Using math to measure the "biggest comebacks" of all time

[Sherane Lamar]

Somebody on Quora proposed the question of what the "biggest comeback" in music history is. I decided to come up with a mathematical model to define and measure the size of a comeback. Once again, I'll be using the Hot 100 and the inverse point system as a tool to measure success in the music industry. 

SPOILER: Click to show

{Show math reasoning}A "comeback" has three main components.

* A point in time when an artist was successful
* A period of time in which an artist was not successful
* A second point in time where an artist was successful

It would follow that a "big" comeback would involve an artist being VERY successful, followed by a LONG period of absence, followed by another point of HIGH success.

Basically, I began to think of the concept like a cup. Where the first year and the second year were the edges, and the empty area in the middle is the water. The more water that the cup can hold, the bigger of a comeback it is. But if there was periods of mild success in between, that would displace the water, and make the comeback seem less momentous.

The actual equation I came up with is this:

Q = y(T-1) - f

Where,

T represents the number of years elapsed between the two years.
y represents inv point score of the smaller of the two years being compared.
f represents the number of points scored in between the two years.
Q represents the size of the comeback A "comeback" has three main components. 

* A point in time when an artist was successful
* A period of time in which an artist was not successful
* A second point in time where an artist was successful

It would follow that a "big" comeback would involve an artist being VERY successful, followed by a LONG period of absence, followed by another point of HIGH success. 

Basically, I began to think of the concept like a cup. Where the first year and the second year were the edges, and the empty area in the middle is the water. The more water that the cup can hold, the bigger of a comeback it is. But if there was periods of mild success in between, that would displace the water, and make the comeback seem less momentous. 

The actual equation I came up with is this: 

Q = y(T-1) - f

Where, 

T represents the number of years elapsed between the two years.
y represents inv point score of the smaller of the two years being compared. 
f represents the number of points scored in between the two years. 
Q represents the size of the comeback 

So for Justin Timberlake, using the year 2013 and the year 2016, it would be.... 

Q = 2825(3-1) - 1815 = 3835

For Adele, using the year 2012 and the year 2016, it would be.... 

Q = 5103(4-1) - 1153 = 14156

So looking at these two, Adele's comeback is clearly bigger than Timberlake's. 1) Adele had a bigger 2016 than Timberlake did. 2) Adele's absence was longer. 3) Adele didn't have as much success in between these two eras as Timberlake did. 


I want to try and find the biggest score that any two years in an artist's career could yield using this system. You guy's suggestions would be helpful. I can do the math and the chart mining myself. 

The first that came to my mind was Santana, who had a significant career in the 70's and early 80's, disappeared for about a decade and a half, and then came back to an enormous set of singles in 1999. But it would take some work to go back and figure out which year from 1970-1985 to go off of. 

Another person who worries me is Prince, who had a good 2016 after around 2 decades of virtual absence. I don't want to refer to an artist's death as a comeback, but he may come up with one of the highest scores using this system. 

What do you guys think? Who would probably have the biggest come back ever? Who should I test? Note, I can produce results really easily using only years from 2010-2017, because I have the full scores from those years already written down. 

[KeepDeanWeird]

Maybe for 2-10 would be interesting, but it's no contest for #1: Santana:
Last top 40 hit: 1982 Hold on (#15)
Last H100: 1985 Say it Again (#46)
Next two charting singles both released: 1999 Smooth & Maria Maria (both #1)

Last top 40 album (and gold album) 1982 - Shango (#22)
Supernatural 1999 #1 and 15x

[JOJO SIWA DERANGEMENT SYNDROME]

But you're missing one important detail that mathematics cannot tell you: the song has to connect with the audience. What if he wants to be artistic and releases a Bionic or Witness type of record?

[renfield75]

You're all overlooking one of the most famous and satisfying (and arguably greatest) comebacks in music history: Tina Turner. Chart-wise, Ike and Tina had one top ten single, "Proud Mary" in 1971. They had a total of 6 top 40 hits. After a decade of absolute obscurity, Tina came back with a whole new career: 14 top 40 hits, 6 top tens, and the mammoth Grammy winning #1 smash "What's Love Got To Do With It". At 44 she redefined her career and herself, not just scoring hits but changing her narrative from domestic abuse survivor who was controlled by a domineering man to an independent powerhouse in charge of her own life and destiny. They made a movie about it because it's one of the most hard-earned, gratifying comebacks in history.

[renaboss]

Feb 4, 2018 5:01:33 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

You're all overlooking one of the most famous and satisfying (and arguably greatest) comebacks in music history: Tina Turner. Chart-wise, Ike and Tina had one top ten single, "Proud Mary" in 1971. They had a total of 6 top 40 hits. After a decade of absolute obscurity, Tina came back with a whole new career: 14 top 40 hits, 6 top tens, and the mammoth Grammy winning #1 smash "What's Love Got To Do With It". At 44 she redefined her career and herself, not just scoring hits but changing her narrative from domestic abuse survivor who was controlled by a domineering man to an independent powerhouse in charge of her own life and destiny. They made a movie about it because it's one of the most hard-earned, gratifying comebacks in history.

A bit off-topic perhaps, but do you by any chance know why "The Best" only hit as high as #15? It's the kind of song that, had it been a #1 hit, I would have gone "well, of course it was", and knowing that it didn't even crack the top 10 puzzles me greatly. 

As for comebacks, the one that always comes to mind is Mariah in 2005, but does that even count, really? Also the Beach Boys in 1988 with "Kokomo" (22 years between #1s, 2nd biggest break after Chér), but they'd scored a #12 medley earlier in the 80s. 

[mako]

How does Lorde factor?

[jenglisbe]

Feb 4, 2018 7:04:30 GMT -5 renaboss said:

As for comebacks, the one that always comes to mind is Mariah in 2005, but does that even count, really? Also the Beach Boys in 1988 with "Kokomo" (22 years between #1s, 2nd biggest break after Chér), but they'd scored a #12 medley earlier in the 80s. 

Why wouldn't it count? It was a quick turnaround, but in my mind that actually makes it more impressive. "Time heals all wounds" so to speak, so to come back so successfully right after such a disastrous time is actually impressive. She also went from selling 600k of one album and 1.1 million of the next one, with no real hits in terms of impact, to selling over 6 million copies of an album and with the biggest song of the decade.

[renaboss]

Feb 4, 2018 8:41:37 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Feb 4, 2018 7:04:30 GMT -5 renaboss said:

As for comebacks, the one that always comes to mind is Mariah in 2005, but does that even count, really? Also the Beach Boys in 1988 with "Kokomo" (22 years between #1s, 2nd biggest break after Chér), but they'd scored a #12 medley earlier in the 80s. 

Why wouldn't it count? It was a quick turnaround, but in my mind that actually makes it more impressive. "Time heals all wounds" so to speak, so to come back so successfully after such a disastrous time is actually impressive. She also went from selling 600k of one album and 1.1 of the next one, with no real hits in terms of impact, to selling over 6 million copies of an album and with the biggest song of the decade.

I guess it's cos I was thinking of songs alone, and she was featured in two hits ("I Know What You Want" (2003) and "U Make Me Wanna" (2004)) between "Loverboy" (2001) and "It's Like That" (2005). But yeah, if we're going by her own material alone, it was indeed a great comeback. 

Side note, I'm shocked that "Through the Rain" didn't make it big in the U.S., it was a biggie in Europe, one I remember quite well from that time, and such a pretty song, no less so than her #1 balads. Oh well, they can't all be hits.

[badrobot]

There’s a few types of comeback in my mind:

1. Artist takes a long break without releasing anything and is successful with their new release, but did not have an “unsuccessful” release inbetween
Examples: Adele perhaps, although it wasn’t a very long break. Can’t think of others.

2. Artist is successful early in career, has an unsuccessful time period while still releasing music, and then has 1 big hit
Examples: Cher, Beach Boys

3. Same as 2 except the artist sustains multiple hits during their second comeback period
Long-term examples: Santana, Tina Turner
Shorter-term examples: Nelly Furtado, Pink, Maroon 5, Mariah Carey

Personally, I think #3 is the most impressive. Santana and Tina Turner are the best examples I’ve seen so far.

[Sherane Lamar]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Spoiler}{Show Santana Year-by-Year}
Santana in 2008 = 705
Santana in 2007 = 574
Santana in 2005 = 176
Santana in 2004 = 845
Santana in 2003 = 1749 + 1788 = 3537
Santana in 2002 = 1115
Santana in 2000 = 2920 + 2353 = 5273
Santana in 1999 = 1918
Santana in 1985 = 447
Santana in 1983 = 60
Santana in 1982 = 910 + 154 = 1064
Santana in 1981 = 1043 + 211 = 1254
Santana in 1980 = 358
Santana in 1979 = 207 + 499 + 222 = 928
Santana in 1978 = 217 + 8 = 225
Santana in 1977 = 678
Santana in 1976 = 50
Santana in 1972 = 500
Santana in 1971 = 552 + 742 + 693 = 1987
Santana in 1970 = 551 + 950 = 1501
Santana in 1969 = 208

So for Santana, we'll use 1971 and 2000. 

Q = 1987(29-1) - 7482 = 48,154

[Sherane Lamar]

Now Prince, 

SPOILER: Click to show

{Show Prince Year-by-Year}Prince in 2016 = 1061
Prince in 2006 = 41
Prince in 2004 = 240
Prince in 2000 = 30
Prince in 1999 = 236 + 61 = 297
Prince in 1995 = 551 + 23 + 14 = 588
Prince in 1994 = 2142 + 710 = 2852

We'll use 1994 to 2016: 

Q = 1061(22-1) - 1196 = 21,085

[Sherane Lamar]

Feb 4, 2018 3:52:38 GMT -5 JOJO SIWA DERANGEMENT SYNDROME said:

But you're missing one important detail that mathematics cannot tell you: the song has to connect with the audience. What if he wants to be artistic and releases a Bionic or Witness type of record?

Well I'm pretty sure both of those albums are relative flops, so they wouldn't score that high. 

[imbondz]

Fun thread. Without thinking through it, Santana has to have the biggest comeback ever. His album and singles were huge and after a long break.

How about the Beatles having a top 10 hit in 1996? Then their #1 album is their biggest seller I believe.

[imbondz]

Feb 4, 2018 5:01:33 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

You're all overlooking one of the most famous and satisfying (and arguably greatest) comebacks in music history: Tina Turner. Chart-wise, Ike and Tina had one top ten single, "Proud Mary" in 1971. They had a total of 6 top 40 hits. After a decade of absolute obscurity, Tina came back with a whole new career: 14 top 40 hits, 6 top tens, and the mammoth Grammy winning #1 smash "What's Love Got To Do With It". At 44 she redefined her career and herself, not just scoring hits but changing her narrative from domestic abuse survivor who was controlled by a domineering man to an independent powerhouse in charge of her own life and destiny. They made a movie about it because it's one of the most hard-earned, gratifying comebacks in history.

Ok yeah, agreed. Tina Turner beats Santanas comeback. Disregard my last post.

[85la]

Sherane, in your first post I'm not quite sure why you include Justin Timberlake and Adele in this category, because they haven't yet experienced any releases that were considered flops or unsuccessful. The fact that they have relatively long gaps between albums doesn't really count, because obviously during those gaps, there was nothing released that could have been measured as a success or failure, and their celebrities remained relevant. The only cases for which I would say between-album gaps could count would be if they were extremely long, such as 10+ years and if the artist did indeed fall completely out of relevancy, or if the gap was riddled with controversy and bad publicity.

Just without doing any calculations though, I agree that overwhelmingly Santana would be the leader. I would also say Justin Bieber's Purpose as well (yeah, I know he didn't release a full-length proper studio album in between Believe and Purpose, but he did release all those singles in late 2013 and it seemed like an album was coming soon after that they might have scrapped after the singles flopped, plus, the gap was riddled with a lot of controversy and negative public exposure).

I would also say The Emancipation of Mimi, Miley Cyrus's Bangerz, and Cher would rank very highly (the latter who seemed to have two comebacks, the first with Heart of Stone in 1989 and then Believe 10 years later).

[jenglisbe]

I don't view Santana the same as the rest. He was able to come back because, not being a singer himself, he used younger/relevant acts to sing the songs. I think that is different than Tina, Cher, Mariah, etc coming back.

[Sherane Lamar]

Feb 4, 2018 16:19:31 GMT -5 85la said:

Sherane, in your first post I'm not quite sure why you include Justin Timberlake and Adele in this category, because they haven't yet experienced any releases that were considered flops or unsuccessful. The fact that they have relatively long gaps between albums doesn't really count, because obviously during those gaps, there was nothing released that could have been measured as a success or failure, and their celebrities remained relevant. The only cases for which I would say between-album gaps could count would be if they were extremely long, such as 10+ years and if the artist did indeed fall completely out of relevancy, or if the gap was riddled with controversy and bad publicity.

Just without doing any calculations though, I agree that overwhelmingly Santana would be the leader. I would also say Justin Bieber's Purpose as well (yeah, I know he didn't release a full-length proper studio album in between Believe and Purpose, but he did release all those singles in late 2013 and it seemed like an album was coming soon after that they might have scrapped after the singles flopped, plus, the gap was riddled with a lot of controversy and negative public exposure).

I would also say The Emancipation of Mimi, Miley Cyrus's Bangerz, and Cher would rank very highly (the latter who seemed to have two comebacks, the first with Heart of Stone in 1989 and then Believe 10 years later).

I was just using those two as quick little examples. As you can see, their scores were a lot smaller than Prince's and Santana's. 

I can do Bieber right now fairly quickly. It'll be 2012 - 2016

Q = 4735(4-1) - 6183 = 8,022

[85la]

Feb 4, 2018 16:38:59 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

I don't view Santana the same as the rest. He was able to come back because, not being a singer himself, he used younger/relevant acts to sing the songs. I think that is different than Tina, Cher, Mariah, etc coming back.

That's very true too.

[rainie]

Feb 4, 2018 9:48:20 GMT -5 badrobot said:

There’s a few types of comeback in my mind:

1. Artist takes a long break without releasing anything and is successful with their new release, but did not have an “unsuccessful” release inbetween
Examples: Adele perhaps, although it wasn’t a very long break. Can’t think of others.

2. Artist is successful early in career, has an unsuccessful time period while still releasing music, and then has 1 big hit
Examples: Cher, Beach Boys

3. Same as 2 except the artist sustains multiple hits during their second comeback period
Long-term examples: Santana, Tina Turner
Shorter-term examples: Nelly Furtado, Pink, Maroon 5, Mariah Carey

Personally, I think #3 is the most impressive. Santana and Tina Turner are the best examples I’ve seen so far.

Big example of #1: Justin Timberlake in between the FutureSex/LoveSounds and 20/20 Experience eras.

[Deleted]

How does Aerosmith stack up? Huge in the early 70s, pretty much faded away entirely in the late 70s/early 80s, and then absolutely exploded during the late 80s and through the entirety of the 90s before finally fading away after one last hit in 2001.

Now, they have their fair share of hits, but they’re not usually that big on the H100. When it comes to album sales, though, they had 2 gold albums in the early 80s followed by a 5x platinum and 2 7x platinum albums.

[jebsib]

Maybe not the biggest, but…

Insane career-shifting # 1 comebacks from Frank Sinatra (1966), Neil Sedaka, Paul Anka (1974), weren't just the "Cher / Believe" variety - they had a string of follow ups.

Elton John and Mariah Carey had huge stretches of hits early in their careers, followed by periods where they became the butt-of jokes (a point at which few can come back from) to launch monster returns.

There are also the groups that had two careers - like Aerosmith, Kool & the Gang and Heart, all of whom lost major popularity and came back sounding or looking nothing like they did before.

1989 was the key Hot 100 year for giving former superstars their last big hits after decades of being pop outcasts:
Bee Gees, Donny Osmond, Doobie Brothers, Donna Summer, Alice Cooper...

[renfield75]

The Bee Gees and Donna Summer being in the top ten together in 1989 was kinda like Enrique Iglesias and Jennifer Lopez being in the top ten together in 2011.

[jenglisbe]

Some of these being mentioned are one-offs where the comeback was basically 1 hit and nothing else (Cher in the late 90s, and I think the Bee Gees and Doobie Brothers in the late 80s).

I can't believe no one has mentioned Meat Loaf yet. His comeback in 1993 was startling.

[SPRΞΞ]

“Alone” by The Bee Gees was another hit for them in the mid-90’s. It’s actually my favorite by them.

[jenglisbe]

Feb 5, 2018 21:31:44 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

“Alone” by The Bee Gees was another hit for them in the mid-90’s. It’s actually my favorite by them.

Eh, it barely cracked the top 30 in the U.S. If we're talking worldwide, then sure.

[jebsib]

Elvis in 1969 was considered the biggest comeback of all time (at the time), with the media convinced he was lost to a by-gone (pre-Beatle) era.

Kylie Minogue came back hard in the U.S. in '02 after 13 years.

[Glove Slap]

I'm glad Aerosmith has been mentioned in this. I get why they're not thought of much on this board, but I think their comeback is right up there with Tina Turner's. I don't know if they were the butt of so many jokes like Mariah in the interim, but their downfall exemplified so many rock star clichés. Alcohol, drugs, people leave the band, they lose their riches, etc. Steven Tyler said that there was a point where he was buying heroin off the street during this period. It's a lot that they came back from.

The most impressive thing about it though is that they not just sustained it on subsequent projects, but actually improved on it commercially with the followups. And not just in relation to their low period, they did up to par with the contemporary acts of the day, and outperformed a good amount of them too. To put this in perspective, 1989's Pump did better than Motley Crüe's commercial highpoint of that year. 1993's Get A Grip did the same as the Pearl Jam album that came out later that year, and outdid Nirvana's. And these were all acts that cited Aerosmith as an influence too as well (I think this was actually key too; both the hair metal and grunge scenes cited Aerosmith's 70s output as an influence). And it wasn't just on sales too, they found success on MTV too that aimed at an audience would have been too young for their initial successes. The videos with Alicia Silverstone were huge, as was Janie's Got A Gun.

Similarly to Mariah as well, they also had another comeback attempt in the mid-80s that didn't work when they first reunited. And they achieved a taste of their prior success with a collaboration right after.

[iHype.]

I was gonna say Santana, but a good point was used with him basically having young singers do all his songs. It's like saying a 70 year old DJ got a comeback because Rihanna did the vocals for their song.

I'd have to go with Mariah then. Especially Hot 100 wise.

She went from having her highest peaking single from her previous album not reach Top 80, to 2 #1's + a #2 + AIWFCIY going #1 on Digital Sales and starting its uproar as an all-time classic in 2005.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Feb 5, 2018 5:25:22 GMT -5 @zach808 said:

How does Aerosmith stack up? Huge in the early 70s, pretty much faded away entirely in the late 70s/early 80s, and then absolutely exploded during the late 80s and through the entirety of the 90s before finally fading away after one last hit in 2001.

Now, they have their fair share of hits, but they’re not usually that big on the H100. When it comes to album sales, though, they had 2 gold albums in the early 80s followed by a 5x platinum and 2 7x platinum albums.

The thing about Aerosmith is they had a top 10 hits in 1976-7 with Dream On and Walk This Way and didn't have any top 20 songs until getting 3 from Permanent Vacation (including #3 peaking Angel), followed by 3 top 10 hits from Pump and a 4 top 40 hits (yes, they all made either the 1993 or 1994 year-end) from Get a Grip. I was a huge fan of theirs especially of those last two albums. I even went to a concert when they had released the latter album.

[jenglisbe]

Feb 5, 2018 21:54:44 GMT -5 jebsib said:

Elvis in 1969 was considered the biggest comeback of all time (at the time), with the media convinced he was lost to a by-gone (pre-Beatle) era.

Good call! He came back big with a string of hits, a highly rated special, etc.

Kylie Minogue came back hard in the U.S. in '02 after 13 years.

Eh. She had 1 big hit and then went away again. That was a surprise of sorts, but she belongs in the one-off category if we're talking U.S.