trebor
4x Platinum Member
Rock this quiet, little country town
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Post by trebor on Dec 3, 2014 12:48:50 GMT -5
;) Humorous and serious mixed. No offence, please
- Luke Bryan: Lead single off his 2015 album will stir controversy within the country community and cross over to pop. It will be the only digital track to generate 1 million downloads and top Hot Country / Country Streaming / Country Digital / Country Airplay simultaneously. The new album will start with over 500K and top the Billboard 200 / Current Album / Top Album Sales and Country Albums lists in its first and second week. Luke Bryan will be the only country artist to crack the Billboard Hot 100 Top 20. - Florida Georgia Line: The RIAA will revoke 1 platinum award for "Cruise" when it is known that the streams were generated by paid for sweat shops in Cambodia. Massive campaigning by Republic will move "Sun Daze" to MB #1. All subsequent singles from "Anything Goes" will fail to hit #1. The mix versions featuring Iggy Azalea and Lil Wayne will all fall flat. - Brantley Gilbert will score two #1 hits and Jason Aldean will go all the way with 3 songs.
- Love & Theft will be dropped by RCA in Q2 - Jana Kramer will release the raunchiest country video ever and garner some impressive VEVO numbers and a Hot Country Top 10 as a result - Kenny Chesney continues his streak of Top 10's that go recurrent by the 15th chart week - Garth Brooks will go to #1 with "Mom" and even secure a second number one off "Man Against Machine" which will have staying power on the album chart due to massive promotion and offers from both Walmart and Target throughout Q1 and Q2. - By April, The Swon Brothers will officially have their first airplay topper - All releases by Lady Antebellum will struggle. Every other week the digital platforms will take turns in offering "747" at 99c. - Little Big Town will be massive in 2015 with 2 number ones. - Tim McGraw will continue to release washy material and still succeed - CMA 2015: Half of the nominees refuse to attend when it is revealed that Nicki Minaj will perform a duet with Dolly Parton. "Jolene: In Da Pink Revenge Mix". - Jennifer Lopez' country debut produced by John Mutt Lange will be received with mixed feelings. The Spanish country versions will be quite successful in Florida, New Mexico and Texas. Too bad that none of these stations are on the BDS and MB panel. She gets Gold in Spain and The Philippines; the Japanese and French will love it. - There will be no female singer to reach #1 in 2015. Apart from Carrie Underwood who will be lifted to #1 because all competition goes recurrent - Rascal Flatts will continue their decline and no song will breach the Top 20 - Parmalee's next single which went for adds on 02/16/15 enters the Top 10 in late November/early December - Hunter Hayes: In a desperate attempt to get him back on track, Atlantic teams him up with Charli XCX and they smash on Pop. He announces his departure from country altogether (and the world sighs in relief) - November is proclaimed out day and two more country artists step forward (and one of them will not be the one with the "real good tan") - Lee Brice and Chris Young will continue to deliver but remain completely under the radar of public perception and media coverage - The radio market share of country will continue to increase in 2015 and at the same time songs will peak lower on the Hot 100 since pop streams will reach unprecedented levels. - Country digital sales which were the last genre to pick-up speed and go through the roof, will be the first to exponentially go down the drain. - Gator Park's current single will reach 1500 spins on Spotify (worldwide!) one year after release (unless I manage to click them up earlier by myself). Guys don't spend the Spotify check for 8$ in one go! :)
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2014 14:35:02 GMT -5
Maybe it's just because I absolutely hate the song, but I just feel like it's the kind of song that'll hit a brick wall somehow. You absolutely hate the song? That's a really strong word to describe a song about discovering something spiritual. But whatever. This isn't really a great thread to discuss opinions about a specific song, but I respect that not everyone needs spirituality and as such I understand why some wouldn't be fond of a song about needing to make a spiritual rediscovery to turn your life around. I believe the song can be both an uplifting, inspirational song to believers and an "eye-roller" to those who are more spiritual at heart and don't favor religious ceremonies as well as those who aren't spiritual at all. I think what Ten Pound Hammer was saying, though, is that he believes the song could hit a wall in the top 5 if there are enough radio listeners who feel the same way as he does. I don't expect this to happen at all, but it would make sense if there really were a large opposition to the song. Anyway, I have gathered a few predictions for 2015: *Blake Shelton will release a song that doesn't move the needle with listeners and struggles to get to #1. *Florida Georgia Line will earn three #1 singles: "Sun Daze," "Sippin' on Fire," and "Anything Goes." "Smoke" will be released towards the very end of the year. *Luke Bryan will release a new album after "I See You" and sell around 600k in its first week. *A Thousand Horses will be one of the most successful debut acts. *Dan + Shay will release "What You Do to Me," which will climb steadily to #1, sell like hot cakes on iTunes, and build some real momentum for the duo. *Maddie & Tae will be nominated for Vocal Duo of the Year at both award shows but not replicate the success of "Girl in a Country Song" at radio or on iTunes. Their debut album will sell around 30k in its first week. *Thomas Rhett and Cole Swindell will earn two #1 singles. Tyler Farr will earn one. *"One Hell of an Amen" will miss the top 10 but Brantley Gilbert will get back into the top 10 towards the end of the year with "My Baby's Guns N' Roses." *The Band Perry, Eli Young Band, and Rascal Flatts will release lead singles, but only TBP's will see any success. Big Machine will have a pretty dismal year at radio aside from a few hits for Tim McGraw, The Band Perry, Florida Georgia Line, Thomas Rhett, and maybe a few scattered top 10 hits from other artists. *Miranda Lambert will get her first Billboard #1 single since "Over You" with "Smokin' and Drinkin'" (unless you count "We Were Us"). *Jake Owen will release a new lead single that'll be a smash #1 hit. *Dierks Bentley will get "Say You Do" to #1 but after its slow climb his label may or may not decide to release "Five." If they do, it'll go to #1. *Luke Bryan will reign as Entertainer of the Year at both award shows, much to a lot of critics' and commentators' dismay. *New Revolution will experience more surprising success with "Lovin' Lately" for Big & Rich and "Just Another Love Song" for Haley & Michaels. *Chase Rice will be chosen as the first iHeartRadio On the Verge artist of the year and "Gonna Wanna Tonight" will reach #1 by May. He'll follow this up with "Do It Like This. trebor, Love and Theft have already parted ways with RCA Nashville.
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trebor
4x Platinum Member
Rock this quiet, little country town
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Post by trebor on Dec 3, 2014 15:02:06 GMT -5
Thanks for the heads-up. I'm really dazed and confused... :)
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bigfan101
6x Platinum Member
I am Sara Evans other fan.
Joined: July 2010
Posts: 6,651
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Post by bigfan101 on Dec 3, 2014 15:40:58 GMT -5
- Maddie & Tae win new artist at the ACM's and then beat FGL for duo of the year at the CMAs - CMA Entertainer will be Luke again, but some new blood will win the MV and FV awards, Miranda and Blake go home empty handed as will Jason who wont even be nominated - Craig Wayne Boyd wins the Voice and becomes successful in the genre; Cassadee Pope rebounds with her first single off her second album, Danielle Bradbery is dropped - New Artist Breakthroughs: Lauren Alania, Dylan Scott, Mickey Guyton, Josh Dorr, Levi Hummon, Brooke Eden - Dropped from their labels: Jennifer Nettles, Easton Corbin, Danielle Bradbery, Gary Allan, Lindsay Ell, Kelleigh Bannen - Thompson Square becomes relevant again; all five duo nominees have at top 5 hit with in the year - Eight women will have top ten hits this year - Carrie, Miranda, Kellie Pickler, RaeLynn, Lauren Alania, Cassadee Pope, Kelsea Ballerini and Mickey Guyton - Luke Bryan's new release will rival Taylor Swift Fearless numbers (600+), and be one of five albums to acheive Gold status - The ACC Awards will go away on Fox. The CMT's will be hosted by a rapper - Sam Hunt will win awards this year in country and will start the new phase of country music as bro country slowly dies out - Keith Urban will discover one solid American Idol contestant to sign to his imprint - LBT's Girl Crush wins song of the year
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2014 16:02:25 GMT -5
For 2015...
-Blake will continue to put up #1 songs with middle of the road to mediocre quality singles, after "Lonely Tonight" peaks at #1. I say 2 additional hits this year. -Luke Bryan's domination continues, he will release three #1 singles, that will follow the same pattern as the Crash My Party era. At least one of the singles will be universally panned by most everyone, a la, TMKON. His new album will come out between August and September and sell north of 400,000 copies. Entertainer of the Years should be in his future. -FGL fail with "Sun Daze" as the time of year is bad for this kind of single and the incredible levels of suck that this song achieves, however radio will quickly forgive them and they will be tops again with the next single. -Bro-country starts fading a little more and while not totally traditional country music will take hold a style similar to the early 2000s comes back. -Miranda will consistently reach the top ten, but only reach #1 with one single from Platinum, probably "Another Sunday in the South". She will continue her streak of FVOTY awards. -Maddie & Tae, make waves at the award shows by getting New Artist and Vocal Duo nominations, as well as a Single of the Year nomination for "Girl In A Country Song". They will, unfortunately fizzle out by only reaching the top 20 with the next single and then outside the top 40 after that. -Garth Brooks doesn't make the impact a lot believe he will. His tour will be huge but that's about it. His album should make Gold, but Platinum will be unlikely. His songs perform even more dismally. He may receive EOTY nominations, but won't win. -Carrie will hit #1 with SITW and "Little Toy Guns" by the late summer. Her debut single from her fifth studio album will be released and rocket to #1 and sell like crazy. Her fifth studio album will be released between October and November and will open with around 300,000 copies, and a #1 debut on country and the 200 chart. She may get her first CMA EOTY nomination, but won't win. Maybe 2016 will be her year. -Tim McGraw will continue with his mediocre music, but the success starts to fade with it. He will probably release another album in 2015. -Reba will release her new album in June to coincide with her Vegas show. The first single will be amazing, may make the top 20, but subsequent releases, unfortunately, struggle. The album will open with around 50,000-70,000 copies and between #1 and #5 on the country chart. She does receive FVOTY nominations. -Overall women will still struggle, but a few more than this year will reach the top 20.
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Post by tim on Dec 5, 2014 0:24:29 GMT -5
I'm not very good at these kind of things, but here goes:
- Luke Bryan and the label will probably want to release a new album sometime before next year's CMA's voting cut-off period, therefore I don't see any more singles from Crash My Party. His next album will be less bro-country and will show a lot of growth for him as an artist. He'll go on to win Entertainer of the Year at the ACM's and CMA's.
- Dierks Bentley's "Say You Do" will linger around the chart thru the holidays, however will pick up steam going into January and February. It'll make it's way into the top 10 and eventually be a #1. He'll release the best song on the album, "Riser," which will be another #1 hit for Dierks and earn him Song and Video of the Year nominations as well as another Male Vocalist nomination.
- Lee Ann Womack will win Best Country Album at the Grammy's as well as a nomination for Best Country Solo Performance; she'll also go on to earn a CMA Female Vocalist and Album nomination.
- Reba McEntire will earn a CMA Female of the Year Vocalist nomination.
- Tim McGraw will receive numerous CMA Nominations, including Album and Male Vocalist.
- Zac Brown Band will finally win CMA Group of the Year.
- Despite some chart success, Carrie Underwood will not win Female Vocalist at the CMA's nor will she be nominated for Entertainer.
- After "Mom" goes top 20 and struggles to go any further, Garth Brooks will not have any further success at radio from Man Against Machine. Despite his success on the road, he will not receive any Entertainer of the Year nominations. GhostTunes will also struggle to gain any traction past 2015 and will be looked back on as a gamble that Garth lost his bet on.
- "Lay Low" by Josh Turner will be one of the sleeper hits of early 2015 that will eventually go Top 10.
- Although Little Big Town struggle with "Girl Crush" and barely make into the top 20 on the airplay chart, it'll go gold; they'll follow-up with "Quit Breaking Up With Me" which will be a modest hit going into spring 2015.
- George Strait will release a new studio album in October or November of 2015 and its lead single will go top 20. He'll also announce a Las Vegas residency to begin in early winter 2016 and will likely continue performing in Vegas for the remainder of his five album contract with MCA. He will not be inducted into the Grand Ole Opry.
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sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 6, 2014 1:01:30 GMT -5
1. Luke will once again win Entertainer of the Year at the ACM's. Kenny Chesney will actually win the CMA Entertainer of the Year (not that confident in that one). 2. "Wild Child" will go on to be the one of the best selling songs of Kenny's career despite not reaching #1. 3. James Wesley will return with a new single in 2015. It will go top 40 but high enough to get an album out (big reach there hey, lol). 4. "Lovin' Lately" will get Big & Rich to the top 30. One more single will only go top 50 before the Gravity era is ended. 5. Gary Allan will return with a new single in the Spring and make a return to the top 20. 6. "Riot" will fail to reach the top 30. 7. Maddie & Tae will have a top 10 follow up to "Girl In A Country Song" 8. Brad will release "Crushin' It" and "Country Nation" as the third and fourth singles from Moonshine In The Truck. 9. Logan Mize's "Can't Get Away From A Good Time" will be an 'On The Verge' chosen single. 10. Blake Shelton will have his consecutive #1 singles snapped. 11. Kelleigh Bannen will be dropped from EMI Nashville. 12. Chris Young will release a lead single after "Lonely Eyes" peaks. The song goes on to be a big #1 song and is Chris' biggest hit. 13. "Hell Of A Night" bombs for Dustin Lynch and destroys any and all momentum gotten by "Where It's At". 14. One more independent label will shut down by the Summer. 14's enough. I'm not that good at these and that's why I put it off for a week.
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samsager3
New Member
Joined: March 2013
Posts: 329
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Post by samsager3 on Dec 7, 2014 0:51:35 GMT -5
Heres my predictions
1. Jason aldean wins acm artist of the year 2. Hunter Hayes releases another single from his current project it gets into the top 20 before he decides to release it to pop and it takes off 3. The swon brothers single pray for you bombs and they fail to get another song up the charts
4. Maddie and tie become the first new female act to have success in quite a while scoring two number ones but still lose duo of the year at the cmas to FGL but yet they win new artist
5. Gets his third single ain't worth the whiskey into the top 10 but it peaks at 7 and then he releases let me see YA girl and it becomes the summer breakout hit 6. Jake Owen finally gets award recognition for what we ain't got which makes it to 1 7. Darius Rucker takes home grown honey to 1 but the follow up only makes the top 10 8. Brad paisley score two more number 1s after perfect storm revitalizing his career 9. Garth Brooks realizes hell never get radio back without itunes and by christmas all his music is uploaded onto iTunes and ghost tunes is subsequently bought out by Apple 10. Jason aldean rides a luke Bryan type wave getting 5 number 1s 11. Blake Shelton finally has a song peack not at 1 12. Luke Bryan shocks everyone and releases his next single from a spring break ep it still makes it to 1 and he releases a new album in the fall which is successful 13. Thomas Rhett release a new album and leads it off with a 1 14. Florida Georgia line gets 5 number 1s and win entertainer of the year at the cmas amidst protests from traditionalists 15. Raelynn takes God madd girls to 1 thanks to on the verge and then every other single fails 16. Lee Brice takes the next step after drinking class gets to 1 and then he releases good man and that don't sound like you which are huge hits 17. Dallas smith becomes 2015s first on the verge artist and wasting gas goes all the way to 1 and he then follows it up with another 1 18. Chase rice fails to follow up ready set lets rolls success 19. Eric paslay surprisingly gets another 1 with she don't love you and shocks everyone with a cma nomination for male vocalist 20. Talladega becomes bigger than Springsteen and Eric church is able to follow it up with a man who was gonna die young and rollef coaster both going to 1 thanks to momentum 21. One hell of an amen goes to 1 and wins song of the year at the cma awards 22. Gary Allan attempts a comeback and it never takes off 23. zac brown band release a new album and it does ok but radio doesn't play it 24. Sam hunt becomes the new big star as he score another number 1 with take your time and releases single for the summer to country and pop and it becomes a summer anthem 25. Josh turner peaks with lay low in the lower 30s and releases another song that peaks similar 26. Craig Morgan sucsefully comes back and get a 1 hit 27. Easton Corbin hangs onto baby be my love song and it doesn't peak until around July when it reaches top 10 and he gets a new album out in the fall 28. David nail releases counting cars and it becomes his fastest rising 1 on the heels of a top 10 kiss you tonight 29. Miranda lambert sees follow up singles from platinum fail to make the top 10 making the sympathetic female crowd mad 30. Chase Bryant fails to hit top 20 with new release after a top 10 in take it on back
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14887fan
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2013
Posts: 11,254
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Post by 14887fan on Dec 7, 2014 1:43:45 GMT -5
I LOVE THESE SO MUCH
Serious 1. Carrie Underwood will see a healthy birth of her baby boy in March or April. She will release her fifth studio album in Q4 to a #1 opening on the Billboard 200 and sales on par/slightly higher than Blown Away's opening of 270k. She will achieve 3 #1s in 2015 -- "Something in the Water" and "Little Toy Guns" being two of them, with the third being the lead single of the fifth album -- and receive another Solo Country Vocal Grammy nomination for "Little Toy Guns". She'll be announced as the 2016 Superbowl Halftime Show performer and will announce a new tour for 2016. 2. Miranda Lambert will tour throughout the year and see 2 more top 5 hits from Platinum, with the fifth single being released towards the end of the year, but not peaking until 2016. She will win her sixth consecutive Female Vocalist of the Year trophy at the ACMs and her first-ever Entertainer of the Year trophy at the show, as well. Her CMA streak will end, but by who is still to be determined. 3. Luke Bryan will release another studio album during Q4 and will see an even bigger opening than Crash My Party's 528k. His lead single for the album will be the fastest-rising #1 of the year across the entire format, and it'll also give him his first-ever Top 10 Billboard Hot 100 entry. 4. Maddie & Tae will shock everyone by achieving 2 more Top 10 hits on Country airplay and showing that they have staying power in the format. They'll shock everyone even more by winning both New Artist of the Year at the CMAs and dethroning Florida Georgia Line in the Duo of the Year category, as well. They'll receive a nomination for both awards at the ACMs in April 2015 and will win New Artist but lose Duo to FLAGA. 5. Carrie Underwood and Miranda Lambert will win Video of the Year at the CMT Music Awards in June 2015 for their "Somethin' Bad" video. Additionally, the CMTs will mark Underwood's first TV performance since the birth of her baby. 6. Blake Shelton will see one of his single releases miss the top two entirely, breaking his incredible #1 streak. His tour will still be a hot ticket. 7. Jason Aldean will get married to Brittany Kerr and have a quieter second half of 2015. 8. Florida Georgia Line will see major push-back from Country radio towards one of their singles and never recover. Their egos will be bruised in the process. 9. Scott Borchetta will discover "American Idol"'s first genuine star since Phillip Phillips and bring some validity back to the show's diminished power to churn out stars. 10. Taylor Swift will record a surprise duet with a Country artist and they'll perform it on the CMAs in November 2015.
Not-So-Likely 1. Lauren Alaina will have a major comeback smash with the lead single of her second album and be the woman to dethrone Miranda Lambert for the Female Vocalist of the Year trophy at the CMAs in 2015. 2. Kacey Musgraves will release her second album to amazing sales and will achieve a #1 single release and another Top 5 single release from the album. The album will be certified Gold by the end of the year. 3. David Nail will dethrone Luke Bryan as the format's top-selling male album artist when he sees a huge breakthrough and scans a Platinum album. 4. Florida Georgia Line get arrested. (Actually, this one wouldn't surprise me, but I'll go ahead and file it under these 5.) 5. Jason Aldean smiles in public.
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 7, 2014 4:36:25 GMT -5
5. Jason Aldean smiles in public. If only smiling were a form of cheating, then this one might actually come true.
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gonecountry
3x Platinum Member
Joined: February 2014
Posts: 3,410
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Post by gonecountry on Dec 7, 2014 22:11:54 GMT -5
1. In a cost cutting move, all the Country Award shows are going to prospectively give Miranda Lambert the Album, Single, Song and Singer of the year for the next 5 years. 2. Ratings will eventually start to plummet as people will finally realize that one Country Music award show is in essence the same award show and there is absolutely no possibility of original thought. 3. In a clear sign of the impending Apocalypse, Chris Young will actually get invited to sing at an awards show. An asteroid will strike the earth the very next day.
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bjer127
New Member
Joined: April 2012
Posts: 414
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Post by bjer127 on Dec 8, 2014 13:28:05 GMT -5
I'll try my hand at some serious (maybe) predictions - Luke Bryan will tone it down for next album, due end of summer. It will include his usual style of bro-ness, but the remaining album will be really good , unlike Crash My Party. He will again be up for EOYT at CMA's. - Jerrod Niemann will return with a good lead single in April/May, with album to follow by end of year. Single takes 40+ weeks to make Top 5, goes Gold and Album does really well. Jerrod returns to a more traditional styling. Possibly, the label turns to Mickey Jack Coans to produce (a la Randy Houser, Dustin Lynch, Joe Nichols last albums). - Reba returns with a really good album. Single stalls at radio (go figure), but album sells and is lauded as a return to form for her. - Brooks & Dunn do a "reunion" tour of sorts after their Vegas stint, but no new music. Maybe a promo single to help the tour, but nothing other than that. Or another re-issue of a greatest hits with an added new song or two. - Females get back on track with radio (thank god, we sure could use 'em) - Dustin Lynch scraps "Hell of a Night", and turns to "Halo" or "After Party" as next single, which goes to #1. - Josh Turner releases his best album yet, Lay Low goes top 10 after 40+ weeks. Subsequent singles see moderate chart success. - Garth Brooks takes "Mom" to #1, releases "All American Kid" next, which only sees Top 15. He readies another album for November release, this album miles better than MAM. - Blake Shelton releases "Buzzin" in spring, then "Just South of Heaven" in September, both go #1. Get's nominated for Album of the Year at CMAs. However, label decides to push for another 5th single "Sangria", only to end his #1 streak. He goes on brief hiatus in early 2016. - Brett Eldredge returns with solid sophomore album, continues his rise to A-lister. - The Band Perry realize their lane is more with a traditional style ( like Gentle on my Mind). Release lead single in May, album by August, and it's way better than Pioneer. They regain any momentum they may have lost with last era. They finally end their string of Kimberly-angry-at-another-guy songs. - ZBB return with an eclectic album, fails to get any country radio success, except for lead single. Album has alot of different stylings with a few good hardcore country songs, some reggae, some rock, even some hip hop. Get's nominated for a Grammy.
I would write so much more, but in closing, I predict 2015 will see some really great music as the bro trend dies down. I still think we'll get our fair share of nonsense songs, but this time radio/programmers decide to split and play some other better stuff. Just look at this list of artists who plan to release an album in 2015, many of these much-anticipated type releases: Darius Rucker, Easton Corbin, Josh Turner, Tyler Farr, Kip Moore, Justin Moore, Chris Young, Billy Currington, The Band Perry, Keith Urban, Kacey Musgraves, Brandy Clark, Ashley Monroe, Jake Owen, Brett Eldredge, Luke Bryan, Craig Morgan, Alan Jackson, Reba McEntire, Vince Gill, Maddie & Tae, Jerrod Niemann, Carrie Underwood, Scotty McCreery, Lauren Alaina, Jamey Johnson, Gary Allan, Randy Houser, Thomas Rhett, RaeLynn and many more
I predict breakout artists this year to be: Mo Pitney, RaeLynn, Maddie & Tae, Chase Bryant
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tonyei31
New Member
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 244
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Post by tonyei31 on Dec 8, 2014 18:00:05 GMT -5
I will only make one prediction:
Ryan Kinder is the breakout artist of 2015 and he will have a #1 single by the end of the year, possibly a re-release of "Kiss Me When I'm Down"
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Post by tim on Dec 8, 2014 18:22:24 GMT -5
I will only make one prediction: Ryan Kinder is the breakout artist of 2015 and he will have a #1 single by the end of the year, possibly a re-release of "Kiss Me When I'm Down" Good prediction and glad to see I wasn't the only one who enjoyed that song. I even included it on my year end best of songs for the year. Let's hope he does break out in 2015.
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Marv
6x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2004
Posts: 6,308
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Post by Marv on Dec 8, 2014 20:23:48 GMT -5
Since the last 8 #1 Mediabase country singles of the year going back to 'Watching You' in 2007 were a!ready on the chart at this time of year, it's a pretty safe bet that next year's top single is in the top 40 right now, so start speculating fellow chartaholics!!!
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14887fan
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2013
Posts: 11,254
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Post by 14887fan on Dec 8, 2014 20:24:57 GMT -5
Now that it's released and I've had the pleasure of playing it over and over again...
Carrie Underwood's "Little Toy Guns" will be a multi-week #1, go Platinum (at the very least), and get nominations for both Solo Country Vocal and Country Song at the 2016 Grammys.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2014 20:38:10 GMT -5
Since the last 8 #1 Mediabase country singles of the year going back to 'Watching You' in 2007 were a!ready on the chart at this time of year, it's a pretty safe bet that next year's top single is in the top 40 right now, so start speculating fellow chartaholics!!! The Mediabase year-end chart is so hard to take seriously due to its extreme bias towards slow-climbers. I hardly feel it's a representation of the true top hits of the year at all. I almost wonder if the HCS methodology is best to determine the biggest hits since those factor in listener interest, which can't as easily be manipulated by the labels. Since this is a prediction thread, I could see "A Guy Walks into a Bar," "She Don't Love You," or "Lay Low" becoming sleeper hits and being the #1 song of the year. What I do think is noteworthy about this year's Mediabase #1 song was that "Beat of the Music" spent 13 weeks in the top 10, which no song has matched since "Reality" back in 2012, which spent 14 weeks in the top 10 I believe, so the #1 song could end up being whichever slow-climber gets the most weeks in heavy rotation. Eldredge got "lucky" because his top 10 run was prolonged by Luke Bryan's four-week #1 "Play It Again" and a few other huge hits that passed up "Beat of the Music" right when it entered the top 10, so his song got to spend more weeks in the lower half of the top 10 but didn't get blocked from #1 because it didn't make the top 5 until the top 10 started to clear up. Had Eldredge been in the top 5 when he got passed by the series of big hits, he'd have started struggling and probably wouldn't have gone the distance.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2014 20:59:52 GMT -5
I will only make one prediction: Ryan Kinder is the breakout artist of 2015 and he will have a #1 single by the end of the year, possibly a re-release of "Kiss Me When I'm Down" Good prediction and glad to see I wasn't the only one who enjoyed that song. I even included it on my year end best of songs for the year. Let's hope he does break out in 2015. I think there's a good chance that Warner Bros. will go with "Kiss Me When I'm Down" as Ryan's debut single for them. I too think the song has huge potential...it was one of the best songs I heard in 2014.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2014 5:05:39 GMT -5
1) Luke Bryan will remain as popular as ever in 2015. He will NOT release a Spring Break-themed EP, but he'll be back by May or June with the lead single to his 5th album. The album will be released late summer and will sell more than 600,000 copies in its opening week. It will be surprisingly bro-light and will finally show some artistic growth. Only 2-3 of the songs will be Luke co-writes; instead, he will continue to focus on tracks that are pitched to him from outside writers. Given his popularity, several good songs will come his way, and he and his management team will thankfully not shy away from some actually strong material.
2) Keith Urban will release "Raise 'Em Up" as the 5th and final single from his Fuse album. It'll be another big #1 for both Keith and Eric, and will go at least Gold. Keith will then take a couple of months off before releasing a lead single in late August or early September, with an album to follow in mid to late November. Keith's new material will be a progression of Fuse, resulting in his least country-sounding album yet. Like Fuse, the album will be heavily sonic-based, which will mean less of a focus on strong lyrics and storytelling.
3) Lady Antebellum will continue to decline in momentum. Their 747 album will top out at around 350,000 to 400,000 copies sold. Only one other single will be released after "Freestyle" (and neither will go top 10), and this time they won't actually re-release the album.
4) Dierks Bentley's "Say You Do" will have a long slow climb and eventually peak in the top 10. Dierks will push hard for "Riser" to be released as the 5th and final single from the album, and it will be a big hit late in the year.
5) Darius Rucker will take "Homegrown Honey" into the top 10, but its follow-up single will be a better song and a bigger hit.
6) True to his word, Eric Church won't be in a hurry to move on from The Outsiders; he will continue to churn out single after single from the album. "Talladega" will be a smash-hit #1 and will be followed by "Like A Wrecking Ball" and "Dark Side", both of which will go top 10. Eric and his team will also release "That's Damn Rock & Roll" to rock radio, which will make a minor dent on the charts.
7) Eric Paslay's "She Don't Love You" will be a top 10 hit. Josh Turner's "Lay Low" will be a sleeper hit, taking more than 40 weeks to peak in the top 5. Kip Moore will return to #1 with "Come And Get It", which will be released in Q1.
8) David Nail will release "Countin' Cars" as the final single from I'm A Fire; it will be another slow-climber but will manage to peak inside the top 20.
9) Alan Jackson will release a new single to radio in the spring. It will make the top 30 but not the top 20. George Strait will also release a new single and an album, with similar results.
10) Gary Allan will stay quiet for most of the year, finally releasing a new single by late summer. It will not have the success that "Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)" did, however :(
11) Sam Hunt will quickly rise up the ranks, becoming the most popular new country radio artist since Florida Georgia Line hit the scene. Sam's Montevallo album will quickly go Gold and then Platinum by the end of the year. The album will produce 2 more top 5 hits, at least one of which will cross over to pop radio and be a huge Platinum hit.
12) Shania Twain will finally release a new single by late summer and it will get her into the top 20. Her shockingly-good album will be a big success come fall 2015. Sugarland, however, will remain on hiatus, with neither Jennifer nor Kristian having much solo success at country radio. "Trailer Hitch" will be Kristian's only single to crack the top 40.
13) Billy Currington will score a big hit with "Don't It", but much like his last couple of singles, it will take a long time to climb, needing more than 35 weeks to hit the top 5. Easton Corbin will sneak into the top 20 with "Baby Be My Love Song", and Mercury will finally release his next album. "Feelin' It" will be the final single from Scotty McCreery's sophomore album; he'll return in the spring with a brand new single, which will be his quickest-climbing single yet, and eventually his first #1.
14) Kacey Musgraves will be quiet for the first part of the year, but will release a new single by the summer. It will be critically-acclaimed and will reach the top 10 at country radio. Her album will come out sometime in September and be lauded just as much or perhaps even more than Same Trailer, Different Park was. The album will be nominated for Best Album and Best Country Album at the 2016 Grammy's.
15) Radio will tragically ignore Chris Stapleton's music, but UMG will decide to release his solo album through their Lost Highway imprint. The album will be one of the most-praised albums of the year, and it'll be released in September, just in time to secure a Best Country Album nomination at the 2016 Grammy's.
16) Brad Paisley will follow up "Perfect Storm" with 2 more top 10 hits from Moonshine In The Trunk. Carrie Underwood will take "Something In The Water" to #1, and then follow it up with "Little Toy Guns", which will also be a #1 for her (and both singles will go Platinum). Carrie will be out of the public eye for much of the first half of the year (during which time she will successfully deliver her baby!), but she'll come back with a brand new single in September, and a full-length studio album will hit stores in late November.
17) Kenny Chesney will score another #1 with "Til It's Gone", but its follow-up, "Wild Child", will be a bigger hit and will go Platinum. "Flora-Bama" will follow after that, serving as the 4th single from The Big Revival.
18) Garth Brooks will make the top 10 with "Mom", but it definitely won't be revered as much as classics like "If Tomorrow Never Comes", "The Dance", "Unanswered Prayers", etc. Third single "All-American Kid" will be the biggest hit from the album, and the closest Garth has come to his 'glory days' since "More Than A Memory". Garth will, however, release another album in November 2015, and it will be better than Man Against Machine. Trisha Yearwood, on the other hand, will not score a top 40 from her own album. A Garth-Trisha duet will be the lead single to Garth's November 2015 album, and it will also be included on the upcoming duets album from them. The duet will be a pretty big hit and a way to get Trisha up the charts as well.
19) After a slow start, Miranda Lambert's "Smokin' And Drinkin'" will become a huge hit, her biggest since "Mama's Broken Heart". It will go #1 on both Mediabase and Billboard, and become a Platinum hit as well.
20) Jake Owen will move on to a new album after "What We Ain't Got" finally makes the top 10. Jake's next single will be another big hit for him. Chris Young will continue to shy away from the traditional music that he's much more suited for; as a result, he'll continue to see subpar performances on the radio charts. He'll manage two top 10's, but neither will be a particularly big hit or leave a very lasting impression.
21) Sara Evans will not reach the top 30 at all in 2015. Sheryl Crow will, however, but only with one single (the lead from her next album).
22) Faith Hill will finally release her next album. The lead single will make the top 30, but none of the other songs will do much else.
23) Cole Swindell will score another #1 hit with "Ain't Worth The Whiskey". He'll then release a lead single and a new album toward the end of the year. Gloriana's "Trouble" will go top 30 but that's the best they'll be able to do in 2015.
24) Blake Shelton will release 2 more big hits (after "Lonely Tonight" goes #1). However, one of the songs will get held to a #2 peak by another artist's bigger hit, thus snapping Blake's #1 streak.
25) Ryan Kinder will be one of the breakout artists of 2015. Warner Bros. will re-release "Kiss Me When I'm Down" to radio in January or February (since that was one of the songs he played on his radio tour earlier this year). KMWID will be a big #1 hit for Ryan.
26) Zac Brown Band will release a new single by February or March -- the single will bring them back to the top 10 but not #1. It will be unlike anything else on country radio, and their album will be a mix of genres. However, thanks to their new partnership with Universal and Big Machine, their overall momentum will once again be on the rise (due to more awareness, not necessarily a string of smash hits).
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27) Breakout Artists on country radio in 2015: Mickey Guyton, Charlie Worsham, Ryan Kinder, A Thousand Horses
28) Artists that will surge in momentum and/or return to the spotlight: Josh Turner, Kip Moore, Sam Hunt, Kacey Musgraves, Jake Owen, Brett Eldredge, Brantley Gilbert, Maddie & Tae, Craig Campbell, Lee Brice
29) Artists who will see a decline (or a continuing decline) in momentum: Lady Antebellum, Jerrod Niemann, The Swon Brothers, Tyler Farr, Chase Rice, Frankie Ballard, Dan + Shay, Jana Kramer, Rascal Flatts, RaeLynn (after "God Made Girls" goes top 10), The Band Perry, Jason Aldean (marginally), Dustin Lynch, Joe Nichols, Toby Keith, Big & Rich
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30) My predictions as to who will get dropped by their labels (or part mutually): Joey Hyde (Capitol), Kelleigh Bannen (EMI), Lauren Alaina (Mercury), Laura Bell Bundy (Big Machine), Kristy Lee Cook (Broken Bow), Jackie Lee (Broken Bow), Lindsay Ell (Stoney Creek), and Josh Thompson (Show Dog-Universal)
...I'll either add to this post at a later date, or perhaps make a new post, because I have some more predictions yet, lol.
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Dec 10, 2014 23:27:06 GMT -5
I LOVE THESE SO MUCHSerious1. Carrie Underwood will see a healthy birth of her baby boy in March or April. She will release her fifth studio album in Q4 to a #1 opening on the Billboard 200 and sales on par/slightly higher than Blown Away's opening of 270k. She will achieve 3 #1s in 2015 -- "Something in the Water" and "Little Toy Guns" being two of them, with the third being the lead single of the fifth album -- and receive another Solo Country Vocal Grammy nomination for "Little Toy Guns". She'll be announced as the 2016 Superbowl Halftime Show performer and will announce a new tour for 2016. 2. Miranda Lambert will tour throughout the year and see 2 more top 5 hits from Platinum, with the fifth single being released towards the end of the year, but not peaking until 2016. She will win her sixth consecutive Female Vocalist of the Year trophy at the ACMs and her first-ever Entertainer of the Year trophy at the show, as well. Her CMA streak will end, but by who is still to be determined. 3. Luke Bryan will release another studio album during Q4 and will see an even bigger opening than Crash My Party's 528k. His lead single for the album will be the fastest-rising #1 of the year across the entire format, and it'll also give him his first-ever Top 10 Billboard Hot 100 entry. 4. Maddie & Tae will shock everyone by achieving 2 more Top 10 hits on Country airplay and showing that they have staying power in the format. They'll shock everyone even more by winning both New Artist of the Year at the CMAs and dethroning Florida Georgia Line in the Duo of the Year category, as well. They'll receive a nomination for both awards at the ACMs in April 2015 and will win New Artist but lose Duo to FLAGA. 5. Carrie Underwood and Miranda Lambert will win Video of the Year at the CMT Music Awards in June 2015 for their "Somethin' Bad" video. Additionally, the CMTs will mark Underwood's first TV performance since the birth of her baby. 6. Blake Shelton will see one of his single releases miss the top two entirely, breaking his incredible #1 streak. His tour will still be a hot ticket. 7. Jason Aldean will get married to Brittany Kerr and have a quieter second half of 2015. 8. Florida Georgia Line will see major push-back from Country radio towards one of their singles and never recover. Their egos will be bruised in the process. 9. Scott Borchetta will discover "American Idol"'s first genuine star since Phillip Phillips and bring some validity back to the show's diminished power to churn out stars. 10. Taylor Swift will record a surprise duet with a Country artist and they'll perform it on the CMAs in November 2015. Not-So-Likely1. Lauren Alaina will have a major comeback smash with the lead single of her second album and be the woman to dethrone Miranda Lambert for the Female Vocalist of the Year trophy at the CMAs in 2015. 2. Kacey Musgraves will release her second album to amazing sales and will achieve a #1 single release and another Top 5 single release from the album. The album will be certified Gold by the end of the year. 3. David Nail will dethrone Luke Bryan as the format's top-selling male album artist when he sees a huge breakthrough and scans a Platinum album. 4. Florida Georgia Line get arrested. (Actually, this one wouldn't surprise me, but I'll go ahead and file it under these 5.) 5. Jason Aldean smiles in public. Scott Borcheta is joining AMERICAN IDOL ???????????????? Carrie is screwed.
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spencer
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Post by spencer on Dec 10, 2014 23:36:22 GMT -5
^^ " Carrie is screwed." How so ????
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Kentucky25
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Post by Kentucky25 on Dec 10, 2014 23:47:55 GMT -5
I'm not very good with charts and predictions so I'll stay more general in that regard.
1. Luke Bryan's new album will have a more traditional leaning to it (still with some pop/rock elements) and the trend that Blake Shelton started of moving back towards traditional country will start to catch on with the big names. Bryan's lead single from the new album will be critically acclaimed and really shock a lot of the format. 2. Miranda Lambert reaches number one on the charts with "Smokin' and Drinkin'" or the follow-up single (Which is hopefully "Another Sunday in the South") 3. Mickey Guyton goes Top 10 with "Better Than You Left Me" 4. Joe Nichols continues his streak of long, successful chart runs with "Hard to Be Cool". His lead single from his new album will move quickly up the charts and he will move more and more into mainstream media success. 5. Garth Brooks' tour will be immensely successful, "Mom" will go Top 5 and the follow up single ("Wrong About You") Top 10. Garth also goes deep into this album cycle, further bucking the current trends and "fighting the machine" 6. Big & Rich eventually do release "Lovin' Lately" as Tim McGraw's momentum from this album starts to slow and it will be a Top 20 hit and their final single from the Gravity era. 7. Jason Aldean will release "Two Night Town" and "Miss That Girl" OR "Don't Change Gone" and they will be #1s for him. 8. George Strait releases his lead single and it makes it's slow climb to the Top 20. 9. Dan + Shay start to gain a lot of momentum and become a small threat to FGL. 10. FGL start to waver in popularity as the mass public starts to grow tired of their similar themed music. 11. Kacey Musgraves and Katy Perry record a duet and Kacey becomes one of the hottest acts in the Country format because of her new-found "cross-over appeal". 12. Craig Campbell returns with his lead single "About TIme" (YouTube it, he's saying it's the new single, sounds like a smash hit to me) and continues to be a successful radio artist despite the odds against him.
Break-Out Stars - Brantley Gilbert, Chris Young, Lee Brice, and Randy Houser. "Break-Out" meaning they become more household names and start to make a rise up the proverbial Country music ladder to be in "B+ or A-" stars to Aldean, Shelton, Bryan and co.
Jake Owen, Dustin Lynch, and Tyler Farr move into the consistent hit producer spots Young, Brice, and Houser have established themselves as.
Not-So-Serious Predictions 1. Jason Aldean will smile more. 2. Female acts become desperate and start to actually sing "Bra-Country" as many have joked and "Bros" become very confused as to how to respond. 3. Garth Brooks and George Strait record a duet to try and get a quick-rising single. 4. Lady Antebellum go to Pop music and have moderate success with "747/Airplanes Part. III (feat. B.o.B.)". 5. Sam Hunt and Chase Rice sing "Who's Gonna Fill Their Shoes?" at the CMA, no acoustic instruments are used, all electronic. 6. Easton Corbin, Gary Allan, Josh Thompson, David Nail, and Toby Keith form the super-group "Country Blues " and still do not receive the chart success they deserve. 7. FGL splits and Tyler Hubbard partners with Ronnie Dunn and Brian Kelley partners with Kix Brooks creating rival duos that schedule tour dates back to back and compete for higher ticket sales.
I may think of more but that's what I have for now.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Dec 11, 2014 2:34:34 GMT -5
Scott Borcheta is joining AMERICAN IDOL ???????????????? Carrie is screwed. Borchetta's involvement as the in-house tutor for the show impacts Carrie in exactly 0 ways.
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Dec 14, 2014 23:47:27 GMT -5
Scott Borcheta is joining AMERICAN IDOL ???????????????? Carrie is screwed. Borchetta's involvement as the in-house tutor for the show impacts Carrie in exactly 0 ways. I thought he became a producer or something. We all know he doesn't like Carrie so if he becomes a producer, he moght prevent Carrie for showing.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Dec 14, 2014 23:49:35 GMT -5
Borchetta's involvement as the in-house tutor for the show impacts Carrie in exactly 0 ways. I thought he became a producer or something. We all know he doesn't like Carrie so if he becomes a producer, he moght prevent Carrie for showing. We don't know that. He's made shady remarks about her in the past, that's for sure. But we have no proof that he dislikes her. He's given her credit where it's due. And Borchetta won't become a producer. The show won't even be on air for much longer anyways. I'm not concerned and Borchetta being the mentor will not stop the higher ups of the show from inviting Carrie back to perform on the stage that gave her the career she has now.
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Post by loveofmusic on Dec 15, 2014 0:51:42 GMT -5
I thought he became a producer or something. We all know he doesn't like Carrie so if he becomes a producer, he moght prevent Carrie for showing. We don't know that. He's made shady remarks about her in the past, that's for sure. But we have no proof that he dislikes her. He's given her credit where it's due. And Borchetta won't become a producer. The show won't even be on air for much longer anyways. I'm not concerned and Borchetta being the mentor will not stop the higher ups of the show from inviting Carrie back to perform on the stage that gave her the career she has now. I agree that Borchetta at least has given Carrie credit when it's due. I agree that Idol won't be on the air much longer. However, Borchetta is not just a mentor for the Idol season. The new deal is he has to sign the winner to his record label & release some music. I can't see him signing a deal with Idol where he's obligated to sign the winner if he's not going to at least try to promote him/her & their music.
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.indulgecountry
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"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 15, 2014 0:57:07 GMT -5
I wonder what Borchetta is going to do if the next winner of Idol isn't a country act. I guess he does have Taylor Swift who is a big pop star, though she started out in the country genre, and aside from her latest turn towards full-blown pop, he pretty much deals with strictly-country acts. I can't imagine someone like Candice or Caleb winning and ending up on one of his labels, lol. OTOH, given this connection, I'd love to see the winner in fact be another country one. His label group has done well with debut singles from Cassadee Pope, Danielle Bradbery, and RaeLynn although the follow-ups to the first two didn't fare well at all, and it remains to be seen how well the follow-up to "God Made Girls" will do. Shame he couldn't have gotten his hands on Kree Harrison from two years ago.
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Post by loveofmusic on Dec 15, 2014 1:06:00 GMT -5
I wonder what Borchetta is going to do if the next winner of Idol isn't a country act. I guess he does have Taylor Swift who is a big pop star, though she started out in the country genre, and aside from her latest turn towards full-blown pop, he pretty much deals with strictly-country acts. I can't imagine someone like Candice or Caleb winning and ending up on one of his labels, lol. OTOH, given this connection, I'd love to see the winner in fact be another country one. His label group has done well with debut singles from Cassadee Pope, Danielle Bradbery, and RaeLynn although the follow-ups to the first two didn't fare well at all, and it remains to be seen how well the follow-up to "God Made Girls" will do. Shame he couldn't have gotten his hands on Kree Harrison from two years ago. According to the following Billboard article, he addressed this issue: Q: Big Machine has traditionally been country-focused, but with Taylor Swift venturing more and more into pop, do you see the label taking on more pop stars and/or doing more country-mainstream crossover in the future? We’ve got a mantra at the label: We either fall in love or we don’t. And because we are Nashville-based and predominately a country label, people obviously think of us in that way, and that’s fine. But I grew up in Southern California. I played in rock bands out here and I’ve been around pop music my whole life. I’ve been around all music my entire life. So I think we have a fair understanding of what a hit artist looks like, regardless of genre. And I’ve got the opportunity, with my relationship with Universal and 19 [Recordings], to put the winner exactly where they need to be, regardless of genre. They are not limited by this relationship. If anything, just the opposite. We can go anywhere we need to go. Let's just say I'm skeptical right now. I think as long as the winner is pop or country that's ok. I'm not sure what he'll do with a winner from other genres especially R&B. www.billboard.com/articles/6405580/scott-borchetta-qa-american-idol-season-14
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.indulgecountry
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"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 15, 2014 1:09:42 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing that! And I agree that as long as they're either pop or (preferably) country, then the winner will have a shot. But if he had got saddled with either of last two winners, their careers would've been just as DOA as they were with the prior Idol label contract.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Dec 15, 2014 16:49:59 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing that! And I agree that as long as they're either pop or (preferably) country, then the winner will have a shot. But if he had got saddled with either of last two winners, their careers would've been just as DOA as they were with the prior Idol label contract. He's going to be way more involved in picking who goes forward. I'd bet even money that it'll be heavily pop and country leaning this year. Any artist who wins will likely be on Dot or Republic since it's a JV promo deal with UMG and 19. Dot was always gonna be a label with more than 'just' country acts.
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