mako
Platinum Member
formerly known as "the one letter"
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Post by mako on Jan 8, 2019 0:30:50 GMT -5
So y'all, I won't be continuing my predictions since my laptop broke (it isn't salvageable..).
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rockgolf
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Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
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Posts: 2,050
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Post by rockgolf on Jan 8, 2019 12:52:52 GMT -5
So y'all, I won't be continuing my predictions since my laptop broke (it isn't salvageable..).
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T. Eddy
New Member
I post like once a month
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Post by T. Eddy on Jan 8, 2019 17:37:10 GMT -5
Given that my initial forecast was well-received, that it's been a month, and now that the Christmas songs are gone, I'll give updates on what happened to all of the predictions I made back in December. All of the info used will be from the January 12th 2019 billboard hot 100.
Predicted to be caught between years:
I'm a Mess(Left the week of December 15th, no chance of making 2019) I Love It(Left the week of December 15th, no chance of making 2019) She got the Best of Me(Still charting, and rose to a new peak of #31 this week, so this one actually has a chance. I'm moving it to possibly caught between years) Ring(Left the week of December 22nd, no chance of making 2019) You Say(Still charting, rose to a new peak of #34 this week, and gaining mainstream radio traction. Moving it to possibly caught between years)
Predicted to possibly be caught between years:
Lose It(Left the week of December 15th, and although it's still doing well on the country charts, it failed to reappear this week with the Christmas songs gone, so virtually no chance of making 2019) Uproar(Still currently charting at #35, and is doing decently well on radio, so it has a chance) Broken(Left the week of December 29th, failed to return with the Christmas songs gone, and finally falling off on radio, which was its strongest category, so no chance of making 2019) Shallow(Still currently charting at #29, still doing well for digital sales, and slowly picking up radio traction, so it has a chance) Beautiful(Still charting and rose to a new peak of #28 this week, while having solid traction in all 3 categories, actually has a pretty solid chance of making 2019)
Predicted to make 2019 despite missing 2018:
Drip Too Hard(Not yet locked, but still in the top 10 and doing well enough to pretty much be locked) High Hopes(Pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be locked) Mo Bamba(No longer in the top 10, but still in the top 20 and close to being locked) Breathin(Still in the top 20 despite being overshadowed by Thank U, Next, going to be locked soon)
Predicted to be guaranteed to make 2019:
Thank U, Next(Was #1 for 7 weeks, unanimously agreed to be locked) Sicko Mode(Still top 5, agreed to be locked) Happier(No longer top 5, but still top 10, most agree it's either already or really close to being locked) Without Me(Current #1, agreed to be locked) ZEZE(Currently top 10, going to be locked soon) Wake Up in the Sky(Still top 20, stable, going to be locked soon) Trip(Fell out of the top 20, but still doing decently well, so while not guaranteed, it's very likely) Sunflower(Rose all the way to #3 since last month, going to be locked very soon) Eastside(Current #11, seems poised to crack the top 10, going to be locked soon) Taki Taki(Still in the top 20 while maintaining its well rounded strength, likely to be locked soon) Leave Me Alone(Hasn't made the top 20 yet, but currently #22 and still growing, likely to be locked soon)
Predicted to be likely to make 2019:
Girls Like You(Still unfortunately top 10, so still very likely to make it unless it collapses suddenly) Lucid Dreams(Currently top 20 but slowly headed out, so likely to make it) Better Now(Returned to the top 10, so very likely to make it) Youngblood(Still top 20, likely to make it) Money(Returned to the top 20, and seems likely to make it) Better(Returned to the top 30, but growing slower than I expected. I still think it has a good chance since Khalid songs usually have above average to great longevity)
Predicted to maybe make 2019:
MIA(Still top 20, and although it's unlikely to return to the top 5, it has better longevity than I expected, so I'm moving it to likely) Love Lies(Has 6 weeks before it gets put at risk to falling out due to the 25-52 rule, and as it's currently at #27, I'll have to move it to unlikely) I Like It(Seems to be falling slowly enough to still have a decent chance of making 2019, and it has a good 13 weeks before it gets put at risk of the 25-52 rule. As it's at #26, that's probably going to be how it falls out) FEFE(Left the week of December 22nd and failed to return this week, so thankfully it will miss the 2019 year end) In my Feelings(Left the week of December 15th, which was much earlier than I expected, but it didn't return this week, so it's gone for good, no chance of it making 2019)
Predicted to be unlikely to make 2019:
Natural(Currently at #25, Imagine Dragons songs tend to have good longevity, and there isn't an obvious successor single yet(unless Bad Liar gets a better push), so I'm moving it to maybe) God is a Woman(Left the week of December 29th, didn't return this week, so no chance of making 2019) Taste(Left the week of December 29th, didn't return this week, so no chance of making 2019) Yes Indeed(Left the week of December 15th, no chance of making 2019) Nonstop(Left the week of December 15th, no chance of making 2019) Tequila(Left the week of December 15th, no chance of making 2019) Lie(Left the week of December 29th, no chance of making 2019)
Predicted to be too early to tell, but still had a chance:
When the Party's Over(Currently #68, and not getting the radio support it needs, so unlikely) Armed and Dangerous(Currently #56, seems stable, but still unlikely) Be Alright(Just broke the top 40 and has radio traction, so I'm moving it to maybe) Consequences(Currently #51, slowly gaining traction, but how much it will get is hard to tell, still too early to tell) Dip(Has been falling in and out of the charts for weeks now, and currently only #88, so seems unlikely right now) Good Girl(Currently #47, doing well on the country charts, and gaining lots of airplay, so I'm moving it to maybe) Best Shot(Cracked the top 40 at #37 this week and has solid traction, so maybe) Last Shot(Currently #53, and while new to the hot 100, it's been on the country charts for a very long time, so unlikely) Sixteen(Currently #42, and has some mild traction, but still too early to tell) Burning Man(Currently #45 and has solid traction, so maybe)
New Songs to Watch out for:
Wow.(Just rocketed up to #13, Post Malone songs tend to have good longevity, and it arrived just in time to replace Better Now. My early guess puts it as likely) Baby Shark(Made an unexpected debut at #32 this week and managed to break the top 10 in the UK this week. While the UK is much more friendly to novelty singles than the US, the fact that Baby Shark debuted this high is still noteworthy. Still putting it as unlikely though, since most novelty songs have very poor longevity) Close to Me(Rose to #33 this week, and has solid radio traction, but it's still somewhat early, so maybe) Drunk Me(Would've included it with the other normally forgotten country songs list that I made last month, but I thought it was going to fall out with the Christmas songs. However, it survived, broke the top 40 at #39, and is doing very well on the country charts, so maybe) Sweet but Psycho(Went #1 in several countries all over the world, already has serious traction on sales, and has potential to be a radio powerhouse. Putting it as too early to tell though, since that sales traction might be a fluke. Although I at least see it cracking the top 40 since it's currently #41) Nothing Breaks Like a Heart(This song has been jumping up and down the chart for the entirety of its short run, but this week it got a foothold on the radio chart, and it's always had decent to good sales, so maybe) This Feeling(Rose to a new peak of #50 this week, has decent to good sales, and is slowly picking up on radio. Unlikely, but I'm not counting it out entirely) Girl Like You(The newest addition to the "Moderate Country hits that are rarely talked about but sometimes make the YE club". Too early to tell for this one though) This is It(Another addition to the aforementioned club, also too early to tell with this one) Take it From Me, Millionaire, Down to Honkeytonk, Love Wins, any of the other country songs with some traction(Other additions to this same club. I could see any one of these making the YE, but I can guarantee it won't be all of them) Electricity(Currently #62, just got a foothold on radio, but has a bad habit of leaving the chart then reentering the next week, so unlikely) Envy Me(At #66, and while not doing as well on streaming as I expected, it could become a streaming powerhouse, still unlikely) Love Someone, Ruin my Life, Body(All 3 are songs that are new this week that I could see potentially being huge radio hits, but I doubt all 3 will make it) Roses(Benny Blanco and P!ATD both have big hits right now, while this is timed just right to be Juice WRLD's next radio single(I don't see Armed and Dangerous getting played on pop radio). While it's unlikely to make the same radio crossover that Lucid Dreams made, it'll at least get decent streaming. Too early to tell where this song will land though)
Yeah, this post is really long, even longer than my initial forecast. However, if I do continue, following months will be shortened as I won't cover songs that either get locked or fall out with no chance of making the year end. By March I doubt I'll have to talk about carryovers from last year at all, so that'll help too.
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insen_13
Platinum Member
Gave you too much but it wasn't enough
Joined: June 2018
Posts: 1,452
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Post by insen_13 on Jan 8, 2019 17:56:54 GMT -5
P.S. Huge thanks to all the predictors, the time and effort you put in is amazing! :) This!
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jan 8, 2019 18:14:38 GMT -5
So y'all, I won't be continuing my predictions since my laptop broke (it isn't salvageable..). Damn, early in the year predictor's bad luck. Thanks for trying to get back at it. I recommend saving worthwhile files in the cloud as a secondary backup in the future.
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Post by feldspar905 on Jan 8, 2019 20:58:41 GMT -5
you say and talk to me becoming sleeper hits just like i predicted a few days ago
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Post by feldspar905 on Jan 8, 2019 21:01:32 GMT -5
Possible future hits: Solo de mi-Its doing surprsingly well on streaming and the music video is doing pretty fucking well Nuketown-Video coming soon and re-entered Faucet failure-returned to BU at #11 this week,also has a video coming soon Talk to me-i will be surprised if this doesnt rise Look back at it-great streaming and sales are alright Roses-doing good on everything except sales
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propanda
New Member
Joined: March 2017
Posts: 64
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Post by propanda on Jan 8, 2019 21:52:45 GMT -5
^ it only debuted that high cuz before it was below 50, and the song was too old to actually hit the chart but it does have some consistent traction so i suppose it could end up as a contender for the YE
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
ahoe s2e11 out now
Joined: December 2018
Posts: 1,116
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Post by spicymapping on Jan 9, 2019 10:58:57 GMT -5
Fixed the size issue on my preds, big thanks to rockgolf!
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rockgolf
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Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
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Posts: 2,050
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Post by rockgolf on Jan 9, 2019 11:02:44 GMT -5
Fixed the size issue on my preds, big thanks to rockgolf! Dah-yum! You grew some!
Can you adjust the column widths?
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
ahoe s2e11 out now
Joined: December 2018
Posts: 1,116
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Post by spicymapping on Jan 9, 2019 11:07:25 GMT -5
Fixed the size issue on my preds, big thanks to rockgolf! Dah-yum! You grew some!
Can you adjust the column widths?I've already fixed it on the sheet, don't really wanna redo screenshots so it'll be updated next week.
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Post by feldspar905 on Jan 9, 2019 18:41:36 GMT -5
When the party´s over is going to pull a "El perdón" on us and make the year end list without cracking the top 50
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Post by feldspar905 on Jan 9, 2019 18:42:48 GMT -5
^ it only debuted that high cuz before it was below 50, and the song was too old to actually hit the chart but it does have some consistent traction so i suppose it could end up as a contender for the YE "Too old", Walking on a dream by empire of the sun only charted in 2016 even tho its a song from 2008
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,759
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Jan 9, 2019 18:57:04 GMT -5
When the party´s over is going to pull a "El perdón" on us and make the year end list without cracking the top 50 It's possible, but I can see that will peak a little higher than El Perdon (#51-#55)
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rockgolf
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Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
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Posts: 2,050
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Post by rockgolf on Jan 9, 2019 19:41:36 GMT -5
Took a while, but I finally got the Jan 12 values into my spreadsheet. I'll update the "complete" 2018 & 2019 charts later.
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Post by feldspar905 on Jan 9, 2019 20:27:42 GMT -5
Took a while, but I finally got the Jan 12 values into my spreadsheet. I'll update the "complete" 2018 & 2019 charts later.
How many points a song needs to "lock" in your list,also the list is good,but choose a better layout cause it gets fucking confusing at points.
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Post by feldspar905 on Jan 9, 2019 20:34:35 GMT -5
Random prediction: When the party´s over at around #99-#93(maybe #92)
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rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,050
Pronouns: he/him/his
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Post by rockgolf on Jan 9, 2019 20:42:52 GMT -5
Took a while, but I finally got the Jan 12 values into my spreadsheet. I'll update the "complete" 2018 & 2019 charts later.
How many points a song needs to "lock" in your list,also the list is good,but choose a better layout cause it gets f**king confusing at points. I'm not sure how many points for a lock. Last year it was about 950, but I adjusted the formula to give an extra 10 points per week, since I undervalued low charting, long running songs. So probably 1050 to 1100.
The format issue is because I'm only showing active songs below 500 points. It will clear up over time.
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Post by reputainbow on Jan 9, 2019 21:00:21 GMT -5
i'm still continuing my (flawed) formula that i used for my official year end prediction in 2018 since it's hard for me to incorporate real data into it but... yeah, this is what i have so far. plus, the more comparisons, the better. {Top 50}Bold: Official locks
1 thank u, next (Ariana Grande) 1610 2 Without Me (Halsey) 1280 3 Sicko Mode (Travis Scott) 1270 4 Happier (Marshmello/Bastille) 1080 5 High Hopes (Panic! at the Disco) 1020 6 Sunflower (Post Malone/Swae Lee) 863 7 Drip Too Hard (Lil Baby/Yung Gunna) 779 8 ZEZE (Kodak Black/Travis Scott/Offset) 776 9 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 729 10 Girls Like You (Maroon 5/Cardi B) 723 11 Mo Bamba (Sheck Wes) 714 12 Lucid Dreams (Juice WRLD) 655 13 Better Now (Post Malone) 605 14 Wake Up In the Sky (Gucci Mane/Bruno Mars/Kodak Black) 604 15 Breathin (Ariana Grande) 598 16 Youngblood (5 Seconds of Summer) 589 17 Eastside (Benny Blanco/Halsey/Khalid) 588 18 MIA (Bad Bunny/Drake) 542 19 Taki Taki (DJ Snake/Selena Gomez/Ozuna/Cardi B) 540 20 Trip (Ella Mai) 540 21 Money (Cardi B) 539 22 Leave Me Alone (Flipp Dinero) 506 23 Love Lies (Khalid/Normani) 499 24 Natural (Imagine Dragons) 470 25 I Like It (Cardi B/Bad Bunny/J Balvin) 467 26 Speechless (Dan + Shay) 461 27 Beautiful (Bazzi/Camila Cabello) 458 28 Shallow (Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper) 454 29 Going Bad (Meek Mill/Drake) 448 30 Better (Khalid) 447 31 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 441 32 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 441 33 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 437 34 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 423 35 She Got the Best of Me (Luke Combs) 399 36 Uproar (Lil Wayne) 396 37 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 385 38 Dangerous (Meek Mill/Jeremih/PnB Rock) 367 39 Best Shot (Jimmie Allen) 347 40 Last Christmas (Wham!) 345 41 Drunk Me (Mitchell Tenpenny) 332 42 BAD! (XXXTentacion) 316 43 You Say (Lauren Daigle) 310 44 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (Gene Autry) 297 45 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 279 46 Arms Around You (XXXTentacion/Lil Pump/Swae Lee/Maluma) 276 47 Armed and Dangerous (Juice Wrld) 264 48 Be Alright (Dean Lewis) 258 49 Taste (Tyga/Offset) 249 50 Broken (lovelytheband) 247 {#51-100}51 God Is a Woman (Ariana Grande) 246 52 When the Party's Over (Billie Eilish) 239 53 Backin' It Up (Pardison Fontaine/Cardi B) 237 54 Talk to Me (Tory Lanez/Rich the Kid) 227 55 Lost in Japan (Shawn Mendes/Zedd) 217 56 Burning Man (Dierks Bentley/Brothers Osborne) 211 57 Calling My Spirit (Kodak Black) 210 58 Close to Me (Ellie Goudling/Diplo/Swae Lee) 207 59 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 203 60 Here Comes Santa Claus (Down Santa Claus Lane) (Gene Autry) 200 61 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 198 62 This Feeling (The Chainsmokers/Kelsea Ballerini) 194 63 Consequences (Camila Cabello) 187 64 KIKA (6ix9ine/Tory Lanez) 182 65 Fefe (6ix9ine/Nicki Minaj/Murda Beatz) 177 66 Nothing Breaks Like a Heart (Mark Ronson/Miley Cyrus) 175 67 Lie (NF) 170 68 Sixteen (Thomas Rhett) 169 69 No Stylist (French Montana/Drake) 165 70 Pure Cocaine (Lil Baby) 161 71 Ring (Cardi B/Kehlani) 157 72 Good Girl (Dustin Lynch) 153 73 Fine China (Future/Juice WRLD) 149 74 Smile (Living My Best Life) (Lil Duval/Snoop Dogg/Ball Greezy) 146 75 Imagine (Ariana Grande) 145 76 Close Friends (Lil Baby) 145 77 Wow. (Post Malone) 142 78 In My Feelings (Drake) 140 79 A Lot (21 Savage) 129 80 (There's No Place Like) Home for the Holidays (Perry Como) 129 81 MAMA (6ix9ine/Nicki Minaj/Kanye West) 128 82 Yes Indeed (Lil Baby/Drake) 127 83 Girl Like You (Jason Aldean) 126 84 It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas (Perry Como and The Fontane Sisters/Mitchell Ayres and His Orchestra) 125 85 Nonstop (Drake) 124 86 What's Free (Meek Mill/Rick Ross/Jay-Z) 121 87 Lose It (Kane Brown) 121 88 Tequila (Dan + Shay) 121 89 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 120 90 Ella Quiere Beber (Anuel AA/Romeo Santos) 118 91 Happy Xmas (War is Over) (John & Yoko/The Plastic Ono Band/The Harlem Community Choir) 115 92 You (Jacquees) 114 93 Last Shot (Kip Moore) 110 94 Boo'd Up (Ella Mai) 110 95 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) (Darlene Love) 109 96 That's On Me (Yella Beezy) 109 97 Swervin (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/6ix9ine) 107 98 WAKA (6ix9ine/A Boogie Wit da Hoodie) 103 99 Beautiful Crazy (Luke Combs) 97 100 TIC TOC (6ix9ine/Lil Baby) 97 {#101-150}101 Look Back At It (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie) 93 102 Sweet But Psycho (Ava Max) 92 103 whoa (mind in awe) (XXXTentacion) 91 104 On Me (Meek Mill/Cardi B) 90 105 Lovely (Billie Eilish/Khalid) 89 106 Uptown Vibes (Meek Mill/Fabolous/Anuel AA) 87 107 Cozy Little Christmas (Katy Perry) 81 108 Can't Leave Without It (21 Savage) 79 109 Startender (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/Offset/Tyga) 76 110 Topanga (Trippie Redd) 75 111 Baby Shark (Pinkfong) 69 112 10 Freaky Girls (Metro Boomin/21 Savage) 69 113 Stoopid (6ix9ine/Bobby Shmurda) 68 114 This Is It (Scotty McCreery) 67 115 Good Form (Nicki Minaj/Lil Wayne) 67 116 Dip (Tyga/Nicki Minaj) 66 117 24/7 (Meek Mill/Ella Mai) 66 118 I'm a Mess (Bebe Rexha) 65 119 1400 / 999 Freestyle (Trippie Redd/Juice Wrld) 62 120 Blue Christmas (Elvis Presley) 61 121 Nuketown (Ski Mask the Slump God/Juice WRLD) 59 122 Blue Tacoma (Russell Dickerson) 58 123 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 57 124 The Christmas Song (Lauren Daigle) 57 125 I Like Me Better (Lauv) 57 126 Run Rudolph Run (Chuck Berry) 56 127 Hangin' On (Chris Young) 56 128 Psycho (Post Malone/Ty Dolla $ign) 56 129 SAD! (XXXTentacion) 55 130 Electricity (Diplo/Mark Ronson/Dua Lipa) 54 131 Wonderful Christmastime (Paul McCartney) 54 132 Guardian Angel (XXXTentacion) 53 133 Rich (Maren Morris) 53 134 Jingle Bells (Frank Sinatra) 52 135 Monster (21 Savage) 51 136 Bohemian Rhapsody (Queen) 51 137 I Don't Let Go (XXXTentacion) 50 138 Envy Me (Calboy) 48 139 Never Recover (Lil Baby/Gunna/Drake) 47 140 Intro (Meek Mill) 46 141 Respect the Game (Meek Mill) 44 142 Millionaire (Chris Stapleton) 43 143 MoshPit (Kodak Black/Juice WRLD) 43 144 Trauma (Meek Mill) 40 145 One Minute (XXXTentacion/Kanye West/Travis Barker) 39 146 Time (Lil Baby/Meek Mill) 39 147 All My Friends (21 Savage) 38 148 Train Food (XXXTentacion) 37 149 Space Cadet (Metro Boomin/Gunna) 37 150 What Are You So Afraid Of (XXXTentacion) 36 {#151-200}151 Ready (Lil Baby/Gunna) 35 152 Yosemite (Travis Scott) 34 153 Staring at the Sky (XXXTentacion) 33 154 Come Out and Play (Billie Eilish) 32 155 Break da Law (21 Savage) 31 156 Championships (Meek Mill) 31 157 I Love It (Kanye West/Lil Pump) 30 158 Tic Tac Toe (Meek Mill/Kodak Black) 29 159 Don't Come Out of the House (Metro Boomin/21 Savage) 29 160 Almost Slipped (Meek Mill) 28 161 Testimony (Kodak Black) 27 162 Take It From Me (Jordan Davis) 26 163 Best Part (Daniel Caesar/H.E.R.) 26 164 What Makes You Country (Luke Bryan) 25 165 Splash Warning (Meek Mill/Future/Roddy Ricch/Young Thug) 24 166 Pay You Back (Meek Mill) 23 167 Down to the Honkytonk (Jake Owen) 21 168 Foot Fungus (Ski Mask the Slump God) 20 169 Falling Down (Lil Peep/XXXTentacion) 20 170 Take One (Kodak Black) 20 171 Love Someone (Lukas Graham) 19 172 Lucky You (Eminem/Joyner Lucas) 19 173 Crush a Lot (Lil Baby) 19 174 Love Wins (Carrie Underwood) 18 175 Demons and Angels (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/Juice WRLD) 18 176 Difference (Interlude) (XXXTentacion) 17 177 Oodles O' Noddles Babies (Meek Mill) 16 178 Ruin My Life (Zara Larsson) 15 179 1.5 (21 Savage) 15 180 Bebe (6ix9ine/Anuel AA) 15 181 W O R K I N M E (Quavo) 15 182 Body (Loud Luxury/Brando) 14 183 Out For the Night (21 Savage) 13 184 Gnarly (Kodak Black/Lil Pump) 13 185 Ocean Eyes (Billie Eilish) 11 186 Here Tonight (Brett Young) 10 187 Global (Lil Baby) 10 188 Noticed (Lil Mosey) 10 189 Mona Lisa (Lil Wayne/Kendrick Lamar) 10 190 Burn Out (Midland) 9 191 Twerk (City Girls/Cardi B) 9 192 Solo de Mi (Bad Bunny) 8 193 Gun Smoke (21 Savage) 8 194 Roses (Benny Blanco/Juice WRLD/Brendon Urie) 6 195 ASMR (21 Savage) 6 196 Desperate Man (Eric Church) 6 197 Make It Sweet (Old Dominion) 3 198 Word on the Street (Lil Baby) 3 199 idontwannabeyouanymore (Billie Eilish) 1 200 Burn the House Down (AJR) 1 sidenote: the least amount of points i've ever had that made the year-end list was "idgaf" with 734. so with aiwfciy having 729, it isn't impossible for it to make the 2019 year-end list. then again, system is also flawed lol.
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Post by feldspar905 on Jan 10, 2019 22:42:29 GMT -5
i'm still continuing my (flawed) formula that i used for my official year end prediction in 2018 since it's hard for me to incorporate real data into it but... yeah, this is what i have so far. plus, the more comparisons, the better. {Top 50}Bold: Official locks
1 thank u, next (Ariana Grande) 1610 2 Without Me (Halsey) 1280 3 Sicko Mode (Travis Scott) 1270 4 Happier (Marshmello/Bastille) 1080 5 High Hopes (Panic! at the Disco) 1020 6 Sunflower (Post Malone/Swae Lee) 863 7 Drip Too Hard (Lil Baby/Yung Gunna) 779 8 ZEZE (Kodak Black/Travis Scott/Offset) 776 9 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 729 10 Girls Like You (Maroon 5/Cardi B) 723 11 Mo Bamba (Sheck Wes) 714 12 Lucid Dreams (Juice WRLD) 655 13 Better Now (Post Malone) 605 14 Wake Up In the Sky (Gucci Mane/Bruno Mars/Kodak Black) 604 15 Breathin (Ariana Grande) 598 16 Youngblood (5 Seconds of Summer) 589 17 Eastside (Benny Blanco/Halsey/Khalid) 588 18 MIA (Bad Bunny/Drake) 542 19 Taki Taki (DJ Snake/Selena Gomez/Ozuna/Cardi B) 540 20 Trip (Ella Mai) 540 21 Money (Cardi B) 539 22 Leave Me Alone (Flipp Dinero) 506 23 Love Lies (Khalid/Normani) 499 24 Natural (Imagine Dragons) 470 25 I Like It (Cardi B/Bad Bunny/J Balvin) 467 26 Speechless (Dan + Shay) 461 27 Beautiful (Bazzi/Camila Cabello) 458 28 Shallow (Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper) 454 29 Going Bad (Meek Mill/Drake) 448 30 Better (Khalid) 447 31 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 441 32 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 441 33 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 437 34 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 423 35 She Got the Best of Me (Luke Combs) 399 36 Uproar (Lil Wayne) 396 37 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 385 38 Dangerous (Meek Mill/Jeremih/PnB Rock) 367 39 Best Shot (Jimmie Allen) 347 40 Last Christmas (Wham!) 345 41 Drunk Me (Mitchell Tenpenny) 332 42 BAD! (XXXTentacion) 316 43 You Say (Lauren Daigle) 310 44 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (Gene Autry) 297 45 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 279 46 Arms Around You (XXXTentacion/Lil Pump/Swae Lee/Maluma) 276 47 Armed and Dangerous (Juice Wrld) 264 48 Be Alright (Dean Lewis) 258 49 Taste (Tyga/Offset) 249 50 Broken (lovelytheband) 247 {#51-100}51 God Is a Woman (Ariana Grande) 246 52 When the Party's Over (Billie Eilish) 239 53 Backin' It Up (Pardison Fontaine/Cardi B) 237 54 Talk to Me (Tory Lanez/Rich the Kid) 227 55 Lost in Japan (Shawn Mendes/Zedd) 217 56 Burning Man (Dierks Bentley/Brothers Osborne) 211 57 Calling My Spirit (Kodak Black) 210 58 Close to Me (Ellie Goudling/Diplo/Swae Lee) 207 59 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 203 60 Here Comes Santa Claus (Down Santa Claus Lane) (Gene Autry) 200 61 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 198 62 This Feeling (The Chainsmokers/Kelsea Ballerini) 194 63 Consequences (Camila Cabello) 187 64 KIKA (6ix9ine/Tory Lanez) 182 65 Fefe (6ix9ine/Nicki Minaj/Murda Beatz) 177 66 Nothing Breaks Like a Heart (Mark Ronson/Miley Cyrus) 175 67 Lie (NF) 170 68 Sixteen (Thomas Rhett) 169 69 No Stylist (French Montana/Drake) 165 70 Pure Cocaine (Lil Baby) 161 71 Ring (Cardi B/Kehlani) 157 72 Good Girl (Dustin Lynch) 153 73 Fine China (Future/Juice WRLD) 149 74 Smile (Living My Best Life) (Lil Duval/Snoop Dogg/Ball Greezy) 146 75 Imagine (Ariana Grande) 145 76 Close Friends (Lil Baby) 145 77 Wow. (Post Malone) 142 78 In My Feelings (Drake) 140 79 A Lot (21 Savage) 129 80 (There's No Place Like) Home for the Holidays (Perry Como) 129 81 MAMA (6ix9ine/Nicki Minaj/Kanye West) 128 82 Yes Indeed (Lil Baby/Drake) 127 83 Girl Like You (Jason Aldean) 126 84 It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas (Perry Como and The Fontane Sisters/Mitchell Ayres and His Orchestra) 125 85 Nonstop (Drake) 124 86 What's Free (Meek Mill/Rick Ross/Jay-Z) 121 87 Lose It (Kane Brown) 121 88 Tequila (Dan + Shay) 121 89 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 120 90 Ella Quiere Beber (Anuel AA/Romeo Santos) 118 91 Happy Xmas (War is Over) (John & Yoko/The Plastic Ono Band/The Harlem Community Choir) 115 92 You (Jacquees) 114 93 Last Shot (Kip Moore) 110 94 Boo'd Up (Ella Mai) 110 95 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) (Darlene Love) 109 96 That's On Me (Yella Beezy) 109 97 Swervin (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/6ix9ine) 107 98 WAKA (6ix9ine/A Boogie Wit da Hoodie) 103 99 Beautiful Crazy (Luke Combs) 97 100 TIC TOC (6ix9ine/Lil Baby) 97 {#101-150}101 Look Back At It (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie) 93 102 Sweet But Psycho (Ava Max) 92 103 whoa (mind in awe) (XXXTentacion) 91 104 On Me (Meek Mill/Cardi B) 90 105 Lovely (Billie Eilish/Khalid) 89 106 Uptown Vibes (Meek Mill/Fabolous/Anuel AA) 87 107 Cozy Little Christmas (Katy Perry) 81 108 Can't Leave Without It (21 Savage) 79 109 Startender (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/Offset/Tyga) 76 110 Topanga (Trippie Redd) 75 111 Baby Shark (Pinkfong) 69 112 10 Freaky Girls (Metro Boomin/21 Savage) 69 113 Stoopid (6ix9ine/Bobby Shmurda) 68 114 This Is It (Scotty McCreery) 67 115 Good Form (Nicki Minaj/Lil Wayne) 67 116 Dip (Tyga/Nicki Minaj) 66 117 24/7 (Meek Mill/Ella Mai) 66 118 I'm a Mess (Bebe Rexha) 65 119 1400 / 999 Freestyle (Trippie Redd/Juice Wrld) 62 120 Blue Christmas (Elvis Presley) 61 121 Nuketown (Ski Mask the Slump God/Juice WRLD) 59 122 Blue Tacoma (Russell Dickerson) 58 123 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 57 124 The Christmas Song (Lauren Daigle) 57 125 I Like Me Better (Lauv) 57 126 Run Rudolph Run (Chuck Berry) 56 127 Hangin' On (Chris Young) 56 128 Psycho (Post Malone/Ty Dolla $ign) 56 129 SAD! (XXXTentacion) 55 130 Electricity (Diplo/Mark Ronson/Dua Lipa) 54 131 Wonderful Christmastime (Paul McCartney) 54 132 Guardian Angel (XXXTentacion) 53 133 Rich (Maren Morris) 53 134 Jingle Bells (Frank Sinatra) 52 135 Monster (21 Savage) 51 136 Bohemian Rhapsody (Queen) 51 137 I Don't Let Go (XXXTentacion) 50 138 Envy Me (Calboy) 48 139 Never Recover (Lil Baby/Gunna/Drake) 47 140 Intro (Meek Mill) 46 141 Respect the Game (Meek Mill) 44 142 Millionaire (Chris Stapleton) 43 143 MoshPit (Kodak Black/Juice WRLD) 43 144 Trauma (Meek Mill) 40 145 One Minute (XXXTentacion/Kanye West/Travis Barker) 39 146 Time (Lil Baby/Meek Mill) 39 147 All My Friends (21 Savage) 38 148 Train Food (XXXTentacion) 37 149 Space Cadet (Metro Boomin/Gunna) 37 150 What Are You So Afraid Of (XXXTentacion) 36 {#151-200}151 Ready (Lil Baby/Gunna) 35 152 Yosemite (Travis Scott) 34 153 Staring at the Sky (XXXTentacion) 33 154 Come Out and Play (Billie Eilish) 32 155 Break da Law (21 Savage) 31 156 Championships (Meek Mill) 31 157 I Love It (Kanye West/Lil Pump) 30 158 Tic Tac Toe (Meek Mill/Kodak Black) 29 159 Don't Come Out of the House (Metro Boomin/21 Savage) 29 160 Almost Slipped (Meek Mill) 28 161 Testimony (Kodak Black) 27 162 Take It From Me (Jordan Davis) 26 163 Best Part (Daniel Caesar/H.E.R.) 26 164 What Makes You Country (Luke Bryan) 25 165 Splash Warning (Meek Mill/Future/Roddy Ricch/Young Thug) 24 166 Pay You Back (Meek Mill) 23 167 Down to the Honkytonk (Jake Owen) 21 168 Foot Fungus (Ski Mask the Slump God) 20 169 Falling Down (Lil Peep/XXXTentacion) 20 170 Take One (Kodak Black) 20 171 Love Someone (Lukas Graham) 19 172 Lucky You (Eminem/Joyner Lucas) 19 173 Crush a Lot (Lil Baby) 19 174 Love Wins (Carrie Underwood) 18 175 Demons and Angels (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/Juice WRLD) 18 176 Difference (Interlude) (XXXTentacion) 17 177 Oodles O' Noddles Babies (Meek Mill) 16 178 Ruin My Life (Zara Larsson) 15 179 1.5 (21 Savage) 15 180 Bebe (6ix9ine/Anuel AA) 15 181 W O R K I N M E (Quavo) 15 182 Body (Loud Luxury/Brando) 14 183 Out For the Night (21 Savage) 13 184 Gnarly (Kodak Black/Lil Pump) 13 185 Ocean Eyes (Billie Eilish) 11 186 Here Tonight (Brett Young) 10 187 Global (Lil Baby) 10 188 Noticed (Lil Mosey) 10 189 Mona Lisa (Lil Wayne/Kendrick Lamar) 10 190 Burn Out (Midland) 9 191 Twerk (City Girls/Cardi B) 9 192 Solo de Mi (Bad Bunny) 8 193 Gun Smoke (21 Savage) 8 194 Roses (Benny Blanco/Juice WRLD/Brendon Urie) 6 195 ASMR (21 Savage) 6 196 Desperate Man (Eric Church) 6 197 Make It Sweet (Old Dominion) 3 198 Word on the Street (Lil Baby) 3 199 idontwannabeyouanymore (Billie Eilish) 1 200 Burn the House Down (AJR) 1 sidenote: the least amount of points i've ever had that made the year-end list was "idgaf" with 734. so with aiwfciy having 729, it isn't impossible for it to make the 2019 year-end list. then again, system is also flawed lol. How many points is your "locked"
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Post by feldspar905 on Jan 10, 2019 22:44:12 GMT -5
Your system is actually not nas,even tho its mostly inverse point
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Post by reputainbow on Jan 10, 2019 22:50:23 GMT -5
i'm still continuing my (flawed) formula that i used for my official year end prediction in 2018 since it's hard for me to incorporate real data into it but... yeah, this is what i have so far. plus, the more comparisons, the better. {Top 50}Bold: Official locks
1 thank u, next (Ariana Grande) 1610 2 Without Me (Halsey) 1280 3 Sicko Mode (Travis Scott) 1270 4 Happier (Marshmello/Bastille) 1080 5 High Hopes (Panic! at the Disco) 1020 6 Sunflower (Post Malone/Swae Lee) 863 7 Drip Too Hard (Lil Baby/Yung Gunna) 779 8 ZEZE (Kodak Black/Travis Scott/Offset) 776 9 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 729 10 Girls Like You (Maroon 5/Cardi B) 723 11 Mo Bamba (Sheck Wes) 714 12 Lucid Dreams (Juice WRLD) 655 13 Better Now (Post Malone) 605 14 Wake Up In the Sky (Gucci Mane/Bruno Mars/Kodak Black) 604 15 Breathin (Ariana Grande) 598 16 Youngblood (5 Seconds of Summer) 589 17 Eastside (Benny Blanco/Halsey/Khalid) 588 18 MIA (Bad Bunny/Drake) 542 19 Taki Taki (DJ Snake/Selena Gomez/Ozuna/Cardi B) 540 20 Trip (Ella Mai) 540 21 Money (Cardi B) 539 22 Leave Me Alone (Flipp Dinero) 506 23 Love Lies (Khalid/Normani) 499 24 Natural (Imagine Dragons) 470 25 I Like It (Cardi B/Bad Bunny/J Balvin) 467 26 Speechless (Dan + Shay) 461 27 Beautiful (Bazzi/Camila Cabello) 458 28 Shallow (Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper) 454 29 Going Bad (Meek Mill/Drake) 448 30 Better (Khalid) 447 31 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 441 32 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 441 33 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 437 34 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 423 35 She Got the Best of Me (Luke Combs) 399 36 Uproar (Lil Wayne) 396 37 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 385 38 Dangerous (Meek Mill/Jeremih/PnB Rock) 367 39 Best Shot (Jimmie Allen) 347 40 Last Christmas (Wham!) 345 41 Drunk Me (Mitchell Tenpenny) 332 42 BAD! (XXXTentacion) 316 43 You Say (Lauren Daigle) 310 44 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (Gene Autry) 297 45 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 279 46 Arms Around You (XXXTentacion/Lil Pump/Swae Lee/Maluma) 276 47 Armed and Dangerous (Juice Wrld) 264 48 Be Alright (Dean Lewis) 258 49 Taste (Tyga/Offset) 249 50 Broken (lovelytheband) 247 {#51-100}51 God Is a Woman (Ariana Grande) 246 52 When the Party's Over (Billie Eilish) 239 53 Backin' It Up (Pardison Fontaine/Cardi B) 237 54 Talk to Me (Tory Lanez/Rich the Kid) 227 55 Lost in Japan (Shawn Mendes/Zedd) 217 56 Burning Man (Dierks Bentley/Brothers Osborne) 211 57 Calling My Spirit (Kodak Black) 210 58 Close to Me (Ellie Goudling/Diplo/Swae Lee) 207 59 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 203 60 Here Comes Santa Claus (Down Santa Claus Lane) (Gene Autry) 200 61 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 198 62 This Feeling (The Chainsmokers/Kelsea Ballerini) 194 63 Consequences (Camila Cabello) 187 64 KIKA (6ix9ine/Tory Lanez) 182 65 Fefe (6ix9ine/Nicki Minaj/Murda Beatz) 177 66 Nothing Breaks Like a Heart (Mark Ronson/Miley Cyrus) 175 67 Lie (NF) 170 68 Sixteen (Thomas Rhett) 169 69 No Stylist (French Montana/Drake) 165 70 Pure Cocaine (Lil Baby) 161 71 Ring (Cardi B/Kehlani) 157 72 Good Girl (Dustin Lynch) 153 73 Fine China (Future/Juice WRLD) 149 74 Smile (Living My Best Life) (Lil Duval/Snoop Dogg/Ball Greezy) 146 75 Imagine (Ariana Grande) 145 76 Close Friends (Lil Baby) 145 77 Wow. (Post Malone) 142 78 In My Feelings (Drake) 140 79 A Lot (21 Savage) 129 80 (There's No Place Like) Home for the Holidays (Perry Como) 129 81 MAMA (6ix9ine/Nicki Minaj/Kanye West) 128 82 Yes Indeed (Lil Baby/Drake) 127 83 Girl Like You (Jason Aldean) 126 84 It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas (Perry Como and The Fontane Sisters/Mitchell Ayres and His Orchestra) 125 85 Nonstop (Drake) 124 86 What's Free (Meek Mill/Rick Ross/Jay-Z) 121 87 Lose It (Kane Brown) 121 88 Tequila (Dan + Shay) 121 89 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 120 90 Ella Quiere Beber (Anuel AA/Romeo Santos) 118 91 Happy Xmas (War is Over) (John & Yoko/The Plastic Ono Band/The Harlem Community Choir) 115 92 You (Jacquees) 114 93 Last Shot (Kip Moore) 110 94 Boo'd Up (Ella Mai) 110 95 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) (Darlene Love) 109 96 That's On Me (Yella Beezy) 109 97 Swervin (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/6ix9ine) 107 98 WAKA (6ix9ine/A Boogie Wit da Hoodie) 103 99 Beautiful Crazy (Luke Combs) 97 100 TIC TOC (6ix9ine/Lil Baby) 97 {#101-150}101 Look Back At It (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie) 93 102 Sweet But Psycho (Ava Max) 92 103 whoa (mind in awe) (XXXTentacion) 91 104 On Me (Meek Mill/Cardi B) 90 105 Lovely (Billie Eilish/Khalid) 89 106 Uptown Vibes (Meek Mill/Fabolous/Anuel AA) 87 107 Cozy Little Christmas (Katy Perry) 81 108 Can't Leave Without It (21 Savage) 79 109 Startender (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/Offset/Tyga) 76 110 Topanga (Trippie Redd) 75 111 Baby Shark (Pinkfong) 69 112 10 Freaky Girls (Metro Boomin/21 Savage) 69 113 Stoopid (6ix9ine/Bobby Shmurda) 68 114 This Is It (Scotty McCreery) 67 115 Good Form (Nicki Minaj/Lil Wayne) 67 116 Dip (Tyga/Nicki Minaj) 66 117 24/7 (Meek Mill/Ella Mai) 66 118 I'm a Mess (Bebe Rexha) 65 119 1400 / 999 Freestyle (Trippie Redd/Juice Wrld) 62 120 Blue Christmas (Elvis Presley) 61 121 Nuketown (Ski Mask the Slump God/Juice WRLD) 59 122 Blue Tacoma (Russell Dickerson) 58 123 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 57 124 The Christmas Song (Lauren Daigle) 57 125 I Like Me Better (Lauv) 57 126 Run Rudolph Run (Chuck Berry) 56 127 Hangin' On (Chris Young) 56 128 Psycho (Post Malone/Ty Dolla $ign) 56 129 SAD! (XXXTentacion) 55 130 Electricity (Diplo/Mark Ronson/Dua Lipa) 54 131 Wonderful Christmastime (Paul McCartney) 54 132 Guardian Angel (XXXTentacion) 53 133 Rich (Maren Morris) 53 134 Jingle Bells (Frank Sinatra) 52 135 Monster (21 Savage) 51 136 Bohemian Rhapsody (Queen) 51 137 I Don't Let Go (XXXTentacion) 50 138 Envy Me (Calboy) 48 139 Never Recover (Lil Baby/Gunna/Drake) 47 140 Intro (Meek Mill) 46 141 Respect the Game (Meek Mill) 44 142 Millionaire (Chris Stapleton) 43 143 MoshPit (Kodak Black/Juice WRLD) 43 144 Trauma (Meek Mill) 40 145 One Minute (XXXTentacion/Kanye West/Travis Barker) 39 146 Time (Lil Baby/Meek Mill) 39 147 All My Friends (21 Savage) 38 148 Train Food (XXXTentacion) 37 149 Space Cadet (Metro Boomin/Gunna) 37 150 What Are You So Afraid Of (XXXTentacion) 36 {#151-200}151 Ready (Lil Baby/Gunna) 35 152 Yosemite (Travis Scott) 34 153 Staring at the Sky (XXXTentacion) 33 154 Come Out and Play (Billie Eilish) 32 155 Break da Law (21 Savage) 31 156 Championships (Meek Mill) 31 157 I Love It (Kanye West/Lil Pump) 30 158 Tic Tac Toe (Meek Mill/Kodak Black) 29 159 Don't Come Out of the House (Metro Boomin/21 Savage) 29 160 Almost Slipped (Meek Mill) 28 161 Testimony (Kodak Black) 27 162 Take It From Me (Jordan Davis) 26 163 Best Part (Daniel Caesar/H.E.R.) 26 164 What Makes You Country (Luke Bryan) 25 165 Splash Warning (Meek Mill/Future/Roddy Ricch/Young Thug) 24 166 Pay You Back (Meek Mill) 23 167 Down to the Honkytonk (Jake Owen) 21 168 Foot Fungus (Ski Mask the Slump God) 20 169 Falling Down (Lil Peep/XXXTentacion) 20 170 Take One (Kodak Black) 20 171 Love Someone (Lukas Graham) 19 172 Lucky You (Eminem/Joyner Lucas) 19 173 Crush a Lot (Lil Baby) 19 174 Love Wins (Carrie Underwood) 18 175 Demons and Angels (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/Juice WRLD) 18 176 Difference (Interlude) (XXXTentacion) 17 177 Oodles O' Noddles Babies (Meek Mill) 16 178 Ruin My Life (Zara Larsson) 15 179 1.5 (21 Savage) 15 180 Bebe (6ix9ine/Anuel AA) 15 181 W O R K I N M E (Quavo) 15 182 Body (Loud Luxury/Brando) 14 183 Out For the Night (21 Savage) 13 184 Gnarly (Kodak Black/Lil Pump) 13 185 Ocean Eyes (Billie Eilish) 11 186 Here Tonight (Brett Young) 10 187 Global (Lil Baby) 10 188 Noticed (Lil Mosey) 10 189 Mona Lisa (Lil Wayne/Kendrick Lamar) 10 190 Burn Out (Midland) 9 191 Twerk (City Girls/Cardi B) 9 192 Solo de Mi (Bad Bunny) 8 193 Gun Smoke (21 Savage) 8 194 Roses (Benny Blanco/Juice WRLD/Brendon Urie) 6 195 ASMR (21 Savage) 6 196 Desperate Man (Eric Church) 6 197 Make It Sweet (Old Dominion) 3 198 Word on the Street (Lil Baby) 3 199 idontwannabeyouanymore (Billie Eilish) 1 200 Burn the House Down (AJR) 1 sidenote: the least amount of points i've ever had that made the year-end list was "idgaf" with 734. so with aiwfciy having 729, it isn't impossible for it to make the 2019 year-end list. then again, system is also flawed lol. How many points is your "locked" 1103, technically. i’ve tracked every other year this decade using this same format to compare to the decade-end chart coming up, and “crooked smile” (which didn't make the year-end list) from 2013 received 1102 points, so i’m marking that as my cut off. but every other 1100+ point song has made the year end list so it was probably just a fluke.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2019 0:46:57 GMT -5
Who thinks Beautiful gonna make it?
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,759
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Jan 13, 2019 5:21:58 GMT -5
Who thinks Beautiful gonna make it? Me! It's possible it can enter the 2019 YE, even if it means it will end up at the Bottom 10.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 13, 2019 14:32:15 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - January 12th 2019Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000 # | +/- | Song | Points | Sales | Airplay | On-Demand | YouTube | Programmed | Total Streams | +/- (%) | 1 | +1 | Without Me | 37,000 | 39.0k | 95.5m | 17.3m | 8.1m | 6.8m | 32.4m | -1.3 | 2 | -1 | thank u, next | 36,700 | 29.1k | 93.1m | 18.3m | 12.5m | 4.4m | 35.5m | -7.8 | 3 | +2 | Sunflower | 35,700 | 40.0k | 51.5m | 23.1m | 13.3m | 4.2m | 40.7m | +8.7 | 4 | = | SICKO MODE | 34,800 | 18.4k | 68.9m | 20.7m | 13.4m | 8.8m | 43.1m | +0.4 | 5 | +1 | High Hopes | 32,500 | 31.0k | 129.8m | 9.7m | 4.2m | 2.3m | 16.3m | +1.1 | 6 | +1 | Happier | 31,400 | 26.7k | 109.9m | 11.9m | 5.5m | 3.6m | 21.1m | +1.5 | 7 | +7 | Girls Like You | 24,900 | 13.1k | 88.3m | 6.6m | 9.6m | 4.8m | 21.1m | +6.6 | 8 | +4 | Drip Too Hard | 21,900 | 8.7k | 33.8m | 18.1m | 7.9m | 2.1m | 28.2m | -8.3 | 9 | +6 | ZEZE | 21,600 | 8.4k | 42.4m | 15.8m | 7.0m | 3.5m | 26.3m | -7.2 | 10 | +13 | Better Now | 21,400 | 16.3k | 60.6m | 10.7m
| 2.4m | 6.2m | 19.3m | +12.1 |
Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 13, 2019 14:32:25 GMT -5
Highlights of the week:
- High Hopes: strongest radio #1 since Meant To Be (130.0M audience impressions - May 12); - New peak in points: Sunflower, High Hopes, Happier;
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 13, 2019 14:34:01 GMT -5
Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - January 12, 2019
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jan 13, 2019 18:37:59 GMT -5
January 12, 2019 - 8/52 weeks (15.38%) Based on chart performance on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart dated Nov. 24, 2018, to Nov. 16, 2019.Locked last week: ---> Happier (Marshmello & Bastille --- #80 in 2018) ---> High Hopes (Panic! At The Disco) Locked this week: ---> Sunflower (Post Malone & Swae Lee) ---> Girls Like You (Maroon 5 feat. Cardi B --- #10 in 2018) ---> ZEZE (Kodak Black feat. Travis Scott & Offset) Added this week: ---> Taki Taki (DJ Snake feat. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B --- #19 this week) ---> Natural (Imagine Dragons --- #23 this week) ---> Leave Me Alone (Flipp Dinero --- #24 this week) Estimated Cutoff ---> 180,000 points (margin of error: 7% --- 167,400-192,600) *I think the song at #100 will be around 180k points, but it's possible that it ends up with 167.4k-192.6k
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,088
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Post by inverse on Jan 14, 2019 1:26:17 GMT -5
Other songs I think it'd be good to track are I Like It (the only surviving 2018 song that isn't here already) and Going Bad because it's gonna be a lock for the year end list at some point
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mikerivera
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2018
Posts: 1,665
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Post by mikerivera on Jan 14, 2019 3:16:25 GMT -5
YE Projection 2019 (7/52)Happier and High Hopes are locked. Sunflower is now in striking distance. Songs that are locked are bolded, songs in striking distance are italicizedRank | Song | Artist | Points | 1 | Thank U, Next | Ariana Grande | 1,429 | 2 | Without Me | Halsey | 1,189 | 3 | Sicko Mode* | Travis Scott | 1,178 | 4 | Happier* | Marshmello & Bastille | 1,045 | 5 | High Hopes | Panic! At the Disco | 1,004 | 6 | Sunflower | Post Malone & Swae Lee | 899 | 7 | Drip Too Hard | Lil Baby & Gunna | 795 | 8 | Zeze | Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset
| 794 | 9 | Girls Like You* | Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B | 783 | 10 | Mo Bamba | Sheck Wes | 771 | 11 | Wake Up in the Sky | Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black | 720 | 12 | Lucid Dreams* | Juice WRLD | 715 | 13 | Better Now* | Post Malone | 712 | 14 | Breathin | Ariana Grande | 704 | 15 | YoungBlood* | 5 Seconds of Summer | 699 | 16 | Eastside* | Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid | 689 | 17 | Trip* | Ella Mai | 630 | 18 | Money | Cardi B | 629 | 19 | Mía | Bad Bunny ft. Drake | 623 | 20 | Taki Taki | DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna, & Cardi B
| 621 | 21 | Leave Me Alone | Flipp Dinero | 576 | 22 | Love Lies* | Khalid & Normani | 575 | 23 | Natural* | Imagine Dragons | 538 | 24 | I Like It* | Cardi B ft. Bad Bunny & J Balvin | 529 | 25 | Speechless | Dan+Shay | 525 | 26 | Beautiful | Bazzi ft. Camila Cabello | 510 | 27 | Shallow | Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper | 504 | 28 | Better | Khalid | 502 | 29 | Going Bad | Meek Mill ft. Drake | 491 | 30 | She Got the Best of Me | Luke Combs | 432 |
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