at all.

[Deleted]

If everybody did illegal downloading you wouldn't see as many songs each year selling in the millions. Singles sales are so high, that it is possible to hit 1 million copies and never touch the Hot 100.

As streaming is starting to gain traction, single sales have topped out too.

I would agree that illegal downloading is a factor but it is hardly the biggest.

I still think the biggest reason for the album sales decline is iTunes itself. Why buy the whole album for 13 bucks when you are allowed to cherry pick the songs you want for a fraction of the price?

The up and coming factor is now streaming. You don't have to own it and have it take up valuable space on your ipod.

And of course illegal downloading is a factor.

[mluv]

The bubble for album sales had to burst as a lot of the labels have been living off the sales of their old time artists from the 70's, 80's and 90's and not taking as much chance with new artists. There's only so many best of albums that someone is going to buy. Streaming is going to take away some of that as why should you buy the latest greatest hits album when you could just make a playlist of all those songs you love. That's why the labels now have partial ownership in sites like Spotify--they're getting ready for the next wave in the way we get music and they aim to profit from it even if the artist themselves don't.

[forg]

I hope an album like Adele's 21 makes some noise again to liven up the album sales doldrums

[areyoureadytojump]

www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/retail/5869759/us-album-sales-volume-falls-to-new-low

U.S. Album Sales Volume Falls to New Low

By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles | January 15, 2014

U.S. album sales have again fallen to a new weekly low.

In the week ending Jan. 12, 4.25 million albums were sold according to Nielsen SoundScan, which began tracking music sales in 1991.

The previous SoundScan-era low was set in the week ending Oct. 27, 2013, when just 4.49 million albums were sold.

To compare, the SoundScan-era high for album sales in a single week came in late December of 2000, during the height of CD sales, when 45.4 million albums were sold in the week ending Dec. 24. (To put that figure in perspective, in all of 2013, there were 289.41 million albums sold. But in 2000, there were 785.14 million albums sold.)

It's normal to see soft sales figures in January every year -- as the market adjusts back to normal after the Christmas shopping season, and because there are few new major albums to drive sales. This week's top selling album, for example, is the "Frozen" soundtrack, with 86,000 sold.

While it's now common for album sales to fall below 5 million units in a week, this wasn't always the case.

Weekly volume didn't fall below 5 million in the SoundScan era until 2010, when, in the week ending May 30, album sales dropped to 4.98 million.

In 2010, there were a total of four weeks with under 5 million in sales. In 2011, that number shrunk to just two weeks, but then stepped back up to three weeks in 2012.

In 2013, things got really crazy, when there were 18 weeks where album sales dropped below 5 million.

With this week's sum about 250,000 units away from scraping 4 million, it would seem another low threshold is about to be reached.

[Agent Yoncé]

It's only going to get even worse.

[hitseeker.]

Adele, please hurry up with that album.

[areyoureadytojump]

^Along with Taylor Swift, Rihanna, Carrie Underwood, U2...

[Deleted]

Streaming being the primary way people consume music is inevitable. At least industry execs aren't fighting that like they tried to fight off the move to digital. It makes me wonder just how much album sales may decrease in the next decade, how they'll factor streams into certifications, and where music consumption could possibly go after streaming. Given current technology, it seems like that could be the last major format change.

[hitseeker.]

Jan 19, 2014 20:20:54 GMT -5 @jazzysoul47 said:

Streaming being the primary way people consume music is inevitable. At least industry execs aren't fighting that like they tried to fight off the move to digital. It makes me wonder just how much album sales may decrease in the next decade, how they'll factor streams into certifications, and where music consumption could possibly go after streaming. Given current technology, it seems like that could be the last major format change.

Doesn't the RIAA already count streamings for certifications or awards certifications based on streamings? I thought I had read something about that.

[Gary]

Digital has peaked. Physical product is in free-fall. It is only a matter of time for them to put album streams into the BB200

[Peaches. [Ch, r. is]]

Aug 2, 2013 9:58:52 GMT -5 Devil Marlena Nylund said:

When they count these, don't they only count the titles that appear in the Top 200 of the album chart? I read that once and then it kind of made sense. I think over the years, there have been fewer monster blockbuster albums but more moderately selling albums. So less albums reach that certain milestone but more albums actually sell? If that makes sense.

Though speaking from personal experience, I might also suggest that album sales dwindle more as stores themselves close. My favourite record store downtown closed back in January and while there are other places around to buy music, they're not as accessible for me so while I have bought CDs this year, I haven't gotten as many as I probably would have. I'm almost wondering if I might go the Amazon route for buying CDs soon or if I'll even make the inevitable switch to digital-only.

Store close because of low sales, not the other way around.