kirkw
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Post by kirkw on May 21, 2015 8:34:21 GMT -5
Crazy just how well this song sold out of the gate. I feel like Chris Young should be a lot bigger than he is. Hopefully this era will help restore him to at least the height he reached when he had 5 consecutive #1 hits. I believe this record has all the early signs of impacting his career more than any previous single he's had. Depending on what the rest of his new music sounds like, if it's high quality written material produced in a similar manner as this one, he's on his way to the next level. He not only possesses as great a singing talent that's come along in country music in my lifetime (nearly 60 years) but also has all the intangibles it takes to be a big star. I've said this since the first time I saw him on Nashville Star in 2006, that it's really only a matter of time he becomes as successful an artist as there's ever been in country music, he's really that good. He's just needed the material to rise to that level and the sound to stand out from the crowd. With this single, we may very well be seeing that beginning to take shape.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2015 8:37:36 GMT -5
I'm not convinced this will be a hit. With the onslaught of releases I don't see Chris necessarily getting the top spot. This summers gonna have a lot of releases and I think Chris will be the one in the dust.
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kirkw
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Post by kirkw on May 21, 2015 8:49:55 GMT -5
I'm not convinced this will be a hit. With the onslaught of releases I don't see Chris necessarily getting the top spot. This summers gonna have a lot of releases and I think Chris will be the one in the dust. I respectfully disagree. Early digital sales of this following up the way his last three singles from the previous CD performed at country radio almost guarantees this will rise to the top. This will be a number one hit at country radio at some point. I'll place a big bet on that happening.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2015 8:54:03 GMT -5
I'm not convinced this will be a hit. With the onslaught of releases I don't see Chris necessarily getting the top spot. This summers gonna have a lot of releases and I think Chris will be the one in the dust. I respectfully disagree. Early digital sales of this following up the way his last three singles from the previous CD performed at country radio almost guarantees this will rise to the top. This will be a number one hit at country radio at some point. I'll place a big bet on that happening. I understand but there's so many releases Luke Bryan Hunter Hayes Jake Owen The Band Perry and Miranda should have new material. Kellie Pickler has new material who knows when we'll get new material from like Scotty McCreery there's so much and I think Chris will come up just short.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on May 21, 2015 9:05:25 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree. Early digital sales of this following up the way his last three singles from the previous CD performed at country radio almost guarantees this will rise to the top. This will be a number one hit at country radio at some point. I'll place a big bet on that happening. I understand but there's so many releases Luke Bryan Hunter Hayes Jake Owen The Band Perry and Miranda should have new material. Kellie Pickler has new material who knows when we'll get new material from like Scotty McCreery there's so much and I think Chris will come up just short. Are you seriously suggesting that Kellie Pickler and Scotty McCreery's new songs could block or steal some of Chris Young's airplay? It's the other way around. Chris is a solid B-lister, and this will definitely be a hit given the early sales, buzz, and the fact that this song isn't the least bit polarizing. All of these big name artists releasing songs now will be fine since they will have momentum and the industry currently has a revolving door at the #1 position. The songs that are going to be in trouble are the songs currently stuck in 30-60 range on the charts that have been floundering without gaining anything significant airplay recently (Dan + Shay, Jana Kramer, Eli Young Band, Mo Pitney, Lady A, Chase Rice, etc.).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2015 9:22:35 GMT -5
I understand but there's so many releases Luke Bryan Hunter Hayes Jake Owen The Band Perry and Miranda should have new material. Kellie Pickler has new material who knows when we'll get new material from like Scotty McCreery there's so much and I think Chris will come up just short. Are you seriously suggesting that Kellie Pickler and Scotty McCreery's new songs could block or steal some of Chris Young's airplay? It's the other way around. Chris is a solid B-lister, and this will definitely be a hit given the early sales, buzz, and the fact that this song isn't the least bit polarizing. All of these big name artists releasing songs now will be fine since they will have momentum and the industry currently has a revolving door at the #1 position. The songs that are going to be in trouble are the songs currently stuck in 30-60 range on the charts that have been floundering without gaining anything significant airplay recently (Dan + Shay, Jana Kramer, Eli Young Band, Mo Pitney, Lady A, Chase Rice, etc.). Ok no what I'm suggesting is looking at all the future releases I can see Kellie and Scotty holding on for a long time while I can see Chris quickly going up but then ultimately hitting a bump in the road. We are talking of RCA here they've been lazy before I'd imagine it'll happen again see I'm just saying I can see Kellie and Scotty holding on for a long time just like I'd imagine EYB new one Jana Kramer and Dan + Shay holding on for a long time. My point is that I can foresee Chris Young having a quick run up the charts but RCA once again lacking the final push factor where as for Kellie I'd imagine Black River will stick with her song for awhile like Kelsea Ballerini. I see both ladies and Scotty having long runs with songs that'll take their time and could be more remembered that's where I'm getting at. I also think Chris could get caught in the web in the 30s early on. Cole Swindells Let Me See Ya Girl is already slowed down a considerable amount and I think Cole has more momentum than Chris. But hey what do I know.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on May 21, 2015 9:39:39 GMT -5
Are you seriously suggesting that Kellie Pickler and Scotty McCreery's new songs could block or steal some of Chris Young's airplay? It's the other way around. Chris is a solid B-lister, and this will definitely be a hit given the early sales, buzz, and the fact that this song isn't the least bit polarizing. All of these big name artists releasing songs now will be fine since they will have momentum and the industry currently has a revolving door at the #1 position. The songs that are going to be in trouble are the songs currently stuck in 30-60 range on the charts that have been floundering without gaining anything significant airplay recently (Dan + Shay, Jana Kramer, Eli Young Band, Mo Pitney, Lady A, Chase Rice, etc.). Ok no what I'm suggesting is looking at all the future releases I can see Kellie and Scotty holding on for a long time while I can see Chris quickly going up but then ultimately hitting a bump in the road. We are talking of RCA here they've been lazy before I'd imagine it'll happen again see I'm just saying I can see Kellie and Scotty holding on for a long time just like I'd imagine EYB new one Jana Kramer and Dan + Shay holding on for a long time. My point is that I can foresee Chris Young having a quick run up the charts but RCA once again lacking the final push factor where as for Kellie I'd imagine Black River will stick with her song for awhile like Kelsea Ballerini. I see both ladies and Scotty having long runs with songs that'll take their time and could be more remembered that's where I'm getting at. I also think Chris could get caught in the web in the 30s early on. Cole Swindells Let Me See Ya Girl is already slowed down a considerable amount and I think Cole has more momentum than Chris. But hey what do I know. The difference is that is a fourth single from an album where this is a brand new single from an artist who is coming off an era that was very solid. I agree this is going to be huge, and by early sales figures, probably one of if not the biggest career of his career.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2015 9:42:33 GMT -5
Ok no what I'm suggesting is looking at all the future releases I can see Kellie and Scotty holding on for a long time while I can see Chris quickly going up but then ultimately hitting a bump in the road. We are talking of RCA here they've been lazy before I'd imagine it'll happen again see I'm just saying I can see Kellie and Scotty holding on for a long time just like I'd imagine EYB new one Jana Kramer and Dan + Shay holding on for a long time. My point is that I can foresee Chris Young having a quick run up the charts but RCA once again lacking the final push factor where as for Kellie I'd imagine Black River will stick with her song for awhile like Kelsea Ballerini. I see both ladies and Scotty having long runs with songs that'll take their time and could be more remembered that's where I'm getting at. I also think Chris could get caught in the web in the 30s early on. Cole Swindells Let Me See Ya Girl is already slowed down a considerable amount and I think Cole has more momentum than Chris. But hey what do I know. The difference is that is a fourth single from an album where this is a brand new single from an artist who is coming off an era that was very solid. I agree this is going to be huge, and by early sales figures, probably one of if not the biggest career of his career. Understood but Cole has more momentum and it's definitely more radio friendly I just think there's a chance Chris gets caught somewhere and trips up takes his time and them BAM! He misses the top. Thank you for replying I love your posts
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2015 9:44:03 GMT -5
Debuts in the top 10 (at #8) of the Hot Country chart and already at #57 on the Hot 100, just from digital sales. I'd say it'll be pretty big.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 21, 2015 12:21:26 GMT -5
I'm fairly confident this one will be big hit. Chris has only had one single miss the top 5 in nearly seven years ("Neon") and that one was really traditional by today's standards. Radio does not ignore an artist who has had his track record and with the sales this song is accomplishing with little to no airplay thus far. "I'm Comin' Over" currently sits at #6 on the Country iTunes Chart, which is pretty darn impressive for Chris since I don't consider him a superstar, yet.
The qualms about RCA and their track record are understandable but they're still a label any artist would kill to be on and have a great promotional department. Chris' song will be far up the MB and Billboard chart by the time Kellie and/or Scotty's singles chart and there can be other "stars" charting at the same time with Chris being okay in the end. I'm not saying this will be one of the biggest hits of the year (certainly possible) but the signs are all there for "I'm Comin' Over" to be successful. Also, a song that peaks at #2 or #3 (especially if it sells well) is still a big hit. Somewhere along the way we've seem to think that if a song doesn't go #1 that it's not so much a failure but a disappointment, which is just not the case. If a single gets that high, millions upon millions of fans hear it and I can assure you that the average fan couldn't tell you where their favorite songs peaked if their lives depended on it.
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2015 12:37:08 GMT -5
I'm fairly confident this one will be big hit. Chris has only had one single miss the top 5 in nearly seven years ("Neon") and that one was really traditional by today's standards. Radio does not ignore an artist who has had his track record and with the sales this song is accomplishing with little to no airplay thus far. "I'm Comin' Over" currently sits at #6 on the Country iTunes Chart, which is pretty darn impressive for Chris since I don't consider him a superstar, yet. The qualms about RCA and their track record are understandable but they're still a label any artist would kill to be on and have a great promotional department. Chris' song will be far up the MB and Billboard chart by the time Kellie and/or Scotty's singles chart and there can be other "stars" charting at the same time with Chris being okay in the end. I'm not saying this will be one of the biggest hits of the year (certainly possible) but the signs are all there for "I'm Comin' Over" to be successful. Also, a song that peaks at #2 or #3 (especially if it sells well) is still a big hit. Somewhere along the way we've seem to think that if a song doesn't go #1 that it's not so much a failure but a disappointment, which is just not the case. If a single gets that high, millions upon millions of fans hear it and I can assure you that the average fan couldn't tell you where their favorite songs peaked if their lives depended on it. See I'm not convinced. I think this'll drop in sales the hype I think will wear off soon in sales and go to middling results but that's just me.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on May 25, 2015 22:13:37 GMT -5
I spent an inordinate amount of time trying to find "I'm Comin' Over" on the weekly airplay charts last week until realizing that it hadn't charted on Billboard's Country Airplay chart or the Mediabase chart. And based on the Billboard's chart highlights, "I'm Comin' Over" didn't debut on the Billboard Country Airplay chart this week, either. So "I'm Comin' Over" managed to debut with 71K copies sold without any kind of pre-arranged hourly airplay from Clear Channel, minimal airplay for its debut week, no video, and no televised performance? Compare that to "Aw Naw," which opened with 27K, and consider that Chris Young isn't exactly coming off his previous album cycle with a ton of sales momentum, and this is both a surprising and impressive result. Moreover, "I'm Comin' Over"'s 71K topped the 50K opening week of Miranda Lambert's "Automatic" (from last February) and the 28K opening week of Blake Shelton's "Neon Light" (from last August) -- both Miranda and Blake are considerably bigger names and had the benefit of major radio support (including Clear Channel hourly debuts) during their respective debut weeks. On the other hand...why hasn't "I'm Comin' Over" debuted on the Billboard Country Airplay chart already? Even if it hasn't officially been sent to radio (which I find hard to believe since it is going for adds tomorrow), I'm surprised that it didn't pick up enough play to chart in the past couple of weeks. Considering the relatively recent success of "Who Am I With You?" and "Lonely Eyes" at radio, I'm having a hard time imagining that country radio won't also support this as well. Certainly the first week sales should be eye-opening for radio. RCA Nashville is getting ready to debut a new Jake Owen single at radio tomorrow, and I would have thought that they would have preferred to put a little chart space between Chris' new single and Jake's. So I'm a little puzzled here. As for the song itself, I'm with the general consensus here...the song itself is nothing new, and it's far from his best (I don't even like this as much as I liked "Lonely Eyes"), but it's also leagues better than "Aw Naw." The little R&B-ish beat scratch notwithstanding, it's nice to hear some identifiably country instruments in the mix. The response to Chris Young going back to his angsty romantic crooner niche is noteworthy, and perhaps a sign of how much of a mistake it was for him to detour in "bro country" on A.M.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 25, 2015 23:31:27 GMT -5
43dudleyvillas, "I'm Comin' Over" was officially sent to radio on May 11th ( here). I'm not overly surprised this hasn't charted yet, though this week seemed like decent odds since this song has sold incredibly well thus far but the audience threshold is still pretty high on Billboard's Airplay and that's likely the reason Chris hasn't made an early chart debut yet.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on May 26, 2015 8:37:28 GMT -5
43dudleyvillas, "I'm Comin' Over" was officially sent to radio on May 11th ( here). I'm not overly surprised this hasn't charted yet, though this week seemed like decent odds since this song has sold incredibly well thus far but the audience threshold is still pretty high on Billboard's Airplay and that's likely the reason Chris hasn't made an early chart debut yet. Thanks for the confirmation on when "I'm Comin' Over" was sent to radio. Now that you mention it, I remember ads in either Aircheck or BCU saying the single was available "for immediate airplay." You're obviously right about the high audience threshold at Billboard, but I still find it strange that in two weeks of availability (admittedly including a week with two high-profile debuts that did have pre-arranged airplay), "I'm Comin' Over" hasn't been able to muster at least 1.5 million in audience in a week. As dm2081 noted, Chris Young is a solid B-lister at country radio. I'm looking at the second weeks of the new singles from Thomas Rhett and Brett Eldredge, who are newer than Chris but arguably radio B-listers themselves -- "Crash & Burn" was #44 with 2.9 million in Billboard audience in its second week and "Lose My Mind" was at #37 with nearly 5 million in Billboard audience in its second week. The difference appears to be that both "Crash & Burn" and "Lose My Mind" had pre-arranged week one airplay that guaranteed each song a place on a number of station playlists -- places that they didn't lose the following week. And that seems noteworthy in and of itself -- singles that don't force their way onto station playlists via pre-arranged hourly debuts may get off to slower starts at radio, even if there is evidence of considerably more market interest ("Crash & Burn" opened with 40K in first week sales while "Lose My Mind" opened with 21K in first week sales, compared to "I'm Comin' Over"'s 71K). The first two weeks of this song's run probably won't matter in the long run, but the early fortunes of this song versus those of "Crash & Burn" and "Lose My Mind" may give us a hint about the halo effect that comes from pre-negotiated/pre-arranged airplay and the opportunity cost of going for a more natural debut/radio run.
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kirkw
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Post by kirkw on May 26, 2015 10:21:33 GMT -5
I'll bet nearly everything I have this record moves it's way up in steady fashion once it gets going with a good amount of adds today. It will be as big a hit as Chris has had.
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2015 13:08:32 GMT -5
Someone tell me how Hunter Hayes and Jake Owen got hourly airplay deals 2 and 1 (respectively) weeks before their adds date but Chris Young got no deal at all?
I echo the sentiments at how phenomenal it is to have sold nearly 100k for this song with NO airplay, NO video, and NO promotion. This should be a massive hit.
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Kat5Kind
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Post by Kat5Kind on May 26, 2015 16:04:03 GMT -5
Someone tell me how Hunter Hayes and Jake Owen got hourly airplay deals 2 and 1 (respectively) weeks before their adds date but Chris Young got no deal at all? I echo the sentiments at how phenomenal it is to have sold nearly 100k for this song with NO airplay, NO video, and NO promotion. This should be a massive hit. They're bigger names & I think radio was just ready for new Hunter music.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 26, 2015 16:11:11 GMT -5
"I'm Comin' Over" is the second most added song on MB this week with 39 adds.
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2015 16:15:17 GMT -5
Someone tell me how Hunter Hayes and Jake Owen got hourly airplay deals 2 and 1 (respectively) weeks before their adds date but Chris Young got no deal at all? I echo the sentiments at how phenomenal it is to have sold nearly 100k for this song with NO airplay, NO video, and NO promotion. This should be a massive hit. They're bigger names & I think radio was just ready for new Hunter music. If anything and I know you're a fan of him I think Chris is more known than Hunter. Hunter lost a lot of momentum with Invisible and Tattoo. Then look at Chris Young he had Aw Naw a Top 5 Who I Am With You a Top 3. Lonely Eyes was also a good sized hit. I think Hunter deserved the boost he gotten. I mean no harm .
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on May 26, 2015 16:20:30 GMT -5
They're bigger names & I think radio was just ready for new Hunter music. If anything and I know you're a fan of him I think Chris is more known than Hunter. Hunter lost a lot of momentum with Invisible and Tattoo. Then look at Chris Young he had Aw Naw a Top 5 Who I Am With You a Top 3. Lonely Eyes was also a good sized hit. I think Hunter deserved the boost he gotten. I mean no harm . As great as CY is, and he is, He hasn't had singles sell the way HH has nor has he had an album go platinum. Both Jake Owen and Hunter have had bigger hits on radio than CY (though it's close). I think CY's team may have decided against those "Deals" or lost out to them and Luke.
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2015 16:23:51 GMT -5
If anything and I know you're a fan of him I think Chris is more known than Hunter. Hunter lost a lot of momentum with Invisible and Tattoo. Then look at Chris Young he had Aw Naw a Top 5 Who I Am With You a Top 3. Lonely Eyes was also a good sized hit. I think Hunter deserved the boost he gotten. I mean no harm . As great as CY is, and he is, He hasn't had singles sell the way HH has nor has he had an album go platinum. Both Jake Owen and Hunter have had bigger hits on radio than CY (though it's close). I think CY's team may have decided against those "Deals" or lost out to them and Luke. But look at how well Tattoo sold and heck after the hype for Invisible it didn't do much. Chris last year stayed consistent and each of his songs sold pretty well. I just don't see Hunter deserving this deal.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on May 26, 2015 16:26:29 GMT -5
As great as CY is, and he is, He hasn't had singles sell the way HH has nor has he had an album go platinum. Both Jake Owen and Hunter have had bigger hits on radio than CY (though it's close). I think CY's team may have decided against those "Deals" or lost out to them and Luke. But look at how well Tattoo sold and heck after the hype for Invisible it didn't do much. Chris last year stayed consistent and each of his songs sold pretty well. I just don't see Hunter deserving this deal. Invisible sold Gold and was Grammy-nominated. I think that's more than enough for iHeartRadio to give HH the hourly deal. In the end, it won't matter at all. They gave the same deal for Invisible. It'll be up to radio and fans to get the song to #1 and that may never happen while CY's song could and should very well get there.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 26, 2015 16:33:12 GMT -5
Hourly deals, while they can be beneficial, can also cause some harm to those songs that get them. I actually wouldn't put it past RCA and Chris to decline the hourly treatment in this case. Songs that go up the chart naturally like "I'm Comin' Over" will be doing, end up being huge #1 hits all the time. Radio loves Chris, and judging by the 39 first week adds, with both Luke and labelmate Jake as competition, that's pretty darn good. This song has been selling great so far and the early response from radio and the buyers to me are enough to remain optimistic about this song's future.
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2015 16:33:45 GMT -5
I will say this so we can end the discussion I do wish the best for all the songs.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on May 26, 2015 16:35:19 GMT -5
I would disagree that Hunter Hayes is bigger than Chris Young. "Wanted" was a very big hit, but I don't think any of his other hits are on the same level as "Gettin' You Home," "The Man I Want to Be," "Tomorrow," and "You," and CY was riding off a pretty successful era (three Top 5 hits), while HH was coming off a sophomore slump. I don't like those deals particularly well anyway and I think they sometimes do more harm than good for certain songs (like "Drunk Americans" for example), so idc if Hunter got it over Chris, but I disagree that Hunter is the bigger star of the two. One crossover hit that helped drive him to Platinum album sales certainly didn't stop his last era from flopping at radio and in sales, so I think it's pretty obvious Chris Young has the edge on Hunter Hayes, imo.
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Kari
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Post by Kari on May 26, 2015 17:18:29 GMT -5
MOST ADDED via today's Country Aircheck with 59.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 26, 2015 17:25:46 GMT -5
MOST ADDED via today's Country Aircheck with 59. Hmm, All Access must be have not had their final update yet then, which is really strange since it's past 6:00 p.m on the east coast. This usually happens on Tuesdays instead of the usual Mondays. 59 adds is very good and I trust Aircheck more since All Access has given me problems before.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on May 26, 2015 17:28:16 GMT -5
I would disagree that Hunter Hayes is bigger than Chris Young. "Wanted" was a very big hit, but I don't think any of his other hits are on the same level as "Gettin' You Home," "The Man I Want to Be," "Tomorrow," and "You," and CY was riding off a pretty successful era (three Top 5 hits), while HH was coming off a sophomore slump. I don't like those deals particularly well anyway and I think they sometimes do more harm than good for certain songs (like "Drunk Americans" for example), so idc if Hunter got it over Chris, but I disagree that Hunter is the bigger star of the two. One crossover hit that helped drive him to Platinum album sales certainly didn't stop his last era from flopping at radio and in sales, so I think it's pretty obvious Chris Young has the edge on Hunter Hayes, imo. In the grand scheme, sure. But getting fans to listen excitedly that first day, I think iHeartRadio thinks HH is the bigger star, or the more recognizable star to people outside of the genre. But if you look at sales for this compared to where HH's song will land, it won't be close. If HH does 30k with his just-released single, I'd be shocked. That big number from CY is amazing and proof that his audience is ready for him to be a big superstar and I think this song is going to be the one to get him there. It should also help him get male vocalist noms (ACM's would likely be the start of that). We'll see though.
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Kari
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Post by Kari on May 26, 2015 17:33:35 GMT -5
Interesting. Country Aircheck is reporting 39 on a different email I just received. Luke Bryan had more at 105. Chris was 39 with 52 Historic adds.
The banner I was reading from earlier via Chris Young's Team says this " Thank you Country Radio. I'm Comin Over MOST ADDED 59 first week stations."
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 26, 2015 17:38:22 GMT -5
Interesting. Country Aircheck is reporting 39 on a different email I just received. Luke Bryan had more at 105. Chris was 39 with 52 Historic adds. The banner I was reading from earlier via Chris Young's Team says this " Thank you Country Radio. I'm Comin Over MOST ADDED 59 first week stations." That's odd. "I'm Comin' Over" had 13 adds before this week, which would put Chris' song at 52 total stations with 39 coming on impact day. I went to HITS DD's website and they also had Chris at 39 adds this week. I definitely now think that "I'm Comin' Over's" total stations is in fact 59 (perhaps 7 stations not accounted for at All Access, vs. the banner in Aircheck) and 39 was the right number for his official impact date. :) Edit: Confirmed to be 59 "total station" in Aircheck this evening.
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