Markus Meyer
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Post by Markus Meyer on Aug 31, 2014 16:30:19 GMT -5
I wouldn't bet a fifth of whiskey on this just yet, but I do see a ghost of a chance that "American Kids" may be passed on Billboard by "Where It's At" this week and Broken Bow Records' promotion staff may try to block Chesney's song from going #1 on Billboard. Last week, "At" was less than a million behind "Kids" in audience and the Dustin Lynch record has gained more audience than the Kenny Chesney record every day this past week besides 8/26, when Chesney's song out-gained Lynch's song by a mere 20k. "Kids" is a much bigger hit than "At," but the Broken Bow Music Group is really good at this stuff and Columbia Nashville often falls short of #1 (their last Billboard #1 being "Come Over" back in summer 2012). I'm sure Columbia will kick "American Kids" into "big push mode" next week if they haven't already and Chesney's single will start posting some bigger gains, but if Dustin Lynch gets ahead by the next published Billboard chart, it may be too late for "Kids" to jump back ahead. The Dustin Lynch song wouldn't even be in the top 20 without the benefit of the iheart radio on the verge treatment it received. Kenny's American Kids single is his hottest he's had out in years ... it'll come it at #2 on the chart tomorrow at 11 weeks. American Kids has hardly any burn on the Callout America chart - it has plenty of legs left and will probably be a multiple week #1 no matter what radio shenanigans Broken Bow has planned to get Dustin's 23 week old song #1. As much as I dislike the OTV program in it's current form, I disagree that WIA wouldn't be within the top 20 without it. Sales have been strong and it's VERY radio friendly.
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Post by countrymusic20 on Aug 31, 2014 17:51:06 GMT -5
The Dustin Lynch song wouldn't even be in the top 20 without the benefit of the iheart radio on the verge treatment it received. Kenny's American Kids single is his hottest he's had out in years ... it'll come it at #2 on the chart tomorrow at 11 weeks. American Kids has hardly any burn on the Callout America chart - it has plenty of legs left and will probably be a multiple week #1 no matter what radio shenanigans Broken Bow has planned to get Dustin's 23 week old song #1. As much as I dislike the OTV program in it's current form, I disagree that WIA wouldn't be within the top 20 without it. Sales have been strong and it's VERY radio friendly. I disagree with you on its sales status ... yep yep sold 21,000 to get it to 465,000 ... I wouldn't exactly call that strong sales for a top 5 song. I do agree with you that it is radio friendly.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2014 19:12:05 GMT -5
As much as I dislike the OTV program in it's current form, I disagree that WIA wouldn't be within the top 20 without it. Sales have been strong and it's VERY radio friendly. I disagree with you on its sales status ... yep yep sold 21,000 to get it to 465,000 ... I wouldn't exactly call that strong sales for a top 5 song. I do agree with you that it is radio friendly. It's not bad sales though, either, considering that Dustin Lynch is still a newcomer. Besides, I seem to remember you being pleased when Craig Campbell's "Keep Them Kisses Comin'" went top 10, and that was a) On The Verge and b) sold less than Dustin's song here has. I'm not a huge fan of OTV either but Dustin would've still gotten a big hit with "Where It's At"--the only difference is that it would have started off slower. On The Verge relies on Clear Channel program directors selecting 1 song (out of several options) and then giving it increased airplay for about 6 weeks. After that 6-week period is up, it's up to the PD's to further increase the song's airplay on their own, based on its sales and call-out research. So, for a little while, Dustin got some accelerated airplay, but after that, it was completely up to radio and the fans to get that song into the top 5. I do agree with you, though, that Dustin is highly unlikely to block Kenny from the top spot. Chesney's got a mega-hit here and if anybody is blocking anybody from #1, it will be Kenny blocking Dustin. I am sure that BBR will try pretty hard to get Dustin to #1, but if he's going to get there, he'll have to wait until after Kenny is done. Columbia Nashville already had some max spins ads out for "American Kids" in the daily Aircheck emails this past week, so I fully expect them to top the charts next weekend (Sept. 7), thus holding "Bartender" to 1 week at #1. It's possible that Dustin holds Kenny to only 1 week at #1 as well, but that's way too early to figure out yet.
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Markus Meyer
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Favorite Single of 2020 So Far: “betty” by Taylor Swift
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Post by Markus Meyer on Aug 31, 2014 19:38:46 GMT -5
As much as I dislike the OTV program in it's current form, I disagree that WIA wouldn't be within the top 20 without it. Sales have been strong and it's VERY radio friendly. I disagree with you on its sales status ... yep yep sold 21,000 to get it to 465,000 ... I wouldn't exactly call that strong sales for a top 5 song. I do agree with you that it is radio friendly. It's been certified gold which is rather good.
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Post by countrymusic20 on Aug 31, 2014 20:50:57 GMT -5
I disagree with you on its sales status ... yep yep sold 21,000 to get it to 465,000 ... I wouldn't exactly call that strong sales for a top 5 song. I do agree with you that it is radio friendly. It's not bad sales though, either, considering that Dustin Lynch is still a newcomer. Besides, I seem to remember you being pleased when Craig Campbell's "Keep Them Kisses Comin'" went top 10, and that was a) On The Verge and b) sold less than Dustin's song here has. I'm not a huge fan of OTV either but Dustin would've still gotten a big hit with "Where It's At"--the only difference is that it would have started off slower. On The Verge relies on Clear Channel program directors selecting 1 song (out of several options) and then giving it increased airplay for about 6 weeks. After that 6-week period is up, it's up to the PD's to further increase the song's airplay on their own, based on its sales and call-out research. So, for a little while, Dustin got some accelerated airplay, but after that, it was completely up to radio and the fans to get that song into the top 5. I do agree with you, though, that Dustin is highly unlikely to block Kenny from the top spot. Chesney's got a mega-hit here and if anybody is blocking anybody from #1, it will be Kenny blocking Dustin. I am sure that BBR will try pretty hard to get Dustin to #1, but if he's going to get there, he'll have to wait until after Kenny is done. Columbia Nashville already had some max spins ads out for "American Kids" in the daily Aircheck emails this past week, so I fully expect them to top the charts next weekend (Sept. 7), thus holding "Bartender" to 1 week at #1. It's possible that Dustin holds Kenny to only 1 week at #1 as well, but that's way too early to figure out yet. Jhome - I don't disagree with anything you just said ... my guess would be that yep yep would just now be cracking the top 20 instead of the top 5 right now. This song is at 23 weeks on the charts ... I'm betting it would've taken about 35 weeks for Dustin to crack the top 5 without the OTV help - considering his struggles art radio with his last 2 singles. Yes, I was excited for Craig Campbell ... but I never said his song was selling great ... On the Yep Yep sales front ... yep yep is at #16 on soundscan and #5 on Billboard radio chart ... i interpret that as the single performing at radio a lot better than it is selling.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Sept 1, 2014 16:09:14 GMT -5
Today was very quiet for all 3 songs in contention. Looked like Kenny and Dustin were seeing whether Lady A wanted a second week -- since Lady A didn't step forward, I expect someone else will step forward in a big way tomorrow. And we could even see a split #1 week, but if it's Kenny who steps forward then I imagine he'll take both. I would be surprised if Kenny didn't eventually get the BB #1.
Updating as of Tuesday morning, Lady A looks like the winner, gaining 248k while Kenny and Dustin maintain a respectful distance with their 158 and 105k gains, respectively. If Lady A does get 2 weeks on top, then the pressure Luke Bryan's putting on the top songs might make it difficult for both Kenny and Dustin to fit in a week at the top. We'll see tonight what the totals each song has to make up on the others is on the BB chart.
Interesting group of top songs we are watching fight it out. Cole Swindell's another one who might be deprived of a #1. I can believe that, or that Lynch would miss out, but I would be amazed if Chesney were denied. Just seeing Kenny held to a one-week run at #1 is hard for me to expect.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Sept 3, 2014 10:23:59 GMT -5
#1 in Canada! I thought they were American Kids!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Sept 3, 2014 12:13:21 GMT -5
#1 in Canada! I thought they were American Kids! Perhaps if it was "North American Kids".
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2014 19:46:10 GMT -5
"Bartender" seems a lock for #1 again this week. "American Kids" isn't doing an all-out push this week (as "River Bank" and "Meanwhile Back at Mama's" did) from what I can tell, so "Kids" should surely get at least a Mediabase #1 next week. As for whether Kenny Chesney's record stays ahead of "Where It's At" in audience all the way until 9/15 so Kenny Chesney's single can be #1 on Billboard, this really depends on how strong the record labels are. I have learned that almost regardless of how "big" a single has been, the way things shake down in the top 2 mostly depends on how the record labels handle things. The past few days of Mediabase updates have started to lower the probability of Broken Bow Records managing to block Columbia Nashville this time around, though.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2014 20:16:50 GMT -5
"Bartender" seems a lock for #1 again this week. "American Kids" isn't doing an all-out push this week (as "River Bank" and "Meanwhile Back at Mama's" did) from what I can tell, so "Kids" should surely get at least a Mediabase #1 next week. As for whether Kenny Chesney's record stays ahead of "Where It's At" in audience all the way until 9/15 so Kenny Chesney's single can be #1 on Billboard, this really depends on how strong the record labels are. I have learned that almost regardless of how "big" a single has been, the way things shake down in the top 2 mostly depends on how the record labels handle things. The past few days of Mediabase updates have started to lower the probability of Broken Bow Records managing to block Columbia Nashville this time around, though. It appears to me that Broken Bow Records has [wisely] hit the brakes on Dustin's song this week, because they know they're not going to out-gun both Lady A and Kenny. So if "Where It's At" levels off a bit this week (which it has), the label will be more likely to get extra spins in the next week or two, and radio stations will be more likely to grant those spins. I definitely agree that Lady A has a 2nd week at #1 on lock, but next week could be interesting with Kenny vs. Dustin. Dustin has the benefit of an album releasing on Tuesday, but "American Kids" has clearly been the bigger hit, so I hope that their radio peaks reflect that. If we have to settle with Kenny getting just 1 week at #1 and then Dustin getting a week at #1 after him, I'd be fine with that, but I definitely hope that Kenny gets a #1 here--it would be a shame if Broken Bow went for a big push next week and held Kenny to a #2 peak.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Sept 8, 2014 16:04:36 GMT -5
Kenny Chesney's 23rd #1 hit!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2014 19:15:08 GMT -5
So glad this made it to #1 on Billboard.
Although I must say that I am quite surprised they didn't get to #1 on Mediabase yesterday, too. It's not very often that a song gets 2 weeks at #1 on MB but only 1 at BB, but that just happened with "Bartender". Kenny could be in that rare position where he gets a Billboard-only #1, but going off of today's Mediabase update, I'm inclined to believe that Columbia Nashville will be able to keep this at #1 all week and stave off any potential push from the Broken Bow camp (and that would mean 2 weeks at #1 on BB for Kenny, and 1 week at #1 on MB). Dustin Lynch had a relatively weak update today and his 7-day spin gain is down to just +51, so he might not be much of a threat. That could change, of course, but right now things look pretty good for Kenny.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Sept 8, 2014 19:46:03 GMT -5
So glad this made it to #1 on Billboard. Although I must say that I am quite surprised they didn't get to #1 on Mediabase yesterday, too. It's not very often that a song gets 2 weeks at #1 on MB but only 1 at BB, but that just happened with "Bartender". Kenny could be in that rare position where he gets a Billboard-only #1, but going off of today's Mediabase update, I'm inclined to believe that Columbia Nashville will be able to keep this at #1 all week and stave off any potential push from the Broken Bow camp (and that would mean 2 weeks at #1 on BB for Kenny, and 1 week at #1 on MB). Dustin Lynch had a relatively weak update today and his 7-day spin gain is down to just +51, so he might not be much of a threat. That could change, of course, but right now things look pretty good for Kenny. Looking off today's update, i expect "American Kids" to finish the week at #1 on MB, and I think Dustin will play nice, and then we will see a push for Dustin come around next Sunday/Monday. It'll be interesting though because "Roller Coaster" and "Hope You Get Lonely Tonight" aren't far behind Dustin, and one them could possibly try to out peak Dustin, in this case Cole probably being a stronger possibility in order to get his spot at #1 before the red hot Luke.
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Post by tim on Sept 8, 2014 21:26:34 GMT -5
Looking off today's update, i expect "American Kids" to finish the week at #1 on MB, and I think Dustin will play nice, and then we will see a push for Dustin come around next Sunday/Monday. The sooner Dustin's "Where It's At" ends its run the better. I am so over hearing the song...it is just played to death. I doubt I'll ever have any inclination to want to listen to that song again. Anyways, kudos to Kenny on the #1..."American Kids" still remains one of my favorites on radio right now.
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Kentucky25
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Post by Kentucky25 on Sept 8, 2014 21:38:18 GMT -5
I'll say, I really wasn't a fan of this, but it's different in such a good way, and as others stated when it first came out, the "little messed up, but we're all alright" is a line that I love and sticks with me. Happy to see Kenny get success with anything not beach related, that theme was tired after the first beach album.
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hosssulpizio
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Post by hosssulpizio on Sept 8, 2014 21:42:51 GMT -5
Looking off today's update, i expect "American Kids" to finish the week at #1 on MB, and I think Dustin will play nice, and then we will see a push for Dustin come around next Sunday/Monday. The sooner Dustin's "Where It's At" ends its run the better. I am so over hearing the song...it is just played to death. I doubt I'll ever have any inclination to want to listen to that song again. Anyways, kudos to Kenny on the #1..."American Kids" still remains one of my favorites on radio right now. I love "Where It's At". It should be at number one soon!
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Sept 8, 2014 21:53:55 GMT -5
I never really got into this song. I don't mind it, but I won't ever listen to it on my own watch. With this peaking at #1, 'm really just happy because I'm excited to hear the second single already. I'm hoping for something a little less campy, and a little more serious.
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Kentucky25
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Post by Kentucky25 on Sept 8, 2014 23:09:08 GMT -5
"The Big Revival" is available on iTunes.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2014 0:24:24 GMT -5
Here's an article about the song "Wild Child" from Kenny's upcoming album. Kenny Chesney: Country Music Should Be More Than Babes in BikinisFull Article Here
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2014 6:33:19 GMT -5
"American Kids" is going to pull of what I call "the split," which hasn't been done since Billy Currington's "Hey Girl" about this same time last year. This is a scenario where a single is a legitimate #1 hit but the timing is going to work out where the record may be blocked by some other song if it can't go up just a tad bit quicker, so the record label does some extra pushing a bit earlier and just barely sneaks in a week at #1 on Billboard before the natural peak week, and then all that's left to do the following week is achieve a Mediabase #1, which is certainly not a challenge unless the opposing label is Capitol Nashville. A good example of a time where "the split" would have come in handy is this past March when "Goodnight Kiss" failed to knock "Doin' What She Likes" from #1 after one week and consequentially was blocked from #1 on Billboard by "Drink to That All Night."
Kenny Chesney and Columbia Nashville are lucky that "American Kids" just barely sneaked in the Billboard #1 on Monday, because after a strange fluke last week where "Where It's At" slammed on its brakes big time, the Dustin Lynch single is having another strong week and has been #1 on Billboard since Tuesday. This weekend should see split charts between "American Kids" at #1 on Mediabase and "Where It's At" at #1 on Billboard. I'm going to put "Where It's At" down for another split and predict that by next Monday (9/22), "Roller Coaster" will be #1 on Billboard, then Luke Bryan will be the one to get both charts back on the same track by getting two weeks at #1 on Billboard.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2014 10:21:12 GMT -5
I'm glad this went number one for him. After "Life On A Rock" i was hoping he could make a comeback. I'm gonna assume "Florabama" is the next single
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Sept 14, 2014 17:34:57 GMT -5
Kenny indeed held off Dustin and achieved the #1 on MB this week.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Sept 15, 2014 10:49:25 GMT -5
Kenny indeed held off Dustin and achieved the #1 on MB this week. You are right. However, AllAccess has American Kids being Kenny Chesney's 25th #1, two more than his Billboard total. Does anyone know what his MediaBase only chart toppers are? Thanks!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Sept 15, 2014 12:23:50 GMT -5
Kenny indeed held off Dustin and achieved the #1 on MB this week. You are right. However, AllAccess has American Kids being Kenny Chesney's 25th #1, two more than his Billboard total. Does anyone know what his MediaBase only chart toppers are? Thanks! "Me And You" and "When I Close My Eyes".
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Sept 15, 2014 14:15:39 GMT -5
You are right. However, AllAccess has American Kids being Kenny Chesney's 25th #1, two more than his Billboard total. Does anyone know what his MediaBase only chart toppers are? Thanks! "Me And You" and "When I Close My Eyes". From 1996 and 1997, respectively. Both #2s in Billboard. I knew you would know. Thanks!
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stevieb1434
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Post by stevieb1434 on Sept 16, 2014 6:33:34 GMT -5
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