A female resurgence?

[mbgriffith1]

How long has it been since we've had this?

5 females/female lead singers in the top 10
-Sugarland: extremely fresh and talented group with great summer music and actual talent- songwriting/vocal/instrumental
-Faith Hill: great comeback song
-SheDaisy: finally in the top 10 again with a fun song from three very talented ladies
-Sara Evans: amazing song that I doubt is even in the top half quality wise of her new CD
-Jamie O'Neal: congrats Jamie to a well deserved return to the top 10 and a wonderfully catchy and interesting song

9 in top 20
-Reba McEntire: quit with all the payola crap people because this a great CD and its not like she paid the radio people herself
-Trisha Yearwood: beautiful song from arguably the most talented voice in country music
-Trick Pony: interesting take on a classic song from a really fun group
-LeAnn Rimes: a second hit for this extremely talented singer

13 in top 30
-Lee Ann Womack: FINALLY making some headway with this gem, talk about an amazing CD, should walk away with best CD honors at both awards shows this year
-Gretchen Wilson: I'm not much of a fan of her music but she does have talent as show in When I Thing About Cheatin' which is a great classic country song though I'm not too fond of All Jacked Up
-Jo Dee Messina: country music's queen of upbeat fun songs, this one's really different and it should do very well for her
-Miranda Lambert: another promising newcomer with what I consider to be one of the top 10 CD's of the year (with Bring Me Down as a great standout track)

Things to notice:
-A wider variety of songs and talents
-Some great old-timers mixed with some very talented newcomers

Things sure are looking good for the ladies of country music.

[drock89]

And check the Top 75 albums:

#5 Twice the Speed of Life
#7 Here for The Party
#14 Shania's Greatest Hits
#23 The Very Best of Emmylou
#24 Room To Breathe
#28 This Woman
#29 Delicious Suprise
#30 Kerosene
#32 Erika Jo
#35 Sweet Right Here
#39 Martina
#40 Brave
#41 Lonely Runs Both Ways
#42 Restless
#47 There's More Where That Came From
#51 Terri's Greatest Hits
#52 LeAnn's Greatest Hits
#53 Lee Ann's Greatest Hits
#57 Top of the World Live
#67 Patsy Cline: Gold
#71 Julie Roberts

Not a bad showing. I think that radio is turning back to the pre 2003 days, and finally realizing that women really do connect just as well as men, and sell better. Shania, Faith, The Chicks, can all debut bigger than Toby, Kenny, and sometimes Tim. Women really have rejuvinated country as an industry.

[Jonsolo]

What a difference a year makes (well, 15 months, anyway).

In May 2004, the ladies were mired in a #1 drought of 61-weeks (Travelin' Soldier the last one in March '03), the longest such drought in 37 years on Billboard (the #1 duet Yes, Mr. Peters with Priscilla Mitchell on 8/28/64, 75 weeks until Loretta Lynn hit #1 with Don't Come Home A' Drinkin' on 2/11/67).

Then, Gretchen has her breakthrough hit, and four more females claim a #1 over the next year. Today, the ladies have many plausible #1 contenders, and make the scenario of five consecutive female #1's possible: Sugarland, Faith, Sara, Gretchen, and maybe Jamie.

[drock89]

But it still isn't even close to where it was back in 1999. Back then, the ratio was what? 50% to 50%? I think one day once all this payola passes and radio gets back to listening to the listeners, the real stars will emerge, the new acts will break, and good music will return to the airways!

[Perp]

Excellent posts, thanks!

[Dustin J.]

Agreed!  Excellent post!! 

Now I wonder if we will ever see a resurgance of groups/bands?  I often go back to the mid-late 90's when groups were so popular.  Until recently Rascal Flatts and Lonestar had been the only ones with much success.  Now, Sugarland has taken the country by storm, SheDaisy is back in the top 10, and Hot Apple Pie & Trick Pony are looking to break the top 20.  Even so, it's no where near where it was about 5 or 6 years ago.

[J.T.]

I think it will be very interesting to see who ends up with a Best Female nomination at the CMA's. With Gretchen's win at the ACM's I think it has really opened everything up and there might actually be a race this year.

[Marv]

I'm delighted that the resurgence of females has taken place, and especially Lee Ann Womack, who's current CD is neck-and-neck with Trace Adkins's equally stupendous CD as my choice for the best CD of the year.

However, it is still VERY disgusting that in spite of securing nominations for song of the year and best female vocal performance of the year at last year's CMA awards, 'I May Hate Myself In The Morning' never cracked the top five, which was an outrage.

It was five years ago that 'I Hope You Dance' was in it's fourth of five (or six) weeks @ #! @ R&R, and there's no reason why 'IMHMITM' didn't go to #1 as well.

Over the past decade, VERY few females have amassed a body of work as exceptional as Ms. Womack; that list would include Patty Loveless, Trish Yearwood and Martina McBride, in my opinion.

I hope that 'He Ought To Know That By Now' goes MUCH farther than 'IMHMITM', but I'm not holding my breath!!!!!

[firedancer]

What are the demos these days in who buys the most albums? Is it still the "soccer mom" and slighty older demo? Or are more men and youngsters buying country records these days?

[musicbuff78]

That's a very good question. I would say with the country market though (and I'm just guessing) that most of the sales in country would come from the 18-49 demo. with women being the ones that buy the most. Just a guess though.

[Marv]

I don't know either, but given that country music's target audience (25-54 women) has TONS of disposable income, it's no wonder that country music sales have essentially kept the entire retail biz afloat the past few years.

You can't turn around without another country superstar releasing a new CD, and with Tim, Faith, Brad and several other format staples releasing new music before the year ends, there's no reason to think that the format won't continue to do very well, at both radio and retail.

[someguy]

mizzouhillbilly said:

I think it will be very interesting to see who ends up with a Best Female nomination at the CMA's. With Gretchen's win at the ACM's I think it has really opened everything up and there might actually be a race this year.

Female Vocalist will be interesting this year. I think that the only two complete locks are Sara Evans and Gretchen Wilson. Faith Hill is pretty safe, which leaves two spots. If the CMA is being safe, then Terri Clark and Martina McBride will take those spots. Lee Ann Womack, LeAnn Rimes, Jo Dee Messina and Reba McEntire are also in contention, with Trisha Yearwood as a potential dark horse. My prediction is:

Sara Evans
Faith Hill
Reba McEntire
Jo Dee Messina
Gretchen Wilson

but, it wouldn't shock me at all to see Reba replaced with Lee Ann.

[J.T.]

Just my guesses--

Gretchen Wilson
Sara Evans
Lee Ann Womack
Faith Hill
Trisha Yearwood

I think it will come down to Womack and Wilson. Womack has had one, if not the best, reviewed CD this year so far. Gretchen is on fire right now and pretty hard to ignore. I think it will come down to those two.

[WakeUpOlder]

My prediction for the Female Vocalist race is...

- Faith Hill
- Gretchen Wilson
- Sara Evans
- Lee Ann Womack
- Jo Dee Messina

I think the first four are pretty much sure bets for nomination.....the only one i'm not completely sure of is Jo Dee. I think she definetly earned a nomination over the past year (#1 single/album), but she's not a CMA favorite. I could really see CMA nominating Reba instead.

[mbgriffith1]

I have to say I am very surprised that you all think Faith will be included. Personally, I think her new CD is very dull (and I have liked every other one until now... they're not all favorites of mine (except IMTM), but I have liked them all) and I see her being treated like a Shania at the CMA's this time around. The sure bets for a nod are Sara Evans and Lee Ann Womack imo. Also, I see Gretchen and JoDee as very very very strong contenders for nods (practically a sure bet for Gretchen) leaving only one spot open. This spot will be fought over by Terri (who's had an off year), Martina (off year), Reba (nothing really powerful), LeAnn (who has a good shot), Trisha (used to be a favorite and has a moderately performing powerhouse song imo), and Faith (decent song doing very well, weak CD though- I think the weak CD point is pretty much universally agreed upon by the critics). I say the 5th slot goes to Trisha or LeAnn. I also wish Jamie O'Neal's songs would have done better to warrant a nom. The same can be said for Miranda Lambert (whose CD I can't stop listening to) and Shelly Fairchild (another great CD).

Personally, I would LOVE LOVE LOVE LOVE for Sara to win finally (and I can't wait for her new CD to come out based on the songs I've heard), but I would also love Lee Ann to win because her CD is simply stunning. I also have really enjoyed JoDee's CD though I consider it less country and not quite as good as Sara's and Lee Ann's latest. I really hope Gretchen doesn't win because even though I agree she has a good voice, I think her stupid songs about being a rowdy redneck are overly simplistic, formulaic, and just trying to milk her image. I wish she would do more classic country songs like WITAC, which was amazingly well done.

[kyhomeg]

I think Faith has a very good chance in getting a nod, her comeback is going great, a top 5 song that may or may not hit #1. A album that is going to debut #1 on the Country charts and Billboard Top 200. With a total OVER 300,000 a number HIGHER than some of MALE superstars did with their last albums like Alan, Toby, Keith and George.

As for her album universally bad as you say, that is stretching it don't you think, for every negative review, I can post a postive. Also her fans are happy with it and I know for a fact I love it. So that sweeping statement you made is just your opinion not fact, unless you have polled everyone.

As for the other females I would love to see JoDee and Sara nominated. I don't think Martina should be nominated this time, her last album came out almost two years ago, her success at radio was off this year, so I don't think deserves one of the nods. Gretchen will get a nod and I have no doubt she will win and IMO She deserves it, no female was more successful. Sara's album came out amost 2 years ago so IMO she does not deserve it in between her albums, she is right there with Martina with a two years since her last album.

Lee Ann put out a great album that is for sure, the problem I have with it, there is not much variety at all. With all of its critical prasie where is the sales. All the praise doesn't mean anything if the fans DON'T buy it. Before you say anything I own the album bought it the first week. The album though is in the 40's on the country charts and Faith is going to sell more in her first week than Lee Ann Womack has sold of her album in the 23 weeks it has been on the chart. SO WHY AREN'T PEOPLE BUYING IT?

Alan will sure get a nod but this last year has been one of the most weakest of his career. His album hasn't even sold a million and has been in 40's and 50's on the  country charts for months, so far he has not had a #1 song from this album.

So you say Faith don't deserve a nod, but these others do.

[mbgriffith1]

I agree that Faith's CD will open big. Even so, it will be 100k short of Cry's first week at least... and we saw how well the CMA's rewarded her for that effort. Also, I did not say that all of the reviews were negative, but I would say the overwhelming majority use words like 'underwhelming', 'spotty', 'weak', and some just call it downright awful (which I would disagree with). In regard to Lee Ann, the CD is selling well. Its not a pop crossover so all of the sales are going to come from hardcore country fans and it had a very big opening week for a female artist (with over 100k sold). This CD will definitely go gold and if she has any more big singles from it, it might be able to reach platinum status.

[drock89]

Albums mean nothing. Look at Shania and UP. The biggest selling cd of 2003, did she get a CMA nomination for that year? Also a year when she had a Top 5, 3 Top 10s, 4 Top 20s.. and the cd was reviewed well and widely accepted throughout the industry.

Faith's cd is very good. And I am sure she will get some nods. However, this year will be all about Gretchen Wilson. The CMA hasn't had its chance to shower her with awards.

Lee Ann put out a stellar album, one of the best of this decade, and I'm sure an Album of the Year is all she gets. "I May Hate Myself" deserves Song and Single of the Year, but those awards will either go to Gretchen or a male.

Sara Evans is on a roll, but if they won't recognize "Suds" they aren't going to go anywhere. Her new album won't open anything to Faith's, Martina's, or Gretchen's, so she will continue to be overshadowed there. However, a female of the year nod wouldn't shock me.

Shania is out for female, I don't think Allison will squeeze in, and Reba is Reba. She has hits, but because of her out-of-country works, I don't think the CMA will jump to give her credit. I would say the 5 FOTY will be Gretchen, Martina, Faith, Sara/Jo Dee, Lee Ann/Reba.

And right now, I would give Gretchen the definite. She still has another album coming, "All Jacked Up" will go #1 no doubt, and Sony will stuff the vote. Face it, she's hot. She's hotter than Faith, Martina, Shania, anyone. She is 'IT'. But she isn't above those lovely ladies on the status chart, although Nashville wants to replace a few Queens.

[austin]

I'd say it'll probably go

Martina
Gretchen
Sara
Lee Ann
Trisha

Just because the industry loves Lee Ann and Trisha. Both of them could be nominated, but Jo Dee has had a good year and I'd hate to see her miss out.

I just hope SHeDAISY is NOMINATED for GROUP OF THE YEAR. They had a Top 10 hit this year and have had 3 Top 15s the past 2 years. Their album is almost Gold now, their video is all over CMT and GAC and although they are NOT deserving of winning (although I'd love it), they better be nominated alongside Rascal Flatts, Sugarland, and Lonestar. If I see another nomination for Alabama, Trick Pony or Diamond Rio and not SHeDAISY...I'll go crazy.

I'd make Trick Pony nominee #5.

[kyhomeg]

I highly doubt Trisha will get a nod and sorry she doesn't deserve it this year. The time frame is from July to June of this year. Her album doesn't come out to September, her song is not even in the Top 15. She does not deserve a nod for the time frame of this years CMA's at all and I would bet she will not get one.

As for Lee Ann's album selling well, it had good first week numbers, but since then in 23 weeks hasn't sold more than 300,000. It is in the 40's on the country charts which it means it is selling probadly 4000 or less a week.

Like I said all the praise in the world means nothing if the fans don't buy it.

My picks:
Faith
Gretchen(winner)
Sara
JoDee/Reba/Martina(hopefully it will be JoDee, don't think Martina deserves it)
Lee Ann Womack

[headstronglock]

My picks are:
Reba
Gretchen Wilson
Jo Dee Messina
Faith Hill
Lee Ann Womack

[KMCB]

My picks as to who will be nominated are:
Gretchen Wilson
Sara Evans (the real race is between GW and SE)
Faith Hill
Lee Ann Womack
Martina McBride

Martina does not belong in the line-up, but I doubt the CMA will nominate anyone else above her. That spot should go to Terri Clark or Jo Dee, whom the CMA always ignores, or even Leanne Rimes.

It's true that Trisha's latest does not fit into the eligibility period, but little attention is paid to such things when it comes to nominations. Reba and Trisha both are being quietly transitioned  to the 'classic artist' category... appreciated, even loved, but not awarded.

In the group category, I'm excited to see a true race this year: Rascal Flatts vs. Sugarland. I hope to see Trick Pony there as well, and if SheDaisy is not, then, crap... it's obvious the 'industry' just has it in for them.

I'm glad we've had a year in which female nominations are actually worth discussing! Perhaps they will be mentioned in more than a token one or two times in other categories as well...

PS: As for the Horizon award, my vote goes completely to Miranda Lambert... would also love to see Shelly Fairchild or Mindy Smith there, but I know I'm just dreaming with those.

[musicbuff78]

Horizon will no doubt go to Sugarland.

[Marv]

I think the CMA folks have already showered Ms. Wilson with awards; winning Best Female Vocalist & Best New Artist was plenty.

I'm pulling for Ms. Womack; her CD is exceptional, and 'IMHMITM' will undoubtedly help her score nominations for record, song, album, female artist, and top female vocalist at the ACM awards.

Jo Dee Messina and Ms. Wilson will also be nominated; the other two spots are up for grabs.

[firedancer]

tough call on horizon award. I agree with both KMCB and Steelo-- the real race for this nomination will be between Miranda and Sugarland.

[WakeUpOlder]

there's no race....sugarland will win it hands down (and for good reason) as much as i love miranda's album, sugarland has recieved the airplay and the sales to be a shoe-in for the horizon award. i mean...

miranda - two top 30 singles/probably 200,000 in sales
sugarland - so far two #2 singles (possibly a #1) and close to 600,000 in sales.

there really is no comparion. miranda will get nominated....sugarland WILL win.

[kyhomeg]

Sorry you are wrong about the CMA's showering Gretchen with the female and all these awards. The only CMA she has won is Horizon. You are thinking about the ACM's. Gretchen has ONE CMA. She lost out female to Martina last year, she lost out album to Kenny and Song/Single to Tim's song.

She will win Female Vocalist I'm 100% sure and deserves it. Lee Ann Womack does not deserve it she hasn't had the sales, success or even readio success and will not win IMO. Her album is good but not great cause there was no variety, that is why it is not selling.

[drock89]

kyhomeg said:

Her album is good but not great cause there was no variety, that is why it is not selling.

Whatever!! You have no idea. It isn't selling like Gretchen because its a traditional country album, that radio won't play and that people won't buy because they don't want a traditional country album!!

[KMCB]

wakeupolder said:

there's no race....sugarland will win it hands down (and for good reason) as much as i love miranda's album, sugarland has recieved the airplay and the sales to be a shoe-in for the horizon award. i mean...

miranda - two top 30 singles/probably 200,000 in sales
sugarland - so far two #2 singles (possibly a #1) and close to 600,000 in sales.

there really is no comparion. miranda will get nominated....sugarland WILL win.

Ooops. Yeah. I forgot about Horizon including groups... it hasn't happened in a few years. Sugarland will win. Miranda is definitely the standout, IMO, of the new solo artists.

[Marv]

Ms. Womack's CD is the best one by a female I''ve heard this year; the buzz on Nashville's music row was that she'd deliver a true traditon-laced country CD, and she certainly did.

Her body of work over the past decade can certainly stand up to anybody's, and especially alongside the female stars such as Trisha, Patty Loveless & Martina McBride.

The fact that it's not selling as much as SOME other CDs out there is, as Perry Mason used to say, 'incompetent, irrelevant, and immaterial'!!!

There has NEVER been a correlation between retail sales and music excellence, regardless of which musical genre is being discussed, and country music is no different!!!!!!!