Billboard Hot 100 : 8/31/2013

[#Joseph.T]

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 282.088 (+ 1.470)
2. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 152.524 (- 0.435)
3. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 151.150 (- 0.221)
4. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 144.059 (- 2.678)
5. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 137.438 (+ 0.981)
6. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 124.779 (+ 0.324)
7. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 111.310 (- 0.087) ▲
8. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 110.441 (- 1.111) ▼
9. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 106.007 (+ 0.009)
10. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 102.933 (+ 1.267)
11. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 92.052 (- 0.688)
12. JASON DERULO – The Other Side: 88.921 (- 0.822)
13. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can’t Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 80.948 (- 2.083)
14. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 77.270 (+ 2.206) ▲
15. PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 75.284 (- 0.770) ▼
16. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 72.746 (+ 1.036)
17. BRETT ELDREDGE – Don’t Ya: 66.041 (- 0.063)
18. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Take Back The Night: 64.711 (+ 0.009)
19. RANDY HOUSER – Runnin’ Outta Moonlight: 63.407 (- 0.660)
20. RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 62.402 ▲

KEITH URBAN – Little Bit Of Everything: 60.475 (+ 0.560)
MILEY CYRUS – We Can’t Stop: 59.488 (+ 0.565)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – See You Again: 59.438 (+ 0.060)
KATY PERRY – Roar: 58.918 (+ 9.368)
LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 55.349 (+ 1.883)
EASTON CORBIN – All Over The Road: 53.982 (+ 0.589)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 49.104 (+ 0.493)
J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 48.294 (+ 0.387)
KENNY CHESNEY – When I See This Bar: 35.901 (+ 0.099)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 30.928 (+ 0.327)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 30.650 (+ 0.329)
DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 25.809 (+ 2.274)
LADY GAGA – Applause: 24.820 (+ 4.902)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 23.464 (+ 0.325)
LORDE – Royals: 23.437 (+ 1.096)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Turn The Night Up: 22.860 (+ 0.219)
AVICII – Wake Me Up: 22.767 (+ 2.046)
ONE DIRECTION – Best Song Ever: 22.376 (+ 0.297)
FLO RIDA – Can’t Believe It f/Pitbull: 10.020 (+ 0.437)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 9.414
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 5.919
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 2.241 (+ 0.225)

[#Joseph.T]

katy will enter top 20 tomorrow :o

[markb]

I think that Katy will be #1 next week: Roar = (530,000/12) + (70,000,000/7,500) + (7,000,000/450)= 44.166 + 9.333 + 15.555 = 69.054
BL: (290,000/12) + (230,000,000/7.500) + (6,000,000/450) = 24.166 + 30,666 + 13.333 = 68.165
It will be close, but i hope Katy will beat him!!

[#Joseph.T]

Aug 15, 2013 6:19:08 GMT -5 markb said:

I think that Katy will be #1 next week: Roar = (530,000/12) + (70,000,000/7,500) + (7,000,000/450)= 44.166 + 9.333 + 15.555 = 69.054
BL: (290,000/12) + (230,000,000/7.500) + (6,000,000/450) = 24.166 + 30,666 + 13.333 = 68.165
It will be close, but i hope Katy will beat him!!

I hope so

[Deleted]

Aug 15, 2013 6:19:08 GMT -5 markb said:

I think that Katy will be #1 next week: Roar = (530,000/12) + (70,000,000/7,500) + (7,000,000/450)= 44.166 + 9.333 + 15.555 = 69.054
BL: (290,000/12) + (230,000,000/7.500) + (6,000,000/450) = 24.166 + 30,666 + 13.333 = 68.165
It will be close, but i hope Katy will beat him!!

Doubtful. The lyric video is doing well but I don't think it'll get 7 million US views, even if it does though, Thicke is at 7,600,000 streaming this week, no way it's falling to 6,000,000. I also think 70 million AI is too much for Katy. 

Still hoping Katy can debut with 600k+, Blurred Lines is still only 0.4143 on iTunse after almost 3 and a half days. On average she could end up selling 2x as much as Thicke.  :)

[stanr]

My prediction:

1. Robin (290,000/12) + (230,000,000/7,500) + (6,500,000/450) = 69,277
2. Katy (585,000/12) + (60,000,000/7,500) + (3,500,000/450) = 64,527
3. Gaga (275,000/12) + (30,000,000/7,500) + (6,000,000/450) = 40,250
4. Miley (140,000/12) + (52,000,000/7,500) + (7,200,000/450) = 34,600

[Deleted]

Aug 15, 2013 6:19:08 GMT -5 markb said:

I think that Katy will be #1 next week: Roar = (530,000/12) + (70,000,000/7,500) + (7,000,000/450)= 44.166 + 9.333 + 15.555 = 69.054
BL: (290,000/12) + (230,000,000/7.500) + (6,000,000/450) = 24.166 + 30,666 + 13.333 = 68.165
It will be close, but i hope Katy will beat him!!

I hope she doesn't.

[colson]

What is the biggest jump ever to #2 on the Hot 100? It seems Roar is destined to jump from 85 to 2.

[Resident_Evil]

Go Katy Perry!!! Bury Gaga's pretentious ass.

Serves Gaga right for trying to sabotage Katy's moment (although I do like Applause better while I don't like roar AT ALL).

[Linnethia Monique]

King Thicke still increasing. Hilarious.

[Lockheart]

Aug 15, 2013 7:56:22 GMT -5 colson said:

What is the biggest jump ever to #2 on the Hot 100? It seems Roar is destined to jump from 85 to 2.

I don't think anyone really cares for the biggest jump to #2 lol

I'm kinda embarrassed for GaGa, not that she should be since Applause will zoom in top 3, but she's been everywhere lately and the song hasn't topped Roar

[jgizzle89]

Katy will not be #1 this week.

[jayhawk1117]

Since Katy has kept BL around .5-.33 all week so maybe she doubles BL. If he sells 300k (which is likely), then maybe she has a 600k week. Im guessing 500k-650k.

[Rodze]

Aug 15, 2013 7:56:22 GMT -5 colson said:

What is the biggest jump ever to #2 on the Hot 100? It seems Roar is destined to jump from 85 to 2.

Billboard will make sure to let us know what is the biggest jump to no. 2 in the month of August by a song from an artist with black hair and younger than 30 years-old.

[RadioBeatz]

Yay for "Roar" such a radio smash!

Even if it won't hit #1 this week, I hope it has a chance to do it the weeks after.

[Daniel Collins]

Aug 15, 2013 7:56:22 GMT -5 colson said:

What is the biggest jump ever to #2 on the Hot 100? It seems Roar is destined to jump from 85 to 2.

Jun 8, 2007 15:19:20 GMT -5 @2m said:

Biggest jumps to #2 in Hot 100 history

60-2 "Loverboy" Mariah Carey featuring Cameo (Aug 4, 2001)
55-2 "Incomplete," Sisqo (Aug. 5, 2000)
54-2 "Nel Blu Dipinto Di Blu (Volare)," Domenico Modugno (Aug. 11, 1958)
51-2 "Party Like a Rockstar," Shop Boyz (June 9, 2007)
49-2 "Last Kiss," Pearl Jam (June 26, 1999)
41-2 "Music of My Heart," 'N Sync & Gloria Estefan (Oct. 16, 1999)
31-2 "I'll Make Love to You," Boyz II Men (Aug. 20, 1994)
28-2 "Single Ladies," Beyonce
26-2 "I Believe I Can Fly," R. Kelly (Dec. 21, 1996)
22-2 "Thank God I Found You," Mariah Carey featuring Joe & 98 Degrees (Feb. 12, 2000)
22-2 "Kiss Kiss," Chris Brown

[The Upper Hand]

Billboard:

Meanwhile, sales forecast for Lady Gaga's "Applause" sees a change

Katy Perry's new song "Roar" is off to a roaring sales start, with industry forecasters suggesting it will move around 450,000 downloads by the end of the tracking week on Sunday (Aug. 18).

Meanwhile, fellow diva Lady Gaga is also off to a handsome launch with her new single "Applause." It's heading for a bow of perhaps 200,000 to 225,000 downloads.

"Roar" and "Applause" were released to digital retailers on Monday and Tuesday (Aug. 12 and 13), respectively. The songs preview new studio albums for each superstar: Perry's "Roar" leads her "Prism" set, due out Oct. 22. "Applause" is the first single from Gaga's "ArtPop," which arrives on Nov. 11.

On Monday, Aug. 12, there were early indications that both "Roar" and "Applause" could sell over 400,000 downloads. At the time, industry sources theorized that, considering both artists' stellar track history with digital song sales, a robust first-week for the two acts seemed likely.

However, once the songs went on sale, the forecast changed. Still, we have four more days left in the tracking week -- so anything can happen.

Perry's sales start benefits slightly from how it will have a full seven days worth of sales in its debut. Most songs are released to retailers on Tuesday of each week, whereas "Roar" bowed on a Monday. "Roar" will get seven days of sales in its first week, as Nielsen SoundScan's tracking week runs from Monday through Sunday each week. (Yet, most new songs and albums are released to retailers every Tuesday.)

Gaga's last studio album, 2011's "Born This Way," was led by its title track, which debuted at No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart with 448,000 downloads after only three days on sale, according to Nielsen SoundScan. (It hit retail on an off-cycle Friday, instead of the usual Tuesday.) In its second chart week (and first full sales week), it moved 509,000 downloads.

Perry's last new album, 2010's "Teenage Dream," was ushered in by the single "California Gurls." It bowed at No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart with 294,000. Perry has sold more than 400,000 in two previous weeks: when "Firework" shifted 509,000 over the busy post-Christmas week of 2010, and when "Part of Me" debuted in 2012 (411,000).

If both "Applause" and "Roar" debut with sales larger than 200,000, it will be the first time two songs have sold that many copies in their debut week since last October. On the Digital Songs chart dated Oct. 20 (reflecting the sales week ending Oct. 7), three new tunes arrived with sales exceeding 200,000: One Direction's "Live While We're Young" (341,000), Taylor Swift's "Red" (312,000) and Adele's "Skyfall" (261,000).

The final sales tally for both will be released on the morning of Wednesday, Aug. 21.

[Push The Button]

Oof. Not a great start for Gaga.

[Deleted]

Aug 15, 2013 12:22:21 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

Katy Perry's new song "Roar" is off to a roaring sales start, with industry forecasters suggesting it will move around 450,000 downloads by the end of the tracking week on Sunday (Aug. 18).

What. Is Blurred Lines dropping from 350k to 200k this week? Or are they just expecting it to drop really fast?

Aug 15, 2013 12:22:21 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

Meanwhile, fellow diva Lady Gaga is also off to a handsome launch with her new single "Applause." It's heading for a bow of perhaps 200,000 to 225,000 downloads.

911 POP MUSIC EMERGENCY SUMMON THE MONSTER TROUPES

[The Upper Hand]

Aug 15, 2013 12:43:07 GMT -5 Codex said:

What. Is Blurred Lines dropping from 350k to 200k this week?

We also need to consider the other versions:

3. Robin Thicke - Blurred Lines (feat. T.I. & Pharrell)
103. Robin Thicke - Blurred Lines (feat. T.I. & Pharrell) [Will Sparks Remix]
105. Robin Thicke - Blurred Lines (feat. T.I. & Pharrell)
642. Robin Thicke - Blurred Lines (feat. T.I. & Pharrell)
1353. Robin Thicke - Blurred Lines (feat. T.I. & Pharrell)

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Aug 15, 2013 12:49:56 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

Aug 15, 2013 12:43:07 GMT -5 Codex said:

What. Is Blurred Lines dropping from 350k to 200k this week?

We also need to consider the other versions:

3. Robin Thicke - Blurred Lines (feat. T.I. & Pharrell)
103. Robin Thicke - Blurred Lines (feat. T.I. & Pharrell) [Will Sparks Remix]
105. Robin Thicke - Blurred Lines (feat. T.I. & Pharrell)
642. Robin Thicke - Blurred Lines (feat. T.I. & Pharrell)
1353. Robin Thicke - Blurred Lines (feat. T.I. & Pharrell)

The others combined account for maybe 50k tops. Also note Gaga has two versions as well.

[stanr]

I think Billboard still being super conservative. Katy will cross that 500k mark.
and ouch for Gaga. How come she's only doing 200-225k? Her BTW opening numbers were impressive! now it's doing worse than Womanizer or Touch My Body??

[Deleted]

Oh, that certainly changes things. That means Robin's at 0.5 instead of 0,43. Still, I think they're underpredicting Katy and she'll scrape 500k.

[Deleted]

Aug 15, 2013 12:55:23 GMT -5 stanr said:

I think Billboard still being super conservative. Katy will cross that 500k mark.
and ouch for Gaga. How come she's only doing 200-225k? Her BTW opening numbers were impressive! now it's doing worse than Womanizer or Touch My Body??

It's selling around the same as Ariana, Miley and Demi's lead singles. 

[stanr]

Aug 15, 2013 12:59:52 GMT -5 Codex said:

Aug 15, 2013 12:55:23 GMT -5 stanr said:

I think Billboard still being super conservative. Katy will cross that 500k mark.
and ouch for Gaga. How come she's only doing 200-225k? Her BTW opening numbers were impressive! now it's doing worse than Womanizer or Touch My Body??

It's selling around the same as Ariana, Miley and Demi's lead singles. 

[Deleted]

Aug 15, 2013 12:43:07 GMT -5 Codex said:

Aug 15, 2013 12:22:21 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

Katy Perry's new song "Roar" is off to a roaring sales start, with industry forecasters suggesting it will move around 450,000 downloads by the end of the tracking week on Sunday (Aug. 18).

What. Is Blurred Lines dropping from 350k to 200k this week? Or are they just expecting it to drop really fast?

Like someone else said, I think they are still expecting Katy to have a standard sales drop as the week goes on; I can't see Robin droping below 300k (probably not even below 320k). But with the strong hold she is still showing on iTunes i agree that they're underestimating her.

i personally think "Applause" is simultaneously uneventful and too try-hard and Gaga has taken a bit of a hit to her core fanbase lately, so I'm not really surprised that it's not doing as exceedingly well as we might have hoped or expected. With that said I'm a little sad she didn't debut at the bottom or the chart this week (and at the same time sad that Katy debuted at #83) b/c either one of them could have broken the record for largest one-week move on the chart, even if they didn't break the record for largest jump to #1.

[RadioBeatz]

This is soooo underwhelming and disappointing compared to "Born This Way" even if she had lots of hype back then, there was also a share of anticipation this time around, she's Lady Gaga.

[Au$tin]

I personally think Robin will drop below 300k this week* and Katy will debut just above 500k.

*Reasoning - He's falling anyway, and this week he lost #1 exposure. I bet he pulls in around 290k.

[Enigma.]

The streaming numbers for Katy/Gaga/Thicke are very interesting. In theory, how huge streaming numbers Gaga would need to be #1 if her sales are what predicted above?

Not saying she could do it, 100% sure she won't.

EDIT: Tried to count myself. Quite huge I'd say lol

[Living Legend]

I think they're definitely underestimating Katy. I still think she'll do 550k-575k.