Billboard Hot 100 : 05/09/2015

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabase 04/23/15

1. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 189.033 (+ 3.049)
2. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 181.176 (- 0.806)
3. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 179.567 (- 1.822)
4. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 178.708 (+ 0.389)
5. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 149.478 (- 2.762)
6. NATALIE LA ROSE - Somebody f/Jeremih: 134.422 (+ 0.209)
7. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 123.776 (- 1.806)
8. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 110.976 (+ 1.867)
9. ARIANA GRANDE – One Last Time: 104.334 (- 0.004)
10. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 98.351 (+ 2.572)
11. FLO RIDA – GDFR f/ Sage The Gemini: 88.931 (+ 1.224)
12. TAYLOR SWIFT - Blank Space: 79.691 (- 0.183)
13. PITBULL - Time Of Our Lives f/Ne-Yo: 75.347 (- 1.891)
14. FETTY WAP - Trap Queen: 74.817 (+ 0.971) ▲
15. SAM HUNT – Take Your Time: 73.412 (- 1.753) ▼
16. DIERKS BENTLEY - Say You Do: 72.804 (+ 0.069)
17. NICKI MINAJ - Truffle Butter f/Drake...: 71.251 (- 0.488)
18. LEE BRICE - Drinking Class: 69.802 (+ 0.495)
19. KEITH URBAN - Raise 'Em Up f/Eric Church: 66.603 (+ 0.541)
20. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 65.675 (+ 5.077) ▲

TYLER FARR - A Guy Walks Into A Bar: 63.152 (+ 0.509)
NICK JONAS - Chains: 62.802 (+ 0.044)
BILLY CURRINGTON - Don't It: 60.342 (+ 0.747)
ZEDD - I Want You To Know f/S. Gomez: 56.979 (- 0.120)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Sippin' On Fire: 53.494 (+ 1.272)
SAM SMITH – Lay Me Down: 50.214 (+ 0.088)
TOVE LO - Talking Body: 49.825 (+ 1.084)
OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 48.388 (+ 1.169)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Little Toy Guns: 40.430 (+ 0.444)
GEORGE EZRA - Budapest: 37.730 (+ 0.907)
DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/N. Minaj & Afrojack: 33.427 (+ 1.541)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Dear Future Husband: 32.806 (+ 0.866)
DJ SNAKE & ALUNAGEORGE - You Know You Like It: 32.907 (+ 0.363)
RIHANNA - Bitch Better Have My Money: 32.733 (+ 0.359)
ECHOSMITH - Bright: 30.740 (+ 0.794)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Girl Crush: 27.577 (+ 0.861)
FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 22.085 (+ 0.171)
CIARA - I Bet: 20.581 (+ 0.003)
KENDRICK LAMAR - King Kunta: 12.830 (+ 0.075)
SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 10.552 (+ 0.380)
TINASHE - All Hands On Deck: 9.932 (+ 0.247)
THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 5.460 (+ 0.377)
CALVIN HARRIS - Pray To God f/HAIM: 5.103 (+ 0.259)
PITBULL - Fun f/Chris Brown: 5.040 (+ 0.517)
CARLY RAE JEPSEN - I Really Like You: 4.453 (+ 0.268)
YEARS & YEARS - King: 3.893 (+ 0.162)
RIHANNA - American Oxygen: 2.775 (+ 0.358)
MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 2.742 (+ 0.364)
ADAM LAMBERT - Ghost Town: 1.938 (+ 0.745)
NICKI MINAJ - The Night Is Still Young: 1.440
PANIC! AT THE DISCO - Hallelujah: 1.238 (+ 0.847)

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

See You Again with a +5M without adding a format :o

[Future Captain]

See You Again will be #12 in Airplay by the end of the week.

[Deleted]

Gary said UF will be #5 in airplay this week. That is incorrect the next-highest increasing song is 45M away which would require the gap to close by about 7.5M per day (by Kworb/Mediabase). "Somebody" isn't increasing fast enough for this to happen this week. UF will be #4 in airplay. #7-#9 in sales and I would guess still #3 in streaming. It's up to EI to make up that streaming difference by leading UF in sales and airplay. I'm going to be so pissed though if SYA ends up blocking EI...

[Gary]

Apr 23, 2015 13:34:11 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Gary said UF will be #5 in airplay this week. That is incorrect the next-highest increasing song is 45M away which would require the gap to close by about 7.5M per day (by Kworb/Mediabase). "Somebody" isn't increasing fast enough for this to happen this week. UF will be #4 in airplay. #7-#9 in sales and I would guess still #3 in streaming. It's up to EI to make up that streaming difference by leading UF in sales and airplay. I'm going to be so pissed though if SYA ends up blocking EI...

Sigh.....

Yes #4 in airplay - I was wrong, my mistake.  I apologize.

Currently #8 in itunes

As you said that will add up to #2 by the end of the week.  If the song at #1 starts falling or a viral Uptown Funk video takes the internet by storm, hey, ya never know.

All I can do at this point is

[Future Captain]

Ready for another snoozefest of week....

[Gary]

It can be as exciting as you want to make it. The current 5/2 thread is still active because they found other things to talk about and even before that hit 8/9 pages.


#1 is a done deal here. According to Mark G. so is #2. What is #3, #4? Anything new? Always stuff to talk about. If you can't find anything new to talk about you can always talk about other stuff.

[wjr15]

I haven't seen a Hot 100 thread this slow in about a month.

But with Britney and Taylor releasing new music soon, this must be the calm before the storm.

[Daniel Collins]

2015/04/24

*** = dropped or added a format

1. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 192.426 (+1.828)
2. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 184.219 (-0.070) ▲
3. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 183.524 (-1.687) ▼
4. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 181.676 (-1.856)
5. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 149.014 (-3.474***)
6. NATALIE LA ROSE - Somebody f/Jeremih: 136.958 (-0.285)
7. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 124.494 (-1.806)
8. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 112.775 (+2.225)
9. ARIANA GRANDE - One Last Time: 105.585 (-0.073)
10. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 101.199 (+2.068)
11. FLO RIDA - GDFR f/Sage The Gemini: 92.109 (+0.810)
12. TAYLOR SWIFT - Blank Space: 80.712 (-0.598)
13. PITBULL - Time Of Our Lives f/Ne-Yo: 77.975 (-2.063)
14. FETTY WAP - Trap Queen: 75.935 (+0.894)
15. DIERKS BENTLEY - Say You Do: 72.757 (-0.034)
16. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 71.554 (+5.012) ▲
17. NICKI MINAJ - Truffle Butter f/Drake...: 70.486 (-1.175)
18. SAM HUNT - Take Your Time: 70.299 (-2.310) ▼
19. LEE BRICE - Drinking Class: 69.806 (+0.011) ▼
20. KEITH URBAN - Raise 'Em Up f/Eric Church: 66.821 (+0.223) ▼

21. TYLER FARR - A Guy Walks Into A Bar: 63.962 (+0.829)
22. NICK JONAS - Chains: 63.485 (+0.384)
23. BILLY CURRINGTON - Don't It: 60.420 (+0.125)
24. ZEDD - I Want You To Know f/S. Gomez: 60.054 (+0.132) ▲
25. ZAC BROWN BAND - Homegrown: 57.226 (-2.979) ▼
26. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Sippin' On Fire: 54.478 (+1.053) ▲
27. A THOUSAND HORSES - Smoke: 53.399 (+0.768) ▲
28. KELLY CLARKSON - Heartbeat Song: 53.226 (-0.436) ▼
29. CHRIS BROWN & TYGA - Ayo: 52.335 (-1.360) ▼
30. TOVE LO - Talking Body: 50.498 (+0.606)
31. SAM SMITH - Lay Me Down: 50.030 (+0.349)
32. SAM SMITH - I'm Not The Only One: 49.204 (-0.432)
33. RAE SREMMURD - Tho Sum Mo f/Nicki Minaj: 48.655 (-0.276)
34. OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 48.525 (+0.835)
35. KENNY CHESNEY - Wild Child w/Grace Potter: 46.926 (+0.370)
36. HOZIER - Take Me To Church: 44.993 (-0.144) ▲
37. RIHANNA/KANYE WEST/P MCCARTNEY - FourFiveSeconds: 44.355 (-2.008) ▼
38. BIG SEAN - Blessings f/Drake: 44.310 (+0.102)
39. TIM MCGRAW - Diamond Rings And Old...: 43.751 (+0.169)
40. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Lips Are Movin: 43.245 (-0.133)

41. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Little Toy Guns: 40.577 (+0.159) ▲
42. VANCE JOY - Riptide: 39.792 (-0.956)
43. CHRIS YOUNG - Lonely Eyes: 39.410 (-2.775) ▼
44. EASTON CORBIN - Baby Be My Love Song: 38.940 (+0.156)
45. GEORGE EZRA - Budapest: 38.354 (+0.658)
46. NICK JONAS - Jealous: 37.397 (+0.236)
47. IMAGINE DRAGONS - I Bet My Life: 36.786 (+0.028) ▲
48. SAM SMITH - Stay With Me: 36.740 (-0.352) ▼
49. TAYLOR SWIFT - Shake It Off: 36.521 (+0.260) ▲
50. KELSEA BALLERINI - Love Me Like You Mean It: 36.291 (+0.644) ▲
51. COLE SWINDELL - Ain't Worth The Whiskey: 36.279 (-0.739) ▼
52. NICO & VINZ - Am I Wrong: 36.215 (-0.233) ▼
53. BRAD PAISLEY - Crushin' It: 34.948 (+0.116)
54. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/Nicki Minaj: 34.738 (+1.361) ▲
55. USHER - I Don't Mind f/Juicy J: 34.522 (-0.133) ▼
56. DJ SNAKE & ALUNAGEORGE - You Know You Like It: 33.918 (+0.937) ▲
57. KANYE WEST F/T.LONDON - All Day f/A.Kingd./P.McCartney: 33.687 (-0.001) ▼
58. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Dear Future Husband: 33.303 (+0.574) ▲
59. RIHANNA - Bitch Better Have My Money: 33.103 (+0.399) ▲
60. MAROON 5 - Animals: 32.863 (-0.136) ▼

61. ERIC PASLAY - She Don't Love You: 32.609 (+0.521) ▲
62. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 32.359 (+0.632) ▲
63. ECHOSMITH - Bright: 31.079 (+0.761) ▲
64. TREY SONGZ - Slow Motion: 30.274 (+0.744) ▲
65. CALVIN HARRIS - Outside f/Ellie Goulding: 29.668 (-3.646***) ▼
66. FRANKIE BALLARD - Young & Crazy: 29.294 (+0.316) ▲
67. DARIUS RUCKER - Homegrown Honey: 29.079 (-0.104)
68. MIRANDA LAMBERT - Little Red Wagon: 28.847 (-1.256) ▼
69. MAGIC! - Rude: 28.256 (+0.144) ▲
70. LUKE BRYAN - I See You: 28.133 (-0.354) ▼
71. LITTLE BIG TOWN - Girl Crush: 27.766 (+0.340) ▲
72. CANAAN SMITH - Love You Like That: 27.443 (+0.371) ▲
73. DISCLOSURE - Latch f/Sam Smith: 27.352 (+0.135) ▲
74. MEGHAN TRAINOR - All About That Bass: 27.243 (-0.519) ▼
75. JOHN LEGEND - All Of Me: 27.027 (-0.315) ▼

[Queen of Insomnia.]

RIHANNA - American Oxygen: 2.245 (- 0.530)

it's been sent for adds, right???

[Dylan :)]

Shut Up & Dance seems to be the only competition rn for See You Again. After that either Trap Queen or Want To Want Me (if WTWM's streaming picks up, which it seems to be doing). If only Worth It's radio could pick up. It might give it the push it needs to break the top 20 on iTunes :(

Does anyone know where Fire Meet Gasoline is rn on the US iTunes? I only know how to see the top 200..

[crystalphnx]

As SYA reminded us, competition can come from outside the Top 10 too. We were so blindsided by it because we kept expecting something to inch up to No. 1, not leap up.

SYA = 84 - 10 - 1
UF = 3 - 2 - 1
BS = 18 - 13 - 1
AATB = 3 - 2 - 1
SIO = X - X - 1
"Rude" = 2 - 2 - 1
"Fancy" = 3 - 2 - 1
AOM = 2 - 2 - 1
"Happy" = 2 - 2 - 1
DH = 4 - 2 - 1
"Timber" = 2 - 2 - 1
TM = 2 - 2 - 1

Inching up to the top has been the norm lately, no doubt, but we shouldn't necessarily discount everything that's lower - with the right promo (like a massive movie premiere + TV spots) given to the right song, something could explode in an instant.

[Deleted]

Apr 24, 2015 12:04:57 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

As SYA reminded us, competition can come from outside the Top 10 too. We were so blindsided by it because we kept expecting something to inch up to No. 1, not leap up.

SYA = 84 - 10 - 1
UF = 3 - 2 - 1
BS = 18 - 13 - 1
AATB = 3 - 2 - 1
SIO = X - X - 1
"Rude" = 2 - 2 - 1
"Fancy" = 3 - 2 - 1
AOM = 2 - 2 - 1
"Happy" = 2 - 2 - 1
DH = 4 - 2 - 1
"Timber" = 2 - 2 - 1
TM = 2 - 2 - 1

Inching up to the top has been the norm lately, no doubt, but we shouldn't necessarily discount everything that's lower - with the right promo (like a massive movie premiere + TV spots) given to the right song, something could explode in an instant.

Took that into account, but typically the ones with the sudden jumps are Katy, Taylor, Rihanna, Britney, etc. but there was no visible competition in sight from any of those (well Rihanna had one but BBHMM obviously didn't even make the top ten so that one turned out not to be a threat at all). Who would've thought Wiz Khalifa would do it within a matter of two weeks? I can't imagine that anyone saw this coming until after it started maintaining a huge lead on iTunes and the video started garnering tons of views (it was slow in views when it first got that big lead on iTunes, only getting less than 700k in the first day and at that rate UF would've probably still been #1 on the Hot 100 the following week, but of course SYA's views rose significantly, naturally, considering that FF7 was one of the most talked about things for a pretty long time and in fact it evidently still is, considering the box office scores even of this past week). SYA may have been one of the most sudden and unanticipated #1's ever on the Hot 100 (even with songs like SIO there was a lot of commotion and talk about it way before the single was even released because almost everyone knew Taylor was making a big comeback after being absent for more than a year).
Sorry for the long, descriptive comment lol

[Deleted]

Apr 24, 2015 10:40:25 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Shut Up & Dance seems to be the only competition rn for See You Again. After that either Trap Queen or Want To Want Me (if WTWM's streaming picks up, which it seems to be doing). If only Worth It's radio could pick up. It might give it the push it needs to break the top 20 on iTunes :(

Does anyone know where Fire Meet Gasoline is rn on the US iTunes? I only know how to see the top 200..

What about Bad Blood remix or the new Britney/Iggy? Like it or not, either or possibly even both of them could have big debuts (and they're coming out in a couple weeks). I hope one of those three prevents SYA from spending more than 5 weeks at #1.

EDIT: sorry for double post

[Dylan :)]

Apr 24, 2015 15:42:42 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Apr 24, 2015 10:40:25 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Shut Up & Dance seems to be the only competition rn for See You Again. After that either Trap Queen or Want To Want Me (if WTWM's streaming picks up, which it seems to be doing). If only Worth It's radio could pick up. It might give it the push it needs to break the top 20 on iTunes :(

Does anyone know where Fire Meet Gasoline is rn on the US iTunes? I only know how to see the top 200..

What about Bad Blood remix or the new Britney/Iggy? Like it or not, either or possibly even both of them could have big debuts (and they're coming out in a couple weeks). I hope one of those three prevents SYA from spending more than 5 weeks at #1.

EDIT: sorry for double post

True! Forgot about those! And Mariah. This re enforces my earlier posts about how you can't predict more than a week..

[crystalphnx]

Apr 24, 2015 15:40:53 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Took that into account, but typically the ones with the sudden jumps are Katy, Taylor, Rihanna, Britney, etc. but there was no visible competition in sight from any of those (well Rihanna had one but BBHMM obviously didn't even make the top ten so that one turned out not to be a threat at all). Who would've thought Wiz Khalifa would do it within a matter of two weeks? I can't imagine that anyone saw this coming until after it started maintaining a huge lead on iTunes and the video started garnering tons of views (it was slow in views when it first got that big lead on iTunes, only getting less than 700k in the first day and at that rate UF would've probably still been #1 on the Hot 100 the following week, but of course SYA's views rose significantly, naturally, considering that FF7 was one of the most talked about things for a pretty long time and in fact it evidently still is, considering the box office scores even of this past week). SYA may have been one of the most sudden and unanticipated #1's ever on the Hot 100 (even with songs like SIO there was a lot of commotion and talk about it way before the single was even released because almost everyone knew Taylor was making a big comeback after being absent for more than a year).
Sorry for the long, descriptive comment lol

Eh, don't wanna beat this horse too much more, but I still disagree with you trying to paint SYA as some kind of ultra-rare, freak occurrence.

It was unexpected on Pulse because the Pulse prediction method has been: look at the current Top 5/10, see if any female pop stars are dropping a new single soon, and then predict as many weeks out as one fancies. This is also the Pulse that tends to downplay/dismiss the success of non-pop hits like "Hot Boy", "Trap Queen", etc ("How is that still in the Top 10?", "No one I know likes that song!") Maybe if we had more Wiz fans here, someone would've said "Just wait, I bet this song's gonna explode when the movie drops."

And it's not all about Pulse necessarily: maybe the Hot 100 just isn't always totally predictable, which I think is good.

[jenglisbe]

"SYA" definitely isn't a 'freak' occurrence, but I do think it was a surprising development, even outside of Pulse. Rap artists haven't exactly been having huge hits lately, and I bet there were very few people anywhere who 3 weeks ago would have said Wiz would release a single that would knock "UF" from #1. Having said that, "SYA" is clearly popular, and it's a serious song related to a serious life circumstance, so it's in no way a freak song or anything. It's a legitimate hit that a lot of people seem to like.

[crystalphnx]

Apr 24, 2015 19:09:26 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

"SYA" definitely isn't a 'freak' occurrence, but I do think it was a surprising development, even outside of Pulse. Rap artists haven't exactly been having huge hits lately, and I bet there were very few people anywhere who 3 weeks ago would have said Wiz would release a single that would knock "UF" from #1. Having said that, "SYA" is clearly popular, and it's a serious song related to a serious life circumstance, so it's in no way a freak song or anything. It's a legitimate hit that a lot of people seem to like.

I might just be misunderstanding your wording, but SYA was released more than 3 weeks ago - it was released on March 17. People were buying it, and it was charting, just not high enough to be considered in the Pulse prediction method. Of course, it would be a big extreme to treat every song on the Hot 100 as a potential No. 1 contender - but my point is that sometimes we need to look outside the usual suspects.

That said, you're right that rappers haven't gone to No . 1 much in recent years, so it was somewhat unusual/unexpected in that regard. Similar to how its climb to the top was unusual/faster than average over the past couple years, but not unheard of.

[Gary]

Songs hitting #1 "from out of nowhere" are definitely common. Singles from blockbuster movies hitting big also not unprecedented. (which is what this is) 

Is this "the most unanticipated #1 ever on the Hot 100?". Obviously not. It may not even be the most unanticipated #1 ever in the Pulse community.

It only sent shock waves through a few people (well one in particular) because a certain #1 record was being challenged and fell short. Had See You Again hit a few weeks earlier, the few (or one) that this bothered would not have been so surprising or come across as so dramatic.

[jenglisbe]

Apr 24, 2015 19:24:48 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

Apr 24, 2015 19:09:26 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

"SYA" definitely isn't a 'freak' occurrence, but I do think it was a surprising development, even outside of Pulse. Rap artists haven't exactly been having huge hits lately, and I bet there were very few people anywhere who 3 weeks ago would have said Wiz would release a single that would knock "UF" from #1. Having said that, "SYA" is clearly popular, and it's a serious song related to a serious life circumstance, so it's in no way a freak song or anything. It's a legitimate hit that a lot of people seem to like.

I might just be misunderstanding your wording, but SYA was released more than 3 weeks ago - it was released on March 17. People were buying it, and it was charting, just not high enough to be considered in the Pulse prediction method. Of course, it would be a big extreme to treat every song on the Hot 100 as a potential No. 1 contender - but my point is that sometimes we need to look outside the usual suspects.

That said, you're right that rappers haven't gone to No . 1 much in recent years, so it was somewhat unusual/unexpected in that regard. Similar to how its climb to the top was unusual/faster than average over the past couple years, but not unheard of.

I didn't say it wasn't released as of 3 weeks ago, I said there are very few people who would have predicted 3 weeks ago that the song would go to #1. If you read the chart thread with posts from the beginning of April, not one person mentions "SYA" despite people wishing for something to come in and be a sensation. I don't think anyone in the media was talking about the song either. To me that is separate from "SYA" being a freak/undeserved #1, but it helps show that it's a surprise #1.

It's also interesting that people 'blame' its success on the film. I am sure that's helping, but does that mean we should discredit the success of "I Will Always Love You" or "My Heart Will Go On" since they were aided by successful films? In fact, I remember that "My Heart Will Go On" was flopping at radio until Titanic hit.

[crystalphnx]

Apr 24, 2015 19:37:26 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

I didn't say it wasn't released as of 3 weeks ago, I said there are very few people who would have predicted 3 weeks ago that the song would go to #1. If you read the chart thread with posts from the beginning of April, not one person mentions "SYA" despite people wishing for something to come in and be a sensation. I don't think anyone in the media was talking about the song either. To me that is separate from "SYA" being a freak/undeserved #1, but it helps show that it's a surprise #1.

The fact that people in the Pulse thread weren't talking about it just goes back to my original point - it wasn't a song on the Pulse radar.

Re: No one in the media talking about it, if you mean there weren't news articles declaring that it would unseat UF on the Hot 100 - that's true, but I don't think there's generally many publications writing articles predicting the Hot 100 a month in advance. In terms of general media coverage of the song:

It had its own BuzzFeed thread on March 9th, before it was even released on iTunes

In a Billboard interview published March 17th, Charlie talks about how much "people love it", so he was hearing positive feedback about it somewhere

The Huffington Post published an article on March 19th about how SYA will make everyone seeing the movie leave in tears, and compared it to "I'll Be Missing You"

There's also articles about the performance on Fallon on the 17th, and that's from less than a minute of searching via Google. The media WAS talking SYA, Pulse (including myself) just wasn't, at least not in the Hot 100 threads.

I'm not trying to argue that SYA was a predictable, obvious No. 1, I just don't like the mentality of "I/we weren't talking about it, therefore no one was." Yes, there's plenty of dedicated, passionate chart followers here who have a lot to offer - but we don't represent the entire American music-listening population.

[Gary]

This song was released before the movie hit theaters, but did not take off until the movie - no surprise


What makes this song special and unique in the eyes of Pulse is that it blocked a long standing record from being broken.

Otherwise, there is nothing unusual, unexpected or surprising about this song becoming a smash hit.

[Future Captain]

The MV definitely helped the song as well. I think sometimes we overestimated the general public when it comes to recepting something Backlash? What backlash?

[ss8]

Apr 24, 2015 19:26:02 GMT -5 Gary said:

Songs hitting #1 "from out of nowhere" are definitely common. Singles from blockbuster movies hitting big also not unprecedented. (which is what this is) 

Is this "the most unanticipated #1 ever on the Hot 100?". Obviously not. It may not even be the most unanticipated #1 ever in the Pulse community.

It only sent shock waves through a few people (well one in particular) because a certain #1 record was being challenged and fell short. Had See You Again hit a few weeks earlier, the few (or one) that this bothered would not have been so surprising or come across as so dramatic.

Exactly.Although UF was still gaining (it was already showing signs of peaking and even getting some minimal declines in airplay) if SYA came out when UF was say...at its 11th or 12th week at #1, SYA still had enough juice to topple it. By the 11th and 12th week I think sales for UF were already well under 200k/a week. At least 2-3 weeks of UF being #1 were due to next to no competition and a totally stagnant chart. Whether it was SYA or say Rihannas new song(s) were hot (out if the two, if things went according to Rihannas history up until this era and her name alone, I DEF. wouldve predicted Rihanna being the one to topple UF). 

[jenglisbe]

Why do people see "Trap Queen" as a threat to #1? Its airplay is increasing, but "SYA" will pass it this weekend and only continue to pull farther ahead. "SYA" is also ahead in sales and streams, no?

[Gary]

Right now there is no threat to #1

[Deleted]

Shut Up And Dance will be performed on the voice on 5/12 apparently. By then the gap between it and SYA on iTunes will likely have closed up enough (if it's not already ahead by then) to overtake SYA on iTunes with the boost it will get. It should be top 5 in airplay by then too (btw I think Daniel/redseagulls/other people who usually do it forgot to post today's update) and streaming is rapidly on the continuous rise (and the performance might boost that too) so maybe it can get #1 then and dethrone SYA! I hope Britney/Iggy/Taylor don't get in the way of that at the wrong time...but at this point SYA looks like it'll get at least 4-5 weeks at #1 for sure (unless it suddenly crashes next week and lets EI into #1? Would be really nice if that happened lol). 5/23 onwards will depend on the performance of three above mentioned songs (BB, PG and SUAD).

[Gary]

The rapid rise in airplay of See You Again will likely slow its fall from the top and delay the sudden crash

Predicting more than a week in advance gets a little tricky, as we saw "out of nowhere" new releases could come in and mess everything up. Predicting what those "out of nowhere" new track are also gets a little tricky. As we have seen a new release by a female pop star doesn't automatically translate to a #1 hit (see recent Rihanna songs for example). In fact the nextt "out of nowhere" hit might not be from a female pop star at all.

[Enigma.]

Do you think Girl Crush can smash on pop radio? I hope so.

[Deleted]

Apr 25, 2015 13:52:18 GMT -5 Gary said:

The rapid rise in airplay of See You Again will likely slow its fall from the top and delay the sudden crash

Predicting more than a week in advance gets a little tricky, as we saw "out of nowhere" new releases could come in and mess everything up. Predicting what those "out of nowhere" new track are also gets a little tricky. As we have seen a new release by a female pop star doesn't automatically translate to a #1 hit (see recent Rihanna songs for example). In fact the nextt "out of nowhere" hit might not be from a female pop star at all.

But at least this time we know what's coming so it's not really out of nowhere at all unless a viral smash pops out similar to Gangnam Style. Fans are anticipating the big releases from Britney/Iggy and Taylor (and we as chart followers are also aware of this), as well as we know that SUAD is on the rise (and is being performed on The Voice which, depending on the timing, could be the deal-breaker). So that's three contenders for dethroning SYA as early as the 5/23 chart. I dread the thought of all three of the, failing as that would mean no competition for SYA and that exploitation will continue to dominate for who knows how much longer...not only is the chart going to be boring to watch, it will be really sad to see how Paul is being used...