Britney Spears "Me Against The Music" Predictions

[radiorules]

j said:

Yeah, and I also suggest that people stop using their personal listening habits to make claims about national spin trends At least, check Mediabase to see whether your Pop station is really decreasing spins for the song before suggesting that it was because you'll just end up looking dumb. (Thank you JCMF3 for pointing that out.)
?

It shows how much you know shadowblue

Detroit-WKQI
35 27 BRITNEY SPEARS Me Against The Music 19 14 5 0.3838

Detroit-WDRQ
18 13 BRITNEY SPEARS Me Against The Music 37 31 6 0.6371

Now look back at what JCMF3 posted yesterday about the Detroit playlist

Bite me. What i said was the truth, i have been hearing the song less, that's because THEY ARE PLAYING IT LESS where i live. I never said anything about national airplay.

And as for your original question about why it's being played more than "Slave", M-A-D-O-N-N-A.

[radiorules]

Also, its funny how Britney fans always use "The Blacklisting" thing as an excuse for the "Britney" era, yet they totally forgot about the floppy performances of "Stronger" and "Don't Let Me Be The Last To Know".

[WhySoSerious?]

Back on topic:

Ryan's question is valid. I think JCMF3's response is about right. Perhaps Pop stations are really trying to re-embrace their core audience and creating their own hits rather than just taking them from other formats. This pairing up of two of the biggest female pop stars gives them the perfect opportunity.

I'm amazed that the song currently sits at the peak position of IAS4U with a bullet of over 1900.

[Bcacb]

radiorules said:

Also, its funny how Britney fans always use "The Blacklisting" thing as an excuse for the "Britney" era, yet they totally forgot about the floppy performances of "Stronger" and "Don't Let Me Be The Last To Know".

Well, those two songs weren't as strong as "Oops!... I Did It Again" or "Lucky." They were the latter singles of the "Oops!" album so of course they probably won't perform as well as the first two singles. How high did those songs peak anyways?

radiorules - you seem to be in some sort of denial that the blacklisting DIDN'T occur when there's proof that it has. Leafstorm pretty much summed it up.

I honestly don't think Madonna has THAT big of an impact on the song either. Lots of people say they don't even like her part. She's also kind of in a low spot in her career so if anything, Britney might be bringing Madonna back into the limelight ;).

Thanks,
Ben

[radiorules]

Well i am glad this song is doing well, i would like to see it go top ten, i'll wait a couple more days before changing my prediction in case it pulls a DAD on us.

[radiorules]

Bcacb said:

Well, those two songs weren't as strong as "Oops!... I Did It Again" or "Lucky." They were the latter singles of the "Oops!" album so of course they probably won't perform as well as the first two singles. How high did those songs peak anyways?

radiorules - you seem to be in some sort of denial that the blacklisting DIDN'T occur when there's proof that it has. Leafstorm pretty much summed it up.

I honestly don't think Madonna has THAT big of an impact on the song either. Lots of people say they don't even like her part. She's also kind of in a low spot in her career so if anything, Britney might be bringing Madonna back into the limelight ;).

Thanks,
Ben

There might be "proof" that Britney got black listed but there is also "proof" that she had flops before the blacklisting, Stronger peaked at #14 (Crazy Peaked at #4) and DLMBTLTK peaked at #26(FTBOMBK peaked at #15).

I honestly think both of them are using each other equally. Britney needed Madonna on this song and needed that VMA performance because she hasn't done anything with her career for over a year, and Madonna needed both of them because her album flopped and her singles flopped as well. I honestly don't know how well it's working for the single, because it is going to outpeak Slave, but then again it could do exactly what DAD did, skyrocket in the first five weeks, and then plummet in the next five. Or it could simply be a top ten hit with a fast rise/slow fall, we'll see.

[Zander]

Yeah I think they are each helping the other on this one. I think if the song was just Britney it would be doing okay, but not this good. And Madonna needs to publicity and to appeal to younger listeners because they don't even appreciate her amazing 80's material.

[kingLUKE22]

I'm anxious to see what the video premier on the 20th does to this song, if anything. If in fact the song was thinking about losing airplay or slowing down, I think the video will prevent that from happening. Should be pretty good based on what I've read about the theme.

[j]

radiorules said:

There might be "proof" that Britney got black listed but there is also "proof" that she had flops before the blacklisting, Stronger peaked at #14 (Crazy Peaked at #4) and DLMBTLTK peaked at #26(FTBOMBK peaked at #15).

But your examples of flops aren't first singles. In general first singles are less likely to flop than later singles because of the hype surrounding it. Slave was the first Britney first single to flop, her previous 2 first singles went to #1. Her 4th first single is currently on par with her first 2 first singles, but it remains to be seen where it'll eventually peak.

[atomicaloud]

I think this could go top 3 on the hot 100.

[Ragin]

I don't get it by any means, but this is obviously a monster hit. Top 20 already???? If it was going to slow down because of being a weak song (even though I think it is) it would have by now. This will shoot straight to #1, and I wish I could prove it, but I'd bet you there is TONS of cash behind this one for it to rise this fast.

[krazymack]

cant wait to see this at number 1.

I highly agree with atomicaloud. He is right, I have a strong gut feeling that Britney will go to #1 with "Me Against the Music," for multiple weeks on the pop chart. I think it'll be a CHR/Pop chart topper of hers since "Oops...I Did It Again," in 2000.

I can see many pop stations around the country giving it 100+ spins per week, in the next couple of weeks. It has such an outstanding radio friendly sound.

[atomicaloud]

thanx ur the 1st person ever to agree with me.

I am very confident it will go to number one.

[Castlevania]

krazymack said:

I highly agree with atomicaloud. He is right, I have a strong gut feeling that Britney will go to #1 with "Me Against the Music," for multiple weeks on the pop chart. I think it'll be a CHR/Pop chart topper of hers since "Oops...I Did It Again," in 2000.

I can see many pop stations around the country giving it 100+ spins per week, in the next couple of weeks. It has such an outstanding radio friendly sound.

If you would of said that after I first heard the track I would of said you were from another planet. But now...this song really does have a good sound to it. It may not be your traditional pop song but it definitely has something to it that makes you want to hear it. I am ashamed that I predicted #27 for the peak of this song. It looks like this very well may go right to #1 and to tell you the truth, this girl really deserves it after all the flops she had

[irice22]

DLMBTLTK peaked at #36, not #26 I believe.

[allow that]

I was kind of disappointed in this the first time I heard it too. I was expecting so much more.

Now I love the song. I can't stop listening to it. I'll say already that it's my 3rd favorite Brit song ever, only after "Born To Make You Hapy" and "BOMT." Something about this just really caught on with me.

And yeah, the "Hey Britney" lines are corny... but so what? They're also fun... and I think the cheese factor there is intentional and one of my favorite things about the song.

[matm2004]

I think my original prediction was somewhere around #14, but I'll change that to #8 for now. I am really surprised it hasn't slowed down dramatically yet. But it could get to #12 by sunday night's update...which flabergasts me...haha. Anyways, I'm just going to be pessimistic and predict #8.

[Bcacb]

Jersey said:

I was kind of disappointed in this the first time I heard it too. I was expecting so much more.

Now I love the song. I can't stop listening to it. I'll say already that it's my 3rd favorite Brit song ever, only after "Born To Make You Hapy" and "BOMT." Something about this just really caught on with me.

And yeah, the "Hey Britney" lines are corny... but so what? They're also fun... and I think the cheese factor there is intentional and one of my favorite things about the song.

Yeah, the lines are corny but there's something about them that's "hooky" and you already know it by the third listen so you can sing along with that part.

Thanks,
Ben

[radiorules]

the lyrics to this song in general are all cheese, it's the way they sing it and the way the beat sounds is what makes this song hooky.

[FriendsFan]

radiorules said:

the lyrics to this song in general are all cheese, it's the way they sing it and the way the beat sounds is what makes this song hooky.

Exactly. Jennifer Lopez's "Jenny From The Block" is like that too. Corny, but catchy.

[laguy03]

This song debuted at #50 on the Hot 100. Kind of impressive

[atomicaloud]

That is very impressive which it climb more next week.

[JCMF3]

radiorules said:

Detroit-WKQI
35 27 BRITNEY SPEARS Me Against The Music 19 14 5 0.3838

Detroit-WDRQ
18 13 BRITNEY SPEARS Me Against The Music 37 31 6 0.6371

Now look back at what JCMF3 posted yesterday about the Detroit playlist

Bite me. What i said was the truth, i have been hearing the song less, that's because THEY ARE PLAYING IT LESS where i live. I never said anything about national airplay.

So a GAIN of 1 spin on one station and a LOSS of 2 spins on the other - yeah, that is SO much less...

And you did imply national airply trends because you made predictions of Britney's gains for the next two weeks AND used your case of listening to ONE radio station as saying that the hype (which is a nationwide term) was dying down. If you want to count a net loss of 1 spin on Detroit stations as a loss of hype, you are definitely reading too much into it and need to rationalize your arguments more.

That's like me saying that "Here Without You" losing 5 spins on a Denver station means that the song is going to plummet soon...

At least look back on your previous posts before trying to defend yourself. It would certainly help out your case and not make you sound like some angry, raving person.

[radiorules]

whatever the case is JCMF3, the song has fallen to +1600. Will this trend continue? We'll see. I am actually surprised her audience impression is not picking up that much, at one point last week she peaked at #11 in audience impression, now it's #12 after falling back to #15.

[j]

I fully support JCMF3's use of the roll-eyes smileys on both counts in his last post.

And radiosucks, sure, lose the spin count argument and then immediately try to start an audience impressions argument.

I have to repeat Jersey Boy's post post IN SIMPLE WORDS this time and hopefully you might get it.

WHTZ in NY played it every hour on the first day of its release. 8 days later, when those spins are no longer counted in its 7-day rolling total, OBVIOUSLY audience impressions fell significantly because WHTZ's audience is huge. And now the audience impression is going back up.

I don't know how anyone can admit that her audience impressions went up from #15 to #12 and at the same time claim her audience impressions isn't going up significantly. What, you expected her to jump 5 spots every single day in terms of audience ranking?

[singingsparrow]

You can tell a LOT about a singles future potential just by looking at the audience numbers and ratio.

Despite "Me Against The Music" now clearing out the format and being played on all 126 CHR/Pop stations, the audience has only increased slightly, with audience impression far less linear.

With this in mind, I wouldn't be suprised to see "Me Against The Music" slow down heavily just like "Trouble". By next Wednesday, there is reason to believe her gains will diminish to +650-750 or so.

As I have mentioned elsewhere here, it may have only taken two weeks for Britney Spears to make the Top 20 here, but longevity matters just as much as racing to the top and usually, the turtle wins the race. Simple as that.

I seriously believe "Me Against The Music" will make the Top 10, but I also believe when the single goes into its eighth or ninth week, it is going to become diagnosed with "Good Charlotte Syndrome" and lose its bullet and experience -1000+ losses. It will fall just as fast as it went up the chart and become a weak and forgotten recurrent. I can also bravely predict "Me Against The Music" will only have a 13 or 14-week chart run.

If Britney Spears is expecting to make at least another quadruple-platinum effort, she is going to need a single that rises slower and maintains more longevity.

My Prediction: #7 Peak, but massive decline.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[atomicaloud]

hmmmmm ??? ???

[j]

SingingSparrow said:

You can tell a LOT about a singles future potential just by looking at the audience numbers and ratio.

Despite "Me Against The Music" now clearing out the format and being played on all 126 CHR/Pop stations, the audience has only increased slightly, with audience impression far less linear.

With this in mind, I wouldn't be suprised to see "Me Against The Music" slow down heavily just like "Trouble". By next Wednesday, there is reason to believe her gains will diminish to +650-750 or so.

You never provided a reason as to why a slow increase in audience will cause a song to slow down heavily. Because you can't, really. I'm not convinced at all that the two are correlated in any way.

Furthermore, no one expects her to maintain a bullet of +2000 for 2 consecutive weeks. I don't think that has happened in recent years, if not ever. (Maybe 'N Sync's Pop). The current +1600 bullet is not surprising, and the fact that the size of the bullet will continue to fall is also not prediction that's going out on a limb.

If Britney Spears is expecting to make at least another quadruple-platinum effort, she is going to need a single that rises slower and maintains more longevity.

My Prediction: #7 Peak, but massive decline.

Nah, I think she get a 4x platinum album because her first single is a success. I probably won't buy it like I bought the first 3 tho, so she has 1 more copy to sell to make the 4 million mark.

And it's a no-brainer that this song will fast when it does fall. No one disputes that. It's that type of song.

[ted11804]

It will fall just as fast as it went up the chart and become a weak and forgotten recurrent. I can also bravely predict "Me Against The Music" will only have a 13 or 14-week chart run.

How would it become recurrent if it only spends 13-14 weeks on the chart? I think it will spend 16-17.....it won't plummet THAT fast.

[irice22]

That's like me saying that "Here Without You" losing 5 spins on a Denver station means that the song is going to plummet soon...

Yeah, why does Denver hate "Here without You"?

Anyway, I don't like this whole "the song will..." thing. No one has any proof. I think it will go to top ten, but will plummet quickly, but it's not like it will because it gained like thirteen in Denver.