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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2016 16:41:43 GMT -5
Kelsea Ballerini "Dibs" lands at #10 at the end of this week on MB so Kelsea has her second straight Top 10. I do think "Dibs" can hit the top of the chart as long as Keith Urban doesn't become a hassle to deal with cause "Break On Me" has catched up a lot of ground so we will see if Keith causes a problem down the road for "Dibs". Congrats to Kelsea for picking up her second straight second Top 10 and let's see what the rest of "Dibs" chart run brings.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2016 21:19:58 GMT -5
Took a thorough listen to this for the first time recently. It sounds almost exactly like the format of LMLYMI in some places. Still, good song though.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Jan 14, 2016 16:01:51 GMT -5
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zaclord 🌈
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Post by zaclord 🌈 on Jan 14, 2016 20:06:25 GMT -5
I'm fine with "XO" as the next single as long as "Peter Pan" comes 4th. Although, there really isn't a bad song on the album, and not but one or two that I'd be upset with for single choices - I just think "Peter Pan" is a masterpiece.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 14, 2016 20:16:54 GMT -5
Maybe, but I still think "Peter Pan" is next. Black River's mission with Kelsea is simple -- put her in every spotlight possible. They're attempting to brand her as Country's newest, hottest female artist and she's had a brutally tough performance and appearance schedule the past year. "Dibs" has been out for quite a while but it's still about 5-6 weeks away from peaking, so perhaps they just wanted to perform another upbeat song from the album (for what it's worth, Meyes never said her "new" or "next" single, though like I said, it's still too early for that language with "Dibs" having not peaked yet).
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jan 15, 2016 1:05:02 GMT -5
What zaclord 🌈 said; there's no shortage of good options for singles on this album! I do want "Peter Pan" next though as that and "Stilettos" are my two favorites from the album, and I think going with something different from the first two releases would be good for her. "XO" wouldn't be totally similar but I do think a more ballad-leaning song would be a very good idea after two uptempo ditties, especially since songs like "Peter Pan" and "The First Time" sound like the type that have the chance to really connect with an audience and potentially be big sellers. ETA: Oh and thanks for sharing that video bigfan101! I enjoyed her performance and I loooooved what she was wearing! It was also just fun that she did a different song than expected (assuming "XO" stays an album track, anyway).
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Jan 15, 2016 3:31:21 GMT -5
Maybe, but I still think "Peter Pan" is next. Black River's mission with Kelsea is simple -- put her in every spotlight possible. They're attempting to brand her as Country's newest, hottest female artist and she's had a brutally tough performance and appearance schedule the past year. "Dibs" has been out for quite a while but it's still about 5-6 weeks away from peaking, so perhaps they just wanted to perform another upbeat song from the album (for what it's worth, Meyes never said her "new" or "next" single, though like I said, it's still too early for that language with "Dibs" having not peaked yet). Also don't forget that she performed "Dibs" on Good Morning America Wednesday morning, so it made sense to change it up for her performance Wednesday night.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 25, 2016 19:09:38 GMT -5
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g8erboi
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Post by g8erboi on Jan 28, 2016 13:27:56 GMT -5
Did the push for number one start?! Kelsea had some pretty huge gains today.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 28, 2016 13:31:10 GMT -5
Did the push for number one start?! Kelsea had some pretty huge gains today. No. Kelsea's gains were normal for a song getting converted to heavy rotation. She's still over 2000 spins and 16 million in audience behind "Stay A Little Longer", lol. The push is not this week.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2016 14:35:29 GMT -5
Did the push for number one start?! Kelsea had some pretty huge gains today. No. Kelsea's gains were normal for a song getting converted to heavy rotation. She's still over 2000 spins and 16 million in audience behind "Stay A Little Longer", lol. The push is not this week. I agree that "Dibs" is getting converted to heavy rotation on more and more stations, but a gain of almost 1.4 million is quite a bit bigger than what I'd call a "normal" daily gain. I don't think it's any sort of big push, though. It's most likely just several stations giving this more conversions and more daytime spins all at the same time, resulting in an unusually big daily gain. She could have gotten a boost on a syndicated show or two, and there's always Westwood One airplay as well. I expect Kelsea to jump 9-6 on Monday's Billboard chart; she'll re-pass Keith Urban, LoCash will drop below, and Jason Aldean will go recurrent. While I'm glad to see a new female artist score back-to-back hits, I must point out that "Dibs" hasn't moved the needle all that much. It's sold quite a bit better than Jason Aldean's "Gonna Know We Were Here" and its sales have been on par with or just a bit below those of Granger Smith's "Backroad Song" and just a bit above those of Randy Houser's "We Went", but otherwise nearly all other current and recent top 10 and top 20 songs have had better sales than "Dibs" has. The obvious exceptions are Brad Paisley's "Country Nation" and Chase Bryant's "Little Bit Of You", both of which have had very poor sales. I guess there are quite a few A-listers and B-listers in the top 20 right now, but even with all of those things considered, I still think Kelsea's performance has been somewhat below average on the sales front. "Dibs" has been a decent-sized hit though and it's only natural that it wouldn't be as big as the lead single, but hopefully her next single can make a bit more of an impact.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 28, 2016 16:09:10 GMT -5
No. Kelsea's gains were normal for a song getting converted to heavy rotation. She's still over 2000 spins and 16 million in audience behind "Stay A Little Longer", lol. The push is not this week. I agree that "Dibs" is getting converted to heavy rotation on more and more stations, but a gain of almost 1.4 million is quite a bit bigger than what I'd call a "normal" daily gain. I don't think it's any sort of big push, though. It's most likely just several stations giving this more conversions and more daytime spins all at the same time, resulting in an unusually big daily gain. She could have gotten a boost on a syndicated show or two, and there's always Westwood One airplay as well. I expect Kelsea to jump 9-6 on Monday's Billboard chart; she'll re-pass Keith Urban, LoCash will drop below, and Jason Aldean will go recurrent. While I'm glad to see a new female artist score back-to-back hits, I must point out that "Dibs" hasn't moved the needle all that much. It's sold quite a bit better than Jason Aldean's "Gonna Know We Were Here" and its sales have been on par with or just a bit below those of Granger Smith's "Backroad Song" and just a bit above those of Randy Houser's "We Went", but otherwise nearly all other current and recent top 10 and top 20 songs have had better sales than "Dibs" has. The obvious exceptions are Brad Paisley's "Country Nation" and Chase Bryant's "Little Bit Of You", both of which have had very poor sales. I guess there are quite a few A-listers and B-listers in the top 20 right now, but even with all of those things considered, I still think Kelsea's performance has been somewhat below average on the sales front. "Dibs" has been a decent-sized hit though and it's only natural that it wouldn't be as big as the lead single, but hopefully her next single can make a bit more of an impact. My bad; I was somehow looking at the January 27th update (I'm tired more often these days, lol). Yes, that's definitely more than a "normal gain." It's still not the push week yet, which is what g8erboi was asking. I'm expecting at least 1/3rd of that audience gain to be from W1 and/or another large audience station on the panel (which would translate to Billboard as well). I agree that "Dibs" has moved the needle much -- in fact, I think many here would agree with that assessment. The song always struck me as the kind of song that was a guaranteed radio hit, but unlikely to build on Kelsea's overall momentum since the song was so much similar to "Love Me Like You Mean It." I don't think Kelsea will be treated like FGL or other male artists, where they'll just accept fluffy, upbeat fare with open-arms release after release -- I think she will need a high-impact single like "Peter Pan" (which is the next single). I doubt "Peter Pan" will be a "game-changer" but she would be wise to take a break from the "Dibs'" of the world for single #3.
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cufan7
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Post by cufan7 on Jan 31, 2016 12:00:12 GMT -5
I want "Peter Pan" and "The First Time" as singles.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 31, 2016 12:23:23 GMT -5
I want "Peter Pan" and "The First Time" as singles. "Peter Pan" is the next single but if I had to predict, we'll get just three singles from her debut album (there's absolutely no chance they'll release "Peter Pan" and "The First Time" back-to-back anyway).
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tryexp
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Post by tryexp on Jan 31, 2016 14:26:04 GMT -5
I want "Peter Pan" and "The First Time" as singles. "Peter Pan" is the next single but if I had to predict, we'll get just three singles from her debut album (there's absolutely no chance they'll release "Peter Pan" and "The First Time" back-to-back anyway). Assuming they release Peter Pan in March that means we might get a new album this year? Or do you think they will wait a few months before announcing the next release?
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 31, 2016 14:33:37 GMT -5
"Peter Pan" is the next single but if I had to predict, we'll get just three singles from her debut album (there's absolutely no chance they'll release "Peter Pan" and "The First Time" back-to-back anyway). Assuming they release Peter Pan in March that means we might get a new album this year? Or do you think they will wait a few months before announcing the next release? If "Peter Pan" gets released in March, we're likely looking at that song peaking sometime in the Fall of 2016...so that would mean a lead single (assuming they'll be done with The First Time) will be released in Q1 of 2017, if I had to guess, which would mean a sophomore album released that same year (2017). This is all assuming "Peter Pan" is a hit and that no other singles come from this album (which I still think will be the case). There's still many dominoes that have to fall before we get that far, though.
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tryexp
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Post by tryexp on Jan 31, 2016 14:42:37 GMT -5
Assuming they release Peter Pan in March that means we might get a new album this year? Or do you think they will wait a few months before announcing the next release? If "Peter Pan" gets released in March, we're likely looking at that song peaking sometime in the Fall of 2016...so that would mean a lead single (assuming they'll be done with The First Time) will be released in Q1 of 2017, if I had to guess, which would mean a sophomore album released that same year (2017). This is all assuming "Peter Pan" is a hit and that no other singles come from this album (which I still think will be the case). There's still many dominoes that have to fall before we get that far, though. Thanks, I keep forgetting it takes ages for singles to climb. I just checked for Dibs and I was off the mark for several months (I thought it had been released last September).
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Post by musicofmyheart on Jan 31, 2016 18:39:37 GMT -5
Next single aside, interested in hearing your thoughts on likelihood of Dibs becoming Kelsea's second #1.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 31, 2016 19:26:04 GMT -5
Next single aside, interested in hearing your thoughts on likelihood of Dibs becoming Kelsea's second #1. I think Kelsea's got a good shot for the Mediabase #1 since "Dibs" is far enough ahead of "Break On Me" (600 spins and 2.5 million in audience) but "Break On Me" was ahead (albeit, slightly) of "Dibs" on Billboard last Monday and I'm not optimistic of Kelsea getting #1 on both charts. Luke will likely be #1 for at least one more week and then Granger will get to #1 since there's absolutely nobody within' shouting distance of him. Then we'll have "Dibs"/"Break On Me"/"We Went"/"Heartbeat". There's likely to be some stiff competition by the time "Dibs" goes for #1, so I can't forecast what will exactly happen -- it's just too far out. Her chances of claiming #1 on both charts are less likely than it was when "Love Me Like You Mean It" peaked.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Jan 31, 2016 19:40:13 GMT -5
Next single aside, interested in hearing your thoughts on likelihood of Dibs becoming Kelsea's second #1. I think Kelsea's got a good shot for the Mediabase #1 since "Dibs" is far enough ahead of "Break On Me" (600 spins and 2.5 million in audience) but "Break On Me" was ahead (albeit, slightly) of "Dibs" on Billboard last Monday and I'm not optimistic of Kelsea getting #1 on both charts. Luke will likely be #1 for at least one more week and then Granger will get to #1 since there's absolutely nobody within' shouting distance of him. Then we'll have "Dibs"/"Break On Me"/"We Went"/"Heartbeat". There's likely to be some stiff competition by the time "Dibs" goes for #1, so I can't forecast what will exactly happen -- it's just too far out. Her chances of claiming #1 on both charts are less likely than it was when "Love Me Like You Mean It" peaked. But we also can't forget about the crazy Black River push they were able to pull off last time. If they can do that again, nothing is out of the question,
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2016 19:50:17 GMT -5
I think Kelsea's got a good shot for the Mediabase #1 since "Dibs" is far enough ahead of "Break On Me" (600 spins and 2.5 million in audience) but "Break On Me" was ahead (albeit, slightly) of "Dibs" on Billboard last Monday and I'm not optimistic of Kelsea getting #1 on both charts. Luke will likely be #1 for at least one more week and then Granger will get to #1 since there's absolutely nobody within' shouting distance of him. Then we'll have "Dibs"/"Break On Me"/"We Went"/"Heartbeat". There's likely to be some stiff competition by the time "Dibs" goes for #1, so I can't forecast what will exactly happen -- it's just too far out. Her chances of claiming #1 on both charts are less likely than it was when "Love Me Like You Mean It" peaked. But we also can't forget about the crazy Black River push they were able to pull off last time. If they can do that again, nothing is out of the question, I think that was Black River just showing off more than anything. I'm thinking the next two weeks will indicate what will happen with the 4 songs sabre14 pointed out. Keith Urban and Carrie Underwood seem the most likely to hit the top with Carrie especially seem to be good to hit the top of the chart. As long as Kelsea doesn't have Carrie Underwood knocking I think Kelsea Ballerini will hit the top.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 31, 2016 19:53:40 GMT -5
I think Kelsea's got a good shot for the Mediabase #1 since "Dibs" is far enough ahead of "Break On Me" (600 spins and 2.5 million in audience) but "Break On Me" was ahead (albeit, slightly) of "Dibs" on Billboard last Monday and I'm not optimistic of Kelsea getting #1 on both charts. Luke will likely be #1 for at least one more week and then Granger will get to #1 since there's absolutely nobody within' shouting distance of him. Then we'll have "Dibs"/"Break On Me"/"We Went"/"Heartbeat". There's likely to be some stiff competition by the time "Dibs" goes for #1, so I can't forecast what will exactly happen -- it's just too far out. Her chances of claiming #1 on both charts are less likely than it was when "Love Me Like You Mean It" peaked. But we also can't forget about the crazy Black River push they were able to pull off last time. If they can do that again, nothing is out of the question, That was aided by Warner Music (and Sony for that matter) letting Black River have the #1 in mid June last year. The numbers Black River put up were astronomical, no doubt, but it really wasn't necessary by the end of the week Kelsea reached #1 -- for instance, 'Love Me Like You Mean It" put up 134 spins gained, yet Black River was 800 spins and 5.0 million in audience clear of "Sangria." It was also a momentous achievement at the time, so I do think that was just Kerr and Pegula flexing some muscle. I'm sure we'll see a #1 push that will look similar to the pushes we've seen from many labels the past few years but that doesn't mean they'll get #1 on both charts -- the Mediabase pushes happen quite often. There's just too many different variables from this circumstance vs. "Love Me Like You Mean It's" circumstance.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jan 31, 2016 20:00:40 GMT -5
Necessary or not, the push for LMLYMI shows that Kelsea's label is perfectly capable of manipulating the chart with the best of them and if they want the #1 on both charts, they definitely have the resources to make it happen (and since Kelsea is their only successful radio act thus far, I can't seem them not going all-in for "Dibs"). She (in part) beat out Carrie Underwood for a #1 last time, so regardless of who or what gets in her way as she approaches the top, I don't think we can count her/Black River out, and I'm personally predicting a #1 on both charts for this one. Even if she doesn't though, a Top 2 peak seems pretty guaranteed to me though.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2016 22:19:07 GMT -5
I will be disgusted if Black River does a LMLYMI style push. Regardless of quality that is crappy too gain that much in audience. If it's meant to be that "Dibs" won't be a #1 then so freaking be it. I hate labels manipulating the chart it honestly males me sick that's why I hated seeing "Love You Like That" as a BB #1. I really hope that Sony or Keith Urban's label don't play nice with Kelsea and we see a battle at the top with some not hitting the top. That's my preference on how this should go. Also I want "Peter Pan" on radio like now please!!!
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Feb 1, 2016 22:00:07 GMT -5
No. Kelsea's gains were normal for a song getting converted to heavy rotation. She's still over 2000 spins and 16 million in audience behind "Stay A Little Longer", lol. The push is not this week. I agree that "Dibs" is getting converted to heavy rotation on more and more stations, but a gain of almost 1.4 million is quite a bit bigger than what I'd call a "normal" daily gain. I don't think it's any sort of big push, though. It's most likely just several stations giving this more conversions and more daytime spins all at the same time, resulting in an unusually big daily gain. She could have gotten a boost on a syndicated show or two, and there's always Westwood One airplay as well. I expect Kelsea to jump 9-6 on Monday's Billboard chart; she'll re-pass Keith Urban, LoCash will drop below, and Jason Aldean will go recurrent. While I'm glad to see a new female artist score back-to-back hits, I must point out that "Dibs" hasn't moved the needle all that much. It's sold quite a bit better than Jason Aldean's "Gonna Know We Were Here" and its sales have been on par with or just a bit below those of Granger Smith's "Backroad Song" and just a bit above those of Randy Houser's "We Went", but otherwise nearly all other current and recent top 10 and top 20 songs have had better sales than "Dibs" has. The obvious exceptions are Brad Paisley's "Country Nation" and Chase Bryant's "Little Bit Of You", both of which have had very poor sales. I guess there are quite a few A-listers and B-listers in the top 20 right now, but even with all of those things considered, I still think Kelsea's performance has been somewhat below average on the sales front. "Dibs" has been a decent-sized hit though and it's only natural that it wouldn't be as big as the lead single, but hopefully her next single can make a bit more of an impact. jhomes87, you were right, Kelsea is #6 this week on both Mediabase and Billboard Country Airplay.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Feb 2, 2016 9:37:32 GMT -5
With this week's chart, I don't think there is anyway Kelsea misses the top on both Billboard and Mediabase with this. She was the greatest gainer on Billboard and put a nice gap between her and Keith Urban.
The next three weeks should go another week on top for Luke & Karen, then one week each for Granger and Kelsea, followed by either Keith or Carrie (but lets be honest it will probably be Keith cause Carrie's label has forgotten how to get her to no.1) ;)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2016 9:38:49 GMT -5
Rises to #66 on the Hot 100.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2016 23:57:41 GMT -5
I think it's pretty telling that we didn't see any "power up for #1" ads for Kelsea in either Billboard or Country Aircheck on Tuesday night. Furthermore, while there was a "thank you" ad from Wheelhouse Records and Granger Smith's wife (that's a new tactic), it didn't exactly make it sound like they were done with "Backroad Song". Obviously the song has been decreasing in both spins and audience this week, but Granger's lead over Kelsea is still pretty substantial. I think Black River was anticipating that Granger's team would try to hang on to #1, hence their decision to not put out a "going for #1" ad (if they couldn't get ahead of Granger this week, they would obviously want to save the "going for #1" ad for next week).
However, with the gap between Granger and Kelsea closing somewhat, I definitely think it's possible that Black River could put up big enough numbers this weekend to get "Dibs" to #1 on both charts. There was a swing of almost 240 spins between the 2 songs in today's update alone (-120 for Granger, +113 for Kelsea), and the swing in audience was more than 1.1 million. Granger still leads in Mediabase audience by about 6.4 million, but if he starts losing just a bit more (closer to 1 million a day) and if Kelsea starts gaining 600-900k a day or more, then there's definitely a chance that she could pass him just before the tracking week ends for both MB and BB.
I don't particularly care for "Dibs" or "Backroad Song", but it's clear that one of them will finish this week at #1, and I'd much rather have it be Kelsea, if only for the fact that "Backroad Song" does not feel like a 2-week #1, let alone a single-week #1. Kelsea does co-host Lon Helton's countdown this weekend, which I think means that Black River was planning on a #1 push next week (since Sunday the 21st, when Kelsea will be on Lon's show, counts toward the next Mediabase tracking week, and not the current tracking week), but if they think they have a chance to get to the top by this coming Sunday/Monday already, I think they'll take it. Maybe that means that they would try to stretch "Dibs" into a 2-week #1 (rather than Wheelhouse stretching "Backroad Song" into a 2-week #1), but I think Carrie is close enough to Kelsea that maybe Arista Nashville would try to get "Heartbeat" to #1 on Sunday the 28th/Monday the 29th, if Kelsea does in fact get to #1 at the end of this week.
Or it could go down a completely different way. We still haven't seen Carrie, Randy, or Keith gain much separation from each other. Once we DO see that, then we'll probably have a better indication of how things will shake out. Kelsea doesn't have to worry about those three though, because she's going to get to #1 before they do.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 19, 2016 0:08:34 GMT -5
I still think "Dibs" is too far away to quite catch "Backroad Song." I agree that Wheelhouse would like to make Granger's song a 2 week #1, so I can't see them losing more than 250-300 spins and 2.0 million in audience from now until Sunday morning. The highest I see Kelsea's numbers getting by Sunday are 8150 spins and 59.0 million in total audience -- I still think that will come up short for Granger.
I'm convinced that Black River is waiting to push 'til next week and perhaps this little surge is just to assure they have gained enough separation from Carrie and Randy -- can't put anything past Sony's thinking these days -- they would also have plenty of room to grow if it ended up that way.
I think Black River's approach is too have hefty gains but nothing massive (as in a clear #1 push) until Sunday, then put the "max spins for #1" ads in Aircheck/Billboard by Monday. If by some chance they can catch Granger, then fine, but they're waiting until next week.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Feb 20, 2016 9:59:39 GMT -5
Can you say the push is on? Holy crap.
Looking like Kelsea might get a two-week No.1 if she can have another day like today tomorrow.
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