HITS 12/8: #1 U2 165/170k #2 Chris 110/120k #3 Taylor 60/99k

[deepston]

1m for Eminem is a big overestimation...

[nickd]

Dec 3, 2017 17:58:16 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Dec 3, 2017 11:21:58 GMT -5 Duca said:

Eminem's date has been officially confirmed:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BcD59vpFf2O

He will probably do +300k even though Walk on Water is like the biggest bomb of the decade.

300? He will most likely do upwards of 1 million with streaming. He’s never released an album in this era and he’s a big streaming artist. There’s no way he goes under 500 with SPS. HEs a huge legacy artist who has fans grandfathered in

I'm pretty excited about Em's new album but I don't think streaming equivalents are ever that high. I'd expect something in the neighbourhood of 50k streaming equivalents, so if he does 1 million or even 500k, most of that will have to come from sales. What's the highest streaming equivalent number achieved by any artist in a single week?

[DJ General]

I didn’t mean just from streaming but he will be doing much much more than 300k.
We’ve seen time and time again when artists with giant singles don’t move albums. And artists with no promotIon shock and sell massive amounts.

REgardless of song quality I’ll buy anything from Eminem. I didn’t even like walk on water much anymore lol but it doesn’t matter as I support him

[DJ General]

Dec 3, 2017 18:01:35 GMT -5 deepston said:

1m for Eminem is a big overestimation...

How? He did almost 800,000 a few years ago with no streaming

He’s supposed to have a big single out this week and a video so we will see. I think anything could happen depending on features as well

He could put out a giant song this week. We don’t know

I will say he will do 600,000 to be safe though

[nickd]

Dec 3, 2017 18:17:26 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Dec 3, 2017 18:01:35 GMT -5 deepston said:

1m for Eminem is a big overestimation...

How? He did almost 800,000 a few years ago with no streaming

He’s supposed to have a big single out this week and a video so we will see. I think anything could happen depending on features as well

He could put out a giant song this week. We don’t know

I will say he will do 600,000 to be safe though

Alright, I can see 600-700k SPS, 400k pure album sales.

[deepston]

Dec 3, 2017 18:17:26 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Dec 3, 2017 18:01:35 GMT -5 deepston said:

1m for Eminem is a big overestimation...

How? He did almost 800,000 a few years ago with no streaming

He’s supposed to have a big single out this week and a video so we will see. I think anything could happen depending on features as well

He could put out a giant song this week. We don’t know

I will say he will do 600,000 to be safe though

Key words are a few years ago.
Also he hasn't had a big hit in ages. I say he'll match previous sales with a lot of luck. 500k-600k is realistic.

[DJ General]

Dec 3, 2017 18:25:33 GMT -5 deepston said:

Dec 3, 2017 18:17:26 GMT -5 DJ General said:

How? He did almost 800,000 a few years ago with no streaming

He’s supposed to have a big single out this week and a video so we will see. I think anything could happen depending on features as well

He could put out a giant song this week. We don’t know

I will say he will do 600,000 to be safe though

Key words are a few years ago.
Also he hasn't had a big hit in ages. I say he'll match previous sales with a lot of luck. 500k-600k is realistic.

Eminem is sales resistance. His hits with Rihanna last time were long gaps before his previous hits as well. It doesn’t matter he has massive appeal. And if he does indeed have a huge artist on his album in a big pop song it could be huge. 500-600 could be realistic but people saying maybe 300 are dreaming

[Choco]

1 million sales would be a great number for Eminem in total sales, considering lack of recent hits, age and sales climate. For week 1 it is not gonna happen without some sort of aggresive bundle and marketing ploy, which I don't think he'll do because: a) I don't think he cares that much, b) There's no way this opens higher than MMLP2.

Also, is he a big streaming artist? I haven't seen enough evidence for that yet. His older hits stream very well but they're approaching rap classic status, while his newer stuff has gotten mostly a cold shoulder. His last hit was 4 years ago and things have changed (ask Taylor Swift and Katy Perry).

[nickd]

Dec 4, 2017 7:45:21 GMT -5 Choco said:

1 million sales would be a great number for Eminem in total sales, considering lack of recent hits, age and sales climate. For week 1 it is not gonna happen without some sort of aggresive bundle and marketing ploy, which I don't think he'll do because: a) I don't think he cares that much, b) There's no way this opens higher than MMLP2.

Also, is he a big streaming artist? I haven't seen enough evidence for that yet. His older hits stream very well but they're approaching rap classic status, while his newer stuff has gotten mostly a cold shoulder. His last hit was 4 years ago and things have changed (ask Taylor Swift and Katy Perry).

pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/172163/most-streamed-albums-right

Still looking for a 2010 album that's streaming better than Recovery, it's got about as much as Loud and Teenage Dream combined. So far I've only found Drake's Nothing Was The Same with more streams than MMLP2 out of the 2013 albums.

[Duca]

Dec 3, 2017 18:17:26 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Dec 3, 2017 18:01:35 GMT -5 deepston said:

1m for Eminem is a big overestimation...

How? He did almost 800,000 a few years ago with no streaming

He’s supposed to have a big single out this week and a video so we will see. I think anything could happen depending on features as well

He could put out a giant song this week. We don’t know

I will say he will do 600,000 to be safe though

Walk on Water was supposed to be "huge" and well. :kii: It sold 300k less during the first week than any of his lead singles from the past 10 years. It's a colossal flop (sales, radio, streaming) and the album could follow in the same footsteps. Plus, he dissed his republican fans a couple of weeks ago (presumably a large portion of his fan base.)

[Duca]

TAYLOR'S STREAMING REPUTATION

In its first week of streaming, Taylor Swift's reputation is projected to generate 45-55 million streams, resulting in an SEA of about 30-35k, an increase of about 20-25k vs. last week. Wonderers are wondering if her team's strategy of withholding streaming has paid off.

Sales of the Big Machine set, her first album since 2014's 1989, are 1.58m YTD after three weeks. The TEA/SEA combo adds another 60k for an SPS total of 1.64m. At the same point in its release, 1989 had sold 1.94m, 300k more than reputation's SPS equivalent. That said, reputation is now #2 at Apple Music.

After years of pushing consumers to a subscription model, are those consumers who have wholly embraced a subscription service now reluctant to spend even more money to purchase an album that's withheld from streaming services?

[deepston]

She couldn't do 1.2m first week and in that sense, holding the album from streams paid off. She should have released the album for streaming right on the 2nd week though but I don't think her team predicted such a hard 2nd week fall.
We all know this won't sell like 1989, mainly because it hasn't a big hit just yet, maybe End Game will make this album catch up a bit and finish at 2m for 2017 even though it's unlikely.

[renfield75]

I hope the huge TEA/SEA numbers for Miguel (relative to his pure sales) will be enough to push "Sky Walker" into the top 40 on the Hot 100.

[nickd]

Dec 4, 2017 16:06:46 GMT -5 deepston said:

She couldn't do 1.2m first week and in that sense, holding the album from streams paid off. She should have released the album for streaming right on the 2nd week though but I don't think her team predicted such a hard 2nd week fall.
We all know this won't sell like 1989, mainly because it hasn't a big hit just yet, maybe End Game will make this album catch up a bit and finish at 2m for 2017 even though it's unlikely.

Wouldn't it need only 100k per week for weeks 4-7 to make 2m for 2017? That doesn't seem so out of reach.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Actually, 359k SPS and 421k pure album sales based on the BB 200 articles reported numbers. I predict it will manage to get the former in two or three weeks and the latter in three or four.

[Deleted]

If U2 opens with around 180k, that really wouldn’t be that bad, considering they’ve been going since the 80s, and their last album that was actually being sold was released 8 years ago.

As for Eminem, I’m gonna say it’s either gonna be upwards of 700k, or around 200k. His streaming could really go either way. Either he’ll bomb Spotify with a top 10 takeover, or he’ll be considered a legacy act, which might have been foreshadowed with Walk on Water.

[areyoureadytojump]

Oh, Taylor!

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=309622

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

YOUR TOP 20: A MIDWEEK EXPERIENCE

U2’s latest, Songs of Experience, will land at #1 this week with Nashville star Chris Stapleton taking the #2 spot. A Pentatonix Christmas remains Top 5 this week and other perennial holiday titles make a strong showing in the Top 20.

1. *U2 (Interscope) 170-180k SPS, 165-175k Sales
2. *Chris Stapleton (Mercury Nashville) 120-130k, 110-120k
3. Taylor Swift (Big Machine/BMLG) 99-104k, 60-65k
4. Pentatonix (RCA) 66-70k, 47-50k
5. Sam Smith (Capitol) 42-45k, 17-20k
6. Ed Sheeran (Atlantic) 38-41k, 11-13k
7. Michael Buble (Reprise) 36-39k, 15-18k
8. Post Malone (Republic) 35-38k, 2-3k
9. *Miguel (ByStorm/RCA) 33-36k, 13-15k
10. Lil Uzi Vert (Generation Now/Atlantic) 31-34k, 1-2k

11. Pentatonix – That’s Christmas to Me (RCA) 30-33k, 16-19k
12. Kodak Black (Atlantic) 29-32k, <1k
13. Chris Brown (RCA) 29-32k, 3-4k
14. Imagine Dragons (Kidinakorner/Interscope) 25-28k, 9-11k
15. 21 Savage, Offset & Metro Boomin (Slaughter Gang/Epic) 24-27k, <1k
16. Khalid (Right Hand Music/RCA) 23-26k, 4-5k
17. Kendrick Lamar (TDE/Aftermath/Interscope) 22-25k, 3-4k
18. Lil Pump (Tha Global Lights/Warner Bros.) 21-24k, 1-2k
19. Josh Groban (Reprise) 20-23k, 15-18k
20. Mariah Carey (Columbia) 20-23k, 6-7k

*DEBUTS

[Glove Slap]

That's a 50+% decrease for Taylor in sales. Huge contrast from her past albums, which stabilized through the Q4 rush.

U2's number actually fell too, so it's a weak result for them with their immense touring strength. They'll likely fall hard next week.

[Oprah]

Nearly half of the 185K HDD was teasing at the beginning of the week. They've been consistently overestimating Taylor.

[shayonce]

her previous albums had great drop and sales through Q4.
they're probably shocked too.

[Duca]

Awful numbers for Taylor.

[Deleted]

Still that harsh of a drop even with the streaming release? Oh dear... This is not gonna pass Ed with Perfect taking off. Might even struggle to pass Kendrick if this album doesn’t stabilize soon.

[Enigma.]

SPS numbers are obviously great for Taylor (better than anyone else in top ten) but proper sales are sadly collapsing now.

That's happening to all albums though. There's no such thing as Xmas shopping any more. There have been better sales weeks throughout the year.

And Perfect has already "taken off" (top ten on Hot 100 for several weeks)

[born]

Lol 60-65k pure in its fourth week? Who does she think she is? Katy?

[deepston]

Sadly I can't see any more weeks on top for Taylor.

[Caviar]

Mariah at #20?

[forg]

Dec 6, 2017 6:48:27 GMT -5 Caviar said:

Mariah at #20?

All I Want For Christmas is You boost

[Choco]

Reputation will probably still get 2 million sales, which is fine, but I thought she was gonna at least challenge 3 million.

[Enigma.]

If Reputation follows footsteps of DAMN to 2.5-3m, it's going to register 60k weeks for several months but I believe it requires couple of hits too (End Game will 100% be one)

[shayonce]

next week will be interesting to see If she can hold her stream number, and If there's holiday sales in a way or just another drop..