sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 13, 2015 21:51:37 GMT -5
Top 40 on MB a week from yesterday, at the very least. Maybe. There's only going to be 1 recurrent on MB next Sunday (Darius), and Gary has to worry about Thomas' red hot song leaping him, along with threatening Lady A (though they had a pretty nasty update today). Plus the chance that Mo, Dan + Shay or Kacey has a better week, which is only a possibility. Parmalee actually edged Gary out by 8 spins and .078k in audience today, as they sit one spot ahead currently. Plenty of time for Gary to rally with some better updates though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2015 0:02:41 GMT -5
I think the Billboard bullet rule is based on audience gains instead of spins. Some songs that show a loss in audience for the week maintain a bullet if the percent of audience lost over the past week is less than the percent of time the stations on the panel aren't playing music, according to the description below the chart on the BDS website. So, for example, "Hangover Tonight" lost 246k in Billboard audience over the past week, which is about 7% of the audience it had the previous week, which means that the total amount of minutes the stations on the Billboard panel aren't playing music is probably below 7% of the time since the percentage of audience this lost was too great for it to maintain a bullet.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Apr 14, 2015 13:50:35 GMT -5
I think the Billboard bullet rule is based on audience gains instead of spins. Some songs that show a loss in audience for the week maintain a bullet if the percent of audience lost over the past week is less than the percent of time the stations on the panel aren't playing music, according to the description below the chart on the BDS website. So, for example, "Hangover Tonight" lost 246k in Billboard audience over the past week, which is about 7% of the audience it had the previous week, which means that the total amount of minutes the stations on the Billboard panel aren't playing music is probably below 7% of the time since the percentage of audience this lost was too great for it to maintain a bullet. I've got it figured out, and you helped. Thanks. I don't think you cited the right rule, but you forced me to re-think the situation. Miranda Lambert kept her bullet despite losing audience and spins, probably for the reason you write about. But, in another part of their unnecessarily complicated chart rules, BB has been keeping songs that decline in audience if they happen to gain spins, and it isn't a new phenomenon. They've been doing it for years. But I forgot that they only extend that "helping hand" to a song that loses less than 3% of its previous week's audience. And Gary lost a lot more than 3%. Plus I've got a headache. But as long as Gary rebullets next week, and I don't run out of ibuprofen, it's all going to be fine.
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renfield75
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Post by renfield75 on Apr 15, 2015 11:18:28 GMT -5
Lost its bullet this week and continues to lose audience but it was one of the most added songs this week, with 22 new stations. It's still not looking great but hopefully it can turn around!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2015 15:19:29 GMT -5
Lost its bullet this week and continues to lose audience but it was one of the most added songs this week, with 22 new stations. It's still not looking great but hopefully it can turn around! Gary had a decent update today, up 13 spins and 71k in audience. His 7-day spincrease on Mediabase is now 94. I think more and more spins from those new stations (the 22 adds) will start to kick in today and tomorrow and leading into next week as well. Obviously this one is in for a slow climb (if it ever really gets going at all), but at least it's looking a little better now than it did at this time last week.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Apr 15, 2015 22:49:15 GMT -5
Lost its bullet this week and continues to lose audience but it was one of the most added songs this week, with 22 new stations. It's still not looking great but hopefully it can turn around! Gary had a decent update today, up 13 spins and 71k in audience. His 7-day spincrease on Mediabase is now 94. I think more and more spins from those new stations (the 22 adds) will start to kick in today and tomorrow and leading into next week as well. Obviously this one is in for a slow climb (if it ever really gets going at all), but at least it's looking a little better now than it did at this time last week. The daily updates at MB are more confusing than helpful a good percentage of the time. Not that I'm unhappy they are available, and free. But you need a PhD in chartology before you can make them make sense, at least you do if you're trying to translate MB numbers to the BB chart. So Reba has huge audience gains two days in a row (accompanied with a surprisingly big spins loss), and those gains mean nothing (to Billboard-watchers) because the audience increase is in large part a function of Westwood 1 satellite airplay, and Westwood 1 is not on the BB panel. Without that big satellite gain on MB, Reba might be dropping below Gary by the weekend, but with the satellite spins in the picture I don't see how that can happen. (I have nothing against Reba but I'm hoping Gary can reach the BB top 40.) But Gary's new airplay is still just theoretical, and until we start seeing 250k a day gains the new stations added will not be paying off. I expected to see more gains by Wednesday than are yet to be found, and I was thinking that by Friday, Gary's numbers would be up a lot. Maybe. Does anybody know how much ground T Rhett has lost on MB because of the disappearance of his big first-week totals? He's out of the top 50 but presumably will re-enter soon -- but is it right to say that he can't pass Gary this coming weekend? Seems safe to me to say that. One more good reason to think Gary can crack the top 50 next week.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 15, 2015 23:23:05 GMT -5
Gary had a decent update today, up 13 spins and 71k in audience. His 7-day spincrease on Mediabase is now 94. I think more and more spins from those new stations (the 22 adds) will start to kick in today and tomorrow and leading into next week as well. Obviously this one is in for a slow climb (if it ever really gets going at all), but at least it's looking a little better now than it did at this time last week. Does anybody know how much ground T Rhett has lost on MB because of the disappearance of his big first-week totals? He's out of the top 50 but presumably will re-enter soon -- but is it right to say that he can't pass Gary this coming weekend? Seems safe to me to say that. One more good reason to think Gary can crack the top 50 next week. Thomas will likely be only out of Gary's hair for one week, but don't forget about Dan + Shay. "Nothin' Like You" has gained about 1.0 in audience since Sunday and 28 spins, while Gary has gained 31 spins and 22k in audience. Now Gary's numbers should see a better boost by tomorrow or by Friday at the latest, but how much more will Dan + Shay gain come Sunday's update? My calculations put "Nothin' Like You" dangerously close to "Hangover Tonight" as of today in terms of points and it could be a close finish for 40th place by Sunday. The point totals were so ridiculously close this past week on MB. Just 185 total points separated song #41 (Gary) from song #45 (Dan + Shay). What I'm saying is what song gets hotter the final two or three days before Sunday's update? - that might be the 40th place holder. So far both Mo and Kacey haven't had the kindness of weeks as both have lost some audience (-148k for Mo and -258k for Kacey), so they aren't as big a threat, but again, that's just a couple days sample and the chart is so clogged right now - any subtle loss or gain can seemingly go a long way.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Apr 16, 2015 18:27:28 GMT -5
Good call on Dan + Shay. Every time Gary gets a good break -- the struggles of Lady Ant, the temporary drop by Rhett -- somebody else rises up to deny Gary. But the truth is that Gary's got to do his share of the work here, and get enough spins and audience to move up. He has to deserve it and can't just hope that everybody else falls apart.
I'd really like to see some 200k or 250k gains. Without that, top 40 isn't going to happen.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 17, 2015 15:45:08 GMT -5
Well right now it looks like Westwood One will be blocking Gary from the countdown shows next weekend as they've single-handedly helped Dan + Shay's "Nothin' Like You" gain 2.0 million in audience this week. Over the past 7 days, 1.9 out of "Nothin' Like You's" audience gains are from that station, and it looks as if Gary will need to wait a little longer for a top 40 placement.
"Hangover Tonight' has gained just 30 spins and 116k in audience since Sunday, so it looks as if Gary's fallen at least 100 total points behind Dan + Shay as of Friday.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Apr 23, 2015 21:30:59 GMT -5
Any ideas on Gary's chances for the MB top 40 next week? I believe that Chris Young leaves, and Josh Turner can fall below Gary by Sunday. That means he has to hold #42 until Sunday, and he's putting up small but not awful numbers every day. Has to stay ahead of Mo Pitkin, who is presumably pretty close now, plus radio favorites Rhett and Eldredge, plus Eli Young Band. Don't see who else he can pass, unless somebody else is going recurrent. Lady A could hit another slump?
But you're the one who knows MB. That's why I hope you have some ideas.
EDITED to say I didn't know ZBB was arriving this fast. And EYB moved right on by as well, so it's not going to happen, and there's only about 1 more week after the one we're finishing now where I could see him have a chance. There are a few songs going recurrent a week from Sunday, but I don't think it's likely to help if, as we see today, Gary can't gain on his own. Other songs leaving will not be enough.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 23, 2015 21:55:08 GMT -5
Any ideas on Gary's chances for the MB top 40 next week? I believe that Chris Young leaves, and Josh Turner can fall below Gary by Sunday. That means he has to hold #42 until Sunday, and he's putting up small but not awful numbers every day. Has to stay ahead of Mo Pitkin, who is presumably pretty close now, plus radio favorites Rhett and Eldredge, plus Eli Young Band. Don't see who else he can pass, unless somebody else is going recurrent. Lady A could hit another slump? But you're the one who knows MB. That's why I hope you have some ideas. Chris and Joe will be going recurrent on Sunday evening. Or should I say Joe should be going recurrent. "Hard To Be Cool" had plenty of lost audience, spins and points this past week, and it had a loss of 88 points and 23 spins (increase of 190k in audience) on the April 13th issued chart. If both go recurrent then Gary would sit at #40, if the chart ended today. Then you of course have Josh. I think it might be pretty close if Gary drags the last couple days of this chart week, but I think Gary should pass him by Sunday. As for the songs surrounding Gary, Lady A has gained 80 spins and 280k in audience this week, so right now Gary won't be passing them. Then there's Mo who has gained 46 spins and 160k in audience, which are pretty similar to Gary's numbers (+17 spins and +204k in audience). Kacey's had a pretty tough week so she'll be no threat and that leaves EYB who have gained 62 spins and 386k in audience. I actually think EYB is fairly close to passing Mo, which means they aren't too far behind Gary, so that's a song to keep an eye on. You still have Brothers Osborne coming up fast but I think Gary's okay for another week there. It really all depends on three things. Does Joe go recurrent (really, does MB follow their rules as Joe should go bye bye). Does Josh fall below, and right now he should since he's losing a ton of spins and audience on a daily basis; and how does Mo and EYB perform from now til Sunday? If Gary keeps the updates he had today up (+14 spins and 75k in audience) he should be top 40 by week's end. If both Joe and Josh get out of the way, Gary I'm sure will be top 40 this week. We'll see how the songs just behind him do though.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2015 22:23:11 GMT -5
I don't see why Joe Nichols' song wouldn't go off. It hasn't had a bullet on the past two Mediabase charts and obviously won't have a bullet this week. Mediabase never breaks their rules intentionally. Sometimes there's some confusion around the holidays since the bullets are all messed up, but I don't agree with the idea that these charts are cavalier about following their rules. Sometimes the Sunday night Mediabase chart on All Access shows a song that should have gone off that was mistakenly left on, but I don't remember when a published chart released on Monday night violated recurrent rules, so I'm sure "Hard to Be Cool" won't be on the next Mediabase chart.
As for Gary, he'll benefit from two songs going recurrent this week ("Hard to Be Cool" and "Lonely Eyes") and three next week ("Lay Low," "Little Red Wagon," and "Homegrown"), but "Turn It On" and the Pitney song are hot on his trail and ZBB's new single "Lovin' You Easy" could end up debuting in the top 40 on Mediabase this week since the song was played every hour on iHeartMedia stations today. That would mean Gary needs to pass "Lay Low" in order to make the top 40 on this weekend's Mediabase chart (which I expect to happen), and next weekend it'll be a toss-up whether two songs going recurrent from above is enough to keep "Hangover Tonight" in the top 40.
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Kentucky25
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Post by Kentucky25 on Apr 23, 2015 22:29:08 GMT -5
I would like for this song to do well because I like Gary, but it is a station changer for me (the few times I do listen to radio), it just doesn't work for me, though I'm all for it having a good enough chart run to get us an album out. Then we can move on to something else from him.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 23, 2015 23:20:50 GMT -5
I don't see why Joe Nichols' song wouldn't go off. It hasn't had a bullet on the past two Mediabase charts and obviously won't have a bullet this week. Mediabase never breaks their rules intentionally. Sometimes there's some confusion around the holidays since the bullets are all messed up, but I don't agree with the idea that these charts are cavalier about following their rules. Sometimes the Sunday night Mediabase chart on All Access shows a song that should have gone off that was mistakenly left on, but I don't remember when a published chart released on Monday night violated recurrent rules, so I'm sure "Hard to Be Cool" won't be on the next Mediabase chart. I've been following the MB charts for about 10 years and while I agree they never break their rules intentionally, there have been a handful of times they've sent a song recurrent or kept it on when they shouldn't have. Granted, about 75% of those are during the Christmas break, so that has something to do with it. I'm sorry but "Shotgun Rider" being sent recurrent was a goof. There's no logical reason (and believe me I've searched high and low for a comparable reason) that should have happened - the start of the year or not. I'm sure "Hard To Be Cool" will go recurrent but you never say never. I also don't think Gary's song will be saved by some countdown spins but it would help. I actually think he'll be knocked out next week if he does indeed break the top 40 this week. EYB, ZBB, Thomas and Brett will all pass him sooner rather than later for good, and this chart run has been pretty painful to watch if you're rooting for it.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Apr 25, 2015 20:21:38 GMT -5
Unfortunately I think this one is coming to the end of the road. It won't be top 40 tomorrow, especially now that the ZBB are here, and I'm not sure how much longer it can tread water for. Plus, I would expect the EYB to re-pass him soon, possibly even tomorrow. Then, you have Thomas Rhett coming, along with Cole Swindell in a little bit.
This isn't my absolute favourite Gary song, but it's hard to watch a radio friendly lead single struggle like this one is.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 25, 2015 21:34:00 GMT -5
Unfortunately I think this one is coming to the end of the road. It won't be top 40 tomorrow, especially now that the ZBB are here, and I'm not sure how much longer it can tread water for. Plus, I would expect the EYB to re-pass him soon, possibly even tomorrow. Then, you have Thomas Rhett coming, along with Cole Swindell in a little bit. This isn't my absolute favourite Gary song, but it's hard to watch a radio friendly lead single struggle like this one is. I give Gary about a 10% chance to be top 40 on MB tomorrow. Brothers Osborne passed him today and that would most likely mean that "Hangover Tonight" lands at either #41 or #42, depending on what happens with EYB tomorrow. The only chance I see is if Lady A see's a bad update tomorrow. It's really been unfortunate, the lack of luck this song has had not being able to crack the top 40 but I agree, this single's not doing too much anyway - which is disappointing, but not entirely surprising.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 3, 2015 13:49:26 GMT -5
I was actually listening to WYRK this afternoon and the deejay recited a quote from Gary about "Hangover Tonight", his album, and the state of country radio (after they played "Hangover Tonight"). During it he stated that he's disappointed in the sound changes on country radio lately and that he'll do his best to swing the pendulum the other way. He also said he won't change his style because he believes in his integrity.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on May 3, 2015 13:56:40 GMT -5
I was actually listening to WYRK this afternoon and the deejay recited a quote from Gary about "Hangover Tonight", his album, and the state of country radio (after they played "Hangover Tonight"). During it he stated that he's disappointed in the sound changes on country radio lately and that he'll do his best to swing the pendulum the other way. He also said he won't change his style because he believes in his integrity. I want Gary Allan to have a few more hits throughout the rest of this decade. I want him to have another #1 so I can add his name to the list of those artists with the most #1s. I don't want his career to basically end in 2013 with Every Storm Runs Out Of Rain (#1) and Pieces (#18).
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 3, 2015 14:11:02 GMT -5
I was actually listening to WYRK this afternoon and the deejay recited a quote from Gary about "Hangover Tonight", his album, and the state of country radio (after they played "Hangover Tonight"). During it he stated that he's disappointed in the sound changes on country radio lately and that he'll do his best to swing the pendulum the other way. He also said he won't change his style because he believes in his integrity. I want Gary Allan to have a few more hits throughout the rest of this decade. I want him to have another #1 so I can add his name to the list of those artists with the most #1s. I don't want his career to basically end in 2013 with Every Storm Runs Out Of Rain (#1) and Pieces (#18). It ain't gonna happen with "Hangover Tonight." This song has gained just 64 spins and has lost 10k in total audience the past five weeks on MB. It's basically not doing much of anything. Gary's song is on 106 monitored stations, but the problem is that none of them have this in heavy rotation, and only a few have it in medium rotation. The highest spin total this past week was KKBQ in Houston (26) and just five other stations have it over 20 spins for the week. It's absolutely killing this song's chances at going anywhere right now. I hate to say it but this stagnant chart run is reminiscent to most of Toby's chart runs after their hourly debuts, only Gary's is worse since he never got an hourly debut. I think that this one will go no higher. The absolute most I see it doing is simply cracking the MB top 40 at some point.
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on May 3, 2015 14:38:59 GMT -5
So why is this song bombing so thoroughly? Just not what radio wants? I didn't think Every Storm was radio-friendly yet it zoomed to #1 by his standards.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 3, 2015 14:50:35 GMT -5
So why is this song bombing so thoroughly? Just not what radio wants? I didn't think Every Storm was radio-friendly yet it zoomed to #1 by his standards. The timing wasn't great. March to now has been pretty brutal on numerous songs on the charts. When the charts are this competitive there's always some casualties. I also feel Gary's age is contributing here. He's not super old (47), but much like Toby and Alan, I think country radio is drifting further and further away from having him be a mainstay on radio. I would like to see how another single or two performs to make an assertion like that be more definitive though. "Hangover Tonight" is not selling good either...at all really. It's currently not even in the top 1500 of the all-genre chart. Having your light rotation on most stations doesn't help that cause either.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2015 14:59:53 GMT -5
Gary Allan was way past his days of making hit singles even before Set You Free. "Every Storm" was an outlier in that it had shockingly huge digital sales (Gary's only Platinum single) so radio just couldn't pass it up, but I got the impression that single was just sort of a one-time fluke that shocked everyone and I'd never have expected Gary to maintain his momentum. His very next single "Pieces" didn't sell well at all and struggled at radio, and now Gary's right back to where he was before "Every Storm." I can't say I'm surprised to see Gary struggling and although I've generally liked his music in the past I don't understand how Gary can expect to keep criticizing radio and still get them to help him sell records.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2015 19:51:10 GMT -5
So why is this song bombing so thoroughly? Just not what radio wants? I didn't think Every Storm was radio-friendly yet it zoomed to #1 by his standards. Overcrowded release schedule, tons of other new artists have broken through (which means that there's a much smaller piece of airplay "pie" available to someone like Gary), and the song isn't selling well, at all. Just look at all the new artists that have gotten a breakthrough hit or two in the last 1-2 years: Tyler Farr, Sam Hunt, A Thousand Horses, Kelsea Ballerini, Eric Paslay, Canaan Smith, Frankie Ballard, Dustin Lynch, Maddie & Tae, Brett Eldredge, Chase Rice, Thomas Rhett, Cole Swindell, Parmalee, Chase Bryant, RaeLynn, Randy Houser, etc. There's more, too, but my point is that there have been a ton of new artists having success lately, and that pushes older artists like Gary, George, Toby, Reba, etc. toward the bottom of the chart. There's only so much room on radio stations' playlists, and when they're busy playing newcomers, well, that's how the old-timers start getting phased out. Radio can't support everybody. As for "Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)", I thought that one sounded like an obvious hit. I thought it was super radio-friendly, with a message that almost anyone could relate to. I was not surprised at all that it became a big hit, both at radio and digitally. I think "Hangover Tonight" is pretty radio-friendly and initially I thought it might be able to do well, but seeing how the charts have unfolded over the last 2 months or so, I'm really not surprised that this one has gotten lost in the shuffle.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on May 12, 2015 21:54:28 GMT -5
A small rally. I had almost given up, but now I'm back to hoping for a 1-mill BB gain over the next week. It can't be very likely.
There are a lot of weak songs in this part of the chart -- it's not their fault but they just can't escape this part of the chart and move up. Below #35 there are just so many songs for which a 200k gain would be a relatively strong week. Gary's just one of those. At least he's not finishing his chart run after only 10 or 11 weeks.
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Post by tim on May 12, 2015 23:54:54 GMT -5
I have mixed thoughts about this chart run as on one hand I'm a longtime Gary Allan fan going as far back as "Forever And A Day," however on the other hand I don't like this song much. Despite my lackluster feeling of the song, I really wanted to see Gary get a surprise hit out this. I do think, though, that Gary's days at radio are likely over. He tried chasing a trend with this one and it didn't work out...I personally want Gary to go back and deliver more of his signature style.
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2015 1:24:54 GMT -5
He tried chasing a trend with this one and it didn't work out. I don't think he chased a trend here? This doesn't sound like anything else on the radio. If anything, he took a bit of a risk. The song is a happier love song, which is not something we usually get from Gary Allan, and it's got a really funky sound to it, although I think it still sounds radio-friendly. The problem is simply the overcrowded release schedule and the fact that Gary has never been consistent at radio. As a result, this one is getting lost in the shuffle.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 18, 2015 21:47:13 GMT -5
I'm pretty confident that this one will not see the MB top 40 as well as the Billboard top 40. Gary went bulletless on Billboard this week and he barely kept a bullet on MB. "Hangover Tonight" has actually lost 100k in total audience on MB over the past eight weeks, which essentially means his song isn't doing much of anything. It's also not selling well, which just exacerbates the problem - though when your song's highest spin total over a seven day period is just 26, even though you're on 107 monitored stations, that's a factoring contributor.
I really do think this song is radio-friendly enough but Gary's best days at radio are behind him and the crowded chart isn't helping.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2015 22:16:49 GMT -5
Well, according to Gary's Facebook page, they shot the video for "Hangover Tonight" today.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2015 17:55:39 GMT -5
This one will go recurrent on Monday's Billboard chart if it doesn't re-bullet, and right now I don't think it will. Gary lost 23 spins and almost 200k in audience in today's MB update.
This song might already be recurrent by the time the video comes out...if it even comes out at all (as I noted above, they shot a video for this song about 1 1/2 weeks ago).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2015 18:02:25 GMT -5
^Ouch that's bad. While this is hands down Gary Allan's worse song I still want him to get an album out.
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