gardyfan
2x Platinum Member
Bad Mother Trucker
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 2,718
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Post by gardyfan on Jun 11, 2019 12:54:46 GMT -5
Ever since someone compared this to his to his Spring Break releases, I've been convinced that's what this was. Is there an actual new album in sight? Last year was the final spring break release.
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 11, 2019 18:55:46 GMT -5
I think it's safe to say this is a flop by Luke Bryan's standards. It looks like Universal's going to push this as long as they can, but it'll only make it to #6 or 7. Super embarrassing for a Luke Bryan lead single. This just isn't connecting with listeners I guess. There's a new Luke in town, lol. You've made the argument that this is flopping in the thread on two separate occasions now and both times the majority disagreed, so not sure how you've drawn the conclusion that it's "safe to say this is a flop," lol. As zjames said, this one is doing well on all fronts despite moving up the airplay charts a little slower (selling and streaming very well). I still think it got off to a slower start by being launched at the same time as Blake Shelton's lead single and "God's Country" blew up into an unusually huge hit for him, which caused Luke to take a back seat to it, but it's still moving along at a decent clip considering how crowded the charts are. By all measures, this single is easily out-performing "Light It Up" (his last lead single), and I think this one is still headed for #1.
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seak05
2x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2016
Posts: 2,178
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Post by seak05 on Jun 11, 2019 20:00:18 GMT -5
This single isn't even remotely a flop. It's chart run is a bit surprising to me. Leaving God's Country out of it, it's also been blown past by Luke C's single. It's also now at 11 weeks on the chart, and not even top 15. Now for any other artist, it would be moving fast, but Luke has hit #1 in 11 weeks. I still think it has a chance at #1, especially with its strong sales. I am just quirking an eyebrow that radio didn't send a brand new Luke song flying up the charts.
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recordyear
Diamond Member
album listener
Joined: January 2017
Posts: 14,661
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Post by recordyear on Jun 27, 2019 23:22:22 GMT -5
Music video.
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Post by straitouttanashville on Jun 27, 2019 23:38:12 GMT -5
I think it's safe to say this is a flop by Luke Bryan's standards. It looks like Universal's going to push this as long as they can, but it'll only make it to #6 or 7. Super embarrassing for a Luke Bryan lead single. This just isn't connecting with listeners I guess. There's a new Luke in town, lol. You've made the argument that this is flopping in the thread on two separate occasions now and both times the majority disagreed, so not sure how you've drawn the conclusion that it's "safe to say this is a flop," lol. As zjames said, this one is doing well on all fronts despite moving up the airplay charts a little slower (selling and streaming very well). I still think it got off to a slower start by being launched at the same time as Blake Shelton's lead single and "God's Country" blew up into an unusually huge hit for him, which caused Luke to take a back seat to it, but it's still moving along at a decent clip considering how crowded the charts are. By all measures, this single is easily out-performing "Light It Up" (his last lead single), and I think this one is still headed for #1. This is for sure flopping by Luke Bryan standards, and its really not arguable. Its just a terrible song and not even Luke Bryan can get this to number 1 in less then 15 weeks. Bryan should just move on. This won't be a number 1.
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LBTrocks
Diamond Member
Joined: September 2012
Posts: 17,165
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Post by LBTrocks on Jun 27, 2019 23:38:23 GMT -5
This is awful. The instrumentation is absolutely dreadful, the snap clapping is annoying as ever, and the melody is painfully corny. Hard pass on this one.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jun 28, 2019 3:31:00 GMT -5
The lyrics are also dreadful. Who thought of, "these boots need knockin'?" What does that even mean? And I'm so over the creepy "boys like me need girls like you to kiss me" stuff. It's basically an attempt to revive bro country but less catchy. Maybe it's because I've matured, or maybe it's because I've now been sexually assaulted but I'm tired of the catcalling from men. I used to think it was cute and funny, but now it just feels creepy and I just want men to be nice and pleasant and not so pushy about wanting sex, instead of just trying to get us drunk and sleep with us. Hopefully this fizzles out around #6 and Luke Bryan's team takes a long, hard look at the kind of music they're throwing out. I kind of like Sam Hunt's approach to country radio. Basically, if you don't have anything to say, don't say anything at all. Don't just release music for the sake of releasing music. Luke should come back when he has something interesting to offer, instead of just feeding us the same old boring crap he always throws out there. No thanks.
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 28, 2019 8:40:06 GMT -5
The lyrics are also dreadful. Who thought of, "these boots need knockin'?" It's built around a sex euphemism. Basically, it's the same reason why we got "Whose Bed Have Your Boots Been Under?" by Shania Twain, though that's obviously a much more clever and interesting song than Luke's is.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jul 5, 2019 15:31:05 GMT -5
Wow. This is actually testing really well. Maybe y'all were right and radio is just more concerned with sales. It's being out-sold by Luke Combs and Blake Shelton, so radio probably is more excited about those, but it'll get its turn at #1. Interesting. I'm willing to admit I'm wrong. I may disagree with considering sales and streaming, but it sure seems that radio is willing to take this to the top, but rather slowly due to weaker sales than Blake and Combs.
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rsmatto
6x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2008
Posts: 6,528
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Post by rsmatto on Jul 5, 2019 15:39:30 GMT -5
Wow. This is actually testing really well. Maybe y'all were right and radio is just more concerned with sales. It's being out-sold by Luke Combs and Blake Shelton, so radio probably is more excited about those, but it'll get its turn at #1. Interesting. I'm willing to admit I'm wrong. I may disagree with considering sales and streaming, but it sure seems that radio is willing to take this to the top, but rather slowly due to weaker sales than Blake and Combs. Radio doesn’t really care too much about sales though. They care about what audience likes in terms of research. That’s how songs with few sales end up high on the charts, especially when from superstars.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jul 5, 2019 15:46:59 GMT -5
Wow. This is actually testing really well. Maybe y'all were right and radio is just more concerned with sales. It's being out-sold by Luke Combs and Blake Shelton, so radio probably is more excited about those, but it'll get its turn at #1. Interesting. I'm willing to admit I'm wrong. I may disagree with considering sales and streaming, but it sure seems that radio is willing to take this to the top, but rather slowly due to weaker sales than Blake and Combs. Radio doesn’t really care too much about sales though. They care about what audience likes in terms of research. That’s how songs with few sales end up high on the charts, especially when from superstars. That's what I suspected. Honestly I don't appreciate being yelled at and told to go the fuck away for mentioning that. But it's fine. We'll move on.
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Post by Naos on Jul 5, 2019 15:56:04 GMT -5
Wow. This is actually testing really well. Maybe y'all were right and radio is just more concerned with sales. It's being out-sold by Luke Combs and Blake Shelton, so radio probably is more excited about those, but it'll get its turn at #1. Interesting. I'm willing to admit I'm wrong. I may disagree with considering sales and streaming, but it sure seems that radio is willing to take this to the top, but rather slowly due to weaker sales than Blake and Combs. Radio doesn’t really care too much about sales though. They care about what audience likes in terms of research. That’s how songs with few sales end up high on the charts, especially when from superstars. Not always though. If no one is buying or streaming it, it can stand to reason very few actually like it.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jul 5, 2019 16:00:49 GMT -5
Radio doesn’t really care too much about sales though. They care about what audience likes in terms of research. That’s how songs with few sales end up high on the charts, especially when from superstars. Not always though. If no one is buying or streaming it, it can stand to reason very few actually like it. This is why research and callout debate comes up in every thread. It's inevitable when you want to discuss whether a song is a hit or not. I'll stay out of it for now.
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rsmatto
6x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2008
Posts: 6,528
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Post by rsmatto on Jul 5, 2019 16:02:34 GMT -5
Radio doesn’t really care too much about sales though. They care about what audience likes in terms of research. That’s how songs with few sales end up high on the charts, especially when from superstars. Not always though. If no one is buying or streaming it, it can stand to reason very few actually like it. Maybe. But radio does stuff for radio, so if it’s inoffensive enough (based on testing) and keeps listeners for the commercials, they’ll play it. And play it a lot.
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Post by Naos on Jul 5, 2019 16:09:59 GMT -5
Not always though. If no one is buying or streaming it, it can stand to reason very few actually like it. Maybe. But radio does stuff for radio, so if it’s inoffensive enough (based on testing) and keeps listeners for the commercials, they’ll play it. And play it a lot. But even if a song like "God's Country" had bad testing, you don't think radio would play it considering how many people obviously like the song?
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jul 5, 2019 16:18:52 GMT -5
Maybe. But radio does stuff for radio, so if it’s inoffensive enough (based on testing) and keeps listeners for the commercials, they’ll play it. And play it a lot. But even if a song like "God's Country" had bad testing, you don't think radio would play it considering how many people obviously like the song? But what we've been trying to say is that's not a lot of people at all when compared to the tens of millions of iisteners who dislike it.
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Post by Naos on Jul 5, 2019 16:23:08 GMT -5
But even if a song like "God's Country" had bad testing, you don't think radio would play it considering how many people obviously like the song? But what we've been trying to say is that's not a lot of people at all when compared to the tens of millions of iisteners who dislike it. I mean, it's already been argued why your reasoning is flawed. It'd be like getting 100 people sampled for their opinion on a video game, and 40 liking it means 4/10 of the US population likes it.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jul 5, 2019 16:38:37 GMT -5
But what we've been trying to say is that's not a lot of people at all when compared to the tens of millions of iisteners who dislike it. I mean, it's already been argued why your reasoning is flawed. It'd be like getting 100 people sampled for their opinion on a video game, and 40 liking it means 4/10 of the US population likes it. I guess the bottom line is, radio uses research. Sales and streaming have a separate chart, the Hot Country Songs and Hot 100. You can use whichever chart you prefer to determine if a song's a hit. This will hit the top based on good research alone, but it may take quite a few months due to the backlog with Blake and Combs.
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raylatch98
7x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2018
Posts: 7,717
Pronouns: He/Him/His
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Post by raylatch98 on Jul 5, 2019 16:59:00 GMT -5
Honestly with country radio, testing obviously should be a factor, but never the absolute main or only driving factor. Like it or not, sales and streaming are what define most music listeners nowadays. People use Spotify, iTunes, and YouTube to also find music.
For country radio it should be like 30% testing, 40% sales and streaming, and 30% general radio promotion and relationship with artist in regards to country radio imo.
That's all I have to say on the matter.
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Post by Naos on Jul 5, 2019 17:06:56 GMT -5
I mean, it's already been argued why your reasoning is flawed. It'd be like getting 100 people sampled for their opinion on a video game, and 40 liking it means 4/10 of the US population likes it. I guess the bottom line is, radio uses research. Sales and streaming have a separate chart, the Hot Country Songs and Hot 100. You can use whichever chart you prefer to determine if a song's a hit. This will hit the top based on good research alone, but it may take quite a few months due to the backlog with Blake and Combs. Radio does. But they also do care about sales and streaming. If a song is extremely commercially successful, they typically won't ignore it.
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jul 5, 2019 17:15:02 GMT -5
But even if a song like "God's Country" had bad testing, you don't think radio would play it considering how many people obviously like the song? But what we've been trying to say is that's not a lot of people at all when compared to the tens of millions of iisteners who dislike it. Radio is a passive listening experience for 99% of people. "Tens of millions of listeners" are not represented by callout research; it's a very small percentage of them, and there are more people buying/streaming the major hits than there are people who are responding to any kind of surveys. Since you also brought up sales, I'd like to point out that "Knockin' Boots" has sold respectably for its entire run (and much better than "Light It Up," his last lead single), and its *literally* right behind Blake Shelton and Luke Combs on the iTunes chart. The way you talk about it, you'd think it was selling the way Justin Moore's single is, but this has regularly been in the top 20 all-genre of iTunes for awhile now.
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Jul 5, 2019 17:22:41 GMT -5
I’m so tired of this s**t, I don’t even feel like arguing anymore. Just accept that 99% of people here don’t want to hear these contrarian arguments and say something meaningful to add to the discussion.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jul 5, 2019 17:43:19 GMT -5
Getting this thread back on track, this now looks like it'll be a slow-climbing #1. Maybe it'll hit the top mid-September. My estimate would be in week 24. That's quite a slow climber for an A-lister's lead single, but I guess the charts are just getting slower and slower these days.
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musicspy
Gold Member
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 960
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Post by musicspy on Jul 5, 2019 18:47:52 GMT -5
This seems to be connecting well on callouts,sales and streams. I don't see why not hit the top spot.
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rsmatto
6x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2008
Posts: 6,528
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Post by rsmatto on Jul 6, 2019 8:28:58 GMT -5
I guess the bottom line is, radio uses research. Sales and streaming have a separate chart, the Hot Country Songs and Hot 100. You can use whichever chart you prefer to determine if a song's a hit. This will hit the top based on good research alone, but it may take quite a few months due to the backlog with Blake and Combs. Radio does. But they also do care about sales and streaming. If a song is extremely commercially successful, they typically won't ignore it. They totally ignore successful songs. “Tennessee Whiskey” is Stapleton’s biggest selling single and was never a radio hit. They could’ve requested it or outright play it (and NashFM in Nashville DOES, like it’s a gold recurrent) but they didn’t. There are many other examples of “hits” people liked/loved in the streaming era that weren’t radio hits. Radio likes and feels they make stars so they’re always reluctant to play streaming or satellite-broken stars unless forced to (almost always with a new song though).
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Post by Naos on Jul 6, 2019 13:24:55 GMT -5
Radio does. But they also do care about sales and streaming. If a song is extremely commercially successful, they typically won't ignore it. They totally ignore successful songs. “Tennessee Whiskey” is Stapleton’s biggest selling single and was never a radio hit. They could’ve requested it or outright play it (and NashFM in Nashville DOES, like it’s a gold recurrent) but they didn’t. There are many other examples of “hits” people liked/loved in the streaming era that weren’t radio hits. Radio likes and feels they make stars so they’re always reluctant to play streaming or satellite-broken stars unless forced to (almost always with a new song though). If I remember correctly, that was never officially pushed to radio. I don't see them caring much about callout for "Beer Never Broke My Heart". To say people like these country Top 40/30 hits on the Hot 100, less than the ones that barely even made the 50s if they're lucky, is asinine.
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Jul 6, 2019 14:04:48 GMT -5
Another thing to note is that “Beautiful Crazy” got about the same amount of unsolicited airplay before it was sent to radio as “Tennessee Whiskey”, and it became a 7 week #1. Oh, and who could forget “Girl Crush”? From what I remember, that tested pretty abysmally and it still got to #3 because of its massive consumer response.
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jul 6, 2019 15:02:34 GMT -5
Lol yeah, if "Tennessee Whiskey" had been sent to radio it would've been a hit. Radio still played it enough that it charted anyway without them promoting it to radio, so this idea that they wouldn't have played it is immediately debunked by that alone. Radio as a collective whole isn't going to just randomly turn something into a big hit without it being an actual single promoted to them by a record label, but that's just a no brainer; everybody knows that already.
"Girl Crush" is a perfect example: it struggled in the 30s of the chart for awhile before it blew up and radio just couldn't ignore it with the impact it was havin on the general public. Obviously they put more stock in callout than they should, but commercial impact in sales/streaming is important too, especially in the long run to be able to sustain an artist's career.
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Marv
6x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2004
Posts: 6,308
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Post by Marv on Jul 7, 2019 12:23:09 GMT -5
I haven't like the song since the first time I heard it but in no way is it a flop, since country radio is NOT going to bail on a song by a core artist (check the chart run for the latest piece of crap by FGL), so if this snoozefest needs 18-20+ weeks to reach #1, then so be it.
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seak05
2x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2016
Posts: 2,178
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Post by seak05 on Jul 7, 2019 22:00:00 GMT -5
To be clear, looking at radio call out & sales, this is a big hit & Luke’s biggest in a while. It just sort of came out under the radar, between a lack of early promotion & especially debuting the same day as God’s Country.
Not sure why radio took a bit to warm to it, but it will certainly hit #1.
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