dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Nov 12, 2014 9:45:12 GMT -5
Keith passed Little Big Town today on MB, has a lead on them by 21 spins and about 500k in audience. Seeing how the updates have been for him lately, I don't expect him to fall back behind LBT. It seems pretty clear Frankie is going to be the next #1 next week as Neon Light is starting to drop/lose spins, but Keith will be next in line after him. The interesting part will be whether LBT can wait two more weeks for #1, or if they'll just be happy with a #3 peak. "Day Drinking" is really racking up the weeks now.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Nov 12, 2014 13:25:38 GMT -5
Keith passed Little Big Town today on MB, has a lead on them by 21 spins and about 500k in audience. Seeing how the updates have been for him lately, I don't expect him to fall back behind LBT. It seems pretty clear Frankie is going to be the next #1 next week as Neon Light is starting to drop/lose spins, but Keith will be next in line after him. The interesting part will be whether LBT can wait two more weeks for #1, or if they'll just be happy with a #3 peak. "Day Drinking" is really racking up the weeks now. It's worth noting that both Keith and Little Big Town are Capitol Nashville artists. That being said, LBT has not had a good week. Their only up 25 spins and 400k in audience since Sunday. Keith's song is up 131 spins and nearly 1.1 million in audience. I do agree that Frankie will hold on one more week to land at #1. After that, I'll be interested to see if Capitol does in fact let Keith get to #1 before LBT, since "Day Drinking" has racked up a few more weeks inside the top 5. I would think that they would still try and get both to #1 or at least make "Day Drinking" a MB only #1. Maddie & Tae are the only competition behind them, but their at roughly 700 spins and 5 million in audience behind both songs - then there's a huge gap to the next batch of songs.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Nov 12, 2014 13:34:02 GMT -5
That could be what they do, Keith gets two weeks at #1 on Billboard, and LBT and Keith will split on MB, like you said because Maddie & Tae are too far behind.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2014 15:38:11 GMT -5
I hope y'all are right, that Keith has the easiest trek to #1 here, but for once I'm not quite as confident. I've seen it too many times in the past where a KU single has been high and flying only to suddenly and inexplicably stall out at #2 or #3. I'm not saying it's the label's fault or that they would deliberately sabotage any Keith single--I'm just saying that, if it comes down to one or the other, I figure they'll put all their effort into a final push for "Day Drinking" since that's a lead single for LBT, whereas SIMC is the 4th single from Keith's Fuse.
So even though Keith has passed them now, I don't think we can rule out the possibility of LBT slingshot-ing (not a word, lol) right back ahead of him around this time next week. That would likely be bad news for Keith, and could result in a #2 peak for SIMC.
I'm still about 75% sure (or higher) that Keith will get to #1 here--I'm just saying that I see a possible scenario where he could miss out, or perhaps get held to a Mediabase-only #1 (which I don't want to see, at all).
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Nov 12, 2014 15:45:23 GMT -5
^ I think the fact that "Cop Car" had a slight disappointment with its chart run (trying to get Keith back on track with another string #1 single) along with the fact that LBT is on the same label that Capitol knows what they are doing here. You bring up a good point about the fact that we still have 11 MB days and 12 Billboard days before the next chart week comes out after Frankie in all likely hood hangs on for #1 this week.
"Day Drinking" has been a hard song to pin down in terms of activity but I do think Keith will get to #1 on both charts here (I still count it if its the MB only variety, but you know me, lol). I do remember the haunts of "I'm In" in 2010 and "Put You In A Song" in 2011 getting shut out with a similar scenario, but we still have some days to go here and I'm staying fairly confident about "Somewhere In My Car" landing at #1 on both charts.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2014 18:44:18 GMT -5
Kind of annoyed that the #1s keep rotating lately, with the radios just throwing their hands up in surrender once the song hits number 1, allowing it to fall rapidly off the face of the Earth.
That being said, I *think* Keith is far enough ahead that he should secure 2 weeks at #1. But knowing how one week an artist can gain +100 spins and the next week miraculously gain +650 just to hit number 1, I won't hold my breath.
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jsb
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Post by jsb on Nov 12, 2014 19:14:09 GMT -5
Yes Keith has had some strange near misses but most of those were a while ago. I Told You So I'm In Put You In A Song all seemed headed to #1 and stalled at 2 and then Kiss A Girl had a sudden stop at #3 despite its strong performance in the Hot 100 chart. Lately it has been pretty smooth sailing for his singles. Cop Car was an outlier but that was a record company deciaion to move on. Otherwise smooth fast runs for Without You, LHS, YGF, Little Bit, and We Were Us.
With no new 1st single in the works and Keith just entering the creative phase of new music as I writes this, there is no rush to complete SIMCs chart run, prior to the release of Raise Em Up to take him through the winter months. Keith will be working on new music during Idol as he has stated it is just a 2 day per week commitment from late January to mid May with most weeks him flying out of Nashville Wendseday morning and flying home Thuraday night, with his daughter enrolled in school the family will stay in Nashville and not LA for this season of Idol
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2014 19:41:11 GMT -5
^ I think the fact that "Cop Car" had a slight disappointment with its chart run (trying to get Keith back on track with another string #1 single) along with the fact that LBT is on the same label that Capitol knows what they are doing here. You bring up a good point about the fact that we still have 11 MB days and 12 Billboard days before the next chart week comes out after Frankie in all likely hood hangs on for #1 this week. The problem here is that I think Capitol is going to focus entirely on LBT next week. Frankie co-hosts Lon Helton's countdown this weekend (and his label put out "going for #1" ads as well), so it's clear that he and his team are aiming to be #1 on Monday. LBT co-hosts Lon's show on the 23rd, which suggests to me that Capitol will do a final push for "Day Drinking" beginning on Monday and running through the 23rd. So where does that leave Keith? For whatever reason, SIMC got powered up big time during Halloween week, when it gained a whopping 6 million on Billboard. Whether that was driven by the label or just radio naturally putting SIMC into power rotation, we don't know. But what we do know is that it suddenly put KU right into Frankie and LBT's company. And now today Keith jumped LBT on Mediabase. Furthermore, there's this ad in today's daily Aircheck email: I am starting to think that Capitol has switched gears here--it seems that they are going to battle with Frankie for the #1 on Monday, and regardless of the outcome, this could be the last bullet-ed week for SIMC. If Frankie is #1 on the 17th and LBT on the 24th, then Keith would have to wait until Dec. 1, unless he sneaks in a Sunday atop the Mediabase chart (for a MB-only #1). And I really don't think Keith can keep gaining through the end of the month. My guess is that either Frankie or Keith will miss out on the #1 this week, and then both of them will start falling by Tuesday or Wednesday next week, leaving LBT to take over the top spot by the end of next week. I'm well aware that it's been a while since Keith has had a #2 or #3 peak, but just because it's been a while doesn't mean it can't happen again. "Put You In A Song" was his last #2 hit, but that one never had much of a chance at #1 anyway--it moved slowly through the top 15 and there was no way it was gonna beat out Kenny's "Somewhere With You". "I'm In" was the last Keith song to inexplicably miss #1, in my opinion (that one seemed to have a clear shot at #1, but after it hit #2 it just...quit gaining), and I hope the same fate doesn't befall SIMC.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Nov 12, 2014 19:53:55 GMT -5
^ Now that gave me a sinking feeling in my gut when I saw that ad. I sincerely disagree with Capitol opting to get Keith to #1 this week since I still believe that Frankie has the clear inside track. This leads me to believe that there might be a split (or at least that might be what Capitol is shooting for here). Warner Music put out a full page ad asking to power "Sunshine & Whiskey" to #1 this past chart issue and I do know that Warner will fight to the bitter end.
If it turns out that "Somewhere In My Car" will go all out for #1 this weekend then I believe a split is the most likely scenario. Unfortunately we've seen these pushes get shut out a few times already this year and I just feel it might be unnecessary to do this right now. Keith still had a good two to three weeks left in his song to wait it out but the larger his gains are from now til Sunday, then that will be it. I really want "Somewhere In My Car" to hit #1 and pray that Capitol knows what they're doing here.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Nov 12, 2014 20:23:31 GMT -5
I don't believe what I'm reading here. Why does this happen to Urban as often as it does? I guess it could wind up OK with a Ballard #1 on the coming MB chart and an Urban #1 on the coming BB chart, but it was not necessary to create this crisis. There was room for all 3 candidates to make it to #1, and while I don't really like the "everybody gets a turn" style of chart we have been seeing lately, it's better to take turns at #1 than to come up with a strategy that creates a chance to lose out entirely.
Who was in such a rush? There's still a chance for Urban, but these ads are really not going to help. Fall short by 250k this coming week and then freefall? That's a disaster.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Nov 12, 2014 20:53:33 GMT -5
I think tomorrow and Friday's update will be the keys in this. I still think Frankie will get his week at #1, and then Keith can follow up the next week, and LBT will settle for a #2 peak the next week. But now I'm really curious to how Day Drinking will respond for the rest of the week. It seems like there are quite a few different scenarios that can shake out, so it'll be interesting to watch. I like all 3 songs, and want all of them to get a week at #1, but I'm also okay with another purge on the charts. Parmalee and Big & Rich made the top 10, but with both around 40 weeks, they need to go IMO.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Nov 13, 2014 13:38:46 GMT -5
Why the rush? I do not want to see Keith Urban missing out on a #1 here. Especially on the heels of his C.M.A. win.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Nov 13, 2014 14:07:59 GMT -5
Well Frankie pulled even further away today and LBT actually repassed Keith for the #3 position. "Somewhere In My Car" is still 300 spins and 1.6 million in audience behind "Sunshine & Whiskey". It's clear that Warner is determined to not have anyone at Capitol get in they're way of #1. We still have three days left to go on MB though and I pray that "Somewhere In My Car" hits the breaks (no pun intended) and let's Frankie get to #1 this week. There's still enough room to spare in terms of spins and audience to sustain through next week. But if Capitol does decide to gear up for a push this weekend, I fear that someone will be left out and it might be Keith.
Perhaps a split with Frankie getting the MB #1 and Keith the next day earning the Billboard #1 is becoming more likely but I still think this is a risk.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2014 14:27:38 GMT -5
I think today's update is a clear indication that Capitol will not challenge Frankie/WB for #1 this week. Frankie had a HUGE spin gain today (+183) so I think he's the clear favorite for #1 on both charts this week, but then he'll likely start to fall pretty hard by Tuesday or Wednesday.
So now it would seem that, if SIMC still has a shot at #1, the label has reverted back to pushing LBT first...which means Keith's best (and perhaps only) chance at topping the charts would be the week of Thanksgiving.
I think that's the smartest way to go, which is why I was confused when SIMC started posting huge gains over the last 2+ weeks and even passed LBT briefly yesterday. If Keith could have jumped LBT and Frankie and been the one to follow Blake at #1, that would have been the best-case scenario...but I never thought it was very likely that Keith could pass LBT let alone Frankie, and so all along I've been hoping SIMC would just hang back a bit and try to sneak in a week at #1 after LBT but before Maddie & Tae. Thankfully it now looks like that's what Capitol is aiming for as well. The only tricky thing here is keeping SIMC afloat through the end of the month, which might be tough to do given that it's posted such big gains over the last couple of weeks. But there's still plenty of room for optimism here.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Nov 14, 2014 11:48:47 GMT -5
I think today's update is a clear indication that Capitol will not challenge Frankie/WB for #1 this week. Frankie had a HUGE spin gain today (+183) so I think he's the clear favorite for #1 on both charts this week, but then he'll likely start to fall pretty hard by Tuesday or Wednesday. So now it would seem that, if SIMC still has a shot at #1, the label has reverted back to pushing LBT first...which means Keith's best (and perhaps only) chance at topping the charts would be the week of Thanksgiving. I think that's the smartest way to go, which is why I was confused when SIMC started posting huge gains over the last 2+ weeks and even passed LBT briefly yesterday. If Keith could have jumped LBT and Frankie and been the one to follow Blake at #1, that would have been the best-case scenario...but I never thought it was very likely that Keith could pass LBT let alone Frankie, and so all along I've been hoping SIMC would just hang back a bit and try to sneak in a week at #1 after LBT but before Maddie & Tae. Thankfully it now looks like that's what Capitol is aiming for as well. The only tricky thing here is keeping SIMC afloat through the end of the month, which might be tough to do given that it's posted such big gains over the last couple of weeks. But there's still plenty of room for optimism here. And what do you make of today's numbers? Approximately equal spins gains for LBT and KU, but KU added a good audience gain (400k) and LBT remained level. Tomorrow do we see another big day for LBT and a slowdown by KU? Or is KU heading for #2 on next week's BB chart? It looks to me like Blake will drop to #4 on both charts next week. And clearly Ballard will get a week at #1 on both charts. But the order in which KU and LBT will ascend to the top is unclear to me, and even if KU finishes this week at #2 with LBT at #3, that won't be a definite sign that KU's going to #1 ahead of LBT.
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Nov 17, 2014 0:15:56 GMT -5
There's a gigantic gap between Maddie & Tae and Tim McGraw. There's really no reason why LBT, Keith and M&T can't each get 1 week at #1. Tim McGraw is no threat for #1 until 4 weeks from now, so the timing works out perfectly for everyone.
My only concern is Capitol being satisfied with a split #1 scenario (LBT on MB and KU on BB). I think Mediabase #1 is more prestigious since that's what all the radio countdowns are using, so I'd hate to see Keith not get credit for a #1 from Helton/Kingsley/Brooks/Bones etc. Capitol better push for a Mediabase #1 for SIMC on 11/30 or I'd be upset! It deserves to be a multi-week #1.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2014 15:38:05 GMT -5
Billboard RTT:
Country No.1 Keith Urban Somewhere In My Car +2312 Blake Shelton Feat. Ashley Monroe Lonely Tonight
It's starting to look like this will go #1 before LBT does, or maybe LBT doesn't even get there at all. SIMC gained 287k today while LBT only gained 10k. LBT does co-host Lon Helton's countdown this weekend, but "Day Drinking" has already peaked on the secondary charts (BB Indicator and MB Activator), and at this point it just really looks like it's gonna have a hard time moving up much more. LBT's 7-day spin gain is down to +89, whereas Keith is up 247 spins in the last week.
It's only the first day of the new Billboard week, but still, if LBT were going to make a charge, you'd think you'd see it reflected in today's update. Instead it looks like DD is on life support. Keith entered the week more than 1.2 million ahead of LBT on Billboard, and ahead by 242 points on Mediabase.
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surfy
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Post by surfy on Nov 18, 2014 19:03:10 GMT -5
Heard this for the first time yesterday! AND I LOVE IT!!! First single from this era that I actually really like!!!
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Nov 18, 2014 20:00:39 GMT -5
That's 4 days in a row -- or is it 5? -- on which LBT has hardly moved up at all in audience. I really want Urban to get this coming week's #1 -- MB would be fine but I care more about Billboard. And I'm not starting to celebrate at all. No celebration allowed until Thursday morning. But this morning's numbers were nice.
I wonder if LBT's single is done -- it's not all that old a song, only one week on the chart longer than Urban's song, which is still gaining. But there are reasons to think Day Drinking is done. I have no rooting interest either way. The song's nice, but I think the Urban song is one of the best radio singles of 2014, in its lyrics, its arrangement, and its melody.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Nov 19, 2014 11:29:56 GMT -5
Heard this for the first time yesterday! AND I LOVE IT!!! First single from this era that I actually really like!!! What was wrong with A Little Bit Of Everything, We Were Us (with Miranda Lambert), and Cop Car?
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Post by surfy on Nov 19, 2014 12:24:41 GMT -5
Heard this for the first time yesterday! AND I LOVE IT!!! First single from this era that I actually really like!!! What was wrong with A Little Bit Of Everything, We Were Us (with Miranda Lambert), and Cop Car? Lol, idk I didn't like ALBOE, We Were Us was good, and Cop Car was decent, but I didn't love it! This is the first one I really like!!!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Nov 20, 2014 13:03:18 GMT -5
Keith currently sits at #1 today on the MB rolling chart. "Somewhere In My Car" increased 85 spins and 600k in audience today. Though "Day Drinking" increased 98 spins and just under 600k in audience as well. I suspect that Keith has the slimmest of leads in terms of points over LBT. Keith only had a lead of 242 total points on Sunday night, so my gut tells me that lead is probably 100 points or maybe less right now. I think that LBT will leap Keith come tomorrow or Saturday for the MB #1 and Capitol will try and make sure Keith keeps the Billboard #1.
This assuming they are content with "Day Drinking" being a MB only #1 which I'm fairly confident they are.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2014 13:35:13 GMT -5
Keith currently sits at #1 today on the MB rolling chart. "Somewhere In My Car" increased 85 spins and 600k in audience today. Though "Day Drinking" increased 98 spins and just under 600k in audience as well. I suspect that Keith has the slimmest of leads in terms of points over LBT. Keith only had a lead of 242 total points on Sunday night, so my gut tells me that lead is probably 100 points or maybe less right now. I think that LBT will leap Keith come tomorrow or Saturday for the MB #1 and Capitol will try and make sure Keith keeps the Billboard #1. This assuming they are content with "Day Drinking" being a MB only #1 which I'm fairly confident they are. I don't think these numbers are right. Here's what I had for their numbers yesterday: 3 2 KEITH URBAN Somewhere In My Car 7475 7324 151 54.904 4 3 LITTLE BIG TOWN Day Drinking 7476 7301 175 53.692 And here's what I have in today's update: 4 1 KEITH URBAN Somewhere In My Car 7560 7286 274 55.046 3 2 LITTLE BIG TOWN Day Drinking 7574 7330 244 54.284 LBT did indeed gain almost 600k this morning, but Keith's gain was less than 150k. Kworb's site is down but I'm pretty sure these are the correct numbers. In any case SIMC is still tracking at #1 on the Billboard RTT, but if the rest of the week goes like today's update, LBT could take the #1 on both charts. I'm still giving Keith the edge for Billboard but today's gain for "Day Drinking" was bigger than I expected. So we'll have to see how Capitol plays this.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Nov 20, 2014 14:44:59 GMT -5
Keith currently sits at #1 today on the MB rolling chart. "Somewhere In My Car" increased 85 spins and 600k in audience today. Though "Day Drinking" increased 98 spins and just under 600k in audience as well. I suspect that Keith has the slimmest of leads in terms of points over LBT. Keith only had a lead of 242 total points on Sunday night, so my gut tells me that lead is probably 100 points or maybe less right now. I think that LBT will leap Keith come tomorrow or Saturday for the MB #1 and Capitol will try and make sure Keith keeps the Billboard #1. This assuming they are content with "Day Drinking" being a MB only #1 which I'm fairly confident they are. I don't think these numbers are right. Here's what I had for their numbers yesterday: 3 2 KEITH URBAN Somewhere In My Car 7475 7324 151 54.904 4 3 LITTLE BIG TOWN Day Drinking 7476 7301 175 53.692 And here's what I have in today's update: 4 1 KEITH URBAN Somewhere In My Car 7560 7286 274 55.046 3 2 LITTLE BIG TOWN Day Drinking 7574 7330 244 54.284 LBT did indeed gain almost 600k this morning, but Keith's gain was less than 150k. Kworb's site is down but I'm pretty sure these are the correct numbers. In any case SIMC is still tracking at #1 on the Billboard RTT, but if the rest of the week goes like today's update, LBT could take the #1 on both charts. I'm still giving Keith the edge for Billboard but today's gain for "Day Drinking" was bigger than I expected. So we'll have to see how Capitol plays this. I have 54.4 million in audience written down for Keith's single. I'm not saying you're wrong, but that's what I have down. I re-checked the "Day Drinking" thread and 54.409 is what I posted there for Keith as well. In any event, LBT will take the MB #1 - that I'm sure of. The Billboard I would think would be taken by Keith if Capitol has it their way. But if LBT keeps this pace up I'm not sure if Keith can weather the storm come Monday. Capitol has an interesting situation here.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Nov 24, 2014 10:15:09 GMT -5
SIMC outgained DD by about 300k on this morning's MB update. That doesn't prove that Urban will get the #1 on tonight's (12/6) Billboard chart, but I think it's extremely likely. And I have no clue as to whether Capitol will keep promoting Urban for next week's MB #1 and possible second week on top of BB. But I am not greedy and I'll be satisfied if tonight's #1 is the only one Urban gets.
Nice job by Capitol to manipulate a few zillion spins and a Mediabase #1 for Little Big Town without costing their other artist at least a one-week visit to #1. The charts are so trustworthy these days....
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2014 11:57:16 GMT -5
I'd be shocked if Capitol just let "Somewhere in My Car" get a Billboard-only #1. No one willingly settles for a #1 on that chart only because then all the countdown shows will tell listeners that the Mediabase #1 that week, which is much less deserving of being #1 usually, was the only #1.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Nov 24, 2014 13:30:34 GMT -5
I'd be shocked if Capitol just let "Somewhere in My Car" get a Billboard-only #1. No one willingly settles for a #1 on that chart only because then all the countdown shows will tell listeners that the Mediabase #1 that week, which is much less deserving of being #1 usually, was the only #1. I think that Capitol will of course push for the #1 position on both charts. I think they slowed "Somewhere In My Car" just in the nick of time to allow it to maintain its numbers. Labels want a #1 on either chart though and the fact that listeners who tune into the countdown shows every weekend don't see a song hit #1 on the MB chart won't dramatically sway the label to go all out for the #1 position on that chart as well - in other words its not a huge deciding factor. Enough people (as seen here on this forum) follow Billboard and Capitol (if shut out on MB) will gladly be grateful for a #1 on the other chart. Even tough I think "Somewhere In My Car" will hold for another week on Billboard and grab the MB #1, there's still the unknown factor with how "Girl In A Country Song" performs this week. Capitol will certainly try to keep Keith's numbers as high as possible but you just never know for certainty if your song can maintain its stranglehold. This past week has gone pretty much according to plan for Capitol (though the Billboard chart hasn't officially come out yet). They'll try for the MB #1, but if disaster should strike, I'm sure Capitol won't be losing sleep at night.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Nov 24, 2014 17:35:32 GMT -5
Billboard's country chart is 70 years old, and anybody serious about country music history, and all-time records, pays attention to Billboard. True, it's more expensive to rent the BB numbers, so the countdown shows save money and use the MB numbers. That lends some credibility to MB, and there are many other reasons to consider MB a bona fide chart. I don't dispute that MB is an important chart.
But I guarantee you that whatever Capitol Nashville may think, Keith Urban cares about his total of Billboard #1 songs. Keith Urban cares about the history of country music at many different levels, and is conscious of his own place in that history.
Oh, and that's 17 #1's on Billboard for KU, after this afternoon's chart highlights confirmed what we'll be seeing tonight for ourselves. KU is at #1 again.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2014 17:54:56 GMT -5
I wasn't saying that Mediabase matters more than Billboard at all and I definitely view "Drunk Last Night" as more of a serious #1 than the countless Mediabase-only #1 singles we have had over the past two years. I just think that it's highly unlikely a label would settle for a Billboard-only #1 after this week when really Keith's natural "turn" to be #1 should be this coming weekend. I view this week at #1 on Billboard as lagniappe Keith received because the Little Big Town song couldn't put up the numbers to get to #1 on that chart. I'll also be surprised if Maddie & Tae end up being a formidable challenge for the Billboard #1 this week. They're currently almost 4 million behind Keith in audience on Mediabase and last Monday they were just over a million behind.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Nov 25, 2014 10:16:31 GMT -5
Well, Capitol can have a Billboard parade for Keith Urban and a MediaBase parade for Little Big Town. Just like Buffalo recently (due to snow), Nashville can shut down for a few days.
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