Cody Wants Out...
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Post by Cody Wants Out... on Feb 3, 2015 18:45:00 GMT -5
Good grief, this has 7 very strong weeks that get it just outside the Top 30 and then it starts to level and suddenly everyone is pushing the panic button. This has literally just gotten started, lol. There's nothing about this slowing down that concerns me based on what it had been doing. They aren't an A-list act at radio so this wasn't going to fly up the charts without slowing some, and the fact that something this unconventional for a radio single managed to start off as well as it did has me feeling pretty optimistic about this one's chart prospects. I don't see this being another Top 2 hit like "Pontoon," "Tornado," or "Day Drinking," but I feel like this has a great shot to at least make the Top 20. Something about this board causes people to freak out every time a song isn't steamrolling to the top... lol Yeah. I think even those songs that do "steamroll" up the charts hit a snag somewhere near the top 10 before flying to the top again, so I really find it that surprising that this "hiccup" is causing so much panic here. As to rsmatto's comment about the potential misinterpretation of "Girl Crush" being a lesbian song, I'll admit that I was expecting it to be a lesbian song. However, I think this may give the term "woman crush" a new meaning (although not the most accurate one ).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 1:09:15 GMT -5
Even though this isn't super "radio-friendly", it's one of the youngest songs in the top 40 and it's easily out-pacing a bunch of radio-friendly songs, including Easton Corbin's "Baby Be My Love Song", Joe Nichols' "Hard To Be Cool", Gloriana's "Trouble", Kelsea Ballerini's "Love Me Like You Mean It", Canaan Smith's "Love You Like That", Josh Turner's "Lay Low", Rascal Flatts' "Riot", Dustin Lynch's "Hell Of A Night", Brantley Gilbert's "One Hell Of An Amen", Justin Moore's "This Kind Of Town"...need I say more?
Plus this song is killing it on iTunes...it's top 15 on iTunes country and out-selling a bunch of songs that are top 10 or top 20 at radio, all of which have way higher audience levels (and thus, more exposure) than "Girl Crush" does. This might not be the most conventional release, but sometimes it pays off to take a risk. I mean, if 98% of the artists out there are releasing "radio-friendly" songs, you're gonna wind up with a bunch of radio-friendly songs that don't do well, lol.
Now I'm not necessarily saying that this will blow up and be a huge hit, but my goodness, it's barely gotten started here.
I for one am glad that LBT keeps pushing the envelope and not releasing obvious "radio-friendly" songs as singles. If more of the format's stars did this, then the format as a whole would be in a much better place IMO. Instead, country radio and most country artists have gotten so used to playing it safe (several currently-charting songs about driving around in a truck under the moonlight with nowhere to go and your girl riding shotgun come to mind) that they are scared to take risks, and as a result we wind up with a bunch of lightweight fluff and little substance.
Two of LBT's singles from their last album may not have been big hits at radio, but they certainly weren't lacking in quality, and the Tornado album sales were higher than albums sales for many of the format's biggest stars over the last couple of years.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Feb 5, 2015 10:48:17 GMT -5
The song's down another 150k and a few spins on MB this morning. I think the "don't panic" posts are right, and I am not losing sleep over this hiccup -- but I think I see what's going on. There was already an explanation for this song's failure at country radio before the hiccup started. People don't want to waste a perfectly good explanation -- I know how that works, I've done it myself. Once you have an expectation, then whatever small negative occurs tends to look like proof of your theory.
Besides, "panic" is so much more appealing than "don't panic" -- what if it's right?
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Feb 5, 2015 13:20:53 GMT -5
It's just a shame radio isn't embracing a song that people clearly like. There are so many songs with high sales and streams that radio ignores, often because the songs are sung by females. I don't know why country fans even take radio seriously anymore.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2015 13:24:52 GMT -5
It's just a shame radio isn't embracing a song that people clearly like. There are so many songs with high sales and streams that radio ignores, often because the songs are sung by females. I don't know why country fans even take radio seriously anymore. While I agree radio's treatment of females is shameful, I don't see that being the case with LBT, since they've had a "touch and go" relationship with radio since "Boondocks" in 2005.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 5, 2015 13:25:10 GMT -5
I don't know why country fans even take radio seriously anymore.
Because most country fans don't know about the politics of country radio or even care enough to want to know. They hear the music they're station plays and enjoy it. Every friend I have falls in that category.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Feb 5, 2015 13:32:23 GMT -5
I don't know why country fans even take radio seriously anymore.
Because most country fans don't know about the politics of country radio or even care enough to want to know. They hear the music they're station plays and enjoy it. Every friend I have falls in that category.
This. 75% of the audience (my guesstimation) STILL consumes/gets exposed to music from radio at least on a partial basis. Songs like "Girl Crush" are considered "Slow" to many younger folks so that's probably why some stations have been reluctant to put the song into heavier rotations (as of yet). But sales suggest that it should be a hit eventually, even if it's never a #1 hit.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 5, 2015 13:35:18 GMT -5
It's just a shame radio isn't embracing a song that people clearly like. There are so many songs with high sales and streams that radio ignores, often because the songs are sung by females. I don't know why country fans even take radio seriously anymore. While I agree radio's treatment of females is shameful, I don't see that being the case with LBT, since they've had a "touch and go" relationship with radio since "Boondocks" in 2005. In all fairness, Little Big Town has had to settle for second place twice in their career. The first time is when they were on the Monument label in 2002. The hottest act there was the Dixie Chicks. Then they went to Equity in 2005 and that label folded three years later. Off to Capitol in 2010 and guess who is the biggest group there? That's right, Lady Antebellum. Currently, Lady A outdoes L.B.T. in terms of scoring bigger hits and sales. I have to agree that L.B.T. sounds better than Lady A, but Lady A happens to do better.
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Feb 5, 2015 19:51:48 GMT -5
It's just a shame radio isn't embracing a song that people clearly like. There are so many songs with high sales and streams that radio ignores, often because the songs are sung by females. I don't know why country fans even take radio seriously anymore. Well, count me in as one listener who really likes this song. Country radio has to come around to the 21sy century or the only people that'll listen will be Conway Twitty fans. I'm not knocking Conway, I like his music, but I liked even more in the 70s and 80s.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Feb 5, 2015 21:58:53 GMT -5
It's just a shame radio isn't embracing a song that people clearly like. There are so many songs with high sales and streams that radio ignores, often because the songs are sung by females. I don't know why country fans even take radio seriously anymore. While I agree radio's treatment of females is shameful, I don't see that being the case with LBT, since they've had a "touch and go" relationship with radio since "Boondocks" in 2005. How do you think radio decides which LBT songs it's going to play?
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Feb 8, 2015 12:07:23 GMT -5
When my mom heard this song, she thought that they explicitly wrote it with lesbian overtones simply so they could argue that the song doesn't have those overtones.
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Post by Daryl the Beryl on Feb 12, 2015 7:33:41 GMT -5
Debuts at #100 on the Hot 100.
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Feb 13, 2015 9:03:33 GMT -5
My mom again. She also thinks that because the narrator is obsessing over so MANY details of the ofher woman, that it must be about lesbianism. I think that's a strange take to say the least.
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avalyn
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Post by avalyn on Feb 14, 2015 10:16:01 GMT -5
Girl Crush Lyric Video.
There is supposed to be an actual video as well. It was filmed in December - January.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 14, 2015 19:03:32 GMT -5
While I agree that it's still early in this song's chart run, it is getting to the point to be fairly concerned about this song's stagnant numbers. "Girl Crush" is down 230k in audience this week. Its total audience has actually decreased 100k the past 13 days and has only gained 454k in audience the past 20 days (121 total spins increased in that time period). The sales are terrific (especially compared to the singles surrounding it) though and that still has me hopeful that this can find its way to the top 20 but these past three weeks are troubling if you ask me.
I agree that even though radio is less than arms wide open when it comes to these song, I want LBT to continue releasing this kind of music to radio, and I feel that their label embraces it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2015 8:37:02 GMT -5
I was just reading a discussion in the thread for "Sun Daze" about country music's popularity going down (particularly with the younger demos) and I came to the conclusion that it's not specifically bro-country that causes ratings and sales to go up, but rather unique, interesting-sounding songs like this that were drawing more crowds to country music. Country programmers are doing this to themselves if they don't play songs like this with major hit potential because they're not "safe" enough. "Girl Crush" would be a massive digital seller and probably even draw in some listeners who wanted to think of the song's meaning as a double entendre, but of course country radio has to preserve its "safe, old-fashioned, and pro-family values" image and could never touch a true hit like this that could possibly offend some of the more "conservative" listeners (while also spinning the heck out of songs about objectifying women and drinking irresponsibly). It's just disappointing to see country radio watching its ratings do down while almost completely passing on the type of song that could bring in a major ratings boost.
I'm also well aware from previous posts that my panicking is potentially premature and I'm not saying this is done altogether, but a song smashing this big on iTunes in my opinion shouldn't even be having any sort of slow period like this.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Feb 15, 2015 11:29:05 GMT -5
They really should try this on pop and AC even if it "fails" in country. It's a unique ballad that can work for those formats and not exactly explicitly "country".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2015 17:01:57 GMT -5
This is such an awkward song lyrically, but Karen sounds beautiful.
I can't see this being a hit for them, honestly.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 19, 2015 13:23:24 GMT -5
"Girl Crush" continues to struggle as it's down 132k audience since Sunday and up only 40k in audience today. Since January 25th, "Girl Crush" has accumulated just 154k in total audience on MB - which is really a shake my head moment considering how great its sales are. This song is #11 on the iTunes country chart and #87 on the all-genre chart. I mean it's one thing if a song is closely ahead of other songs around it on the singles charts, but "Girl Crush" is absolutely obliterating the other songs from #23 to #50. The closest one is Canaan's "Love You Like That" at #145 on the all-genre chart and if you take songs #31-#50, then Carrie's "Little Toy Guns" is the closest at #220 on the all-genre chart.
I'm actually someone who wishes so much isn't put into digital sales since this is the airplay chart, but at some point radio has to recognize that a song is really being embraced by the consumer. Not to say that LBT's song should be flying up the chart a-la Kenny or Tim's latest releases, but it certainly shouldn't be stuck in the mud right now. The sales and the fact this song is only 11 weeks old is what keeps the hope and optimism within reach but these numbers are starting to make me doubt this song will become a hit and right now it looks as if radio finds this one too polarizing to put it into heavy rotation.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Feb 20, 2015 20:08:47 GMT -5
"Girl Crush" continues to struggle as it's down 132k audience since Sunday and up only 40k in audience today. Since January 25th, "Girl Crush" has accumulated just 154k in total audience on MB - which is really a shake my head moment considering how great its sales are. This song is #11 on the iTunes country chart and #87 on the all-genre chart. I mean it's one thing if a song is closely ahead of other songs around it on the singles charts, but "Girl Crush" is absolutely obliterating the other songs from #23 to #50. The closest one is Canaan's "Love You Like That" at #145 on the all-genre chart and if you take songs #31-#50, then Carrie's "Little Toy Guns" is the closest at #220 on the all-genre chart. I'm actually someone who wishes so much isn't put into digital sales since this is the airplay chart, but at some point radio has to recognize that a song is really being embraced by the consumer. Not to say that LBT's song should be flying up the chart a-la Kenny or Tim's latest releases, but it certainly shouldn't be stuck in the mud right now. The sales and the fact this song is only 11 weeks old is what keeps the hope and optimism within reach but these numbers are starting to make me doubt this song will become a hit and right now it looks as if radio finds this one too polarizing to put it into heavy rotation. I think you've got this right. I think it's going to rebullet on Billboard this week, thus avoiding the possibility that it would compete its chart run at 11 weeks. But it needs to add 2-3 million in the next 4 or 5 weeks in order to have a realistic chance at the top 20, and despite the most wishful thinking I am capable of, I can't get myself to believe it. Now -- or never.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Feb 20, 2015 23:45:37 GMT -5
What the disparity between sales position and airplay rank represents for me here, as it did in the case of Kacey Musgraves' "Follow Your Arrow," is the opportunity cost of country radio's narrow orientation. There is an audience for this song, an audience that includes plenty of country music fans, and country radio is, at best, hesitant to serve that audience. The hesitation is largely inertial, since the kind of fans who might respond to "Girl Crush" are far from the kind of fans who came to country radio for the parties, beer and trucks.
I no longer believe that it is only country music fans listening to country radio. How could it be? Since 2011 or so, country radio has been programming to catch the drivetime drive-by listener more than has been programming to hold the attention of loyal long-time listeners, and the former has meant treating the CHR/Top-40, Hot AC, and Rock formats as direct competition. Now, perhaps rising Contemporary Urban stations are going to be seen as competition, as well. But basically, country radio is in many ways trying to be as catch-all as the download and streaming markets. Country radio has gone from playing the occasional crossover-style song balanced by purer country songs to emphasizing crossover-style songs along with songs that aren't remotely country. To the extent that this is the case, and as long as this is the case (which may not be forever), I think that the arguments against using download sales and streaming numbers as popularity indicators relevant to country radio are weakened.
Are the above developments at country radio something that I endorse? Certainly not. I would prefer diversity and balance that includes pure country, and I definitely wouldn't mind if songs that have no business being labeled country found homes on other mainstream formats. But we are emerging from a damaging-ly and self-reinforcing-ly narrow time at country radio (the ironic result of country radio's focus on drawing listeners from other formats), and it's unrealistic to expect an audience that has supported that narrowness to suddenly broaden its horizons, even if there are signs that it has grown tired of the repetition of lyrics and sound. The sales and streaming markets have supported more diversity (including more country) than country radio has over the past few years, and so for now, I see them as a viable way to identify audiences that country radio can attract or woo back. Like I said, so it is with "Girl Crush." It's clearly a hit song. And I think it will damage country radio's brand further if it continues to provide inadequate support for the full range of hit country songs.
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Post by loveofmusic on Feb 21, 2015 0:21:21 GMT -5
I love this LBT song. I was hoping it would make Top 20, but I was skeptical how radio would accept the song. Unfortunately, it looks very likely this won't make Top 20.
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Feb 21, 2015 11:19:40 GMT -5
This song sounds like it could easily be played on HAC/AC/Pop radio though, and listeners from other formats are much more accepting of lyrics like this and "Follow Your Arrow". My alternate theory is that this song is testing poorly with the conservative soccer moms/housewives that may feel uncomfortable. This is the demo that loves Traditional Country but socially conservative (i.e. they hate Luke, FGL and Kacey Musgraves equally, but give highest callout marks to Kenny/Tim/Brad/George, etc). I know it's easy to blame it all on pop-country, but I suspect there's another major Country demo that does not like these kinds of songs.
I personally love the song and hope it becomes a big hit!
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josh
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Post by josh on Feb 25, 2015 10:42:04 GMT -5
Does anyone have an estimate as to how many copies the Pain Killer album has sold? Has it broken 100K?
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Uncle Lumpy
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Post by Uncle Lumpy on Feb 25, 2015 11:02:32 GMT -5
I love this song but was doubtful it would do much chart wise. For better or worse , there is still a strong conservative base in the country genre . Much like "Beer With Jesus" , there are a lot of knee jerk listeners that will simply get in a huff without listening long enough to realize what the song is about. I still think its a shame that garbage like "Ready Set Roll" can be pushed up the charts because of sales but ignore sales when it comes to songs like this though.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Feb 25, 2015 12:00:39 GMT -5
My alternate theory is that this song is testing poorly with the conservative soccer moms/housewives that may feel uncomfortable. This is the demo that loves Traditional Country but socially conservative (i.e. they hate Luke, FGL and Kacey Musgraves equally, but give highest callout marks to Kenny/Tim/Brad/George, etc). I know it's easy to blame it all on pop-country, but I suspect there's another major Country demo that does not like these kinds of songs. Callout data doesn't bear out your theory -- not with respect to Kacey and Luke, and not with respect to "Girl Crush." According to Critical Mass Media's callout service, a significant portion of the "soccer mom" demo (women 35-44) is plenty into Luke Bryan. That demo currently ranks "I See You" as its #1 song (compared to its #5 rank across all demos) on that survey, for example. Luke's success has been built on a combination of adult contemporary songs and beat-based "bro" fare, so it makes sense that he would have as much appeal to 35+ women as he does (after all, he's in the 35+ demographic himself). Moreover, there's no evidence that that demo "hated" Kacey Musgraves. In fact, women 35-44 ranked "Merry Go Round" with a higher positives and lower negatives than men 25-44. The only demo that ranked "Merry Go Ground" better than women 35-44 was women 25-34. The lowest "pop score" and "potential" for the song came from Men 25-34. Here's the demo-by-demo breakdown of "Merry Go Round"'s numbers on that particular service, from 15 February 2013. Overall: Rank: #15 Pop Score: 73 Potential: 78 Positive: 60.9% Favorite: 24.5% Negative: 29.6% Net Positive: 31.3% Heavy Burn: 11.0% Familiarity: 93.4% Women 35-44Rank: #16 Pop Score: 72 Potential: 79 Positive: 60.6% Favorite: 24.8% Negative: 28.2% Net Positive: 32.4% Heavy Burn: 8.4% Familiarity: 91.2% Men 25-34Rank: #20 Pop Score: 70 Potential: 73 Positive: 58.3% Favorite: 19.3% Negative: 31.5% Net Positive: 26.8% Heavy Burn: 12.2% Familiarity: 95.8% Men 35-44Rank: #18 Pop Score: 73 Potential: 78 Positive: 59.1% Favorite: 27.3% Negative: 30.0% Net Positive: 29.1% Heavy Burn: 14.5% Familiarity: 93.6% Women 25-34Rank: #12 Pop Score: 75 Potential: 79 Positive: 62.9% Favorite: 25.5% Negative: 29.8% Net Positive: 33.2% Heavy Burn: 11.2% Familiarity: 94.1% Meanwhile, the demo-by-demo breakdowns for Luke's "Roller Coaster" and Florida-Georgia Line's "Dirt" from 12 September 2014 show that the former's best demo was women 35-44, which was the latter's worst demo. Here's the demo-by-demo breakdown of "Roller Coaster"'s numbers on the survey, from 12 September 2014 OverallRank: #5 Pop Score: 81 Potential: 91 Positive: 73.1% Favorite: 21.2% Negative: 12.3% Net Positive: 60.7% Heavy Burn: 5.1% Familiarity: 88.6% Women 35-44Rank: #4 Pop Score: 84 Potential: 95 Positive: 77.9% Favorite: 23.2% Negative: 11.9% Net Positive: 66.0% Heavy Burn: 5.1% Familiarity: 88.3% Men 25-34Rank: #8 Pop Score: 76 Potential: 85 Positive: 66.5% Favorite: 21.2% Negative: 18.6% Net Positive: 48.0% Heavy Burn: 7.1% Familiarity: 90.3% Men 35-44Rank: #8 Pop Score: 82 Potential: 89 Positive: 71.2% Favorite: 16.6% Negative: 10.0% Net Positive: 61.1% Heavy Burn: 4.4% Familiarity: 92.7% Women 25-34Rank: #7 Pop Score: 80 Potential: 91 Positive: 72.6% Favorite: 21.2% Negative: 10.9% Net Positive: 61.7% Heavy Burn: 4.6% Familiarity: 86.9% And here's a demo-by-demo breakdown of "Dirt"'s numbers on that particular survey from the same date (12 September 2014) [Keep in mind that numbers on this survey nearly always grow as airplay & familiarity grow] OverallRank: #17 Pop Score: 70 Potential: 85 Positive: 66.1% Favorite: 19.5% Negative: 15.0% Net Positive: 51.2% Heavy Burn: 5.3% Familiarity: 81.8% Women 35-44Rank: #24 Pop Score: 64 Potential: 82 Positive: 65.2% Favorite: 16.5% Negative: 18.5% Net Positive: 46.7% Heavy Burn: 4.7% Familiarity: 78.7% Men 25-34Rank: #12 Pop Score: 72 Potential: 84 Positive: 65.1% Favorite: 19.0% Negative: 15.9% Net Positive: 49.2% Heavy Burn: 8.6% Familiarity: 85.4% Men 35-44Rank: #16 Pop Score: 73 Potential: 85 Positive: 65.1% Favorite: 17.3% Negative: 13.2% Net Positive: 51.8% Heavy Burn: 2.9% Familiarity: 86.3% Women 25-34Rank: #15 Pop Score: 72 Potential: 89 Positive: 67.8% Favorite: 22.8% Negative: 12.6% Net Positive: 55.2% Heavy Burn: 5.1% Familiarity: 81.0% I had to go to Callout America data to test your theory with respect to "Girl Crush," and the numbers there put a pretty strong dent in your theory. While it's true that those 35 years and older (both male and female) are showing much higher dislike of "Girl Crush" than females under 35, a much higher percentage of females 35+ rate "Girl Crush" favorably than 35+. And the percentage of females 35+ who rate "Girl Crush" favorably is also higher than the percentage of males under 35 who rate the song favorably. I'll post the data -- first, the overall numbers for "Girl Crush," and then the feedback broken down into four groups: women 35 and over (your soccer mom demo), men over 35, women under 35, and men under 35: OverallLike a lot: 23.4% (#32 out of 35) Positive: 59.9% (#35 out of 35) Index: 3.67 (#33 out of 35) Neutral: 24.2% Dislike: 15.5% Strong Dislike: 0.5% Women 35+Like a lot: 19.8% (#31 out of 35) Positive: 60.4% (#27 out of 35) Index: 3.56 (#31 out of 35) Neutral 16.8% Dislike 21.8% Strong Dislike: 1.0% Males 35+Like a lot: 18.2% (#31 out of 35) Positive: 47.5% (#35 out of 35) Index: 3.42 (#32 out of 35) Neutral 30.3% Dislike 21.2% Strong Dislike: 1.0% Males under 35Like a lot: 19.8% (#33 out of 35) Positive: 54.5% (#34 out of 35) Index: 3.58 (#33 out of 35) Neutral 29.7% Dislike 15.8% Strong Dislike: 0% Females under 35Like a lot: 36% (#8 out of 35) Positive: 77% (#8 out of 35) Index: 4.10 (#8 out of 35) Neutral 20.0% Dislike 3% Strong Dislike: 0% I don't support relying on any one callout service, but the available data certainly doesn't point to the "soccer mom" demo as a problem for edgier singles/artists as much as it does male radio listeners of various ages. It also suggests that younger female listeners are the driving force for support for those edgier singles/artists at country radio.
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sgtoddball
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Post by sgtoddball on Feb 25, 2015 14:22:52 GMT -5
For some reason radio just doesn't want to play any ballads by Little Big Town. I really hate that Pontoon and Daydrinking seem to do well but their best songs never get a fair shake.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 25, 2015 15:07:52 GMT -5
Does anyone have an estimate as to how many copies the Pain Killer album has sold? Has it broken 100K? 137,000 sold thus far.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2015 16:40:15 GMT -5
Did this get performed somewhere on TV yesterday (by LBT themselves, or maybe on The Voice)? It's currently up to #32 on the iTunes all-genre chart. It's been selling very well (especially considering its low level of airplay), but not that well. For example, yesterday it was at #93 on iTunes...before shooting up to #32 today.
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josh
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Post by josh on Feb 25, 2015 16:43:50 GMT -5
They performed on the Ellen program. Karen killed the vocals.
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