HITS 2/19: Adele #1 (154k/177k), Joey & Rory (47k/48k)

[areyoureadytojump]

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=299654

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

HERE COMES KANYE

Leave it to Kanye West to not only change the title of his album multiple times but to leave the new title a mystery mere days before its slated drop—and to offer fans a free download if they can guess it.

Whatever it’s called—not So Help Me God, not Swish, not Waves, apparently not T.L.O.P.—the G.O.O.D./Def Jam set is due to drop early on Friday (most likely just after his sold-out Yeezy fashion show at Madison Square Garden on 2/11, which will be beamed to venues worldwide). Early estimates for the digital-only first week are in the 275k range.

The collection apparently features guests including Kendrick Lamar, Sia, Post Malone and Ty Dolla $ign, judging from the tracklist West leaked online. Ticket buyers for the fashion-show “experience” will reportedly be emailed a download link for the set once it’s officially released.

Kanye will perform on Saturday Night Live this weekend (hosted by Melissa McCarthy), and is due to hit a number of late night and daytime shows in the ensuing period.

Formerly managed by Roc Nation, the irrepressible, unpredictable artist now manages himself. How will this arrangement affect the album rollout, marketing and promotion?

While thus far there’s no indication that Kanye will perform or otherwise appear on the Grammys—and his itinerary for the weekend before Music’s Biggest Night keeps him on the opposite coast until Sunday at least—anything could happen. And he could certainly use the occasion to issue new content whether he’s there or not.

Formerly managed by Roc Nation, the irrepressible, unpredictable artist now manages himself. How will this arrangement affect the album rollout?

Plenty of questions remain. Will Def Jam be working a single upon release? How will the digital download bundles be tabulated in his first-week total? Will the title-TBA album be available for streaming? If so, where? West was initially part of the Tidal group of stars but was later wooed away by Apple. Will Cupertino get an exclusive? Might Kanye instead hold off for at least a few weeks to focus consumers on buying the set? How long before a tour is announced?

West’s challenging, confrontational 2013 set, Yeezus, bowed at #1 with 328k. 2010’s My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy debuted with 495k and has sold more than 1.5m RTD. His 2011 collaboration with Jay Z was also a #1 and has sold 1.7m RTD.

West dropped single “Facts” on New Year’s Eve, followed by “Real Friends” and “No More Parties in L.A.,” the latter featuring Lamar. Last year saw him release the multiplatinum track “FourFiveSeconds” featuring Paul McCartney and Rihanna (which was Top 5 at Pop radio and #1 at Urban) and “All Day” f/McCartney, Theophilus London and Allan Kingdom. “Parties” appears to be the only single of these included on the album.

[swim]

This is a risky week to release if he's going for a #1 with the Grammys. I don't know if I would bet money on it, but I could totally see Adele edging out Kanye. She's being heavily promoted as the "main event" on Monday even though she's not nominated.

[DJ General]

Feb 10, 2016 13:50:55 GMT -5 swim said:

This is a risky week to release if he's going for a #1 with the Grammys. I don't know if I would bet money on it, but I could totally see Adele edging out Kanye. She's being heavily promoted as the "main event" on Monday even though she's not nominated.

You think Adele will sell almost 300k next week? Not so sure. that is triple her current week. Kanye will most likely be #1 especially if the album is good.

[Hotlantan]

Saturday Night Live tapes on... Saturday night. This year the Grammys are on Monday. OF COURSE he will use that opportunity to promote an album released that same week. Why is this even a point for speculation?

[Deleted]

Feb 10, 2016 16:30:57 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Feb 10, 2016 13:50:55 GMT -5 swim said:

This is a risky week to release if he's going for a #1 with the Grammys. I don't know if I would bet money on it, but I could totally see Adele edging out Kanye. She's being heavily promoted as the "main event" on Monday even though she's not nominated.

You think Adele will sell almost 300k next week? Not so sure. that is triple her current week. Kanye will most likely be #1 especially if the album is good.

I think it's possible.  The last time she performed at the Grammys, she was boosted to over 700k that week.  This is Adele we're talking about here.

[Envoirment]

Feb 10, 2016 17:39:20 GMT -5 @zach808 said:

Feb 10, 2016 16:30:57 GMT -5 DJ General said:

You think Adele will sell almost 300k next week? Not so sure. that is triple her current week. Kanye will most likely be #1 especially if the album is good.

I think it's possible.  The last time she performed at the Grammys, she was boosted to over 700k that week.  This is Adele we're talking about here.

She also won 6 grammys that night - completely sweeping and there was big hype around that too.

I think she'll get a big boost - I'm expecting the album to do 150-200k, but not sure it'll be able to do 300k+.

[jenglisbe]

Yeah never bet against Adele. I mean, come on!

At the same time, how close are these HITS projections that come out pre-release? With Kanye's album being digital-only, too, I don't know how much to even trust this 275k figure.

[DJ General]

Yeah, the Kanye figure is interesting...we'll see what happens. He also has a big SNL appearance as well which could really help.

Adele was still "being discovered" when she sold that much though. A lot of those people were probably people who purchased 25 right away. She was big then, but now she's gotten even bigger..and as others mentioned, she had a lot of on TV coverage. She is only getting a performance on this show. I think she might clear 200,000 but that's high end. I'll need to see her performance and how other people do, including the on screen winners of the night.

[Linnethia Monique]

Feb 10, 2016 17:42:30 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

Feb 10, 2016 17:39:20 GMT -5 @zach808 said:

I think it's possible.  The last time she performed at the Grammys, she was boosted to over 700k that week.  This is Adele we're talking about here.

She also won 6 grammys that night - completely sweeping and there was big hype around that too.

I think she'll get a big boost - I'm expecting the album to do 150-200k, but not sure it'll be able to do 300k+.

Do you want me to start dragging up your past predictions about Adele

[Envoirment]

Feb 10, 2016 18:04:18 GMT -5 Linnethia Monique said:

Feb 10, 2016 17:42:30 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

She also won 6 grammys that night - completely sweeping and there was big hype around that too.

I think she'll get a big boost - I'm expecting the album to do 150-200k, but not sure it'll be able to do 300k+.

Do you want me to start dragging up your past predictions about Adele

Well, I did quite well with my year-end sales prediction for the album in the US at least. I'll just let Adele scalp me when she outdoes my prediction and does like 500k+ the week of the performance :'(

[Linnethia Monique]

Feb 10, 2016 18:17:28 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

Feb 10, 2016 18:04:18 GMT -5 Linnethia Monique said:

Do you want me to start dragging up your past predictions about Adele

Well, I did quite well with my year-end sales prediction for the album in the US at least. I'll just let Adele scalp me when she outdoes my prediction and does like 500k+ the week of the performance :'(

My bad, I quoted the wrong person. I was trying to scalp the hobbit. You good!

[swim]

Feb 10, 2016 16:30:57 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Feb 10, 2016 13:50:55 GMT -5 swim said:

This is a risky week to release if he's going for a #1 with the Grammys. I don't know if I would bet money on it, but I could totally see Adele edging out Kanye. She's being heavily promoted as the "main event" on Monday even though she's not nominated.

You think Adele will sell almost 300k next week? Not so sure. that is triple her current week. Kanye will most likely be #1 especially if the album is good.

I don't think it's a slam dunk or anything, but I'm not betting against the person who has put up 3 one million plus weeks. I definitely don't expect anything close to her last Grammy appearance. That was a rare storm of events where everything came together. Even though 21 had been out for a year she was still relatively new to people, Whitney's passing a few days earlier resulted in the highest rated Grammys in years, Adele swept the night, and it was her first appearance after her vocal surgery if I remember right.

The Kanye prediction could also be off (in either direction), but Adele selling more than Kanye next week isn't far fetched. The night is even getting billed by CBS as the return of Adele.

[when the pawn...]

It will be interesting. It very well could end up being Kanye at 300k and Adele at 150k but I'm not so sure.

Kanye obviously has a good history with opening weeks but he doesn't have a promoted single (not that he had one last time, either) and he has only continued to alienate people over the last few years. I hope he gets a #1 debut and I think smart money is on him doing it but I don't think it's guaranteed. It also will depend on if he pulls any Rihanna/Beyonce s*** and gives a bunch of free Tidal downloads away. Very little is known about the album (will it be available tomorrow in any capacity beyond the Livestream?) so who knows where we'll be come Tuesday.

Adele's numbers will also be interesting. She is expected to sell 95k this week, whereas I believe 21 did about 200k the week before The Grammys - if she has a similar percentage jump as she did four years ago, 25 could sell 350k next week. But she is way more established than she was heading into the 2012 ceremony and has sold 8 million copies of her album already. She is set to perform "When We Were Young" - is this an advantage compared to "Rolling in the Deep" in 2012? WWWY is newer and could make casual fans more motivated to buy an album than a year-old single that had long-since peaked. But RITD is a solid-gold hit and WWWY isn't (may not be) connecting at light-speed like the 21 trifecta did. She also went 6/6 in 2012 but is not eligible for any awards this year.

My gut prediction is Kanye at 175-200k sales, Adele 150-175k sales. But I'm waiting for Adele to inevitably destroy my expectations and sell 300k.

[felipe]

Feb 10, 2016 16:56:17 GMT -5 Hotlantan said:

Saturday Night Live tapes on... Saturday night. This year the Grammys are on Monday. OF COURSE he will use that opportunity to promote an album released that same week. Why is this even a point for speculation?

Why are the Grammys on a Monday?

[areyoureadytojump]

^I think they moved it so the winners/performers would get a full week of sales.

And then they changed the chart week from Friday-Thursday.

[myhouse911]

^it's due to a long weekend in the US.

[forg]

Sunday is Valentines so a lot of people will go out plus it's the midseason premiere of the ratings juggernaut The Walking Dead so probably those are factors as well for the Monday move

[Future Captain]

Feb 10, 2016 20:52:56 GMT -5 forg said:

Sunday is Valentines so a lot of people will go out plus it's the midseason premiere of the ratings juggernaut The Walking Dead so probably those are factors as well for the Monday move

Should've just aired it in the same time with The Walking Dead. Nobody will notice a difference

[Deleted]

Feb 10, 2016 20:36:51 GMT -5 myhouse911 said:

^it's due to a long weekend in the US.

Indeed, I remember them announcing this last spring.  It's a temporary move because of the double holiday weekend.  It should be said that it hasn't always been on Sundays, either.  It's moved around over the years, airing on Wednesdays sometimes, among other days.  It's a network decision that is always about ratings.

I reckon it'll be back to Sunday next year - as that is ideally the best night for big awards show ratings.  Valentine's Day night, however, is not so great.  :)

[Wave.]

Yeezus.

[DJ General]

They did not move it for Valentine's Day or TWD LOL. The show aired against TWD previously anyways. And most people do not go out after 8pm on Valentine's when it falls on a Sunday. Then again, people have Monday off. But also, a lot of people are celebrating valentine's even on saturdya. Either way, that has nothing to do with anything. TWD does not dictate Grammys. Grammys are always huge, even against TWD

[when the pawn...]

One of the producers said they moved it because of Valentines Day and it being a holiday weekend.

[DJ General]

CBS’ biggest awards show will move from its long-time Sunday night to Monday in 2016. The 58th Annual Grammy Awards will air on Monday, Feb. 15. This will be the first Monday telecast of the show, which has aired on Wednesday, Saturday, Thursday and, most recently on Sunday for a number of years. I hear the move will likely be temporary, as the 58th Grammys falls on a holiday weekend that includes President’s Day and Valentine’s Day. The feeling was that having the Grammys at the end, versus the middle, of the long holiday weekend will bring larger audiences. The most recent Grammy telecast drew 27 million viewers earlier this year. Last year, NBC also moved a big awards show, The Primetime Emmys, from Sunday to Monday because of its Saturday Night Football coverage.

deadline.com/2015/05/the-grammy-awards-monday-2016-1201424370/

Yes, they just want to capitalize on the weekend because of Valentine's Day and President's Day. They are excited by the fact it is Valentine's Day, not discouraged. But I'm commenting on people saying TWD caused it to move when the move was announced months before TWD and Grammys already aired against TWD previously.

[Linnethia Monique]

Feb 11, 2016 15:25:47 GMT -5 DJ General said:

They did not move it for Valentine's Day or TWD LOL. The show aired against TWD previously anyways. And most people do not go out after 8pm on Valentine's when it falls on a Sunday. Then again, people have Monday off. But also, a lot of people are celebrating valentine's even on saturdya. Either way, that has nothing to do with anything. TWD does not dictate Grammys. Grammys are always huge, even against TWD

Feb 11, 2016 16:29:34 GMT -5 DJ General said:

CBS’ biggest awards show will move from its long-time Sunday night to Monday in 2016. The 58th Annual Grammy Awards will air on Monday, Feb. 15. This will be the first Monday telecast of the show, which has aired on Wednesday, Saturday, Thursday and, most recently on Sunday for a number of years. I hear the move will likely be temporary, as the 58th Grammys falls on a holiday weekend that includes President’s Day and Valentine’s Day. The feeling was that having the Grammys at the end, versus the middle, of the long holiday weekend will bring larger audiences. The most recent Grammy telecast drew 27 million viewers earlier this year. Last year, NBC also moved a big awards show, The Primetime Emmys, from Sunday to Monday because of its Saturday Night Football coverage.

deadline.com/2015/05/the-grammy-awards-monday-2016-1201424370/

Yes, they just want to capitalize on the weekend because of Valentine's Day and President's Day. They are excited by the fact it is Valentine's Day, not discouraged. But I'm commenting on people saying TWD caused it to move when the move was announced months before TWD and Grammys already aired against TWD previously.

[Deleted]

@coldcoffee  

it's funny because that's the same article I read last year and was referring to in my post. If V-day was actually advantageous to them, as you are saying, they would have just aired it on Sunday. So clearly V-day played a role in the move to Monday this year, whether they admit it or not. Let's be honest, they aren't going to flat out say "we didn't want to compete with Valentine's Day".  If I'm a network exec with my ass on the line to make good decisions for ratings and I had to choose between Valentine's Day when people go out and do things, or President's Day when people do nothing... I'd choose President's day, too. No brainer.

Not only that, but the Grammys are an all-day event for all of the thousands of people involved, and has live red carpet television coverage starting in the afternoon, and a 5pm ceremony start time on the west coast.  They aren't delaying it this year for any time zone. So saying "most people do not go out after 8pm on Valentine's" is moot. 

You talked yourself into a corner and proved yourself wrong by posting that article.  But hey, no hard feelings. 

[DJ General]

Feb 11, 2016 16:46:50 GMT -5 Linnethia Monique said:

Feb 11, 2016 15:25:47 GMT -5 DJ General said:

They did not move it for Valentine's Day or TWD LOL. The show aired against TWD previously anyways. And most people do not go out after 8pm on Valentine's when it falls on a Sunday. Then again, people have Monday off. But also, a lot of people are celebrating valentine's even on saturdya. Either way, that has nothing to do with anything. TWD does not dictate Grammys. Grammys are always huge, even against TWD

Feb 11, 2016 16:29:34 GMT -5 DJ General said:

CBS’ biggest awards show will move from its long-time Sunday night to Monday in 2016. The 58th Annual Grammy Awards will air on Monday, Feb. 15. This will be the first Monday telecast of the show, which has aired on Wednesday, Saturday, Thursday and, most recently on Sunday for a number of years. I hear the move will likely be temporary, as the 58th Grammys falls on a holiday weekend that includes President’s Day and Valentine’s Day. The feeling was that having the Grammys at the end, versus the middle, of the long holiday weekend will bring larger audiences. The most recent Grammy telecast drew 27 million viewers earlier this year. Last year, NBC also moved a big awards show, The Primetime Emmys, from Sunday to Monday because of its Saturday Night Football coverage.

deadline.com/2015/05/the-grammy-awards-monday-2016-1201424370/

Yes, they just want to capitalize on the weekend because of Valentine's Day and President's Day. They are excited by the fact it is Valentine's Day, not discouraged. But I'm commenting on people saying TWD caused it to move when the move was announced months before TWD and Grammys already aired against TWD previously.

you never quit huh

[ILLUSION]

Wait a minute, I may be dumb but...HDD is predicting this but the album isn't even on sale yet?

[DJ General]

Yeah, it is very strange...

[magik]

It's probably just a projection based on Internet/industry hype. His label is probably predicting it. It's done all the time.

[carreramd]

Is it true that there's a song about Taylor in his album?