jhomes87
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Post by jhomes87 on Dec 11, 2018 18:30:13 GMT -5
I think the chart is set up perfectly for this song to spend at least 4 weeks at #1. Next week it should easily be #1. Then the gap between "Speechless" and the next group of songs by Dustin Lynch, Dierks Bentley and Kip Moore is so huge right now that D+S would naturally get 2 weeks at #1. After that, there's the holiday slowdown where everything slows down for a couple weeks, that should keep them at the top through the holidays giving them a month long run at #1. I agree 100%. "Speechless" should hit #1 on Mediabase by tomorrow morning or Thursday morning at the absolute latest, and it's such a huge hit with such a big lead over the next batch of #1 contenders (Dierks, Thomas, and Dustin) that it should easily stay at #1 for a while. I think 4 weeks seems pretty likely, but it could even end up at the top spot for even longer than that.
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KanenrĂĄ:ke
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Post by KanenrĂĄ:ke on Dec 11, 2018 18:54:19 GMT -5
Iâd love to see a 6 week song again but I donât know if itâll be in the cards. This does seem set up to maybe come close.
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Post by travelrocks24 on Dec 12, 2018 7:40:52 GMT -5
I think the chart is set up perfectly for this song to spend at least 4 weeks at #1. Next week it should easily be #1. Then the gap between "Speechless" and the next group of songs by Dustin Lynch, Dierks Bentley and Kip Moore is so huge right now that D+S would naturally get 2 weeks at #1. After that, there's the holiday slowdown where everything slows down for a couple weeks, that should keep them at the top through the holidays giving them a month long run at #1. I agree 100%. "Speechless" should hit #1 on Mediabase by tomorrow morning or Thursday morning at the absolute latest, and it's such a huge hit with such a big lead over the next batch of #1 contenders (Dierks, Thomas, and Dustin) that it should easily stay at #1 for a while. I think 4 weeks seems pretty likely, but it could even end up at the top spot for even longer than that. It is #1 on MB today: 5 1 DAN + SHAY Speechless 7584 7123 461 44.88 1 2 KANE BROWN Lose It 7079 8224 -1145 46.504 3 3 MITCHELL TENPENNY Drunk Me 7150 7286 -136 44.693 4 4 LUKE COMBS She Got The Best Of Me 6956 7115 -159 46.317 2 5 JIMMIE ALLEN Best Shot 6699 7505 -806 46.819
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Post by ladyđfan on Dec 12, 2018 16:30:23 GMT -5
I think "All to Myself" should definitely be the next single, it's streaming extremely well for not being a single (32 million streams).
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Dec 13, 2018 2:05:00 GMT -5
I think "All to Myself" should definitely be the next single, it's streaming extremely well for not being a single (32 million streams). Funny you mention that song because The Highway is playing it now.
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jab820
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Post by jab820 on Dec 13, 2018 3:18:55 GMT -5
I think "All to Myself" should definitely be the next single, it's streaming extremely well for not being a single (32 million streams). Absolutely agreed. It was the second song they released as part of promo for the album and it reacted really well. Also, it would be smart to send out an undeniable up-tempo to radio after such a long streak of ballad-y songs (aside from Road Trippin').
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 14, 2018 10:55:25 GMT -5
Yeah, I'd be surprised if "All to Myself" wasn't next based on the consumer interest in it thus far. They definitely need to go uptempo next, regardless. I think that "Alone Together" and "Make or Break" sound like they'd be solid uptempo choices for radio as well, but "All to Myself" seems to have resonated the best. Then they can do the Kelly Clarkson duet fourth and they're looking at a truly massive era imo.
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Post by ladyđfan on Dec 18, 2018 22:20:10 GMT -5
Itâs surreal how high Dan + Shayâs starpower has risen in 2018. Just a year and a half ago âHow Not Toâ hit #1 in 38 weeks, DOUBLE the amount of time it took âSpeechlessâ to hit the top. This could be the album era that turns them into A-listers.
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zaclord đ
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Post by zaclord đ on Dec 19, 2018 22:13:12 GMT -5
I'm fine with All to Myself next as long as Keeping Score doesn't get overlooked. I need that to be a smash
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fearlessarrow
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Post by fearlessarrow on Dec 27, 2018 0:45:23 GMT -5
Itâs surreal how high Dan + Shayâs starpower has risen in 2018. Just a year and a half ago âHow Not Toâ hit #1 in 38 weeks, DOUBLE the amount of time it took âSpeechlessâ to hit the top. This could be the album era that turns them into A-listers. Been a while since this post has been made, but I share the same sentiment. It took a while for "From the Ground Up" and "How Not To" to climb to #1, and then there was "Road Trippin'" that completely bombed. And then they turn around and release two of the biggest country hits of the year. Truly amazing.
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bamaefule
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Post by bamaefule on Dec 27, 2018 2:18:58 GMT -5
Iâm partial to âWhat Keeps You Up At Nightâ, but it might be a bit too mid-tempo after their ballads.
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Dec 30, 2018 14:38:55 GMT -5
It is almost certainly too late at this point, but I'd like to say it anyway.
My apologies for trashing this thread. I got too overcome by my dislike of the song, and it let my emotions get out of hand.
I still find the song offensive to my personal tastes. That is probably not going to change. But regardless of what I think of the song -- regardless of what message I think the song is conveying -- I shouldn't bash the creators of the song, nor anybody that likes it. In short, a message of romance is a positive one, and I should not hate on anything that spreads positivity. Romantic imagery by itself is not why I like or dislike any "wedding song".
Anything that brings the song down for me is largely my own perception of both the song and the artists behind it. To me, both this song and most of Dan + Shay's output in general come down to how I perceive them and their work, and so far my perception of them has been largely unfavorable. I was letting that perception cloud my thoughts so much that it was, to say the least, stepping on a lot of toes here, and for that I apologize.
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vann
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Post by vann on Jan 3, 2019 20:08:08 GMT -5
Yeah, I'd be surprised if "All to Myself" wasn't next based on the consumer interest in it thus far. They definitely need to go uptempo next, regardless. I think that "Alone Together" and "Make or Break" sound like they'd be solid uptempo choices for radio as well, but "All to Myself" seems to have resonated the best. Then they can do the Kelly Clarkson duet fourth and they're looking at a truly massive era imo. I agree the next one has to be uptempo. The choices you mentioned I would be happy with any of them..."Make or Break" is one of my favorites on the album.I gotta say it took me some time to like "Keeping Score" and I am a big fan of Kelly but this duet didnt caught my attention on the first listen buy now I get it if it becomes a single anytime.
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Post by Naos on Jan 7, 2019 17:15:40 GMT -5
Hot 100: #24 (+17)
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Jan 8, 2019 12:14:18 GMT -5
Does anyone think this song wouldâve got 4 weeks at #1 had it peaked there in the spring/summer?
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Post by Naos on Jan 8, 2019 15:37:53 GMT -5
"How the hell did these guys out of all country artists, become so big?". I'll just say what I said on Twitter because Dan + Shay apparently liked it.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 8, 2019 16:24:51 GMT -5
Does anyone think this song wouldâve got 4 weeks at #1 had it peaked there in the spring/summer? No. Get Along by Kenny Chesney would have kicked Dan + Shay out of the top spot like he did with Tequila.
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justin5545
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Post by justin5545 on Jan 8, 2019 20:55:44 GMT -5
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jan 9, 2019 5:18:35 GMT -5
Does anyone think this song wouldâve got 4 weeks at #1 had it peaked there in the spring/summer? I highly doubt it. The research isn't that great , and the peak airplay numbers are relatively low compared to other #1 songs. That's partially because this hit #1 over Christmas break when all the radio stations and labels were closed, and partially because there was a roughly 1000 spin gap between this and the next song in line for #1 (Good Girl) so Dan and Shay's team didn't need to push for a lot of spins like labels usually do, but it's still a sign that this wasn't really too big a hit.
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jhomes87
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Post by jhomes87 on Jan 9, 2019 17:00:27 GMT -5
Does anyone think this song wouldâve got 4 weeks at #1 had it peaked there in the spring/summer? I highly doubt it. The research isn't that great , and the peak airplay numbers are relatively low compared to other #1 songs. That's partially because this hit #1 over Christmas break when all the radio stations and labels were closed, and partially because there was a roughly 1000 spin gap between this and the next song in line for #1 (Good Girl) so Dan and Shay's team didn't need to push for a lot of spins like labels usually do, but it's still a sign that this wasn't really too big a hit. Well, any song that goes #1 at this time of year tends to have lower peak airplay and peak spin numbers than what we see in the other 45-50 weeks of the year due to the influx of Christmas songs and year-end countdown shows, plus the fact that Mediabase audience generally is lower during the wintertime. I do think "Speechless" would have still spent at least 2 weeks at #1 at any other point of the year, and would have had a good chance of 3 weeks at #1. But 4 weeks probably wouldn't have happened, I agree. As it stands, "Speechless" might be able to get a 5th week at #1 if it can hold off "Good Girl". Dustin should get the #1 spot on Mediabase pretty easily, but he's still a ways behind Dan + Shay in audience and "Speechless" isn't falling yet, so I think there's a chance that "Speechless" could hang on to the #1 spot on Billboard for one more week. With sales and streaming factored in, I'd say this was a pretty mammoth hit, although not quite as big as "Tequila". It's still a bummer that "Tequila" couldn't hit #1 on Hot Country Songs like "Speechless" was able to do.
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Post by ladyđfan on Jan 9, 2019 18:05:40 GMT -5
I highly doubt it. The research isn't that great , and the peak airplay numbers are relatively low compared to other #1 songs. That's partially because this hit #1 over Christmas break when all the radio stations and labels were closed, and partially because there was a roughly 1000 spin gap between this and the next song in line for #1 (Good Girl) so Dan and Shay's team didn't need to push for a lot of spins like labels usually do, but it's still a sign that this wasn't really too big a hit. It's still a bummer that "Tequila" couldn't hit #1 on Hot Country Songs like "Speechless" was able to do. I think "Tequila" still has a chance, because rising airplay from Pop and HAC has largely kept it afloat in terms of sales, streams, and most importantly radio. Even though it's recurrent on the Hot 100, it would still be between #25 and #30 if it re-entered. If "Speechless" falls below that level then "Tequila" could be #1 :)
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jan 9, 2019 20:28:46 GMT -5
First of all, my apologies for posting that tiny screenshot of the Mediabase callout report as an attachment without including the headings for the data. The full callout report can be read here, but as I'm sure everyone knows, this is just a general overview of research, and each individual radio station conducts its own market surveys. Second of all, I agree this has definitely been a monster hit in sales and streaming. I guess I'm just wondering how relevant sales and streams really are anymore when it comes to judging hits. No one's really buying music anymore. Labels are having to find alternative ways to make money because records just don't sell like they used to. Speechless, for example, has sold 278,000 units in its entire run, per the latest digital country track downloads report published at Roughstock. That's 278,000 people. There's some 325.7 million people in the United States, so about 0.0008535462% of the country has downloaded the song. Meanwhile, just in a single week, country radio gets, what? 30 or 40 million unique listeners? That's at least around .1% of the population. Meanwhile, Speechless, the top-selling country track, sold only 17,000 units last week, which is somewhere around .000425% of the radio-listening population in a given week. It just seems to me that sales are completely dwarfed in comparison to the numbers of listeners radio pulls in. So shouldn't we be using callout surveys that are conducted using random sampling of actual radio listeners to identify the hits, rather than examining the tiny crumbs songs are making on iTunes? The best analogy I can think of is election polling data. How would you rather estimate who voters are likely to support in the upcoming presidential election - random digit dialing, or going into a coffee shop in Michigan and interviewing everyone there at 9am on a Saturday morning? That's kind of how I see the comparison between research and sales. Research is an actual representative sample of the radio-listening population, which numbers in the tens of millions. Sales is such a tiny, irrelevant segment of the population that I don't trust it to make decisions about which songs are big hits. It just reminds me of how the media tries to create a story out of a few people tweeting about something on social media or a large crowd at a political rally. It's such a tiny, non-representative sample of the population that it doesn't mean anything. It's like an ant pile in the grand scheme of things. Bill Maher actually did a great job of explaining the point I'm trying desperately to get at, if anyone's interested in watching a short, relatively non-partisan segment he did a while back. Anyway, I hope I'm making sense. I'm quite tired as my suitemates' fire alarm was going off all night last night so I haven't slept in over a day. But I hope there's some valuable content in this post that we can build a discussion on. I'd love to hear others' thoughts on this, although it might be best to take it to a new thread if it veers to far from Speechless. The Eeyore in me is saying, "Unfortunately, Good Girl's probably gonna lock it up this week and finish at #1 on both charts," while the Tigger in me is saying "Finally, Good Girl will get #1 this week so it can start falling next week and I won't have to keep changing the station when it comes on in my car."
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Post by ladyđfan on Jan 9, 2019 20:48:56 GMT -5
^ I agree that sales definitely arenât what they used to be, but streaming is a HUGE factor when it comes to a songâs popularity. Radio may not put much stock into it now, but it will become a force to be reckoned with in the future. Also, callout is inherently flawed (e.g. females always getting lower callout scores than men) so it really shouldnât be used as the main judgement for how many people want to listen to the song.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Jan 10, 2019 16:41:16 GMT -5
It's crazy to think this but if American Top 40 still used the Hot 100 Airplay chart like they did back in the day, multiple country songs would be getting played and this one would be at #17 on that list. Actually 10 country songs would be played on the show. This, "Sixteen", "Good Girl", "Best Shot", "She Got The Best Of Me, "Last Shot", "Burning Man", "Girl Like You", "This Is It" and "What Makes You Country". It would be even more interesting if Casey Kasem was still alive and hosting the show to hear him counting the songs down. Casey and Bob Kingsley were both a part of my teenage/high school years. I always loved tuning in every weekend to hear them countdown the hits!
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 10, 2019 16:57:03 GMT -5
It's crazy to think this but if American Top 40 still used the Hot 100 Airplay chart like they did back in the day, multiple country songs would be getting played and this one would be at #17 on that list. Actually 10 country songs would be played on the show. This, "Sixteen", "Good Girl", "Best Shot", "She Got The Best Of Me, "Last Shot", "Burning Man", "Girl Like You", "This Is It" and "What Makes You Country". It would be even more interesting if Casey Kasem was still alive and hosting the show to hear him counting the songs down. Casey and Bob Kingsley were both a part of my teenage/high school years. I always loved tuning in every weekend to hear them countdown the hits! Ooohhh...How many times Kingsley and/or Kasem would be playing Meant To Be?
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Jan 10, 2019 17:38:06 GMT -5
It's crazy to think this but if American Top 40 still used the Hot 100 Airplay chart like they did back in the day, multiple country songs would be getting played and this one would be at #17 on that list. Actually 10 country songs would be played on the show. This, "Sixteen", "Good Girl", "Best Shot", "She Got The Best Of Me, "Last Shot", "Burning Man", "Girl Like You", "This Is It" and "What Makes You Country". It would be even more interesting if Casey Kasem was still alive and hosting the show to hear him counting the songs down. Casey and Bob Kingsley were both a part of my teenage/high school years. I always loved tuning in every weekend to hear them countdown the hits! Ooohhh...How many times Kingsley and/or Kasem would be playing Meant To Be? Kasem used the Radio Songs chart starting in the late 80's I believe it was. All I remember is he used the Hot 100 from the Countdown's start in 1970 all the way up until November 23, 1988 then on the Nov. 30 Countdown he switched to the Radio Songs/Hot 100 Airplay chart At the time this happened Kasem was not the host it was Shadoe Stevens hosting the show. Anyways the funny part about this was Michael Jackson's "Black Or White" was at #32 on the Nov. 23 chart then when they switched to Airplay it was at #2 I believe and Shadoe even says here's Michael Jackson up 30 spots this week to #2. Also a lot of songs that left the chart on Nov. 23 re-entered Nov. 30. Anyways I just thought it would be very interesting even if Ryan Seacrest used the Radio Songs/Hot 100 Airplay chart, that we'd be hearing a lot of country songs on a pop station.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jan 11, 2019 19:17:01 GMT -5
Okay, so Speechless has 64,389,077 streams at the time of this post. Country radio estimates about 30-40 million (correct me if I'm wrong) listeners in a single week. Streaming has been dwarfed by radio.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jan 12, 2019 4:04:52 GMT -5
^ I agree that sales definitely arenât what they used to be, but streaming is a HUGE factor when it comes to a songâs popularity. Radio may not put much stock into it now, but it will become a force to be reckoned with in the future. Also, callout is inherently flawed (e.g. females always getting lower callout scores than men) so it really shouldnât be used as the main judgement for how many people want to listen to the song. Why do you think this is so?
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jan 12, 2019 12:53:11 GMT -5
^ I agree that sales definitely arenât what they used to be, but streaming is a HUGE factor when it comes to a songâs popularity. Radio may not put much stock into it now, but it will become a force to be reckoned with in the future. Also, callout is inherently flawed (e.g. females always getting lower callout scores than men) so it really shouldnât be used as the main judgement for how many people want to listen to the song. Why do you think this is so? Because there isn't enough of them in regular rotation on the radio and the consumer base who is tapped for the callout feedback is conditioned to not favor female voices. They usually test very poorly, even when their songs are connecting well in other ways like streaming or selling well. Callout is very flawed.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 12, 2019 13:42:48 GMT -5
Why do you think this is so? Because there isn't enough of them in regular rotation on the radio and the consumer base who is tapped for the callout feedback is conditioned to not favor female voices. They usually test very poorly, even when their songs are connecting well in other ways like streaming or selling well. Callout is very flawed. Besides Sugarland with "Babe" what female song has had great streaming and sales in the past year or so? The last 2 Maren Morris singles were pretty middle of the road hits, "Legends" was one of the weakest #1s impact wise, "Cry Pretty" underperformed sales wise, finally "Hide The Wine" and Heart Break" could never really take off sales wise. Callout is very flawed, but what is radio supposed to do, ignore callout scores? Because that seems very risky and I think country radio could lose the listeners they do have and revenue. They've kind of painted themselves into a corner, because the more they try to ignore callout scores and push women forward, the less listeners they will recieve and lose interest, due to them catering to such a specific group of fans. If they keep ignoring females in country music, than they are looked at as sexist assholes to every outside person looking in, and that is not a good look in 2019. They are essential in a no win position.
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