bigbertha
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Post by bigbertha on Jan 2, 2018 19:50:10 GMT -5
^I used 13.0M. River was #6 on Billboard's ODS chart. Thanks.
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Post by Mikeramp/KMR McLean on Jan 4, 2018 17:35:47 GMT -5
I'm positive Thunder passed the cutoff
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kacpe3
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Posts: 543
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Post by kacpe3 on Jan 5, 2018 7:10:42 GMT -5
What are the odds of "How Long" making it to the year end charts? It probably will.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jan 5, 2018 21:11:46 GMT -5
Since when was a January this busy with Bruno Mars, Justin Timberlake, Black Panther, Fifty Shades, Camila Cabello’s album, Rae Sremmurd’s album and Liam Payne. Too much stuff going on
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2018 21:42:39 GMT -5
Since when was a January this busy with Bruno Mars, Justin Timberlake, Black Panther, Fifty Shades, Camila Cabello’s album, Rae Sremmurd’s album and Liam Payne. Too much stuff going on It’s kind of refreshing in my opinion. January is usually my least favorite month of the year but this helps make it more interesting.
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Jan 7, 2018 1:39:36 GMT -5
Looks like the next week will get hit by the year-end boost too. Odd. Anyway for the songs predicted to repeat right now the list looks like:
Rockstar Havana Thunder Too Good At Goodbyes Bodak Yellow What Lovers Do I Get The Bag Sorry Not Sorry Feel It Still
Probable: Young, Dumb and Broke
Maybe: Mi Gente Bank Account Shape Of You 1-800-273-82255
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 7, 2018 10:49:20 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - January 6th 2018
Formula: sales/7.2 + airplay/8400 + on-demand streams/1500 + YouTube streams/1500 + programmed streams/3000 # | +/- | Song | Points | Sales | Airplay | On-Demand | YouTube | Programmed | Total Streams | +/- (%) | 1 | = | Perfect | 59,600 | 163.0k | 129.6m | 12.0m | 14.7m | 10.9m | 37.7m | -3.7 | 2 | = | rockstar | 48,600 | 97.6k | 91.0m | 17.6m | 14.6m | 7.8m | 40.2m | +10.8 | 3 | = | Havana | 48,300 | 93.4k | 130.4m | 9.8m | 17.3m | 5.1m | 32.3m | +11.8 | 4 | +1 | No Limit | 32,200 | 36.6k | 53.9m | 11.2m | 16.6m | 6.2m | 34.2m | +20.8 | 5 | +1 | Thunder | 30,300 | 75.2k | 91.5m | 5.1m | 6.5m | 3.3m | 15.0m | +18.8 | 6 | -2 | Gucci Gang | 29,600 | 44.6k | 22.7m | 10.5m | 19.0m | 3.2m | 32.7m | -0.5 | 7 | = | MotorSport | 28,900 | 41.7k | 38.8m | 9.7m | 15.6m | 4.6m | 30.0m | +14.4 | 8 | = | Too Good At Goodbyes | 27,800 | 47.9k | 84.0m | 8.2m | 6.7m | 3.4m | 18.3m | -12.1 | 9 | +1 | Bad At Love | 25,200 | 41.7k | 93.6m | 5.6m | 4.8m | 3.8m | 14.2m | +8.7 | 10 | +2 | Bodak Yellow | 25,000 | 42.8k | 35.0m | 7.7m | 12.5m | 3.8m | 24.2m | +19.4 |
Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jan 7, 2018 10:57:02 GMT -5
So next week will we see a new number one and two with Finesse and Filthy?
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Jan 7, 2018 11:00:18 GMT -5
So next week will we see a new number one and two with Finesse and Filthy? I don't keep track of exactly how well new songs do, but I'd be surprised if that happened.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 7, 2018 11:11:00 GMT -5
So next week will we see a new number one and two with Finesse and Filthy? Nope. I think Finesse can hit #2 next week. Filthy may debut in the top 10 (7-10 probably).
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Jan 7, 2018 12:16:25 GMT -5
So next week will we see a new number one and two with Finesse and Filthy? Only possibility of those two is Finesse at 2. Airplay is too weak and perfect is still so strong there
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GP
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Post by GP on Jan 7, 2018 13:30:19 GMT -5
With Finesse and Filthy coming, seems like it will be almost impossible for New Rules to hit the TOP10?
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Jan 7, 2018 13:39:28 GMT -5
I heard "Finesse" yesterday, and I really hope it will reach number one. I love it on first listen.
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Jan 7, 2018 14:51:12 GMT -5
With Finesse and Filthy coming, seems like it will be almost impossible for New Rules to hit the TOP10? new rules is still increasing
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Jan 9, 2018 14:48:06 GMT -5
I don't think Filthy will be in the top 10 for very long. I think it's chart run is gonna be more like Malibu, 2U, or Sign Of The Times
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2018 15:47:33 GMT -5
I don't think Filthy will be in the top 10 for very long. I think it's chart run is gonna be more like Malibu, 2U, or Sign Of The Times Yeah it’s already losing in streaming but I’ll bet that it will have a foothold on radio just on name alone.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jan 9, 2018 16:13:07 GMT -5
I got a question. Has a song that topped the year end chart ever charted on the previous year?
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Jan 9, 2018 16:26:07 GMT -5
I got a question. Has a song that topped the year end chart ever charted on the previous year? Uptown Funk in 2014/2015, Thrift Shop in 2012/2013, TiK ToK in 2009/2010, probably some others I can't remember.
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Jan 9, 2018 16:32:08 GMT -5
In response to the previous question about whether or not the #1 of a year charted the previous year No. The closest was Santana Smooth which was 19 on 1999 year end and 2 on 2000 year end. There've been 4 cases of the #1 song repeating to the next year though. Unsurprisingly most of them were in the broken late 90's charts. Gangsta's Paradise: 1 in 1995, 33 in 1996 Macarena: 1 in 1996, 80 in 1997 Candle In The Wind: 1 in 1997, 8 in 1998 (this one of course would have repeated anyway, although lower) Rolling In The Deep: 1 in 2011, 71 in 2012 Shape Of You might be joining that list. In 97-98 and 11-12 both the #1 and #2 repeated, although there's no way Jewel's song would have made it were it not for the brokenness of 1998's chart year. You Were Meant For Me/Foolish Games: 2 in 1997, 87 in 1998 Party Rock Anthem: 2 in 2011, 29 in 2012 To see what I mean about the 1998 chart being broken look at this hot 100, the one where they fixed it. www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/1998-12-05Songs that were previously in the 40's and 30's are dropping way below 50 and even songs from the top 20 are falling by about 15 spots with 12 new songs above 25. So CITW would have repeated anyway but its legendary 1 then 8 wouldn't have happened because the last 19 weeks of its chart run were all below 30. If it weren't for the 52 week rule the entire top 3 on the 2017 year end chart could repeat
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2018 16:37:52 GMT -5
I got a question. Has a song that topped the year end chart ever charted on the previous year? Uptown Funk in 2014/2015, Thrift Shop in 2012/2013, TiK ToK in 2009/2010, probably some others I can't remember. I think that he meant made the Year End List for the previous year. RITD made it to Year End List in 2012 but was 1 in 2011, that was the following year, not previous year for example.
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Post by Mikeramp/KMR McLean on Jan 9, 2018 20:17:56 GMT -5
In response to the previous question about whether or not the #1 of a year charted the previous year No. The closest was Santana Smooth which was 19 on 1999 year end and 2 on 2000 year end. There've been 4 cases of the #1 song repeating to the next year though. Unsurprisingly most of them were in the broken late 90's charts. Gangsta's Paradise: 1 in 1995, 33 in 1996 Macarena: 1 in 1996, 80 in 1997 Candle In The Wind: 1 in 1997, 8 in 1998 (this one of course would have repeated anyway, although lower) Rolling In The Deep: 1 in 2011, 71 in 2012 Shape Of You might be joining that list. In 97-98 and 11-12 both the #1 and #2 repeated, although there's no way Jewel's song would have made it were it not for the brokenness of 1998's chart year. You Were Meant For Me/Foolish Games: 2 in 1997, 87 in 1998 Party Rock Anthem: 2 in 2011, 29 in 2012 To see what I mean about the 1998 chart being broken look at this hot 100, the one where they fixed it. www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/1998-12-05Songs that were previously in the 40's and 30's are dropping way below 50 and even songs from the top 20 are falling by about 15 spots with 12 new songs above 25. So CITW would have repeated anyway but its legendary 1 then 8 wouldn't have happened because the last 19 weeks of its chart run were all below 30. If it weren't for the 52 week rule the entire top 3 on the 2017 year end chart could repeat Predictions for Top 10 repeats: Shape Of You (65-100 range, really could tpdo anything at this point) Despacito (90-100 range, I can see it hopefully doing it) Thats What I Like (95-100 range, see Despacito) HUMBLE. (Miss) SJLT (Miss) Bad And Boujee (Miss) Closer (Miss) BLABR (Miss) Believer (80-100 range, it’s back in the Top 20) Congratulations (Miss) also so the YE #1: BOLD PREDICTION will be The Weeknd’s new song that he will probably release near the end of March, because he is headlining Coachella
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Post by Mikeramp/KMR McLean on Jan 9, 2018 20:20:37 GMT -5
Also I’d say highest song as of snoopdawgs latest update on the list that won’t make the final cut is Gummo. People are quickly realizing that it’s bad, and it’s facing a huge collapse soon. :)
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jan 9, 2018 20:43:58 GMT -5
I got a question. Has a song that topped the year end chart ever charted on the previous year? Uptown Funk in 2014/2015, Thrift Shop in 2012/2013, TiK ToK in 2009/2010, probably some others I can't remember. I meant charted on the previous year end list
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mako
Platinum Member
formerly known as "the one letter"
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Post by mako on Jan 10, 2018 2:43:26 GMT -5
Uptown Funk in 2014/2015, Thrift Shop in 2012/2013, TiK ToK in 2009/2010, probably some others I can't remember. I meant charted on the previous year end list Do you mean like this: (Example) 2018 YE #87 2019 YE #1
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Post by purplefebruary on Jan 10, 2018 4:21:49 GMT -5
also so the YE #1: BOLD PREDICTION will be The Weeknd’s new song that he will probably release near the end of March, because he is headlining Coachella I hope it's a Starboy-level killer of a song and his marketing team actually pull themselves together this time
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Post by Mikeramp/KMR McLean on Jan 10, 2018 7:06:42 GMT -5
also so the YE #1: BOLD PREDICTION will be The Weeknd’s new song that he will probably release near the end of March, because he is headlining Coachella I hope it's a Starboy-level killer of a song and his marketing team actually pull themselves together this time Starboy is my favorite song of the decade so if they top it and promote it correctly then it will SMASH HUGE
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Mylo13 💜
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Post by Mylo13 💜 on Jan 10, 2018 7:30:24 GMT -5
I think that Despacito will miss. It'll probably have something similar to "Cheap Thrills" 2017 run.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 10, 2018 8:55:45 GMT -5
Also I’d say highest song as of snoopdawgs latest update on the list that won’t make the final cut is Gummo. People are quickly realizing that it’s bad, and it’s facing a huge collapse soon. The new formula is going to kill Gummo. If it's like 2016 and 2017 Billboard will change the formula for the Hot 100 dated as February 3.
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kacpe3
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Post by kacpe3 on Jan 10, 2018 9:16:16 GMT -5
I doubt Shape Of You/Despacito/Believer will be making it. Their gains will end soon.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2018 9:38:13 GMT -5
Also I’d say highest song as of snoopdawgs latest update on the list that won’t make the final cut is Gummo. People are quickly realizing that it’s bad, and it’s facing a huge collapse soon. The new formula is going to kill Gummo. If it's like 2016 and 2017 Billboard will change the formula for the Hot 100 dated as February 3.Good riddance to rap dance songs then. You won't be missed :kii:
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