allow that
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Post by allow that on Apr 6, 2015 18:22:53 GMT -5
I don't think sales alone will be enough for "See You Again" to reach #1 so fast. As someone said, it'd need to have around 400k in sales to pull it off which would mean it'd need to keep the margin of its sales lead for practically the whole week.
Streaming would be a different story, but the video's 14.5 million views over the past 18 hours are only on Facebook. If it were YouTube it'd probably be a done deal, but alas Billboard's streaming component is so selective.
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 6, 2015 18:29:46 GMT -5
I don't think sales alone will be enough for "See You Again" to reach #1 so fast. As someone said, it'd need to have around 400k in sales to pull it off which would mean it'd need to keep the margin of its sales lead for practically the whole week. Streaming would be a different story, but the video's 14.5 million views over the past 18 hours are only on Facebook. If it were YouTube it'd probably be a done deal, but alas Billboard's streaming component is so selective. Good points. If true, why on earth didnt they just upload it to You Tube? Anyways, this is now one of the most exciting chart weeks maybe since Blurred Lines was on fire...possibly bigger. So if it was the old formula (just sales/airplay), if SYA did around 400k that would be prob. have been enough to debut at #1 simply based on the sales? Streaming etc..'may' be UFs extra thin layer of protection. Cant wait to see the sales projections from either BB, Kworb or 'someone' reputable who ends up leaking the #s. I'm assuming Wed/Thurs is when those #s will come out. W/ SYA having a 60% lead as of now sales are obviously super strong. Again, its only Monday but if the lead increases throughout most of the week, then I think the writing is on the wall. Hopefully UF somehow at least gets back into the 50-60% range...very soon lol. However since UFs sales this week prob. wouldnt have been much more than 120k ish, to have a 60%+ lead doesnt mean SYAs sales are that massive.
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 6, 2015 19:03:11 GMT -5
Why are we assuming SYA will be a legit threat yet? BBHMM had a big lead in sales last week and now look at it. Without much of any airplay it will be really hard for it for at least a few weeks. And by then who knows what its sales will be. Agree. As badly as it a was received BBHMM 'still' had several constant green updates for a least a few days..maybe longer I think. Difference is, this technically is a much better song coming from a monster of a movie and more importantly UF is constantly getting red updates (which oddly only started today). Almost like overnight people just got 'over it' lol. If was falling but not getting red update after update would look better. Not saying it's not a temporary thing but not looking good as of this second. Even though SYA def. isn't my thing, I'd be surprised if it started to suddenly fall in the way BBHMM did. But I'm w/ you, a lot of the sales def. are front-loaded cause its from a movie that just debuted w/143 million! lol I know the true chart gurus get how the Itunes bars, calculations, #s etc...all work better than me. But as I said in another post- now that I think about it if UF was still getting 200-300k weeks and SYA had a 60% lead, just basic logic is they def. would getting well over 400-500k. If UF did around 150k last week, in all likelihood it's gonna prob only do 130k this week (could be a bit higher or lower). Either way, not spectacular #s so for a song to have a 60 and maybe 70%+ lead by weeks end doesn't mean SYAs #s will be anything epic. They'll def. be solid and significantly more than UF. If it stays constantly green most of the week than there's def. a chance it could do 400kish. I think its all about how frequently it gets green updates that usually determine how how much its gonna sell. If it stops getting constant green updates means its stabilized.
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Apr 6, 2015 21:31:02 GMT -5
The sales chart week is not going to help SYA in any way. Knowing that everything before today (I believe) doesn't count towards it challenging for #1 in UF's 15th week. If SYA has a 60%-70% lead on Itunes the entire week there's a chance, but I'm not sure that will happen. Even if it did, the airplay and streaming are so lopsided I'm not sure it would even be enough.
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 6, 2015 21:36:37 GMT -5
Oh my... I dont think UF has *anything to worry about w/ Sugar now (after 'that' performance) lol. Awful. Was almost painful Adam sounded so off key, tired like he just wanted to crash in bed. Audience felt his pain and was almost mute the whole time lol.
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 6, 2015 21:45:20 GMT -5
The sales chart week is not going to help SYA in any way. Knowing that everything before today (I believe) doesn't count towards it challenging for #1 in UF's 15th week. If SYA has a 60%-70% lead on Itunes the entire week there's a chance, but I'm not sure that will happen. Even if it did, the airplay and streaming are so lopsided I'm not sure it would even be enough. Huh . Maybe I misread/misunderstood part of your post. Today/this week (will determine whether or not UF gets a 15th week *next week obviously). 14th week at #1 is already a near 100% done deal (based on what happened last week/up until Sunday night) even though we wont get the 'final' confirmation until Tues/Wed. I get what you're saying though how lopsided airplay/streaming is which 'may' and should benefit UF...even if by a minimal margin. If SYA had semi strong/decent airplay #1 would be close to 100%. Its only Monday. Its way too early to know whats gonna happen on next weeks charts. Though very unlikely, Sugar still even has a slight chance. Hands down though SYA is that perfect storm that no one saw coming. I just wish it came sooner (like 3-4 weeks ago instead of when a song I really like is 'this' close to breaking a major record). lol
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 6, 2015 22:15:52 GMT -5
Don't look now but in the last day or so, Flo Rida has been slowly creeping up on Uptown Funk on iTunes. Uptown Funk could be at #3 in the next couple days
and regarding the above post, yes week 14 is a done deal. Week 15 though is starting to look a little on the iffy side
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Fancy
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Post by Fancy on Apr 6, 2015 22:18:04 GMT -5
Don't look now but in the last day or so, Flo Rida has been slowly creeping up on Uptown Funk on iTunes. Uptown Funk could be at #3 in the next couple days and not just him -- ellie and fetty wap are very close as well. the region's probably going to be volatile for the next week.
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 6, 2015 22:22:55 GMT -5
Just seems (kind of like what happened with Blurred Lines) UF is just crash landing. Didnt happen slowly/surely but very abrupt . Dunno if its cause of SYA or its just a coincidence. Cause even w/ SYA out of the mix, all these others songs would most likely still be rapidly catching up to UF
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surfy
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Post by surfy on Apr 7, 2015 0:16:59 GMT -5
There was finally a reason to visit this thread again! I'm tired of seeing everyone (yall know who you are) who repeatedly push their opinions in these threads. Got old a loooong time ago. Anyways, carry on. Oh and lol @ everyone arguing with such an obvious troll.
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Apr 7, 2015 5:26:23 GMT -5
Just seems (kind of like what happened with Blurred Lines) UF is just crash landing. Didnt happen slowly/surely but very abrupt . Dunno if its cause of SYA or its just a coincidence. Cause even w/ SYA out of the mix, all these others songs would most likely still be rapidly catching up to UF I think SYA and the Easter sale had something to do with it
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Apr 7, 2015 5:42:58 GMT -5
LooK's like the Sales gap between UF and SYA is going to get huge. They're performing it on the voice on Wednesday. Well RIP UF's chances at breaking the record lol
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Apr 7, 2015 6:01:52 GMT -5
I can't believe I missed the entire mess. Btw, does that zombie got banned?
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ry4n
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Post by ry4n on Apr 7, 2015 6:04:57 GMT -5
Top 10 flashbacks for this week
1 year ago (4/19/2014)
1 1 Happy - Pharrell Williams (7th week of 10 @ #1) 2 2 All Of Me - John Legend 3 3 Dark Horse - Katy Perry feat. Juicy J 4 4 Talk Dirty - Jason Derulo feat. 2 Chainz 5 5 Let It Go - Idina Menzel 6 6 Pompeii - Bastille 7 7 Team - Lorde 8 9 Counting Stars - OneRepublic 9 8 The Man - Aloe Blacc 10 10 Turn Down For What - DJ Snake & Lil Jon
+ 11 12 Best Day Of My Life - American Authors
5 years ago (4/17/2010)
1 1 Rude Boy - Rihanna (4th week of 5 @ #1) 2 2 Nothin' On You - B.o.B feat. Bruno Mars 3 3 Hey, Soul Sister - Train 4 4 Need You Now - Lady Antebellum 5 5 Telephone - Lady Gaga & Beyonce 6 6 Break Your Heart - Taio Cruz feat. Ludacris 7 7 Imma Be - Black Eyed Peas 8 8 Baby - Justin Bieber feat. Ludacris 9 11 In My Head - Jason Derulo 10 9 BedRock - Young Money feat. Lloyd
10 years ago (4/16/2005)
1 1 Candy Shop - 50 Cent feat. Olivia (7th week of 9 @ #1) 2 3 Hate It Or Love It - The Game feat. 50 Cent 3 2 Since U Been Gone - Kelly Clarkson 4 4 Obsession - Frankie J feat. Baby Bash 5 12 Lonely - Akon 6 5 Boulevard Of Broken Dreams - Green Day 7 6 Disco Inferno - 50 Cent 8 7 Let Me Love You - Mario 9 10 Rich Girl - Gwen Stefani feat. Eve 10 8 Caught Up - Usher
15 years ago (4/15/2000)
1 1 Maria Maria - Satana feat. The Product G&B (2nd week of 10 @ #1) 2 2 Say My Name - Destiny's Child 3 3 Breathe - Faith Hill 4 5 Bye Bye Bye - *NSYNC 5 4 Amazed - Lonestar 6 6 Thong Song - Sisqo 7 7 There You Go - P!nk 8 12 I Try - Macy Gray 9 8 Show Me The Meaning Of Being Lonely - Backstreet Boys 10 9 Get It On Tonite - Montell Jordan
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2015 6:34:45 GMT -5
Sugar is ahead of UF on iTunes now. LooK's like the Sales gap between UF and SYA is going to get huge. They're performing it on the voice on Wednesday. Well RIP UF's chances at breaking the record lol Not necessarily. It has only been 1 day out of 7 in the sales week no guarantee that SYA will hold with those sales for the entire week and unless it has comparable streaming to that of UF, it would have to; if the long string of dark reds starts kicking in tomorrow or something then that's not gonna be a #1 for SYA. And even if SYA does get the sales and for #1 this week, there's no guarantee that it will hold on after the first week. For all we know it can crash after the first week of the movie and then with UF still dominating in sales it would return for a 15th week to #1. Anything is possible at this point though really. I can't believe I missed the entire mess. Btw, does that zombie got banned? Yes
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 7, 2015 8:07:41 GMT -5
Either way, Uptown Funk getting to 17 weeks seems unlikely at this point. Even 15 seems to be a stretch.
NOTE: all are still possible, in my opinion anything beyond 14 seems unlikley
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Mikey
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Post by Mikey on Apr 7, 2015 8:11:28 GMT -5
It's funny how fast things changed lol. A few days ago we were so confident that UF could get to 17 weeks, but now we didn't believe that it would even get more than 14 weeks lmao. Anyways, that zombie was creepy
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2015 8:12:41 GMT -5
Either way, Uptown Funk getting to 17 weeks seems unlikely at this point. Even 15 seems to be a stretch. NOTE: all are still possible, in my opinion anything beyond 14 seems unlikley Well that's only if SYA continues the sales growth it has now don't forget UF still has a huge lead in streaming and airplay EDIT: yay SUAD #3 on iTunes even though it's still only #5 overall
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 7, 2015 8:22:18 GMT -5
zombie guy is laughing probably about now. A 3 to 1 sales lead is pretty high. although Uptown has leads in the other two, those are not insurmountable. Pinning 17 on this song this far in advance has always less than seemed less than a guarantee to me. In my opinion nothing has changed
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2015 8:26:26 GMT -5
zombie guy is laughing probably about now. A 3 to 1 sales lead is pretty high. although Uptown has leads in the other two, those are not insurmountable. Pinning 17 on this song this far in advance has always less than seemed less than a guarantee to me. In my opinion nothing has changed Too bad he can't go on here to comment and rain on our parade about how we are all "shitheads" and whatnot poor guy but with the long weekend being over and whatnot, I won't be surprised to see SYA start to crash again, in which case UF will be safe for a 15th week at #1. As long as it gets 15, I'll be happy because it'll be only the second song to do so. Tying the record would be even better. At this point it doesn't really even matter though. UF is pretty much guaranteed year-end #1 and decade-end #1 is certainly not out of the question.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2015 8:28:50 GMT -5
Omfg, how the hell did I miss this?! Just read the whole comments fight, my god, some people are really stupid!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2015 8:30:50 GMT -5
^ yeah you missed quite a show lol.
What happened to Spotify? They haven't updated the charts in a couple weeks now...
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Post by Mikel Echarri on Apr 7, 2015 8:32:41 GMT -5
iTunes US
#1 See You Again 1.0000 #2 Sugar 0.3481 (Combined) #3 Uptown Funk 0.2911 (~0.3200 combined) #4 Shut Up and Dance 0.2867 #5 Love Me Like You Do 0.2861
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Apr 7, 2015 8:37:35 GMT -5
Someone posted in the other thread that "See You Again" is now ahead of "Uptown Funk" on Spotify as well.
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jjose712
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Post by jjose712 on Apr 7, 2015 8:38:04 GMT -5
The advatage in sales is big, but we'll see if Whiz is able to sustain that advantage, because the difference in airplay between both songs is huge too.
UF had a perfect timing in all formats that made possible to block huge hits, but sooner or later sales go down (and airplay and streams too). Anyway i won't bet against UF so soon
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JamaicaFunk²
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Post by JamaicaFunk² on Apr 7, 2015 9:02:02 GMT -5
The advatage in sales is big, but we'll see if Whiz is able to sustain that advantage, because the difference in airplay between both songs is huge too. We will see what See You Again does in airplay over the next eight days. Currently, theres over 200 million difference in audience impressions. Obviously by next Wednesday that will be much less. But, if See You Again can manage a 200k sales lead, it should take #1 next week. I would guess it'll be another big weekend for F&F7 at the box office, so that should keep the song selling well through Sunday night. The biggest downside is Sugar probably not reaching #1. Within 30 million AI (probably 20 by next week), could top UF in sales this week, and still good streaming numbers. Darn it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2015 9:07:52 GMT -5
The advatage in sales is big, but we'll see if Whiz is able to sustain that advantage, because the difference in airplay between both songs is huge too. We will see what See You Again does in airplay over the next eight days. Currently, theres over 200 million difference in audience impressions. Obviously by next Wednesday that will be much less. But, if See You Again can manage a 200k sales lead, it should take #1 next week. I would guess it'll be another big weekend for F&F7 at the box office, so that should keep the song selling well through Sunday night. The biggest downside is Sugar probably not reaching #1. Within 30 million AI (probably 20 by next week), could top UF in sales this week, and still good streaming numbers. Darn it. It would need much more than 200k sales lead. It would need at least 350k sales lead. It is far behind UF on streaming too.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Apr 7, 2015 9:08:50 GMT -5
The advatage in sales is big, but we'll see if Whiz is able to sustain that advantage, because the difference in airplay between both songs is huge too. We will see what See You Again does in airplay over the next eight days. Currently, theres over 200 million difference in audience impressions. Obviously by next Wednesday that will be much less. But, if See You Again can manage a 200k sales lead, it should take #1 next week. I would guess it'll be another big weekend for F&F7 at the box office, so that should keep the song selling well through Sunday night. Wiz's sales lead and Mark's airplay lead will more or less cancel each other out. It'll all come down to streaming. Wiz is ahead on Spotify, but YouTube/VEVO streams seem to hold much more power. Wiz's video is now available on his VEVO channel, but most of its streams are coming from the Facebook video (20 million now!) or the F&F7 page on YouTube which is listed under "Movies" or something. So basically, 90% of Wiz's music video streams won't count.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2015 9:10:19 GMT -5
I guess that means UF still has a decent chance at 15 weeks then :) After that it will depend on how well SYA holds up in sales. Clearly it's doing significantly better than WOI did in 2013!
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Daniel Collins
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Post by Daniel Collins on Apr 7, 2015 9:10:39 GMT -5
Top 10 flashbacks for this week 10 years ago (4/16/2005)
1 1 Candy Shop - 50 Cent feat. Olivia (7th week of 9 @ #1)2 3 Hate It Or Love It - The Game feat. 50 Cent 3 2 Since U Been Gone - Kelly Clarkson 4 4 Obsession - Frankie J feat. Baby Bash 5 12 Lonely - Akon 6 5 Boulevard Of Broken Dreams - Green Day 7 6 Disco Inferno - 50 Cent 8 7 Let Me Love You - Mario 9 10 Rich Girl - Gwen Stefani feat. Eve 10 8 Caught Up - Usher 81 (NEW) We Belong Together - Mariah Carey
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