HITS: Who Will Rule?: One Direction 500k, Brit 150-200k

[Enigma.]

9. Josh Groban’s Noel (2007, 142K)
142k after five years since the release, crazy.

[badrobot]

Will Kelly's Christmas album have any original Christmas songs? We haven't really had a new long-lasting Christmas song since Mariah's All I Want... almost 20 years ago. Would love it if Kelly managed to be the next (but that's a tall order).

[c0ldasfire]

Aug 5, 2013 14:11:27 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Aug 4, 2013 22:54:15 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

I think Kelly Clarkson is going to do surprise. Wouldn't be surprised if her album sold 1-1.5million by the end of the year.

Is Kelly putting out a full album? I thought it was just an EP.

Stronger sold 1 million+. I doubt her new album/EP will top it.

How do you think Britney's new album will do?

[areyoureadytojump]

^Her last album did 777k. About the same for this one.

[Living Legend]

I think Britney can hit 1 million if she releases in November.

[areyoureadytojump]

My friend works at a label and once in a while he receives the New Release Schedule from Sony Records.

It lists all the upcoming releases with a first week estimate.

Now, we don't know how they compile the first week estimate. Sometimes they are exactly right, sometimes they are way off.

So take the estimates for what they are.

Aug 27

Avenged Sevenfold 159k
Big Sean 75k
Jessie J 50k
Goodie Mob 40k
Alabama & Friends 25k
Bob Dylan 20k

Sep 3

Nine Inch Nails 125k
Tamar Braxton 100k
Ariana Grande 85k
Jaheim 75k
John Legend 60k
Ashanti 60k

Sep 10

2 Chainz 200k
The Weeknd 135k
Keith Urban 135k
Sheryl Crow 40k
Janelle Monae 40k
Gloria Estefan 26k
Madonna dvd 15k

Sept 17

Jack Johnson 150k
Justin Moore 100k
MMG Vol 3 75k
Chris Young 70k
MGMT 40k
Avicii 35k

Sep 24

Drake 700k
Kings of Leon 150k
Sting 76k
Elton John 60k
Cher 50k

Sep 30

Justin Timberlake TBD
Lorde 100k
Nelly 50k

Oct 8

Miley Cyrus TBD


Oct 15

Pearl Jam 150k
Scotty McCreery 100k
Avett Bros. 90k
Mary J Blige Xmas 50k

Oct 22

Katy Perry 400k

Oct 29

Arcade Fire 200k
Kelly Clarkson TBD
Susan Boyle TBD

Nov 5

Celine Dion 150k
Avril lavigne 100k
Eminem TBD

Nov 11

Lady GaGa 400k

Nov 19

Hunger Games 2 Sdtk. 200k

Nov 25

One Direction TBD

TBD:

Beyonce
No mention of Britney Spears.
Mariah Carey's first week estimate is 80k.

[Wavey✨️]

Lord. There are going to Be some suprises.

[jgizzle89]

100k for Tamar? No way in hell.

I'm putting Gaga closer to 500k, but everything else looks just about right. I could see Drake maybe hitting 800k, but that's certainly on the high end of things.

[Love Plastic Love]

Thanks for posting-I always love seeing these estimates! I am sad a lot of the most interesting ones aren't posted though

[Deleted]

Célégénd.

[Khia]

60k for Ashanti? Based on what?

[Enigma.]

I'm interested in Austin Mahone's sales. He might really smash if everything goes well prior to the album release (October)

[chartfreak]

So they originally predicted Mariah to come in under Selena.

Gaga's first week is the one I am anticipating the most.

Hope Madonna would be able to make top 10 with low sales.

[Deleted]

100k for Avril? After her last album did less and she's flopping even worse with the singles this time?

[areyoureadytojump]

Aug 26, 2013 21:42:07 GMT -5 jgizzle89 said:

100k for Tamar? No way in hell.

I'm putting Gaga closer to 500k, but everything else looks just about right. I could see Drake maybe hitting 800k, but that's certainly on the high end of things.

The Gaga/Perry estimates are very conservative. We'll know more as we get closer to both release dates.

[areyoureadytojump]

Aug 27, 2013 6:19:49 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

So they originally predicted Mariah to come in under Selena.

Gaga's first week is the one I am anticipating the most.

Hope Madonna would be able to make top 10 with low sales.

Madonna is not going to make the Top 10 with just a digital album release.

[areyoureadytojump]

Aug 26, 2013 21:50:54 GMT -5 Khia said:

60k for Ashanti? Based on what?

Ashanti's last album opened with 86k. They are obviously not expecting much.

Maybe 40k?

[areyoureadytojump]

Aug 27, 2013 7:54:47 GMT -5 Codex said:

100k for Avril? After her last album did less and she's flopping even worse with the singles this time?

Remember that it's an early estimate. The release date is still 2 months away. I'm sure it will be revised.

[areyoureadytojump]

Aug 27, 2013 2:42:00 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

I'm interested in Austin Mahone's sales. He might really smash if everything goes well prior to the album release (October)

Who?? His name is not listed.

[areyoureadytojump]

I forgot this one:

November TBD

Rihanna

I'm disappointed we did not get figures for Justin Timberlake/Miley Cyrus/Eminem/One Direction.

[areyoureadytojump]

Aug 26, 2013 21:43:56 GMT -5 Love Plastic Love said:

Thanks for posting-I always love seeing these estimates! I am sad a lot of the most interesting ones aren't posted though

Like who???

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Katy 300k
Gaga 600k
Em 700k
Drake 400k

[ListenToItTwice]

This is the first time I've seen an actual date attached to the new 1D album :O

[Minor Scratch]

Here are some comparisons of predicted first week sales to actual first week sales from last years 4Q new release schedule. Couldn't get the whole list of numbers for each album, but I was thinking we could update it and maybe make a continuing list for 2013 as well just to see how accurate the predictions are.


August 14

2 Chainz: Prediction 100k, Actual 147K (47% higher)
Insane Clown Posse: Prediction 35k, Actual: 41k (17% higher)
Slightly Stoopid: Prediction 30k, Actual 18k (40% lower)
Yellowcard: Prediction 15k, Actual 21k (40% higher)
Kottonmouth Kings: Prediction 15k, Actual 9k (40% lower)

August 21

Trey Songz: Prediction 200k, Actual 135k (32.5% lower)
DJ Khaled: Prediction 45k, Actual 40k (11% lower)
Owl City: Prediction 30k, Actual 29k (3% lower)
10th Ave North: Prediction 30k, Actual 26k (13% lower)
The Darkness: Prediction 25k, Actual 9k (64% lower)
Lynyrd Skynyrd: Prediction 25k, Actual 18k (28% lower)

August 28

Tobymac: Prediction 50k, Actual 69K (39% higher)
Alanis Morissette: Prediction 40k, Actual 33K (17% lower)
Slaughterhouse: Prediction 40k, Actual 52k (30% higher)

September 4

Matchbox 20: Prediction 95k, Actual 96k (1% higher)
Melissa Etheridge: Prediction 40k, Actual 17k (57.5% lower)
Imagine Dragons: Prediction 40k, Actual 86k (115% higher)
Animal Collective: Prediction 35k, Actual 11k (68.5% lower)
Cat Power: Prediction 30k, Actual 23k (23% lower)

September 11

Dave Matthews Band: Prediction 275k, Actual 271k (1.5% lower)
Bob Dylan: Prediction 111k, Actual 101k (9% lower)
Avett Brothers: Prediction 65k, Actual 101k (55% higher)
Little Big Town: Prediction 45k, Actual 109k (142% higher)
ZZ Top: Prediction 25k, Actual 28k (12% higher)
DMX: Prediction 25k, Actual 17k (32% lower)
Kix Brooks: Prediction 20k, Actual 7k (65% lower)

September 18

Pink: Prediction 250k, Actual 281k (12% higher)
G.O.O.D.: Prediction 150k, Actual 216k (44% higher)
Muse: Prediction 200k, Actual 101k (49.5% lower)
Michael Jackson Bad 25: Prediction 140k, Actual 47k (66% lower)
The Killers: Prediction 125k, Actual 113k (10% lower)
Carly Rae Jepsen: Prediction 75k, Actual 46k (39% lower)
Easton Corbin: Prediction 50k, Actual 32k (36% lower)
Band of Horses: Prediction 39k, Actual 23k (41% lower)

September 25

Green Day: Prediction 150k, Actual 141k (6% lower)
Mumford & Sons: Initial Prediction 150k, Adjusted Prediction 400k, Actual 600k (300% higher than Initial, 50% higher than adjusted)
No Doubt: Prediction 150k, Actual 120k (20% lower)
Lupe Fiasco: Prediction 150k, Actual 90k (40% lower)
As I Lay Dying: Prediction 55k, Actual 27k (51% lower)
India Arie 40k (released June 25, 2013)
Olly Murs 40k (released April 2013)
Nelly Furtado: Prediction 35k, Actual 6k (83% lower)

October 2

Jackie Evancho: Prediction 125k, Actual 43k (66% lower)
Diana Krall: Prediction 80k, Actual 50k (37.5% lower)
Cody Simpson: Prediction 75k, Actual 15k (80% lower)
Miguel: Prediction 70k, Actual 71k (1.5% higher)
Cher Lloyd: Prediction 62k, Actual 33k (47% lower)
Three Days Grace: Prediction 60k, Actual 48k (20% lower)
Papa Roach: Prediction 50k, Actual 22k (56% lower)
Heart: Prediction 30k, Actual 16k (47% lower)

October 9

Barbra Streisand: Prediction 75k, Actual 40k (47% lower)
Kiss: Prediction 75k, Actual 60k (20% lower)
The Script: Prediction 70k, Actual 24k (68% lower)
French Montana (released May 21, 2013): Prediction 50k, Actual 56k (12% higher)
Ellie Goulding: Prediction 25k, Actual 34k (36% higher)
MGK: Prediction 20k, Actual 50k (150% higher)

October 16

Jason Aldean: Prediction 350k, Actual 409k (17% higher)
Brandy: Prediction 60k, Actual 65k (8% higher)
Dethklok: Prediction 45k, Actual 18k (60% lower)
Trace Adkins 40k (released in May 2013)
Anberlin: Prediction 20k, Actual 17k (15% lower)

October 22

Taylor Swift: Prediction 900k, Actual 1.208k (34% higher)
Kendrick Lamar: Prediction 125k, Actual 241k (93% higher)
Lady Antebellum Xmas: Prediction 75k, Actual 25k (67% lower)
Tony Bennett Latin: Prediction 65k, Actual 36k (45% lower)

Oct. 30

Meek Mill: Prediction 125k, Actual 167k (34% higher)
Toby Keith: Prediction 65k, Actual 50k (23% lower)
Rod Stewart Xmas: Prediction 60k, Actual 95k (58% higher)
Calvin Harris: Prediction 50k, Actual 18k (64% lower)
Trans Siberian EP: Prediction 40k, Actual 33k (17.5% lower)

Nov. 6

Aerosmith: Prediction 205k, Actual 65k (68% lower)
Now 44: Prediction 100k, Actual 99k (1% lower)
Ne-Yo: Prediction 75k, Actual 66k (12% lower)

Nov. 13

One Direction: Prediction 500k, Actual 539k (8% higher)
Green Day: Prediction 150k, Actual 60k (60% lower)
Christina Aguilera: Prediction 125k, Actual 73k (42% lower)
Susan Boyle: Prediction 100k, Actual 44k (56% lower)
Twilight Sdtk.: Prediction 100k, Actual 97k (3% lower)
Soundgarden: Prediction 75k, Actual 81k (8% higher)
Whitney Houston: Prediction 75k, Actual 38k (49% lower)
Rolling Stones GH: Prediction 60k, Actual 29k (52% lower)

Nov. 19

Rihanna: Initial Prediction 225k, Adjusted Prediction 275k, Actual 239k (6% higher than initial, 13% lower than adjusted)
Phillip Phillips: Prediction 150k, Actual 172k (15% higher)
Kid Rock: Prediction 150k, Actual 147k (2% lower)
Led Zeppelin Live: Prediction 100k, Actual 99k (1% lower)
Pitbull: Prediction 80k, Actual 64k (20% lower)
AC/DC Live: Prediction 75k, Actual 18k (76% lower)
Keyshia Cole: Initial Prediction 140k, Adjusted Prediction 75k, Actual 96k (31% lower from initial prediction, 28% higher than adjusted)
Coldplay Live: Prediction 75k, Actual 28k (63% lower)
Kelly Clarkson: Prediction 50k, Actual 75k (50% higher)

Nov. 27

Alicia Keys: Prediction 300k, Actual 161k (46% lower)

Dec. 4

Wiz Khalifa: Prediction 150k, Actual 131k (13% lower)
Kesha: Prediction 150k, Actual 86k (43% lower)

Dec. 11

Bruno Mars: Initial Prediction 300k, Adjusted Prediction 200k, Actual 187k (38% lower than initial, 6.5% lower than adjusted)

Dec. 18

T.I.: Prediction 125k, Actual 179k (43% higher)

[grandelf]

Aug 27, 2013 10:26:03 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Aug 27, 2013 6:19:49 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

So they originally predicted Mariah to come in under Selena.

Gaga's first week is the one I am anticipating the most.

Hope Madonna would be able to make top 10 with low sales.

Madonna is not going to make the Top 10 with just a digital album release.

I posted an Amazon link in the Madonna thread, it's quite possible the US gets the physical album too. That said I don't think Madonna will be top 10 even with a CD release, SST was already pure luck in a calmer release period...

[areyoureadytojump]

Thanks, Minor Scratch!

I was looking for that post, but could not find it.

[rosemoor]

Nelly Furtado: Prediction 35k, Actual 6k (83% lower)

ugh......

[Love Plastic Love]

Aug 27, 2013 10:34:43 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Aug 26, 2013 21:43:56 GMT -5 Love Plastic Love said:

Thanks for posting-I always love seeing these estimates! I am sad a lot of the most interesting ones aren't posted though

Like who???

Pretty much the ones you listed in your post above lol.

[HolidayGuy]

Yah, no top 10 for Her Madgesty, if there's no official CD release (not counting on-demand CD recordings that amazon.com does). Her last video-only release, Drowned World Tour, sold around 17K in its first week back in 2001. Confessions Tour did 40K (CD/DVD combo available), and Sticky & Sweet did around 34K (29K CD/DVD, 5K Blu-Ray)

Thanks for posting the comparisons, Minor Scratch. :)

[Khia]

Aug 27, 2013 10:28:09 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Aug 26, 2013 21:50:54 GMT -5 Khia said:

60k for Ashanti? Based on what?

Ashanti's last album opened with 86k. They are obviously not expecting much.

Maybe 40k?

I was thinking more like 20k...