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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jun 28, 2007 21:54:54 GMT -5
Actually, the opposition I posed was "adult alternative" versus "mainstream," whereby "adult alternative" refers to artists that appeal to what is stereotyped as the Starbucks demo -- sophisticated adult contemporary music listeners who gravitate towards the likes of Norah Jones and John Legend. Amy Winehouse appeals to the same demo (among others, of course), in my view. As far as sales go, I think that once an artist has achieved a certain level of sales (probably a million in scans or so), NARAS isn't too concerned about who has sold more than whom unless the artist has completely taken a genre by storm (as Carrie did last year).
Obviously, things can change. At this time last year, James Blunt was widely thought to have the BNA race sewn up, and if anyone had asked me, I wouldn't have thought it likely that Carrie would get nominated for BNA, let alone be win it. But Blunt was fading by this time last year, while Amy Winehouse's buzz is getting hotter and hotter still. The "Rehab"/"Crazy" analogy is a great one, too -- Winehouse is a fashionable pick.
I have some vague recollection that this year's BMAs won't even be televised; that may dilute their impact (though perhaps not). In any case, I don't think it was having Billboard's top-selling album or winning the AMA for Breakthrough Artist that boosted Carrie's campaign nearly as much as her CMA Female Vocalist win and the fact that she was accumulating artistry awards on top of airplay/sales-based awards. The snowball effect depended on there being a major merit component to the awards that Carrie won last year, which her ACM and CMA wins provided. Those wins also sealed the "story of the year in her genre" aspect that really boosted Carrie's chances, in my view.
Amy Winehouse seems to have that "story of the year" buzz going behind her already -- an explosion built on this throwback soul/blues sound that more and more people caught onto as the year wore on. I think NARAS voters will find that irresistible.
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hotsummer
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Post by hotsummer on Jun 28, 2007 22:11:29 GMT -5
I totally agree that Amy Winehouse has the "buzz" going for her right now. I also agree that this time last year that James Blunt had that "Amy Winehouse buzz". Last year at this time, I NEVER would have thought that Carrie Underwood would have been nominated much less win the Grammy Award for Best New Artist.
However, fast forward 6 months later and there she is with the win. Thus, the reality is who has the buzz June 2007 may not have the buzz in February 2008.
Again many things can happen: new songs released by these artists as well as others that we are not aware of, other Awards including: Billboard, American Music, and People Choice Awards, etc. All of this brings buzz for an artist.
It is who is peaking in the late Fall/early Winter not June 2007.
Again we shall see...
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Rumors
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Post by Rumors on Jun 28, 2007 22:26:55 GMT -5
Do you think NARAS will give BNA to AI contestants two years in a row? I don't especially when there's someone a lot more deserving, Amy Winehouse. I do however that that Daughtery will get nominated. What a crock that will be when the "band" didn't even play on the album.
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blurple
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Post by blurple on Jun 28, 2007 22:30:20 GMT -5
I hope Kelly's Sober has a chance for a Grammy. That song is definitely one of the best of the year IMO (and a performance would be nice too ;)).
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Post by carriefan0209 on Jun 28, 2007 22:43:11 GMT -5
maybe crashed...she might. i wont say no now, but i dont think it has made much impact yet.
dudley, u took the words right out of my mouth! thanks so much..ur a much better summarizer than i am! lol
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hotsummer
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Post by hotsummer on Jun 28, 2007 22:59:11 GMT -5
Since Chris Daughtry wrote or co-wrote the songs on his album and sang all the songs, it really doesn't matter since the vast majority of people introduce him as Chris Daughtry or assume Daughtry is Chris Daughtry. I am sure that SonyBMG will just nominate Chris Daughtry.
It is interesting that Grammy voters will vote for someone who didn't write a thing on their album as a best new artist.
The begs the question, what is this award for? Is the award for vocals? Surely not "creativity" of the best new artist since she didn't actually create anything herself on the album except sing the songs given to her well.
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Post by carriefan0209 on Jun 28, 2007 22:59:20 GMT -5
back to black (maybe) maroon 5 (prolly) whitney (maybe)
idk..im so tired...will think tomorrow lol
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hotsummer
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Post by hotsummer on Jun 28, 2007 23:03:37 GMT -5
"Sober" is a great song. Kelly could be nominated for that song. Too bad that song wasn't released in the Fall. It isn't a Summer song but would definitely work for the Fall and will be in the minds of the Grammy voters at that time.
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Post by pinkfanboy on Jun 28, 2007 23:33:16 GMT -5
"Before He Cheats" by Carrie Underwood Best Country Song and for Best Female Country Vocal Performance. "Lost" by Faith Hill for Best Female Country Vocal Performance. "Teardrops On My Guitar" by Taylor Swift also for Best Female Country Vocal Performance. I don't think "Tim McGraw" was released in time, so TOMG... And "I Wonder" by Kellie Pickler in Best Female Country Vocal Performance.. So glad that "Red High Heels" was released in September and doesn't qualify, that song is trash.. If Faith wins that'll be her third win for that category. She will win... Unless "Wasted" by Carrie Underwood is used instead of BHC, in which I'd rather have that win. Edit: Actually I don't think BHC is eligible for anything because it came out in August according to Wiki. :o :o
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hotsummer
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Post by hotsummer on Jun 29, 2007 0:00:57 GMT -5
SonyBMG will be pushing Daughtry hard for Grammy Awards this year as the way they pushed Carrie Underwood. Clive's speech at the AI finale set the tone by announcing to the music industry that "Daughtry is the breakout star of the entire music industry this year".
Evil Clive Davis will see to it.
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hotsummer
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Post by hotsummer on Jun 29, 2007 0:21:17 GMT -5
Since BHC was released to radio in August 2006, SonyBMG may have already submitted it for Grammy consideration last year along with Carrie's "Jesus Take the Wheel".
I suspect only Carrie's "Wasted" is eligible for a Grammy this year.
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hotsummer
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Post by hotsummer on Jun 29, 2007 7:33:58 GMT -5
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jun 29, 2007 9:23:36 GMT -5
BHC was not submitted in any General Field category or Country field category last year. If you do a search on the board, you can find a link to the list of submissions, at least in the General and Pop fields. "Jesus, Take the Wheel" was submitted in both the relevant General field categories (Song and Record of the Year) and in the relevant Country field categories (Country Song of the Year and Female Country Vocal Performance). NARAS' eligibility rules are full of loopholes, and plenty of songs that technically hit radio outside of the eligibility period have gotten nodded in the past (maybe there's a chart peak argument used to establish eligibility, I don't know).
The question this year as far as BHC is concerned is whether Arista Nashville will submit BHC in the General and/or Country field categories or opt to push the lead single off Carrie's upcoming album to help hype her sophomore effort.
The Country Female Vocal Performance category will likely feature a song by Carrie, perhaps Alison Krauss' "Simple Love" and Martina McBride's "Anyway." The other two slots will, I would guess, be filled by some subset of the following: LeAnn Rimes' "Nothin' Better to Do," Miranda Lambert's "Famous in a Small Town," Taylor Swift's "Teardrops on My Guitar," the best-performing Gretchen Wilson single from her current album, Sara Evans' "As If" and maybe Faith Hill's "Lost," though that would likely be on name alone. NARAS loves Alison Krauss, but NARAS also loves its BNA winners, so it would be a tight race between Carrie and Alison Krauss for the win, I think.
BNA seems to draws on a pretty broad definition of artistry -- vocal ability, interpretive skill and songwriting ability all seem to matter, but so, too, do considerations of longevity and a sort of intangible discovery/excitement factor that the artist generates. Carrie's win is comparable to the wins of LeAnn Rimes and (at the time she won) Christina Aguilera -- it was about embracing an exciting new voice and interpretive singer (both Aguilera and Rimes have developed their songwriting abilities since their wins, and Carrie has evidently been doing the same). In other years, it's the adult-alternative singer-songwriter who gets favored.
In print, online, and now, on the radio, Amy Winehouse has been generating that excitement of discovery, even as her erratic behavior is well-documented and known (heck, it's the basis for her songwriting). Feist has a little something going on, too, with some print support when her album was released (Jon Pareles did a good feature on her in the NYT) and some online buzz. Chrisette Michelle is getting going, as well. I just don't have the sense that Chris Daughtry and his band are taken seriously as discoveries. Obviously, they are taken seriously as commercial factors, but I get the sense that the industry is yawning at their success as a reflection of the power of the AI platform combined with the power of the Nickelback formula (one place you can see this is in Bob Lefsetz's blog). Even Robin Thicke has generated more media excitement over his breakthrough (though his buzz has quieted lately, and it's not clear whether he would be eligible for a BNA nod, anyway).
I don't think James Blunt had Amy Winehouse-like buzz at this time last year -- I think people were already rolling their eyes at "You're Beautiful," but expecting him to take BNA, anyway. By contrast, "Rehab" is just now starting to take off, and should have a pretty good summer run. Good positioning for Grammy nominations and wins, I think.
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Post by carriefan0209 on Jun 29, 2007 9:33:52 GMT -5
dudley......you should write books. i completely agree with you...ah ur like my voice; i dont even have to talk, u say everything i was going to say! ahaha i love u :)
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hotsummer
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Post by hotsummer on Jun 29, 2007 9:40:19 GMT -5
All great points. Not sure why you brought up Robin Thicke though for he isn't a new artist.
The AI platform doesn't always work though as you can see (Kat, Elliott, Kellie, and Taylor are doing well but not nearly as well as Chris Daughtry and they all have their successful counterparts in the music industry).
Well I guess we will have to see. 6 months from now who knows...
I still think that Chris Daughtry will be nominated for BNA but perhaps won't win because of the snobbery of the music industry.
Again if "Humps" can win a Grammy than ANYTHING is possible.
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blurple
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Post by blurple on Jun 29, 2007 10:16:15 GMT -5
I hope Lily generates more buzz to grant her a nom although at this point, she's been overshadowed by Amy... Love both though. Taylor Swift has a good chance of representing Country at the BNA this year.
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Post by carriefan0209 on Jun 29, 2007 10:39:17 GMT -5
idk. taylor swift just annoys me; like, sure she can sing and write, but from what i have seen/heard, her attitude and personality is extremely....pretentious and a bit snobby....
i remember in one interview she basically said anyone from AI doesnt deserve to be in the industry cuz they didnt "work to get there". i hate people who deem AI as an invalid way to gain success because while they didnt "struggle" for years and years trying to land gigs, they were put under the most intense scrutiny imaginable, in front of 30 million+ people, for more than 10 weeks. talk about PRESSURE!
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Post by when the pawn... on Jun 29, 2007 10:45:20 GMT -5
carrie cowrote i aint in chekotah anymore. and she is writing 5-7 songs for her upcoming album. just because you dont write songs for your DEBUT cd doesnt mean ur not original!!!!! Writing songs doesn't necessarily make you orginial either.
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Post by carriefan0209 on Jun 29, 2007 23:58:34 GMT -5
i never said it does...but we were talkin about how carrie doesnt write songs....
anyways, does anyone think 'oh love' has a chance at somethin like coutnry duet of the year?
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Post by pinkfanboy on Jun 30, 2007 0:17:11 GMT -5
"The Neighbor" by Dixie Chicks for Best Country Performance by a Duo or Group with Vocal. I'd say Best Country Song too, but I don't want it to lose.
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hotsummer
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Post by hotsummer on Jun 30, 2007 9:18:16 GMT -5
Possible Nominations for Best New Artist
1. Amy Winehouse
2. Lilly Allen
3. Daughtry (representing Rock)
4. Taylor Swift (representing Country)
5. Matt Kearney
I have changed my mind. I think that Amy Winehouse is a shoo-in for the win for Best New Artist and may actually do a "Norah Jones" and win across the board in many categories including Best Album of the Year.
Robin Thicke is not eligible for this category for this is his sophomore album released in the United States thus he isn't a "new artist". "Back to Black" is Amy's sophomore album as well but her debut wasn't released in the U.S. thus she is eligible.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Jun 30, 2007 9:33:02 GMT -5
I believe tha any artist that never received a nomination, is eligible for a BNA nod, so Robin has a chance. He would be next year, Imogen Heap. lol Artists have to have never been nominated, and the other part of the rule is the subjective one about it being the year they make an impression or whatever. Robin would qualify in that sense.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jun 30, 2007 9:49:31 GMT -5
"The Neighbor" by Dixie Chicks for Best Country Performance by a Duo or Group with Vocal. Ooh, that would be cool! As jenglisbe says, BNA eligibility is -not- determined by prior releases in the US. BNA eligibility is determined by this very vague rule that the category can include any artist "who releases, during the eligibility year, the first recording which establishes the public identity of that artist.". That's why Shelby Lynne was deemed eligible to be nominated for Best New Artist in 2001 after releasing 6 albums (she won that year, too). That's why Fountains of Wayne was nominated in 2003 for BNA after releasing its 3rd album. Robin Thicke is on his 2nd album, but NARAS may well decide that The Evolution of Robin Thicke is the recording that established his public identity. He would be ineligible, though, if he had won a Grammy before. I think his bio refers to his Grammy-winning work (was it writing for Usher?), but he doesn't show up in the Grammy or AMG database as a Grammy winner, so I don't know if he is eligible or not. There is usually one totally left-field (but cool) nominee in the BNA category. Imogen Heap had that slot this past year (she was another whose "newness" was questioned). Feist could take that slot this year. Album of the Year nominees? Paul McCartney's Memory Almost Full has garnered strong notices, but won't have a major label campaign behind it. But it's an album that seems totally NARAS' speed. Amy Winehouse's Back to Black seems a likely choice, as carriefan0209 suggests. Could Aretha Franklin's duets album contend, assuming it does get released in September? I think it's supposed to make it out by the Grammy deadline. Kanye West's Graduation will be one to watch as well, I would think. John Legend's Once Again probably hasn't made enough of an impact. I guess Maroon 5 could make it in if subsequent singles impact.
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hotsummer
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Post by hotsummer on Jun 30, 2007 10:10:15 GMT -5
Since Robin Thicke had a "relative" hit in the United States in 2002 with the song "When I Get You Alone" which was performed by Blake Lewis during Season 6 American Idol, I doubt that Robin Thicke will be considered a "New Artist" even under NARAS' "nebulous" rules. However his debut CD "A Beautiful World" flopped on the Billboard charts debuting at number 152.
I remember that video too. Robin Thicke had long hair and was racing through the streets of Manhattan on a bike. I remember seeing that video a lot on MTV and BET.
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OH SNAP!
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Post by OH SNAP! on Jun 30, 2007 13:47:28 GMT -5
Best New Artist Amy Winehouse Daughtry Chrisette Michele Katharine Mcphee Taylor Swift
Album of the Year John Legend "Once Again" Kanye West "Graduation" Amy Winehouse "Back To Black" Paul McCartney "Memory Almost Full" The White Stripes "Icky Thump"
Record of the Year Carrie Underwood "Before He Cheats Amy Winehouse "Rehab" Rihanna w/ Jay-Z "Umbrella" Maroon 5 "Makes Me Wonder" Beyonce "Irreplaceable"
Song of the Year Amy Winehouse "Rehab" Robin Thicke "Lost Without U" John Legend "P.D.A." Beyonce "Irreplaceable" Kanye West "Stronger"
R&B Female Vocal Ciara "Promise" Chrisette Michele "If I Have My Way" Mary J. Blige "We Ride" Fantasia "When I See U" Jennifer Hudson "And I Am Telling You"
R&B Male Vocal Tank "Please Don't Go" Musiq "Teachme" Robin Thicke "Lost Without U" John Legend "P.D.A." Gerald Levert "In My Songs"
R&B Album Robin Thicke "The Evolution Of Robin Thicke" Chrisette Michele "I Am" John Legend "Once Again" Tank "Sex, Love & Pain" Musiq "Luvanmusiq"
Contemporary R&B Album Fantasia "Fantasia" Joss Stone "Introducing Joss Stone" Ciara "The Evolution" Ne-yo "Because Of You" Rihanna "Good Girl Gone Bad"
R&B Record Fantasia "When I See U" Ciara "Like A Boy" Tank "Please Don't Go" Robin Thicke "Lost Without U" John Legend "P.D.A."
Rap Album T.I. "T.I. vs. T.I.P." Jay-Z "Kingdom Come" Nas "Hip Hop Is Dead'' Common "Finding Forever" Kanye West "Graduation"
Rap Song T.I. "Big s**t Poppin'" Kanye West "Stronger" Jay-Z "Show Me What You Got" Nas "Hip Hop Is Dead" Common "The Game"
Rap/Sung Collabo Timbaland w/ Justin Timberlake & Nelly Furtado "Give It To Me" Jay-Z w/ Chrisette Michele "Lost Ones" Rihanna w/ Jay-Z "Umbrella" Diddy w/ Keyshia Cole "Last Night" Lloyd w/ Lil Wayne "You"
Rap Song T.I. "You Know What It Is" Kanye West "Stronger" Fabolous w/ Ne-yo "Make Me Better" Diddy w/ Keyshia Cole "Last Night" Jay-Z "Show Me What You Got"
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LC3
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Post by LC3 on Jun 30, 2007 14:18:04 GMT -5
^Umbrella for record of the year? I dont think it will get that nod...too pop I think to get that recognition...the categorie is usually more diverse than the selection you have listed here....it always seems like there is a song on there that almost nobody knows...Irreplaceable will get some nods for sure though because of its total domination at radio and positive reviews across the board...I like your lists for the most part...oh, and I like seeing Memory Almost Full on there!
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eljefro
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Post by eljefro on Jun 30, 2007 14:59:47 GMT -5
Best New Artist Amy Winehouse Daughtry Chrisette Michele Katharine Mcphee Taylor Swift I agree with these and it will ultimately be between Daughtry and Amy...although Amy has the leg up at the moment with more buzz and she got the RS cover that I'm actually surprised Daughtry has yet to get with his sales...
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hotsummer
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Post by hotsummer on Jun 30, 2007 15:04:33 GMT -5
If Kat's "Love Story" takes off then she may make the list for best new artist. If it doesn't, I doubt it. I think Taylor Swift over Kat McPhee.
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Post by RihannaFAN²=ColdUmbrella! on Jun 30, 2007 15:26:11 GMT -5
rihanna wil probably get that nod because the song is huge(prehaps one of the biggest songs of 07') and is gettin huge airplay and postive reviews just like irreplaceble had,so it could get a nomination for record of the year..
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XXIX
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Post by XXIX on Jun 30, 2007 16:49:09 GMT -5
I think Robin Thicke will get an album nod over John Legend.
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