inverse
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Post by inverse on Oct 20, 2018 14:25:31 GMT -5
Interesting to see the difference here, you have the lower peaks much lower. I do think you're missing Mi Gente, it should be around Believer and there's no way it's below The Way Life Goes and Bank Account.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 20, 2018 14:45:37 GMT -5
Interesting to see the difference here, you have the lower peaks much lower. I do think you're missing Mi Gente, it should be around Believer and there's no way it's below The Way Life Goes and Bank Account. You're right! It has 3406 points overall, and 1143 of them qualify for Billboard calendar year 2018. That's enough to put it in #83 and push everything below that down by one.
ETA: Also discovered I missed Gummo, which has 1919 points under my system, enough for #51 on the list. When I update next week, both those songs will be included.
I know people are saying that my list and fhas have different rankings, but I'm personally delighted with how close my simple weighted points system is coming to his much more scientific breakdown.My biggest difference in the top 40 is that I have Bodak Yellow in this year's top 40, and fhas has it at #52.
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thelegends
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Post by thelegends on Oct 20, 2018 15:01:32 GMT -5
Interesting to see the difference here, you have the lower peaks much lower. I do think you're missing Mi Gente, it should be around Believer and there's no way it's below The Way Life Goes and Bank Account. You're right! It has 3406 points overall, and 1143 of them qualify for Billboard calendar year 2018. That's enough to put it in #83 and push everything below that down by one.Yes
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 20, 2018 16:24:10 GMT -5
October 20, 2018 - 48/53 weeks (90.57%)
Added this week: - Locked this week: ---> No Brainer (DJ Khaled feat. Justin Bieber, Chance the Rapper & Quavo) Estimated Cutoff ---> 195,000 points (margin of error: 5% --- 185,250-204,750)
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Trilogy
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Post by Trilogy on Oct 20, 2018 18:37:35 GMT -5
Unrelated but fhas I absolutely LOVE Infinity 2008! So glad you have it as your avatar
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2018 10:47:30 GMT -5
Where is Ring and High Hopes at?
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 21, 2018 11:27:48 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - October 20th 2018Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000 # | +/- | Song | Points | Sales | Airplay | On-Demand | YouTube | Programmed | Total Streams | +/- (%) | 1 | = | Girls Like You | 32,800 | 22.0k | 125.4m | 7.9m | 10.4m | 4.4m | 22.9m | +1.3 | 2 | +1 | Lucid Dreams | 29,800 | 11.0k | 71.0m | 14.5m | 14.9m | 6.2m | 35.8m | -0.5 | 3 | +1 | Better Now | 28,300 | 19.0k | 100.0m | 10.9m | 4.4m | 6.0m | 21.4m | +5.3 | 4 | +21 | Drip Too Hard | 26,200 | 5.1k | 4.8m | 30.8m | 10.4m | 0.0m | 41.3m | +73.3 | 5 | +23 | Shallow | 23,900 | 94.0k | 5.1m | 8.1m | 5.2m | 0.0m | 13.4m | +64.9 | 6 | = | SICKO MODE | 23,700 | 10.3k | 42.4m | 17.7m | 7.6m | 4.5m | 29.9m | +0.2 | 7 | +1 | Youngblood | 23,300 | 17.1k | 94.8m | 7.8m | 3.0m | 1.8m | 12.7m | +0.2 | 8 | +5 | Happier | 23,200 | 24.0k | 53.4m | 13.4m | 5.3m | 2.5m | 21.3m | +7.0 | 9 | +2 | I Like It | 22,100 | 12.9k | 60.3m | 9.3m | 9.4m | 3.6m | 22.4m | -1.5 | 10 | +2 | FEFE | 20,100 | 7.6k | 25.5m | 13.6m
| 12.3m | 3.6m | 29.5m | -8.8 |
Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 21, 2018 11:28:09 GMT -5
Highlights of the week:
- Lucid Dreams: weakest #2 since I began to track the points for all the songs in the top 10 (weakest #2 before this week: Lucid Dreams - 31,300 points - October 6); - Drip Too Hard: weakest #4 since I began to track the points for all the songs in the top 10 (weakest #4 before this week: In My Feelings - 26,700 points - October 6); - Shallow: weakest #5 since I began to track the points for all the songs in the top 10 (weakest #4 before this week: KILLSHOT - 25,400 points - October 6);
For the second time in three weeks, we had one of the weakest weeks of the entire decade.
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fhas
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Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Oct 21, 2018 11:51:40 GMT -5
Hot 100 - Component charts Breakdown - October 20, 2018
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 21, 2018 17:51:26 GMT -5
The component breakdown explains why this is such a weak chart. The radio, sales & stream leaders are radically different. A car can't reach top speed firing on one of three cylinders.
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korbel16
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Post by korbel16 on Oct 21, 2018 18:02:12 GMT -5
The component breakdown explains why this is such a weak chart. The radio, sales & stream leaders are radically different. A car can't reach top speed firing on one of three cylinders. very deep
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Post by flextamcsignals on Oct 21, 2018 20:54:16 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Flex (Ooh Ooh Ooh) is the only song to make the year-end top 50 despite not peaking in the top 20? Because Tequila and/or I Like Me Better can very well do that this year.
UPDATE: I found another song that made the year-end top 50 without peaking in the top 20. Haven't Met You Yet by Michael Buble peaked at 24 and was #39 on the 2010 YE.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2018 20:55:16 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Flex (Ooh Ooh Ooh) is the only song to make the year-end top 50 despite not peaking in the top 20? Because Tequila and/or I Like Me Better can very well do that this year. I Like Me Better will make the top 40 with a 27 peak.
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nick64
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Post by nick64 on Oct 21, 2018 23:45:46 GMT -5
Looks like these are the songs that are gonna make it without hitting Pop radio:
1. Sad! 2. Look Alive 3. Yes Indeed 4. MotorSport 5. Ric Flair Drip *6. Nonstop 7. Heaven 8. Gummo 9. Plug Walk 10. Be Careful 11. Bartier Cardi 12. You Make It Easy *13. Simple 14. Te Bote 15. I Get the Bag 16. Marry Me 17. Plain Jane 18. Get Along 19. Kingโs Dead 20. Moonlight 21. Iโm Upset *22. Trip 23. Mercy 24. One Number Away 25. Changes 26. Dura 27. Outside Today
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2018 0:28:20 GMT -5
Looks like these are the songs that are gonna make it without hitting Pop radio: 1. Sad! 2. Look Alive 3. Yes Indeed 4. MotorSport 5. Ric Flair Drip *6. Nonstop 7. Heaven 8. Gummo 9. Plug Walk 10. Be Careful 11. Bartier Cardi 12. You Make It Easy *13. Simple 14. Te Bote 15. I Get the Bag 16. Marry Me 17. Plain Jane 18. Get Along 19. Kingโs Dead 20. Moonlight 21. Iโm Upset *22. Trip 23. Mercy 24. One Number Away 25. Changes 26. Dura 27. Outside Today A few of those have had some minor airplay on Pop Radio though like Sad, Look Alive, Motorsport, Be Careful, Bartier Cardi, and Plain Jane.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2018 0:30:18 GMT -5
Is there any chance of Lucid Dreams passing Nice For What for the 11th spot?
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nick64
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Post by nick64 on Oct 22, 2018 0:33:29 GMT -5
Looks like these are the songs that are gonna make it without hitting Pop radio: 1. Sad! 2. Look Alive 3. Yes Indeed 4. MotorSport 5. Ric Flair Drip *6. Nonstop 7. Heaven 8. Gummo 9. Plug Walk 10. Be Careful 11. Bartier Cardi 12. You Make It Easy *13. Simple 14. Te Bote 15. I Get the Bag 16. Marry Me 17. Plain Jane 18. Get Along 19. Kingโs Dead 20. Moonlight 21. Iโm Upset *22. Trip 23. Mercy 24. One Number Away 25. Changes 26. Dura 27. Outside Today A few of those have had some minor airplay on Pop Radio though like Sad, Look Alive, Motorsport, Be Careful, Bartier Cardi, and Plain Jane. I meant as in hitting the Top 50
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Oct 22, 2018 1:01:36 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Flex (Ooh Ooh Ooh) is the only song to make the year-end top 50 despite not peaking in the top 20? Because Tequila and/or I Like Me Better can very well do that this year. UPDATE: I found another song that made the year-end top 50 without peaking in the top 20. Haven't Met You Yet by Michael Buble peaked at 24 and was #39 on the 2010 YE. There's a few more. Back 2 Good by Matchbox 20 in 1999, Come To My Window by Melissa Etheridge with a crazy nuts chart run in 1994 and then Days Of Wine And Roses (48) in 1963 which peaked @ 33 and is the highest finish by far for a >30 peak, the second highest being two 68's. It's highly probable that there's more than that from the 60's and 70's, I don't know that much about those charts (I do know there were only three sub-30's in the period from 1959-1994 though)
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samo๐ฆ
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Post by samo๐ฆ on Oct 22, 2018 6:39:55 GMT -5
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Oct 22, 2018 7:10:03 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Flex (Ooh Ooh Ooh) is the only song to make the year-end top 50 despite not peaking in the top 20? Because Tequila and/or I Like Me Better can very well do that this year. I Like Me Better will make the top 40 with a 27 peak. It's longevity is so impressive.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 22, 2018 7:46:23 GMT -5
Is there any chance of Lucid Dreams passing Nice For What for the 11th spot? Not probable on my BB Year-end chart. There's over a 600 point gap with just six weeks left in the BB fiscal year (Dec 1 to Nov 30). Unless Nice For What falls off the Hot 100 completely next week, and Lucid climbs to #1, I can't see it happening.
But I also keep a "complete" top 100 of each year, which will include all points in a song's run regardless of when it charts or for how long. (In other words, it isn't complete until the last song that peaked in 2018 falls off the chart. For 2017, that was literally last week.) If Lucid has peaked before Jan 1, 2019, then both songs will be on the 2018 chart, and Lucid could eventually overtake Drake. In fact I'd even say it's likely.
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samo๐ฆ
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Post by samo๐ฆ on Oct 22, 2018 7:49:39 GMT -5
Is there any chance of Lucid Dreams passing Nice For What for the 11th spot? Not probable on my BB Year-end chart. There's over a 600 point gap with just six weeks left in the BB fiscal year (Dec 1 to Nov 30). Unless Nice For What falls off the Hot 100 completely next week, and Lucid climbs to #1, I can't see it happening....it's not on this week's chart but ok
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 22, 2018 8:59:31 GMT -5
Not probable on my BB Year-end chart. There's over a 600 point gap with just six weeks left in the BB fiscal year (Dec 1 to Nov 30). Unless Nice For What falls off the Hot 100 completely next week, and Lucid climbs to #1, I can't see it happening. ...it's not on this week's chart but ok Sorry, I was looking at my chart where Lucid Dreams is #12, and In My Feelings is #11 but about 600 points higher. I got the Drake tracks confused. I'm sure Drake must have the same problem.
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born
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Post by born on Oct 22, 2018 13:43:36 GMT -5
The longevity for โDelicateโ is truly amazing, considering she had some of her shortest song runs with the previous singles this era.
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thelegends
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Post by thelegends on Oct 22, 2018 14:01:41 GMT -5
The longevity for โDelicateโ is truly amazing, considering she had some of her shortest song runs with the previous singles this era. Good Singles (Delicate) = Better Longevity and More Stable Chart Run Bad Singles (i.e. : LWYMMD, RFI, End Game) = Worse Longevity and Polarizing Chart Run.
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Oct 22, 2018 14:41:07 GMT -5
So with "Delicate" hitting top 25 likely on the year end chart, do we think it got more raw points than "Look What You Made Me Do"?
Look What You Made Me Do made #39 last year, and had only 8 weeks count for the 2018 chart, and only 2/8 of those weeks were in the top 50 - so I'm thinking "Delicate" is the biggest hit of the Reputation era.
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Oct 22, 2018 14:42:30 GMT -5
The longevity for โDelicateโ is truly amazing, considering she had some of her shortest song runs with the previous singles this era. The formula change helped her immensely though. I remember before the formula change, she was struggling to hit top 20, and then when airplay got weighted more, it almost went to the top 10. It's still top 10 at radio, which is helping it stay in the Top 30 region on the Hot 100 for weeks.
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Oct 22, 2018 14:47:06 GMT -5
If Back To You can remain in the top 25 for another 5 weeks, it may be able to hit #35 on the year end chart.
Pretty impressive for a song that peaked at #18
And if "Love Lies" remains in the top 15-20 for another 5 weeks, it may surpass Camilla's "Never Be the Same" and will probably hit ~#17 on the year end
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Oct 22, 2018 18:10:42 GMT -5
If Back To You can remain in the top 25 for another 5 weeks, it may be able to hit #35 on the year end chart. Pretty impressive for a song that peaked at #18 And if "Love Lies" remains in the top 15-20 for another 5 weeks, it may surpass Camilla's "Never Be the Same" and will probably hit ~#17 on the year end If it keeps up with the points it had from the 10-20-18 chart and stayed that way for the next 5 weeks, then it does have a chance to end up at #34-#35.
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atg
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Post by atg on Oct 22, 2018 21:04:25 GMT -5
Finesse was the biggest song that got robbed from #1 this year
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