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Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 26, 2014 16:11:02 GMT -5
YOUR NEW RELEASES (UPDATE): We’re adding a twist to our tracking of consumer behavior, with audio streams now entering the mix. Thus the forecasts below offer the accustomed album-sales figure followed by a new total factoring in single sales and audio streams. It makes us editorial nerds a little dizzy, because we’re English majors, but the sales geeks have patiently explained to us that in this calculus 10 singles = one album and 1,500 audio streams = one album. In a related story, the participants in Spotify’s upcoming IPO are feeling thankful. Eminem – SHADYXV (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope) 140-150k sales; 155-165k sales + streams Beyoncé – Platinum Edition (More) EP (Columbia) 50-55k sales, 70-80k sales + streams Rick Ross (Def Jam) 65-70k sales, 70-75k sales + streams Selena Gomez (Hollywood) 15-18k sales, 30-35k sales + streams Iggy Azalea (Grand Hustle/Def Jam) 11-13k sales, 25-30k sales + streams Pitbull (Mr. 305/RCA) 20-25k sales, 28-32k sales + streams David Guetta (Parlophone) 20-25k sales, 27-30k sales + streams (11/26a) ^Why are you adding Eminem's name to the SHADYXV release? HITS has removed it.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Nov 26, 2014 16:13:51 GMT -5
Unless you are Taylor Swift and the sales are basically even, how would it be possible to predict the chart placement of CDs? You would not be able to find out the number of streams until the chart comes out.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 26, 2014 16:18:31 GMT -5
^They are all estimates. Just a guide to what could happen...
The final chart can be (and will be) very different.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2014 18:01:48 GMT -5
Well we can still predict the album sales chart... The hot 200 doesn't matter anymore.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2014 22:46:34 GMT -5
I'll never really agree with combining streaming with sales, but on their own I already find myself intrigued by the streaming numbers, and I anticipate hyperanalyzing them in the next few months for differences and emerging patterns. Some people may quickly find themselves running out of excuses for piss-poor sales when it's revealed that their streams don't comparatively keep up either.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Nov 27, 2014 12:25:03 GMT -5
It's not like estimating streams is a total crapshoot. After the first day of two of release, you should be able to yet a fairly good guess at where streams will end up by the end of the week.
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Post by surfy on Nov 27, 2014 20:37:14 GMT -5
You can also check updates via Spotify by hovering over the popularity bars on a computer, so that should give you a pretty good idea of where it will end up...
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 29, 2014 22:43:20 GMT -5
Last year HITS gave us a Top 15 after Black Friday.
I guess not this year...
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grandelf
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Post by grandelf on Nov 30, 2014 1:01:37 GMT -5
No predictions by Billboard at all for their first chart that includes streaming?
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Post by Ginger Spice on Nov 30, 2014 3:06:44 GMT -5
I keep scrolling by this thread thinking it says "SHeDaisy". LMAO wouldn't THAT have been random if they had a #1 album.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Nov 30, 2014 11:51:10 GMT -5
I don't think the album chart will be any less predictable... You can see the HITS' prediction above and check iTunes and Spotify how separate songs are bought/streamed.. Obviously we are not going to see albums selling 10k and have streams worth of 100k. At least very soon
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Dec 1, 2014 10:17:21 GMT -5
Albums released in 2014
Thanks to oldbloke for these estimates!
ALBUMS WEEK 47
2,215,000 - 1989 - Taylor Swift ( 2,215,000 ) 836,000 - IN THE LONELY HOUR - Sam Smith ( 836,000 ) 763,000 - THE OUTSIDERS - Eric Church ( 763,000 ) 757,000 - GHOST STORIES - Coldplay ( 757,000 ) 665,000 - NOW 50 - Various ( 665,000 ) 644,000 - JUST AS I AM - Brantley Gilbert ( 644,000 ) 631,000 - PARTNERS - Barbra Streisand ( 631,000 ) 627,000 - GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY: AWESOME MIX VOL.1 - Soundtrack ( 627,000 ) 600,000 - X - Ed Sheeran ( 600,000 ) 556,000 - OLD BOOTS NEW DIRT - Jason Aldean ( 556,000 )
548,000 - G I R L - Pharrell Williams ( 548,000 ) 543,000 - 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER - 5 Seconds Of Summer ( 543,000 ) 529,000 - NOW 49 - Various ( 529,000 ) 526,000 - PLATINUM - Miranda Lambert ( 526,000 ) 450,000 - V - Maroon 5 ( 450,000 ) 445,000 - XSCAPE - Michael Jackson ( 445,000 ) 430,000 - TURN BLUE - Black Keys ( 430,000 ) 410,000 - THE NEW CLASSIC - Iggy Azalea ( 410,000 ) 405,000 - ULTRAVIOLENCE - Lana Del Rey ( 405,000 ) 391,000 - MASTERMIND - Rick Ross ( 391,000 )
387,000 - FOUR - One Direction ( 387,000 ) 364,000 - ANYTHING GOES - Florida Georgia Line ( 364,000 ) 360,000 - MY EVERYTHING - Ariana Grande ( 360,000 ) 340,000 - NOW 51 - Various ( 340,000 ) 339,000 - OXYMORON - ScHoolboy Q ( 339,000 ) 333,000 - CHEEK TO CHEEK - Tony Bennett & Lady GaGa ( 333,000 ) 326,000 - KIDZ BOP 25 - Kidz Bop Kids ( 326,000 ) 323,000 - SHE LOOKS SO PERFECT (EP) - 5 Seconds Of Summer ( 323,000 ) 323,000 - 2014 GRAMMY NOMINEES - Various ( 323,000 ) 305,000 - LAZARETTO - Jack White ( 305,000 )
Very lackluster except for Taylor Swift and Sam Smith.
Pentatonix should be jumping onto this list this week.
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Post by Duca on Dec 1, 2014 14:42:24 GMT -5
CHART DATE: 12/01/2014 LAST UPDATE: 12/01/2014 11:43:37 NOW IN: 36.20%
LW TW artist / album label sales index 2 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 90,755 1989 3 2 PENTATONIX RCA 73,761 THAT'S CHRISTMAS TO ME -- 3 SHADYXV SHADY/AFTERMATH/INT 42,311 VARIOUS ARTISTS 1 4 ONE DIRECTION SYCO/COLUMBIA 32,367 FOUR 10 5 SAM SMITH CAPITOL 31,419 IN THE LONELY HOUR -- 6 RICK ROSS DEF JAM 22,208 HOOD BILLIONAIRE 5 7 GARTH BROOKS PEARL/RCA NASHVILLE 20,047 MAN AGAINST MACHINE 11 8 IDINA MENZEL WARNER BROS. 18,446 HOLIDAY WISHES 19 9 FROZEN WALT DISNEY 17,982 SOUNDTRACK 4 10 NICKELBACK REPUBLIC 17,848 NO FIXED ADDRESS 13 11 NOW 52 NOW 17,724 VARIOUS ARTISTS 9 12 MICHAEL BUBLE REPRISE 17,332 CHRISTMAS -- 13 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 16,980 PLATINUM EDITION (MORE) EP 35 14 MAROON 5 222/INTERSCOPE 16,175 V 41 15 ARIANA GRANDE REPUBLIC 15,776 MY EVERYTHING 18 16 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY HOLLYWOOD 14,960 SOUNDTRACK 7 17 FOO FIGHTERS ROSWELL/RCA 13,460 SONIC HIGHWAYS -- 18 PITBULL POLO GROUNDS/RCA 12,662 GLOBALIZATION 15 19 JASON ALDEAN BROKEN BOW 10,538 OLD BOOTS, NEW DIRT -- 20 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER CAPITOL 10,105 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER 29 21 DARIUS RUCKER CAPITOL NASHVILLE 9,834 HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS 32 22 SAM HUNT MCA NASHVILLE 9,004 MONTEVALLO 27 23 ED SHEERAN ATLANTIC 8,923 X 16 24 BARBRA STREISAND COLUMBIA 8,890 PARTNERS 14 25 FROZEN: THE SONGS WALT DISNEY 8,677 VARIOUS ARTISTS -- 26 ELLEN'S THE ONLY CHRISTMAS ALBUM WATERTOWER 8,627 VARIOUS ARTISTS 40 27 TONY BENNETT & LADY GAGA COLUMBIA/INTERSCOPE 8,084 CHEEK TO CHEEK -- 28 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE 8,007 747 23 29 HOZIER COLUMBIA 7,817 HOZIER 25 30 FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE REPUBLIC NASHVILLE 7,602 ANYTHING GOES 49 31 LUKE BRYAN CAPITOL NASHVILLE 7,050 CRASH MY PARTY -- 32 KELLY CLARKSON RCA 6,872 WRAPPED IN RED -- 33 KENNY CHESNEY BLUE CHAIR/COLUMBIA NASH 6,802 THE BIG REVIVAL -- 34 SELENA GOMEZ HOLLYWOOD 5,888 FOR YOU 22 35 GEORGE STRAIT MCA NASHVILLE 5,725 THE COWBOY RIDES AWAY -- 36 COLE SWINDELL WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 5,582 COLE SWINDELL 24 37 PENTATONIX RCA 5,498 PTXMAS -- 38 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 5,272 BRINGING BACK THE SUNSHINE 50 39 T.I. GRAND HUSTLE/COLUMBIA 4,601 PAPERWORK -- 40 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 4,601 BEYONCE 6 41 PINK FLOYD COLUMBIA 4,395 THE ENDLESS RIVER -- 42 NICK J0NAS ISLAND 4,109 NICK JONAS -- 43 BOB SEGER CAPITOL 4,101 RIDE OUT -- 44 NOW 51 NOW 4,037 VARIOUS ARTISTS -- 45 TIM MCGRAW BIG MACHINE 3,950 SUNDOWN HEAVEN TOWN -- 46 CHRIS BROWN RCA 3,907 X 17 47 HUNGER GAMES:MOCKINGJAY REPUBLIC 3,889 SOUNDTRACK -- 48 IGGY AZALEA GRAND HUSTLE/DEF JAM 3,772 RECLASSIFIED 38 49 FROZEN WALT DISNEY 3,635 DISNEY KARAOKE SERIES -- 50 ELVIS PRESLEY SONY SPECIAL MARKETS 3,634 IT'S CHRISTMAS TIME
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Dec 1, 2014 14:56:53 GMT -5
They are really doing the most for Vance Joy's album. Amazon is selling the PHYSICAL for $3.99 right now.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Dec 1, 2014 15:09:41 GMT -5
This is one of those rare weeks that we have no idea what the sales are going to be like.
Lil Wayne's album has been delayed until 2015. That was supposed to be a big seller for 2014...
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Post by josh on Dec 1, 2014 15:29:54 GMT -5
Are these just album sales or album/track sales + streaming?
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Duca
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Post by Duca on Dec 1, 2014 15:32:57 GMT -5
This is one of those rare weeks that we have no idea what the sales are going to be like. Lil Wayne's album has been delayed until 2015. That was supposed to be a big seller for 2014... lol, that album will flop whenever it's released.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Dec 1, 2014 15:57:45 GMT -5
This is one of those rare weeks that we have no idea what the sales are going to be like. Lil Wayne's album has been delayed until 2015. That was supposed to be a big seller for 2014... lol, that album will flop whenever it's released. Even though Billboard/HITS estimated 1st week sales between 400k-600k?
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Post by Wave. on Dec 1, 2014 16:18:20 GMT -5
Next to Swift in recent openings, Wayne would be next to a million. Who knows this go around, it's up in the air, and he's only released two official singles so far.
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Post by felipe on Dec 1, 2014 16:47:46 GMT -5
Just to check if I got it right: if Blank Space and Shake it off sell a combined sum of 500k paid downloads this week, that'll add 50k "albums" to Swift's album sales figures?
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Dec 1, 2014 17:30:35 GMT -5
Just to check if I got it right: if Blank Space and Shake it off sell a combined sum of 500k paid downloads this week, that'll add 50k "albums" to Swift's album sales figures? Yes
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Dec 1, 2014 19:35:05 GMT -5
NOW IN: 50.65% 2 1 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 113,444 1989 3 2 PENTATONIX RCA 92,201 THAT'S CHRISTMAS TO ME -- 3 SHADYXV SHADY/AFTERMATH/INT 52,889 VARIOUS ARTISTS 1 4 ONE DIRECTION SYCO/COLUMBIA 40,459 FOUR 10 5 SAM SMITH CAPITOL 39,274 IN THE LONELY HOUR -- 6 RICK ROSS DEF JAM 27,760 HOOD BILLIONAIRE 5 7 GARTH BROOKS PEARL/RCA NASHVILLE 25,059 MAN AGAINST MACHINE 11 8 IDINA MENZEL WARNER BROS. 23,058 HOLIDAY WISHES 19 9 FROZEN WALT DISNEY 22,478 SOUNDTRACK 4 10 NICKELBACK REPUBLIC 22,310 NO FIXED ADDRESS 13 11 NOW 52 NOW 22,155 VARIOUS ARTISTS 9 12 MICHAEL BUBLE REPRISE 21,665 CHRISTMAS -- 13 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 21,225 PLATINUM EDITION (MORE) EP 35 14 MAROON 5 222/INTERSCOPE 20,219 V 41 15 ARIANA GRANDE REPUBLIC 19,720 MY EVERYTHING 18 16 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY HOLLYWOOD 18,700 SOUNDTRACK 7 17 FOO FIGHTERS ROSWELL/RCA 16,825 SONIC HIGHWAYS -- 18 PITBULL POLO GROUNDS/RCA 15,827 GLOBALIZATION 15 19 JASON ALDEAN BROKEN BOW 13,173 OLD BOOTS, NEW DIRT -- 20 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER CAPITOL 12,631 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER 29 21 DARIUS RUCKER CAPITOL NASHVILLE 12,292 HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS 32 22 SAM HUNT MCA NASHVILLE 11,255 MONTEVALLO 27 23 ED SHEERAN ATLANTIC 11,154 X 16 24 BARBRA STREISAND COLUMBIA 11,113 PARTNERS 14 25 FROZEN: THE SONGS WALT DISNEY 10,846 VARIOUS ARTISTS -- 26 ELLEN'S THE ONLY CHRISTMAS ALBUM WATERTOWER 10,784 VARIOUS ARTISTS 40 27 TONY BENNETT & LADY GAGA COLUMBIA/INTERSCOPE 10,105 CHEEK TO CHEEK -- 28 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE 10,009 747 23 29 HOZIER COLUMBIA 9,771 HOZIER 25 30 FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE REPUBLIC NASHVILLE 9,503 ANYTHING GOES 49 31 LUKE BRYAN CAPITOL NASHVILLE 8,812 CRASH MY PARTY -- 32 KELLY CLARKSON RCA 8,590 WRAPPED IN RED -- 33 KENNY CHESNEY BLUE CHAIR/COLUMBIA NASH 8,503 THE BIG REVIVAL -- 34 SELENA GOMEZ HOLLYWOOD 7,360 FOR YOU 22 35 GEORGE STRAIT MCA NASHVILLE 7,156 THE COWBOY RIDES AWAY -- 36 COLE SWINDELL WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 6,978 COLE SWINDELL 24 37 PENTATONIX RCA 6,873 PTXMAS -- 38 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 6,590 BRINGING BACK THE SUNSHINE 50 39 T.I. GRAND HUSTLE/COLUMBIA 5,859 PAPERWORK -- 40 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 5,751 BEYONCE 6 41 PINK FLOYD COLUMBIA 5,494 THE ENDLESS RIVER -- 42 NICK J0NAS ISLAND 5,184 NICK JONAS -- 43 BOB SEGER CAPITOL 5,128 RIDE OUT -- 44 NOW 51 NOW 5,046 VARIOUS ARTISTS -- 45 TIM MCGRAW BIG MACHINE 4,938 SUNDOWN HEAVEN TOWN -- 46 CHRIS BROWN RCA 4,884 X 17 47 HUNGER GAMES:MOCKINGJAY REPUBLIC 4,861 SOUNDTRACK -- 48 IGGY AZALEA GRAND HUSTLE/DEF JAM 4,715 RECLASSIFIED 38 49 FROZEN WALT DISNEY 4,544 DISNEY KARAOKE SERIES -- 50 ELVIS PRESLEY SONY SPECIAL MARKETS 4,542 IT'S CHRISTMAS TIME
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Post by surfy on Dec 1, 2014 21:50:10 GMT -5
Damn! Pentatonix is slaying!!!! <3
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Dec 1, 2014 22:13:38 GMT -5
I'm sure some major pop star is kicking themselves right now for not rushing out a Christmas album. How bizarre is it that Pentatonix of all people is somehow going to have this year's big holiday album?
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Post by surfy on Dec 1, 2014 22:43:56 GMT -5
I think it's pretty fantastic, and it shows that talent and hard work prevails...
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Post by Push The Button on Dec 1, 2014 23:30:24 GMT -5
I'm sure some major pop star is kicking themselves right now for not rushing out a Christmas album. How bizarre is it that Pentatonix of all people is somehow going to have this year's big holiday album? The biggest Holiday albums are usually surprises at this forum.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Dec 1, 2014 23:33:36 GMT -5
I'm sure some major pop star is kicking themselves right now for not rushing out a Christmas album. How bizarre is it that Pentatonix of all people is somehow going to have this year's big holiday album? The biggest Holiday albums are usually surprises at this forum. My early prediction had been Idina Menzel, before we heard the finish product. I think it could have been a huge album for her if they hadn't given her such awful arrangements.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Dec 2, 2014 3:20:07 GMT -5
Holiday Wishes is doing very well too though
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Post by Future Captain on Dec 2, 2014 5:25:16 GMT -5
Wow at Pentatonix, I think they're going to clear 150k this week.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Dec 2, 2014 9:19:03 GMT -5
New albums out today:
Target circular:
AC/DC $9.99 Mary J Blige $9.99
BestBuy.com:
AC/DC $12.99 Mary J Blige $9.99 She And Him $9.99 Wu-Tang Clan $9.99
On Oct. 22, HITS gave the following estimate for AC/DC:
AC/DC 250-350k
I wouldn't be surprised if they came in below 200k.
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