85la
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Post by 85la on Aug 28, 2015 17:25:22 GMT -5
There are 12 weeks left in the chart year. By my estimations based on the average points for #1, the best a brand new song can do now is maybe #20-ish.... and that would require the equivalent of debuting at #1 next week and staying there for 12 weeks... or having abnormally large point totals for several weeks. While possible, it's not likely. It'll be interesting to see how Ariana Grande's upcoming single performs. And whatever other big names release something new in the very near future. Yes. I don't think any new song will be able to enter Top-20. Maybe 1 or 2 will enter top-30. I agree that it's not likely, but it might be more likely than you guys think. In 1995, Fantasy only spent 9 weeks on the chart during that year, 8 of which were at #1, but made it to #7 year end, and in '97, there was Candle in the Wind which only had the last 8 weeks of that chart year, all at #1, but was #1 for the year! (although I'll admit that was on extreme anomaly because it sold like 7 mil copies those weeks). But just last year, in fact, Shake it Off only had 13 weeks but was at #13 year-end. Adele's album is supposed to come out in November, I bet if anyone could pull out a last minute surprise, she could. Also, about the split chart years, this was kind of a long time ago but Madonna's Erotica was split between '92 and '93 and thus didn't make any year. It had a weekly peak of #3 but wasn't a very big hit, so I would estimate it could have made the '60s or '70s if its entire run were included in one year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2015 18:38:44 GMT -5
Im calling it right now, Adeles new album will be a huge flop.
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Post by Mikel Echarri on Aug 28, 2015 18:41:33 GMT -5
Im calling it right now, Adeles new album will be a huge flop.
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mamooshka
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Post by mamooshka on Aug 28, 2015 19:04:55 GMT -5
Im calling it right now, Adeles new album will be a huge flop.
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mamooshka
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Post by mamooshka on Aug 28, 2015 19:05:31 GMT -5
Meant to say LOL.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2015 20:04:05 GMT -5
You have no evidence how it will do. Everyone said Lady Gagas Artpop Album would be one of the best. But it ended up Flopping and not doing too well. I predict Adeles to do the same.
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lyhom
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Post by lyhom on Aug 28, 2015 20:08:47 GMT -5
You have no evidence how it will do. and neither do you
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Aug 29, 2015 19:56:04 GMT -5
How did you get the added-up figure of airplay and streaming? Is there a certain webpage to look up the sales/ airplay/ streaming garnered before a song departs the chart? Did it the hard way..... added up all the reported/estimated airplay and streams over all weeks. The totals might not be exactly correct, but they should be pretty close to the actuals. I wonder what's the airplay total of "we belong together".. cuz its sale was so lousy that could not even drive it to anywhere near decade-end.. I suspect its airplay statistics would be MUCH MORE THAN MIND-BLOWING for that's the only reason why it's not only on decade-end, but the top of it..
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2015 9:46:59 GMT -5
Im calling it right now, Adeles new album will be a huge flop. While nobody knows how it will do, I personally think it's probably safer to say "it won't be as successful as 21 was" (because that was a once in a lifetime phenomenon) than "it will be a huge flop". Anything will "flop" compared to 21, realistically. I'll liken it to Supposed Former Infatuation Junkie by Alanis. Only because she was coming off one of the biggest selling albums EVER. Expectations were ridiculous. It didn't do nearly the sales as JLP, but was it a flop? No. It did well on its own merits up against impossible expectations and in the shadow of such a monster album. Lightning like that rarely strikes twice. Adele will - at the very least - have a hit single (sales and radio support) out of the gate and big first week sales figure. I just have no reason to believe people have lost interest given her super broad, cross-generational appeal/audience. From kids to seniors, her music and persona seems to appeal to people of all ages. Something Alanis didn't have going for her, at least not nearly to the same degree.
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Post by Ted Sweeran on Sept 1, 2015 9:16:42 GMT -5
Where do you think Stitches will land at the year-end chart?
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on Sept 1, 2015 9:33:00 GMT -5
Where do you think Stitches will land at the year-end chart? It's too early to call now; it's only had 3 total weeks in the top 40, 1 week in the top 20, and we have no idea whether it will peak naturally, if it's still in natural growth, or anything like that. We may know in a month or so.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2015 9:49:49 GMT -5
WEEK 41 (12 SEPT 2015)
01 01 UPTOWN FUNK - MARK RONSON F/ BRUNO MARS (1) 02 02 THINKING OUT LOUD - ED SHEERAN (2) 03 03 SEE YOU AGAIN - WIZ KHALIFA F/ CHARLIE PUTH (1) 04 04 BLANK SPACE - TAYLOR SWIFT (1) 05 05 TRAP QUEEN - FETTY WAP (2) 06 06 SUGAR - MAROON 5 (2) 07 08 SHUT UP AND DANCE - WALK THE MOON (4) 08 07 EARNED IT - THE WEEKND (3) 09 09 TAKE ME TO CHURCH - HOZIER (2) 10 10 LOVE ME LIKE YOU DO - ELLIE GOULDING (3)
11 11 SHAKE IT OFF - TAYLOR SWIFT (1)* 12 13 CHEERLEADER - OMI (1) 13 12 BAD BLOOD - TAYLOR SWIFT (1) 14 16 WATCH ME - SILENTO (3) 15 14 LIPS ARE MOVIN' - MEGHAN TRAINOR (4) 16 15 I'M NOT THE ONLY ONE - SAM SMITH (5) 17 18 WANT TO WANT ME - JASON DERULO (5) 18 17 ALL ABOUT THAT BASS - MEGHAN TRAINOR (1)* 19 19 STYLE - TAYLOR SWIFT (6) 20 20 G.D.F.R. - FLO RIDA F/ SAGE THE GEMINI & LOOKAS (8)
21 25 CAN'T FEEL MY FACE - THE WEEKND (1) 22 21 POST TO BE - OMARION F/ CHRIS BROWN & JHENE AIKO (13) 23 24 HONEY, I'M GOOD. - ANDY GRAMMER (9) 24 23 HEY MAMA - DAVID GUETTA F/ NICKI MINAJ & AFROJACK (8) 25 22 JEALOUS - NICK JONAS (7) 26 26 TIME OF OUR LIVES - PITBULL & NE-YO (9) 27 30 WHERE ARE U NOW - SKRILLEX & DIPLO F/ JUSTIN BIEBER (8) 28 34 LEAN ON - MAJOR LAZER X DJ SNAKE F/ M0 (4) 29 32 WORTH IT - FIFTH HARMONY F/ KID INK (12) 30 27 FOURFIVESECONDS - RIHANNA & KANYE WEST & PAUL MCCARTNEY (4)
31 28 TALKING BODY - TOVE LO (12) 32 29 SOMEBODY - NATALIE LA ROSE F/ JEREMIH (10) 33 31 ANIMALS - MAROON 5 (3)* 34 35 FIGHT SONG - RACHEL PLATTEN (6) 35 33 CENTURIES - FALL OUT BOY (10) 36 36 I DON'T f**k WITH YOU - BIG SEAN F/ E-40 (11) 37 37 TAKE YOUR TIME - SAM HUNT (20) 38 38 LOVE ME HARDER - ARIANA GRANDE F/ THE WEEKND (7)* 39 39 I DON'T MIND - USHER F/ JUICY J (11) 40 40 ONLY - NICKI MINAJ F/ DRAKE, LIL WAYNE & CHRIS BROWN (12)
41 41 BITCH BETTER HAVE MY MONEY - RIHANNA (15) 42 48 THE HILLS - THE WEEKND (4) 43 43 NASTY FREESTYLE - T-WAYNE (9) 44 42 STAY WITH ME - SAM SMITH (2)* 45 44 ELASTIC HEART - SIA (17) 46 46 THE HEART WANTS WHAT IT WANTS - SELENA GOMEZ (6) 47 46 TRUFFLE BUTTER - NICKI MINAJ F/ DRAKE & LIL WAYNE (14) 48 47 7/11 - BEYONCE (13) 49 49 YOU KNOW YOU LIKE IT - DJ SNAKE & ALUNAGEORGE (13) 50 50 ONE LAST TIME - ARIANA GRANDE (13)
51 51 CHAINS - NICK JONAS (13) 52 52 HABITS (STAY HIGH) - TOVE LO (3)* 53 53 GIRL CRUSH - LITTLE BIG TOWN (18) 54 54 SLOW MOTION - TREY SONGZ (26) 55 55 NO TYPE - RAE SREMMURD (16) 56 56 RIPTIDE - VANCY JOY (30) 57 57 DEAR FUTURE HUSBAND - MEGHAN TRAINOR (14) 58 67 GOOD FOR YOU - SELENA GOMEZ F/ A$AP ROCKY (6) 59 58 LAY ME DOWN - SAM SMITH (8) 60 59 THE HANGING TREE - JAMES NEWTON HOWARD F/ JENNIFER LAWRENCE (12)
61 60 COCO - O.T. GENASIS (20) 62 61 AYO - CHRIS BROWN & TYGA (21) 63 62 BANG BANG - JESSIE J F/ ARIANA GRANDE & NICKI MINAJ (3)* 64 63 TUESDAY - I LOVE MAKONNEN F/ DRAKE (12)* 65 69 PHOTOGRAPH - ED SHEERAN (12) 66 66 FLEX (OOH OOH OOH) - RICH HOMIE QUAN (26) 67 64 BLESSINGS - BIG SEAN F/ DRAKE (28) 68 65 DON'T - ED SHEERAN (9)* 69 68 CHANDELIER - SIA (8)* 70 70 BUDAPEST - GEORGE EZRA (32)
71 71 HEARTBEAT SONG - KELLY CLARKSON (21) 72 72 SHE KNOWS - NE-YO F/ JUICY J (19) 73 75 UMA THURMAN - FALL OUT BOY (22) 74 73 GHOST - ELLA HENDERSON (21) 75 78 CLASSIC MAN - JIDENNA F/ ROMAN GIANARTHUR (22) 76 74 WAVES - MR. PROBZ (14) 77 83 679 - FETTY WAP F/ REMY BOYZ (8) 78 76 PRAYER IN C - LILLYWOOD & ROBIN SCHULZ (23) 79 86 MY WAY - FETTY WAP (7) 80 77 NIGHT CHANGES - ONE DIRECTION (31)
81 79 I WANT YOU TO KNOW - ZEDD F/ SELENA GOMEZ (17) 82 80 THROW SUM MO - RAE SREMMURD F/ NICKI MINAJ & YOUNG THUG (30) 83 84 KICK THE DUST UP - LUKE BRYAN (26) 84 82 SANGRIA - BLAKE SHELTON (38) 85 81 HOMEGROWN - ZAC BROWN BAND (35) 86 90 BE REAL - KID INK F/ DEJ LOAF (43) 87 85 OUTSIDE - CALVIN HARRIS F/ ELLIE GOULDING (29) 88 87 I BET MY LIFE - IMAGINE DRAGONS (28) 89 88 LIKE A WRECKING BALL - ERIC CHURCH (51) 90 89 THIS SUMMER'S GONNA HURT LIKE A MOTHERF****R - MAROON 5 (23)
91 –– COOL FOR THE SUMMER - DEMI LOVATO (16) 92 91 BRIGHT - ECHOSMITH (40) 93 92 ENERGY - DRAKE (26) 94 93 HOT BOY - BOBBY SHMURDA (6)* 95 94 SIPPIN' ON FIRE - FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE (40) 96 –– RENEGADES - X AMBASSADORS (36) 97 95 DON'T IT - BILLY CURRINGTON (44) 98 96 BLAME - CALVIN HARRIS F/ JOHN NEWMAN (19)* 99 97 FEELING MYSELF - NICKI MINAJ F/ BEYONCE (39) 100 98 I SEE YOU - LUKE BRYAN (41)
BUBBLING UNDER
101 HOUSE PARTY - SAM HUNT (26) 103 EL PERDON - NICKY JAM & ENRIQUE IGLESIAS (66) 115 CRASH AND BURN - THOMAS RHETT (36) 122 STITCHES - SHAWN MENDES (20) 127 ONE HELL OF AN AMEN - BRANTLEY GILBERT (44) 131 ALL EYES ON YOU - MEEK MILL F/ CHRIS BROWN & NICKI MINAJ (21) 141 MARVIN GAYE - CHARLIE PUTH F/ MEGHAN TRAINOR (25) 142 BUY ME A BOAT - CHRIS JANSON (41) 148 DRAG ME DOWN - ONE DIRECTION (3) 151 PLANES - JEREMIH F/ J. COLE (44) 161 LOCKED AWAY - R. CITY F/ ADAM LEVINE (8) 167 THIS COULD BE US - RAE SREMMURD (49) 170 I DON'T LIKE IT I LOVE IT - FLO RIDA F/ ROBIN THICKE & VERDINE WHITE (43) 181 BEAUTIFUL NOW - ZEDD F/ JON BELLION (64) 183 R.I.C.O. - MEEK MILL F/ DRAKE (40) 189 GHOST TOWN - ADAM LAMBERT (67) 192 SHE'S KINDA HOT - 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER (22) 226 HOTLINE BLING - DRAKE (29) 242 AGAIN - FETTY WAP (33)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2015 11:40:49 GMT -5
So judging by Broccolis chart, what songs do you think is right on the threshold. Theres likely that 15 more songs that are NOT on top 100 predictions yet could end up being on it. I think the Threshhold is Homegrown and Throw Sum Mo. We will see. What do you all think?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2015 12:07:03 GMT -5
Stitches, All Eyez On You, Marvin Gaye, Drag Me Down, Locked Away, Hotline Bling, Downtown, What Do You Mean, Wildest Dreams... those 9 are all likely to make it in, probably all top 75. Plus there are some others currently charting that very well could, and we have a few potential upcoming (still unreleased) big names who could ... Ariana, Adele, i'm looking at you ladies!
so i do think Homegrown is probably a good bet for the cutoff threshold. For now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2015 12:17:29 GMT -5
Dont forget House Party and Renegades. They will likely make it for sure. And it is way way way too soon to tell the outcome of Drag Me Down, Hotline Bling, Downtown, What Do You Mean, and Wildest Dreams, they could suddenly flop like how Maroon 5s Summer song did. Everyone keeps saying Adele will come soon for a year. She still has not put her single up and who knows when it will be.
Also I think Hit The Quan and This Could Be Us could end up sneaking in and barely making the chart on the last 2 weeks like how New Flame and 0 to 100 did last year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2015 12:23:00 GMT -5
i don't think its too soon to tell for those i listed as likely, personally... my prediction is that they will all make it in. i don't see any of them scoring less points than maroon 5's song did. and yes, house party and renegades are in there too, in the "others" i didn't mention.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2015 15:58:16 GMT -5
Total Hot 100 points by artist so far this year, based on my estimates and including features. Working on the entire chart and will post once I have it done. Since I haven't done all the artists yet, there's a chance I'm missing someone from this list, but I don't think so.
01 - 2353880 - Taylor Swift 02 - 1724220 - The Weeknd 03 - 1717410 - Nicki Minaj 04 - 1511650 - Mark Ronson 05 - 1511650 - Bruno Mars 06 - 1433460 - Drake 07 - 1363940 - Ed Sheeran 08 - 1262120 - Meghan Trainor 09 - 1261840 - Chris Brown 10 - 1243670 - Maroon 5 11 - 1137840 - Fetty Wap 12 - 1048880 - Charlie Puth
* Point totals are pretty close on some, and based on my estimates, so there is a decent margin of error.
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macabyan
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Post by macabyan on Sept 1, 2015 21:41:56 GMT -5
Trap Queen is now the 12th song in history to stay in the top 10 for 25 weeks.
Here is my share of prediction along with their peaks:
1. Uptown Funk (1) 2. Thinking Out Loud (2) 3. See You Again (1) 4. Trap Queen (2) 5. Sugar (2) 6. Blank Space (1) 7. Cheerleader (1) 8. Can't Feel My Face (1) 9. Shut Up and Dance (4) 10. Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey) (3) 11. Watch Me (3) 12. Love Me Like You Do (3) 13. Bad Blood (1) 14. Take Me to Church (2) 15. Want to Want Me (5) 16. Shake It Off (4) 17. Lean On (4) 18. The Hills (4) 19. Lips Are Movin' (4) 20. I'm Not the Only One (5)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2015 21:51:05 GMT -5
is Trap Queen the first Rap song to stay 25 weeks?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2015 22:16:33 GMT -5
is Trap Queen the first Rap song to stay 25 weeks? According to Billboard, no. They consider Party Rock Anthem to be a rap song.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2015 22:33:53 GMT -5
How the hell is Party Rock Anthem a Rap song?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2015 9:48:23 GMT -5
How the hell is Party Rock Anthem a Rap song? For the same reason that Gangnam Style is considered a rap song by Billboard. Rapping is "spoken or chanted rhyming lyrics". The components of rapping include "content", "flow" (rhythm and rhyme), and "delivery". Rapping is distinct from spoken-word poetry in that it is performed in time to a beat. Rapping is often associated with and a primary ingredient of hip-hop music, but the origins of the phenomenon can be said to predate hip-hop culture by centuries. It can also be found in alternative rock such as that of Cake and the Red Hot Chili Peppers. Not to take anything away from the hip-hop or gangster rap legends, but rapping isn't technically what most people think of when they hear the word "rap"... and it doesn't require a certain kind of musical arrangement or instrumentation.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2015 10:11:58 GMT -5
Did Daniel get busy again? :(
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85la
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Post by 85la on Sept 5, 2015 16:09:55 GMT -5
Did it the hard way..... added up all the reported/estimated airplay and streams over all weeks. The totals might not be exactly correct, but they should be pretty close to the actuals. I wonder what's the airplay total of "we belong together".. cuz its sale was so lousy that could not even drive it to anywhere near decade-end.. I suspect its airplay statistics would be MUCH MORE THAN MIND-BLOWING for that's the only reason why it's not only on decade-end, but the top of it.. Yes, We Belong Together most definitely topped the 2000's Decade-End list because its airplay WAS mind-blowing, being the first song to break the 200 mil per week audience record and topping the airplay chart for 16 weeks. It doesn't get a whole lot of recurrent play though, so its total is probably similar to that of Blurred Lines (with adjusted time frames).
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Sept 5, 2015 23:40:18 GMT -5
I wonder what's the airplay total of "we belong together".. cuz its sale was so lousy that could not even drive it to anywhere near decade-end.. I suspect its airplay statistics would be MUCH MORE THAN MIND-BLOWING for that's the only reason why it's not only on decade-end, but the top of it.. Yes, We Belong Together most definitely topped the 2000's Decade-End list because its airplay WAS mind-blowing, being the first song to break the 200 mil per week audience record and topping the airplay chart for 16 weeks. It doesn't get a whole lot of recurrent play though, so its total is probably similar to that of Blurred Lines (with adjusted time frames). Wait.. We Belong Together was sold less than 2 million copies while Blurred Lines 7 millions.. Then with similar airplay the former was the #1 song of decade and the latter about #11?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2015 0:02:22 GMT -5
Yes, We Belong Together most definitely topped the 2000's Decade-End list because its airplay WAS mind-blowing, being the first song to break the 200 mil per week audience record and topping the airplay chart for 16 weeks. It doesn't get a whole lot of recurrent play though, so its total is probably similar to that of Blurred Lines (with adjusted time frames). Wait.. We Belong Together was sold less than 2 million copies while Blurred Lines 7 millions.. Then with similar airplay the former was the #1 song of decade and the latter about #11? Times have changed...
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Daniel Collins
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Post by Daniel Collins on Sept 6, 2015 4:11:05 GMT -5
Yes, We Belong Together most definitely topped the 2000's Decade-End list because its airplay WAS mind-blowing, being the first song to break the 200 mil per week audience record and topping the airplay chart for 16 weeks. It doesn't get a whole lot of recurrent play though, so its total is probably similar to that of Blurred Lines (with adjusted time frames). Wait.. We Belong Together was sold less than 2 million copies while Blurred Lines 7 millions.. Then with similar airplay the former was the #1 song of decade and the latter about #11? This doesn't have a connection with the decades' rank but the parent album of "We Belong Together" has sold 6 million. (4.96M are sold in 2005) .Albums are still selling good in 2005 200M is very huge back then. It is so ahead of other 2000s song in terms of airplay. Regarding decades position. "Blurred Lines" points is adjusted because it's included in the streaming era. (Something I though you already know) BL has 21 weeks in top 10 (weighted less) and WBT has 23. There are already 16 songs in this decade which spend more weeks in top 10 compared to BL (and we're just halfway thorugh the decade) .WBT is 3rd place in terms of # of weeks in top 10 in 2000s.
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Daniel Collins
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Post by Daniel Collins on Sept 6, 2015 4:11:47 GMT -5
Wait.. We Belong Together was sold less than 2 million copies while Blurred Lines 7 millions.. Then with similar airplay the former was the #1 song of decade and the latter about #11? Times have changed...The summary of the post above
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Sept 7, 2015 1:23:39 GMT -5
What about We Found Love? I think had it not been cut off, it would have finished either the top 3 in 2011 or 4-6 in 2012 since the top 3 songs of that year had a longer chart run than WFL. Oh wait I was not talking about commercial performance.. I was meant to say We Found Love is a genius track and is my favorite song from him
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Sept 7, 2015 1:25:24 GMT -5
Wait.. We Belong Together was sold less than 2 million copies while Blurred Lines 7 millions.. Then with similar airplay the former was the #1 song of decade and the latter about #11? This doesn't have a connection with the decades' rank but the parent album of "We Belong Together" has sold 6 million. (4.96M are sold in 2005) .Albums are still selling good in 2005 200M is very huge back then. It is so ahead of other 2000s song in terms of airplay. Regarding decades position. "Blurred Lines" points is adjusted because it's included in the streaming era. (Something I though you already know) BL has 21 weeks in top 10 (weighted less) and WBT has 23. There are already 16 songs in this decade which spend more weeks in top 10 compared to BL (and we're just halfway thorugh the decade) .WBT is 3rd place in terms of # of weeks in top 10 in 2000s. I know these things, thanks for refreshing my mind though! Anyway just not normal to see a song never topped a single moment at digital chart could be the #1 of the decade..
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