Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2015 15:55:52 GMT -5
I'm thinking the cut off for this year's top 100 will be somewhere around 130k possibly, by the looks of things right now. Don't hold me to that, but that's my best guess right now. So for Ariana's 3 weeks, that will require a really big first week... like 50-60k... and then a couple 40k weeks. Tall order, but not impossible if it's a slam dunk smasher for the ages. Or... it has a decent first week and then takes its time and smashes well into the 2016 year. Or... it tanks and life as you know it is over.
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Oct 1, 2015 0:27:50 GMT -5
SO BAD THAT "UPTOWN FUNK" DOES NOT CROSS OVER TWO YEAR-END CHART.. SO BAD!!!! I mean, in the best-case scenario, it could even make #1 on one year-end and #10-12 on another. ("SMOOTH" only made #19 in 1999 and #2 in 2000... "UPTOWN" could easily outdo it if its chart run is not crammed all in one year except for one week..)
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 1, 2015 1:17:56 GMT -5
SO BAD THAT "UPTOWN FUNK" DOES NOT CROSS OVER TWO YEAR-END CHART.. SO BAD!!!! I mean, in the best-case scenario, it could even make #1 on one year-end and #10-12 on another. ("SMOOTH" only made #19 in 1999 and #2 in 2000... "UPTOWN" could easily outdo it if its chart run is not crammed all in one year except for one week..) It spent 14/15(?) weeks at #1, is the #1 song of this year by a longshot, and is STILL top 15 on the Hot 100 after being released nearly a year ago. Is that not enough?
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macabyan
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Post by macabyan on Oct 1, 2015 22:32:44 GMT -5
How about 679? With Fetty's album sales to be released, it seems it has a big chance to finish Top 30. With Good for You and What Do You Mean in mind, would Hey Mama make it or not?
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Oct 1, 2015 23:55:19 GMT -5
SO BAD THAT "UPTOWN FUNK" DOES NOT CROSS OVER TWO YEAR-END CHART.. SO BAD!!!! I mean, in the best-case scenario, it could even make #1 on one year-end and #10-12 on another. ("SMOOTH" only made #19 in 1999 and #2 in 2000... "UPTOWN" could easily outdo it if its chart run is not crammed all in one year except for one week..) It spent 14/15(?) weeks at #1, is the #1 song of this year by a longshot, and is STILL top 15 on the Hot 100 after being released nearly a year ago. Is that not enough? You didn't get what I was talking about
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 5, 2015 14:38:49 GMT -5
How far behind Jealous, Time Of Our Lives, 45S, Talking Body, Somebody, Animals, Centuries and I Don't F With You is Good For You?
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Oct 6, 2015 3:46:22 GMT -5
Any guesstimates as to where Like I'm Gonna Lose You could land? It is gaining quite a bit rn That's a wild card, that one. Probably somewhere between #70 and not making the top 100. Haha. So hard to even guesstimate. Too. Many. Variables. Yeah, it's hard to guess with that song, but I think it should make the top 100. It's probably going to be top 10 on the Hot 100 by the end of the year looking at how well it's doing now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 8:48:09 GMT -5
How far behind Jealous, Time Of Our Lives, 45S, Talking Body, Somebody, Animals, Centuries and I Don't F With You is Good For You? Good For You should pull ahead of all of them in the coming weeks. It's about 60k behind Jealous.
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yuh yuh
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Post by yuh yuh on Oct 6, 2015 10:14:53 GMT -5
In what number is On My Mind right now?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 10:59:28 GMT -5
In what number is On My Mind right now? I have it at #262 this week. That's out of 459 songs to appear on the Hot 100 thus far during the chart year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 11:14:35 GMT -5
Looking ahead to next week...
Cheerleader should move up another spot to #9 and still has time to move head of Earned It in the coming weeks.
Watch Me will be within striking distance of LMLYD, but probably will need 2 weeks.
The Hills should move ahead of INTOO and LAM next week... while Lean On will do the same in the weeks to follow.
Where Are U Now will move ahead of Style next week, and then AATB in the next few weeks.
Fight Song will move ahead of GDFR, and then jump over HIG and PTB the following week.
Worth It needs to hold next week to move ahead of HM... it needs about 6300 points.
Good For You's drop will determine how far it jumps next week... with a solid hold it could take out FFS.
679 will go top 40 and Photograph will too within 2 weeks.
Flex is looking at top 50. So Is WDYM... it'll be close next week.
Hotline Bling will obviously make a big jump... top 75 at least.
Wildest Dreams will debut... probably around #90-95ish unless it has a larger week-to-week gain.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 12:08:14 GMT -5
Hit The Quan, Ex's & Oh's and Downtown are all about 3 or 4 weeks away, max, unless they suddenly start dropping. They will push Sangria and Homegrown down to #99 and #100, respectively. And it looks like Back To Back, Where Ya At, and/or Like I'm Gonna Lose You will likely push Sangria and Homegrown off my predictions by year's end. Annnnd a few other potentials we've already discussed as possibilities as well.
6 weeks to go!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 13:28:58 GMT -5
Hypothetical:
If Shut Up And Dance can manage to stay somewhere around its current weekly point total for the remaining 6 weeks, it will move ahead of Blank Space on my list.
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 6, 2015 13:46:10 GMT -5
I can't see Worth It making another week.. :/ I'm also shocked at how long Flex is lasting!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 14:16:00 GMT -5
I can't see Worth It making another week.. :/ I'm also shocked at how long Flex is lasting! Yeah, Worth It has had an amazing run but I too think it's dunzo after this week. I was visiting family out of state this weekend and Flex came on a pop station. First time I've ever heard it, tbh. Mind you, I don't listen to urban radio stations... or radio that much period anymore... but it was nice to hear it since until now I've been like... huh?
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 6, 2015 14:26:27 GMT -5
I can't see Worth It making another week.. :/ I'm also shocked at how long Flex is lasting! Yeah, Worth It has had an amazing run but I too think it's dunzo after this week. I was visiting family out of state this weekend and Flex came on a pop station. First time I've ever heard it, tbh. Mind you, I don't listen to urban radio stations... or radio that much period anymore... but it was nice to hear it since until now I've been like... huh? It's not a terrible song, I'd rather it in the top 10 than Watch Me or Fetty Trash, but I'm still surprised at how big it got! I am very excited to see how close your predictions will be! I think they will be quite close :) Excited for the new year too, the songs dominating the top 10 this year haven't been my favourite, I think this has been my least favourite of music in.. a long time! Especially songs at the top of the charts, stuff in 20/30 region has been primarily better, imo. Also hoping for a better turnover of the #1 spot next year
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 14:52:39 GMT -5
i just went down the current top 100 and it turns out i personally like exactly 40% of it. there are some other than are tolerable, but these are what i for sure like, sick of them or not:
01 uptown funk 02 thinking out loud 03 blank space 04 shut up and dance 05 take me to church 06 cheerleader 07 love me like you do 08 can’t feel my face 09 the hills 10 lean on 11 style 12 where are u now 13 fight song 14 jealous 15 animals 16 centuries 17 take your time 18 love me harder 19 i don’t mind 20 photograph 21 elastic heart 22 truffle butter 23 you know you like it 24 one last time 25 habits 26 uma thurman 27 what do you mean 28 riptide 29 cool for the summer 30 stitches 31 don’t 32 chandelier 33 budapest 34 heartbeat song 35 ghost 36 waves 37 hotline bling 38 prayer in c 39 drag me down 40 outside
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 14:59:28 GMT -5
How about 679? With Fetty's album sales to be released, it seems it has a big chance to finish Top 30. With Good for You and What Do You Mean in mind, would Hey Mama make it or not? 679 definitely has the potential to be in the top 30... i'd even say it's very likely... Good For You and What Do You Mean should both make it too... which would push Jealous, Hey Mama and Worth It out. GDFR is not safe either. Mind you, as always, this is just based on my point estimations... the official list will likely have several differences in actual points and rank.
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 6, 2015 15:08:08 GMT -5
Oo! Here is mine, about the same as yours. Songs in italics are songs I like but wouldn't necessarily go out of my way to listen to (but wouldn't turn it off if it came on the radio)
#6 Blank Space #7 Shut Up & Dance #11 Love Me Like You Do #14 Bad Blood #15 Shake It Off #16 Want To Want Me #20 Lean On #22 Style #27 Fight Song #28 Hey Mama #29 Worth It #30 Jealous #33 Talking Body #36 Centuries #37 Good For You #39 Take Your Time #40 Love Me Harder #41 I Don't Mind #48 Elastic Heart #49 The Heart Wants What It Wants #53 You Know You Like It #54 One Last Time #55 Chains #56 Habits #58 Girl Crush #59 Uma Thurman #64 Cool For The Summer #65 Locked Away #68 Stitches #69 Hanging Tree #73 Bang Bang #77 Chandelier #78 Renegades #80 Heartbeat Song #82 Ghost #85 Marvin Gaye #90 Drag Me Down #92 I Want You To Know #99 Outside
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Oct 6, 2015 15:14:25 GMT -5
At the moment I like every song in the top ten, and it's been a while since I've been able to way that, which is why I'll be so pissed off if Watch Me makes the top ten on the final list and f**ks everything up.
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 6, 2015 15:19:53 GMT -5
I just realised, Taylor is the only female in the top 10! The closest to that low in recent time has been 2 in 2013, everything before this and after 2006 (as far back as I can check on Billboard) has been more than 4
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Oct 6, 2015 15:23:41 GMT -5
I just realised, Taylor is the only female in the top 10! The closest to that low in recent time has been 2 in 2013, everything before this and after 2006 (as far back as I can check on Billboard) has been more than 4 Since you bring this up, I wonder when the last time was when there was only one male in the year end top ten.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 15:28:20 GMT -5
Do you think Mr Probz Waves is safe in making year end?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 15:35:16 GMT -5
I thought this year was very interesting. Several big names were missing (some I like), giving an opportunity for new artists to make a name for themselves, music returning to a more urban-influenced sound, and there's been even more variety. The only thing I don't like is the fact that Vine is making crappy songs popular, and there's hardly been any rap songs I've liked, as a rap fan, is very frustrating and disappointing to me. I'm surprised you don't like "Can't Feel My Face" with how energetic and fun-sounding it is. Also, I thought most of the #1's were pretty good ("Bad Blood" is really the only #1 hit from this year I don't like). I actually don't care that much on how many songs are #1, I feel like having too many #1 songs kind of makes it not special, I think having less #1 makes it even more rewarding and special for songs that get there and with streaming added as a factor, is something you're going to have to get used to. And honestly, I find this year's music better than the very early 2010's and some 2000's years.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 15:43:03 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 16:07:57 GMT -5
I just realised, Taylor is the only female in the top 10! The closest to that low in recent time has been 2 in 2013, everything before this and after 2006 (as far back as I can check on Billboard) has been more than 4 Since you bring this up, I wonder when the last time was when there was only one male in the year end top ten. The closest I could find was 1999 - 1 solo male and 1 male group: 1 Cher Believe 2 TLC No Scrubs 3 Monica Angel Of Mine 4 Whitney Houston Heartbreak Hotel 5 Britney Spears ...Baby One More Time 6 Sixpence None The Richer Kiss Me 7 Christina Aguilera Genie In A Bottle 8 Sugar Ray Every Morning 9 Deborah Cox Nobody's Supposed To Be Here 10 Ricky Martin Livin' La Vida Loca The earlier decades 50s-70s seem dominated by male acts.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Oct 6, 2015 16:09:51 GMT -5
Males getting shafted on my birth year, lol.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 16:26:30 GMT -5
Yay my questions got ignored yet again...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 16:37:12 GMT -5
Males getting shafted on my birth year, lol. your birth year? dear god. i guess i've got a few years on you.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 16:38:28 GMT -5
Do you think Mr Probz Waves is safe in making year end? i think so. as of this week, anyway. i don't think we'll have enough new entries to push it out in 6 weeks time. not on my list anyway. and yes to your other question.
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