sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Mar 29, 2015 11:41:13 GMT -5
Is there some reason to be concerned about this song's chart trajectory? People on twitter seem to be concerned about the rate it's moving up the charts. I don't think so. Today was the first hiccup in updates (only a gain of .001k in audience). It's still up 3.5 million in audience this week and nearly 400 spins. This after being up 3.7 million the previous week. Right now there are some songs being pushed into ridiculous rotation in the top 5 and artists like Brad, FGL, Easton, and Tim are all around Carrie and even Eric Paslay saw an update of nearly 900k in audience today - lots of competition right now inside the top 22 songs. "Little Toy Guns" has been moving up very fast so far and I wouldn't be too concerned about today's update.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2015 12:19:41 GMT -5
I've never found Carrie's production to be a highlight, but damn I LOVE the drums on LTG so fucking much.
|
|
ILLUSION
5x Platinum Member
Dupe
"casually cruel in the name of being honest"
Joined: October 2012
Posts: 5,944
|
Post by ILLUSION on Mar 31, 2015 12:40:31 GMT -5
I'm surprised this song is only #21. It feels like it has been out forever! It's still doing fine though
|
|
14887fan
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2013
Posts: 11,254
|
Post by 14887fan on Mar 31, 2015 13:15:52 GMT -5
Incredibly pleased with the sales of this song. It's gradually increased throughout its entire run on iTunes, with it currently at #73 all-genre. And this is all without even one performance of it since being announced as a single, and only one live performance of it, ever, prior to that.
|
|
pnobelysk
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2009
Posts: 10,109
|
Post by pnobelysk on Apr 2, 2015 9:03:01 GMT -5
New peak of 90 on the hot 100 this week
|
|
Ragin
6x Platinum Member
Everybody Wants a Piece of the Action!!!
Joined: September 2003
Posts: 6,487
|
Post by Ragin on Apr 6, 2015 7:24:56 GMT -5
I don't think I chimed in yet that I love the song. I could even see some crossover success a ways down the road if it hits #1 here.
|
|
carrieidol1
Diamond Member
Joined: August 2007
Posts: 12,571
|
Post by carrieidol1 on Apr 6, 2015 9:11:44 GMT -5
Is there some reason to be concerned about this song's chart trajectory? People on twitter seem to be concerned about the rate it's moving up the charts. As far as I know, it has risen surprisingly fast thus far considering it has had no promotion at all... I haven't looked into its daily updates much, but as soon as updates aren't continuously staggering in AIs, fans start to worry, including myself. ...goes to check its past few updates...
|
|
Ten Pound Hammer
9x Platinum Member
Banned
I watched it all on my radio
Joined: August 2006
Posts: 9,595
|
Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Apr 6, 2015 9:22:13 GMT -5
I'm surprised this song is only #21. It feels like it has been out forever! It's still doing fine though And to me it feels like it still hasn't even gone for adds, because I have only heard it about four times so far, of which two were on CT40 and the other two were on whatever the heck syndicated show WCEN Saginaw plays late at night.
|
|
matty005
3x Platinum Member
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 3,410
|
Post by matty005 on Apr 6, 2015 9:23:59 GMT -5
Is there some reason to be concerned about this song's chart trajectory? People on twitter seem to be concerned about the rate it's moving up the charts. As far as I know, it has risen surprisingly fast thus far considering it has had no promotion at all... I haven't looked into its daily updates much, but as soon as updates aren't continuously staggering in AIs, fans start to worry, including myself. ...goes to check its past few updates... Yeah, this is doing great on the charts. Though I keep reading on here "despite no promo." Don't most songs on the charts have very little promo other than being serviced to radio? Other than the big stars being on late night or day time talk shows or shows like The Voice or Idol, I feel like almost every song right now on the chart has, "no promo." I mean, how many songs in the top 40 at country have any more promo than what Carrie has?
|
|
carrieidol1
Diamond Member
Joined: August 2007
Posts: 12,571
|
Post by carrieidol1 on Apr 6, 2015 9:38:58 GMT -5
As far as I know, it has risen surprisingly fast thus far considering it has had no promotion at all... I haven't looked into its daily updates much, but as soon as updates aren't continuously staggering in AIs, fans start to worry, including myself. ...goes to check its past few updates... Yeah, this is doing great on the charts. Though I keep reading on here "despite no promo." Don't most songs on the charts have very little promo other than being serviced to radio? Other than the big stars being on late night or day time talk shows or shows like The Voice or Idol, I feel like almost every song right now on the chart has, "no promo." I mean, how many songs in the top 40 at country have any more promo than what Carrie has? Good point, perhaps I should have made the statement relative to Carrie's usual promo.
|
|
pnobelysk
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2009
Posts: 10,109
|
Post by pnobelysk on Apr 9, 2015 12:02:53 GMT -5
New peak of 86 on the hot 100 this week
|
|
bornfearless2000
4x Platinum Member
SOMETHING IN THE WATER
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 4,011
|
Post by bornfearless2000 on Apr 14, 2015 0:59:26 GMT -5
New peak of 86 on the hot 100 this week Slow but sure to the top
|
|
pnobelysk
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2009
Posts: 10,109
|
Post by pnobelysk on Apr 16, 2015 11:34:56 GMT -5
New peak of 77 on the hot 100 this week
|
|
jptexas
3x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2007
Posts: 3,700
|
Post by jptexas on Apr 23, 2015 22:16:58 GMT -5
LTG comes in at #17 on the iTunes country chart and # 13 on country mediabase. One live performance of this song and I'm sure it'll hit top 10 on iTunes.
|
|
Rumors
3x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2003
Posts: 3,414
|
Post by Rumors on Apr 26, 2015 11:26:58 GMT -5
This is my least favorite single by Carrie. I don't care for this song at all.
|
|
bornfearless2000
4x Platinum Member
SOMETHING IN THE WATER
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 4,011
|
Post by bornfearless2000 on Apr 27, 2015 1:40:42 GMT -5
This is one of my fav songs from Carrie. I care for this song so much.
|
|
GothMoth
New Member
Dupe
Joined: April 2015
Posts: 55
|
Post by GothMoth on Apr 27, 2015 3:51:21 GMT -5
I hope this song could hit the Top 40 of Hot 100
|
|
Marv
6x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2004
Posts: 6,308
|
Post by Marv on Apr 27, 2015 19:05:53 GMT -5
This chart run is fine as most of the veteran chart watchers on this board realize that a 10-12 week sprint to #1 isn't likely to happen unless you're Jason, Blake, FGL or Luke even if your song is mediocre, atrocious or somewhere in between, although some exceptional tunes by other format superstars have managed to do so during the past 3+ years, most recently 'Homegrown'.
|
|
Zazie
5x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2003
Posts: 5,144
|
Post by Zazie on Apr 28, 2015 9:48:42 GMT -5
This song isn't going up at a fantastic rate, but since I decided (back on page 6 of this thread) to track its gains vs. other radio stars of the male persuasion it has done just fine. LTG has gained a couple of million Billboard impressions on McGraw and Chesney over the 6 weeks since I started paying attention. And I'm not paying especially close attention because it seems like a non-issue to me -- Carrie's strong and popular, even in a world where women singers seemingly start with 3 strikes against them.
She hasn't gained as much as Florida Georgia Line, but then again that one sailed past Kenny and Tim as well. She won't be able to gain as much as Blake does. But she's doing fine, although in her region of the chart almost everybody has been crawling along, so her progress has been less impressive on a per-week basis.
|
|
Dustin J.
3x Platinum Member
90's country guru
Joined: January 2005
Posts: 3,087
|
Post by Dustin J. on Apr 28, 2015 13:34:33 GMT -5
I am, admittedly, pretty critical of Carrie's music and haven't cared for much of her stuff recently. This, however, is one of my favorite songs she's ever released...top three for sure on my personal Carrie Underwood list. :)
|
|
rbundy1987
2x Platinum Member
Joined: February 2011
Posts: 2,614
|
Post by rbundy1987 on Apr 30, 2015 8:26:29 GMT -5
Probably a little too early to worry yet but I am fearing the time is coming and that is I am starting to think Blake Shelton's "Sangria" could be a threat to Carrie down the road later in the top ten. This song is coming down everybody's throats and just passed Little Big Town's "Girl Crush" this morning and has still a strong bullet of +773 from a week ago and Blake is still gaining nearly between 50 and 100 spins a day and almost a mil each day in audience which he did today. All I have to say is Blake is bound to slow down some but still I am viewing him as a threat to Carrie down the road. Hope I am wrong on this one but he is white hot like Luke Bryan is who's "Games" which is still gaining unsolicited airplay and in the top 25 on Billboard already and just now #29 on Mediabase. Country radio sure loves it's Country men which is nothing new :)
Since Sunday, Blake has gained nearly 400 spins with nearly a 3.5 mil jump in audience and is now #19 now on Mediabase with Carrie at #11 still and has gained about 145 spins and 1.3 mil in audience which is NOT BAD at all, at least she is still gaining but I am starting to think "Sangria" could be a problem down the road. We'll see!!!
|
|
onebuffalo
Diamond Member
#LiteralLegender
I am One Buffalo.
Joined: June 2009
Posts: 26,588
|
Post by onebuffalo on Apr 30, 2015 9:04:18 GMT -5
Probably a little too early to worry yet but I am fearing the time is coming and that is I am starting to think Blake Shelton's "Sangria" could be a threat to Carrie down the road later in the top ten. This song is coming down everybody's throats and just passed Little Big Town's "Girl Crush" this morning and has still a strong bullet of +773 from a week ago and Blake is still gaining nearly between 50 and 100 spins a day and almost a mil each day in audience which he did today. All I have to say is Blake is bound to slow down some but still I am viewing him as a threat to Carrie down the road. Hope I am wrong on this one but he is white hot like Luke Bryan is who's "Games" which is still gaining unsolicited airplay and in the top 25 on Billboard already and just now #29 on Mediabase. Country radio sure loves it's Country men which is nothing new :) Since Sunday, Blake has gained nearly 400 spins with nearly a 3.5 mil jump in audience and is now #19 now on Mediabase with Carrie at #11 still and has gained about 145 spins and 1.3 mil in audience which is NOT BAD at all, at least she is still gaining but I am starting to think "Sangria" could be a problem down the road. We'll see!!! I hope it's not a repeat of 2013 when Sure Be Cool If You Did held off Two Black Cadillacs for the top spot.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2015 11:28:30 GMT -5
Probably a little too early to worry yet but I am fearing the time is coming and that is I am starting to think Blake Shelton's "Sangria" could be a threat to Carrie down the road later in the top ten. This song is coming down everybody's throats and just passed Little Big Town's "Girl Crush" this morning and has still a strong bullet of +773 from a week ago and Blake is still gaining nearly between 50 and 100 spins a day and almost a mil each day in audience which he did today. All I have to say is Blake is bound to slow down some but still I am viewing him as a threat to Carrie down the road. Hope I am wrong on this one but he is white hot like Luke Bryan is who's "Games" which is still gaining unsolicited airplay and in the top 25 on Billboard already and just now #29 on Mediabase. Country radio sure loves it's Country men which is nothing new :) Since Sunday, Blake has gained nearly 400 spins with nearly a 3.5 mil jump in audience and is now #19 now on Mediabase with Carrie at #11 still and has gained about 145 spins and 1.3 mil in audience which is NOT BAD at all, at least she is still gaining but I am starting to think "Sangria" could be a problem down the road. We'll see!!! Blake's not a threat to Carrie. "Sangria" is roughly 1100 spins and 8 million audience away from Carrie on Mediabase, and he's still gaining several million and several hundred spins on Carrie a week, so I think Blake will go up way ahead of Carrie. Even if either Carrie speeds up or Blake slows down enough for "Sangria" to go up right at about the same time as "Little Toy Guns," it's unlikely Blake will block anyone. Warner Music Nashville literally never gets competitive with any label other than Broken Bow (most likely due to Broken Bow's overly competitive pushes to make average-sized hits huge multi-week airplay #1s). They've pulled insanely fast-climbing hits after just one week at #1 ("Boys 'Round Here," "My Eyes," "Ain't Worth the Whiskey" being a few recent examples) and Sony has consistently been a beneficiary of Warner's lack of aggression. If Carrie does end up getting "blocked" by Blake's song, it'll be because this starts struggling and can't quite put up the airplay numbers of a solid #1. I also don't think "Sangria" doing well has anything to do with radio preferring males over females. I still don't see it on the Mediabase National Callout chart yet, but Blake's song is so far shaping up to be a huge hit, easily the biggest from this Blake Shelton era and possibly about as big as "Sure Be Cool If You Did" and "Boys 'Round Here" from Blake's last album. It's currently #11 on the iTunes all-genre chart and #2 on the iTunes country chart behind "Girl Crush." That's insanely high and I'm sure if Carrie had a song selling that well on iTunes she'd be doing as great on the charts as Blake is now. Radio still supports "Little Toy Guns" and I'm sure it'll be a strong contender for #1.
|
|
Zazie
5x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2003
Posts: 5,144
|
Post by Zazie on Apr 30, 2015 19:04:33 GMT -5
^ Excellent post. If the only problem Carrie had to face was Blake's song, then she'd have no problems, because he's bound to go up first. Unless of course LTG starts gaining at a much faster rate, but in that case, Blake will slow down and she'll have no problems either.
Seems to me that she does have approximately no problems. She's about 7 weeks away from hitting #1, if I believe my own forecast. She needs about 19 million more audience impressions at Billboard, assuming she needs 42 million to rule the chart; and she might need to speed up a little to get there, but I think that's exactly what she'll do. I expect her to jump to #11 on next week's BB even if both Sam Hunt and ZBB stay on the chart instead of going recurrent. She will make the top 10 if ZBB finds a way to leave, and in any case she should be at #8 the next week because of the freefalling trio of ZBB, Hunt, and Brice.
I am thinking these songs hit #1 on BB --
1. Dierks stays there this coming week. 2. Urban and Church 3. Farr 4. Currington 5. FlaGa 6. FlaGa week 2 -- maybe Blake goes for 2 weeks (for a change) and deprives FlaGa of their second week 7. Shelton (Kenny gives way? his song's not all that strong -- I would normally assign a song as strong as Sangria a second week on top, but Blake's recent chart history won't let me) 8. Underwood
So that would have her arriving a week or two late, but still arriving. And she could go a week or two faster if she picks up the weekly gains, as she has been known to do. Even in these days of "you take your turn, then let me take mine" charts, it is still possible for some song or other to peak short of #1. (I left Smoke off the list but we'll see if even a newbie can be denied.) It could also be that it takes her an extra week or two to get to the top. She looks really solid to me at this point.
|
|
rbundy1987
2x Platinum Member
Joined: February 2011
Posts: 2,614
|
Post by rbundy1987 on Apr 30, 2015 19:13:15 GMT -5
Probably a little too early to worry yet but I am fearing the time is coming and that is I am starting to think Blake Shelton's "Sangria" could be a threat to Carrie down the road later in the top ten. This song is coming down everybody's throats and just passed Little Big Town's "Girl Crush" this morning and has still a strong bullet of +773 from a week ago and Blake is still gaining nearly between 50 and 100 spins a day and almost a mil each day in audience which he did today. All I have to say is Blake is bound to slow down some but still I am viewing him as a threat to Carrie down the road. Hope I am wrong on this one but he is white hot like Luke Bryan is who's "Games" which is still gaining unsolicited airplay and in the top 25 on Billboard already and just now #29 on Mediabase. Country radio sure loves it's Country men which is nothing new :) Since Sunday, Blake has gained nearly 400 spins with nearly a 3.5 mil jump in audience and is now #19 now on Mediabase with Carrie at #11 still and has gained about 145 spins and 1.3 mil in audience which is NOT BAD at all, at least she is still gaining but I am starting to think "Sangria" could be a problem down the road. We'll see!!! Blake's not a threat to Carrie. "Sangria" is roughly 1100 spins and 8 million audience away from Carrie on Mediabase, and he's still gaining several million and several hundred spins on Carrie a week, so I think Blake will go up way ahead of Carrie. Even if either Carrie speeds up or Blake slows down enough for "Sangria" to go up right at about the same time as "Little Toy Guns," it's unlikely Blake will block anyone. Warner Music Nashville literally never gets competitive with any label other than Broken Bow (most likely due to Broken Bow's overly competitive pushes to make average-sized hits huge multi-week airplay #1s). They've pulled insanely fast-climbing hits after just one week at #1 ("Boys 'Round Here," "My Eyes," "Ain't Worth the Whiskey" being a few recent examples) and Sony has consistently been a beneficiary of Warner's lack of aggression. If Carrie does end up getting "blocked" by Blake's song, it'll be because this starts struggling and can't quite put up the airplay numbers of a solid #1. I also don't think "Sangria" doing well has anything to do with radio preferring males over females. I still don't see it on the Mediabase National Callout chart yet, but Blake's song is so far shaping up to be a huge hit, easily the biggest from this Blake Shelton era and possibly about as big as "Sure Be Cool If You Did" and "Boys 'Round Here" from Blake's last album. It's currently #11 on the iTunes all-genre chart and #2 on the iTunes country chart behind "Girl Crush." That's insanely high and I'm sure if Carrie had a song selling that well on iTunes she'd be doing as great on the charts as Blake is now. Radio still supports "Little Toy Guns" and I'm sure it'll be a strong contender for #1. I still think he is a threat to Carrie, as he blocked her back in 2013 with "Sure Be Cool If You Did" and "Two Black Cadillacs" was way ahead but slowed down dramatically as it got close to top ten which is to be expected, so no surprise and his song was a lead single at the time but Carrie's was a third single which was going up at a reasonable pace but Blake was killing it with 1 mil audience gains every other day or even over 100 spins a day back 2 years ago. I realize "Two Black Cadillacs" still made #1 for one day that Sunday to be declared a #1 on Mediabase but she was blocked by Blake on Billboard. I know and realize "Sangria" is not a lead single but Blake is like Luke right now which both guys are both white hot at radio right now even though Luke's song is not really a single but it is getting unsolicited airplay and therefore radio loves Luke and know they are excited about his next lead single. Anyways back to Blake and Carrie, I still think Blake is going to let Carrie get into the top ten or perhaps top five before he catches her, but if he does catch her, let him catch her early on so he can get to #1 first and get his run over with and then let Carrie take over. I know this is way out in advance but I hope that Carrie is able to finally clinch a #1 airplay hit not only with Mediabase this time but Billboard as no solo female has topped the airplay chart for Billboard since October 2012 when "Blown Away" topped it for 2 weeks. Blake will slow down that's a guarantee but will it be when he approaches top ten, lot of questions to be answered.
|
|
ant
Platinum Member
Banned
Joined: September 2013
Posts: 1,360
|
Post by ant on May 1, 2015 12:21:23 GMT -5
I saw on Twitter that this took a hit today. Is this a bad sign?
|
|
onebuffalo
Diamond Member
#LiteralLegender
I am One Buffalo.
Joined: June 2009
Posts: 26,588
|
Post by onebuffalo on May 1, 2015 12:23:19 GMT -5
I saw on Twitter that this took a hit today. Is this a bad sign? From the rolling chart: 13 12 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Little Toy Guns 4505 4270 235 35.238
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on May 1, 2015 12:29:01 GMT -5
I saw on Twitter that this took a hit today. Is this a bad sign? It lost 6 spins and gained 235k in total audience. "Little Toy Guns" is up 141 spins and nearly 1.6 million in audience since Sunday. So no, there's nothing to be panicked over.
|
|
jptexas
3x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2007
Posts: 3,700
|
Post by jptexas on May 6, 2015 10:27:06 GMT -5
And LTG jumps into the top 10 on mediabase. Carrie hasn't performed it on tv yet, sales should pick up if she does. CMT awards maybe.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 7, 2015 7:28:33 GMT -5
In its 7th week on the Hot 100, it rises 4 spots to a new peak of #70.
|
|