Billboard Hot 100 Predictions: 08/27/2016

[Mike is BAD]

This week is going to really suck. I'd imagine first place either gets perfect or -6

1. Cheap Thrills (=, maybe last week @ 1)
2. This Is What You Came For (+1)
3. Cold Water (+2)
4. One Dance (-2)
5. Heathens (+6, the bigger piløts song)
6. Ride (+1)
7. Can't Stop The Feeling (-3)
8. Closer (+1)
9. DLMD (-3)
10. Needed Me (-2)
11. Let Me Love You (NEW)
12. SMLTYNL (-2)
15. Sucker For Pain (+23)
28. Purple Lambroghini (+62)
34. Bohemian Rhapsody (RE, technically NEW, just like to credit Queen)

And then more Suicide Squad (Obviously not Without Me )

[Deleted]

1- Cheap Thrills
2- One Dance
3- This Is What You Came For
4- Can't Stop The Feeling
5- Ride
6- Don't Let Me Down
7- Cold Water
8- Let Me Love You
9- Needed Me
10- Heathens

[Deleted]

1 Cheap Thrills
2/3 Cold Water
2/3 This Is What You Came For
4 One Dance
5 Ride
6/7/8 Heathens
6/7/8 Closer
6/7/8 Can't Stop The Feeling!
9 Don't Let Me Down
10 Needed Me
11/12 Let Me Love You
11/12 Send My Love To Your New Lover


This week is quite difficult...

[jarhys]

1. Cheap Thrills (=)
2. This Is What You Came For (+1)
3. Cold Water (+2)
4. One Dance (-2)
5. Heathens (+6)
6. Ride (+1)
7. Can't Stop The Feeling! (-3)
8. Don't Let Me Down (-2)
9. Closer (=)
10. Needed Me (-2)

[Leo ✔]

1) Cheap Thrills
2) TIWYCF
3) One Dance
4) Cold Water
5) CSTF!
6) Ride
7) Closer
8) DLMD
9) Heathens
10) Needed Me

[Parerastarr10]

Oh gosh, what a tough week. I will definitely be editing these predictions before the deadline.

1. Cheap Thrills (might be its last week @ #1)
2. One Dance
3. Cold Water
4. This Is What You Came For
5. Can't Stop This Feeling
6. Heathens
7. Ride
8. Don't Let Me Down
9. Needed Me
10. Closer

[MTSChart21]

Aug 9, 2016 4:38:39 GMT -5 awesomecharts said:

1 Cheap Thrills
2/3 Cold Water
2/3 This Is What You Came For
4 One Dance
5 Ride
6/7/8 Heathens
6/7/8 Closer
6/7/8 Can't Stop The Feeling!
9 Don't Let Me Down
10 Needed Me
11/12 Let Me Love You
11/12 Send My Love To Your New Lover


This week is quite difficult...

You'll have to give exact positions before the deadline.

[theperfectopiggy]

I'm not going to be submitting predictions this week because I'm very busy, but I wish the best of luck to everyone who participates! :)

[truemusicreviews]

If anybody gets above a -5, they will officially earn the title of 'chart predicting genie' lmao.

[Deleted]

1 Cheap Thrills 34,500
2 Cold Water 32,500
3 This Is What You Came For 32,000
4 One Dance 30,500
5 Ride 28,900
6 Heathens 27,500
7 Closer 27,400
8 Can't Stop The Feeling! 27,200
9 Don't Let Me Down 26,000
10 Needed Me 25,500
11 Let Me Love You 25,000 :(
12 Send My Love To Your New Lover 24,000

[jtd Thee Stallion]

1. Cheap Thrills
2. Cold Water
3. This Is What You Came For
4. One Dance
5. Heathens
6. Ride
7. Can't Stop The Feeling
8. Closer
9. Don't Let Me Down
10. Needed Me

11. Let Me Love You
12. Send My Love (To Your New Lover)
13. Sucker For Pain

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Can I edit my prediction post any time?

[MTSChart21]

Aug 9, 2016 14:42:18 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

Can I edit my prediction post any time?

Anytime before 11:59 pm EST Wednesday

ANNOUNCEMENT: From now on, the deadline is gonna be 11:59 pm EST on Wednesday.

So, you get -3 for Thursday picks and -5 for any day after that.

This will make it less confusing.

So, happy voting!

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

1. Cheap Thrills
2. Cold Water
3. This Is What You Came For
4. One Dance
5. Ride
6. Heathens
7. Can't Stop The Feeling!
8. Don't Let Me Down
9. Closer
10. Needed Me

[leredlum]

01. Cheap Thrills
02. This is What You Came For
03. One Dance
04. Cold Water
05. Can't Stop the Feeling
06. Don't Let Me Down
07. Heathens
08. Let Me Love You
09. Ride
10. Needed Me

11. For Free
12. Closer
13. Send My Love (To Your New Lover)
14. Sucker For Pain
15. We Don't Talk Anymore
16. Me Too
17. Treat You Better
18. Controlla
19. Into You
20. Panda

[chicken077]

I'm debuting my new point system this week! Currently calculating my points and going to be posting tonight or tomorrow morning! :)
This week is going to be tough... I have a feeling that my results are going to be worse than the previous two weeks, which weren't good already... Hopefully it won't destroy my point system too much...

[jeiboy]

1. Cheap Thrills 322 (=)
2. Cold Water 305 (+3)
3. This Is What You Came For 291 (=)
4. One Dance 287 (-2)
5. Heathens 276 (+6)
6. Ride 274 (+1)
7. Can't Stop The Feeling 273 (-3)
8. Don't Let Me Down 262 (-2)
9. Closer 255 (=)
10. Needed Me 248 (-2)
11. Send My Love 222 (-1)
12. Into You 201 (+10)
13. We Don't Talk Anymore 191 (+6)
14. Let Me Love You 186 (debut)
15. For Free 183 (-2)
16. Too Good 181 (+4)
17. Treat You Better 181 (+1)
18. Panda 181 (-6)
19. Sucker For Pain 173 (+19)
20. Just Like Fire 161 (-3)

[mrchartknowitall]

Chart gods

After being in top 10 all week of iTunes and video release, Katy's rise has no chance of top 10 this week ??

[Deleted]

Aug 9, 2016 18:06:56 GMT -5 mrchartknowitall said:

Chart gods

After being in top 10 all week of iTunes and video release, Katy's rise has no chance of top 10 this week ??

No unless it somehow pulls a crazy amount of streams.

[Bigfatliar 3]

1. Cheap Thrills (39.72)
2. Cold Water (38.11)
3. This Is What You Came For (36.96)
4. One Dance (36.24)
5. Heathens (35.97)
6. Can't Stop The Feeling! (34.05)
7. Ride (33.34)
8. Don't Let Me Down (31.88)
9. Closer (30.68)
10. Needed Me (30.56)

It seems Ride will go to top 5 with heathens and CSTF fall next week. Then, will have close battle with Closer.

[georgetherunner314]

Top 40 predictions today!
So many top 10 songs are so close to each other; it'll be very difficult this week.



Panic! At The Disco's "Bohemian Rhapsody" likely won't even debut in the top 50.

[truemusicreviews]

Aug 9, 2016 18:06:56 GMT -5 mrchartknowitall said:

Chart gods

After being in top 10 all week of iTunes and video release, Katy's rise has no chance of top 10 this week ??

I would be surprised if it even cracked the Top 20. The video should propel it up a significant amount of spots though.

[Zach]

1. Cheap Thrills
2. Cold Water
3. This Is What You Came For
4. One Dance
5. Can't Stop the Feeling!
6. Heathens
7. Ride
8. Don't Let Me Down
9. Closer
10. Needed Me

[truemusicreviews]

There's no way this is going to be accurate, but I'm f**k it. There's gonna be a LOT of close calls, especially "Can't Stop The Feeling" and "Ride", which are separated by a measly three points.

POS	SONG	POINTS	MOVEMENT
1	"Cheap Thrills"	12,305	=
2	"Cold Water"	11,412	+3
3	"This Is What You Came For"	11,337	=
4	"One Dance"	10,413	-2
5	"Heathens"	8,790	+6
6	"Can't Stop The Feeling"	7,853	-2
7	"Ride"	7,850	=
8	"Don't Let Me Down"	5,832	-2
9	"Closer"	5,120	=
10	"Let Me Love You"	3,781	DEBUT
11	"Needed Me"	3,675	-3
12	"Sucker For Pain"	2,713	+26
13	"Send My Love"	2,479	-3
14	"Into You"	2,104	+8
15	"For Free"	1,519	-2

REMINDER: The TMR scale is comparative and not the official point system that the Billboard Hot 100 utilizes. True Music Reviews frequently changes his formula in order to provide more accurate rankings, so comparing weeks may not be the most accurate way of determining a song's chart run.

[kuzgun]

1. Cheap Thrills
2. This Is What You Came For
3. One Dance
4. Cold Water
5. Ride
6. Can't Stop The Feeling
7. Heathens
8. Don't Let Me Down
9. Needed Me
10. Closer

I have no clue so I legit guessed

[chicken077]

Welcome to my first BB Hot 100 weekly prediction with quantitative values! First of all, I'd like to thank georgetherunner314 , MTSChart21 , truemusicreviews , and probably a few others that replied to my questions last week for helping me formulate my point system and helping me retrieve the data! I feel like I have to credit you guys since the advice helped me so much on quantifying my predictions :)

(The number in the parenthesis = position on BB Hot 100 this week)

#	Song Name	Sales	Airplay	Streaming	Est Points
1	Sia f/ Sean Paul - Cheap Thrills (1)	62	152.88	13.54	33460
2	Major Lazer f/ Justin Bieber & MO - Cold Water (5)	74	61.62	20.38	31366
3	Drake f/ Wizkid & Kyla - One Dance (2)	37	130.26	16.87	31191
4	Calvin Harris f/ Rihanna - This is What You Came For (3)	38	128.70	16.78	31078
5	Justin Timberlake - Can't Stop The Feeling (4)	63	131.04	10.56	28903
6	twenty one pilots - Heathens (11)	106	17.94	18.28	28802
7	twenty one pilots - Ride (7)	47	123.24	13.28	28613
8	The Chainsmokers f/ Daya - Don't Let Me Down (6)	35	102.96	15.12	26788
9	The Chainsmokers f/ Halsey - Closer (9)	83	28.08	16.96	26160
10	Rihanna - Needed Me (8)	29	94.38	12.71	23251
11	Adele - Send My Love (To Your New Lover) (10)	41	110.76	8.28	22535
12	Ariana Grande - Into You (22)	55	53.04	10.75	20374
13	Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better (18)	38	56.16	12.57	20309
14	Lil Wayne, Wiz Khalifa, etc. - Sucker For Pain (38)	79	2.37	13.46	20232
15	DJ Snake f/ Justin Bieber - Let Me Love You (NE)	119	0	7.14	19172
16	Desiigner - Panda (12)	17	20.28	17.41	18429
17	Drake f/ Rihanna - Too Good (20)	28	60.84	10.95	18320
18	Charlie Puth f/ Selena Gomez - We Don't Talk Anymore (19)	34	47.58	10.96	17665
19	DJ Khaled f/ Drake - For Free (13)	28	67.08	8.64	17015
20	P!nk - Just Like Fire (17)	28	99.84	4.67	16986
21	Meghan Trainor - Me Too (14)	61	25.74	8.12	16120
22	Drake - Controlla (21)	19	70.98	8.21	16053
23	Fifth Harmony f/ Ty Dolla $ign - Work From Home (16)	17	35.10	11.92	15333

Blurbs:
-Lots of close ones point wise... In fact I'm not expecting anywhere close to a high score, probably expect a double digit mistakes result from me this week. Not a really good week to start with point estimations but hopefully I don't get too discouraged lol
-Cheap Thrills is probably going to get #1 unless something really dramatic happens
-#'s 2 through 4 are all very close. I'm pretty sure Cold Water's gonna get #2, but One Dance and This Is What You Came For might have a closer competition. Gut feeling tells me the latter will veer ahead, but the points tell me the former will get #3. I might look into this more tomorrow before the deadline
-Can't Stop The Feeling and Heathens will have a super close competition for #5. They are exactly 101 points off on my predictions, and I won't be surprised if I get this one flipped. Like the previous, I might look into this more before the deadline tomorrow
-twenty one pilots' Ride is locked in to stay at #7. Probably the song I'm most confident about this week other than Cheap Thrills.
-The Chainsmokers hold both #8 and #9 with Don't Let Me Down and Closer, respectively, with a 600+ point gap between the two. Pretty sure DLMD will still be above Closer.
-A huge drop off in points until Rihanna's Needed Me, which drops to #10. However, for some reason, Needed Me's calculated streaming figure is always lower than what I expected/other people have. As of this week, it doesn't make much of a difference (point gap with #9 is way too large), but hopefully this doesn't screw up my predictions in the weeks to come.
-Into You should charge into the top 15, falling at #12 on my predictions. Treat You Better should also close in. According to my predictions, the point values should be very close (65 points), but I'm pretty sure Into You will be higher, as I consistently overestimate TYB's overall points when I experimented with my point system last week with previous charts.
-Sucker For Pain charges to #14 on my predictions, though I won't be surprised if it goes #13 due to the TYB overestimate. Let Me Love You should barely make top 15, decisively ousting Panda from the region.
-Too Good goes up to 17, We Don't Talk Anymore moves up one slot to 18.
-For Free and Me Too collapse to 17 and 21, respectively. Not really because they dropped a lot in points, but more because of other songs surging high.
-I didn't calculate any of the other Suicide Squad songs, so hopefully they don't mess up my predictions too badly...

[MTSChart21]

Well, here are my predictions (so far)



I will probably edit this tomorrow since there are some really close battles (3/4, 5/6/7, 8/9/10).

Looks like Heathens could be jumping to the top 5 :O

Also, it seems Let Me Love You will miss out on a top 10 debut and should debut in the #13-#16 area (#13-#16 is another really close battle)

[Deleted]

1. Cheap Thrills
2. Cold Water
3. TIWYCF
4. One Dance
5. Heathens
6. CAN'T STOP THE FEELING
7. Ride
8. Don't Let Me Down
9. Closer
10. Needed Me (this doesn't even feel big anymore though? wth...)

[truemusicreviews]

I'm going to regret putting DJ Snake in my Top 10 now fuck.

[Raccoon]

1. Cheap Thrills
2. Cold Water
3. TIWYCF
4. One Dance
5. Heathens
6. CSTF
7. Ride
8. DLMD
9. Closer
10. Needed Me