carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Nov 13, 2014 23:31:48 GMT -5
How many people are predicting Carrie Underwood to pass her cohost of the C.M.A.s, Brad Paisley next week into the top ten? I'm not convinced that "Something in the Water" will hold off "Til It's Gone" this week, never mind pass "Perfect Storm" next week. Whether because Sony Nashville is deliberately slowing this one down to let Brad (and perhaps Kenny) go up first, because country radio doesn't want three singles with lead female voices in top-10 rotation, or because the youngest approaching song is simply being made to wait its turn prior to being moved into top-10 rotation, this is the second consecutive week that "Something in the Water" has seen mediocre updates at radio. It's odd timing, considering the indications (i.e., sales, callout, streams) of the song's strong and growing public resonance. Which makes me think that it is deliberate, somewhat at least... I don't think Sony Nashville is going out of their way to hold back SITW while they let others rise, but I do think they are probably helping "Perfect Storm" and "Til It's Gone" more than SITW, if they are even helping it at all. I have a feeling that SITW is gaining much of its airplay on its own at this point, which is probably a statement of the obvious. But my point is that it doesn't seems to need help, especially considering the indicators you listed above. I'm kind of looking at this from a relative perspective because I'm not too knowledgable about the numbers, but the slow/steady gains suggest to me that the song is experiencing a rather un-impacted rise. Therefore, I think the song itself is doing most of the work. With this in mind, I think the label is trusting the song to float while they give others the pushes they might need. When SITW starts to show signs of trouble, I'm sure they'll hop right on it and do all they can - but I don't think they're too worried at this point... Maybe I'm way off, but I thought I'd give this chart analysis stuff a try, lol.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Nov 14, 2014 0:51:42 GMT -5
One also has to wonder that after already peaking at #1 on the Hot Country Songs chart, which whether people like it or not I believe does a good job of picking the most popular song at the moment, and this song not being from an upcoming album, but only a Greatest Hits compilation, if they are slightly less motivated to promote/push this one? I was a little surprised that this didn't garner any significant airplay after the CMA performance. I personally would have been pushing this song more early on and especially now, because I feel a Christmas time peak would make the most sense for this song, considering the Christians overtones to it. Not sure if they could have realistically made it to #1 by X-mas, but I think it would have made plenty of sense to have this at least be close to it's peak airplay around that time, but maybe it still can.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Nov 16, 2014 16:03:32 GMT -5
I don't understand labels pushing singles from albums that aren't selling. "SITW" has gone over very well with the public, so why wouldn't the label want to maximize that popularity?
These label shenanigans at radio are really disheartening. It's why I don't even listen to country radio anymore. It's not pure.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Nov 16, 2014 16:08:16 GMT -5
I don't understand labels pushing singles from albums that aren't selling. "SITW" has gone over very well with the public, so why wouldn't the label want to maximize that popularity? These label shenanigans at radio are really disheartening. It's why I don't even listen to country radio anymore. It's not pure. Then labels would only be pushing about 5 songs every couple months. A lot of times they're pushing the songs in hopes it will help them sell.
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Nov 17, 2014 20:51:37 GMT -5
I don't know about radio or label manipulation but the more I hear this song the more I think the odds of hitting the top Increase. I'm thinking the odds right now are, oh probably, at 100%.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Nov 17, 2014 21:31:12 GMT -5
Looks like they're going for push this week...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2014 22:18:38 GMT -5
Looks like they're going for push this week... This is a very common practice when it comes to labels and the ads they put out. It's simply an ad requesting power or top 10 rotation all across the board.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Nov 17, 2014 23:36:33 GMT -5
Even with the 2015 Mediabase chart year now underway having started yesterday, this chart manipulation practice isn't going away anytime soon, which is downright disgusting.
At least next week's top 10 with either this standout tune or Chesney's latest tune replacing Sam Hunt in the top 10 is going to constitute a SUPERB beginning to the new chart year, so let's see how long it lasts.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2014 23:44:57 GMT -5
I'm much more confident after the past few decent updates for this tune that Carrie's "struggling" was a manipulation by Sony to allow Brad and Kenny, who have songs that will probably need a little extra pushing due to declining artist momentum (Brad) and low sales (Kenny), to go up ahead. Unfortunately for Carrie, she now won't get to tie with some of country radio's biggest stars for the fastest-climbing top 10 single of the year, when just a few weeks ago it looked like "Something in the Water" might have almost had a chance of beating the record with a 5-week climb to the top 10. I also doubt this will get more than a week or two at #1, probably sometime in January. "Shotgun Rider" is now the front runner to benefit from the two weeks at the end of the year when the charts don't change much.
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surfy
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Post by surfy on Nov 18, 2014 2:11:35 GMT -5
This song is still great! I still love her! And her performances have been flawless so far! <3 Why must Carrie be so perfect?
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Nov 18, 2014 10:01:20 GMT -5
Is it possible that the label is expecting SITW to benefit from the religious mood at holiday time, and perhaps time their move up the chart to get to #1 for Christmas week and the week after? The timing looks good if this song has a late surge and Tim finishes up a little bit early. Carrie could easily re-pass Kenny, but Brad's getting a bit too far ahead so if she's going to overtake him, it's time for a push starting now.
Let's see, there are 5 charts still to come before the chart that contains Christmas day. One to Urban or LBT, one to Maddie/Tae, two to Tim, and I'm not sure where to allocate the 5th one. Maybe both Urban and LBT will get weeks at #1, which is what I thought a few days ago; but maybe they won't both do it. Maybe Paisley gets a week at #1. At any rate there are a lot of different ways to part out the 5 remaining chart weeks, but if Underwood takes over on the week with Christmas then she'd have a good chance to hold it the week afterwards. If that does happen, then the label played it very cleverly by allowing the growth to stay slow for a few weeks. It's very hard for me to picture this song falling short of #1, however hard it may be to guess which week(s) it happens in.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2014 11:43:52 GMT -5
Whether LBT or Keith is #1 on Billboard this week, I am definitely expecting two weeks at the top split in some way between the two. That leaves one week for Maddie & Tae and then Tim will likely hit the top by December 14, allowing Big Machine to put out ads in the December 15 trades requesting max spins through the holidays. It's unlikely that Brad or Kenny will have a hit strong enough to knock Tim from the top over the freeze, so unless Sony decides to push Carrie back ahead it will probably be mid-January before this hits the top.
I don't know if there will be that big a surge of momentum for this song at radio simply because of the time of year, but if sales are driven high enough then radio attention may rise proportionally.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Nov 19, 2014 11:32:48 GMT -5
I was hoping to see upward movement for Carrie Underwood. Instead, Kenny Chesney passed her.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Nov 20, 2014 19:56:35 GMT -5
It's frustrating because "SITW" in #1 in sales and #2 in streaming, yet remained at #12 in airplay. Get with it, radio!
Kenny Chensey passed Carrie in airplay, yet his song isn't top 10 in either sales or streaming. That shows how out of touch country radio is at the moment. Or more so how labels control it. Either way, I don't give radio play much weight.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Nov 20, 2014 20:26:25 GMT -5
It's frustrating because "SITW" in #1 in sales and #2 in streaming, yet remained at #12 in airplay. Get with it, radio! Kenny Chensey passed Carrie in airplay, yet his song isn't top 10 in either sales or streaming. That shows how out of touch country radio is at the moment. Or more so how labels control it. Either way, I don't give radio play much weight. So frustrating! If only Carrie had 17 consecutive #1 singles and if only this song was almost a certain to go to #1. So frustrating how country radio treats Carrie!!!!!
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Nov 20, 2014 20:57:15 GMT -5
It's frustrating because "SITW" in #1 in sales and #2 in streaming, yet remained at #12 in airplay. Get with it, radio! Kenny Chensey passed Carrie in airplay, yet his song isn't top 10 in either sales or streaming. That shows how out of touch country radio is at the moment. Or more so how labels control it. Either way, I don't give radio play much weight. So frustrating! If only Carrie had 17 consecutive #1 singles and if only this song was almost a certain to go to #1. So frustrating how country radio treats Carrie!!!!! Oh please. Mt point wasn't at all a criticism of how country radio treats Carrie. It was a lot more general than that, but of course you have your own agenda...
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bornfearless2000
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SOMETHING IN THE WATER
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Nov 27, 2014 0:15:29 GMT -5
#1 HOT COUNTRY SONG for third straight week.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Nov 28, 2014 14:06:53 GMT -5
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Dec 3, 2014 15:28:05 GMT -5
Something In The Water: Gold: 501,000 in sales. Congratulations, Carrie Underwood!
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ILLUSION
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Post by ILLUSION on Dec 8, 2014 19:05:08 GMT -5
Largest bullet in the Top 40. Obviously headed straight for #1. So frustrating how country radio treats Carrie!!!!! ...you have GOT to be kidding me. Country radio treats Carrie like a QUEEN. Now, other female artists like Kellie Pickler, now that's another story...
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 8, 2014 19:34:54 GMT -5
Largest bullet in the Top 40. Obviously headed straight for #1. So frustrating how country radio treats Carrie!!!!! ...you have GOT to be kidding me. Country radio treats Carrie like a QUEEN. Now, other female artists like Kellie Pickler, now that's another story... If you look at the post Matt quoted, you can see he was being sarcastic.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Dec 8, 2014 20:05:50 GMT -5
In spite of being MIA @ country radio for most of 2013, she came in NINTH in total spins for cryin' out loud!!!!
As Pacino or DeNiro might say, 'You got a problem with that?'
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2014 20:08:21 GMT -5
I'm now envisioning a scenario where "Til It's Gone" starts struggling in the top 5 and gets a Mediabase-only #1 while "Something in the Water" gets two weeks at #1 on Billboard and one on Mediabase, just like the situation with two Capitol Nashville songs, "Day Drinking" and "Somewhere in My Car," a while back. Kenny Chesney is booked to co-host Country Countdown USA Jan. 10 and 11, so my guess is Carrie Underwood's single will be #1 the third and fourth weekends of January. The sales for Kenny Chesney's single are just way too low for a Billboard #1. I can't remember a time in the past two years when any song with sales even close to this low has gotten to #1 on either chart. "Til It's Gone" does have great research and a perfectly radio-friendly sound going for it. Plus Carrie and Kenny are both on Sony, so I do think that Kenny will get a week at #1 on Mediabase.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Dec 9, 2014 10:25:33 GMT -5
In spite of being MIA @ country radio for most of 2013, she came in NINTH in total spins for cryin' out loud!!!! As Pacino or DeNiro might say, ' You got a problem with that?'Something In The Water will peak in early 2015 while Little Toy Guns gets released. Then a lead single from CD #5 and Carrie Underwood's spins will rank her higher in 2015 than in 2014.
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Dec 9, 2014 15:26:00 GMT -5
^^thats exactly right
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Dec 10, 2014 0:05:22 GMT -5
Billboard Year-End Charts 2014*Keep in mind that the tracking period for the construction of these charts ended a few weeks ago, so only the first few weeks of SITW's performance was factored into this. She was riding solely off of "Somethin' Bad." Hot 100 Songs#99 - "Somethin' Bad" Catalog Albums#40 - Blown AwayCountry Artists#42 - Carrie Underwood Hot Country Songs#10 - "Somethin' Bad" #58 - "Something in the Water" Hot Country Songs Artists#23 - Carrie Underwood Country Airplay Songs#47 - "Somethin' Bad" Country Digital Songs#14 - "Somethin' Bad" #46 - "Something in the Water" Country Streaming Songs#9 - "Somethin' Bad" Christian Artists#7 - Carrie Underwood Hot Christian Songs#2 - "Something in the Water" Hot Christian Songs Artists#3 - Carrie Underwood Christian Digital Songs#2 - "Something in the Water" #28 - "Jesus, Take the Wheel" #30 - "How Great Thou Art (Live From the Grand Ole Opry)" Christian Digital Songs Artists#2 - Carrie Underwood Christian Streaming Songs#11 - "Something in the Water" #44 - "Temporary Home" Christian Streaming Songs Artists#7 - Carrie Underwood God's disciple. Hot Country Songs #58 - "Something in the Water" Country Digital Songs #46 - "Something in the Water" A few weeks on the chart and it's already making impact!! Slay mama
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Dec 18, 2014 14:41:48 GMT -5
Little Toy Guns enters the mongrel chart at #40 while it is at #31 on the digital chart. How Great Thou Art debuts at #47 on the digital songs chart.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 17:08:35 GMT -5
A few weeks ago I had imagined a scenario where "Til It's Gone"'s awful iTunes sales caused it to get blocked by "Something in the Water," which got two weeks at #1 on Billboard (one on Mediabase), but after the past few days I am now seeing a scenario where "Til It's Gone" gets to #1 on the second chart of the new year (both Billboard and Mediabase) and Carrie gets blocked on Billboard by Eric Church's "Talladega" which has been gaining on this rapidly lately.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Dec 18, 2014 22:54:15 GMT -5
Okay, now this don't make since
This week, Carrie is #38 on Hot 100 while Tim McGraw is #39 and he is #1 on HCS while Carrie is #2. Why is Tim #1 on HCS for Billboard but Carrie is ahead of him for Hot 100? I thought it went by in order of Country songs on top 100 since Carrie is the highest on that list for any Country tunes.
Carrie moves up from #52 to #38 this week while Tim moves from #43 to #39. Something is kind of fishy if I may say.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 22:59:44 GMT -5
Okay, now this don't make since This week, Carrie is #38 on Hot 100 while Tim McGraw is #39 and he is #1 on HCS while Carrie is #2. Why is Tim #1 on HCS for Billboard but Carrie is ahead of him for Hot 100? I thought it went by in order of Country songs on top 100 since Carrie is the highest on that list for any Country tunes. Carrie moves up from #52 to #38 this week while Tim moves from #43 to #39. Something is kind of fishy if I may say. Only thing I can think of is radio influence from Christian radio (or elsewhere, I suppose) that pushed Carrie over Tim just the smallest amount.
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