3/24 HDD: Kendrick Lamar #1 319k Albums / 355k SPS

[Adam (UTR)]

Believe it or not, digital albums are UP 685k year-over-year two weeks from the end of Q1, thanks in no small measure to Drake’s surprise digital-only release. Album sales may see a slight lift next week, as the early release of Kendrick Lamar’s To Pimp a Butterfly is expected to sell more than the entire Top 5 from the corresponding week last year. (HDD)

The corresponding week last year refers to this, in which the top five sold a combined 399k.

EDIT:
Kendrick Lamar (TDE/Aftermath/Interscope) 350-375k SPS (300-325k albums)
Modest Mouse (Epic) 70-75k SPS (65-70k albums)
Marina & The Diamonds (Atlantic) 45-50k SPS (40-45k albums)
Sleeping With Sirens (Epitaph) 40-45k SPS (35-40k albums)
AWOLNATION (Red Bull) 35-40k SPS (30-35k albums) (HDD)

[#LisaRinna]

Yasss KDot!

[allow that]

Surprised the projection for Kendrick isn't well above 500k considering the internet's conformity in dick riding.

[areyoureadytojump]

Where is this 400k figure?

[Wave.]

Yes double the fck up, Kendricka! I actually think predictions are going to rise.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

To be fair, they don't say that he ISNT going to sell over 500k, just that his sales are going to be higher than the combined Top 5 last year. And that's only talking about pure sales. With 9.6 million streams on day 1, with the vast majority coming from the US, plus TEA, he's going to have a pretty massive SPS haul too.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Mar 18, 2015 12:28:49 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Where is this 400k figure?

last year's top 5 combined for 399k, they're saying he will sell more, which would be minimum 400k.

[ILLUSION]

Get it, Kendrick. Good for him. His SPS numbers are going to be HUGE. I think over 500k is guaranteed.

[kanimal]

Physical copies of Kendrick Lamar’s How to Pimp a Butterfly are just now arriving in many stores, making today’s projections somewhat tenuous; those projections are likely to grow throughout the week. Here are this week’s key debuts, with both Sales Plus Streaming (SPS) numbers first, followed by albums:

Kendrick Lamar (TDE/Aftermath/Interscope) 350-375k SPS (300-325k albums)
Modest Mouse (Epic) 70-7k SPS (65-70k albums)
Marina & The Diamonds (Atlantic) 45-50k SPS (40-45k albums)
Sleeping With Sirens (Epitaph) 40-45k SPS (35-40k albums)
AWOLNATION (Red Bull) 35-40k SPS (30-35k albums)

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=295161

[jgizzle89]

Mid-300k makes sense considering his complete lack of single and relative inaccessibility of this album. It's getting stellar reviews, but doesn't really have any radio appeal, so it's going to have to go off of word of mouth.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

That pretty great for Marina, I didn't expect her to do nearly that much. Electra Heart barely made a blip

[Glove Slap]

That's very impressive for Marina!

Kendrick's will go up. I don't expect him to top 600k like some (for all his hype, the actual sales of his debut aren't stratospheric), but he should cross 400k with ease.

[Linnethia Monique]

Now with the addition of them just now shipping the album into stores I can see that projection skyrocketing heading into Friday and the weekend.

[Kurt]

I think the five-month pre-release rollout helped Marina quite a bit, especially with good early preorders propelling instant-grats to the top of iTunes each month. Interesting, because I also think Kelly Clarkson's recent week-before-release rollout was beneficial to her too. I guess both solutions can work favorably.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

His whole album is perched in the Spotify top 20. His streaming is absolutely massive and he's going to blow past Drakes 40 million streams.

I had originally though Marina's 5 month "fruit of the month" promo was kind of gimicky and too long to sustain interest in a project for her, and in the end the album ended up getting pushed early anyway because the whole thing leaked, but the visability of the preorder tracks I think definitely helped move units. She's doing more with her first week than people like Charli XCX and Tove Lo had with massive radio & streaming hits.

[areyoureadytojump]

Good for Modest Mouse. I had no idea they had an album coming out.

[DJ General]

Kendrick has a lot of buzz like Drake. Even without a single, it should have done a bit of better. It is still really early, and the numbers are still great. I'm thinking by the final sales he would be around 425k which is perfect.

[DJ General]

Also, that is really great for Modest Mouse! Haven't heard their whole album yet, but it is great what I did hear!

[swim]

You can't help but think the numbers would be bigger if it wasn't for the leak (though I don't think these are disappointing), he'll likely go up. With the rushed rollout and the delay of the physical copies just arriving now, I wonder if his second week drop will be mild compared to other artists.

[Glove Slap]

Mar 18, 2015 14:40:02 GMT -5 YourFaveIsAFlop said:

His whole album is perched in the Spotify top 20. His streaming is absolutely massive and he's going to blow past Drakes 40 million streams.

I had originally though Marina's 5 month "fruit of the month" promo was kind of gimicky and too long to sustain interest in a project for her, and in the end the album ended up getting pushed early anyway because the whole thing leaked, but the visability of the preorder tracks I think definitely helped move units. She's doing more with her first week than people like Charli XCX and Tove Lo had with massive radio & streaming hits.

I think people underestimate what Electra Heart did for her in the US, it gave her a window to cultivate a fanbase and she did. She was a very hot touring ticket for the size venues she played at (1-2k mostly I think).

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Yeah I saw her live during her electra heart tour and was surprised how big of a following she had since I had never met anybody who even knew who she was let alone liked her

[Glove Slap]

I think she played the blog/hipster route better, or at least to a better end, than most. Some may thought that Lana just outdid everything she tried to do, but Marina got a small chunk of a similar audience for herself.

It's cool that this is gonna start out so high, since her previous one never got higher than #31 I think.

[Wave.]

KDot will double his opening(I think) if he opens with 425k.

[Verisimilitude]

Huge numbers for Marina! So happy for her!

[grandelf]

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6502518/kendrick-lamar-first-number-1-album-pimp-butterfly

Kendrick Lamar Heading for First No. 1 Album on Billboard 200
By Keith Caulfield | March 18, 2015 5:09 PM EDT



Kendrick Lamar is off to a fast start with his surprise early release, To Pimp a Butterfly, and it should give the artist his first No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart next week. Industry sources are forecasting the set to move over 325,000 equivalent album units in the week ending March 22.

The Billboard 200 chart ranks the most popular albums of the week based on multi-metric consumption, which includes traditional album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). The new Billboard 200's top 10 will be revealed on Wednesday, March 25.

Lamar's set, released on Aftermath/Interscope Records, arrived at midnight on Monday, March 16, to the iTunes Store -- slightly more than week before its announced release date of March 23. (It then dropped off the store, only to return in the afternoon later that day.) The set's release date was only announced on March 11. After its iTunes bow, it started to make its way to other retailers. The physical version of the album seems to be in stock at most major brick and mortar retailers. (As of March 18, Target doesn't appear to be selling the title, however, a representative for the company says the album will be available in stores and online soon.)

Lamar's last album, 2012's good kid, m.A.A.d. city, debuted and peaked at No. 2 on the Billboard 200, selling 241,000 copies in its first week, according to Nielsen Music. It has sold 1.4 million copies to date.

Other albums on track for significant debuts include Modest Mouse's Strangers to Ourselves (aiming for around a 70,000 unit arrival) and Marina & the Diamonds' Froot (45,000).

[SHOOTER]

Mar 18, 2015 11:16:31 GMT -5 Adam (UTR) said:

Kendrick Lamar (TDE/Aftermath/Interscope) 350-375k SPS (300-325k albums)

Overly Dedicated has sold 12k to date.

Section.80 debuted at #113 with 5.4k (80k to date).

good kid, m.A.A.d city debuted at #2 with 241k (1.4m to date).

[ILLUSION]

Section.80 is a great album. Too bad it's sold less than Paris Hilton's debut. Let that sink in.

[Rican@]

I honestly expected more for Kendrick. Still great numbers, but I was thinking he could pull 700K. Something needs to change to get digital to pull even higher numbers for these artists.

[SHOOTER]

Mar 18, 2015 11:16:31 GMT -5 Adam (UTR) said:

Modest Mouse (Epic) 70-75k SPS (65-70k albums)

The Moon & Antarctica peaked at #120 (171k to date).

Good News for People Who Love Bad News debuted at #19 with 68k (1.5m to date).

We Were Dead Before the Ship Even Sank debuted at #1 with 129k (649k to date).

[areyoureadytojump]

Mar 18, 2015 16:47:06 GMT -5 Rican@ said:

I honestly expected more for Kendrick. Still great numbers, but I was thinking he could pull 700K. Something needs to change to get digital to pull even higher numbers for these artists.

If it was a traditional release with digital with physical out on the same day AND on the scheduled day. it would have done much better.

HITS estimated 400-600k last fall for Kendrick.

He could end up with 400k and good 2nd week numbers, I would think.

This album is getting rave reviews and will easily outsell his last album.