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Post by Glove Slap on Nov 8, 2017 10:27:13 GMT -5
The 2 million must either be for worldwide, or they increased it very recently, because it was 1.5 a few days back.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Nov 8, 2017 10:33:49 GMT -5
i think keeping streaming out of the firsy week allows the streaming to bump up the next weeks sale loss. One would think that but the sales drop usually overshadows any streaming bump. Specially if there's a ticket bundle as rumoured.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 8, 2017 10:48:18 GMT -5
Here's the full article: www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/record-labels/8030131/why-taylor-swifts-label-is-predicting-2-million-album-sales?utm_source=twitterWhy Taylor Swift's Label Is Predicting 2 Million Album Sales of 'Reputation' Next Week -- And How It Could Come CloseBy Ed Christman | November 08, 2017 9:53 AM EST Usually, when gearing up for a new Taylor Swift album release, Swift's Big Machine Label Group lowers expectations by initially suggesting that the albums will debut with about 750,000 units in the opening week, even though Swift's last three albums scanned over 1 million units in first-week sales. Speak Now sold 1.05 million in the week ending Oct. 31, 2010, Red scanned 1.21 million units in the week ending Oct. 28, 2012, and 1989, tallied 1.287 million units for the week ending Nov. 2, 2014, according to Nielsen Music. But this time around, industry sources tell Billboard, Big Machine is telling its accounts Reputation will see first-week sales action of 2 million units, more than Swift has done for any of previous albums. That's despite the fact that the U.S. music industry is far more dependent on streaming than sales than it was in 2014, with album sales down 18 percent so far this year while audio-on-demand streams -- the only streams that count toward the Billboard 200 -- are up 59 percent year to date. Big Machine's uncharacteristically lofty projections have set off a debate among the data analysts and sales teams at competing record labels over whether the Nashville label can come close to achieving that figure -- and how it would do so, even though the first singles off Reputation aren't performing as well as the first cuts off 1989. One label analyst says, "No way," another says Big Machine's 2 million figure "must be worldwide," while a third says "that's got to include streaming but even then I don't think they can make it." While most streaming executives have been told they will not have the album the first week, retailers were initially told that the album will not go to streaming services for at least the first two weeks -- and that Big Machine was still undecided on how long the ultimate length of that window would be. Since those initial discussions, that sales window has been truncated to one week, merchants say. For an artist like Swift that can still do big physical sales, it still makes financial sense to withhold the album from streaming services. While Adele withheld 25 for seven months from streaming services in 2015, clocking a record-breaking, first-week sales of 3.4 million units and scanning 8.8 million units by the time she gave it to streaming services on June 23, 2016, there is no example to date of an artist earning close to the equivalent of 1 million in week-one album sales via paid streaming. Kendrick Lamar's DAMN. earlier this year has produced the most streaming equivalent albums (SEA), when it had audio on-demand streams of 340.8 million, or 217,000 SEA units, in its debut week ending April 20, 2017, and total consumption units of 600,000 units during that period. Hip-hop and rap rule in streaming, so it's doubtful that Swift could produce as many streams as Lamar. But even if Reputation did produce enough streams for 200,000 SEA units, that would generate about $2.1 million, Billboard estimates. Depending on how much of a discount Big Machine is offering to retailers, about 250,000-300,000 CDs or album downloads will bring in that same amount. So if withholding streaming can produce more than 300,000 copies in incremental sales, it's worth it. Can the U.S. music industry still support a million-album debut week for a superstar artist? Besides Swift and Adele, no other artist has done it since Lil Wayne's Tha Carter III, just made the million copies mark in the week ending June 15, 2008, except for Lady Gaga in 2011. Her Born This Way moved 1.1 million units in its debut week, thanks to 99 cents sales at Amazon, a controversial move that caused Billboard to install a $3.99 price floor on album sales in order to be eligible for The Billboard 200. Others like Lil Wayne came close with Tha Carter IV in 2011, while Justin Timberlake just missed it with The 20/20 Experience in 2013. Early indications are, Swift can still do it, too. Big Machine told the Washington Post that Reputation pre-orders hit 400,000 last Friday, and that total didn't even include a United Parcel Service (UPS) promotion. Sources say that iTunes alone accounted for half of that, or 200,000. Pre-orders may have been unusually strong thanks to a shrewd plan that encouraged fans to pre-order the album (and also buy merchandise) to boost their chances for tickets to her upcoming tour, and better seats. The pre-order promotion is designed to encourage fans to buy multiple copies of the album to a maximum of 13 copies, with each earning fans more points. Last time out on 1989, iTunes had 200,000 in pre-orders, too, and ultimately hit 616,000 in the debut week. Meanwhile, Target is getting two exclusive versions of the album, each with differing artwork and its own, different magazine containing articles and photos of Swift, both selling for $19.99 as a pre-order on the retailer's website; and the standard version, that all other retailers will get, selling for $15. In return Target has, sources say, agreed to give over a greater proportion of display real estate than ever before. For example, the "hits" endcap will only have Swift's music in it. Also, Swift's music will be featured in dedicated, corrugated dumps placed in aisles around the store, not just in the music department, sources say. Target also has strong pre-orders on the album with some sources reporting that Swift has broken the chain's pre-order record. On the last Swift album, 1989, Target scanned 474,000 units in its first week, Walmart scanned 87,000 units, Amazon scanned 31,000 units, Starbucks did 17,000, and Best Buy scanned 11,000, and Walgreens, Trans World Entertainment and Kroger, combined, moved about 10,000 units. Some predict Target will hit 600,000 units in the first week for Reputation, while iTunes will reach 500,000 units. Others say they hear Walmart will sell 250,000 units, though some are skeptical and expect Walmart, Amazon and Best Buy and other physical retailers may do about 300,000 units combined. One big unknown is how many pre-orders the UPS promotion will drive, with customers having to fork over $14.99 for the album and another $9.50 for shipping, meaning an almost $25 price tag. Still, the lure of the promotion for concert tickets may get fans to regard the cost as part of the ticket price, and fans are now used to paying upwards of $100 to see superstars live. In addition to improving their chance for Swift concert tickets, the UPS pre-order promotion automatically registers the fan for a contest to fly to a city for a Swift concert. Without pre-ordering the album Swift fans can still participate in the contest but they have to send in an entry ballot. Traditional appearances on mainstream television and other media by Swift during the debut week will also undoubtedly drive sales. She is expected to perform on an ABC show on Thursday night; followed by an iHeart special on Friday, Saturday Night Live on Saturday; with a Sirius XM performance for broadcast expected to be announced soon. Meanwhile the media blackout on interviews will probably also end, after the first major story appears, naturally in the Reputation magazines on sale at Target. With the full breadth of the Swift promotional campaign for Reputation now unfolding, UPS pre-orders notwithstanding, tallying up the the rest of the industry projections amounts to about 1.4 million units, better than first week sales of 1989, but short of Big Machine's big forecasts. Sources say Swift's distributor, Universal Music Group, will ship between 1.2 million and 1.5 million units of the CD, while vinyl not expected to be ready until sometime in December. UMG declined comment for this story, and Big Machine didn't respond to a request for comment. Melinda Newman provided assistance in preparing this story.
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Post by ILLUSION on Nov 8, 2017 10:50:43 GMT -5
I highly doubt 2 million
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Post by Linnethia Monique on Nov 8, 2017 10:52:40 GMT -5
The 2 million must either be for worldwide, or they increased it very recently, because it was 1.5 a few days back. She's using every tactic in the book minus a tour bundle right now to try and get her highest sales to date.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Nov 8, 2017 11:45:18 GMT -5
It seems weird to me that they are going big with the projected numbers because I feel like they have been very conservative in past estimates for shrewd reasons. Like, predict 600-750K and then sell 1.1 million and OH MY GOD TAYLOR SELLS SO MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED!!! Predict 2 million and sell 1.5 and OH MY GOD TAYLOR UNDERSOLD! UNDERPERFORMANCE!!
I feel like they are either messing up or they have a pretty good idea that it will sell 2 million, but I just cannot imagine it selling that much more than 1989 especially since 1989 had significantly bigger hits and she was like...HUGE during that era. Or maybe it is a worldwide projection and people are just taking it to mean America.
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Post by Caviar on Nov 8, 2017 11:56:22 GMT -5
No way in hell she'll do 2 million first week. Hell, people didn't think 25 would do that initially and that was TWO years ago!
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Post by Linnethia Monique on Nov 8, 2017 12:02:43 GMT -5
No way in hell she'll do 2 million first week. Hell, people didn't think 25 would do that initially and that was TWO years ago! ...and that was with Adele having the bigger first single at the time.
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Nov 8, 2017 12:39:00 GMT -5
2 milli?
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Nov 8, 2017 13:01:11 GMT -5
Reminds me of Katy's label projecting 1 million for Teenage Dream. Just ridiculous. lol
I still say 800k-1million.
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dbhmr
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Post by dbhmr on Nov 8, 2017 13:15:06 GMT -5
Yeah, this screams hype machine. Taylor's public persona isn't as shiny as it once was, so this just feels like her label convincing people that everyone is, in fact, still enamored with her and wants her album.
I do expect this to clear a million, though, or come awfully close. If it just misses I'm sure there will be a lot of doom and gloom, but that wouldn't really taint her stellar album debuts for me.
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Post by Duca on Nov 8, 2017 13:40:30 GMT -5
Reminds me of Katy's label projecting 1 million for Teenage Dream. Just ridiculous. lol This is nowhere nearly as ridiculous as that prediction was.
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Eloqueen™
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Nov 8, 2017 13:41:37 GMT -5
Reminds me of Katy's label projecting 1 million for Teenage Dream. Just ridiculous. lol This is nowhere nearly as ridiculous as that prediction was. Well considering this projection (at least domestically) is at least a million off, I would say it is. lol
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Duca
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Post by Duca on Nov 8, 2017 13:51:49 GMT -5
This is nowhere nearly as ridiculous as that prediction was. Well considering this projection (at least domestically) is at least a million off, I would say it is. lol Billboard is saying 1.4 million in the article. 600k away. We know very little about her promo at the moment but we all know that she will go the extra mile if 2 million is indeed within reach.
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Linnethia Monique
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Post by Linnethia Monique on Nov 8, 2017 14:07:43 GMT -5
Well considering this projection (at least domestically) is at least a million off, I would say it is. lol Billboard is saying 1.4 million in the article. 600k away. We know very little about her promo at the moment but we all know that she will go the extra mile if 2 million is indeed within reach. How do we know 2 million is within reach though? 600K is not a small figure that is easily attainable with additional promo. With streams I could see that being reachable but not on physical copies alone.
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Post by 14887fan on Nov 8, 2017 14:36:48 GMT -5
Are we even remotely surprised that Big Machine is bloating the hell out of sales predictions? Scott Borchetta has *always* been extra. First week sales overall, I'm predicting around 750K-1.67M at best. Lmfao what kind of window is this?
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Nov 8, 2017 14:51:53 GMT -5
Reminds me of Katy's label projecting 1 million for Teenage Dream. Just ridiculous. lol I still say 800k-1million. lmao I had forgotten about that, like, good god. I have to think they have a pretty good idea she will clear a million here again which is pretty amazing in itself. Not many who have cleared a million with 4 albums in a row.
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Nov 8, 2017 15:03:25 GMT -5
Last time she had a bit over 200k in pre-orders, which means that over a million more on top of that bought it that first week. That's with a massive hit and her hitting the promo circuit hard.
The hype is higher now, but to expect that extra amount to swell to 1.6 million without a huge current hit, with only SNL known so far, no proper press, along with a her in a harsher light than ever before does seem like a tall order, which is why I think the 2 million projection is global.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Nov 8, 2017 15:09:51 GMT -5
2 MILLION FOR TAY? THE BIBLE BUMBLES AGAINWednesday, November 8, 2017 Despite the Bible’s nutty formulation for her to reach 2 million first week, analysts are predicting Taylor Swift’s reputation (Big Machine/BMLG) will debut under 1.5m unless she adds a major ticket bundle—or Billboard’s John Amato makes another huge rule change for her in exchange for a meet-and-greet with the staff of a Del Taco in Bensonhurst. That’s entirely plausible, given Amato’s general spinelessness and the Bible’s propensity for changing rules like they’re light bulbs (witness the recent YouTube chart debacle). With album and track sales down 36% since 2014, when 1989 was released, insiders question the assumption that Swift can exceed her previously album’s sales by 700-800k. Of course, anything’s possible with the savvy Swift, and there’s every possibility she’s got something unforeseen in her back pocket to make those numbers. But it’s not happening by the Bible’s lumpy arithmetic.
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Nov 8, 2017 15:12:11 GMT -5
It's possible the leaked totals for Target and iTunes haven't been understated. I'm surprised they'd 'whisper' 2MM without being certain. If I were Big Machine, I'd be more concerned about longevity.
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Nov 8, 2017 15:15:24 GMT -5
Oh they think she's gonna clock Adele? With them holding back streaming for a week, I can see a million still. If she matches or surpasses Adele I will film myself dancing naked to Despacito and send y'all the link. Don't quote me.
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MilesW1998
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Post by MilesW1998 on Nov 8, 2017 15:18:02 GMT -5
Oh they think she's gonna clock Adele? With them holding back streaming for a week, I can see a million still. If she matches or surpasses Adele I will film myself dancing naked to Despacito and send y'all the link. Don't quote me. Too late!
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Nov 8, 2017 15:20:40 GMT -5
Don't worry yall. Looking at how determined Taylor and Scott are to their career, they will do everything to reach that 2 million... like buying 1.000.000 extra copies with their own money.
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Post by when the pawn... on Nov 8, 2017 15:22:29 GMT -5
Reminds me of Katy's label projecting 1 million for Teenage Dream. Just ridiculous. lol I still say 800k-1million. lmao I had forgotten about that, like, good god. I have to think they have a pretty good idea she will clear a million here again which is pretty amazing in itself. Not many who have cleared a million with 4 albums in a row. No one, in fact. Taylor is the only artist to do 1m+ first week for 3 albums so this would extend her lead further over BSB, NSYNC, and Eminem. The 2 million figure sounds crazy but a ticket bundle could help. Word is it got 225k for Pink and that's an arena tour. The advantage 1989 had was a huge hit single and great critical acclaim/general reception - coming off that massive era, hype is high which yields high pre-order numbers. But will Reputation generate that kind of public goodwill and acclaim (quickly)? Reception to all 4 singles/promo singles has been subpar so far.
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Nov 8, 2017 15:54:10 GMT -5
That program she has with Ticketmaster goes on for a bit over two weeks following the album release. They won't be doing a bundle because the people who bought the album will get moved up in the queue as a result.
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Post by deepston on Nov 8, 2017 15:56:47 GMT -5
I really doubt this can hit 2m in the first week. Hell, I even doubt this can hit 1.5m but I would love if that happened!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2017 17:18:04 GMT -5
Ugh, so that Ticketmaster scam is gonna inflate the numbers THIS much? I really hope there's a 99% week 2 drop or something.
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Nov 8, 2017 17:23:44 GMT -5
...wut?
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Post by Keelzit on Nov 8, 2017 17:55:50 GMT -5
Had she had 1 huge hit with another one rapidly climbing the charts right now, made it available for streaming on all services, did insane promo and a ticket bundle, she could have easily snatched Adele. Under the current circumstances though, anything is possible. The hype is at an all-time high but she 'lacks' the hits and promo this time around so it's a shot in the dark at this point.
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Post by #brayden on Nov 8, 2017 18:01:06 GMT -5
I love that her album releases are always such an event.
2 million would surprise me, but if I've learned anything over the years it's that she can't be underestimated when it comes to album sales.
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