sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 23, 2015 0:49:16 GMT -5
At this point, I'm wondering if this can even scrape the top 20. If has just been stagnant in the 40's, not doing much of anything. They have to be regretting their choice as the second single, especially with many of his peers all choosing to release more rootsy country type songs. To be honest, this one has been looking slightly more promising the past two to three weeks. It finally cracked the 3 million threshold on Billboard and is on the cusp of the top 40 on MB. It took a few weeks to get into the top 50 but since then as steadily got its wheels under it. Now this, like you said, can still easily not make the top 20 since I completely agree with the majority here that was a poor choice for the second single and the song itself is very mediocre at best. One thing's for sure, if this is going to get a top 20 or top 10 finish (which I still wouldn't quite bet on yet) it's going to be a long climb for Broken Bow.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2015 1:03:45 GMT -5
At this point, I'm wondering if this can even scrape the top 20. If has just been stagnant in the 40's, not doing much of anything. They have to be regretting their choice as the second single, especially with many of his peers all choosing to release more rootsy country type songs. I actually don't think Dustin's struggles really have anything to do with the single selection. I just look at most of the songs ahead of him that are "younger" songs and, well, how was Dustin supposed to hold any of them off? I suppose you could make the argument that Dustin should be beating out singles from the likes of Frankie Ballard, Kelsea Ballerini, Gloriana, and Canaan Smith, but virtually everybody else ahead of him on the charts is either a) a bigger name than Dustin is or b) their songs have been out longer...and since "Hell Of A Night" isn't a lead single, it's just not going to do as well or move as fast as "Where It's At" did. As for the artists that Dustin maybe should be ahead of, there's Frankie Ballard who radio is obsessed with for some reason right now. I get that his music is radio-friendly, but really, which artists aren't releasing radio-friendly singles these days? Frankie's album has some of the lowest sales of any new country artists (only about 70k sold) but his team and his label have somehow done a great job at turning him into a 'momentum' artist at radio. Then there are artists like Kelsea and Canaan whose labels are working very hard to break them through--in Kelsea's case, she's the only one currently being promoted by Black River. And then Canaan's single is selling very well. When looking at the chart, it's really no surprise to me to see Dustin where he's at. Rascal Flatts, Garth Brooks, Miranda Lambert, Little Big Town, The Band Perry, Josh Turner, Billy Currington, Zac Brown Band, etc. were all going to go up ahead of Dustin no matter what song he had out.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 23, 2015 1:25:16 GMT -5
^ Agree with most everything you said jhomes87 but I still find it interesting that Cole Swindell's "Ain't Worth The Whiskey" which went for adds on the same day is already inside the MB top 20 even though his song is more along the lines of traditional (still not calling it that) than Dustin's and both are coming off big #1 single's that peaked around the same exact time. Now you could make the argument that radio is more infatuated with Cole right now than Dustin (like the Frankie comparison you made), which I might agree with, but to me the song they chose has at the very least contributed.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2015 1:40:07 GMT -5
^ Agree with most everything you said jhomes87 but I still find it interesting that Cole Swindell's "Ain't Worth The Whiskey" which went for adds on the same day is already inside the MB top 20 even though his song is more along the lines of traditional (still not calling it that) than Dustin's and both are coming off big #1 single's that peaked around the same exact time. Now you could make the argument that radio is more infatuated with Cole right now than Dustin (like the Frankie comparison you made), which I might agree with, but to me the song they chose has at the very least contributed. With newer artists like Dustin and Cole, it comes down to radio picking and choosing, simply because they can't fit all of these new artists into top 20 or better rotation. Also, I believe that Dustin's album (released September 9) has only sold about 80-100k copies (estimate), whereas Cole Swindell's album (released February 18) has sold over 320,000 copies. I'm sure those numbers have played a part in each artist's overall momentum as perceived by radio. Obviously Cole's album was released a good 6+ months before Dustin's was, but going off of current chart position, Dustin's album can't be selling much more than 1000 to 2000 copies a week (if that)...simply put, he's never going to reach the numbers that Cole has, not even close. "Chillin' It" far out-performed "Where It's At" in digital sales, for whatever that's worth, and "Hope You Get Lonely Tonight" was also a moderate hit for Cole as well. So I stand by my opinion that Dustin's slow climb doesn't have anything to do with the song they chose. I just don't see how he was going to go up ahead of the dozen artists directly in front of him on the charts (no matter what song BBR came with). Radio is simply a lot more enthused about Cole and "Ain't Worth The Whiskey" than they are about anything Dustin Lynch right now. That's not to say that they don't like Dustin...it's just that he's not as popular as some of the other new artists right now, and of course it doesn't help him at all that there are so many big names that have hit the charts with new music recently.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jan 23, 2015 1:41:25 GMT -5
I feel like Cole Swindell has like twice the momentum that Dustin Lynch has. I really didn't expect this (or anything he released instead) to climb even close to the same speed that Swindell's single is currently rising. OTV gave Dustin's last single a serious boost, but he's not receiving that same benefit for this one so it doesn't surprise me at all that it's starting out slow. This is pretty much what I expect for the chart run of a Dustin Lynch single.
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Post by myeverything on Jan 23, 2015 12:38:39 GMT -5
I feel like Cole has the momentum partially because of his friendship, touring, etc with Luke. I may be in the minority here, but I would pick Dustin over Cole every time. I'm a really big DL fan (he won me over when he opened for Keith a couple years ago and I've been a big follower ever since) I'm also in the minority with my opinions of his albums and single choices. I think this album is fantastic, all the way around. It came out in September and I still listen to it all the time. I love every single song on it, there never is one that I skip. (I'm the same with his first album too, though) I prefer uptempo songs before songs like "Cowboys and Angels", in fact, that's probably my least favorite song he's recorded. My favorite on the album which I haven't seen mentioned at all yet is "What You Wanna Hear". "Halo" is incredibly catchy as is "Mind Reader". I'm also obsessed with "Sing It To Me" and I haven't seen that mentioned at all yet either. I honestly can't get enough of this album! The tour this summer with Luke will definitely help give him more hype but I've been saying ever since the album came out that I really think DL's gonna explode this year, it's gonna be a good one for him and I'm really happy for him. He's a great guy and has been working his rear end off!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 23, 2015 13:30:19 GMT -5
^ Agree with most everything you said jhomes87 but I still find it interesting that Cole Swindell's "Ain't Worth The Whiskey" which went for adds on the same day is already inside the MB top 20 even though his song is more along the lines of traditional (still not calling it that) than Dustin's and both are coming off big #1 single's that peaked around the same exact time. Now you could make the argument that radio is more infatuated with Cole right now than Dustin (like the Frankie comparison you made), which I might agree with, but to me the song they chose has at the very least contributed. With newer artists like Dustin and Cole, it comes down to radio picking and choosing, simply because they can't fit all of these new artists into top 20 or better rotation. Also, I believe that Dustin's album (released September 9) has only sold about 80-100k copies (estimate), whereas Cole Swindell's album (released February 18) has sold over 320,000 copies. I'm sure those numbers have played a part in each artist's overall momentum as perceived by radio. Obviously Cole's album was released a good 6+ months before Dustin's was, but going off of current chart position, Dustin's album can't be selling much more than 1000 to 2000 copies a week (if that)...simply put, he's never going to reach the numbers that Cole has, not even close. "Chillin' It" far out-performed "Where It's At" in digital sales, for whatever that's worth, and "Hope You Get Lonely Tonight" was also a moderate hit for Cole as well. So I stand by my opinion that Dustin's slow climb doesn't have anything to do with the song they chose. I just don't see how he was going to go up ahead of the dozen artists directly in front of him on the charts (no matter what song BBR came with). Radio is simply a lot more enthused about Cole and "Ain't Worth The Whiskey" than they are about anything Dustin Lynch right now. That's not to say that they don't like Dustin...it's just that he's not as popular as some of the other new artists right now, and of course it doesn't help him at all that there are so many big names that have hit the charts with new music recently. I never said it was supposed to be ahead of all the artists you mentioned - I don't know how that came to be. All I'm saying is that Dustin's song probably should be a little higher than it is currently. I also never implied that Dustin was some A to B list artist where his songs should be immune to slow climbs. It's obvious to most here I'm sure that his follow up to "Where It's At" (no matter what song) would have a slower climb up the charts than his first which was significantly aided by OTV. I would also say that radio is more into Cole than Dustin right now because of the sales Cole's songs have achieved which I'm sure is helped by the fact he's "bro-ish" than his other relatively newcomer peers. I know Cole's momentum is higher than Dustin. All I was saying is how ridiculously better Cole's song was doing over Dustin, and while those factors you listed I completely agree with, the song choice did not help whatsoever and to me that's pretty evident, but we obviously disagree on that particular aspect. I actually went back to Dustin's last second single off his debut "She Cranks My Tractor", which like "Hell Of A Night" followed a top 2 song ("Cowboys And Angels"). "She Cranks My Tractor" was at #23 on Billboard with 8.7 million in audience after 11 weeks, vs. "Hell Of A Night" which is only at #43 with 3.1 million in audience after the same amount of weeks. Now before anybody comes back with the fact Dustin's momentum and "flavor of the month" mojo was greater than it is now, I'd like to cut that off at the pass and say I also agree with that statement...Just something I find very interesting and how much radio is less enamored with his music, "Hell Of A Night" or another song, than they were back then.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jan 23, 2015 13:43:56 GMT -5
Yeah I agree with sabre14, why single choice might not be the only reason why this song is struggling, I cannot be convinced that it's not at least playing a minor role hear. While it had OTV to help it, "Where It's At" was still pretty popular, and went Gold if I do believe. I don't think its too much to ask of him for this song to be around the 30ish mark at least by this time, especially looking at some of the names ahead of him right now. But I think radio just views this song as a retread of some of the songs that dominated last summer and spring, and it virtually has the same theme as Where It's At. Florida Georgia Line can get away with this act, but not too many others. Cole, who's been brought up in comparison, has followed up his "bro" style song "Chillin' It" with a song about essentially a booty call (late night lonely type of song, but still different than girl in truck type song) and then a song about getting over a breakup. Each single has gotten successively less bro with each release. I really feel that radio would have gotten more behind Dustin's new single had he picked a more traditional leaning style song, like "Your Daddy's Boots", "She Wants A Cowboy", or even the more modern but thematically different "Mind Reader". The poor sales lead me to believe that general country listeners share the same sentiments. I really think they blew their opportunity, because there may not be much momentum left after this song stalls out.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jan 23, 2015 15:30:44 GMT -5
This appears to be selling pretty much what I'd expect a single from an artist of Lynch's caliber to sell in this area of the chart. Its sales will increase as it moves up the chart and gets exposed to more people. According to today's update on kworb.com, this is selling about as much as Lady A's "Freestyle" right now, and that one has a lot more audience (about 7x more) and is from an A-list country act. "Mind Reader" would've probably made sense as the second single given that it sold enough to debut on the low end of the HCS when the album was released and it has the most plays on Spotify of all the album tracks. But, I'm seeing nothing that really says that this was a bad choice and that this single is totally floundering, and I don't think anything else from the album would be off to any significantly better of a start right now. Even though Cole is leaving this one in the dust, this has only been out a week longer than Brantley Gilbert's latest single and doing a bit better than that one has so far, and Brantley has Dustin beat in popularity, star-power, sales, etc.
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Jan 24, 2015 16:41:47 GMT -5
This song hasn't grabbed me so far. Most of Dustin's singles have at least had flavor (unfortunately, "She Cranks My Tractor"'s flavor was moldy coffee grounds and broken glass). Yep Yep was catchy and interestingly produced enough to make up for its shortcomings, but this just seems to be lacking in pretty much everything. It's just My Kinda Party Lite.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2015 17:15:10 GMT -5
Yeah, like .indulgecountry alluded to, the Cole Swindell song is really the exception here. We could go around in circles and compare Cole's song and his momentum to Dustin's song and his momentum, we can bring up the fact that they went for adds the same day, etc. But that's ignoring a lot of other facts surrounding Cole's song. He's blown past artists like David Nail and Jake Owen, and they were coming off hits ("Whatever She's Got" and "Beachin'") that were bigger than Cole's recent hit. Jake is also a way bigger name than Cole is yet. Cole has also flown right past big names like Lady A and Dierks (granted, Lady A's song is selling really poorly, but still). Cole's gone up way faster than Tyler Farr, Easton Corbin, Billy Currington, Josh Turner, Joe Nichols, The Band Perry, Brantley Gilbert, and Justin Moore, and many of these artists had radio momentum that at least equaled Cole's, or perhaps was even greater. "Ain't Worth The Whiskey" has just been firing on all cylinders virtually since it was released. Good callout scores, strong sales...it's really the one song out of all the ones I listed that hasn't hit at least a slow patch or two. Perhaps some radio programmers are showing their bro-country fatigue when it comes to Dustin's song here but there are a lot of non-bro songs that haven't been moving that fast either. I only listened through Dustin's album once when it came out (and I didn't much care for it, hence why I didn't buy it), and while I thought some of the songs might have been better radio choices than "Hell Of A Night", I don't think any of them would be doing much (if any) better than this one. Maybe another single could've gotten off to a better start and thus been closer to the top 30 by now, but I just don't think there was nearly as much excitement surrounding Dustin (notwithstanding that "Where It's At" was a big hit) as there was with Cole.
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Kentucky25
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Post by Kentucky25 on Jan 24, 2015 19:48:47 GMT -5
I think it can also be attributed to the fact that Cole is linked to Luke Bryan a lot and people just like those guys a lot. They toured together and so the same crowd that loves Luke got to see Cole singing similar themed songs, whereas (and I'm not sure who Dustin's toured with) Dustin is doing bro material but judging from chart success on the first album, country fans prefer him singing songs like "Cowboys and Angels" to songs like this or "Cranks My Tractor". I think he really missed an opportunity to release "She Wants a Cowboy" when he released this one, which is probably my least favorite song from the album.
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Post by myeverything on Jan 31, 2015 15:33:57 GMT -5
^^ Dustin opened for Keith 2 summers ago. That's where he really got me. He opened a couple shows for Miranda, Tim and some others this past summer but just scattered dates here and there. As of May HE'LL be the one opening for Luke so it'll be interesting to see what happens when he's put into that scene.
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Kentucky25
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Post by Kentucky25 on Jan 31, 2015 16:02:10 GMT -5
^^ Dustin opened for Keith 2 summers ago. That's where he really got me. He opened a couple shows for Miranda, Tim and some others this past summer but just scattered dates here and there. As of May HE'LL be the one opening for Luke so it'll be interesting to see what happens when he's put into that scene. That'll help him immensely I think. Keith is a good tour but does not provide near the boost that being on Bryan's tour right now. I imagine we'll see an uptick in popularity for Lynch after the tour starts.
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Post by myeverything on Feb 1, 2015 13:36:48 GMT -5
As soon as I heard the new album, I knew it was only a matter of time. I truly think it's gonna be a very big year for DL.
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Post by myeverything on Mar 1, 2015 15:24:38 GMT -5
Does someone who really knows how the charts work care to explain to me a little more about this one? There is seriously NO buzz about it anywhere. What's it doing on the charts these days? If anything. lol! I know that y'all think it's too bro-country and like everything else that's out there these days, but if everyone else can at least find mild success, why can't DL with this one?
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 1, 2015 15:39:08 GMT -5
Does someone who really knows how the charts work care to explain to me a little more about this one? There is seriously NO buzz about it anywhere. What's it doing on the charts these days? If anything. lol! I know that y'all think it's too bro-country and like everything else that's out there these days, but if everyone else can at least find mild success, why can't DL with this one? It's just finished up week #17 on Billboard and is currently #40 on the Mediabase rolling chart, which means it will be either #38 or #39 this week, depending on if MB follows through and sends Toby's song recurrent tonight. It started off very slow but has since picked up its pace a bit; though this week wasn't that hot with just a 200k gain in audience and Carrie and Kip leaping "Hell Of A Night". Dustin doesn't have much buzz right now since this song isn't really moving the needle much with listeners and radio. It's plenty radio-friendly but it just may have been the wrong choice with it basically being the same ole, same ole subject matter that has been beaten into the ground lately. He also isn't a A-lister, so his climb was going to be relatively slow no matter what they picked (though I still contend this single choice made things worse than it had to be). In the end I expect this to at least make the top 30 with a decent shot at a top 20 peak. Broken Bow Records has shown that they like to stick with their singles for the long haul most of the time, so I think this song isn't really close to being done. If you're a fan of this song there is still some optimism to be had here.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2015 18:02:41 GMT -5
I'll take a risk here and predict a top 5 finish for this song, but I suspect that as with most of Broken Bow's roster Dustin Lynch isn't looking at a long, successful album era and three singles will probably be all we get from this record. I agree with sabre14's analysis that Dustin isn't moving the needle much with listeners at this point. However, I think his momentum from being an OTV artist last year and radio's general support for him will be enough for Broken Bow to force a second single up the charts.
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Post by Daryl the Beryl on Mar 1, 2015 20:15:23 GMT -5
Don't think this will even reach top 30
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jrekk
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Post by jrekk on Mar 2, 2015 4:43:45 GMT -5
He should just dump this and release his next big summer hit...Halo!
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Post by myeverything on Mar 2, 2015 21:57:06 GMT -5
Thanks for the input, y'all. Frustrating for a DL fan!
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Mar 2, 2015 22:21:34 GMT -5
Hard to believe that "Where It's At" is STILL in the top 10 on recurrent airplay. If it were still allowed to chart, it would be at #21 on the Airplay chart, and this song peaked way back in the beginning of October. There is no doubt that the recurrent play is hurting this follow up's chances. It was a decent sized hit, but I don't remember it being that popular.
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LBTrocks
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Post by LBTrocks on Mar 3, 2015 9:00:17 GMT -5
I'm surprised I haven't posted in this thread yet. I really love this song and was really hoping it would be a much bigger hit than it's shaping up to be. The lyrics are nothing special, but he has a great voice and it's very radio friendly. I think the melody, production, and instrumentation are all great. I've only heard this song on the radio a few times since it was released. It's very disappointing to me how badly this is underperforming. And I have to give a quick shout-out to myeverything. We used to post on a different forum together lol. This is countryrocks :)
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Post by myeverything on Mar 3, 2015 10:21:39 GMT -5
Hard to believe that "Where It's At" is STILL in the top 10 on recurrent airplay. If it were still allowed to chart, it would be at #21 on the Airplay chart, and this song peaked way back in the beginning of October. There is no doubt that the recurrent play his hurting this follow up's chances. It was a decent sized hit, but I don't remember it being that popular. See, I think "Where It's At" was a huge song. For DL or for anybody. But I didn't realize that it's still currently being played the way it is! Thanks for bringing that up! Just another thing to be frustrated over then... PD's playing that one and not the new one. I was thinking/hoping that "Where It's At" would have generated enough buzz to at least a decently peaking followup single. :|
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Post by myeverything on Mar 3, 2015 10:22:13 GMT -5
I'm surprised I haven't posted in this thread yet. I really love this song and was really hoping it would be a much bigger hit than it's shaping up to be. The lyrics are nothing special, but he has a great voice and it's very radio friendly. I think the melody, production, and instrumentation are all great. I've only heard this song on the radio a few times since it was released. It's very disappointing to me how badly this is underperforming. And I have to give a quick shout-out to myeverything. We used to post on a different forum together lol. This is countryrocks :) Hey there! haha!!
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Mar 3, 2015 10:27:58 GMT -5
Yeah, I think considering how much this is competing for airplay against its predecessor (I didn't realize his last single was still holding up that well :o ), that this isn't doing half-bad. I thought this was just having a typical slow chart climb because he's new and the charts are always so crowded nowadays, but that really shines a new light on this. When "Where It's At" finally gets released from the vice grip radio apparently still has on it, I expect this to take off a lot more than it has.
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Post by myeverything on Mar 3, 2015 23:00:59 GMT -5
I sure hope so!!
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Post by myeverything on Mar 6, 2015 19:08:58 GMT -5
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Mar 7, 2015 4:54:50 GMT -5
It really just looks like they're asking fans to pick an album track for him to perform on the Opry. I wouldn't read too much into it. I can't imagine them moving on to a third single anytime soon; at this point, that would do far more harm than good.
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Post by myeverything on Mar 7, 2015 9:44:30 GMT -5
Okay good!! Only reason I even saw it is because I'm going to that show on Tuesday night :) But just thought it was slightly interesting and wanted to see what some of y'all thought!!
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