The Evolution of Hot AC

[Hot AC Archiver]

There has been some discussion in various threads recently about how Hot AC isn't what it used to be. That's true! Like all formats, Hot AC has evolved over time. Just like CHR is nowhere the same as it was 20 years ago, HAC has changed too.

I thought I would create this thread as a place for discussion and to show examples of the format's evolution. First let's take a look at the top 10 from 21 years ago, 19 August 1994:

1. Can You Feel the Love Tonight - Elton John (9th week at #1)
2. If You Go - Jon Secada
3. Wild Night - John Mellencamp & Meshell Ndegeocello
4. Come to My Window - Melissa Etheridge
5. Beautiful in My Eyes - Joshua Kadison
6. I'll Remember - Madonna
7. You Mean the World to Me - Toni Braxton
8. The Way She Loves Me - Richard Marx
9. Don't Turn Around - Ace of Base
10. Stay (I Missed You) - Lisa Loeb & Nine Stories

You can still see elements of the AC chart here, but there are some pop elements such as Ace of Base

10 years ago, 19 August 2005

1. Behind These Hazel Eyes - Kelly Clarkson (1st week at #1)
2. You and Me - Lifehouse
3. Speed of Sound - Coldplay
4. Lonely No More - Rob Thomas
5. Let Me Go - 3 Doors Down
6. This Is How a Heart Breaks - Rob Thomas
7. Holiday - Green Day
8. Better Now - Collective Soul
9. Boulevard of Broken Dreams - Green Day
10. Breathe (2 am) - Anna Nalick

More of a rock theme here. No rap on the chart. Some poppier elements elsewhere on the chart with "Hollaback Girl" and "Don't Phunk with My Heart" below the top 10.

5 years ago, 22 August 2010

1. California Gurls - Katy Perry f/ Snoop Dogg (8th week at #1)
2. If It's Love - Train
3. Misery - Maroon 5
4. Half of My Heart - John Mayer
5. Mockingbird - Rob Thomas
6. King of Anything - Sara Bareilles
7. September - Daughtry
8. Breakeven - The Script
9. Glitter in the Air - Pink
10. The Only Exception - Paramore

More of the pop influence can be seen, with Katy on top. That song even had rap in it, assuming at least some HAC stations played Snoop's part. Below the top 10, B.o.B. had 2 songs on the chart, and the Enrique Iglesias song featured Pitbull. Even Eminem had a song in the top 40.

This week's chart, 16 August 2015

1. Fight Song - Rachel Platten (3rd week at #1)
2. Photograph - Ed Sheeran
3. Bad Blood - Taylor Swift
4. Shut Up and Dance - Walk the Moon
5. Can't Feel My Face - The Weeknd
6. Honey, I'm Good - Andy Grammer
7. See You Again - Wiz Khalifa f/ Charlie Puth
8. Cheerleader - OMI
9. Uma Thurman - Fall Out Boy
10. Want to Want Me - Jason Derulo

A mix of different types of songs, but less of the pop-rock sound. A rapper in the top 10 (peaked at #2).

Let the discussion begin...

[maine]

Hot AC has been slowly turning into just a smaller version of CHR. Every song in the Top 10 has hit the Top 10 on CHR, and more or less have been peaking around the same area. A lot of what was popular a decade ago is practically gone.

Going back to the last 10 years, most of the core acts from Hot AC have been struggling, even with some of them starting to alter their sound for tried radio success (Daughtry, Nickelback). Old, big core acts like Kelly Clarkson, Lifehouse, 3 Doors Down (they struggle everywhere now really lol), Train, Daughtry, and Nickelback have all had miserable recent eras through Hot AC these past few years or so.

Kelly underperformed with "Heartbeat Song", and "Invisible" couldn't nail Top 10 (not really her fault, more the label's for a lack of push). Lifehouse has gone independent, but Almería did jack when they were on their label, while "Hurricane" did absolutely nothing. Train's 3 singles from Bulletproof Picasso all flopped (rightfully so). Daughtry was interesting case since he completely dropped the pop rock sound they were going with and starting to cater to the pop charts, but all 3 singles from Baptized still flopped ("Waiting For Superman" more underperformed). Nickelback, arguably one of the top bands in Hot AC from 5-10 years ago, had completely fallen face down this era; "What Are You Waiting For?" couldn't even go past Top 30, "She Keeps Me Up" barely hit the Top 40 and fell off rather quickly, and "Satellite" just completely bombed. Even both pop singles from Here and Now underperformed ("Lullaby" missed the Top 10, and I don't even think "When We Stand Together" hit the Top 10 either). 

It'll be interesting to see how other old core acts fare during this year and next. I feel like in the future, Hot AC will just practically turn into a subsidiary of CHR, and not vary in songs from either chart. 

[Deleted]

For the past 20 years, this has been the format where middle class white women go to listen to the radio when they get too old for CHR/Pop but not quite old enough to deal with all the much older tracks that AC plays. The format hasn't changed; the generation listening to it has.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Aug 20, 2015 17:44:46 GMT -5 @jazzysoul47 said:

For the past 20 years, this has been the format where middle class white women go to listen to the radio when they get too old for CHR/Pop but not quite old enough to deal with all the much older tracks that AC plays. The format hasn't changed; the generation listening to it has.

This.

Hot AC has always been an extension of CHR. The way I look at it is, if you look at CHR/Pop 5-10 years ago and see the type of music that was in then, that's more or less what you can expect to see on Hot AC today as currents. The reason why Hot AC was light rock heavy in the early 2000s was because Pop was light rock heavy in the early 90s, but Hot AC has gradually become more open to heavier sounds with hip-hop, for example, because hip-hop was the big thing on pop 5-10 years ago.

[Libra]

Aug 20, 2015 15:49:29 GMT -5 maine said:

Hot AC has been slowly turning into just a smaller version of CHR.

This. Exactly.

From a programming perspective, "Hot" Adult Contemporary is turning into "Adult" Top 40 - effectively, what had been an AC-extension format is now being converted (really, already has been) into a CHR-extension. Simply put, this is the only thing that would explain the piece of the puzzle that is the current chart runs at the format. Whereas in the last decade, songs would have extensively long runs (looking at you, Wherever You Will Go!), now they don't.

I wouldn't know this without checking...but songs will still occasionally approach or even go over 30 weeks here, won't they? Whereas 40 weeks, once semi-common, is now a true aberration these days.

[Hot AC Archiver]

Aug 20, 2015 18:03:56 GMT -5 Libra said:

Aug 20, 2015 15:49:29 GMT -5 maine said:

Hot AC has been slowly turning into just a smaller version of CHR.

This. Exactly.

From a programming perspective, "Hot" Adult Contemporary is turning into "Adult" Top 40 - effectively, what had been an AC-extension format is now being converted (really, already has been) into a CHR-extension. Simply put, this is the only thing that would explain the piece of the puzzle that is the current chart runs at the format. Whereas in the last decade, songs would have extensively long runs (looking at you, Wherever You Will Go!), now they don't.

I wouldn't know this without checking...but songs will still occasionally approach or even go over 30 weeks here, won't they? Whereas 40 weeks, once semi-common, is now a true aberration these days.

I don't have my stats with me right now, but 40 weeks is rare these days. This is due in no small part to the latest recurrent rules (20 weeks/#10). However, I do believe the format is still speeding up some even excluding that rule.

[ben777]

According to AllAccess, for the first time in its history, Hot AC is now a more popular radio format than CHR - whether or not people like the changes, it was definitely a good business move for HAC stations

[musiciscool]

Aug 20, 2015 22:33:28 GMT -5 ben777 said:

According to AllAccess, for the first time in its history, Hot AC is now a more popular radio format than CHR - whether or not people like the changes, it was definitely a good business move for HAC stations

Just thought I would just throw this out there, so, HOT AC was always my favorite radio format and it still is. The music that HOT AC provides is just spectacular.

[Libra]

Aug 20, 2015 22:33:28 GMT -5 ben777 said:

According to AllAccess, for the first time in its history, Hot AC is now a more popular radio format than CHR - whether or not people like the changes, it was definitely a good business move for HAC stations

Based on...what? I'd really like to know how they're drawing that conclusion.

[ben777]

Aug 21, 2015 1:39:16 GMT -5 Libra said:

Aug 20, 2015 22:33:28 GMT -5 ben777 said:

According to AllAccess, for the first time in its history, Hot AC is now a more popular radio format than CHR - whether or not people like the changes, it was definitely a good business move for HAC stations

Based on...what? I'd really like to know how they're drawing that conclusion.

It was based on Neilsen ratings - I think they look at each city and rank the total audience of each format (all stations of that format in that city combined) - not sure if they add up the ratings of each format in all the cities, or if they average them - the article's taken down now, so not sure how to check

[funguy10]

One thing I feel is responsible for Daughtry losing momentum has to do with how the "Outta My Head" era went. Crawling Back to You did perfectly. It went top 10 (although I don't remember it's exact peak). So that set things up greatly. I don't know why the title track was picked as the next single because that just didn't feel like single material. Start of Something Good should've been the 2nd one instead. If things went that way I bet the Baptized era would've gone a lot better. (WFS would've gone top 10 and LLR&R would be single #2).

[musicfanpete]

Ironically, I think we're starting to see a little more pop rock element separating the Hot AC chart and the CHR charts this summer. While most of the top 10 songs do match each chart, songs like "Renegades" and Ex's And Oh's" are both gaining big momentum on the Hot AC charts with both in or closing in towards the top 10 on Hot AC, while still struggling on CHR. While "Renegades" it's supposed to be pushed to CHR this week, I still don't see this doing anywhere near as well on CHR as it is doing on Hot AC.

So while Hot AC is the CHR extension chart as some have eluded to, the Hot AC chart still contains a lot of artists that won't even come anywhere near cracking the CHR chart. And that is a good thing, and hopefully will continue to give Hot AC its own unique identity for years to come.

[Rumors]

It would be great to see HotAC welcome more rock based songs and take the lead in bringing some of this music back to the forefront. I would have liked the new Mumford and Sons to have charted higher on HotAC as an example.

[Doc Indie Party Rock]

I've kinda giving up on HOT AC after seeing how chart favs like Lifehouse, Script, Daughtry and Third Eye Blind failed so bad with thier latest songs. The early 2000s even had some great hard rock songs from Three Days Grace, Shinedown, Theory of A Dead man, Nickelback, ect.. HOT AC used to take chances by breaking out Alt artists who would later crossover to TOP 40. Now it's all backwards. Now HOT AC is just playing it safe with "Renegades" and "Ex's and Oh's" Two songs also blowing up on CHR. What of "Dreams" by Beck for example? Or Florence and The Machine "Ship To Wreck" . Shit back in the day; even "Could Have Been Me" by the Struts woulda done great on HOT AC.Those songs fit the standard HOT AC criteria better than "Cheerleader". That's for sure. Now the fun is all over.The saving grace on that chart for me; now a days would be Echosmith and Walk The Moon, but Walk The Moon wouldn't have gotten anywhere if it weren't for it blowing up on CHR. The sad thing is that HOT AC top 10 looks almost like the CHR top 10. I still believe that if HOT AC keeps evolving this way, the bizz might eliminate the chart all together. I mean; what's the point of it now? It's a miracle it still respects Kelly Clarkson.

[Daryl the Beryl]

Going to bump this to share my opinions on which of the top 50 all-time artists can survive in the current Hot AC climate (i.e. go top 10)

1. Maroon 5 - Definitely. Their last era was huge, even though the last two singles messed it up. Sugar, Animals and Maps still get decent recurrent airplay.
2. Matchbox Twenty - Probably not. Their last era had a top 10 hit, but the last two singles only made the top 20. Plus, Rob Thomas' last two singles only made the top 20 (even though "Trust You" was a departure from his typical sound).
3. Train - See Matchbox Twenty, but again, last era wasn't that good in quality compared to their other work.
4. Nickelback - Active rock band, and rock is dead on Hot AC since 2012. Totally irrelevant to the climate now.
5. P!nk - Yes. Just Give Me a Reason was huge back in 2014, and the prior singles were huge too.
6. Kelly Clarkson - Was going to give a 'maybe', but the Idol version of Piece by Piece has revived her current era...
7. Katy Perry - Probably, especially given her success on pop.
8. The Goo Goo Dolls - No, last era only yielded two top 20 hits. Not relevant to current climate (if there's any saving grace, "Come to Me" sold decently and performed better than "Rebel Beat" in terms of longevity)
9. Daughtry - No. Two eras ago, the lead single went top 10, but it didn't have the impact that their previous singles had. The follow-ups didn't do too well either. The same went for the next era. Doesn't help that "Torches" is moving slowly too, and their recent material is more pop-leaning than their previous work.
10. Taylor Swift - With her transition from country to pop, it's safe to say she'll continue to be a Hot AC staple in the future. Heck, New Romantics is top 10 now.
11. Lifehouse - No. "Between the Raindrops" didn't do too well in 2012-13, and the album flopping also led to them going independent. "Hurricane" also flopped.
12. John Mayer - No. "Shadow Days" underperformed back in 2012 when the climate was more favorable to staples. "Queen of California" did even worse, and not even Katy Perry could help his last single go top 20. He's probably done, especially if he continues to release more country-like singles rather than material like "Your Body is a Wonderland" or "Waiting on the World to Change".
13. Rob Thomas - No, see Matchbox Twenty analysis. Maybe he can comeback if the single is more Matchbox Twenty-like than "Trust You"?
14. OneRepublic - Yes, see Maroon 5.
15. The Fray - No, see Daughtry and Matchbox Twenty. Like MB20, they've stuck to their sound for the most part, so I guess there's a chance they'll go top 10 again?
16. 3 Doors Down - Nope, not relevant to current Hot AC climate either, see Nickelback.
17. Bruno Mars - Definitely
18. Colbie Caillat - Try was a sleeper hit, but the prior single didn't do too well. She may have another hit.
19. Sheryl Crow - Nope, not relevant either.
20. Adele - Absolutely
21. Coldplay - They've released more pop-leaning material recently, and unlike Daughtry, they've got a few more top 10s since then (A Sky Full of Stars and Adventure of a Lifetime). Their current era also has more hype than the last thanks to Superbowl.
22. Avril Lavigne - Nope. Last era flopped, and was worsened by "Hello Kitty".
23. Jewel - Nope, I don't see her doing anything either.
24. Ed Sheeran - Absolutely
25. Alanis Morissette - Nope, not relevant either. She's relegated to AC.
26. Santana - Nope.
27. Sarah McLachlan - Also relegated to AC, so nope
28. Smash Mouth - Not relevant anymore.
29. Sugar Ray - Not relevant anymore.
30. Jason Mraz - Hard to tell. Last era flopped, but it also wasn't well promoted IMO.
31. The Script - Also hard to tell. Their first two eras were huge, then #3 came and Hall of Fame only went top 20. That said, that song was huge on the Hot 100. Their last lead single went top 10 though, so maybe they can have another hit?
32. Sara Bareilles - Probably, since Brave was huge back in 2014. She Used to Be Mine (and her last album) underperformed probably since it was basically songs from a 2007 musical re-recorded and sung by her.
33. Gavin DeGraw - No. Not Over You was huge in 2012, but the later singles didn't do too well The following era didn't do too well either even though the lead single barely missed the top 10, and the greatest hits single flopped.
34. No Doubt - Maybe if they come with good quality music. I mean, Gwen's "Used to Love You" scraped the top 10 (at least on Billboard; it didn't make it till Sunday on MB)
35. Creed - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
36. Imagine Dragons - Yes provided they do well on Alternative.
37. Third Eye Blind - Not relevant anymore
38. Lady Gaga - Probably, provided her next era performs in line or better than the ARTPOP era.
39. Dave Matthews Band - Not relevant to Hot AC anymore, but can still score AAA hits.
40. Green Day - Nope.
41. Fun. - On hiatus, we'll talk when we next hear from them.
42. Phillip Phillips - He fell under the sophomore slump in 2014, so idk. 50/50 chance of him scoring a hit.
43. Celine Dion - Also relegated to AC so nope.
44. Five for Fighting - Nope.
45. Uncle Kracker - IDK, last time we heard from him on Hot AC is in 2011. But I don't think he'll have another huge hit.
46. Vertical Horizon - No, they're done
47. Neon Trees - Maybe. See Imagine Dragons
48. Lenny Kravitz - Nope, not relevant either.
49. Justin Timberlake - Yes.
50. Rihanna - Lol at Rihanna performing well on Hot AC, but if her material is huge on pop, she can hit the top 10.

[Doc Indie Party Rock]

So the final verdict would be why even have the HOT AC chart if its just another extension of a Poptart chart? Just recently mediabase decided to do away with the Rock chart(heritage Chart) or better yet just fuse it with the Active Rock chart. Now you see bands like Def Leppard and Cheap Trick gaining radio exposure once more. I say the HOT AC could easily be taken for the AAA where alot of those irrevevalent artists you mentioned still have a home.

[Daryl the Beryl]

Apr 2, 2016 13:01:22 GMT -5 Doc Indie Party Rock said:

So the final verdict would be why even have the HOT AC chart if its just another extension of a Poptart chart?

Not all the 'irrelevant' artists can score hits on AAA or AC though (Nickelback, 3DD and Creed), and some are way paat their prime and can't even score top 10s or even 20s on any format today. (Sugar Ray, Vertical Horizon, Santana, Third Eye Blind, Smash Mouth, Alanis, potentially Five for Fighting). Hot AC is more so a home for newer artists (Rachel Platten, Lukas Graham, James Bay and several alt to hot ac crossovers) now which peak higher on hac than pop.

[Doc Indie Party Rock]

Apr 3, 2016 3:14:21 GMT -5 Daryl the Beryl said:

Apr 2, 2016 13:01:22 GMT -5 Doc Indie Party Rock said:

So the final verdict would be why even have the HOT AC chart if its just another extension of a Poptart chart?

Not all the 'irrelevant' artists can score hits on AAA or AC though (Nickelback, 3DD and Creed), and some are way paat their prime and can't even score top 10s or even 20s on any format today. (Sugar Ray, Vertical Horizon, Santana, Third Eye Blind, Smash Mouth, Alanis, potentially Five for Fighting). Hot AC is more so a home for newer artists (Rachel Platten, Lukas Graham, James Bay and several alt to hot ac crossovers) now which peak higher on hac than pop.

I'll give you that, but I liked HOT AC better when it was about a certain sound, instead of certain names. I remember listeing to Rick Dees Hot Adult top 40 every week. he would showcase a new Adult Rock style song. "hesitate" from Stone Sour" "Let It Go" from Cavo. Those are a two I can recall. Then all of the sudden songs from LMAFO starting appearing. I knew that was a sign the HOT AC audience was changing and that is was time for me to tune out.