HITS 5/6: Drake #1: (855k/1.075m), Beyonce #2 (195k/322k)

[areyoureadytojump]

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=300850

Friday, April 29, 2016

CHART STORY: BEYONCÉ’S LEMONADE WINS FIRST PRIZE

Streeting this week is Drake’s Views (YMCMB/Republic), which has garnered first-week forecasts as high as 2m. Yeah.

In other news, Drake, Drake, Drake, Drake… Oh, and did we mention Drake

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HITS has been talking about this 2 million figure this week. 1 million, maybe....

iTunes only release.

Only one song is available to purchase.

[jenglisbe]

Wow. 2 million would be startling. Frankly, 1 million would be incredible, though. For one, it's 2016 and almost no one sells that. For another, Beyonce had a lot more attention/hype (and even promotion via HBO) and couldn't get near 1 million. Wow.

[Live Your Life]

I think they're overestimating a little bit. We shall see.

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

That seems a bit unrealistic to me, and I say this as a former Drake stan/Current Drake fan.

[Deleted]

Well that just blew my own prediction for Views right out of the water, if accurate. Opinions I have seen on it so far have been nothing but glowing though, so I imagine it's being streamed to infinity as the positive word of mouth continues to spread. I wouldn't be surprised if the streams end up being the majority of that SPS total (but not quite to the extreme that was The Life of deleted).

[Zach]

I'm not usually one to jump and say something definitely will be or won't be... but yeah Drake won't be getting 2 million. TWO MILLION???!!!!

[Sherane Lamar]

Apr 29, 2016 19:41:10 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Wow. 2 million would be startling. Frankly, 1 million would be incredible, though. For one, it's 2016 and almost no one sells that. For another, Beyonce had a lot more attention/hype (and even promotion via HBO) and couldn't get near 1 million. Wow.

The media always seemed overly obsessed with Beyonce this decade in a way that her performance on the charts has simply NOT reflected. 


www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGxe83lXgJg

Look at the way SNL tries to play up Beyonce's popularity. Despite her having a grand total of 1 top 10 his these last 6 years. Especially the completely backwards way they compare her to Rihanna, the #2 artist of the decade. 

[Future Captain]

2 million feels way overkill.... I'm gonna guess 60k from SPS, 30k from TEA, and around 800k in pure sales. Then again, we just saw Adele opens with 3,3 million just six months ago, so anything is possible, I guess.

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

Apr 29, 2016 22:31:39 GMT -5 Sherane Lamar said:

Apr 29, 2016 19:41:10 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Wow. 2 million would be startling. Frankly, 1 million would be incredible, though. For one, it's 2016 and almost no one sells that. For another, Beyonce had a lot more attention/hype (and even promotion via HBO) and couldn't get near 1 million. Wow.

The media always seemed overly obsessed with Beyonce this decade in a way that her performance on the charts has simply NOT reflected. 


www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGxe83lXgJg

Look at the way SNL tries to play up Beyonce's popularity. Despite her having a grand total of 1 top 10 his these last 6 years. Especially the completely backwards way they compare her to Rihanna, the #2 artist of the decade. 

That should be indication that the charts don't matter as much as people on this forum think.

Also, Beyonce only had 4 days of sales with exclusive streaming on a platform that has a minuscule market share. Outside of the pop charts and the Hot 100, her chart performance has been fine. Her ability to go on sold out worldwide stadium tours seem to solidify her popularity to me a lot more than those quick, little singles would.

But that wasn't the point of this post. I do think Drake could reach 1 million. 2 million is a bit unthinkable.

[jenglisbe]

^ Even before this release, Beyonce's sales have always paled in comparison to her media coverage, hype, awards, and even airplay. That is not to say her sales in general have been poor, just to say they haven't been what you'd think. Take "Single Ladies" for example. It was seemingly a big hit, but more so it's pop culture impact was huge. Despite that, it's not even in the top 20 (or top 40?) digital sellers of all-time in the U.S. Even her debut, which spawned 4 hits and resulted in countless performances, sold well but wasn't one of the top 5 (or 10?) sellers from that time period.

The point about her tour numbers is a solid one, but more so I think it shows what people value most about her is that she's an entertainer. Her actual music isn't loved as much as her stage presence. That isn't good or bad.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

I would take it one step further and say people love her persona, but they also love the mystique and hype around her persona. It's not so much HER that's necessarily loved, but that hype that surrounds her and everything she does. It helps that what she actually delivers is worthy of attention and praise but the amount she has gotten is astronomical.

[badrobot]

Celebrity does not = chart success does not = artistry

sometimes people manage to excel at all 3, but there is not a 1:1:1 correlation

[shayonce]

She's #3 female artist on spotify us and ww.
That means a lot for someone who only had 1 top10 single in us last 6 years.
And prove her music is more timeless than others.

Not to mention single ladies sales and sasha fierce album sales are fine. You act like they're at 2m.

[Enigma.]

2 million would be approx. 70% of what his previous album has managed so far and it's an Apple exclusive so no, that's NOT going to happen. I'm gladly wrong though.

They are probably counting that it did 300k in one day so yeah it's going to do 2m in seven days

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

Apparently Drake announced 630K first day at his album release party.

unconfirmed though, based on someone from twitter that was there.

Could be WW,

[Enigma.]

WW that sounds about right.

[when the pawn...]

I mean...has HITS ever been that far off on early estimates? If anything, don't they usually underestimate? I know he's a streaming king but it's only on Apple. And only a couple songs available for individual purchase. I don't see how 2 million would be possible but his popularity has always and continues to stun me. I don't quite get it...but congrats to him, these are insane numbers being tossed around.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Apr 30, 2016 1:37:31 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

They are probably counting that it did 300k in one day so yeah it's going to do 2m in seven days

I don't think they calculate estimates by multiplying the first day's sales by seven. That's ridiculous, especially considering how pretty close they tend to be (more or less). First day sales tend to be the highest for a high profile new release but then there's the streaming component, which is going to be higher for this album and more challenging to estimate. I'm sure they have a good reason for estimating 2m initially, even if it is unusually high.

[areyoureadytojump]

Beyonce does not need any hit singles.

Her album sold 500k out of the gate and her sold out tour just started.

Why bother wasting money on promoting singles?

Darke is the opposite. He wants hit singles.

[WotUNeed]

Apr 30, 2016 7:42:45 GMT -5 when the pawn... said:

I mean...has HITS ever been that far off on early estimates? If anything, don't they usually underestimate? I know he's a streaming king but it's only on Apple. And only a couple songs available for individual purchase. I don't see how 2 million would be possible but his popularity has always and continues to stun me. I don't quite get it...but congrats to him, these are insane numbers being tossed around.

To be fair, this doesn't appear to be HDD's own estimate or based off any of his initial performance. Based on when the article was released and the way it's worded, all we really know is that some industry source, at some point, for whatever reason, threw out two million SPS as a possible ceiling for Drake's latest, and that HDD decided to report the number (probably in an effort to keep people interested and checking back). There's not enough info in the article to tell us who generated that estimate, when that prediction was made (e.g., was this at a time when said source knew about the sole-source streaming and limited track purchases?), etc.

Basically, I read it as more clickbait than projection. But I suppose it was effective, since I'm sure many of us will be checking again (albeit here) to see what the first set of numbers on their actual update looks like.

[ILLUSION]

Impressive numbers for Drake!

[Agent Yoncé]

I'm not all that surprised by his projections. He's a rapper, with multiple hits surfacing right now. His first week sales has always been great & now that streaming plays a factor, clearly his numbers will rise. The only issue he would've had was to surpass 2milli+ before the era dies off (his previous eras took a lengthy time to hit that. Most rappers eras are front loaded with the sales & doesn't last that long). That doesn't seem to be an issue this go 'round. Lol

[jgizzle89]

I knew HITS was full of it with that 2 million prediction:


NEW RELEASES: RETAIL VIEWS
Just yesterday, Columbia’s Beyoncé became only the second artist to have album streams over 100m in a single week. Justin Bieber’s Purpose was the only previous album to have that distinction. This week, Drake’s Views looks likely to shatter, and maybe even double, Lemonade’s first-week stream count. Here’s what we’re projecting as of this morning.

Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 800-850k album, 950-1m SPS
Now 57 (NOW) 37-42k
Rob Zombie (UMe) 34-39k, 35-40k

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

Aye. That was my prediction for him. This is exciting. I'd prefer if he hit 1 million in pure sales as well though. Rise Aubrey, rise.

[areyoureadytojump]

That's more like it!

[Caviar]

I bought it!

[jgizzle89]

Looks like they already updated it to 1M projected albums:


NEW RELEASES: RETAIL VIEWS
Just yesterday, Columbia’s Beyoncé became only the second artist to have album streams over 100m in a single week. Justin Bieber’s Purpose was the only previous album to have that distinction. This week, Drake’s Views looks likely to shatter, and maybe even double, Lemonade’s first week stream count, with 150m+ streams. After one full day of sales, Views has generated around 630k in equivalent album sales, confirming what Drake announced from the stage last night. Projections are now in the range of 1m units for the album alone, with TEA and SEA totals possibly driving it as high as 1.2m. This is without physical product, as Views is an Apple exclusive through 5/6.

Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 1m album, 1.2m SPS
Now 57 (NOW) 37-42k
Rob Zombie (UMe) 34-39k, 35-40k

[jenglisbe]

2 million always seemed like a stretch, but honestly I'm surprised the 1 million is holding. That's huge...especially in April!

[Wave.]

Drizzy Fucking Drake.

[H.]

I bought it too.  I also have If Your Reading This... and Nothing Was The Same.