rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,029
Pronouns: he/him/his
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 2, 2018 11:34:46 GMT -5
Well 2017 was very close to the real thing, but not perfect. I think we'll both be in the same league, and suspect you'll be closer. But your formatting is much easier to read than last years. Best of luck!
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brady47
Platinum Member
Joined: February 2013
Posts: 1,449
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Post by brady47 on Nov 2, 2018 12:09:20 GMT -5
Thank you. You have no idea how validating that was to me.
As you're I'm sure aware, this is the tightest fight for #1 song of the year in decades. And there's a number of x-factors which could affects whether God's Plan or Perfect is actually selected as #1 by Billboard. - To move the "Week ending" date on the chart closer to the actual date, early this year Billboard posted 2 charts in the same week. They both covered non-overlapping 7 day periods, but are they both going to be weighted equal to other weeks? We both presume so, but if not, that could reduce Perfect's point count. Advantage: Drake
- The system used by Billboard to calculate points also changed during the BB 2018 year. Will the points of songs before that be recalculated for the year-end? If so, would that improve or reduce Perfect's score. Advantage: none.
- When the 60th anniversary chart came out, Perfect was ahead of God's Plan. Not surprising in August. But this forum looking at that chart speculated that Uptown Funk ended up higher than expected and the theory was that points for Uptown were included even for weeks after the song had been dropped due to the 52/25 rule. Perhaps they still are - it makes some sense. When the top grossing movies of the year are determined, all receipts are included, even when the movie falls out of the top ten. Should recurrent points be included in determining the actual top tracks of the year, rather than of each week? There's a substantial argument for answering "yes". Advantage: Sheeran.
- This is Drake's year. Period. He'll be artist of the year, album of the year and about 20 other categories in the Billboard awards. So there may be a benefit to Billboard to put their thumb on the scale to put Sheeran on top of the year end Hot 100. Sheeran at #1 will be of more interest to more people in the general public. I know it's hard to believe, but there are a lot of people who don't follow the charts who have little or no knowledge of Drake. He just doesn't get played on radio nearly as much, and that's where the great unwashed masses still consume music most often. Sheeran having two #1 songs of the year in a row would be bigger news and give Billboard more publicity. Advantage: Sheeran.
- Least likely to affect the Year-end topper: Simply put, Perfect was the bigger song on the charts. But a significant part of its run was in Billboard calendar year 2016. In fact, if the full chart run of all songs that peaked in 2016 were counted, Perfect would have been the #3 song of 2016 behind Shape of You and Despacito. But if Smooth, the biggest single-run hit in the history of the Hot 100 was never a #1 song of the year, I doubt they'll do anything special for Perfect. Advantage: Drake.
So to me, the actual #1 is a toss-up. But I'm going with Perfect as my pick, if only not to follow the crowd.
The race for #1 on the Year-End has been close in the Streaming Era, except for 2015 when Uptown Funk! was clearly much bigger than Thinking Out Loud. I think 2016 was the closest race: Love Yourself 1,038,710 vs. Sorry 1,018,450 vs. One Dance 997,120. In 2014, the race wasn't that close, but we had three songs fighting for #1: Happy 1,389,830 vs. Dark Horse 1,322,250 vs. All Of Me 1,312,720. 2018 is hard to predict because they changed the formula after mid-year point. They used to changed the formula in early February and I'm not sure how Billboard adjust that for the YE chart. I remember Ride$ saying that Locked Out Of Heaven was "robbed" (not exactly that word) in 2013 when they added YouTube to the formula weeks after LOOH's peak and despite being a six-week #1 that peaked in January it ended up only at #11 on the YE chart. Also, I hope God's Plan is 2018. Not only because Drake is my favorite artist of the year and I hate Ed Sheeran's music, but we are in the streaming era and the streaming #1 never won the YE #1. However, the radio #1 has been the YE winner since 2015. Yup, I think in 2014, "Dark Horse" was a bigger hit than "Happy" in the end, but it had too many weeks in 2013 that didn't count for the 2014 calendar year. Also, in 2007, there was another formula change in the middle of the year, which explains why "The Sweet Escape" (#6 sales, #7 radio, #3 year end) ranked higher than "Big Girls Don't Cry (#1 sales, #4 radio, #4 year end), so I would anticipate Billboard will account for this somehow
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brady47
Platinum Member
Joined: February 2013
Posts: 1,449
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Post by brady47 on Nov 2, 2018 12:44:22 GMT -5
I really want "IDGAF" to make the top 100 - hoping it can do it, seems like it'll be REALLY close
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2018 12:48:20 GMT -5
BTW, I don't mean to bring this up, but when I made predictions in 2015, I got highly criticized that broccoli even blocked me.
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kcdawg13
7x Platinum Member
You Are Now Listening to 103.5 Dawn FM
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Post by kcdawg13 on Nov 2, 2018 13:04:23 GMT -5
BTW, I don't mean to bring this up, but when I made predictions in 2015, I got highly criticized that broccoli even blocked me. Probably because back in 2014-2016 there was usually only one predictor who stuck to it all year, so I guess they didn't like anyone else jumping on? I'm not sure, I wasn't there. I did predictions for the latter half of 2017 and most of the beginning of 2018, mako did predictions this year and fhas has kept up with them. It's definitely a different climate now.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Nov 2, 2018 13:07:27 GMT -5
Well 2017 was very close to the real thing, but not perfect. I think we'll both be in the same league, and suspect you'll be closer. But your formatting is much easier to read than last years. Best of luck! George's 2016 was probably the closest one I could imagine. There was a contest to predict it among the users and I only tweaked the positions a little bit plus change a few songs. I only had the #100 songs incorrect in terms of not actually being in the actual Year-End and a few songs that were in but off a few positions.
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,084
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Post by inverse on Nov 2, 2018 13:35:10 GMT -5
George was literally off by only 79 spots in total (plus an unknown quantity, at least 1, for Somewhere On A Beach predicted at 100 and finishing at an number below 100). Given what a mess songs 31-56 are at the moment, all within 100,000 points, it'd be a miracle if this year managed that but it seems really accurate
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Nov 2, 2018 16:43:25 GMT -5
^Yeah. I think the thing that could mess things up is the fact they did the Hot 100 formula adjustment much later than they have, which means if the weekly points had problems before the change, their impact would be greater and the opposite would be true for the weeks using the new formula.
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Nov 2, 2018 18:40:59 GMT -5
I remember George's final predictions being so accurate, with the most notable mistakes was Let Me Love You (Ex: #42, Re: #47), Starving (Ex: #89, Re: #94), then #31-#38 swapped with one another.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2018 18:56:20 GMT -5
Thank you. You have no idea how validating that was to me.
As you're I'm sure aware, this is the tightest fight for #1 song of the year in decades. And there's a number of x-factors which could affects whether God's Plan or Perfect is actually selected as #1 by Billboard. - To move the "Week ending" date on the chart closer to the actual date, early this year Billboard posted 2 charts in the same week. They both covered non-overlapping 7 day periods, but are they both going to be weighted equal to other weeks? We both presume so, but if not, that could reduce Perfect's point count. Advantage: Drake
- The system used by Billboard to calculate points also changed during the BB 2018 year. Will the points of songs before that be recalculated for the year-end? If so, would that improve or reduce Perfect's score. Advantage: none.
- When the 60th anniversary chart came out, Perfect was ahead of God's Plan. Not surprising in August. But this forum looking at that chart speculated that Uptown Funk ended up higher than expected and the theory was that points for Uptown were included even for weeks after the song had been dropped due to the 52/25 rule. Perhaps they still are - it makes some sense. When the top grossing movies of the year are determined, all receipts are included, even when the movie falls out of the top ten. Should recurrent points be included in determining the actual top tracks of the year, rather than of each week? There's a substantial argument for answering "yes". Advantage: Sheeran.
- This is Drake's year. Period. He'll be artist of the year, album of the year and about 20 other categories in the Billboard awards. So there may be a benefit to Billboard to put their thumb on the scale to put Sheeran on top of the year end Hot 100. Sheeran at #1 will be of more interest to more people in the general public. I know it's hard to believe, but there are a lot of people who don't follow the charts who have little or no knowledge of Drake. He just doesn't get played on radio nearly as much, and that's where the great unwashed masses still consume music most often. Sheeran having two #1 songs of the year in a row would be bigger news and give Billboard more publicity. Advantage: Sheeran.
- Least likely to affect the Year-end topper: Simply put, Perfect was the bigger song on the charts. But a significant part of its run was in Billboard calendar year 2016. In fact, if the full chart run of all songs that peaked in 2016 were counted, Perfect would have been the #3 song of 2016 behind Shape of You and Despacito. But if Smooth, the biggest single-run hit in the history of the Hot 100 was never a #1 song of the year, I doubt they'll do anything special for Perfect. Advantage: Drake.
So to me, the actual #1 is a toss-up. But I'm going with Perfect as my pick, if only not to follow the crowd.
The race for #1 on the Year-End has been close in the Streaming Era, except for 2015 when Uptown Funk! was clearly much bigger than Thinking Out Loud. I think 2016 was the closest race: Love Yourself 1,038,710 vs. Sorry 1,018,450 vs. One Dance 997,120. In 2014, the race wasn't that close, but we had three songs fighting for #1: Happy 1,389,830 vs. Dark Horse 1,322,250 vs. All Of Me 1,312,720. 2018 is hard to predict because they changed the formula after mid-year point. They used to changed the formula in early February and I'm not sure how Billboard adjust that for the YE chart. I remember Ride$ saying that Locked Out Of Heaven was "robbed" (not exactly that word) in 2013 when they added YouTube to the formula weeks after LOOH's peak and despite being a six-week #1 that peaked in January it ended up only at #11 on the YE chart. Also, I hope God's Plan is 2018. Not only because Drake is my favorite artist of the year and I hate Ed Sheeran's music, but we are in the streaming era and the streaming #1 never won the YE #1. However, the radio #1 has been the YE winner since 2015. Isn't the radio year end number one Meant To Be?
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Nov 2, 2018 19:01:32 GMT -5
I consider posting my Year-End Predictions like by next week.
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hydraflare
Gold Member
RIP Juice WRLD
Joined: January 2018
Posts: 740
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Post by hydraflare on Nov 2, 2018 23:29:06 GMT -5
My predictions for the bottom 10: 91. Mercy 92. One Number Away 93. Changes 94. Say Something 95. Dura 96. Outside Today 97. Broken 98. I'm A Mess 99. IDGAF 100. All Girls Are The Same
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2018 23:58:39 GMT -5
My predictions for the bottom 10: 91. Mercy 92. One Number Away 93. Changes 94. Say Something 95. Dura 96. Outside Today 97. Broken 98. I'm A Mess 99. IDGAF 100. All Girls Are The Same If this is true, that would mean that:
101. Chun Li 102. Powerglide 103. APESHIT 104. New Freezer 105. Mi Gente 106. Believer
107-110 will probably be Beautiful, Mo Bamba, I Love It and Drip Too Hard.
111-112 will probably be Sit Next To Me and Drowns The Whiskey.
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imbondz
2x Platinum Member
Joined: January 2006
Posts: 2,586
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Post by imbondz on Nov 3, 2018 0:02:49 GMT -5
How is Finesse so high? I felt like that flew up the charts but didn’t last long.
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monkeydluffy
Gold Member
R.I.P. Nipsey Hussle | R.I.P. Juice WRLD | R.I.P. Pop Smoke | R.I.P. King Von
Joined: July 2017
Posts: 534
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Post by monkeydluffy on Nov 3, 2018 0:04:23 GMT -5
My predictions for the bottom 10: 91. Mercy 92. One Number Away 93. Changes 94. Say Something 95. Dura 96. Outside Today 97. Broken 98. I'm A Mess 99. IDGAF 100. All Girls Are The Same I don’t see I’m a Mess getting enough in the next 4 weeks to make it. Be nice if it did tho
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2018 0:14:03 GMT -5
At this current rate, I think Mo Bamba, Beautiful and Drip Too Hard will miss the 2018 year end list. All 3 could have made it if they had one more week to rack up points.
Beautiful and Drip Too Hard will probably be caught between years unless they have long staying power going into 2019. I see Mo Bamba easily making the 2019 year end list however.
I Love It is falling quickly and I don't see it getting enough points for the top 100, although it probably would have made the list if it was released earlier this year. This will definitely be caught between years.
Since Shallow's chart run will be between 2018 and 2019, it will 100% miss the 2018 year end list and most will most likely miss the 2019 one as well unless it can keep itself stable. It probably would have made any year end list if it had a full chart run in that specific year however.
High Hopes will miss the 2018 year end list but will probably make the 2019 year end list as it is still gaining in points.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2018 0:16:44 GMT -5
I think beautiful is gonna be 100
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monkeydluffy
Gold Member
R.I.P. Nipsey Hussle | R.I.P. Juice WRLD | R.I.P. Pop Smoke | R.I.P. King Von
Joined: July 2017
Posts: 534
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Post by monkeydluffy on Nov 3, 2018 0:40:20 GMT -5
I think #100 will be powerglide or IDGAF
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samo🦕
Diamond Member
not really a movie person
looking at the big sky
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 15,378
Pronouns: they/them
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Post by samo🦕 on Nov 3, 2018 6:39:20 GMT -5
BTW, I don't mean to bring this up, but when I made predictions in 2015, I got highly criticized that broccoli even blocked me. Probably because back in 2014-2016 there was usually only one predictor who stuck to it all year, so I guess they didn't like anyone else jumping on? I'm not sure, I wasn't there. I did predictions for the latter half of 2017 and most of the beginning of 2018, mako did predictions this year and fhas has kept up with them. It's definitely a different climate now. He got criticised because he refused to give factual reasons for the positions of some of his songs that seemed way out of where they should be.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Nov 3, 2018 10:18:24 GMT -5
How is Finesse so high? I felt like that flew up the charts but didn’t last long. Finesse was big during its peak. Maybe it's kinda underrated because it had to compete against the biggest hits of the year (God's Plan, Perfect, Havana, rockstar and Meant To Be).
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Nov 3, 2018 12:30:05 GMT -5
fhas How many points do Drip Too Hard and Most People Are Good have? I'll add them. New update in ~60 minutes.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2018 12:39:04 GMT -5
Probably because back in 2014-2016 there was usually only one predictor who stuck to it all year, so I guess they didn't like anyone else jumping on? I'm not sure, I wasn't there. I did predictions for the latter half of 2017 and most of the beginning of 2018, mako did predictions this year and fhas has kept up with them. It's definitely a different climate now. He got criticised because he refused to give factual reasons for the positions of some of his songs that seemed way out of where they should be. My way was basically the same way as rockgolfs way btw.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Nov 3, 2018 13:29:03 GMT -5
November 3, 2018 - 50/53 weeks (94.34%)
Added this week: ---> Most People Are Good (Luke Bryan) ---> Ring (Cardi B feat. Kehlani) ---> Drip Too Hard (Lil Baby & Gunna) Locked this week: ---> Eastside (Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid) Estimated Cutoff ---> 190,000 points (margin of error: 3% --- 195,700-184,300) *I think the song at #100 will be around 190k points, but it's possible that it ends up with 195.7k-184.3k
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,084
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Post by inverse on Nov 3, 2018 13:44:07 GMT -5
Highly possible Drip Too Hard makes it. I have a weird feeling #100 will be Believer, I know it isn't lined up to be there on either set of predictions but the bottom 10 are never fully correct and it could easily be above IDGAF, 8000 isn't an impossible margin of error especially considering IDGAF's chart run had so many weeks below 70 where predicting the points really isn't easy
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Post by Naos on Nov 3, 2018 14:20:52 GMT -5
"Lie" by NF I expect to get caught between years as it's just now gaining traction in its 13th week.
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samo🦕
Diamond Member
not really a movie person
looking at the big sky
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 15,378
Pronouns: they/them
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Post by samo🦕 on Nov 3, 2018 14:30:41 GMT -5
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rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,029
Pronouns: he/him/his
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 3, 2018 16:49:25 GMT -5
"Lie" by NF I expect to get caught between years as it's just now gaining traction in its 13th week. I think Lie still has a lot of room to grow and will make it to the top 100 of 2019.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2018 17:22:40 GMT -5
Looks like nonstop is gonna be top 50
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2018 18:45:52 GMT -5
Highly possible Drip Too Hard makes it. I have a weird feeling #100 will be Believer, I know it isn't lined up to be there on either set of predictions but the bottom 10 are never fully correct and it could easily be above IDGAF, 8000 isn't an impossible margin of error especially considering IDGAF's chart run had so many weeks below 70 where predicting the points really isn't easy If it maintains its current amount of points for the last 3 weeks, it might just beat out All Girls Are The Same, which would put it at #100. (Assuming Happier, Trip, I'm A Mess and Broken make it too.)
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Nov 3, 2018 20:10:42 GMT -5
Highly possible Drip Too Hard makes it. I have a weird feeling #100 will be Believer, I know it isn't lined up to be there on either set of predictions but the bottom 10 are never fully correct and it could easily be above IDGAF, 8000 isn't an impossible margin of error especially considering IDGAF's chart run had so many weeks below 70 where predicting the points really isn't easy If it keeps up with the points it currently has, it will sneak in placing above All Girls Are The Same. That way, Drip Too Hard will likely be the Here/Havana of this year's YE.
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