2024 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 12)

[plankton5165]

Not sure if I asked this before, but how many points does a song need to receive in order for that song to be considered locked?

[erosthegreekgod]

Feb 11, 2024 16:23:21 GMT -5 plankton5165 said:

Not sure if I asked this before, but how many points does a song need to receive in order for that song to be considered locked?

Talk of the Charts has the cutoff at 1200 I think, but throughout the chart year it could increase or decrease.

[rockgolf]

Feb 11, 2024 16:23:21 GMT -5 plankton5165 said:

Not sure if I asked this before, but how many points does a song need to receive in order for that song to be considered locked?

On my chart, 1600.

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 17}1 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 5032
2 Lovin on Me (Jack Harlow) 4290
3 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 4078
4 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 3817
5 Snooze (SZA) 3790
6 Greedy (Tate McRae) 3655
7 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 2903
8 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 2884
9 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 2724
10 Water (Tyla) 2719
11 Is It Over Now? (Taylor Swift) 2694
12 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 2621
13 Lose Control (Teddy Swims) 2543
14 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 2244.4
15 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2234
16 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 2079
17 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 2072.8
18 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 2029
19 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 2007
20 Fukumean (Gunna) 1958
21 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 1957
22 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 1927.6
23 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 1902.6
24 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 1893
25 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 1889.6
26 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 1831
27 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1817
28 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 1751.2
29 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1735
30 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 1678
31 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 1640
32 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 1607
33 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1595
34 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 1590.8
35 Used to Be Young (Miley Cyrus) 1574.8
36 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 1567
37 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 1521
38 Houdini (Dua Lipa) 1491.6
39 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 1479
40 World on Fire (Nate Smith) 1433
41 Strangers (Kenya Grace) 1419.6
42 Truck Bed (HARDY) 1350.6
43 500lbs (Lil Tecca) 1298
44 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1267
45 The Painter (Cody Johnson) 1259.6
46 Get Him Back! (Olivia Rodrigo) 1194.4
47 Harley Quinn (Fuerza Regida/Marshmello) 1153.6
48 Burn It Down (Parker McCollum) 1136
49 Standing Next to You (Jung Kook) 1132.6
50 Exes (Tate McRae) 1115.2
51 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 1101
52 Everybody (Nicki Minaj/Lil Uzi Vert) 1098
53 Virginia Beach (Drake) 1072.8
54 Perro Negro (Bad Bunny/Feid) 1066
55 You Broke My Heart (Drake) 1058.2
56 FTCU (Nicki Minaj) 1048.4
57 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 1038
58 Where the Wild Things Are (Luke Combs) 1022.2
59 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 1019
60 I Know ? (Travis Scott) 1018.8
61 Surround Sound (JID/21 Savage/Baby Tate) 1013.2
62 Que Onda (Calle 24/Chino Pacas/Fuerza Regida) 1004
63 Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor Swift) 958.6
64 Yes, And? (Ariana Grande) 951
65 La Diabla (Xavi) 947.6
66 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 942
67 Segun Quien (Maluma/Carin Leon) 921.6
68 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 921
69 Santa Tell Me (Ariana Grande) 916
70 Great Gatsby (Rod Wave) 889.2
71 Qlona (Karol G/Peso Pluma) 887.4
72 Kill Bill (SZA) 876
73 Never Lose Me (Flo Milli) 869.8
74 Hey Driver (Zach Bryan/The War and Treaty) 864.4
75 Can't Catch Me Now (Olivia Rodrigo) 844.8
76 Redrum (21 Savage) 829
77 Feather (Sabrina Carpenter) 814.4
78 Save Me the Trouble (Dan + Shay) 807
79 Bad Idea Right? (Olivia Rodrigo) 799.4
80 Slime You Out (Drake/SZA) 767.2
81 El Amor De Su Vida (Grupo Frontera/Grupo Firme) 752
82 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 750
83 Dial Drunk (Noah Kahan/Post Malone) 747
84 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) (Darlene Love) 734
85 Rich Men North of Richmond (Oliver Anthony Music) 724.4
86 Jingle Bells (Frank Sinatra) 706
87 Can't Have Mine (Dylan Scott) 695.2
88 Beautiful Things (Benson Boone) 694
89 Deck the Halls (Nat King Cole) 678
90 Different 'Round Here (Riley Green/Luke Combs) 676
91 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Michael Buble) 668
92 Blue Christmas (Elvis Presley) 662
93 Everything I Love (Morgan Wallen) 654.8
94 La Victima (Xavi) 650.8
95 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Perry Como and the Fontane Sisters/Mitchell Ayres and His Orchestra) 646
96 Slut! (Taylor Swift) 644.8
97 Northern Attitude (Noah Kahan/Hozier) 642
98 Bellakeo (Peso Pluma/Anitta) 638.4
99 What It Is (Block Boy) (Doechii/Kodak Black) 633.6
100 Here Comes Santa Claus (Down Santa Claus Lane) (Gene Autry) 632

[Groovy]

[whaleblubber]

^ Was going to post this, TOTC raised their YE cutoff. Not surprising, given that with the old cutoff there would be 40 songs locked by week 18.

[rockgolf]

My estimated current status of the year-end Top 100 (Feb 17, 2024).

And my estimate of where things will end up projecting out:

Proj. Year end	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Lovin On Me	Jack Harlow	8945
2	Cruel Summer	Taylor Swift	7949
3	Lose Control	Teddy Swims	6382
4	Snooze	SZA	6317
5	Greedy	Tate McRae	5874
6	I Remember Everything	Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves	5809
7	Paint The Town Red	Doja Cat	5348
8	Fast Car	Luke Combs	5159
9	Agora Hills	Doja Cat	4972
10	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	4428
11	Thinkin' Bout Me	Morgan Wallen	4264
12	Water	Tyla	4229
13	Beautiful Things	Benson Boone	4135
14	Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	4009
15	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	3997
16	Stick Season	Noah Kahan	3544
17	What Was I Made For?	Billie Eilish	3341
18	Rich Baby Daddy	Drake ft. Sexyy Red & SZA	2847
19	White Horse	Chris Stapleton	2682
20	Vampire	Olivia Rodrigo	2627
21	Pretty Little Poison	Warren Zeiders	2482
22	Houdini	Dua Lipa	2410
23	Need A Favor	Jelly Roll	2329
24	Fast Car	Tracy Chapman	2327
25	Redrum	21 Savage	2255
26	Lil Boo Thang	Paul Russell	2200
27	Fukumean	Gunna	2199
28	First Person Shooter	Drake ft. J. Cole	2190
29	Never Lose Me	Flo Milli	2180
30	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	2162
31	Dance The Night	Dua Lipa	2092
32	Save Me	Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson	2046
33	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	2012
34	Everybody	Nicki Minaj ft. Lil Uzi Vert	1984
35	Hiss	Megan Thee Stallion	1964
36	Wild Ones	Jessie Murph & Jelly Roll	1957
37	On My Mama	Victoria Monet	1947
38	Monaco	Bad Bunny	1933
39	IDGAF	Drake ft. Yeat	1928
40	Good Good	Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage	1862
41	The Painter	Cody Johnson	1841
42	Yes, And?	Ariana Grande	1835
43	La Diabla	Xavi	1801
44	My Love Mine All Mine	Mitski	1796
45	Where The Wild Things Are	Luke Combs	1736
46	Jingle Bell Rock	Bobby Helms	1694
47	Used To Be Young	Miley Cyrus	1689
48	Exes	Tate McRae	1594
49	World On Fire	Nate Smith	1590
50	Last Christmas	Wham!	1586
51	Strangers	Kenya Grace	1439
52	A Holly Jolly Christmas	Burl Ives	1435
53	Truck Bed	HARDY	1241
54	It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year	Andy Williams	1230
55	500lbs	Lil Tecca	1222
56	Made For Me	Muni Long	1202
57	Feather	Sabrina Carpenter	1191
58	Harley Quinn	Fuerza Regida & Marshmello	1172
59	Get Him Back!	Olivia Rodrigo	1157
60	Selfish	Justin Timberlake	1130
61	FTCU	Nicki Minaj	1127
62	Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow!	Dean Martin	1121
63	I Know ?	Travis Scott	1103
64	Sleigh Ride	The Ronettes	1094
65	Feliz Navidad	Jose Feliciano	1071
66	You Broke My Heart	Drake	1068
67	Surround Sound	JID ft. 21 Savage & Baby Tate	996
68	Underneath The Tree	Kelly Clarkson	967
69	The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You)	Nat "King" Cole	961
70	Virginia Beach	Drake	957

[PositivityMaster48]

Week 12:
x.com/austinrioux3/status/1757656701011194342?s=46&t=ngsT-XQzTiQibhDKlUBp5A

[puwrpler04]

Songs Locking soon by current pace
Cutoff up to 125,000
*Means at risk of falling off and missing (Most Likely From Kanye Album Bomb)

1 Week, Save Me* Pretty Little Poision,Flowers,Houdini,Wild Ones

2 Weeks, Dance The Night*On My Mama* World On Fire,Strangers*

3 Weeks, Truck Bed*

4 Weeks, The Painter* Everybody,

5 Weeks, Exes,Never Lose Me

6 Weeks, FTCU, Where The Wild Things Are,Yes And?,Red Rum

7 Weeks, Burn It Down* Surround Sound,La Diabla

8 Weeks, You Broke My Heart,Feather

[whaleblubber]

Since TOTC moved their YE cut off upwards (and I'm using their cutoffs as a basis) I'm gonna get rid of the "locking week" thing. It was getting really cluttered anyway.

Week 18 - February 24, 2024
LOCKED FOR TOP 25 (1 song)
*Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer

LOCKED FOR TOP 50 (9 songs)
*Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red
Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me
*SZA - Snooze
*Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything
Tate McRae - Greedy
*Morgan Wallen - Last Night
*Luke Combs - Fast Car
*Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me
Tyla - Water

LOCKED FOR TOP 100 (27 songs)
*Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You
*Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree
*Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock
*Wham! - Last Christmas
*Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas
Taylor Swift - Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]
Doja Cat - Agora Hills
Drake feat. Sexyy Red & SZA - Rich Baby Daddy
Drake feat. J. Cole - First Person Shooter
Paul Russell - Lil Boo Thang
Drake feat. Yeat - IDGAF
Teddy Swims - Lose Control
Chris Stapleton - White Horse
Miley Cyrus - Used To Be Young
*Gunna - Fukumean
Bad Bunny - Monaco
Noah Kahan - Stick Season
*Jelly Roll - Need A Favor
*Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For?
Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage - Good Good
*Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire
Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine
Jelly Roll feat. Lainey Wilson - Save Me
Warren Zeiders - Pretty Little Poison
*Miley Cyrus - Flowers
Dua Lipa - Houdini
Victoria Monét - On My Mama

First YE hit for Victoria Monét, and a record-extending 17th repeat with Flowers.

[plankton5165]

Feb 12, 2024 21:22:27 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Feb 11, 2024 16:23:21 GMT -5 plankton5165 said:

Not sure if I asked this before, but how many points does a song need to receive in order for that song to be considered locked?

On my chart, 1600.

What position do you expect a song with 1600 points to rank at?

[rockgolf]

Feb 18, 2024 22:33:02 GMT -5 plankton5165 said:

100

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 18}1 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 5289
2 Lovin on Me (Jack Harlow) 4690
3 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 4224
4 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 4038
5 Snooze (SZA) 4029
6 Greedy (Tate McRae) 3858
7 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 3081
8 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 3050
9 Water (Tyla) 2889
10 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 2882
11 Is It Over Now? (Taylor Swift) 2844
12 Lose Control (Teddy Swims) 2818
13 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 2795
14 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 2345.4
15 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2234
16 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 2214
17 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 2157.2
18 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 2079
19 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 2030.6
20 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 2007
21 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 1987.2
22 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 1985
23 Fukumean (Gunna) 1958
24 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 1957
25 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 1942
26 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 1930
27 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 1861.2
28 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1817
29 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 1794
30 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1735
31 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 1724.8
32 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 1702
33 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 1678
34 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 1663
35 Houdini (Dua Lipa) 1623.6
36 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 1618
37 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1595
38 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 1577
39 Used to Be Young (Miley Cyrus) 1574.8
40 World on Fire (Nate Smith) 1518.2
41 Truck Bed (HARDY) 1439.8
42 Strangers (Kenya Grace) 1419.6
43 The Painter (Cody Johnson) 1371.6
44 500lbs (Lil Tecca) 1298
45 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1267
46 Burn It Down (Parker McCollum) 1218
47 Harley Quinn (Fuerza Regida/Marshmello) 1215.6
48 Standing Next to You (Jung Kook) 1213.8
49 Exes (Tate McRae) 1208.2
50 Everybody (Nicki Minaj/Lil Uzi Vert) 1200
51 Get Him Back! (Olivia Rodrigo) 1194.4
52 Where the Wild Things Are (Luke Combs) 1146.2
53 You Broke My Heart (Drake) 1129
54 FTCU (Nicki Minaj) 1121.6
55 Perro Negro (Bad Bunny/Feid) 1116.8
56 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 1101
57 Surround Sound (JID/21 Savage/Baby Tate) 1100
58 La Diabla (Xavi) 1085.6
59 Virginia Beach (Drake) 1072.8
60 Yes, And? (Ariana Grande) 1071
61 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 1038
62 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 1019
63 I Know ? (Travis Scott) 1018.8
64 Never Lose Me (Flo Milli) 1009.8
65 Que Onda (Calle 24/Chino Pacas/Fuerza Regida) 1004
66 Redrum (21 Savage) 991
67 Beautiful Things (Benson Boone) 987
68 Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor Swift) 958.6
69 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 942
70 Segun Quien (Maluma/Carin Leon) 921.6
71 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 921
72 Santa Tell Me (Ariana Grande) 916
73 Feather (Sabrina Carpenter) 914.4
74 Great Gatsby (Rod Wave) 889.2
75 Qlona (Karol G/Peso Pluma) 887.4
76 Kill Bill (SZA) 876
77 Hey Driver (Zach Bryan/The War and Treaty) 864.4
78 Can't Catch Me Now (Olivia Rodrigo) 844.8
79 Save Me the Trouble (Dan + Shay) 807
80 Bad Idea Right? (Olivia Rodrigo) 799.4
81 Slime You Out (Drake/SZA) 767.2
82 El Amor De Su Vida (Grupo Frontera/Grupo Firme) 752
83 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 750
84 Dial Drunk (Noah Kahan/Post Malone) 747
85 La Victima (Xavi) 734.4
86 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) (Darlene Love) 734
87 Different 'Round Here (Riley Green/Luke Combs) 734
88 Rich Men North of Richmond (Oliver Anthony Music) 724.4
89 Northern Attitude (Noah Kahan/Hozier) 712
90 Jingle Bells (Frank Sinatra) 706
91 Bellakeo (Peso Pluma/Anitta) 698.8
92 Can't Have Mine (Dylan Scott) 695.2
93 Deck the Halls (Nat King Cole) 678
94 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Michael Buble) 668
95 Hiss (Megan Thee Stallion) 664
96 Blue Christmas (Elvis Presley) 662
97 Everything I Love (Morgan Wallen) 654.8
98 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Perry Como and the Fontane Sisters/Mitchell Ayres and His Orchestra) 646
99 Slut! (Taylor Swift) 644.8
100 What It Is (Block Boy) (Doechii/Kodak Black) 633.6

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[Groovy]

What a shame, barring a comeback or a low cutoff, Strangers will be in the outside looking in for the YE.

[rockgolf]

My Year-end estimates based on charts up to and including Feb 24, 2024:

Bold titles are those who have already qualified for the final top 100 (using my estimate).

And my projection of how songs already charting could end up:

Proj. Year end	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Lovin On Me	Jack Harlow	9379
2	Cruel Summer	Taylor Swift	7410
3	Snooze	SZA	6201
4	Greedy	Tate McRae	5974
5	I Remember Everything	Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves	5910
6	Lose Control	Teddy Swims	5411
7	Paint The Town Red	Doja Cat	5404
8	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	4608
9	Fast Car	Luke Combs	4545
10	Stick Season	Noah Kahan	4529
11	Thinkin' Bout Me	Morgan Wallen	4434
12	Water	Tyla	4393
13	Agora Hills	Doja Cat	4359
14	Texas Hold 'Em	Beyonce	4194
15	Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	4177
16	Beautiful Things	Benson Boone	4035
17	Carnival	¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign	3746
18	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	3348
19	What Was I Made For?	Billie Eilish	3011
20	Pretty Little Poison	Warren Zeiders	2624
21	Rich Baby Daddy	Drake ft. Sexyy Red & SZA	2615
22	Houdini	Dua Lipa	2534
23	Redrum	21 Savage	2418
24	Good Good	Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage	2405
25	First Person Shooter	Drake ft. J. Cole	2279
26	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	2162
27	White Horse	Chris Stapleton	2145
28	Vampire	Olivia Rodrigo	2138
29	Need A Favor	Jelly Roll	2108
30	Lil Boo Thang	Paul Russell	2102
31	Fukumean	Gunna	2099
32	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	2012
33	Never Lose Me	Flo Milli	1979
34	IDGAF	Drake ft. Yeat	1966
35	La Diabla	Xavi	1962
36	Monaco	Bad Bunny	1962
37	Save Me	Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson	1831
38	My Love Mine All Mine	Mitski	1796
39	Dance The Night	Dua Lipa	1773
40	Where The Wild Things Are	Luke Combs	1761
41	On My Mama	Victoria Monet	1713
42	The Painter	Cody Johnson	1703
43	Jingle Bell Rock	Bobby Helms	1694
44	Used To Be Young	Miley Cyrus	1689
45	Wild Ones	Jessie Murph & Jelly Roll	1632
46	Everybody	Nicki Minaj ft. Lil Uzi Vert	1617
47	Last Christmas	Wham!	1586
48	World On Fire	Nate Smith	1583
49	Yes, And?	Ariana Grande	1570
50	Fast Car	Tracy Chapman	1538
51	Strangers	Kenya Grace	1439
52	A Holly Jolly Christmas	Burl Ives	1435
53	Yeah!	Usher ft. Lil Jon & Ludacris	1432
54	Truck Bed	HARDY	1336
55	Exes	Tate McRae	1261
56	It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year	Andy Williams	1230
57	500lbs	Lil Tecca	1222
58	Harley Quinn	Fuerza Regida & Marshmello	1213
59	FTCU	Nicki Minaj	1182
60	Get Him Back!	Olivia Rodrigo	1157
61	Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow!	Dean Martin	1121
62	You Broke My Heart	Drake	1120
63	I Know ?	Travis Scott	1103
64	Sleigh Ride	The Ronettes	1094
65	Surround Sound	JID ft. 21 Savage & Baby Tate	1088
66	Feliz Navidad	Jose Feliciano	1071
67	Burn It Down	Parker McCollum	1042
68	Made For Me	Muni Long	972
69	Feather	Sabrina Carpenter	971
70	Underneath The Tree	Kelly Clarkson	967
71	Fuk Sumn	¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign	963
72	Standing Next To You	Jung Kook	961
73	The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You)	Nat "King" Cole	961
74	Virginia Beach	Drake	957
75	Santa Tell Me	Ariana Grande	956
76	Perro Negro	Bad Bunny & Feid	954
77	Back To Me	¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign	942
78	Kill Bill	SZA	940
79	Forever	Noah Kahan	929
80	Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	877
81	Selfish	Justin Timberlake	848
82	Talking	¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign ft. North West	821
83	White Christmas	Bing Crosby With Ken Darby Singers & John Scott Trotter & His Orchestra	797
84	Dial Drunk	Noah Kahan With Post Malone	797
85	Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)	Darlene Love	792
86	Jingle Bells	Frank Sinatra With The Orchestra & Chorus Of Gordon Jenkins	780
87	Qlona	Karol G & Peso Pluma	768
88	Can't Catch Me Now	Olivia Rodrigo	738
89	Deck The Halls	Nat King Cole	731
90	La Victima	Xavi	726
91	Bad Idea Right?	Olivia Rodrigo	721
92	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Michael Buble	718
93	Great Gatsby	Rod Wave	717
94	Blue Christmas	Elvis Presley	714
95	Segun Quien	Maluma & Carin Leon	701
96	Que Onda	Calle 24 x Chino Pacas x Fuerza Regida	691
97	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Perry Como And The Fontane Sisters With Mitchell Ayres And His Orchestra	688
98	Hey Driver	Zach Bryan ft. The War And Treaty	686
99	What It Is (Block Boy)	Doechii ft. Kodak Black	678
100	Here Comes Santa Claus (Right Down Santa Claus Lane)	Gene Autry	671

Carnival is likely to plummet next week, while Texas Hold 'Em is expected to rise to #1. That ought to be enough to project Beyonce into the year-end top 10, again especially true if radio picks up on this banger.

[puwrpler04]

Feb 22, 2024 12:12:53 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

My Year-end estimates based on charts up to and including Feb 24, 2024:

Bold titles are those who have already qualified for the final top 100 (using my estimate).

And my projection of how songs already charting could end up:

Proj. Year end	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Lovin On Me	Jack Harlow	9379
2	Cruel Summer	Taylor Swift	7410
3	Snooze	SZA	6201
4	Greedy	Tate McRae	5974
5	I Remember Everything	Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves	5910
6	Lose Control	Teddy Swims	5411
7	Paint The Town Red	Doja Cat	5404
8	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	4608
9	Fast Car	Luke Combs	4545
10	Stick Season	Noah Kahan	4529
11	Thinkin' Bout Me	Morgan Wallen	4434
12	Water	Tyla	4393
13	Agora Hills	Doja Cat	4359
14	Texas Hold 'Em	Beyonce	4194
15	Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	4177
16	Beautiful Things	Benson Boone	4035
17	Carnival	¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign	3746
18	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	3348
19	What Was I Made For?	Billie Eilish	3011
20	Pretty Little Poison	Warren Zeiders	2624
21	Rich Baby Daddy	Drake ft. Sexyy Red & SZA	2615
22	Houdini	Dua Lipa	2534
23	Redrum	21 Savage	2418
24	Good Good	Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage	2405
25	First Person Shooter	Drake ft. J. Cole	2279
26	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	2162
27	White Horse	Chris Stapleton	2145
28	Vampire	Olivia Rodrigo	2138
29	Need A Favor	Jelly Roll	2108
30	Lil Boo Thang	Paul Russell	2102
31	Fukumean	Gunna	2099
32	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	2012
33	Never Lose Me	Flo Milli	1979
34	IDGAF	Drake ft. Yeat	1966
35	La Diabla	Xavi	1962
36	Monaco	Bad Bunny	1962
37	Save Me	Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson	1831
38	My Love Mine All Mine	Mitski	1796
39	Dance The Night	Dua Lipa	1773
40	Where The Wild Things Are	Luke Combs	1761
41	On My Mama	Victoria Monet	1713
42	The Painter	Cody Johnson	1703
43	Jingle Bell Rock	Bobby Helms	1694
44	Used To Be Young	Miley Cyrus	1689
45	Wild Ones	Jessie Murph & Jelly Roll	1632
46	Everybody	Nicki Minaj ft. Lil Uzi Vert	1617
47	Last Christmas	Wham!	1586
48	World On Fire	Nate Smith	1583
49	Yes, And?	Ariana Grande	1570
50	Fast Car	Tracy Chapman	1538
51	Strangers	Kenya Grace	1439
52	A Holly Jolly Christmas	Burl Ives	1435
53	Yeah!	Usher ft. Lil Jon & Ludacris	1432
54	Truck Bed	HARDY	1336
55	Exes	Tate McRae	1261
56	It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year	Andy Williams	1230
57	500lbs	Lil Tecca	1222
58	Harley Quinn	Fuerza Regida & Marshmello	1213
59	FTCU	Nicki Minaj	1182
60	Get Him Back!	Olivia Rodrigo	1157
61	Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow!	Dean Martin	1121
62	You Broke My Heart	Drake	1120
63	I Know ?	Travis Scott	1103
64	Sleigh Ride	The Ronettes	1094
65	Surround Sound	JID ft. 21 Savage & Baby Tate	1088
66	Feliz Navidad	Jose Feliciano	1071
67	Burn It Down	Parker McCollum	1042
68	Made For Me	Muni Long	972
69	Feather	Sabrina Carpenter	971
70	Underneath The Tree	Kelly Clarkson	967
71	Fuk Sumn	¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign	963
72	Standing Next To You	Jung Kook	961
73	The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You)	Nat "King" Cole	961
74	Virginia Beach	Drake	957
75	Santa Tell Me	Ariana Grande	956
76	Perro Negro	Bad Bunny & Feid	954
77	Back To Me	¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign	942
78	Kill Bill	SZA	940
79	Forever	Noah Kahan	929
80	Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	877
81	Selfish	Justin Timberlake	848
82	Talking	¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign ft. North West	821
83	White Christmas	Bing Crosby With Ken Darby Singers & John Scott Trotter & His Orchestra	797
84	Dial Drunk	Noah Kahan With Post Malone	797
85	Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)	Darlene Love	792
86	Jingle Bells	Frank Sinatra With The Orchestra & Chorus Of Gordon Jenkins	780
87	Qlona	Karol G & Peso Pluma	768
88	Can't Catch Me Now	Olivia Rodrigo	738
89	Deck The Halls	Nat King Cole	731
90	La Victima	Xavi	726
91	Bad Idea Right?	Olivia Rodrigo	721
92	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Michael Buble	718
93	Great Gatsby	Rod Wave	717
94	Blue Christmas	Elvis Presley	714
95	Segun Quien	Maluma & Carin Leon	701
96	Que Onda	Calle 24 x Chino Pacas x Fuerza Regida	691
97	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Perry Como And The Fontane Sisters With Mitchell Ayres And His Orchestra	688
98	Hey Driver	Zach Bryan ft. The War And Treaty	686
99	What It Is (Block Boy)	Doechii ft. Kodak Black	678
100	Here Comes Santa Claus (Right Down Santa Claus Lane)	Gene Autry	671

Carnival is likely to plummet next week, while Texas Hold 'Em is expected to rise to #1. That ought to be enough to project Beyonce into the year-end top 10, again especially true if radio picks up on this banger.

x.com/talkofthecharts/status/1760515100560249299?s=46 Actually carnival is expected to stay in its position. I hate the song but unfortunately it isn’t gonna collapse

[PositivityMaster48]

Week 13:
x.com/austinrioux3/status/1760862521924497575?s=46&t=ngsT-XQzTiQibhDKlUBp5A

[puwrpler04]

This would be the Year End if the Charts started on The week of November 25th (like it should of)

Likely think the cutoff would go back to 120,000 if this happened because of less returning entries
* Means still charting
Only counted songs that Charted From November 4-18 and songs after that have locked

Any Thoughts?

*Lovin On Me (3324)
*Cruel Summer (2751)
*Greedy (2352)
*Paint The Town Red (2333)
*I Remember Everything (2291)
*Snooze (2220)
*Water (1964)
*Last Night (1945)
All I Want For Christmas Is You (1927)
*Fast Car (1901)
*Agora Hills (1895)
*Thinkin Bout Me (1870)
Rockin Around The Christmas Tree (1823)
*Lose Control (1778)
*Is It Over Now (1690)
Jingle Bell Rock (1675)
Last Christmas (1615)
*Stick Season (1551)
*Rich Baby Daddy (1504)
A Holly Jolly Christmas (1466)
*First Person Shooter (1406)
White Horse (1342)
*What Was I Made For? (1333)
Lil Boo Thang (1328)
*Houdini (1287)
*Good Good (1245)
*Need A Favor (1215)
Fukumean (1153)
*Pretty Little Poision (1142)
*Vampire (1126)
*IDGAF (1113)
*World On Fire (1101)
*Monaco (1100)
My Love Mine All Mine (1088)
*On My Mama (1064)
*Save Me (1056)
*Wild Ones (1053)
*Flowers (1017)
Used To Be Young (983)
*Truck Bed (962)
*Dance The Night (904)
*The Painter (904)
*Burn It Down (768)

[whaleblubber]

Week 19 - March 2, 2024
LOCKED FOR TOP 25 (2 songs)
*Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer
Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me

LOCKED FOR TOP 50 (10 songs)
*Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red
*SZA - Snooze
*Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything
Tate McRae - Greedy
*Morgan Wallen - Last Night
*Luke Combs - Fast Car
*Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me
Tyla - Water
Doja Cat - Agora Hills
Taylor Swift - Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]

LOCKED FOR TOP 100 (28 songs)
*Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You
*Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree
*Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock
*Wham! - Last Christmas
*Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas
Drake feat. Sexyy Red & SZA - Rich Baby Daddy
Drake feat. J. Cole - First Person Shooter
Paul Russell - Lil Boo Thang
Drake feat. Yeat - IDGAF
Teddy Swims - Lose Control
Chris Stapleton - White Horse
Miley Cyrus - Used To Be Young
*Gunna - Fukumean
Bad Bunny - Monaco
Noah Kahan - Stick Season
*Jelly Roll - Need A Favor
*Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For?
Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage - Good Good
*Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire
Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine
Jelly Roll feat. Lainey Wilson - Save Me
Warren Zeiders - Pretty Little Poison
*Miley Cyrus - Flowers
Dua Lipa - Houdini
Victoria Monét - On My Mama
Jessie Murph feat. Jelly Roll - Wild Ones
*Dua Lipa - Dance The Night
Nate Smith - World On Fire

First YE hit for Jessie Murph and Nate Smith.
We also get a record-extending 18th repeat with Dance The Night-- barring TikTok dredging out some random 2006 hit this should be the last repeat on the YE.

[whaleblubber]

In other news, Lovin On Me is predicted to pass Cruel Summer in points and become the new building YE #1 next week.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 19}1 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 5528
2 Lovin on Me (Jack Harlow) 5019
3 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 4364
4 Snooze (SZA) 4286
5 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 4241
6 Greedy (Tate McRae) 4079
7 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 3251
8 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 3212
9 Lose Control (Teddy Swims) 3129
10 Water (Tyla) 3055
11 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 3036
12 Is It Over Now? (Taylor Swift) 2994
13 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 2980
14 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 2465.4
15 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 2388
16 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 2242.4
17 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2234
18 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 2152.6
19 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 2083
20 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 2079
21 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 2050.8
22 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 2040
23 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 2007
24 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 1994.4
25 Fukumean (Gunna) 1958
26 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 1957
27 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 1954.2
28 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 1936
29 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 1870.8
30 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1817
31 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 1804
32 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 1762
33 Houdini (Dua Lipa) 1761.6
34 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1735
35 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 1726
36 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 1683
37 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 1678
38 World on Fire (Nate Smith) 1614.2
39 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1595
40 Used to Be Young (Miley Cyrus) 1574.8
41 Truck Bed (HARDY) 1555.8
42 The Painter (Cody Johnson) 1497.6
43 Strangers (Kenya Grace) 1419.6
44 Everybody (Nicki Minaj/Lil Uzi Vert) 1312
45 Burn It Down (Parker McCollum) 1312
46 Exes (Tate McRae) 1309.2
47 500lbs (Lil Tecca) 1298
48 Harley Quinn (Fuerza Regida/Marshmello) 1281.6
49 Standing Next to You (Jung Kook) 1279
50 Where the Wild Things Are (Luke Combs) 1276.2
51 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1267
52 Beautiful Things (Benson Boone) 1262
53 Yes, And? (Ariana Grande) 1249
54 La Diabla (Xavi) 1217.6
55 You Broke My Heart (Drake) 1207.8
56 FTCU (Nicki Minaj) 1198.8
57 Surround Sound (JID/21 Savage/Baby Tate) 1197
58 Get Him Back! (Olivia Rodrigo) 1194.4
59 Perro Negro (Bad Bunny/Feid) 1174.8
60 Redrum (21 Savage) 1149
61 Never Lose Me (Flo Milli) 1143.8
62 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 1101
63 Virginia Beach (Drake) 1072.8
64 Feather (Sabrina Carpenter) 1038.4
65 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 1038
66 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 1019
67 I Know ? (Travis Scott) 1018.8
68 Que Onda (Calle 24/Chino Pacas/Fuerza Regida) 1004
69 Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor Swift) 958.6
70 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 942
71 Segun Quien (Maluma/Carin Leon) 921.6
72 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 921
73 Santa Tell Me (Ariana Grande) 916
74 Great Gatsby (Rod Wave) 889.2
75 Qlona (Karol G/Peso Pluma) 887.4
76 Kill Bill (SZA) 876
77 Hey Driver (Zach Bryan/The War and Treaty) 864.4
78 Can't Catch Me Now (Olivia Rodrigo) 844.8
79 La Victima (Xavi) 826.4
80 Save Me the Trouble (Dan + Shay) 807
81 Bad Idea Right? (Olivia Rodrigo) 799.4
82 Slime You Out (Drake/SZA) 767.2
83 Bellakeo (Peso Pluma/Anitta)
84 Northern Attitude (Noah Kahan/Hozier)
85 El Amor De Su Vida (Grupo Frontera/Grupo Firme) 752
86 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 750
87 Dial Drunk (Noah Kahan/Post Malone) 747
88 Hiss (Megan Thee Stallion) 739.6
89 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) (Darlene Love) 734
90 Different 'Round Here (Riley Green/Luke Combs) 734
91 Texas Hold 'Em (Beyonce) 729
92 Rich Men North of Richmond (Oliver Anthony Music) 724.4
93 Jingle Bells (Frank Sinatra) 706
94 Can't Have Mine (Dylan Scott) 695.2
95 Soak City (Do It) (310babii) 684.8
96 Deck the Halls (Nat King Cole) 678
97 Man Made a Bar (Morgan Wallen/Eric Church) 678
98 One of the Girls (The Weeknd/JENNIE/Lily Rose Depp) 678
99 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Michael Buble) 668
100 Blue Christmas (Elvis Presley) 662

[Groovy]

Feb 25, 2024 6:30:28 GMT -5 whaleblubber said:

In other news, Lovin On Me is predicted to pass Cruel Summer in points and become the new building YE #1 next week.

Could Texas Hold Em beat it out?

[peachorino]

Feb 27, 2024 15:57:39 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Feb 25, 2024 6:30:28 GMT -5 whaleblubber said:

In other news, Lovin On Me is predicted to pass Cruel Summer in points and become the new building YE #1 next week.

Could Texas Hold Em beat it out?

It's not very likely at this point, mostly thanks to Billboard's nonsensical tracking period giving all of the late 2023 songs such a massive points lead. Even if it pulled an "Old Town Road" and/or had "Last Night" style-longevity, I still don't think it would make it.

[puwrpler04]

Billboard Year End Predictions March Edition
125,000 cutoff for now

Honestly could see the cutoff rise even higher there’s a shot we have 56 songs locked before week 26

Truck Bed 100% Locks Next Week
The Painter 95% One more week at current pace and it essentially locks
Everybody 75% Even if radio drops hard it prolly did just enough to clinch
Exes 100% Radio makes this a lock
Harley Quinn 10% Needs a miracle
FTCU 75 only needs to chart till week 20 to clinch a spot handily
Burn It Down 75% As long as this has a normal country radio run where it slowly climbs then peaks top 2-3 for a month it’ll make it
Where The Wild Things Are 70% Bit concerned radio is dropping this super fast but I think streaming will hold up to make this clinch but it’ll be a lot closer than I thought
Surround Sound 75% Just needs to keep at current pace to clinch
You Broke My Heart 40% If this keeps at current pace it’ll just make the 125,000 cutoff but 1, cutoff could be raised higher and 2 and drop on streaming will hurt a lot even if radio is slowly gaining
La Diabla 95% Streaming would have to dive hard for this to miss
Yes And? 100% Even with this underperforming hard Ari having an album and a shit ton of radio will mean this makes it
Standing Next To You 5% Also needs a miracle
Never Lose Me 90% Even if streaming dumps this it should have enough to make bottom 50
Perro Negro 5% needs to buck recurrency and I doubt it will
Redrum 100% This has too much streaming to miss
Feather 80% In great shape to make it with streaming and radio up
Beautiful Things 100% Will be huge unfortunately
La Victima 40% needs a streaming bump to be a real threat



Top 50 Predictions
Cutoff 220,000
To make this not as long here’s all the songs with no shot of top 50
World On Fire
Dance The Night
On My Mama
Flowers
Wild Ones
Monaco
IDGAF
Vampire
Good Good
First Person Shooter


Pretty Little Poision 50% With how good the streaming is this has a legit shot
Houdini 60% Up in all channels and Dua has a album to help
Save Me 30% Depends on how much Pop Radio wants to pick this up
What Was I Made For 40% Now in decline in all channels but might be able to stick around long enough to make it
Stick Season 100% Will lock in 2-3 Weeks
Rich Baby Daddy 75% It’s very close I think it just makes it
Lose Control 100% Lock next week

Future Hits

Texas Hold Em
Carnival
Made For Me
Training Session
Selfish
Praise Jah In The Moonlight
Get In With Me
Man Made A Bar
One Of The Girls
23
Murder On The Dance Floor
Wild Flowers And Wild Horses
Where It Ends
Think I’m In Love With You

[neel]

Jack’s pretty much expected to have the #1 song of 2024.

[PositivityMaster48]

Week 14:
x.com/austinrioux3/status/1763555557515165766?s=46&t=ngsT-XQzTiQibhDKlUBp5A

[scrohr424]

Feb 27, 2024 17:47:51 GMT -5 puwrpler04 said:

Billboard Year End Predictions March Edition
125,000 cutoff for now

Honestly could see the cutoff rise even higher there’s a shot we have 56 songs locked before week 26

Everybody 75% Even if radio drops hard it prolly did just enough to clinch
Yuck.
Exes 100% Radio makes this a lock
Yep. This one has lingered around long enough to where it'll likely be in the bottom 30 or so barring a bigger surge
You Broke My Heart 40% If this keeps at current pace it’ll just make the 125,000 cutoff but 1, cutoff could be raised higher and 2 and drop on streaming will hurt a lot even if radio is slowly gaining
I noticed this one jumped up but only because of Kanye's album songs falling. Think it's a coin flip
Feather 80% In great shape to make it with streaming and radio up
I honestly didn't even notice this one was jumping. Maybe just because its predecessor never peaked too high and fell short of last year's YE

Top 50 Predictions
Cutoff 220,000
Save Me 30% Depends on how much Pop Radio wants to pick this up
Eh. Think this one had too many weeks in 2023 for it to stick around that long. It's not much longer for the chart
What Was I Made For 40% Now in decline in all channels but might be able to stick around long enough to make it
This one has dropped rather slowly, and since she'll be performing it at the Oscars that's sure to help it.
Stick Season 100% Will lock in 2-3 Weeks
Fine with me.
Rich Baby Daddy 75% It’s very close I think it just makes it
Bleh.
Lose Control 100% Lock next week
No surprise there.

Also it's honestly insane that the favorite to be the #1 song of the year is by a white rapper where he at one point compares himself to Girardo and the main villain from Shrek. As if this year wasn't already weird enough.

[whaleblubber]

Week 20 - March 9, 2024
LOCKED FOR TOP 25 (2 songs)
*Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer
Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me

LOCKED FOR TOP 50 (11 songs)
*Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red
*SZA - Snooze
*Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything
Tate McRae - Greedy
*Morgan Wallen - Last Night
*Luke Combs - Fast Car
*Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me
Tyla - Water
Doja Cat - Agora Hills
Taylor Swift - Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]
Teddy Swims - Lose Control

LOCKED FOR TOP 100 (28 songs)
*Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You
*Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree
*Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock
*Wham! - Last Christmas
*Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas
Drake feat. Sexyy Red & SZA - Rich Baby Daddy
Drake feat. J. Cole - First Person Shooter
Paul Russell - Lil Boo Thang
Drake feat. Yeat - IDGAF
Chris Stapleton - White Horse
Miley Cyrus - Used To Be Young
*Gunna - Fukumean
Bad Bunny - Monaco
Noah Kahan - Stick Season
*Jelly Roll - Need A Favor
*Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For?
Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage - Good Good
*Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire
Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine
Jelly Roll feat. Lainey Wilson - Save Me
Warren Zeiders - Pretty Little Poison
*Miley Cyrus - Flowers
Dua Lipa - Houdini
Victoria Monét - On My Mama
Jessie Murph feat. Jelly Roll - Wild Ones
*Dua Lipa - Dance The Night
Nate Smith - World On Fire
HARDY - Truck Bed