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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Oct 31, 2014 17:13:15 GMT -5
One thing to consider is albums are also more front loaded today. it is intriguing though how a handful of albums end up so far above the rest lately -- Adele, Frozen, Taylor -- it's so rare for anybody to reach that. I'd be even more shocked if "1989" hits the 300+ mark of "Red'" in week 2. Amazing job by Taylor, who is clearly working it through endless promotion. It's not like she has sat back on her past success or SIO htting #1. It would be interesting to see where the slack is being picked up from Target, which is clearly a much weaker outlet than it was two years ago after the hacking debacle, which really hurt traffic. (I know they were counting of Taylor to get some people back in store.)
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Duca
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Post by Duca on Oct 31, 2014 17:51:44 GMT -5
Albums sales from different eras can be relatively compared through shares of annual album sales. Billboard has done it in the past and written several articles about it. Selling 500k in 2013 was equivalent to selling ~1.356m in 2000. Selling 1m in 2013 was equivalent to selling ~2.713m in 2000. Selling 2m in 2013 was equivalent to selling ~5.426m in 2000. Selling 3m in 2013 was equivalent to selling ~8.138m in 2000. Selling 4m in 2013 was equivalent to selling ~10.851m in 2000. For example, Oops!...I Did It Again and RED: Oops! (2000) First-week sales: 1.319m Total: 10m RED (2012) First-week sales: 1.208m Total: 4m When you adjust the market share, RED's numbers are equivalent to the following in 2000: First-week sales: ~3.002m Total: ~9.939m 20/20 opening with 968k last year was equivalent to opening with ~2.626m in 2000. -- And when I said that Taylor was the most successful female artist in the US ever, I meant statistically speaking, of course. Would be nice if those who said she wasn't said who was.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2014 17:53:16 GMT -5
What do the albums with 7 digits have in common, though? They're by Taylor Swift. Or Eminem, or Lil Wayne or a host of others A Taylor Swift release is an "event" to be sure. Her followup to this in a couple years may also break a million. I am just saying, at least at this level, there is no difference between 2014 and 2000. A million takes an "event" type album, and is rare in both eras but still happens given the right album As has been pointed out, what makes this unique is that if we're counting 1989, three of the past four "event" albums are Taylor Swift albums (and this is not to mention Fearless opening with 592k, an impressive number as well). Event albums may be a somewhat regular occurrence but when it's the same person, it really says something. Now, personally I think that where the theoretical difference lies is in the ending number, not the opening one. That is, assuming Taylor was a hugely popular star in 2000, she'd still be opening with close to the same numbers as she is now, maybe a bit higher just to account for economic differences and casual fans having more money to spend on spur of the moment purchases. But her ending sales numbers would probably be close to double, or even more, meaning she'd have more than one diamond album under her belt. "Event" albums are rare because they require a combination of HUGE core fanbase, flawlessly executed marketing plan that results in ubiquitous presence, and a general perception that the artist in question makes 'quality' music that you should get right away - this album to most people will be a more invested purchase, not just something you bought on a whim like a candy bar in the checkout aisle. In today's climate the issue is that general perception mark. It was something I wanted to comment on a few days ago, something dbhmr had said but I didn't have time. But having poked around different forums and online articles' comment sections I realize now that this is the biggest problem - many, many people are just not convinced that there is anything 'worth' buying. One person even said something like "Why would I waste money on your album now when I have cheap (or free) access to great music from the past 50+ years?" Now it's always been a running joke that old people hate the new kids' music, but now even the kids are hard to win over. Everything's easy to get, and it all feels disposable. Hell, it's even marketed in a disposable way. Look at how Taylor is 'sold' versus how the other big pop acts are sold, there is a very distinct difference when you think about it. Ubiquity is actually really easy if you have enough money to throw at the walls, but how do you make so many people care at once? Beyonce's self-titled album did a great job of accomplishing this but the sneak attack was a large part of that, and I don't know that Beyonce can duplicate that kind of success. I think 20/20 I really came close to securing that for Justin for good, but something happened on the way to heaven so I don't know that he has that same grip now that part II kind of went by the wayside. Adele could be the next coming of greatness or go the way of Norah Jones...Taylor is our only proven act and that is what makes her so remarkable. It isn't that opening huge is impossible but that for some reason, she and Big Machine are the only ones who are continuously getting it right.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Oct 31, 2014 18:36:40 GMT -5
One thing to consider is albums are also more front loaded today. it is intriguing though how a handful of albums end up so far above the rest lately -- Adele, Frozen, Taylor -- it's so rare for anybody to reach that. I'd be even more shocked if "1989" hits the 300+ mark of "Red'" in week 2. Amazing job by Taylor, who is clearly working it through endless promotion. It's not like she has sat back on her past success or SIO htting #1. It would be interesting to see where the slack is being picked up from Target, which is clearly a much weaker outlet than it was two years ago after the hacking debacle, which really hurt traffic. (I know they were counting of Taylor to get some people back in store.) I think it stands a good chance. Stories about her breaking breaking records will be everywhere. People want to be part of something big and historic. We like to feel like we own part of their success. After a presidential election, if you ask who people voted for, the winner always does significantly better than what their actual total was.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Oct 31, 2014 19:14:13 GMT -5
I just can't at how successful this cd is already. She will likely sell 1.5 million in two weeks (or, around that number give or take depending on the second week drop and first week actual number). That is already more or matching almost any other pop chick's recent albums. Then, she is only on one single so far and we haven't even hit the holiday sales yet. Like, I expected amazing sales, but not this amazing. She is sort of Adele-ing it by making everyone else seem like a joke lol.
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Nick
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Post by Nick on Oct 31, 2014 19:16:46 GMT -5
Is this the longest HITS thread ever, or does it just feel like it?
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Oct 31, 2014 19:20:33 GMT -5
I don't know for sure, but I am just assuming that Blackoutgate and the Mariah/Babs/Paramore threads beat this one handily, if not a few others.
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Linnethia Monique
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Post by Linnethia Monique on Oct 31, 2014 19:31:58 GMT -5
$.99 Born this Way Gate's thread was a nuclear meltdown over 30+ pages I remember.
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Clauss
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Post by Clauss on Oct 31, 2014 19:33:29 GMT -5
Red and Speak Now threads were like 15-20 pages too
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Post by Glove Slap on Oct 31, 2014 19:48:30 GMT -5
Is this the longest HITS thread ever, or does it just feel like it? Not even close. The Barbra/Paramore/Mariah one was 32 pages long. There's others too (the Susan Boyle domination ones were longer than you might expect these days).
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Oct 31, 2014 19:51:55 GMT -5
And now Susan Boyle can't even clear 20k lol
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Mark
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Post by Mark on Oct 31, 2014 20:05:09 GMT -5
Is this the longest HITS thread ever, or does it just feel like it? Not even close. The Barbra/Paramore/Mariah one was 32 pages long. There's others too (the Susan Boyle domination ones were longer than you might expect these days). Can someone link me to Mariah/Babs/Paramore?
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Oct 31, 2014 20:07:36 GMT -5
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Linnethia Monique
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Post by Linnethia Monique on Oct 31, 2014 21:27:41 GMT -5
The shade and the reads were unreal.
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Oct 31, 2014 21:33:19 GMT -5
I don't know for sure, but I am just assuming that Blackoutgate and the Mariah/Babs/Paramore threads beat this one handily, if not a few others. I had to glimpse at the Mariah/Babs/Paramore thread - loved your comment on PROMO on p.31. Timeless and, oh, so true. Hard to believe that was five years ago.
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Post by Push The Button on Oct 31, 2014 21:41:10 GMT -5
My comment about non-divas not being a factor at Pulse also still holds.
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Post by surfy on Oct 31, 2014 21:42:33 GMT -5
I need highlights... ain't nobody got time for that....
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Oct 31, 2014 21:47:55 GMT -5
Albums sales from different eras can be relatively compared through shares of annual album sales. Billboard has done it in the past and written several articles about it. Selling 500k in 2013 was equivalent to selling ~1.356m in 2000. Selling 1m in 2013 was equivalent to selling ~2.713m in 2000. Selling 2m in 2013 was equivalent to selling ~5.426m in 2000. Selling 3m in 2013 was equivalent to selling ~8.138m in 2000. Selling 4m in 2013 was equivalent to selling ~10.851m in 2000. For example, Oops!...I Did It Again and RED: Oops! (2000) First-week sales: 1.319m Total: 10m RED (2012) First-week sales: 1.208m Total: 4m When you adjust the market share, RED's numbers are equivalent to the following in 2000: First-week sales: ~3.002m Total: ~9.939m 20/20 opening with 968k last year was equivalent to opening with ~2.626m in 2000. -- And when I said that Taylor was the most successful female artist in the US ever, I meant statistically speaking, of course. Would be nice if those who said she wasn't said who was. The fault in that is opening sales are much more important in today's market than they were in 2000. Often times, the sales of the first week are used to justify whether an album is a success or not because those sales can make up a majority of, or at least a huge chunk of the album's overall sales total. If you took the average hit album from 2000 and compared its first week to its overall total, the ratio would likely be much different than the average hit album from 2013. Sometimes, the first week's sales are the only thing going for an album so a LOT of effort it put into that to make it count.
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Post by Push The Button on Oct 31, 2014 22:11:16 GMT -5
Yeah, Oops sold over 600k in its second week. 1989 won't do anywhere near that number.
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grandelf
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Post by grandelf on Nov 1, 2014 0:50:15 GMT -5
www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6304311/taylor-swift-1989-1-25-million-debutTaylor Swift's '1989' May Sell 1.25 Million in Debut WeekBy Keith Caulfield | October 31, 2014 9:26 PM EDT Taylor Swift's unstoppable new album, 1989, may sell 1.25 million copies in its first week, so suggest industry forecasters. The album could even approach 1.3 million, if the weekend is especially kind to the release. The album is the singer/songwriter's fifth studio effort and was released on Oct. 27 through Big Machine Records. 1989 is on course to earn the largest sales week for any album since 2002, when Eminem's The Eminem Show sold 1.322 million in its first full week on sale, according to Nielsen SoundScan. 1989's arrival would surpass the bow of Swift's last album, Red, which moved 1.208 million. (It was also the last album to sell a million copies in a week.) Swift's 1989 should easily debut at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart, giving the entertainer her fourth chart-topper. The new Billboard 200βs top 10 will be revealed on Nov. 5. 1989's sales forecast has climbed almost on a daily basis. It went from 800,000-900,000 a week ago, to over 900,000, to 1 million, then 1.2 million, and now 1.25 million. Whew! On SoundScan's Building chart (below), Swift is No. 1, followed by the new Now 52 compilation. The Building tally is a precursor to the final Billboard 200 ranking -- reflecting the first four days (Monday through Thursday) of SoundScan's tracking week as reported by six major merchants. The Now 52 album might sell around 90,000 to 95,000 copies in its debut frame. As for the rest of the Building chartβs top 10, Sam Hunt's Montevallo is No. 3, followed by Jason Aldean's Old Boots, New Dirt at No. 4 and Florida Georgia Line's Anything Goes at No. 5. Hunt's album will likely be the second-highest new entry on the chart by an artist for the week, with over 60,000 sold. Black Veil Brides' new self-titled album is No. 6, with Trip Lee's also new Rise at No. 7, and Barbra Streisand's Partners at No. 8. Black Veil Brides and Lee might sell 30,000 and 20,000, respectively. Slipknot's current Billboard 200 No. 1, .5: The Gray Chapter, is No. 9, and Sam Smith's In the Lonely Hour is No. 10. NIELSEN SOUNDSCAN BUILDING CHART Rank LW BB 200 Artist Title 1 NEW Taylor Swift 1989 2 NEW Various Artists Now 52 3 NEW Sam Hunt Motevallo 4 6 Jason Aldean Old Boots, New Dirt 5 5 Florida Georgia Line Anything Goes 6 NEW Black Veil Brides Black Veil Brides 7 NEW Trip Lee Rise 8 8 Barbra Streisand Partners 9 1 Slipknot .5: The Gray Chapter 10 11 Sam Smith In the Lonely Hour The Building Chart reflects the first four days (Monday through Thursday) of SoundScan's tracking week (which ends Sunday) as reported by six major merchants: iTunes, Trans World Entertainment, Best Buy, Starbucks, Target and Anderson Merchandisers. Billboard estimates that they make up about 85% of all U.S. album sales.
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Hefty Hanna
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Post by Hefty Hanna on Nov 1, 2014 0:50:55 GMT -5
omg please
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Nov 1, 2014 3:30:31 GMT -5
This is the Billie Jean of Pulse threads, the one that will bring generations together
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Nov 1, 2014 3:31:55 GMT -5
if the weekend is especially kind to the release. LOL
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inclinations
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Post by inclinations on Nov 1, 2014 10:21:19 GMT -5
new queen of pop
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Green Baron
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Post by Green Baron on Nov 1, 2014 10:39:39 GMT -5
Eww Black Veil Brides
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Nov 1, 2014 15:09:43 GMT -5
More embarrassing Billboard reporting...
We'll say 1.25M so that we can a) hedge our bets in case it doesn't quite do as well as it seems it will b) make it seem like we're not again getting scooped by Hits Daily Double and C) create a narrative whereby Swift "tops" another forecast.
But we'll mention that "kind weekend" thing just so you can't say we were wrong if it does 1.3M.
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Post by Kurt on Nov 1, 2014 15:17:02 GMT -5
I don't think it's embarrassing as much as it is an opportunity to write yet another article with higher sales numbers to pull in more pageviews, something they've apparently been focusing on since Janice Min took the helm (and maybe before). (I also kind of doubt they're too bothered by HITS, but that's just a guess based on opinion I've heard from a couple of their current/former staff.)
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Nov 1, 2014 17:10:13 GMT -5
Billboard loves click bait, that's nothing new. The whole "she'll probably be #1" stuff is absurd though. No one is going to sell 1/10th of her sales this week. We don't need to keep hedging on who will be #1
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toomuchboy
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Post by toomuchboy on Nov 1, 2014 20:55:38 GMT -5
Hoping she breaks Britney's record! (Before Adele's new album takes it away from her.)
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 1, 2014 23:13:44 GMT -5
www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6304336/taylor-swift-1989-biggest-sales-week-since-2002?utm_source=twitterTaylor Swift's '1989' Set for Biggest Sales Week Since 2002: 1.3 Million-PlusBy Keith Caulfield | November 01, 2014 '1989' also aiming to beat Britney Spears' record sales week for a woman As the days tick by, the sales forecast for Taylor Swift's 1989 album continues to grow. As of Nov. 1, with only one full day left in the album's debut tracking week, industry forecasters now say 1989 could sell over 1.3 million copies through Nov. 2. Thus, the album is now aiming to surpass the one-week sales record for an album by a woman, set by the debut of Britney Spears' Oops! β¦ I Did It Again in 2000, when it arrived with 1.319 million, according to Nielsen SoundScan. 1989 is also set to earn the largest sales week for any album since 2002, when Eminem's The Eminem Show sold 1.322 million in its first full week on sale. The album's official debut week sales figure, as tabulated by SoundScan, will be announced on Wednesday, Nov. 5. 1989 is Swift's fifth studio effort and was released on Oct. 27 through Big Machine Records. A little over two weeks ago, forecasters pegged the new album to sell 750,000 in its debut frame. Then, about a week ago (Oct. 23), it was upgraded to 800,000. By mid-day Oct. 27, the album's release day, its projection grew to over 900,000. The next day: 1 million, followed by upgrades to 1.2 million on Oct. 29 and then 1.25 million on Oct. 31. 1989 will be Swift's third consecutive album to sell more than a million copies in its first week, making her the only act ever to earn three million-selling weeks. (She was already the only woman to do it twice since SoundScan started tracking sales in 1991.)
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